The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Top 25 Players in the NBA: Jayson Tatum can be the BEST player in the world

Episode Date: August 11, 2023

Jason Timpf continues his ranking of the 25 best players in the NBA, by revealing No. 7, Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum. After averaging 30 points per game last season, there’s no question that Tatum is an elite scorer. At only 25 years old, Jayson Tatum is one of the great young superstars in the league. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volume.

All right, welcome to Hoops tonight here at The Volume. Happy Thursday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great week so far. We are live on Amp. So if you're watching on YouTube, we're listening on the podcast feeds. Don't forget that Amp is the very first place that you guys can get these shows. We are continuing our player rankings today with number seven, Jason Tatum. You guys know the Joe before we get started.

Subscribe to the Volumes. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT, so you guys don't miss any show announcements. And if for whatever reason you miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish, don't forget, you can find them wherever you get your podcasts under hoops tonight. All right, let's talk some basketball. So I was torn between three guys for this spot, Anthony Davis, Joel Embed, and Jason

Tatum. And all three of these guys are very, very different players. And they all have cases to be over each other. for one reason or another, right? Like, Joel Embed is by far the best offensive player in that group in terms of actual shot creation ability, right? Anthony Davis is by far the best defensive player in that group by a massive chasm. And Jason Tatum is the most dependably reliable and productive player of those three guys,

by far, right? And so each of them kind of has a unique case. Anthony Davis had this kind of like revolutionary, playoff run where his defensive ability warped every single playoff series he was in as he dragged that Lakers team from like a very precarious situation in the standings and an injured LeBron to the playoffs and then all the way to the Western Conference finals. Joel Lippe literally is the reigning league MVP. And then again, Jason Tatum another season where he plays 70 plus games, averages a shit ton of points, does it efficiently, just like he always does. So it was a tough call for

me. But I opted for Tatum at 7. We're going to get into the reasons why later, but the gist of it is for me personally, I'm always going to value a player's ceiling or their singular elite skill more than the total package because I think that that translates better to playoff success in the long run. And the important context here surrounding everything we discuss with Jason Tatum today, because he does technically have more playoff success than both Anthony Davis and Joe Alambed in recent seasons, although Anthony Davis is a NBA champion from the bubble, which was an incredible stretch of AD basketball. But the simple fact is that, and you guys know that have listened to the show for a while, I've said this consistently, I think the Boston Celtics

have had easily the most talented roster in the entire NBA over the last two years. And so, you know, again, when it comes to evaluating the playoff success, a lot of, that, that's what's interesting about this Celtics team is they've made the conference finals twice and the NBA finals once in the last three seasons. And as we look at it, like it hasn't been overly impressive all the time. And, you know, as we, a lot of times we come away from those series feeling like the Celtics underachieved in one way or another. There's absolutely no reason in the world they should not have beat the Miami Heat last year, right? Played with their food quite a bit against the Sixers. Somehow managed to go down three, two,

before they hit the Jets and were clearly better. The Atlanta Hawks took them to six. Last year, the Heat had that sequence where Jimmy Butler shooting a pull-up three that could have sent them to the finals and sent the Celtics home early. The Bucks without Chris Middleton and extremely limited in their off-ball shooting, just guarding Janus with three guys every time. And that series went to seven games. Really the only dominant stretch of basketball from Boston in the last couple of years was their sweep of the Brooklyn Nets, which was impressive for the record. And that was when I really came on board with the Celtics defensively, although they haven't been the same team. And so, again, that's the important context as we discussed Tatum today in

terms of his team success. Not undercutting what he's done, but the reality is, with the amount of talent that has been on that roster, you could argue the Celtics have underachieved. And that is a big part of why I have Tatum down at number seven. A quick recap of this season, 30 points, nine rebounds and five assists on 61% true shooting. Again, in parts of today's show, I'm going to be somewhat critical of certain elements of Jason Tatum's game. But when it comes to sheer production, there are very few players in the league that are as consistently available and productive as Jason Tatum is.

As a matter of fact, this is crazy stat. Jason Tatum has scored 5,963 points in the last three regular seasons, which leads the entire NBA. So he is your total points leader over the last three seasons. Luca Donchich was in second place, and Joel Embed was in third place, for those of you who are curious. Some play-type data, not very good compared to his peers. He was below a point per possession in both pick-and-roll and ISO.

0.99 points per possession and pick-and-roll, really just lowered by his own shooting. He only shot 38-5. percent on field goals that he shot out of pick and roll. Watched a bunch of Tatum pick and roll this morning, about 75 clips or so, and just to kind of refresh myself. And really, it's just he takes a lot of really tough shots. When he attacks the rim in pick and roll, he's excellent.

When he passes out of pick and roll, like, I'm always blown away by Jason Tatum's passing. I'd say among, like, the young forwards in the league that kind of have like a scoring archetype, I wouldn't put him as high as Brandon Ingram. I'd probably have him at the top of that list. In terms of the scoring-minded, again, I'm not looking at guys like Luca there. But in terms of that kind of like wing archetype, I'd put Tatum probably second in terms of playmaking in that tier. So I wish he would kind of lean on that a little bit more. But he just took a lot of really, really tough shots.

And we'll get to this when we talk about his shot making later on. But Tatum had a miserable shot making season. That was a big thing that undercut him in a lot of these situations. So, again, almost all of his peers are up over a point per possession in pick and roll, not Jason Tatum. 0.97 points per ISO, once again lowered by his own shooting. When Jason Tatum shot out of isolation situations, he only shot 34.9%. He was very effective in the post, though, this year. 1.23 points per possession, which is like outstanding.

Okay volume. He only did it about a time and a half per game, but he shot really well, 56%. field goals shooting out of the post. Really good face-up jump shot. Regardless of the pivot movie, get to it. He could either turn kind of in a reverse pivot or an over-the-top pivot face, rise up and knock down that, you know,

15-to-18-foot jump shot. Good right-shoulder fades. So when he would turn his back and he'd bump you with his right shoulder, he could get into that fade-away, kind of going over that right shoulder and make it pretty well. Also had some success in face-up situations,

just ripping through to the right and going hard to the basket. So he also, like, in general, I liked how quick and decisive he was out of the post. Doesn't, like, sit and stare for a long time. Just gets the ball and makes a quick decision and goes. And it has a couple of shots that he can count on there that he goes to. He also passed, again, Tatum's passing is always going to be one of the things that's kind of underrated with him. The Celtic scored 36 points on 30 Tatum passes out of the post, which is, again, well over a point per possession.

Again, not a good shot-making season for Tatum. Really good catch-and-shoots. 62% effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers. When he was unguarded, he shot 70% effective field-go percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers. So, like, if he got to really set his rhythm and get to his muscle memory, that shit was going in, the vast majority of the time. But he was 28.6% on pull-up jump shots, according to synergy, which is really, really bad.

Even if you wait it for threes, and again, about 70% of the pull-up jump shots that Jason Tatum took were threes. And still it's just a 40% effective field goal percentage, which again, in pull-up jump shooting, like the minimum allowable for like a good pull-up shooter, in my opinion, is in the high 40s. The best of them are in the 50s, and then Steph obviously breaks the mold and is in the 60s, and I think KD's in the low 60s as well. But 40% is just really bad. I mean, we're talking about a 20% gap in an effective field goal percentage between him and Kevin Durant,

for instance, in regular season pull-up shooting. A big part of that, in my opinion, is, and again, you see it when you watch Tatum, he just takes a lot of really, really tough shots. And as he's kind of cleaned up his shot variety to kind of limit himself to above the break, pull up threes, and going all the way to the rim, it's made him easier to guard, too, and guys are kind of sitting on that shot now, which I think is a big part of why it didn't go in as much. He also shot just 39% on floaters, and he does not have a hook shot out of the post. He made just one all season. He was very good at the rim, though. 4.3 restricted area. per game, which is very good on 70% shooting, which is very good. So a lot, like, as you kind of look at it, he's, like, outstanding in catch and shoot situations and outstanding at the rim, but all of the other shot making stuff is pretty far below where his peers are. And I think that's

one of the main reasons why he can get clunky sometimes in the half court. What does that all add up to? He's pretty average shot creator compared to most of his peers. He's an above average playmaker, below average shot maker. That kind of just comes together for the Tatum half court package. He does bolster his numbers because, again, how do you get to 30 points per game on 61% true shooting if you're just not very good in live dribble shot creation situations? And the truth of the matter is, is when he does have an advantage, he's outrageously good. He was 1.26 points per possession in spot up situations, not just with the dead eye catch and shoot shooting like we talked about earlier. He's also very, very, very.

good at attacking closeouts. There were 30 players in the NBA last year that logged at least 300 spot-up possessions, and Tatum ranked second behind Michael Porter Jr., who's the guy who I always reference as the best at it in the league. So Michael Porter-Jr Jr. is a best spot-up player in the league. Tatum's number two, and that's a big part of why he has the scoring volume and efficiency that he has in catch-and-shoot situations and catch-and-drive situations. He's insane.

He also scored 393 points in transition this year. That was eighth in the entire league. So not only is Jalen Brown one of the best transition weapons in the league, but Jason Tatum himself is one of the best transition weapons in the league. That's a big part of what drives that productivity. So again, if Tatum could figure out the on-ball stuff, he could have some ridiculous scoring and efficiency seasons because he's so good already at the easier parts of the game.

Had a super weird playoff run this year. It was kind of an outlier in a lot of ways. last year his playoff run was more in line with what his regular seasons were like. Outstanding off-ball shooting and outstanding playmaking, but on the ball stuff, the shot making wasn't good. That kind of continued from last year's regular season into the playoffs, into this year's regular season. But then in this postseason, it was bizarre.

His on-ball creation actually went up a level in this postseason. He was 47% effective field goal percentage on pull-up jumpers, which is 7% better than the regular season. made a higher percentage of his floaters. He was over a point per possession and pick and roll and ISOs and post-ups. So he had a randomly good shot creation postseason, but all of his other stuff tanked. His rim finishing tanked.

He shot just 33.8% on catch-and-shoot jumpers. So ironically, it was all the easy stuff this year that abandoned Jason Tatum, which was, again, that kind of tells me that it was probably an outlier. But we'll see as we progress forward into the future. again, Tatum's only 25 years old, and that's a big context thing that we're going to have to keep in mind as we go forward. But, you know, it's funny as we zoom out a little bit, like him and Jalen Brown, they're very different players for the record, right? Like Jalen Brown's way more creative, I think, and some of his shot making stuff, especially in the midrange. Tatum's a better defensive player, a better passer.

You know, I think Jalen Brown has some scoring highs that are higher than Jason Tatum. But the two of them are, they're very different. But they have some similar issues, right? Both of them are absolutely top-tier offensive players when they already have an advantage. They'll kill you in transition. They'll kill you in spot-up situations. Tatum's also like super active off the ball. He set 110 ball screens this year in large part because they would use that to manufacture dribble penetration with the guards, right?

So they'd have it. Derek White or Marcus Smart have the ball. Tatum set a ball screen and slip it. And he would just catch the ball at the foul line and it would start a four on three. and he would just make the passes out of that because he's such a good passer. That was something they used a lot. He was a very good cutter this season.

Tatum made 51 shots running off the screens this year, which was a point per possession. Boston runs a ton of sets where, like, it's five out spacing, right? So you always have two guys in the corner, two guys on the wing and a guy on the top. And Boston will run a lot of these, like, actions for Tatum where, like, the ball will be like on the left wing,

and Tatum will either be on the top with a guy on the wing or Tatum will be on the wing with a guy at the top. And they'll just have that guy at the top screen for Tatum, and he'll come over the top. And Marcus Smart will just hit him on the move. And it'll be like Horford's setting the screen, and Tatum will just attack off the catch. Or if the guy goes way under the screen,

he'll just catch and shoot. And then they'll do the same thing as a flare. So he'll be at the top, and Horford will flare screen for him. And Tatum will just kind of pop over to the wing, and there will be like a quick swing pass for either a quick three or a quick drive-to-close-out type of situation. But Tatum was really good in those situations.

Like I said, made 51 shots this year, a point per possession. But the reality is, is while Tatum and Brown are both awesome, in those situations, they're both below average in live dribble situations against the set defense, pick and rolls, ISOs. When all 10 eyes are staring at them in the half court, both of them are a big level below where their peers are. And I think that's a big part of why their offense looks so clunky at times, especially in big moments, especially in the playoffs. The Celtics lost six games in this year's playoff run involving clutch situations.

So when the score was within five, with five minutes remaining. Again, no team in the NBA this year in the postseason lost more than four in the Celtics, in clutch situations, and the Celtics lost six. In a big part of that was their offense. They had an offensive rating of just 94 in those six losses. That's 30 minutes of clutch basketball in total, and they just could never get their offense going in those situations, in large part, because their two best shot creators are not great at that, specifically.

And that's just something that's going to continue to be a problem until they improve. But I do believe they will improve. We'll get to that a little bit later. A couple of specific issues I've noticed with Jason Tatum's approach offensively that I think lead to some of his half-court issues. First of all, in an effort to become more efficient overall, Jason Tatum has basically cut most of the variety. out of his game. He used to have a ton, it used to be a very high volume post player, used to take a lot

of mid-range jump shots. And, you know, and I understand from an analytics perspective, cutting back on mid-range shooting a certain amount, but he's cut way back on it. Now 70% of his pull-up jumpers are threes, and he's not actually making them at a percentage that's conducive to that particular shot profile. A lot of you guys probably have seen me, like, take screenshots of, of Tatum's shot charts. And, and like, like, the Celtics will lose a game. It'll be clunky offensively. Tatum will struggle. And then you'll look at the shot chart and like, it's a bunch of X's and O's at the, above the break, like at the top of the key and a little bit on the wing. And then a bunch of shots at the rim. And there will be nothing anywhere else on the shot chart.

And that's, it's because he has cut out the post-ups. Like, he's been steadily cutting back on post-ups. 2021. He ran 172. 2022, he ran 165. This year, 135. So for whatever reason, he's steadily removing that from his game, which is bizarre because it's been consistently his most effective play type. He was by far more efficient in post-up situations this year than he wasn't pick and roll in ISO, and he's doing it less than he has since he was basically a kid. So it's confusing to me. He's removed the variety, and he's made himself predictable. And so that's when you hear guys like Caleb Martin and other guys on the heat and other guys around the league be like, we're getting up into Jason Tatum, like ball pressuring him, forcing him to his left, because when he goes left,

he's about, you know, much more likely to take a pull-up jump shot than he is when he goes right. When he goes right, he's far more likely to go all the way to the rim. When he goes left, he's far more likely to take a pull-up jump shot. He probably doesn't want to take a pull-up two, so like we could probably funnel him sideways instead of towards the rim. and then you're just baiting him into one of those really, really tough pull-up threes that he's been missing for the most part in recent seasons, right? So I think that's a big thing for him to work on in the future is just like really simplifying his approach offensively and using his physical advantages. It makes a lot of sense for guys like Damien Lillard and Steph Curry to take a ton of pull-up

threes because that's their ultimate elite top-tier skill. thing that separates them from all their peers, and they don't have the amazing physical tools to bully their way to spots closer to the rim and get higher percentage shots. You're Jason Tatum. You're 6'9, you're built like a truck, and you've got a really good short to mid-range jump shot. Use that. Clear the side more. Work miss mismatches. Work to post more. Add true variety to the way that you're attacking these defenses, don't try to be Damon Steff. That's a waste of your individual skill set. So those are the things that I'd like to see Jason Tatum work on as he heads into his future. So just kind of in summary, I dropped Tatum below AD and Embed for one main reason.

Tatum doesn't really have that elite top-end skill that he can dependably rely on, right? like Anthony Davis has his defensive superpower that literally dominates the focus of every playoff series that he's in. Joel Embed, you throw him the ball at the foul liner on the post, he's like well over a point per possession, like almost a point in a quarter per possession. So he's one of the very best individual shot creators in the league, right? Even the diminished version of Embed in this year's postseason run when he was injured was still well over a point per possession in those situations. Jason Tatum's really good at a lot of things, but he doesn't have that superpower.

He's a good playmaker, but he's not a great one. He's pretty inefficient as a pull-up jump shooter. He's pretty inefficient as a shotmaker in general. He's well below his peers in pick and roll, and in ISO situations. He's a good post-up player, but he doesn't do it enough. He used to be one of the best defenders in the league, but just like the rest of his team, he kind of let go with the rope on that side of the floor, and the whole team declined. Remember those six clutch losses I was talking about earlier?

and the offense was a huge problem there, but the defense was worse. In those six clutch losses in the postseason, the Celtics notched a defensive rating of 145. Obviously, the offense is clunky, and they need to figure that out, but that's not the same Celtics team that was winning in the playoffs last year.

145 defensive rating from a team that allegedly is a defensive identity, or at least used to, that to me was a big problem as well. And I think Tatum and Brown, in particular were the two guys that really relaxed on that side of the floor this year. So as I look at, again, it's a very small gap, and I want to acknowledge Tatum's dependability and his availability and his productivity while he's on the floor, but he's just not truly

unbelievably elite at any one thing on the basketball court. And that I think hurts him in some of the later rounds of the playoffs when he runs into some of these guys that have that level of ability at the very, very top end. And again, I want to be clear, I know that he beat Embed this year, and I thought he had a pretty big moment at Embed's expense, particularly in game seven, just cooking him on switches on the perimeter. But again, the Celtics have a significantly more talented roster. They were heavy, heavy favorites to win that series.

And Joel Embed was playing injured, which we're going to factor in when we get to him. and I struggled with Embed a lot in where to put him on this list as well. But when I really zoomed out and looked at it in a situation where these were all very small gaps, I think that Embed and Anthony Davis's top end in the situations when they are healthy at the right time of year actually gives them a much better chance to lead a team to a championship than Jason Tatum does at this point. But for the record, he is 25 years old and he is impressive. He just had one of his very best offensive half court creation post seasons in his career. Even with all the issues that the Celtics had, it was a better one relative to Tatum's past.

I thought he showed a lot of growth in the second half of that heat series started to kind of demonstrate some of that surgical offensive approach there in games five and six. And it was kind of a bummer because he got hurt in game seven and that prevented him from having an opportunity to close the deal. Missoula give him some better spacing. In general, I thought he showed some growth, but he's got a ways to go. And I still continue to maintain that for the Celtics, their best pathway forward is just betting on Tatum and Brown improving as the years go by.

Again, when Tatum is 28, if he adds the efficiency and the on-ball stuff to go with everything that he does as a guy that can extend advantages and finish plays when other guys get him situation. where he has an advantage. And if he regains his defensive identity that he had from the 2022 postseason, that's where he becomes a candidate to be potentially the best player in the world. And I do think that that's on the table for Tatum in the future. But right now at age 25, which is still impressive,

I have him as the seventh best player in the world. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. I'll see you guys tomorrow for number six. Then we'll head into the weekend. We'll go through 5 through 1 tomorrow. Volume. Another podcast from some SNL, late night comedy. guy not quite on humor me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk

to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at a podcast.

That was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year.

It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.