The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Top 25 Players in the NBA Joel Embiid is the BEST scorer in the NBA

Episode Date: August 16, 2023

Jason Timpf continues to rank his top 25 players in the NBA by getting into his top 5. At No. 5, reigning MVP, and Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid. Despite Embiid’s efficiency plummeting in the playoffs the last few years, he has led the league in scoring in back to back years, and after winning the MVP, is deserving of the number 5 spot. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to.

Listen and learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. The Volume. Welcome to Hoops tonight here at The Volume. Happy Monday, everybody. I hope all of you guys had an incredible weekend. We are live on Amp. So if you're watching on YouTube or listening on the podcast feed, don't forget that Amp is the very first place that you guys can get these shows. We are continuing our player rankings today with number five, the Ramp.

reigning league MVP, Joel M. B. Probably as big a chasm between what his regular season dominance has looked like and his playoff success has looked like, which makes him very polarizing and very difficult to rank. But we're going to get into all of the details of that today. You guys know the drill before we get started.

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So, Joe L&B, this guy moved around on my list more than any other guy in the different variations of it. I've told you guys about this before. But when I made my list, when I first made the 25 to 1, I was really hesitant at the back end of the 25, like right in that like 24, 25 spot. And I spent about two days kind of going back and forth about which guys I wanted to go with there. Once I kind of set that, though, 25 through 11 was pretty much set for me. I knew Devin Booker and Kauai were going to be at the bottom of my superstar tier. But from 10 to 1, even during the weeks when I was working on 25 to 11 in our videos,

I was so all over the place. And Embed in particular was one of the biggest guys that moved around. The very first version of this list that I made, I had Embed down at 10, in large part because he's not my favorite player, probably the player that I dislike the most out of the top 12 superstars in the league. So I knew I was fighting a lot of negative bias on my end. Obviously, you guys know how I feel about the playoffs. But then I'd sit there and I'd be like, I'd remember this season, and I'd remember the competitive that he approached it with from start to finish.

And while everyone else was kind of working their way through it, Embed was just attacking everybody night in and night out. It seemed like he was hell-bent on demonstrating to the world that he was the best basketball player. And honestly, within the regular season context, he did that. If you guys remember, I even at one point put him as, I've always been a guy who viewed Yokic is better than Embed, but there was a point there about two-thirds through the season where I was like,

man, Embedd's playing better than him right now. I think he might be better. And so I tried to remember what that was like. And so then I'd come back around and I'd have him up high on the list. And then I'd sleep on it. And I'd wake up the next morning and I'd be like, nah, screw that. He doesn't deserve any higher than 10. And then like, because it was so polarizing because it's as big a difference, like I said in the intro,

between what his peak is in regular season production and what his playoff success has actually been in reality. That gap has been wider than any of these stars over the quarter. of the last few years. I mean, he's kind of become the new James Hardin in a lot of ways. James Harden has just diminished too much to really be in that conversation. But he's just wildly polarizing in that sense. And so when I think about the good with Embed, I'm incentivized to put him up higher. And when I think about the bad, I'm incentivized to put him lower. And so I was all over the place. And I'll give you guys really quickly my cases for both. So my reasoning for putting him down at 10 was he's the biggest playoff underperformer from this era.

is back-to-back seasons where he led the league in scoring and then couldn't crack 24 points per game in the postseason. And then his defensive effectiveness goes down a level in the postseason as well. You guys might remember last year, the Toronto Raptors kind of cooking him on the perimeter a little bit. And then this year, in that game seven against Boston, Jason Tatum just picking on him on switches, pulling him out to the perimeter and barbecuing him.

So that was part of it. The second part of it is he's easily my least favorite player in that top 12. like I said earlier, I find the flopping that he does to just be completely embarrassing and really dangerous. And it's just something that I don't really like about Joel Embed as a basketball player. So that was kind of where I was leaning towards 10. The reasoning for five was I really think Joel went up a big level in this last season. His shot making was off the charts. We'll go over that here in a little bit when I go through his season recap, but they were unfathomably good. He anchored one of the best defenses in the league. The Sixers actually finished eighth in defensive rating, but they were much,

much better with Embed off the floor than off. There was a massive drop off, like five, six points per 100 possessions when Embedd went to the bench defensively. And I thought, honestly, within the actual skill set stuff, I thought Embed had figured out some stuff that would help him in the playoffs. He was quicker and more decisive in his post-ups and ISOs. He was more aggressive to the basket. His overall fuel percentages were higher than they've been in a very, very long time or really ever in his career. and he had become a truly great mid-range jump shooter. And if you guys remember throughout the season, I kept saying that mid-range jump shot is going to be the key to him being successful in the playoffs, and he was making them at a higher clip than he ever have.

We'll talk about what actually happened in a little bit. But I ended up going with the ranking and beat at five instead of ranking him at 10, and there were three reasons for that. One, like I said earlier, really impressed by his overall competitiveness. He wanted to kick everyone's ass, and he basically did. Did he really want to win MVP? Was he campaigning for it? Yeah, but it's a lot easier said than done, and he actually went out and did it.

And I thought he deserved MVP, especially with the way that Janus and Yokic tailed off towards the end of the year. The second reason, I do think injuries have played a very big role in his playoff struggles, above and beyond the stuff that has to do with his actual approach and how that is limited in the playoffs, which we'll talk about in a little bit. Last year, if you guys remember, before he broke his face, he was pretty damn good in the Raptor series. 26 points and 11 rebounds per game, 62% true shooting, lit him on fire in the closeout game.

If you remember in Game 3 in Toronto, he hits the game winner at the buzzer to put him up 3-0. He was awesome in that series against a very, very good Raptors team. I was crazy and stupid enough to pick the Raptors to win that series. So obviously, like, there was a little bit of a level that he went up, And then he just was hurt. He had a broken face, which clearly affected him in that Miami Heat series. And then this year, he just had a bad knee.

And again, that doesn't completely justify the struggles. We'll get into some of the specific things he does that hurts him in that stage. But that does help explain things a little bit. And last but not least, and Bates' playoff struggles are still in the last two seasons, 24 points, 10 rebounds per game, 58% true shooting with two blocks. So even his, like, diminished playoff version is still, a very, very, very good playoff basketball player. And then three,

the last reason why I decided to go with Embed at five, now that he has won himself an MVP, I think that Joel Embed is going to start trying to pace himself through the regular season more. A big part of why he pushed himself so hard the last two years was his relentless pursuit of that MVP award.

And so I think it's more likely than ever that he'll be healthy for the postseason in this year. So kind of in summation, considering how close all these guys are, and that's been the theme of this entire list, but the gap between Luca Donchich at 10 and the guy that I have tomorrow at 4 is extremely small. You can make a case for Luca at 4.

You can make a case for the other guy at 10. You can make a case for Embed at 5 or 10. LeBron fans still think he's top 5, right? Anthony Davis at his very best might be better than all those guys, but that is worse, he's worse than all those guys. So the gap is incredibly small between all those guys. And as kind of like a tiebreaker for me, I wanted to reward Joelle Embede and give him credit for attacking the regular season the way he did the last couple of seasons,

the improvements that he's made, becoming basically the best volume score in the league on incredible efficiency, and then winning the league MVP award, which even though it doesn't mean as much as it used to, I think should still mean something. So kind of like the tie went to the MVP. This is basically a very, very short way to put it as I put Joel Embed at number five. And B, led the league in scoring for the second consecutive season. This is your little season recap here. 33 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists. 66% true shooting. Like the league in scoring and was off the charts efficient.

You guys remember the year James Harden averaged 36 points per game. That was back in 2019. He did that on just 62% true shooting, which is also excellent. But that just goes to show you the gap in efficiency between the volume and efficiency between what Joelle and Bede accomplished this season in the recent big volume scoring seasons that we've had. It's arguably the most impressive scoring volume and efficiency season in this era of NBA basketball.

And again, he was actually making shots. This was not just grifting. 55% on field goals. To give you some perspective, James Hardin was 44% on field goals in that 2019 season. He was way more dependent on long-distance shot result. in that season. The shot-making numbers across the board, 54% effective field-go percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers. That's awesome. 46% effective field-go percentage on pull-up jumpers.

That's really good for a guard, but it's like off-the-charts good for a big. 52% on floaters, 58% on hooks. 4.8 restricted area makes per game. That was 7th in the entire NBA. Shot 75% there. So again, not like the same level that Yokic was at the post-season this year, which again was like truly transcendent. get to that point when we get to Yolkich. But considering the sheer volume of scoring that Joel Embed was doing in this regular season,

this was unbelievable efficiency across the board. One weak spot really was the three-point line. He was just 33%. But he was 56% effective field goal percentage on unguarded catch-and-shoe jumpers, which I think qualifies him easily as a legitimate floor spacing big. Play-type data, super deadly in ISO and post-up situations. 1.16 points per ISO on huge volume among the 25 players to log at least 250 ISOs this year. Joel Embed ranked second inefficiency.

He shot over 50% in shots out of ISO situations. He was also 1.18 points per post-up among the 20 players to run at least 200 postups last year. Embed ranked third inefficiency. It shot 54% on field goals out of the post. The main driving force between Embed's ISO and post success, is just that deadly shot there in that 10 to 15 foot range that he can hit off of a jab step, off the catch, off of a quick one or two dribble combination.

And then also he's very good at ripping through to the baseline and using his size and a power dribble to dislodge the big who tries to close him off from the baseline to get back underneath the basket and make a little shot off the glass or a dunk. It's that classic push and pull where as the defender guarding, Joelle and Bede, you have to worry about the shot and the drive. And quite frankly, there's just not a lot of big, in the league that are used to guarding players like that, because there just aren't that

many bigs in the league that have a really dependable jump shot that make him have to be guarded at that specific spot on the floor. Joel LeBeed was also the very best role man in the NBA last year. He totaled 541 points on role possessions, which was 120 points more than second place in the league. Who wants to take a guess as to who was second in the league? If you guessed Nikola Vucevich, you were correct. He was effective both rolling and popping on the roll. He's just so damn big that when he would catch with his momentum going towards the basket,

you basically couldn't stop him without fouling. He shot 68% on rolls to the basket. The short roll to the foul line, this was kind of like the bread and butter of the Hardin and Bede two-man game. If Hardin was kind of going more laterally and the big was up high, it was more of like a pocket pass to the foul line. If Hardin actually got downhill a little bit, it was more of like a pop back to the foul line. but that was basically one of the really efficient ways for the Sixers to set up Joel and Bede for quick face-up ISOs at the foul line before the defense could really get set.

And he was just deadly shooting in those situations. Joel and Bid shot a 57% effective fuel goal percentage on jumpers in those pick-and-pop situations. Think about that. So like you had to close out at him, which is what opened up everything else as he was ripping through to the basket. That was just a deadly action for the Sixers all year long, that Joel Embed short roll slash pop to the top of the key where he could run a quick ISO. But injury or not, Embed's effectiveness went down a huge level in the playoffs. Again, his post-up and ISO efficiency dropped from 1.17 points per possession in the regular season

to just 1.02 points per possession in the postseason. Now, again, still over a point per possession. So like I was talking about earlier, even the diminished version of Embed is still a very good playoff basketball player over a point for over a point per possession and play types in the postseason in the half court against a set defense with everyone looking at you in my opinion is still very very valuable but the biggest driver for why he had issues and why there was that big you know 15 point per 100 possession drop off was his jumper just completely failed him i talked all season about whether or not he'd be able to make those jumpers when he got to the postseason and he just

didn't now was it probably the injury most likely yeah i talk about this all the time on the show, but energy transfer. Any sort of jump shot, especially on any sort of movement, even if it's a jab step, even if it's just a simple dribble combination, any sort of jumper off of movement is about transferring energy from the floor, from your feet, up through your

knees, through your hips, through your back, through your arms, through the shot. And if there's a disruption in that power line, it throws off the entire muscle memory of it. And so if he wasn't getting the same amount of lift out of his knee, because his knee was hurt, it all of a sudden puts more of the onus on the wrist, which is a different muscle memory than he's been working on all season.

I do think that did have a factor to play in what happened to Joel Embed in his jump shot, but the numbers, guys, they were not pretty. Joel Embed, effective field goal percentage on jump shots in this postseason, 29.7%. Effective field goal percentage, that's weighted for threes. That is 20% below his regular season efficiency on those shots. To give you an idea on just how bad that affected him, on how significantly that affected him. If he just hit his normal percentages on jumpers in this postseason, he'd have been up at 26 points per game in that playoff run.

And his volume was way down because he lost confidence in the shot. During the regular season, he took about nine jumpers per game. This year in the post season, he took barely over six. So he took about 50% fewer, or excuse me, about 33% fewer jump shots during the playoffs just because he didn't trust it any. anymore. So the jumper failing was the big reason why his scoring went down. There was also a slight decrease in free throw attempts, but that's always going to happen to everybody. Went from like,

I think, almost 12 to about nine. Defensively, same issue that plagued him at time in the times in the Toronto series, like I talked about, just inability to guard quicker wings on the perimeter. All I'll say about that is that's certainly an issue, but it's not what I want to dwell on because it's not something he has control over. He's just with his body type, he's never going to be able to guard quick wings on the perimeter. Guess who else can't do that? Nicole Yokic and he's the best player in the world. So to me, it's more about him rounding out his strengths so that they're dependable in the playoffs, not worrying so much about his weaknesses that he's never going to be able to address. But the reality is, as we look back on this phase

of Joel and Beatt's career, the playoffs are becoming a significant part of Joel's story, unfortunately. It's just the reality. He's a full 3.2 points per game lower in the playoffs compared to his regular season production and a full 3.2 percent lower in true shooting percentage. You know, it kind of reminds me of the gap we talked about in shooting percentages in the Jimmy Butler video. If you guys go back to our number nine Jimmy Butler video, I did like a 10-minute segment on just why I use different shooting percentages, why I use them in different specific

conversations and what they mean. And one of the things I talked about is players that have an extremely large gap between their true shooting percentage and their field goal percentage tend to have more significant variance in the playoffs. Why? Because that means inherently that they rely more on long-distance jump shooting and on getting a favorable whistle from the officials. Joel Embed has an 11% gap this regular season between his field goal percentage and his true shooting percentage. That means he does rely on long-distance shot result in free-throw attempts, even more than what his percentages demonstrate because he relies on a lot of mid-range jump shots,

which failed him in this playoff run. So it's one of those things where, like, just in general, as long as he relies on his jump shot as much as he does, if he's not going to make him, it's going to be a problem. So he either needs to get to the point where he can make that shot in the playoffs consistently, or he needs to reconfigure his shot profile to more of a power game that he can rely on in that stage. Obviously, playmaking continues to be an issue for Joel Embeddy. He just really struggles to handle aggressive defensive schemes. He's okay with really basic double team. So like if he's on the left block and he's facing the basket with the ball in his right hand and the double comes towards his face, this is something I noticed all season last year.

If the double comes towards his face, he sees it coming, he sees the read, he makes the read. But any sort of convoluted defensive approach, whether that's a double that comes from behind him on the baseline, whether that is a, you know, a stunt, somebody just reaching in and then recovering really quick, playing in the gaps. Guys trying to bait him into a pass that isn't really there. One of the big ones you saw all season two is any time he turned his back. So like if you made a counter move, a behind the back dribble, a spin move of any kind, the guy who was behind him would jump in and try to take the ball away.

The Celtics in particular were really good at taking advantage of Joe L&B when he would turn his back. He just really, really struggles with all of that stuff. And it's bad to a level that I think goes above and beyond what people even are aware of. Here's a crazy stat for you. Joel Embed in his career has 45 more turnovers than assists in the playoffs. 45 more turnovers than assists in the playoffs. But as is the case with most players, when it comes to playmaking, that's something you're born with. It's not something you can really develop. You can get a little better at it over time.

And there are a couple of outliers, guys like Kauai Leonard. But for the most part, it's a natural gift. You either have it or you don't. And there are peers in the NBA that struggle with it that still have success. Anthony Davis, for instance, has nearly as many playoff turnovers as assists. So to me, again, like I talked about earlier, like with the defense thing, it's less about Mbid figuring that out and just making sure his strengths actually come to the table in that setting.

Because if Joel Embed is 30 plus points per game on outrageous efficiency and 1.2 points per possession on play types in the postseason, no one's going to care if he gets beat off the dribble a few times per game, and no one's going to care if he turns the ball over three or four times a game. But as soon as the scoring goes down from 30 plus points per game to 24, and the efficiency craters and the play type efficiency craters, suddenly the inability to guard on the perimeter and the issues that he has turning the basketball over become a bigger problem. So really, that to me is the direction he needs to go, really work on refining his strengths to the point where they work in the playoffs. So what can Joe L&B do to reverse the trend of his playoff decline? I put down

three things. One, stop flopping. You're not getting the calls, not in the playoffs. Your free throws go down in that setting. Really the only time you're getting calls in the playoffs are when people actually value, and most of those times you're not actually flopping. So it's a waste. It's a waste of your energy. It's completely embarrassing to watch. It's not a good look to see the biggest player on the floor just like literally throwing himself down on the ground. It's embarrassing. And then lastly, it's dangerous. Not just for Joel Embed flopping and landing on parts of his body, but running into other

people. I mean, like, again, I don't think he did it on purpose, but there was a Joel and Beed flop that led to Danny Green tearing up his knee. It's a dangerous thing for a player that large to be falling all over the floor. Number two, he needs to develop the power game to the point where he can audible away from the jump shot to a power game when his jump shot fails him. But lastly, he needs to figure out the conditioning and health to get to the point where his jump shot actually translates to the playoffs.

I think it's a combination of him getting banged up and the increase in physicality that causes his jump shot efficiency to tank. So he's got to figure out a way to navigate the regular season and make it to April healthy. And he's got to figure out a way to improve his conditioning so that he can handle that increase physicality when he gets to that point. The touch is there. He's a great shooter.

numbers are too good. If you go back and look, he's got like three seasons in the last four where he's over 47% effective field goal percentage and jump shots. This season, 54%. There was a season, I think, three or four years ago where he was 52%. He's a very good jump shooter. He just has to figure out a way to get it to translate to the playoffs. So in summary, Joel Embed, in my opinion, has been one of the three best regular season players in the league over the course of this particular decade. He's been the best volume score in the league for about three years now. He does it on an incredibly efficient clip, and he's an excellent rim protector anchoring an excellent defense. That makes him, like I said before, one of the three best regular season players of the 2020s. But some

combination of his injury luck and his offensive approach have led to him having a significant reduction in effectiveness when he gets to the postseason. He's got to figure that out. If he does, if he learns how to manage the grind of the NBA season and he gets to the point where he can play at his peak in the postseason, I think he is capable of challenging Nicola Yokic as the best player in the league. That is the type of talent that he has. His ceiling is that high.

We've seen it time and time again in the regular season. He's just got to figure out how to get it to translate. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. We'll be back tomorrow with number four. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys, and I will see you that. Volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get.

your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere,

but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast,

or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.