The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Warriors finish Grizzlies, Celtics force Game 7

Episode Date: May 14, 2022

Jason breaks down a wild night of basketball, diving into how the Warriors pulled off a Game 6 win and looking at Tatum and the Celtics’ huge performance to stay alive against dominant Giannis and the Bucks. #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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In Tennessee, redline, dial 1-800-9-97889 in Tennessee. visit www. www.1.1800 gambler.net in West Virginia. All right. Welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by Fanduel here at the volume. I'm Jason Tim. Happy Friday, everybody. Congrats on making it to the weekend. An incredible night of basketball. And we are almost done with the second round of what has been an incredible playoff field so far, as we expected, with all of the incredible talent and all the great teams involved.

What an interesting game that was. A lot of self-sabotage from Golden State early on. And, you know, Steph continues to struggle. We're going to talk about that in this show. But he, once again, as he's done throughout this series and as he's done for the most part throughout his playoff career, he made all of the big plays when it mattered at the end of the game. We're going to talk about everything from this game, game six clay.

We're going to talk about Steph Curry. We're going to talk about what it looks like for Golden State in the next round, which matchup, I think, is best. We're going to bring my guy Carson on. We're going to get into the weeds of some of this stuff. And then if you guys stick around for the end, I'm going to do a deep dive into everything from that incredible Buck Celtics game, which featured an unbelievable showdown of two of the best basketball players alive

in Jason Tatum and Janus and Tenacumpo. We have an absolutely packed show tonight. I sincerely appreciate you guys coming to hang out. Before we move forward, make sure you like this video and subscribe to the volume's YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our content. We're going to be going live basically for every big game the rest of the way. So no game tomorrow, no game Monday. But outside of that, if you see an NBA playoff game and you want to break down, come hang out with us on YouTube after the final buzzer. And then last but not least, follow me on Twitter. I underscore Jason LT. So you can see all

of the video content that I do to back up the concepts that we talk about on the show. I wanted to start with Clay Thompson tonight because you saw an interesting battle take place between him and Dylan Brooks. And there are two guys that have been maligned in some ways by their own fan base, but at the same time, loved by their own fan base. Now, for both of them, it's for different reasons. Because for Clay, it's because he just hasn't demonstrated that he's the same guy since his injury, at least not yet.

But for Dylan Brooks, it's kind of like consistently, he's just been a kind of a wild card, a guy that looks amazing one night and terrible the next, a textbook, good, play bad play guy but since clay's come back from his injury he's been inconsistent i'd give him a ton of slack you've been away from the game of basketball for two years it's just really hard to get that rhythm and flow back but one of the important things with clay that i've appreciated as he struggled through this stretch as he's missed a boatload of shots as the fan base has been critical of him what i have appreciated is he hasn't lost his audacity and there's value you in audacity.

Because the NBA playoffs are as stressful and high pressure as any basketball environment can get. And there are a lot of guys who simply don't want to shoot. They don't want to be held accountable for the result of a shot. And you've seen so many players over the years absolutely crumble in this environment. we saw matisse thival a really talented young player for the philadelphia 76ers just completely combust under the pressure of being expected to knock down spot-up threes and both of these guys have significantly more responsibility you need guys that are just a little bit unhinged

with their shot selection that aren't scared and you understand that there's a downside you You understand that there's going to be shots from Clay that don't make any sense. You understand that there are going to be games where Clay Thompson goes out and takes incredibly difficult shots and it ends up hurting the team. But you also know that you can have a night like tonight. When Jordan Poole can't make anything, when Steph Curry can't make anything, when Andrew Wiggins starts one for seven, and you just need somebody to make something happen. and Clay Thompson, who's never scared, who has that audacity,

just continually keeps chipping away at that wall. And he had a huge game in a moment where his team absolutely needed it. You know, the Warriors have, you know, they had a specific set of tasks that they needed to accomplish tonight. We talked about all of those after game five. The reason why they lost game five is they're the veteran team. that went on the road against a young super athletic team that was desperate. And in that environment, feeding off of their home crowd, especially with all of their physical

advantages, they were able to bludgeon Golden State in a lot of very specific ways. Transition on the glass defensively, just sitting in a stance and containing ball handlers. And I talked about a lot of different things that were going to be important tonight coming into this game. Because the truth of the matter is, is Golden State is so much more skilled. than Memphis in this environment, in half court sets. When everyone's in their position and you need to create shots, Golden State just has so much more that they can go to.

A guy like Dylan Brooks on Golden State would never shoot the ball because there's just more skilled players on the floor. But the problem is, I talk all the time on the show about swing factors. Swing factors are the things that take place in a basketball game that are outside of the static half court environment. And those things, they're like special teams in football, they are the kinds of things that can swing a game one way or another. And transition is one of them, turning the ball over is one of them, offensive rebounding is one of them. You know, scheming and coaching is one of them.

There's a ton of these types of elements, the foul calling for free throw shooting. There's a million things that can come into a game that can swing it one way or another. And, you know, Golden State came in tonight and they tightened up a lot of things. They actually flipped the offensive rebounding script completely on Memphis and dominated them on the offensive glass tonight, which was something that they did really well, games one through four, and then they just completely lost control of in game five. They did a much better job in their own defense, containing ball handlers and just sitting in a stance and doing the things that they needed to do. They did a lot of things well. But there were two things that they did poorly that I thought were the reason why this game almost got away from me. them. One, they did not apply enough rim pressure. I talked a lot about after the last game that

one of the most important things that they had to do tonight was get guys like Jordan Poole, guys like Steph Curry downhill, beating people off the dribble. And they did a little bit in the fourth quarter. There were a couple plays where Jordan Poole got in the lane missed layups, but guys were there for offensive rebounds. Steph had a huge driving play past Desmond Bain. So they did a little bit in the fourth quarter. But the reason why the game was so close throughout was they weren't getting the same high quality shots that they always get when they are putting their head down and getting to the basket. When they mess around on the perimeter, that's when bad things happen. And then the second big thing was turnovers. They were throwing the ball all over the court tonight.

And this has been a consistent issue throughout the Golden State era, as many of you Warriors fans know, but I don't think people realize specifically how damaging live ball turnovers are. So to give you example, because there's two sides to this. On live ball turnovers in this playoff run that lead to a transition opportunity, Golden State is giving up 1.35 points per possession in this playoff run. So 135 points per 100 possessions, if you prefer to hear it that way. But it's not just that. It's giving up the shot attempt. So let's say that you expect on a Golden State half court possession in the playoffs to score one point per possession just to make the math easy. That means every turnover is effectively almost a two and a half point swing.

Because not only are you not getting a shot attempt, but Memphis is running it right down the other way. And in this playoff run, you've been given up almost one and a half points per transition live ball turnover. That's how damaging those plays are. And it's not hard to figure out, typically speaking when you turn the ball over on a back cut or driving to the basket or throwing a cross-court pass, the guy who gets the steel typically has a head of steam because he's hawking to the ball. The defense is set up in a way where they start sprinting the other way almost before you can turn around and kind of figure out what's happening. Transition defense is really hard. Look at how athletic Boston is and how much they've struggled with transition defense in this entire playoff run.

You have to take care of the. basketball because if you don't it gives memphis a swing opportunity if you can keep the game in the half court you are the better more skilled team you are a better defensive team too when you're dialed in the way that golden state can get at times and so it's so important that you don't toss Memphis opportunities like that you know there was other swing factors like dylan brooks just had one of those nights where everything was working he sit and step back threes he's getting into the lane there is you and having a guy that big, you know, six, five, six, six, strong that can put the ball on the floor and shoot from different spots on the floor, especially when that audacity comes into play,

because that audacity is what gives him the lack of fear to think that that might not be a good shot. And on a night, like tonight, it almost carried Memphis to the finish line. And I, I don't think people realize the stakes. If Golden State had lost that game, they would very likely have lost in game seven. There was some matchup stuff that was starting to wear on them specifically with size and athleticism. And Golden State, to their credit, they made enough plays down the stretch to not let that happen. You know, Steph, we're going to talk about Steph here in just a minute because there's a big task laying in front of Golden State, a big task laying in front of Steph, specifically with some matchup stuff that we'll talk about

when we bring Carson on. But consistently, not just in this series, but throughout this hole in playoff run. Even on bad nights, he's had the fortitude to make the important plays at the end of the game. And ironically, in almost every situation in this playoff run, it's been getting to the basket. The two shots that got Steph going tonight were a play where he drove into the lane, and I can't remember who was guarding him. It might have been Desmond Bain, but kind of hit with the shoulder, got that little bit of space right at the charge circle, and made like a little bade away seven-footer. Again, it's a jump shot, but a wide-open seven-footer for Steph, he's going to make 80% of the time. And then the next trip down, he drove all the way to the

rim and finished. There are a lot of guys in this league that when they aren't making their jump shots, they combust. They feel like it's not their night. They want to pound their head into the brick wall, meaning all they want to do is keep taking jump shots. Steph's been there and he's done that. He's had enough bad shooting nights to know that, especially with, him and all the impact that he has, you know, the biggest play of the game that dunk at the end, that kind of iced it, the dunk that Draymond had. It's Steph just faking a step back three. And when he faked a step back three, Kivon Looney's man helped out of the weak side corner. He just dropped it over the top to Looney.

Looney just kind of made a little bounce past Draymond in the lane and it's a dunk. Those are little things that aren't going to show in the box score for Steph Curry, but they are part of his impact on winning. And to Steph's credit, he's always under. understood that his jump shot is not reliable. Even at his best, he's capable of having one for 10 nights or two for 10 nights. And he knows that that's not exactly a night in night out type of thing. And he has to impact winning in different ways. And consistently in this playoff run, whenever he has had poor shooting nights, he has made big plays at the end of the game to help his team win. And that's the mark of a champion. That's a mark of a guy that I think has been the second best

player of this era. And it's a mark of a guy that I think it's not a coincidence. that he's won as often as he has. Big win for Golden State, though. I don't think people realize anywhere near how much trouble they were in there, trailing in the fourth quarter in Game 6 facing a Game 7 in Memphis. We want to get into a bunch more details of this game, but I want to bring my guy Carson on so that we can do it in a more conversational manner. So let's get Carson up here, and we're going to get into some questions.

We may not have Carson yet. So I'm going to move into this conference finals matchup. So the question becomes, if you're going to be a question becomes, Golden State fan and you've got a big game a big game seven on Sunday night between Phoenix and Golden State and up there we go we got Carson or we don't have Carson all right I'm going to keep going so Sunday night Dallas and Phoenix so we're good to go now all right okay hey buddy hey Jason how we doing I'm doing good man I can't complain that's fantastic all right well we got five big questions for you tonight

And we'll start with one related to what's coming up for the Warriors now. So obviously we have Game 7 still incoming between the Sons and the Mavs. Who do you think is the better matchup for the Warriors between those two teams? So this is a really interesting question because they're both very different. And one team in particular is significantly better. Like I think Phoenix is a better basketball team than Dallas by a pretty decent margin, although it hasn't manifested in this series. I just think that has a lot more to do with Chris Paul randomly hitting a massive slump and Phoenix just not really playing well on the road.

But when they're at home, there's a giant chasm between the teams and it's even bigger than the chasm that manifests in Dallas. What's interesting, though, is if I was Golden State, I would want Phoenix to win because I think, again, these playoff series are frequently about matchups. What would terrify me about a matchup with Dallas is one of the reasons why Luca is struggling, not just Luca, but Jaylen Brunson and everybody in that series has struggled to create, especially in Phoenix, is because Phoenix is extremely imposing with their size. And so, Luca is struggling to shoot over the likes of McHale Bridges, struggling to shoot over the likes of DeAndre Aiton, struggling to shoot over the likes of Cam Johnson, because they just have a ton of length. And it just makes it so that each of those shots is a little more rushed, a little more pressed, and it's just difficult, right?

here's the thing. Luca's going to have a size advantage over every single rotational player that plays for Golden State in that series. He will be comfortable the entire series, at least as it pertains to getting to his spots and getting to his shots. I'm sure Steve Kerr will have a lot up his sleeve. They'll have different coverages and things that they'll throw at him. So it's not like it won't be a challenge. But I think Luca will have a much easier time attacking Golden State than he did Phoenix. Now, why would I, so Phoenix obviously has their own issues, right?

They're a bigger team. That's something that could theoretically cause Golden State problems. But Golden State has demonstrated for you against Memphis that when they're focused in actually doing the job that they're supposed to do, that they handle size pretty well. What I like about the matchup with Phoenix is I do think they'll do a little bit of drop coverage stuff, especially early in games and early in the series to try to save Steph and Jordan Poole and Clay from having to bang with DeAndre Aiton in offensive rebound situations or in quick seals and things like that. So I do think they'll try to avoid that some.

But Golden State will consistently have an option to switch everything. And they'll do that a lot. And because of the way that Dallas has played and because of the way that New Orleans played, we saw this in New Orleans. When New Orleans played Valenshoonis and they did drop, Phoenix was scoring at will. But when they ditched him and went five out and switched everything, Phoenix struggled to score. And we talked a lot about how that's a strategy for Dallas in Game 7. I think Golden State has some potential to really disrupt Golden State's offense.

And with Chris Paul not looking great right now as an individual shot creator, getting to his spots and knocking down shots, you pretty much, it's not that you don't have to worry about Chris Paul, but Devin Booker is the only one that really intimidates you as a matchup attacker. So I think especially as the series drags out, Golden State is going to have some really good options to attack a Phoenix on both ends of the floor. Whereas I think Dallas, it could turn into a really bad Luca problem that they might not be able to solve. So that's really interesting. I think you're absolutely right on the Luca nightmare matchup issue. And I also think the Suns just overall haven't been playing quite at the level that we've come to expect from them probably.

And I think part of that maybe is some of the dip we've seen from CP. And I just think, obviously, they have not been at the level that we saw from them at their best this year. I still do think, though, that in terms of true two-way ceiling, in terms of just the quality impact player quotient, in terms of having, you know, multiple guys who went out their best are true star level, they do have a lot of advantages over the Mavs. I do think that they're fundamentally just a better basketball team, but I also don't necessarily disagree with some of the matchup things that you point out there. So how do you think the Warriors would go about handling Luca. Like what is the coverage? Who is the primary guy there? What's the approach?

So I think the smart move and Phoenix has demonstrated this is you turn Luca into a score. But Phoenix has the luxury of because the thing with Luca is he punishes mismatches with his size. Okay. Like he wants to pin you on his hip and he wants to work you into the lane and go to an arsenal of floaters if he can. If he can't get past you in that regard, he wants to pin you on his back side and he wants to take turnaround jump shots out of the high post because he knows that those are his highest percentage shots to attack switches. The Phoenix has put him in a predicament where he's had to take a lot more step back threes because those guys are so damn big that he can't shoot over them as easily, right? I think that I think that Luca would be living in the low, the low post and the high post against Golden State in those isolation situations and just get a lot better. shots than he did against Phoenix. Now, here's the thing. Golden State, they will throw different coverages at him. They'll trap him sometimes. They will, they will send double teams from time to time.

It's just like he's one of the most cerebral players in the league. I just think, I just think in general, the, there's going to be a groove that I believe Luca would get into against Golden State that he hasn't gotten into against Dallas, against Phoenix. And I think that if I am Golden State, that would scare me more than the prospect of, let's, switch everything against Phoenix and turn Chris Paul into his score, which he hasn't done well in a couple of weeks now. And Devin Booker's got this hamstring thing. He obviously is a great player and he's going to burn you some on that. But like there are little details, right? Like, you don't want to have Steph and Jordan Poole fighting through fighting for offensive defensive

rebounds against eight and all series long. There are definitely wrinkles there. But you're choosing between two great teams. It's not like we're choosing between two bad teams. Like they're both going to present different problems. I just think the problems that Phoenix presents are more solvable for Golden State, whereas Dallas's problem, that might be unsolvable. Yeah, that's interesting. I do think the other factor that is always a question with Dallas is the element that's out of Lucas Hand, and that is what is the secondary and shot, the secondary shot making playmaking that you get from Brunson and Dinwiddie. And obviously Brunson was phenomenal in the first series and has had some great moments in this one, but also some down moments.

Dinwiddie is often struggled to be efficient. Luca is going to be dominant individually. There's just no denying that. That is a nightmare matchup for anybody. Although I do wonder if some of the Warriors, true wing defenders like an Andrew Wiggins, how he can compete in that matchup, I don't know if there are times where you put Draymond on Luke,

obviously, you know, straight up perimeter defenses in his strength, but in the post, I think Draymond is incredibly well equipped to handle that. So that's interesting. I would think that if I were the Warriors, I would rather see the MAVs, even though Luca alone has them so scared right now, just because the Sons simply have more, I believe, really good, truly impactful basketball players. I think they're still a solid amount better defensively.

And I just kind of trust the replicability of what they're doing a little bit more, because outside of Luca, it just feels like night to night with the MAVs you don't really know. I think unquestionably Golden State would have an easier time scoring against Dallas. I think that goes about saying. Um, it's just, it's just like, I think of, I think that they're, they're going to put both teams in predicaments though. You know what I mean? So I, I don't know, I don't, I don't think it's something I'm particularly passionate about. I'm just saying if I was a golden state fan, that's where I would lay. But that's a really, really interesting perspective, Carson. And I think you, I think you, you, you broke it down really well. Yeah, I think another

interesting factor is like, you know, what level CP gets to and we'll see obviously what happens with all that. All right. So let's talk about Steph for a second here because he had an interesting game tonight. He really struggled to be efficient for a while, did end up making some big shots down the stretch. But you've talked a lot throughout this year about some of the regression that we've seen from him in terms of shot making in terms of his production and efficiency this year. And we've seen some moments of that in the playoffs too. So Jason, do you believe as the Warriors now work their way into the last four teams here, can Steph match the first? firepower of the other top major stars out there? That's tough. I don't think so,

but I don't think he needs to necessarily be Janus. I don't think he necessarily needs to be what Jason Tatum was tonight. I don't think he needs to be like that world beat or offensive player because his team has a ton of skill and talent. It's more important for him to weaponize that and create shots for other people, but he will need to be better than he has been. So, So Steph was amazing in the first round. He had a 50-40 round, over 50% from the field, over 40% from three. But in this series coming into tonight, which he did not shoot well tonight overall, he was 42% from the field and 32% from three, average about 25 points.

So the reality is, is there are specifically Dallas and Boston or Miami would put step in a position where he would have to create shots for himself off the dribble a little bit more because of their switching attack that is designed to bait you into isolation possessions, right? You know, what will be really interesting is I think if they played Phoenix, they'd end up putting Mikhail Bridges on him because Mikhail has had some success against him, completely shut him down in one game this regular season. But, and then I think if they put Mikhail on him, they could put him in situations where where they can run drop coverage with Aiton.

The trick is, is what I would worry about if I was Phoenix at that case is if I'm Steph, I'm just running off of a million screens if McHale Bridges is on me because McHale's a big body and he's more likely to get caught on screens, although he does a really good job compared to most bigger players. But the reality is this is a really deep field and there are really good teams ahead. You know, Dallas is one of the weaker ones, but Phoenix is really good, Boston's really good, Miami's really good, Milwaukee's really good. And Steph is probably going to be asked to create offense in a way that he didn't have to

in these first two rounds because this Memphis team is not as nearly as skilled as Golden State. That Pelicans team was not nearly as skilled as Golden State. When they move into these later rounds, there are going to be teams that have good offensive firepower that are going to require this Warriors offense to produce more. And I do think Steph needs to be better. But it's all about matchups. You know, like in that first round series against Denver, Yokic sat in a drop all night long. and then when he would switch, Steph would dust him.

So he was getting better looks against Denver. He got worse looks in this series. The one thing I'll say, too, this is not a conversation about Steph's long-term, you know, prospects. Like the dude literally played zero regular season games coming into this playoff run because he had a sprained foot. His first bit of basketball action was first round of the NBA playoffs coming off the bench. So I'm not criticizing Steph in the sense that like, oh, he's washed.

I'm just saying, regardless of the service, circumstance with his foot injury, he's going to have to be better than he has been in order to beat the top teams in the league. Do you think he is in that top five players on the planet group right now? Oh, that's a good question. So I would go, I think you have to put Janus there. Yeah. I'm way down on Embedd. I'm lower on Yokic than you, but I do think he probably is on that list. I still put KD there. I still put LeBron there. this is interesting. So I really want to do a deep dive into this after the season. But the reality is, is Steph has, I think he's scored over 30 points in most of his playoff games this year. So that,

I would say, is pretty classic Steph. He's done a great job on the defensive end of the floor. He's been closing games. He's dependable in a playoff environment. He's a fantastic leader who doesn't get rattled. I would say that he probably is in that four or five slot. But I, I, I, I, I don't want to be held to that until I can take some more time after the season to dive into it. And it does feel like that list is kind of ever changing just because there's so many dynamics. It's a snow globe. Stretching that we see from guys. Yeah, I mean, Luca, Tatum, those guys were out of sorts for half a year.

And then second half of the year playoffs have been like top five players on the planet in that period. I do think it's interesting. Just the shot making dip compared to what we normally see from Steph, though, because the regular season efficiency we are aware of in the playoffs he's been 45% from the field, 36% from three. It's just, it's established. And he still obviously is incredibly dynamic. He was among the most efficient pick and roll on isolation scorers this year. He's still a really efficient score overall because of just the value of the three at the volume.

He shoots it and the efficiency he shoots it. And, you know, he has moments tonight where he's just dusting guys off the dribble when he wants to. But it just has not been the same consistent dominant stuff. And so I think it's a very legitimate question. this point in terms of does he get to that level of the top tier guys he's not even taking the types of shots he took from 2015 to 2018 like he's just not even attempting them anymore which is a weird thing in and of itself what he kind of looks like now and again we have to remember the foot injury is a huge part of this but what he kind of looks like now is that old

guy at the gym that is playing with the younger guys and it's kind of just floating through the games because he doesn't have the energy to, but then at the end of every game, you know, he can just tap into that, you know, extra level that the other guys can't tap into. And so the question for him moving forward becomes, you know, is this a physical decline or is it just his foot? And the only real way we're going to find out is if he gets stronger over this playoff run or if he comes into next year and training camp and just looks amazing. But the reality is, is like, you know, these playoff games, especially for these talented teams that have lots of guys, like Golden State's not Milwaukee. They're not in a situation where they require Janus to create every single basket for them

or Janus or Drew or bust. You know what I mean? Like they have guys that can kind of spread that load around. So it's kind of a luxury for Steph in the sense that like he doesn't need to be 100% right now. They just need him to close games. But again, it's the margin for error gets tighter and tighter as you get further along in this run. So I do think that he'll have to tap into something. The old guy in the gym analogy is remarkable just because not that I think it's untrue, but it's just crazy because last year he averaged 32 a game on like almost 66% true shooting, I think. It was, we were talking about is this peak step?

Is this the best he's ever been? I thought he was the best he'd ever been. Yeah. I think that's very fair. And it was also even a different level of volume of pick and roll stuff because they didn't have the secondary ball handlers and decision. makers that they did in, you know, Peak Warriors dynasty besides Dramond. It was him having to get more for himself than ever before on higher volume on as good

efficiency as ever. Just crazy. It's really a pretty remarkable contrast between last year and this one. So obviously, we talk about Steph here and he is and forever will be the face of this warrior's team. Who do you think is the second most important warrior, Jason? So I think this is Jordan Poole hands down. So we just talked to him.

a minute ago about Steph not taking the crazy types of shots off the dribble that he used to when he was younger, right? Well, to me, that's kind of, that kind of amounts to the offensive creation element, right? And Jordan Poole, we did a whole thing on this show like about a week ago about this after game three, I believe. But Jordan Poole's ability to to apply dribble penetration, it becomes so much more valuable as they move deeper into the playoffs and they face teams that do more switching. We talk about this concept a lot in the show we're going to talk about it more later tonight but the gist of it is is against switching defenses that are designed to bait you and to pull up jump shooting but the best way to be to switching defenses with dribble penetration to force help so that you can swing

the ball around and start attacking closeouts and get better looks out of it like that so jordan pool clay thompson is clay thompson and you know he's not the same two-way player that he was before the injuries he's still incredibly important to this team we talked about that earlier his audacity and in the way that his lack of fear is such a weapon. But I do think that in half court situations, as they get further into this playoff run, having a guy like Jordan Poole that can beat dudes off the dribble is going to become absolutely imperative to them beating some of these better teams. Who do you think makes the next best argument?

Oh, man. I would say, I would say, Dremond. The reason why, and I'm going to refer to him on offense, because, he is every bit as great as you could expect Raymond to be on the defensive end of the floor. But especially, you know, in specific matchups, like if they play Phoenix and they end up having to play Looney a lot more, whatever it is, spacing starts to become a little bit of a concern.

And Draymond looking to score, particularly in short role situations. Like I'm not as concerned about him in spot up situations. People freak out about that. But to me, it's like, if Raymond's wide open at the top of the key and no one's guarding him, because you know, Stephen Adams or whatever is under the basket, okay? And you kick out to Draymond. If he doesn't shoot, but he just runs over to Clay, does a dribble handoff and like body checks Clay's man and Clay gets a wide open three, it effectively accomplishes the same thing

as him being open, arguably better because it's for a better shooter. To me, it's more short roll situations. Him when he's barreling to the basket unguarded, him looking to score with those floaters and layups at the rim, that to me is, what allows the defense to collapse around him so that he can kick to shooters outside. Whereas when he starts kick, the dead giveaway with Dremont is when he starts kicking, even when no one's contesting him at the rim or kicking like at the semicircle, semi circle before he's even gotten to the rim. Like those are those are the possessions where it's like, okay, Dramon, you got to look to

score because even if you miss, like even if in short roll situation, Dremont goes two for six on floaters and layups, all it takes is convincing the defense to collapse on him because then that's what opens up his playmaking opportunities. So you say pool is their second most important player. Is he just outright their second best player, you think? Not necessarily. He's too inconsistent. I would say Draymond's easily their second best player. Jordan, it's maybe like the question was most important. And that's kind of what I'm hitting at here is like, I don't think the Warriors are the best team remaining. I I think Boston's better than them.

I think Milwaukee maybe kind of similar level. Phoenix is in terms of talent. I like Golden State as a matchup there, but Phoenix is a more talented team in terms of two-way size and athleticism and skill. It's like, to me, it's more about matchups moving forward. I think in order to raise Golden State ceiling to the point where they are the ones holding the trophy,

the most important swing factor there is Jordan Poole. his ability to be great offensively, particularly beating people off the dribble. I agree with you in terms of swing factor because there is, I think, with Draymond, such a dependability in terms of the defense and the playmaking. And yeah, you don't know what kind of finishing you're going to get. But I think if you were to take away Draymond, it's interesting because we saw this regular season, obviously, as we do every year, his value, where I think they were 28 and 7 when he and Steph played together or 20 something,

something around there during the regular season. And their defense fell off from best in the league to suddenly they were playing at the level of like the 20 something best defense in the league without him. But I also totally agree with you in that the Warriors have never had a secondary shotmaker, a secondary bucket getter like Jordan Poole. Pete Clay Thompson couldn't come close to replicating the value getting downhill, facilitating, you know, shot making off the dribble. Clay, we see it tonight.

He calls for a screen and he's just curling around it and pulling a three. and the guy's hand in his face, but it just doesn't matter because he's Clay. But he's completely added a new dimension as you've touched on before. And yeah, I mean, it's up to him to play at true star level because first half of the year, Jordan Pool was like a solid 16 a game guy on pretty solid efficiency. Second half of the year Jordan Pool, playoff Jordan Pool has been a 23 a game guy on great efficiency. And that's, I think, what they need if they're going to win the title. Yeah, and credit to Memphis. Like, Memphis did a really, really good job after.

jaw went down of defending. And pretty much everybody on the Warriors struggled during these last few games. So credit to Memphis. But yeah, I agree with you. I think Jordan Poole is the most important for just raising that offensive ceiling to where they need to be in order to get the Lario B. All right. Let's talk about Memphis here.

How do they improve ahead of next season now that this year is over for them, Jason? And specifically, what does Jod? do to improve. Well, the jaw thing is easy. It's a defense. I think he needs to put on a little bit of muscle and, and become better at holding his own at the point of attack defensively. That was him giving up drill penetration was one of the biggest things that undercut his own success in this playoff run.

As far as like how to improve the roster or whatever, like their, their roster is incredible. They're going to be great. I love the way it's put together. this team is every bit the type of young team looking forward that Golden State was in 2013, 2014, that Oklahoma City was in 2010, 2011. They have all of that at their disposal in talent.

The guy that I think is the huge swing factor for this team is Jaron Jackson, Jr. He was an absolute monster after Jha went down. I take that back. He was a monster in the entire series. But one of the big reasons why this series remained close after Jolly went down was how dominant Jaron Jackson Jr. was. He's got Anthony Davis type of upside underneath the basket as a rim protector. He's showing these flashes of perimeter shooting that are, you know, super encouraging. And then he unlocked like a little bit of a bully ball thing in this playoff front.

He's always had the bully ball thing. But he's always been reckless with it. and kind of tunnel vision, not great at seeing what's happening around him on the floor. That, like, there were possessions in the last few games where he was just taking it to Dremont. And there was nothing Dremont could do. He's got a really, really good left-handed hook in the lane, which is super important for, for any player to be able to score in bully ball situations because if you can only go one direction, it just makes the physical task for the defender so much easier.

but like this team is going to be terrifyingly good. Desmond Bain kind of is what he is. I don't see him getting significantly better at anything. He shot over 50% from three this year or whatever it was. So like Desmond Bain is Desmond Bain. Like he's going to be the Clay Thompson of this team. He's going to take big perimeter defensive assignments. He's going to attack close outs and knock down threes like crazy.

You know, John Morant offensively, more or less is what he is, but he'll become more dependable as a three-point shooter. But like as John Morant elevates and takes that next step into becoming that dependable two-way superstar. And as Jared Jackson Jr. does the same, this team was already the two-seat. They already had the talent to push Golden State to the point where without their best player in a game six,

they had a fourth quarter lead on the road and had an opportunity to send this thing home. Like Memphis is like, I don't need to see a single free agent signing or a single trade to know that they are a bona fide contender next year. Like I'm a huge believer in them looking forward. I think Triple J is fascinating. The defense is all world.

I think that's undeniable. He came so far there this year. And that was always the expectation is I think that would be his greatest asset. And you see the moments offensively of the ball handling at his size, the relative quickness, the shooting. And, you know, some of the bully ball stuff that you talk about. At the same time, there is just an inconsistency and a lack of control and decision making. you know, he settles for the floaters a lot and it's like he's okay at them, but he shot 38% from the field in these playoffs. His shot really has been shockingly inconsistent since his second year where, you know, he was sub 32% from three this year.

So I always have mixed feelings about him offensively because when it's going, it's great, but there's a lot of nights where I just feel like he's not playing up to his talent level. And what he should theoretically be just is not what he looks like night to night. So he's four years into his career. It's sort of an interesting point where he's not fully developed, but he's obviously deep in his development. So like what is your actual expectation? Do you think he can become a true star level guy?

Do you think he will reach that level or just where do you come down on, you know, what you think he'll be? I absolutely think he'll be a star. First of all, Carson, you're so good at this kind of stuff. I think this is one of your best abilities is this like player development, scouting type of thing. This is why everyone needs to follow Carson on TikTok. But the thing with Jared Jackson Jr.

is like, to me, the efficiency stuff, and I didn't realize it was that bad. But the thing with the efficiency stuff is like, to me, shot selection efficiency stuff will come in time. Especially for a guy like Jared Jackson Jr. too, like he's going through offensive development phases that guards go through when they're 12 years old. You know, like he's learning on the fly how to be an offensive. player in very, very difficult environments against two teams, by the way, in Minnesota and Golden State who are excellent at containing guys who are scores, you know, specifically guys that put the ball on the floor and try to go to the basket. They're two excellent dribble-contained teams. So like the way I look at it, it's like when you, when you buy yourself, it's like

Dylan Brooks. Like we've all roasted Dylan Brooks for his shot selection in this series and obviously he was great tonight. But you know what Dylan Brooks does? He guards. like an MFer and no and he's a huge pain in the ass and so like when you're a coach you just kind of live with the bad because you're getting so much good on the defensive end of the floor and that's kind of the way I see the Jaron Jackson Jr. thing like right now he's a huge positive because of what he brings defensively and his offensive game is so unpolished but there's all this potential there so like right there's no reason in the world why he shouldn't be able to polish some of that stuff up one of the big things that I like with him and that I that I prefer compared to other bigs like I would

compare this to bam at a bio like both jaron jackson and bam at a bio have this capability a lot of the bigger upright bigs guys like anthony davis guys like i mean i would even say joll and bid is in this camp as well they don't have super quick first steps so like they can destroy slow-footed bigs and they can if they get into low post situations they can beat smaller defenders by shooting over the top. What they aren't doing is slashing. And so what you'll see all the time is like Anthony Davis types, they'll just put a stout low center of gravity wing on him and try to push him further away from the basket. You know what I mean? But Jared Jackson and he did this, he was a monster with this stuff in game four in particular in this series, the one that Golden State

pulled out late at home. Like he has a great first step and can beat quick players to the spot and get to the rim, which with his size, his size is Bay Mettabio has this too. And I think it's like, to me, that's the real next evolution of the center position is, is a guy that has the rim protecting capabilities of an Anthony Davis type of player, but has the slashing capabilities of a big wing. And to me, that's Bam. To me, that's Jaron Jackson. Obviously, Jaron has a long way to go, but that's kind of the way I look at it.

Yeah, I think that the traits are under. denial. I think it's a matter of consistency and decision-making and mentality at times with him offensively. But I think you're right. I mean, if he shoots 37% from three, which it seems like he's totally capable of and takes better shots offensively, he doesn't have to be an offensive star to be a star basketball player because he's already such a game-changer defensively. Yep, I 100% agree. Let's step away from Warriors Grizzlies for our last question here. And let's talk about the masterpiece that was Jason Tatum's 46 point performance tonight. Jason, do you think that was the best individual performance of the playoff so far?

Ooh, that's a tough question. I can't put it over the Janus stuff because the degree of difficulty is so much higher. Like, Janus is just facing so much more defensive attention and his team doesn't have anywhere near as much creation around him. So, like, Tatum's had some bad games in this series where his team is won. So, like, to me, it's a different type of ask. But that said, like, Janus is on a fast track to enter some pretty intense long-term basketball conversation. So that's a totally different standard.

Like, Tatum, Tatum is just now kind of entering into his phase of superstardom. What this was, what tonight was, and I won't go too far into the weeds because we're about to do a full breakdown of Buck Celtics, but, like, what this is. this was to me was the first signature moment, the first signature game of Jason Tatum's career. In the same way that with LeBron fans, you look back to that 2007 game five against the Pistons as kind of like his coming out party. To me, that's what Tatum, this is what it was for tonight. Everyone knew Tatum was good. But this was like the, oh, he can be that good. And, you know, in terms of degree of difficulty, and it's not like Janus, but what it was, was, and I don't know

if you felt this, Carson, when you were watching the game, but there was, and we're going to talk more about this when we get into the breakdown, but Milwaukee figured some stuff out, specifically with how switching causes Boston's offensive issues. Like, we've talked a lot about Boston's offensive issues and their shot selection, kind of determining the direction that these games go in. When they play smart offense, they just immediately go on a run. And when they start messing around, they immediately start giving up points in transition and stuff like that. Well, Milwaukee is, figured out that if they do switching primarily and to keep brookelopez off the floor it kind of leads boston into that type of play and a lot of stuff was going milwaukee's way in that fourth quarter

and that shot making from jason tatum literally staved off what i thought was going to be a milwaukee comeback you know like i it kind of felt like all of the avalanche was moving in that direction and and so you guys you guys hear me talk about this all the time like tatum had some awesome games against Brooklyn. But he was the front runner. He had a better team. I predicted Boston would win the series after game two. I thought they'd sweep them after game two because I'm like they're just so much better. You know what I mean? And I always talk about how like what always is caused what's always resonated with me personally evaluating basketball players is like, what do you do when things aren't going your way? What do you do when the tables are turned on you?

And again, Boston had a lead. So I don't want to act like it's as wild as some of the comebacks that we've seen. But if you were watching that game, you could feel it. You could feel Boston's offense falling to pieces. You could feel the lack of dribble penetration. You could feel the lack of coherent shot selection. And Jason Tatum, you could also feel it going the other way. Janus made another massive fourth quarter three-point shot.

And you're Pat Conantin hit a shot in the corner. It's coming. This is it. It's happening again. And Jason Tatum staved that off. So first signature moment of his career salute to Jason Tatum. I've been wildly impressed by him in this playoff run. You know, this is, this is, this looks like a guy growing into into an all-time great right in front of our eyes. And it's been cool to watch. Yeah. And I think you hit on it. I mean, what has always been so transcendent with him is that bailout shot making. I mean, he's a guy who can make a shot for you at any time, at his size with his handle with his pure shooting ability, with his footwork and balance. And that will always be immensely valuable to any offense at any time.

I think there's some good contenders here. I mean, Jaws, game two was a masterpiece against the Warriors. There's been a couple of Luka games. I agree with you. I think Janus, game three, where he had 42, obviously tonight, I mean, he had 44 and 20 as well. I just think that in the two-way impact, the playmaking, the attention that he's attracting. I don't think anything can top that. But do you think Tatum has a case for having been the second best guy in these playoffs so far?

Ooh, now that is a spicy take there, Carson. Man. Yeah. I mean, why not? I don't think he's been better than Luca. Like, Luca's been a much better offensive player, but Tatum, what he's bringing on the defensive end has been great. there's been a lot of conversation about like guys guarding yannis like who's he comfortable against and who's he not comfortable against like not comfortable as he's starting to break through horford and grant williams a little bit definitely eating alive guys like uh like uh jelm brown but tatam's held his own what tatam's done on postups with yannis which has been really impressive is he's just gambling on the post entry or if not on the post entry but then on his first dribble tatum's got these obnoxiously long arms and he's like i'm not going to just like stay in front of yonis he's going to run me over. So he's just tested his handle, which is something he did a lot to Kevin Durant in the first

round and was really successful with it. He's just, he's like, I'm just going to reach for the ball, you know, and see what I can do. And he's knocked the ball away from him a bunch of times there. Yeah, I think you're right, Carson. I think Jason Tatum has been the second best player in this playoff run. Yeah, it's an interesting one because, you know, there's been some nights in the Bucs series where his offensive production wasn't there. The playmaking has been great, though. The defense has been great. And there's been some incredible scoring nights, obviously. I think Luca makes a really strong case because even despite the defensive gap offensively, I mean, just as an overall engine otherworldly and pure score. And, you know, maybe some people would argue that Jimmy's

knocking on the door. I don't think I could have him there. But like the scoring production, the playmaking, the efficiency, the two-way stuff, it has been pretty great from him. But I think those have got to be the top four guys in these playoffs so far, which is fascinating, obviously. No Cades, no Yonkich's. Like, it's a, it's a really, it's a really, interesting postseason that we have here. It's a new era, man. Can I tell you who I thought was the best performance of this playoff run? Yes, please.

I think Janus in game five in Boston was, and again, counting stats weren't as good. I think he only had 40. I think he had 40 and 11. But when you factor in what was happening in that game, when you, yeah, only, only 40 and 11. When you, when you factor in, the types of shots he was hitting at various points in the game,

what he did in that second quarter to stave off the first Boston run going into halftime, what he did early fourth quarter knocking down that massive three after Jalen Brown hit the step back, the three that he hit to break it down to three when they were up six late. The relentless attacking in the basket, the offensive rebound put back like he stole that basketball game. Now other guys made plays, Drew Holiday made plays, Bobby Portis made plays, but I thought Janice stole that basketball game

with just with nothing but sheer force of will. And so I had to go with that one. What do you think? I think you're absolutely right, actually. I threw out game three first. It's crazy. Like he has several masterpieces within this series, like genuine just could be legacy games kind of stuff.

But I think that that in terms of necessity, in terms of timeliness, I don't know that anything has topped that. So I think that's a great choice. All right, guys. Before we toss to our next breakdown, a couple things. Quick, for all of you who are listening, I sincerely appreciate the support. Please like this video and subscribe to the volumes YouTube channel. Before we move on to our full breakdown of the Bucks and the Celtics, here is a quick word from our sponsor. It's time to dig yourself out of that winter hibernation. Spring is here and it's time to get sprung with Blue Choo. That's right.

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Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from both. basketball to college football or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little kill? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English.

Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Throughout NBA history, there's been some pretty consistent phenomena that, phenomena that happen in these types.

of situations. In big-time NBA playoff games, when the physicality goes up another level, not that there wasn't physicality throughout this series, because obviously there was, but when it goes to an additional level, when the refs don't want to, you let their whistle be a factor in the outcome of the game, every even really good offensive players begin to struggle. And you'll see guys like Drew Holiday and Jalen Brown and guys like Derek, like Derek White was really good offensive player when he was in San Antonio. He made some big plays today. But you'll see, you know, guys like Grayson Allen, star offensive player back in college.

You'll see great basketball players of any ilk struggle in that environment because it's just extremely difficult to score the basketball in those settings. But there are two specific types of basketball players that have successfully been able to score in these environments. people that can go through you and people that can shoot over the top of you. And the two most recent examples that we've seen in NBA history is like a LeBron versus like a KD, right? Now, LeBron can do both. And that's why he's in the goat conversation. There's just not that many guys in NBA history that can have the physically imposing effect that LeBron has,

but also can just shoot over the top of you at any time that he needs to. which obviously has been a latter half of his career thing. And if Yonis figures that out, we might as well all just pack it in at some point. And he's made a lot of really big jump shots in this series. But those two specific archetypes went head to head tonight and had an epic duel. And those are the kinds of things that lead to legendary types of NBA playoff games that we watch on ESPN Classic and NBA TV down the line.

And those are the kinds of nights that make me feel thankful that I get to do this for a living. it's just incredible theater, it's incredible basketball, and it's so, so, so much fun to watch. But down the stretch of that game, you saw both teams executing their defensive game plan perfectly. And we're going to talk a little bit, we're going to get deeper into this concept later in the show, because I do think Milwaukee figured out some specific things that should make you feel, if you're a Bucks fan, more optimistic about game seven than you should be, after losing a game six at home like this, when Boston pretty much controlled you throughout the game.

But, you know, Jason Tatum on defense, or excuse me, on offense, is consistently being guarded by the likes of a Wesley Matthews or the likes of a Drew Holiday. He got some George Hill on switches, but he's consistently being guarded by shorter defensive players, right? And he has this advantage that nobody on Milwaukee, at least when he gets into those matchups, can do anything about it. And it's like, he can,

shoot over the top anytime he wants. And it's what allows him to have the, the, the ability to get that kind of shot volume off. I think he took like 15 threes tonight. I can't remember off top of my head, but he took a million threes tonight. And it's because when push came to shove, when the shit hit the fan, that's a release valve for Jason Tatum. He knows that if I can't get around you, if I can't go through you, I can just pull up over the top. And I trust my skill to knock a certain number of these down. And with Janice, it's the exact opposite. He's being guarded pretty consistently by bigger defenders, guys like Grant Williams, guys like Al Horford,

guys that have size and strength. But he just knows that like if I continually try to work my way through and around them, there's nothing that they can do with me. Janice has this really nifty trick that he does, that honestly, I don't know how the hell you officiate it. I don't know how the hell you do anything with it. It's definitely been coached into him, and it's absolutely genius.

but it's kind of like a chicken wing swim move where when he sees you standing directly in front of him, all he's trying to do is take that aggressive step to your shoulder. And when he drops his shoulder, he wants to raise that left elbow and hook it around your shoulder and pull himself around. If you guys watch him, he does that on almost every single play. And once he gets that elbow around you, you've lost your leverage and it's game over for you. And you saw him do that time and time and time again tonight. both players came out absolutely aware of the stakes both players attacked the first quarter in their own way yonis played one of the best quarters of basketball i have ever seen an NBA player play in that first

quarter and the bucks were down by two because jason tatum came out and immediately started reigning threes he hasn't shot the ball particularly well in this series um but he's been getting pretty decent looks and a lot of that has to do with the drop coverage that Milwaukee likes to run. And they do it with Janus too. And like there's a way in a drop coverage to make it harder on pull-up jump shooters by the big being what they call at the level of the screen. You'll hear color commentators talk about that sometimes you'll hear NBA analysts or writers talk about it. Basically what it means is if the guard is coming off of the screen as a shooter, if the big man is not at the level of the screen, the guard has an opportunity to

pull up and shoot. And one of the big concessions that the bucks have had to make in this series during the lion's share of the game, the vast majority of the game, is when Janus is in these coverages, they want him to drop and they want him to stay back at the basket, one, to protect the paint, but two, it's because of fatigue. Think about how much more ground you have to cover as a big man. If you have to be up at the screen for the shooter, but then as soon as you dissuade the shot, you have to recover back to a roll man and hope that your guard can get back into the play. It just makes you cover like twice as much ground in every pick and roll. So you could tell that Milwaukee was like when Brooks out there were dropping.

And with Janus, we're going to have him drop too because we just need to save his legs. Look at that Milwaukee offense tonight. Just about every single possession that wasn't initiated by Janus went very poorly. We're going to talk a little bit about Drew Holiday in a few minutes and one of the reasons why I think he's been struggling so much. But they needed Janice to create absolutely everything for them offensively so they had to sit him and drop as an energy saver. And here's the thing.

Jason Tatum, everything has a cause and effect. Every strategy decision you make has a downfall. The buck shutting off the paint the way they did all season led to them giving up more wide open threes than any team in the NBA. Anytime you make a strategic decision, you run the risk of it burning you in another area on the floor. And one of the interesting things that I thought happened in this game was Jason Tatum got a lot of really good looks off the dribble, three point shots and pull up twos because of Janice and Brooks staying super low in their drop. Now, what inevitably ends up happening is they go, they started this in game five. is in the fourth quarter they ditch brook they go yonis at the five they do a bunch more switching

and now those drop opportunities aren't there anymore and they did that again tonight at the end of the game but here's the problem at that point jason tatum had already made like five threes and like these things with jump shooting like especially when you're a tall guy like i'm i'm six six i'm pretty tall when i get my jump shot going especially against local competition and like men's leagues and stuff they can't like they're just too small if i get to to my release, it's over. It's all, it's, the result is in my hands. I'm either going to make it or I'm going to miss it. You're not going to dissuade me in any way. And that's kind of the predicament that you run into when you let Jason Tatum get going. Is there at the end of the game, Wesley Matthews and

Grayson Allen and Drew Holliday and George Hill and all them, they're, they're contesting the shots. They're not open. It just doesn't matter. It doesn't matter when you've got your rhythm. It's just not a very reliable thing. Pull-up jump shooting is one of the least reliable things in the game of basketball. And that's why, you know, Jason Tatum hasn't shot the ball particularly well through five games. And then tonight, he finally kind of broke through. But I thought that was an interesting strategy. And it's going to be really interesting to see as we move forward into game seven, whether or not Milwaukee goes to that earlier. Because once again, they nearly came back and won this game in the fourth quarter, by making that simple adjustment, let's put Janus at center,

let's switch everything and take away those drop coverage opportunities. I talked to you guys a lot after last game about why Boston fell apart in that fourth quarter. When you go into a switching defense, those break-free opportunities aren't there anymore. You coming off of a ball screen and having tons of area around you to get into a pull-up jump shot, those aren't air. There, a transition, those opportunities aren't there. A good switching defense is constantly connected to you. So as a result of that, there's no action you can run or no thing you can do to just get an easy, wide open shot. So as a result, there's only one way that you can attack a switching defense, and it's to apply rim pressure, to beat people off the dribble.

The switching defense is designed to stagnate you and get you to settle for pull-up jump shots. And one of the stats that I threw out in our last show, the telling stat of that fourth quarter in Game 5, Boston attempted zero three-point shots. They consistently went into like little high post-ups with Jalen Brown and Jason Tatum like 20, 22 feet from the basket. and Wesley Matthews and Drew Holiday consistently made them settle for jump shots. And tonight, they got some rim pressure against the switching, but not a lot. It was a lot of just Jason Tatum making shots over the top and Jalen Brown making shots over the top. And so that's the interesting dynamic about Milwaukee's switching defense is when they've gone to it in this series, Boston hasn't been able to drive by them enough. and as a result of that, Milwaukee's gotten Boston to settle, and in game five, they missed them and they lost, and in game six, they made them and they won.

And the very unique reason why this works is the types of defensive players that Milwaukee has on the floor. You know, when you're guarding a bigger wing that can shoot over the top, there's two options that you can go to to try to guard them. You can put a very big player on them that can give space and be a positional defender. Think like what Boris Dio did to LeBron in the 2013 finals. Like playing off of him, try to bait him into jump shots, and if he drives into you, you have size to hold your ground, right? But the second option there is to put a low center of gravity, shorter player who's very laterally quick because you do not have a foot speed advantage against them.

So specifically in this switching defense, it's devastating because if Wesley Matthews is guarding up on Jason Tatum on the perimeter. Tatum's not getting around him really, not easily. And if he is, he's doing it through size. He's like getting into his body and like spinning off of him and having to use physical leverage to get around. It's not like he can just rip through and get by Wesley Matthews. Wesley Matthews is going to slide and take that in his chest, you know, or a crossover.

Wesley Matthews is such a gifted defender. He's not going to do that. Drew Holliday is the exact same thing. So the weird quality of this Milwaukee defense is they have all these shorter guards that are very quick and super strong. So it's very difficult to get around them. And that's how they bait Boston into all of these pull-up jump shots. Now, the way you're supposed to counter that as an offensive player, when you were bigger wing and you got a small guard on you that's much quicker than you and you can't get around them, you have to fight. for position closer to the basket.

And that's just hard to do. It's hard to displace Wesley Matthews from post position. It's hard to displace through Holiday from post position because they're so strong. And so that's kind of the genius of this Milwaukee defense and the strategy that they've kind of uncovered at certain stretches of this series. And that, that to me is going to be the biggest indicator of Milwaukee's chances in game seven. I'm really curious to see if Mike Boodenholzer is willing.

to drop Brooke Lopez entirely or use him sparingly and do more switch it because Boston's offense consistently in the series has fallen apart when they switch. Boston is the better team. We've talked about this a lot. That's why I picked them. It's why they were a minus 200 favorite coming into the series. That's why they were a minus 190 favorite when it was 2-2. And my guess is they're a favorite now, even though I haven't seen the numbers yet. But the reason why they're favorite is they're more talented. They have more multifaceted offensive players, and they have the best defense in all of basketball. But they have a glaring weakness. And that glaring weaknesses, they do not have an offensive half-court surgeon. They do not have a player that understands,

you know, the flow of a basketball game, that understands the importance of shot selection, that understands the importance of keeping all of the other players in rhythm. And so, in these switching defense situations, it turns into a shot making contest. Into Boston's credit, they went in there tonight and they won with their shot making. The thing that concerns me for Boston moving forward is the shot selection wasn't great. If you guys remember, those of you have been following me on Twitter, and again, follow me on Twitter if you want to see video breakdowns of this kind of stuff. I tweeted out every offensive possession from game four, the game Boston won in Milwaukee.

I tweeted out every offensive possession from when it was 80 to 70, Milwaukee up, to Boston taking the 10-point lead. I think it was 96 to 86 or something like that. There was a 36 to 26 to 16 run, I think is what it was. And in that run, they got absolutely wide-open looks every time down the floor, just complete wide-open looks. Because of the fact that Milwaukee was not in their switching defense, because they were playing Brooke Lopez,

and it was just Jason Tatum coming off the ball screen, working his way into the lane and making kickouts to wide open shooters every single time down the floor. When Brooke Lopez wasn't in drop, or he was in that backline help, they'd tuck Al Horford in the corner, and they'd work their way into the lane,

and here would be Al Horford in the corner wide open. When I pull Boston's offensive possessions from the end of this game, they're not going to have a lot of wide open shots in there. And that's the trick there. You know, this is the advantage of having a guy who's just a relentless rim attacker. So think someone like Janus or someone like LeBron. Switching defenses do not work typically in terms of the structure the way they're supposed to work against those dynamic rim pressuring guys.

Because with the switch, as soon as you command help, you're in the same predicament. As soon as you have to send guys to help from the perimeter, shooters are open. Now we're in that rotation game. I always talk about that. Attack the close out, attack the close out, attack the close out, until you get a wide open shot. But if you take pull-up jump shots, you never force a help rotation.

If you never force a help rotation, you can't get wide-open looks. And so the dynamic in the chess match of game seven is going to be how often can Milwaukee get to their switching lineups or more, more importantly, how willing is coach Bootintholzer to go that route? How, like, is he willing to bench Brooke? Is he willing to ask Janice? Like, hey, man, I need you to guard up in a switch defense this entire game, as opposed to sitting and drop around the basket so that he can save his legs.

How often Milwaukee's willing to do that versus Boston, when they get to that situation, how willing is Jason Tatum? and Jalen Brown and Marcus Smart to attack the basket and to beat that matchup off the dribble to force help so that they can get into their dribble drive stuff. A couple of interesting wrinkles that I thought were possible kind of cures for this. Derek White was awesome tonight.

And one of the specific things that Derek White did was he got dribble penetration and he was a good cutter. So when Jason Tatum would be posting up and help would come from one side. That Derek White cut on the backdoor, that's another way to basically replicate dribble penetration. Because if Derek White catches it on the cut, somebody has to come in to help.

Now it's that same quality of kick out, attack the close out, attack the close out that you get from a dribble drive guy, right? So I think it might be interesting to look towards a little less of a Grant Williams, a little bit more of a Derek White, a little bit less of a Daniel Tice. Maybe you have to keep Grant Williams out there,

so you go away from Daniel Tice entirely, essentially going smaller and understand that it's going to hurt you on the glass a little bit, but you might get more dribble penetration. Because, again, the story of this series, guys, like, I picked Boston in five because they're the better basketball team. And I've laid that out.

And Janus has proved me wrong in a lot of different ways. And we're going to talk a little bit more about Janus here in just a minute. But the, the flip side in addition to the Janus thing has been Boston's offensive process at various points in this series. And I went on a big rant about this in game five. Boston's inability to stay on the right track offensively has led to their long scoring droughts that allow Milwaukee to get back into the game. That's been their biggest predicament. And so one of the things that they're probably

going to have to do to counter that is use smaller lineups so that they have more guys that can put the ball on the floor and get to the basket. And it's just, that's, again, I talk all the time about the predicament that great teams put you in. This is the predicament that a great team like Boston, or that a great team that Milwaukee puts you in. They put you in the predicament where you have to make a concession. And in this case, it's the offensive glass that gave up a bunch of offensive rebounds again tonight. That's going to continually be a problem in this series because of how big Milwaukee is. And, you know, as far as game seven goes, it's going to come down to, it's going to come

down to which team brings their best punch. I've talked a lot about how Boston has, Boston is the Jekyll and Hyde team of this playoff run. When they are on that right track offensively, they're very difficult to beat. They went into Milwaukee tonight and almost were up 20 in the second half. Like that's, that's how good this Boston team is. Down 3, 2 in a series, close out opportunity for Milwaukee. They went in there and pretty much kicked their butt all game long. So like that's how good Boston is when they're at. at their best. But I've also seen them blow a ton of double digit leads in this series. They've blown two games blowing double digit leads, and they damn near did it again tonight.

And so Boston has this ugly side. And so much of game seven comes down to which side of Boston shows up. I wanted to hit out a couple of quick notes before I give you guys my prediction for game seven. Janice. Did anybody think he wasn't going to put up 44 tonight? There was this thing that happened with LeBron in the 2018 postseason where the idea of him getting

42, 12, and 9 was like the safest bet in sports. I think he had, I remember correctly, like 8 40 point games in that playoff run. And he was going against great defenses, that Rafter defense was incredible, that Boston Celtics defense was that Indiana Pacer's defense was incredible.

All like just against really good defensive teams consistently in that playoff run, none of them could do anything with LeBron. And it be again, like if you were, I'm a LeBron fan, obviously. And like, I'd be getting ready to watch a game. It'd be 4 o'clock here in Tucson. And I'd sit down in front of the TV. And I would have concerns about what would happen in the game. But there's one thing I had absolutely no concern about.

And it was, is LeBron going to be great tonight? Yeah, he's going to be, he's going to be incredible. It was the safest bet. And that's one of the biggest things that I think is underrated when we're ranking players all time is the consistency. There are lots of guys that have huge playoff moments, like a game here or a game there where they play great. Kauai Leonard in 2019 looked like he might have been the best player in the world. And then the next year in the bubble, his jump shot stopped falling. and all of a sudden he wasn't impacting the game

in a bunch of other ways and you're like, oh, is this guy even a top five player? You know what I mean? Like the consistency wasn't there with Kauai. You know, I've seen C.J. McCollum in a game seven execute the Denver Nuggets on their home floor and look like one of the better three-level scores in the league. And then he just, the next night,

he won't be making his shot. You know what I mean? Like that's the that's the inconsistency that plagues the vast majority of players in the NBA. And what was so awesome about LeBron was like it was the safest bet in sports that he was going to be great every single playoff game. And Janus is doing that right before our eyes. It like you, I don't, we don't know for sure what's going to happen in game seven. I'll give my prediction here in a few minutes.

But there's one thing I know for damn sure. Janus is going to be the best player on the floor by a mile. And Boston's going to have absolutely nothing they can do with them. I can guarantee he's going to bring a hundred. percent effort. I can guarantee he's going to be a wrecking ball inside on both ends. That's a, it's a safe bet. If you're a Milwaukee fan, you don't have to sit on your couch and wonder about whether or not Janice is going to bring it in game seven. Sixers fans had no idea what they were going to get from Joel Embed and James Harden

the other night. You know, like, even with Steph Curry, you know, I love Steph Curry. He's one of my favorite players. I don't know what I'm going to get from him tonight. if he should he might shoot really well he might shoot poorly he might be sloppy with the basketball and have a bunch of turnovers i can i can depend on him to play hard and i know he's going to defend and and i know that he's going to have his impact that he has in the form of gravity in the way he can warp a defense but there are just very few guys in the league one arguably because of lebron's age that i can just guarantee he is going to dominate this next playoff game it's the safest bet in sports last note before i give you guys my prediction drew holiday this guy is the bane of bucks fans existence

in the sense that he's very inconsistent offensively obviously monster defensive player who's made a ton of huge pivotal defensive plays for this buck's team in the last two playoff runs and his value i think is undeniable and unassailable but i think there's a very unique reason why he's so inconsistent offensively and it has to do with a thing like Lakers fans who are listening that have been listening to me over the last couple of years, you'll recognize this specific thought process. But there are two different kinds of offensive players out there. There are offensive players that generate a lot of easy shots and then also can make tough shots. And then there are offensive players that only can and attempt

difficult shots. Like Drew Holliday, if you look at his shot selection, and it's not his fault. He's a six three guard who doesn't have amazing vertical lift. He's not the quickest guy in the world. He's he's a very good athlete, but it's more of like a strength and coordination and savvy and hand-eye. Like he's very good with his hands on defense and obviously very, very good athlete. But he's not the guy, he's not Jason Tatum. He can't just levitate over the top. He's not a guy

that consistently generates easy shots for himself to supplement his offense. And so if he's he's going to take 20 to 25 shots a night for this Bucks team, and the vast majority of them are going to be very difficult, then what does that mean? That means there's going to be nights where they go in and nights where they don't. That's why he goes 10 for 21, night and 5 for 20 to next. He doesn't get easy shots in his offense.

The guys that consistently have fuel percentage is over 50%, and consistently it's like 12 for 20, 13 for 20, 11 for 20, it's because they went 7 for 7 on their easy shots or 7 for 9 on the easy shots that they generate over the course of the game, and then they go 50% or less on their tough shots that they take. And so that's the thing. And this is the predicament of not having Chris Middleton is the Bucks need Drew Holiday to take a lot of shots.

They need him to take 20 to 25 shots every single night. And Chris Middleton is at his size, he can get easy shots in the flow of his offense. Like if he gets a small guy on a switch, it's like he's going to a fade away. but a 6-8 guy shooting a fade-away over a smaller defender is a high-percentage shot. You know, like that's a match-up thing, as all that is. Drew Holiday doesn't have the luxury of those types of shots. And so because Chris Middleton isn't there as a release valve, because of that, it puts you in a position where Drew Holiday has to take extremely difficult shots all night long,

and it's going to be inconsistent. And that's a swing factor for game seven. Will Drew make those shots or will he not? And we'll see. All right, guys. So I have to give you a prediction for game seven. And everything about what I know about these two teams screams at me that I should pick Boston. Boston has been the best team in the league since January 23rd.

They've been the best defense in the league all season, best defense in the league by country miles since January 23rd. They have demonstrated in this playoff run why their punch, their best punch is the best punch in all of the NBA right now. but I'm picking the bucks in game seven. And there's two reasons why. I trust Janice to go in there and impact winning on a level that is just about guaranteed. I think Mike Boodenholzer will go to switching. I think he will ditch Brooke or use him very sparingly and do a ton of switching.

I think they have enough data on that now and enough film to demonstrate. that that's their best option. I don't trust Boston. Guys, if Boston plays smart offense, not just against the drop, but against the switch and applies rim pressure and attempts to drive to the basket, Boston will win, okay?

So for all you Celtics fans listening, Boston will win if they play smart. I'm saying that I trust Janus more than I trust Boston to play smart. It's that simple. I just, they have, despite all,

All the evidence in the world of the way that Boston needs to play, they have consistently in almost every game of the series, gone through extended stretches where they forget that. They've gone through extended stretches where they play the wrong way. And so when it comes to betting or making a prediction, I have to go with the guy that I can count on to play exactly the way he needs to to win the game. And that's honest.

But yes, Boston fans, if Boston plays smart and plays the right way on offense and attacks their switching defense by putting pressure on the rim. Boston will win. And then we'll have an epic seven game series between Boston and Miami. But my prediction right now, my not very inspiring prediction is that

Milwaukee will win in game seven. Hi, it's Colin Coward. I started the volume to bring you some of the most authentic voices in sports. While you're here, make sure you hit subscribe. Thanks. All right, guys, that is all I have. for tonight. As always, I sincerely appreciate your support. All of you guys who came

to watch the video today, if you could do me a favor and like this video, I would really appreciate that. We are off tomorrow, no games, but we have two massive game sevens on Sunday. We will be going live after both of them, and I hope to see all of you guys there. The volume.

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