The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Warriors the NBA's best team? Lebron's Longevity, + best bets for 22-23' season

Episode Date: October 7, 2022

Jason Timpf gives his thoughts on the NBA's GM survey.  Plus, Jason give his best picks for the upcoming NBA season. #volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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What's up guys? It's Jason from Hoops Tonight, presented by Fanduel. Football season is here, and there is no better place to get in on the action than with Fanduil. It's my favorite sports gambling app out there. It's safe, secure, and easy to use. They have exclusive offers, tons of ways to play like spread and money line over unders, team totals. Same game parlays where you can combine multiple bets from the same game.

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Twitter underscore Jason LT, so you guys don't miss any show announcements and any footage breakdowns that we do. And last but at least, if for whatever reason you miss one of these videos and you can't get over to YouTube to finish, you can find them wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops Tonight. And on that note, let's bring Carson in. How's it going, man? It is great, Jason. How are you? I'm doing well. It's good to see you, buddy. Good to see you too. Well, as you said, we're going to start with the betting portion here, get some of your favorite picks ahead of the NBA season.

All these odds are provided by Fandul, and as of the time, we're recording this on October 5th are accurate, so things may change a bit, but correct for now. So we'll start with the biggest one, Jason. You look at all the odds for these teams in the preseason. What is your favorite title bet right now? Oh, man, that's a good question, because there's a difference between what is the team

that I actually believe is going to win the title. and then betting opportunities, right? I thought it was really interesting that the Warriors had the third best odds at plus 700. That feels like a pretty safe bet to me in terms of the odds versus potential reward. I think that the Warriors have the best combination of talent, basketball IQ, competent coaching and upper management, experience and continuity in the league. There are three other teams that have similar amounts of talent, maybe even four if you consider teams like the Philadelphia 76ers,

but they all have big question marks somewhere on the roster. The Warriors are a team without question marks. So if you can get a team like that, plus 700, knowing that they've been there, done that, that they know how to handle adversity along the way. They weathered injuries last year, a lot more injuries than people are willing to give them credit for. I like them at plus 700.

A couple other bets that I like, though, as long-shot bets is like interesting opportunities as far as odds go. You get the Sixers at plus-600. I think they have one of the most talented rosters in the league. I had them as the fifth most likely team to win the title in my preseason power rankings. My James Hardin agenda is in full force with him allegedly being in much better shape coming into the season. I'm excited to see him play in some preseason action. I just am a big believer in them as a pretty decent puncher's chance to win the title. So to get them at plus 1,600. And then last but not

least, Dallas at plus 2,700. Luka plus a good defense. And if their role players stay hot and shoot the way they did in the first two rounds of the playoffs, they can beat anybody and they demonstrated that, they demonstrated that last year. So those are my three favorites right now. I think those are all really good value plays. Like you said, it's interesting.

I mean, the Brooklyn Nets and the Golden State Warriors have the same odds to win the title right now after completely polar opposites season last year. The only other one I might consider sprinkling in there, Nuggets plus 2,000, so 20 to 1. I don't think they're going to be good enough defensively to win it, but I think they could have the best offense in the league, and that'll give you a puncher's chance. But I really like all those choices.

Okay. Who is your favorite MVP bet for this season, Jason? Okay, so MVP is quickly becoming my least favorite award that they give out every year just because it's becomes, it's become so much more of, like, weird, like, hipster movement than it is about the best basketball player. And I know, I know you, I feel like, that's just straight blasphemy to you, Carson, as such a huge Nicoliochich fan. But it's just one of those

things where I feel like sometimes this, I feel like this is the award that NBA media overthinks the most. And so in this particular season, I really like Janus at plus 700. He's still a complete machine on both ends of the floor in the regular season. He plays hard every single night. I think he's the best defensive player in basketball. He's going to sleep block to 30 points and 12 rebounds, right? And so if the Bucks have a bounce back season with better health and Brooke Lopez is available, like he wasn't last year for the, for the most part, they end up in the high 50s or low 60s with wins. Yon is standing right there. And that voter fatigue from him winning two years in a row, I think is gone now after everything that's gone on

with Yokic. And I think in general, people are forgetting just how much better he is than just about everybody in the entire league. This feels like kind of like a reminder. type of season from him. So I like him at plus 700. My favorite long shot bets, Tatum at plus 1,300. We're going to talk about this later when we talk over and over unders, but I really think the Celtics are going to win a lot of games this year. And here's the thing. Let's say the Celtics are the one seed. And they've won 62, 63 games or 60 games or something like that. And Tatum is their leading score or close. And he makes an all defense team. And he's obviously the best player on this best team in the Eastern Conference. That's just kind of like a textbook MVP case.

So it's just an interesting long shot bet at plus 1,300. And then Steph, the exact same type of case, like proven playoff history that legitimizes everything he does in the regular season. The Western Conference is got a lot of teams with question marks and the Warriors are one of the few teams that don't have question marks. So if they end up as the one seed and they win in the high 50s, low 60s, Steph is far and away the best player on the team. It's just a text spoke MVP case. So him being down at plus 1,500 feels like a really interesting opportunity to me. I like all those choices that you highlighted there. Luca is the favorite entering the season. I believe for the second straight year. What's your reaction to that?

I just, and I know, your Yokic guy had to ruin this again last year. Same goes for Russell Westbrook in 2017, but like my gut just says the Mavericks just won't win enough games. Like if I told you that everything went really well for the Mavericks this year, where do you think they would end up in the standings? Like maybe third, maybe if things went really well, probably fourth or fifth. And if I told you the Mavericks were going to be in the playing tournament, you wouldn't be the least bit surprised. They did lose some ball handling this summer as well with Jalen Brunson. So I just, I'd like to say that they don't have the capability of racking up enough wins for, Luca to get that award, but then again, we keep having that be overruled by once again,

hipster NBA media and their love of getting behind the movement of regular season players that put up big numbers for teams that are only okay. Sorry, Carson, I'll take no more side swipes at you and Yokic in the show, I promise. Really not a fair characterization of what Nicole Yokic did last year. The number one has played at a 51-win pace when he was on the floor, Jason, Monta-Morris was their primary perimeter initiator, but you're completely right about this historical precedent. And we have seen it waver a bit because Nico Eokic is the best offensive player alive and he's carrying these bum squads to be, you know, play like elite teams when he's out there. But between Michael Jordan in 1988 and Russell

Westbrook in 2017, every single MVP between those two was a top two seed in their conference. So, you know, unless we've completely gone away from that precedent, you should be right. That's what I've thought about Luke in the last two years. They're not going to win enough games. And that's why if you like Janus has got to be the choice, right? He's the best two player in the world on two-way player in the world on an elite team. Maybe if Embed could be trusted to be healthy for an entire season, he would be an equally good choice, but I think it's got to be honest,

especially given that he's not even the favorite. So one other note on the Luca thing, and I lied because I'm going to take one more shot at Yokic. So one of the things that helped legitimize his MVP case was the Yokic is a good defender thing. And, again, like, you just need a narrative to drive. that. So with Yokic, it was like, oh, he's a good drop coverage big. He defends the rim well. You know, over the course of the regular season, he's actually a net plus defender, all those

things, which were actually true. But we all knew that there was a lack of legitimacy there as it pertained to what would happen when teams really game plan to attack him in a playoff series. I don't think Luca could get that. I don't think, I think in order for him to get the narrative support from the NBA media, he would have to come up with a legitimate case that he's a plus defender. And I just don't even see a universe where that's the case. Because even Steph in 2015 and 2016 had built a narrative that he was a at least an average to slightly above average defensive player, Luca is so far from that at this point. It's just that that that would be such a stay away from me, stay away from that it's just something I wouldn't touch with the 10 foot

pole. Totally with you on the Luca points. Not sure we need all the Yokic references. But yet, Russell Westbrook, one MVP, in spite of all these things, didn't have teams. success, didn't have defense, didn't have efficiency, and he put up a lot of big numbers, and he got it. So we'll see. It seems that some of the historical standards have wavered a bit. Okay. Yes, they have. When you look, but Yolka, just not the example to point out because he's incredible. I promise I promise. I promise. Okay, thank you. Let's move on. What's your favorite team win total over under for this season? Okay, so I had mentioned the Celtics earlier. A couple things. So they're over under right now, according to Fanduel, is 53 and a half. And I get it,

it's two and a half more than last year. They only won 51 games. But they started last year, 17 and 21. That's one hell of a buffer that they basically played against throughout the season. They finished the season 33 and 10. And unlike the Dallas Mavericks who, in the Phoenix Suns, who put up big numbers there, but had major playoff shortcomings that undercut that, the Celtics you know, translated that success into something that we knew was legitimate based on what happened in the playoffs. Now,

usually, there's some history to the idea that, like, you are what your record says you are. So, like, if you suck for a third of the year, and then you're awesome for two thirds of the year.

And the result is your 51 and 31. And chances are you're 51 and 31 team. I get that. But I actually believe this was a case of a team that discovered its identity and actually took a leap in who they were as a basketball team. I also think that the reps. that they got in that playoff run, the development of Tatum. I don't know if you saw Jaylen Brown in his first preseason game,

but he's picking up right where he left off in that playoff run. He's actually, I think, a little bit better of a score than Tatum is, at this point, at least in terms of versatility of where he gets his points on the floor. Like, they're just damn good. And I think they're going to win a ton of games. And they added Malcolm Brogden, who specifically targeted one of their biggest weaknesses. I understand the depth issues. I understand the Robert Williams injury concerns,

but I actually think, and I went over this in depth that our Boston Celtics season preview pod, but there's a lot of bad that comes with Robert Williams, too. He freelances way too much. He actually is responsible for a lot of their defensive breakdowns. He causes some issues for their spacing and their driving kick. I like Robert Williams.

He's good for them, but I think they're just as good without him. So as long as they don't suffer some sort of significant injury, I don't see any universe where they finish with fewer than 55. wins. Do you have a team that you think is more of a sleeper where maybe the number is a little bit lower, but you really like it? So the two that I put down as potential other opportunities, the Sixers at 50.5, again, their talent is ridiculous. Again, I know there's not a lot of, you know, Tyrese maxi has flaws. He's not a great defensive player. And there's a question about whether or not he

can be a great primary creator. Or Tobias Harris, obviously, can be extremely mediocre from time to time. But when he's the fourth best player on your roster, and Max, he's the third best player on your roster, and they've already been dealing with all this bad luck with MB. He's due for a better luck year. And James Hardin potentially having a bounce back season. I think they're one of the most talented teams in the Eastern Conference. I could see them winning a lot.

And then as far as a safe bet goes, the Lakers under 44 and a half, I still believe in their ultimate ceiling. I think Anthony Davis is going to have an amazing season. I think LeBron James is going to have an amazing season. But like if you're assigning percentage chances that things are going to go one way or another, you know, if you were saying which side is the things go right and they end up a top four seed and contend in the West versus things go off the rails quickly and horrifically, like it's a better than 50% chance that the negative side happens. And so as a bet, for them to go under 44 and a half, you literally just need LeBron or Anthony Davis

to miss maybe 20 games because they are so talent deprived that if one of those guys goes down, they instantly become the underdog in every single game they play. Like do you think that Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, Patrick Beverly, and Dennis Schroeder can go beat the Detroit Pistons in Detroit?

Like, I don't think they can. like they're that they're so devoid of talent that if lebron james and anthony davis aren't on the floor playing at the top of their games they're just not a good basketball team so even though there's a good chance they go over that because of lebron and ad on a revenge tour there's just so much opportunity for that to go off the rails and 44 and a half is such a large number in a stacked western conference i like that as a decent opportunity as an under i like both those and just to give more context to your philly pick which by the way i also really like for the title at 16 to 1.

They won 51 games last year, and now you think Maxie will be improved, Hardin should be in much better form, they added some quality role players. The last one I would throw out there that I'm sure a lot of people are looking at and probably like is the Pelicans at only 43 and a half. I think that number might have already come up a bit,

but it feels like, you know, if Zion's healthy for 60 plus games, I don't see how that number doesn't hit for a team that was top 10 on both ends of the ball post-all-star break last year and still has young development. talent. The one thing that'll be interesting to kind of factor in here is not so much for the lower level teams and when we're talking about the upper level teams. So like part of the reason

why the Celtics, bucks, clippers, warriors, like all these teams, Sixers have somewhat low over unders is the league is considered deeper with talent than ever, which it absolutely is. There's a good reason for people to feel that way. But the reality is, is Victor Wenamianama is available this and I've we Carson and I were chatting about it before the show just just just freaking out about all the amazing potential that he has in the NBA but like with Victor on the table with Scoot Henderson on the table

there's I'm not super informed on this draft but I've heard that it's that can even go deeper than that with players that are considered potential star prospects you could see a lot of teams towards the bottom of the league really pack it in sooner than later and what inevitably ends up happening with that is it inflates win totals for the top the top team so for instance in 2020 when the bucks uh had the best record in the league and yonis won MVP i was screaming from the mountaintops that like the bottom of the eastern conference was just atrocious like they were truly awful and they the bucks racked up like 20 wins against garbage teams and beat them all by like 25 and it inflated all their advanced metrics and inflated them in the standings. The West was a blood bath that year,

and the Lakers were only like three games behind them in the standings. I thought LeBron should have won the MVP that year. That's kind of my thought process there is like if this particular draft drives a bunch of teams towards the bottom, if you have a year where instead of two or three teams tanking, you have six or seven teams tanking, you're going to have a lot of teams that go from 54 win seasons to 59 win seasons, just because they're going to have easy wins on the schedule. So overs at the top of the league, I think, become more. interesting as the draft it becomes more interesting i like that logic a lot nobody won under 20 games

last year in the whole league i could see three or four doing that this year although there is also so much great competition at the top that you wonder if any one or two teams is going to totally pull away okay jason exactly give me your give me your favorite player prop for this season okay so my favorite is go bear at plus 450 to win defensive player of the year So here's why. First of all, Minnesota, he's a regular season defense machine because of the way that drop coverage functions so well during the NBA regular season. Also, that team has a bunch of hype around it, so they're going to play really hard every night.

They're going to almost immediately be a top 10 defense, maybe even top five, right? So from that standpoint, you have the refresh on voter fatigue because he's in a new situation, even though there's a bunch of things that are going to lead to that. Like, for instance, you know, Anthony Edwards potentially making improvements. You know, Carl Towns moving to the four, you're going to have a ton of size all over the floor. There's going to be a lot of reasons why Minnesota is going to be better this year. But just in terms of the narrative, all of the credits are going to go to Gobert. And with him being in a new situation, the refresh on the voter fatigue,

plus 450 for Gobert to win defensive player of the year. I really liked that. The other three that I really liked, James Hardin is plus 190 to average 24 points per game. Now, why I like that is not only do I believe that he's going to be much better this season, it's clear that that's his mentality. He said in Media Day that he believes he can win MVP this year. So up here, he still thinks he's 2018 James Harden. If that affects his shot profile at all, this guy is so gifted at manufacturing.

points. I think in the in the player rankings, I pointed out that James Hardin draws a foul still on like 28% of his isolations. That's insane. Almost almost almost one out of every three times he isolates a defender. He draws a foul. So he's just so good at manufacturing points. And that's such a low threshold, 24 points per game to get that at plus 190. Anthony Davis, if you believe in his revenge campaign is plus 270 to average 26 points per game. And then Yannis, is plus 420 to lead the league in scoring. All the guys that were at the top of the league last year, LeBron James.

This year, Anthony Davis is going to be back. They have more ball handling with Kendrick Nunn, right? And Dennis Schroeder. So the Lakers, their scoring is going to be more dispersed. LeBron's scoring should come down. You look at the Sixers, Joel Embed, was near the top of that list last year. With the return of James Harden, hopefully back to what he was,

Tyrese Macs' development, you could see M.B. He's scoring ticked down from 31 points a game to like 28 as that gets dispersed more. Kevin Durant spent most of the season playing without Kyrie Irving last year. Kyrie Irving back in the picture this year. Ben Simmons in the picture. You could see a little bit more dispersion of scoring driving the average for Kevin Durant down. Those guys could be closer to 27, 28. Janus, you can book him for 30 every single night.

He did it last year with Middleton and Drew. He'll do it this year with Middleton and Drew. So for him at plus 420 to lead the league in scoring, I really like that as a potential player prop. I like those. I like that you're sticking with the revenge tour themes for AD and Hardin. And it is reasonable. It's good value. I mean, you know, for AD 26 a game was like automatic for four straight years.

Harden even two years ago in Brooklyn when he was more geared towards playmaking was still putting up almost 25. So I like all those numbers. All right. Let's keep it moving here and talk about this GM survey. So we'll start again with the most important thing on the menu, the NBA title. Only four teams received votes from all the GMs as their title favorite. The Bucks, the Warriors, the Clippers, and the Celtics. What's your reaction to that, Jason?

So when I was looking at the GM survey, I look at it from a couple different angles, getting different perspectives of where people, where general managers around the league see the game going, which players that they prefer. And then also it's just a great chance to kind of see how, you know, because I, it's funny. When I started doing this show, I like so many of you guys, the fans of the show, like I listen to every single basketball podcast. I listen to Bill Simmons. I'd listen to Zach Lowe. I'd listen to, you know, Pete Zayas who runs Laker Film Room. I listen to like a half dozen different basketball podcasts. And I still occasionally do, but nowhere near as much. And one of the big reasons why is I don't

want them to color my analysis. I want to come at it with an unbiased perspective. reach my own conclusions to the best of my ability. And it's good to see how the way that I see the game, if it actually stacks up with some things that GMs around the league see the game, or if there's disagreement, because that doesn't necessarily mean I'm wrong either. It's different perspective, right? And so this was an example where I saw an immediate parallel, because I saw a top tier and then a big drop-off. I saw Clippers, bucks, warriors, and Celtics. And to see that the other four, or that the other GMs in the league viewed those four as the only teams that really had a good, legitimate chance to win the title. It just shows that, that at least in this

particular case, our line of thinking is in line with what most of the front offices around the league are thinking. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all. Embedded in the game. games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where

you need to be. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to? I do a little kill. Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS.

on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I think that it is honestly a pretty solid tier of the top four, in my opinion.

And I also would not say that I'm overly surprised by seeing the GM results reflect. like that. Okay, something else that stood out. There was a lot of love given to Steph and to the Warriors offense. Makes sense given that they just won the title, but Steph was awarded as the player who causes teams to make the most adjustments. The Warriors were given best offense. So what's your reaction to that? And do you expect them to be the best team in the league this year? So I expect them to be the, I have them as number one in my power rankings, meaning I expect them to be the best team with the biggest likelihood to win the title. But specifically on the offensive end, I don't think, you know, in that GM survey,

they specifically said that the Warriors run the best offense in the league. Now, that to me is a separate topic from production, offensive production, because the Warriors were 16th in offense last year. And as you go back in time, like the 2020, the 2022 title went to the Golden State Warriors, who were an unbelievable defensive team and an average half-court offense. Then we go to last year with the Milwaukee Bucks, and it's like they were one of the best defensive teams in the league,

and their offense got clunky when they got in the half court. And then we go to the 2020 Lakers, and they were the best defense in the league, and their offense got really clunky in the half court. And the main reason why is, one, they play defensive personnel, and then two, they devote large portions of energy and effort to the defensive end of the floor.

For instance, I think Denver is going to finish with the best offense overall by offensive rating in basketball this year. Big part of that is they prioritize offensive personnel. They believe that they're a better team with Michael Porter Jr. Giving up more points on defense than they are with going with a 3-and-D wing and limiting what they can do on the offensive end of the four. Even with their effort and focus and energy, they're not devoting as much effort to the defensive end as teams like the Warriors and the Bucks are, right? And so in terms of offensive rating, I don't think the Warriors will be towards the top.

But it is important to acknowledge that they do run by far the most sophisticated offense in the league. In every single metric in terms of screening actions run, they're miles ahead of the other teams in the league. When I was doing my season preview, the vast majority of teams are just running a basic motion when they come up the floor in live ball situations. Maybe a ball screen, maybe a dribble handoff. not a whole lot going on in terms of player movement. And then they'll run sets out of dead ball situations. So like free throws or occasionally after a made basket or out of a timeout. The Warriors run sets almost every time down the floor.

They get down, they get in their five out, and they run multiple interchanges every single time. It's one of the big ways that allows them to have their offense translate to success in the postseason. Teams are just not even used to guarding teams that run. sets as often as they do. So it's important to acknowledge that the Warriors run the most sophisticated offense in the league. But in terms of production, they'll never be as high as the other teams in the league because they play guys like Draymond and Andrew Wiggins, who are defensive-minded role players. And they devote large portions of their energy and focus and attention to the defensive end of the floor. And then last but at least, there was a little plug for Steph Curry.

they said that Steph Curry is the player that commands teams to make the most adjustments. And that just goes right back to what we were saying. Every other player that you're guarding that's at the top of the league, whether that's Luca Donchitz or LeBron or Kevin Durant, or even with the post players, it's maybe a double and recover scheme. But with those other heliocentric players, it's like you're setting up pick and roll coverages. You're talking about where help is coming from.

But like when you played seven or eight games in a row and you get to the Golden State War, game. It's like everything's got to be crumpled up and thrown it in the trash because like now everything we're doing to guard this team has to be specifically catered to them. And so when I saw that that point about Steph Curry being the player that dictates the most adjustments, I thought that was a really interesting piece of information coming from the front offices because that means that they they see what we all see, which is they're just very different from every other team in the league. They command you to play a completely different way. I talked about in the season preview, the Warriors almost always go up to 1 in a 2-0 in a

playoff series. It's very rare for them to lose a game like they did in game one against the Celtics in the finals. And even in that game, they controlled the game through three quarters. They just blew it with a bad fourth quarter. They catch every team off guard with what they do offensively. And it's a huge part of what allows them to get early advantages in series. And when you're up 2-0, it's like, man, I just need to win two of the next five games.

It buys you a lot of leeway. And so I just, I thought it was cool to see the GMs acknowledge that. They're the most sophisticated offensive team in the league, and I don't think it's particularly close. I think you make a really interesting point, though, with this question about sort of the results versus the methodology split, almost, or the method, just the structure of the offense, because there's a pretty strong consensus. 38% of GMs said that the Warriors would have the most efficient offense in basketball. And like you said, I mean, even last year with Steph on the football. floor they played it just below the fifth best offensive level in the league and the most adjustments question is very interesting step makes a ton of sense and the top five overall is very logical it's

janus yokech and bead and lucas so you know i would think that's pretty much what you would expect those are really overwhelming offensive forces who demand those you know entire shifts in scheme and approach so there's a lot from the mba gm survey that will get grabbed and highlighted people love to look at MVP favorite, title favorite, oftentimes who's the player that GMs would most like to have five years from now. What were your favorite selections out of this whole survey that may not have grabbed those headlines as much? So I put down two. For starters, I thought it was really interesting that they said the two best coaches in the league were Spolstra and Kerr. Once again, that has mimicked something I've been saying all summer long. So it's just,

good to see that that we're reaching similar conclusions to the guys that do this for the big bucks. You know what I mean? And just they split that into two separate dynamics. They think that Spolcher runs the most sophisticated defensive schemes that immediately brought me to the way that they almost completely erased Joel Embed from the Eastern Conference semis with that kind of like that bracketing scheme where they were fronting him and offering backside help. They're really good at taking you out of what you like to do and making you do stuff that you don't want to do. They're very malleable, willing to make adjustments. That staff is really impressive. And then we just talked about everything that Steve Kerr does on the offensive end of

the floor. So it was cool to see that represented in the GM survey. And then the second one I put Malcolm Brogden as the one, the underrated player acquisition question. I still don't think people realize just how much he's going to help Boston. And, you know, Marcus Smart kind of does a lot of what Brogden does, but in a way more volatile way, he can go off script, take bad shots a lot of the time, and just try to do too much from time to time. And I like Marcus Smart, but he just, he wasn't enough to fix the ball handling issues that Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown brought to the table. Having Malcolm Brogden out there, and immediately you saw it in the preseason opener, I think he had nine assists in that game, especially when he was running the offense with

bench unit to start the second quarter. He's just got such a natural feel for running an offense out of high pick and roll with the intention of generating driving kick opportunities. He already has a natural chemistry with Grant Williams. They have a good connection with each other on how to relocate to get good shots and Brogden's always hunting him. He's getting the ball to players on time and on target. That's an underrated ability as a passer. When you factor in the athleticism of these players, especially in the late run. of the playoffs. Like, if you throw the pass a little bit low into the side and the guy has to bobble it or go out of his way to catch it before he can get balanced again, that fraction of a

second can be long enough for a great athlete to close out and to take the shot opportunity away. Malcolm Brogden's precision with the way he locates, passes to shooters on the wing will open up that driving kick game that Boston is so good at. I just, I think he's a huge influx of talent that directly attacks one of their very specific needs and weaknesses. I agreed that it was the most underrated player acquisition of the summer. A lot of people are down on the Celtics. I don't understand why. It's like,

oh, they would have lost to the Bucks if it wasn't for Chris Middleton. You're right. But then the Bucks didn't get better and the Celtics got better. And, you know, Tatum and Brown are rapidly ascending. And like Robert Williams was playing with a bulky knee during the entire playoffs.

Like, they're going to be better too. And I think we're too quick. And if it wasn't for Jason Tatum completely falling apart in the NBA finals, they might be the defending champs. I think teams, I know they're the Vegas favorite. That's the funny subplot here is the Celtics are actually the Vegas favorite right now. But in terms of the sentiment that I pick up talking to people and what I see on Twitter, it seems like people are too low on the Celtics right now and that puzzles me.

I'm with you. And I think that the Brogden pickup is massive. I mean, you mentioned just the versatility, the stability that he brings to an offense. He's been 25 and 6 on solid efficiency and was going to compete defensively for the last couple years. And I think introduce him into a role where he doesn't have to try to be a, you know, leading star offensive force and he can settle in as like a third option. I think he will do some really great things as a playmaker and then also getting his own, just a really good all-around player.

So let's flip here from sort of. of pleasant surprises, some of your favorites with that last one. To what disappointed you most about this survey? So I put two things. One, a couple of picks that I disagreed with. And then two, a formatting thing that didn't make any sense to me. So first of all, for Best Perimeter Defender in the NBA, they put Marcus Smart and Drew Holiday as the top two.

And I just don't think that you can put small players at the top. of the league. That doesn't mean that those guys aren't good defensive players. They are. Like Drew Holliday is incredible. Marcus Smart literally just won defensive player of the year, although I disagreed with that pick. When you look at those guys, they're great perimeter contained guys. They can get into ball handlers, but their size does add an element of matchup attacking. You see Drew Holliday struggle with bigger wings from time to time, especially the bigger, stronger ones like the Quile Lennards and LeBron Jameses of the world. I still prefer the bigger wing. And then the other

thing too is perimeter defense to me is not just about dribble contain it's also about the ability to rotate as as plays breakdown in a driving kick system and so for me i look at like guys like jason tatum guys like mcale bridges guys like andrew wiggins guys like ben simmons that six seven to six 10 long arms freak athlete that can contain the ball but also cover tons of ground in rotation and it be kind of frightening there but also hold their own against mismatches against bigger wings that might try to back them down. Like, could any of those guys guard Janus, no, but neither can Drew Holliday and Marcus Smart.

But I just prefer that archetype, and I disagreed with that. As far as the kind of formatting thing that I disagreed with, they ordered the player rankings by position type, and that just screwed everything up, because then it was like, Steph Curry's the best point guard, Devin Booker's the best two guard. And then they go right to the forwards.

And so then you're getting into your LeBrons, your KDs and your Janus and stuff like that. And what bothered me about that is I'm sitting there thinking, like, so you're saying the two best perimeter players in the league are Steph Curry and Devin Booker? Like at a certain point, like the one, two, three, four, five thing means literally nothing now. It means literally nothing. I would say maybe the five, when you're talking about pick and roll coverages, you can, it's like a specific position. And like maybe your play, the guy who brings the ball up,

the floor versus the guy that runs the wings. Yeah, like, I simplified it down in my season previews to guards, wings, bigs. That's what it is. That's the way they need to rank these things. Then it comes out weird where like, why isn't Luca Donchich near the top of that list? Like, like, he's, you know, behind Booker as a two guard, but also behind Steph as a point guard. That just doesn't make any sense. So at a certain point, like, I know the positionless thing gets thrown around a little too much, but the reality is, is like, we don't have a shooting guard anymore. That's not a thing in the NBA. We have we have guards,

we have wings, we have bigs. That's what we have. That's the way it should be ordered from that one. And to take your point even further, I think there's an argument that shooting guards specifically will consistently be a weaker position because of the way that they classify it in that historical sense. Most of the great scoring guards convert to primary ball handlers. James Harder goes from being a quote unquote shooting guard to, okay, now he's running the entire office. is going to be a point guard. So to be a shooting guard, you probably need to have some sort of playmaking limitation. Like it's Devin-Booker, DeMarie Doeux, and Zach Levine, Bradley Beale. None of those guys are like lead playmaker type. So I couldn't agree with you more. I mean,

you're disqualifying players. Luca Donchich is a shooting guard size. But yeah, he's a primary ball handler. So he's clearly better. Do away with it. I think do away with it across the board, down to certainly the five specific positions. I think that's just ridiculous. And I agree with you on the best perimeter defender point. I thought it should have been Ben Simmons, and he was in the others receiving votes category. But last time we saw him out there, I thought he was the best perimeter defender on the planet.

So, you know, it's very interesting. Obviously, all these results, but I completely agree with both those things that you highlighted there. So one last one last note really quick, really quickly, really quickly, on the position types thing. You can get really crazy with like different archetypes.

Like it is more complicated than guard wing big, but it's certainly, is not point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power. Like, it's more like you have your primary ball handlers and they need to be able to shoot off the dribble because if they can't shoot off the dribble, then you can't run pick and roll with them. Then you have like movement shooters, guys that you run off of screens, right? You might have high post threats, low post threats. You have guys who screen and run to the rim or screen and pop to the three point line. There's all these different archetypes of offensive players, but I'm just saying they don't fall into position

groupings. And we were just talking before the show that Victor Wenbanyama might be a movement shooter and he's a five. So like at the end of the day, it's like your skill set slots you into a specific archetype of player, but not a position. That's the, that's the line of thinking we've got a ditch. Completely agree with you there. We got one last question because LeBron still made his mark on this survey. He was ranked the fifth most athletic and the second most versatile player in the entire NBA. What are your expectations for him in year 20? You know, health is going to be the big thing. I mean, he was cruising right along last year,

and then one day he woke up and his knee was swollen. But I think, you know, I saw that LeBron is the fifth most athletic player in the league, and I was like, man, that's probably right. I'm sure you guys all saw that clip from the training camp last week where he dunked all over. I'm blanking on his name now, but the big white dude shot blocker that the Lakers have

that played in the G league last year. And I'm just sitting there, And I'm like, how many players in the league are doing that right now? And there was a, I don't know if you saw this, Carson. There was a missed dunk from Scotty Barnes in the Raptor's first preseason game at the end of the first quarter. And he kind of, it was eerily reminiscent to LeBron's dunk on Yusuf Nurkich back in 2018, the ridiculous one that had J.R. Smith freaking out running out onto the floor. Scotty Barnes kind of starts really high and they run like a ball screen kind of almost at, like half court, and he gets downhill, and he takes off from the same spot LeBron did,

and gets rim-stuffed, and he wasn't high enough. He didn't get there. And I'm sitting there thinking, I'm like, at 33, LeBron dunked that over somebody, like the exact same type of movement. And we consider Scotty Barnes one of the most young, one of the best young athletes in the entire league. Like, he's kind of like a mini Janus in a lot of different ways. So, like, you know, it's just a ridiculous testament to the way he's taking care of his body and just the type of unicorn athletic prospect that he was. And then he got voted the second most versatile player in the league as well as you had mentioned. That's what's keeping him around in this league in terms of his overall impact. As he's gotten older, he's improved massively in all of the areas.

He was weaker as a younger player. He's still one of the more efficient ISO players in the league. He's still one of the more efficient post-up players in the league. He's efficient as a pull-up jump shooter now. his rim finishing. We talked about this over the off season. Janus was considered one of the very... Janus was the best rim finisher in basketball this year

with like 6.7 makes per game in the restricted area at like 77%. And LeBron was right there at 6.6 on like 76%. So like he just over the years has continued to evolve his game and add things so that as his athleticism is waned, he's just as versatile and impactful as he's ever been. I had him as the fourth best player in the league still, and I expect big things from him this year, provided that his body holds up,

which is obviously a big question mark. I think he makes a case for most versatile player. I mean, certainly offensively, like who else just shifts their desire from, okay, I want to be, you know, the leading playmaker in the league to leading score in the league, and I want to attack from all these different places on the floor, dominating out of the post more one year,

leaning more on the jump shot another. Like, I don't think anybody else has had the level of ability to just pick how they want to kill you like that. I don't think anybody else in the league has that. Yonis doesn't have that. I mean, you know, he has his go-toes where he's overwhelmingly dominant, but he does not have the offensive versatility, certainly of LeBron, which is just a marvel about a dude entering year 20.

So unprecedented. Yep, I agree. All right, guys, that is all we have for today. As always, we sincerely appreciate your support. We'll have one more video coming out on Friday, and then we will be back after the weekend on Monday. Thanks, as always. I'll see you guys next time.

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