The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight x Nerd Sesh - Do Miami Heat have a chance vs. Jokic & Denver Nuggets in NBA Finals?

Episode Date: June 1, 2023

Jason Timpf is joined by The Volume's Carson Breber and Logan Camden of 'Nerd Sesh' to break down four pressing questions ahead of the NBA Finals featuring Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets squaring off with Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Will Miami slow down Nikola Jokic? What is the Heat's biggest advantage? Who has more to gain from winning a title: Jokic or Butler? And what are the guys' predictions for the series? #volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Freedom Unlimited. How do you cash back? We're going to prime for game one, but bringing on the guys from Nerdcess. Logan and Carson, going to come on. I have a lot of interesting stuff that I dug up during my NBA Finals preview. you on Tuesday morning. And so we've got four questions from this series that we're going to dive into. I'm going to start with the biggest problem. Is there any chance that Miami can slow down Nicola Yokic. And before I tee this one up, we'll start with Logan. Before I tee this one up for you, I have a crazy stat. So in my film study, per synergy, the Denver Nuggets posted up the Miami Heat, 30 times in their two games this season

and scored an astonishing 47 points on those 30 post-ups, which is over a point and a half per possession. It wasn't just Yokic. There's a lot of Aaron Gordon beaten switches as well, a little bit of Jamal Murray. But the reality is, is it's a Yokic problem because even when I was watching them spam Aaron Gordon post-ups on Kyle Lowry, it was a lot of Nikoliyokic identifying the mismatch,

placing the off-ball players where he wanted them and making that post-entry pass from the left wing. So my question, both of you guys, we'll start with Logan. Is there any chance that Miami can slow down the attack of the Denver Nuggets and Nicola Yokic? Yeah, you know, we answered this question on nerd session. I think if Eric Spolster or Jimmy Butler can find like a rabbit foot or a four-leaf clover maybe, or maybe they go and rub as many old lamps as they can and can get a genie to pop out with some wishes, I think they can get it done.

No, I don't think they really have a prayer at slowing down Yokic. Jason, you mentioned those crazy post-up numbers, too. Carson mentioned a crazy stat on our show. The Nuggets have also been one of the best teams against the zone point-blank per synergy too. I mean, I don't really know personnel-wise or schematically wise what the heat can do to slow down this attack, right? Because I think a lot of people are going to look at this matchup and they're going to go, oh, Bamatabio is one of the best defenders on planet Earth. You stick him one-on-one on Yokich.

maybe they can slow him down a little bit. It's just not that simple, man. I look at the two-man game with Yokic and Murray, and that's what really causes problems is all the switches that this Nuggets offense creates. They don't have the personnel to be really switchable. They don't have the personnel to stick another guy on Yokic and have BAM and kind of that Rover off ball roll the way the Lakers were. I think the Lakers were the best defensive matchup that we saw for Denver in all of these teams in the playoff field.

They had a lot of big physical guys like Hachimura, like Vando, like A. and that still didn't matter. The Lakers got swept. And I also agree with you guys. I think AD is the best defensive player on planet Earth. So yeah, I mean, short answer. I think it would take something spiritual. I think it would take cosmic entity guys.

I think it will take something. I think it'll take a lot of preying for the Miami Heat to slow down this offense. I don't really think that they can do anything schematically to slow them down. I just kind of think they're outmatched. I know that's the boring answer, but I think the Nuggets have the most talented offense in the NBA, the best offensive player, who's just an unsolvable puzzle. Whatever you throw at Yokic, he has an answer for you.

You can't throw him doubles, he will find an open shooter. You can't put one guy on him because he's going to bully that matchup. So, no, I think it's going to take a lot of luck and maybe some lucky objects too for the heat, man. I don't really think they have an answer for the offense or Yokic. You need to spolster to run out on the floor as a sixth defender is what you need. It wouldn't hurt, but I also don't think that there's really an answer in this series because I think that Nikoliyokic is effectively unstoppable offensively. And this run, he's 30, 13, and 10 on 62% true shooting.

I believe in the midst of one of the handful of highest offensive peaks we've ever seen because he is arguably the best playmaker and score alive right now and has such a tremendous versatility to the number of ways in which he can kill you. And I just think you're running. down the heat options one by one. Like Logan mentioned, you try Bam on Yokic and single coverage. I just think that's a mismatch. Bam is an awesome defender, one of the five best on the planet, in my opinion.

But his primary defensive value is as a team defender. His immense switchability, his IQ, his value as a helper and rim protector. One-on-one defense, you're looking at a 6-9 guy with a 7-1 wingspan. He is simply not big enough to affect Yokic in a meaningful way. And by the way, nobody really has been. I mean, we've seen him go up against massive elite defensive players with tremendous length. Rudy Gobert in single coverage, Anthony Davis in single coverage. And he cooked both those guys so thoroughly that the best option for those teams became,

okay, let's put another big, strong body on him so then we can have our best defenders and help. But I also think as Logan laid out, Miami is not particularly well equipped to try that strategy with Bam as the roamer. the guy who you probably have to look to there as the primary Yokic post defender would be Kevin Love, who yeah, as a big body, but not a very good defender and bottom line still 6-8, like Yokic is just going to give him work a whole lot of it. And he's averaged 1.2 points per post up in this playoff run. That number holds true if he's the one shooting or if he's the one passing. Nobody can guard him in single coverage.

He is too powerful. He is too unstoppable as a skill. shotmaker with his turnarounds and with his hooks and his touch finishing. And the playmaking is obviously unreal. We saw in that LA series, the regularity with which if somebody just dug in that little bit, he was finding the open shooter and creating consistently elite offense for his teammates. And then the weapon for Miami this entire playoff run has been the zone. We saw it give Boston fits in multiple games. We saw it give New York fits. I do not think it works against Denver. As Logan mentioned, the Nuggets were a 93rd percentile offense against zone this year,

almost 1.2 points per possession, just ridiculous. And Yokic is so dominant, facilitating from the middle of the floor. And Denver is so good at moving to open space. They have so many good cutters and they have so many lethal shooters who have demonstrated a level of consistency there that really nobody in the league can match. You're just not going to rattle them. You're just not going to throw them out of their rhythm in the same way that you're able to do to Boston where maybe they're not getting consistent penetration into the middle of that zone or they're settling for these sort of one pass catch and shoot looks that aren't great or you're able to force their primary ball handlers into turnovers or they just don't have that same level of offball movement.

That doesn't happen with this Nuggets offense. They are incredibly disciplined. They have the best playmaker on the planet and they have an awesome supporting cast. And I just think it's going to be the same dilemma that everybody else has faced. you try to cover Yokin single coverage, you die, you try any combination of doubles, you die, because the supporting cast is too good as well. And it's so funny to me how some people just continue to not understand this. It's like Logan said, I thought that L.A. had the best combination of personnel to guard Yokich.

And by the way, Minnesota had a pretty good defensive front court too for that matchup. And against L.A., Yokich went out and put up 28, 15, and 12 efficiently. We had some guy in our comments section yesterday say that it's simple. All you got to do is front him with Bam and then you double with one of the guards and Yokic can't handle that. It's like, oh yeah, you're just going to fluster him off the catch. It's not like against these zone looks. Literally the second he touches the ball, he has it out to a shooter. He's just a different breed.

He's the best player alive. And I think that's why you're looking at such a mismatch here because nobody can take away what he and this Denver offense does. I'm glad you mentioned the supporting cast because it's an important part of this. Like, here's the thing. I do believe Yokic is the best offensive player in the league, but I don't think it's by some massive margin. Like there are four, they're generally speaking throughout the NBA history.

There's three, four, five guys at any given moment that are the ultimate conundrum, which is you can't guard them on an island and you can't guard them with double teams because they can pass out of it. Like, LeBron's been like that. Steph's been like that over the years. That's not necessarily unprecedented. What makes it unstoppable is the ultimate supporting cast, Aaron Gordon being the perfect deep seal vertical threat, offensive rebounding threat, who can also beat post mismatches with KCP and Michael Porter Jr., not just as good

spot-up shooters, but utterly deadly spot-up shooters. Like if you literally flipped Michael Porter Jr. for Grant Williams, the whole thing crumbles. Because once those spot-up shooting numbers go from, I literally cannot afford to leave this guy open to, yeah, I can kind of live with it. It trickles down. And that'll be the really interesting phase of Nicola Yokic's career is as it kind of fades to the point where because of the CBA they have to pinch some pennies on some of the role players. That's where it'll get a little bit more complicated. That's why I consider this Denver team. I was talking about this with our colleague live yesterday. But I view this Denver Nuggets team as an echelon above even other recent

NBA champions in terms of the fact that like I really do think they are exceptionally dominant and what they're doing now is really impressive. Think of it like this. Like they actually kicked the shit out of the suns more than they kicked the shit out of the Lakers, just didn't show up in the series score. Three of the four wins were like nasty blowouts, right? And it took these other worldly shooting performances from Devin Booker to eke out a couple of wins. But like the Lakers actually played them super close in all four games.

Three of them required clutch situations. One of them required a Nicola Yokicch late game winner. One of them had LeBron miss a late three that could have tied it. And the one that didn't involve a clutch situation was literally a game. the Lakers had a double digit second half lead. And so they've dominated the competition with the Kevin Durant, Devin Booker team with the LeBron James Anthony Davis team. I think they are all time great.

I think they've defended a hell of a lot better than any of us could have expected. So I'm glad that like I think this is, this has been a referendum on how good Yokic is, but it's also been a referendum on how good this roster is. Jamal Murray very well could be a top 15 player when we do our player rankings this summer. So I wanted to shout those guys out. What makes this problem unique to me, if you look at the spolstra situation,

so he has effectively out chess matched three teams in a row that were more talented than it. That's just a fact. I don't think anybody's disagreeing with us there. So why is it that spolster doesn't win the title every year then if his coaching advantage is that big, especially since there have been more talented Miami Heat rosters, hell, even last year, I would argue, they were more talented. They had a healthy Tyler Harrow.

They had PJ Tucker. They had more size and athleticism. It's a totally different team. So why is it working this year? That's what makes this particular matchup interesting to me. Every single one of the three teams that Miami beat on their way to the NBA finals didn't just have weaknesses, weaknesses had glaring weaknesses in their half-court offense. For Milwaukee, it was Janice's inability to make free throws and to make shots over the top of the defense

and the inconsistency of Drew Holliday and Chris Middleton, who was coming off of an injury. In the second round, it was Julius Randall crumbling into oblivion in the spot of up shooters all going cold, which left Jalen Brunson is their only solid half court option. So they were really limited in the half court offensively. And for the Boston Celtics, it was two primary shot creators that are not playing at a superstar level and is surrounded by shooting that was not elite, guys that can all can make shots, but guys that weren't knocked down shooters so they could go cold for extended stretches. So what that provided Eric Spolstra was opportunities for coaching to play a massive role in the

series because he effectively able was able to capitalize on those weaknesses in all three rounds and route to an NBA champion or into a birth in the NBA finals. In this particular series, there is no role in my opinion that coaching can play to disrupt this Nuggets offense. In fact, if Miami wins, I think there will be a very clear reason why it'll just be uncharacteristic cold shooting from every nugget. Like Michael Porter will just go cold, KCP will just go cold because they let's let's call it what it is. They shot the lights out against the Lakers, which is, which that's what they're capable of. But I find it extremely unlikely that any sort of schematic approach is going to disrupt what the nuggets can do,

um, offensively. You talked about the zone like, and for the people who don't understand it's, it's really basic. You have to get the ball to the middle of the zone. Why does that matter? It's a simple math problem. In a two three zone, there are three bodies on the back line. You have two wings offensive. that will slide down to the corner when the ball gets to the middle. When you get the ball to the

middle, the big man has to step up. When the big man gets to has to step up, you create a math problem underneath the basket. It leaves open shooters automatically. You just have to have somebody who is capable of scoring there, which brings the big guy up and he can make the reads quick enough. I know you talked about how quick he got the reads out. I saw a highlight in one of the games where they threw it to Yokic at the high post. He literally caught it up here and just flung it like this, like in one fluid motion to it. a shooter on the wing. It's like these guys are the combination of offball shooting, the two-man game of Jamal Murray and Nicola Yokic and Aaron Gordon being the perfect non-shooter to fill that

role has made them completely and utterly unguarded, which takes us to our second question. Obviously, the Denver offense has a gigantic advantage. What is Miami's biggest advantage? Like if Miami wins this series and we're telling the story about it in a post series like moratorium, what is Miami's biggest advantage, Carson? Well, first of all, I think that you're right to say that this is the rare series in which they're not going to be able to convincingly win the coaching battle in a way that matters. Because it's like you said, Denver just doesn't have things that you can exploit offensively. They don't turn the ball over. They have the lowest turnover rate.

They have this incredibly consistent shooting supporting cast. They have this great cerebral decision maker leading it all. And so they're different from every other team that Miami has been able to exploit up to this point. Also, you look at a team like Boston, right? You have a lot of the mental lapses on both sides of ball, sometimes just their effort not being there. Denver has been as consistently engaged as any team in this playoff field along with only Miami. So you're not going to be able to have that same leg up. I think you have to look at two potential categories, one of which could be the shooting ceiling.

Do I think that Miami is a better shooting team than Denver? I do not, because it's like you said, MPJ to me is one of the five most gifted pure shooters of the basketball this century. The guy is 610. He can shoot from any angle with any level of contest, off any degree of movement. I saw a stat today. I think his effective field goal percentage on wide open catch and shoot jumpers in these playoffs is at around 90%. Like it's unfathomable. And he is one of the most efficient three-point shooters in league

when almost everything he takes is contested. KCP was leading the league in three-point percentage for a lot of this year. Jamal is lethal as they pull up and catch and shooter up around 40%. Right. So Denver is an elite shooting team. But when we've seen Miami pull these big time upsets, not like New York where they were able to get away with off shooting, because I think they were just better at the end of the day.

They shot 45% from deep in their wins against the bucks. they shot 48% from deep in their wins against the Celtics. Do I consider that sustainable or something you should expect? Not necessarily, but we have seen when all these guys are humming, they have a lot of lethal shooters on the floor at the same time. They're able to create those guys' looks out of handoffs, facing drop out of pick and roll, lots of great catch and shooters. So they could get very, very hot there, and that has been key to their success so far.

But the other thing that I think is less a matter of variance and is more of a legitimate advantage, is their real depth. Like, we can look at the top five for Denver, the top six, and say, that's pretty clearly better. They have the best player in the series and they have a great supporting cast. But where Miami has been unrivaled in this playoff field, I think, is the ability to have their seventh or eighth guys swing outcomes legitimately, or the variety of combinations that they're able to go with, right?

Denver doesn't necessarily have a Duncan Robinson who can come in playing 18 minutes a night, but give you 18 and kill you with his catch and shooting and his cutting and his pick and roll, playmaking at times in this last series. Even the ability to go with a Kevin Love in certain matchups and have his shooting and rebounding impact things. Kyle Lowry capable at times of having these big time pull-up jump shooting performances. Even a guy like Haywood Highsmith coming in with his defense and his shooting having an impact. Denver after the top six, which is stellar, Christian Brown is fine. I don't love Jeff Green, and that's kind of it.

We haven't seen them turn to anybody else save like a few Reggie Jackson minutes last series. So that's not normally something that's going to swing a series, but it is an advantage that Miami has and potentially those non-yokic minutes could get a bit ugly, especially when there's a shift with no Yokic or Murray, like we saw there was one. one point in that LA series where it's just an instant 70 run when you send those two guys to the bench. They just lack offensive direction. But I think that deep bench for Miami is legitimately good and has proven to be in a way that Denver hasn't necessarily. Yeah,

that's where I'd look for where Miami has the advantage. If you frame it like that, if Miami wins this series, it's going to be because of shooting. It's going to be because of depth. And I think it's specifically that pull up jump shooting. This as a team, they are scoring 25 points per game on a 38% clip on pull-up jumpers in these playoffs. And I want to make it clear, too, guys. I don't think that the Miami heater better pull-up jump shooting team than Denver, because like you guys said, I mean, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. Even Yokich, man. Like, I just think there's a different skill level, but all of these guys can do it capably enough and or deep enough to where, yeah, one guy can go cold and you can afford to have that off night because

you've got a lot of guys down in this rotation who can get hot at the drop of a hat. I mean, guys, Caleb Martin. This is a remarkable stat to me. Derek White was number one, the most efficient jump shooter in these playoffs before Boston got bounced. Caleb Martin is at 1.36 points per jump shot in these playoffs. That's the second highest mark out of anybody. And all these guys can shoot Martin Robinson Lowry. They're over 40% on pull-up jumpers. Jimmy's at 39% and Gabe Vincent's at 34%. I mean, Vincent's a better shooter than that, I think, but can just get hot.

And so I think if you're running pick and roll with the top of the key, if the nuggets are running drop with Nicola Yokic, you know, I mean, we've seen Yokich come up higher in his drops in certain series, but he can still have that tendency to go to the basket. If they give these guys a lane, Miami can kill them from there. Again, I think it's unlikely, but that's the one area that I would give Miami maybe a slight advantage just because of the sheer volume and the depth that they have of guys that can kill you on that pull-up jump shooting. But if I'm being honest, guys, I really think that's the only advantage that Miami possesses.

I mean, I look at any of these other categories that Miami has won throughout, the rebounding, the hustle plays. Like, again, I think Denver has all of these physical advantages as well, where all of these guys are bigger, they're more athletic. And then again, I think it would take, like Carson said, like you said, Jason, a real lack of focus that we have just not seen from Denver throughout the regular season and throughout these playoffs for Miami to pull this off. So I think it's a, it would be a perfect storm. But the one area I would point to is that pull up jump shooting and the sheer depth that Miami has. Miami will have good offensive stretches in this series in my opinion. That's one of the things we learned from the Lakers series is like they do a much

better job at the point of attack than you would expect. Yokic actually does his job in the defense better than you would expect, which is him coming up high out of that drop and kind of, it's almost like a catch hedge where he's like kind of catching that driver. But there's no doubt that they offer less rim resistance than most teams. And so there will be, you know, pocket passes to bam where it seems like he finishes easily over the top of Aaron Gordon kind of roll into the rim or where Jimmy kind of uses a head faker, a counter move to kind of get past Yokic and then just kind of glides to the rim for an easy lane. There's going to be some moments like that. I also think with the way that Denver's pick and roll coverages work, some of these skip passes

to the weak side to shooters will work. Carson did a good job breaking down just like the sheer amount of shooting that Miami has. Miami does a really good job of keeping threats off the ball so that like when you make those defensive commitments to certain spots on the floor, they can consistently make you pay. I look at two specific areas offensively. Those skip passes to the shooters. And then a lot of the stuff that LeBron James was doing matchup hunting, I think we'll see a lot of that from Jimmy Butler in this series.

So if you guys notice, like one of the ways that the Lakers confronted that coverage from Denver was just running these ghost screens with Austin Reeves. to try to get Jamal Murray onto LeBron or to get him to linger on LeBron too much where Austin Reeves was able to get a shot. And one of the ways they countered that was they started tucking Jamal Murray away on Dennis Schroeder and DeAngelo Russell, who DeAngel Russell just completely crumbled in the series mentally and couldn't make a shot. And Dennis Schroeder is too slow of a release and can't shoot off the move.

So it kind of mitigated that problem. All of these shooters that are going to be on the floor for Miami, whether that's Max Struce or Gabe Vincent or Duncan Robinson or Caleb Martin. They're all going to be players that can shoot on the move. And so that will put Denver in a little bit of a predicament where they're going to have no choice but to put Jamal Murray on a on a guy who's capable of making them pay and pick and pop situations. So I do think we'll see a lot of Jimmy Butler matchup attacking. He had seven postups and ISOs in the two games the season scored nine points on him. Ironically, the ones that he didn't succeed super well on, I thought,

were the Yokic possessions where he tried to ISO Yokic. Yokic does a pretty good job of anticipating his moves and baiting him into long contested jump shots. But he had a lot of success attacking Michael Porter Jr. He attacked Jamal Murray as well for those classic little short jump shots that he's been hitting this entire playoff run. So they're going to have offensive moments. Their biggest advantage is Jimmy Butler is basically just another version of LeBron,

which by the way, I thought LeBron outplayed Anthony Davis in the last round. I thought it was the one round in this playoff run where LeBron outplayed AD. I thought AD outplayed him in the previous two rounds. So that specific type of player, that big playmaking forward is the specific type of player that can give the Nuggets some problems. But it's just like juxtaposed with what the Nuggets do. It's like they're just going to get 120 points. So where are you getting your 120 points?

Like where? You know, that's what I said in my show, like they're going to need some sort of other world, the offensive contribution. I watched all of Bay, Bay, Abios, postups and ISOs against Yokic. He had a couple quick moves in there that looked okay, but it's a lot of him settling for those tough fadeaway jump shots in the lane that he's just not making right now. And he seems to have completely lost his confidence

after what happened in that Boston series after he smoked that hook shot right at the rim there in the second half of game seven. So yeah, it's just I just don't see a universe where that advantage is enough. And Carson, you mentioned this. And I think this has been the most important thing about Denver. They have been the team that doesn't seem susceptible to the ebbs and flows of desperation.

Like I've seen them face desperate teams and consistently play to the same level from an effort standpoint. They would have swept Phoenix if it wasn't for Devin Booker undergoing an like literally an out-of-body experience as a pull-up shooter. So I think a sweep is on the table.

I can't pick a sweep because I've been so wrong about Miami in this playoff front that I refuse to make that mistake again. But like I let's just put it this way. I have a flight to Bozeman, Montana for a relaxation. trip away from the Arizona heat after game six, and I thoroughly expect to be able to make that flight

without having to work a game seven. That's where I'm at right now. So from there, let's move on. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.

Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw,

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It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford

and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on The Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English.

Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Obviously, we have two players in this series that are kind of regarded as upper echelon players but are missing the ultimate achievement,

is the NBA finals. And I said this on my show, but like to me, the finals are so sacred. And every year when we get to this time and I see the finals moniker and the logo and I see the commercials and I see the ABC intro video and all those different things, I'm always reminded why this matters so much to me and why I don't give, you know, I don't give the place in the hierarchy of the league to guys that haven't won a title yet because I think this is the ultimate. for a basketball player and as good as Yokic is, I think it's fair that I'm like, hey, let me see you do it at this stage first, you know, before we kind of give you that credit. But no matter what, two weeks from now, we're going to be looking back. And one of these guys, Yokic or Jimmy Butler,

is going to be stamped as an NBA champion in a finals MVP. So my question for you guys, who has the most to gain from an NBA finals win? Let's start with Logan. I think both of these guys have a lot to gain from an NBA finals win. Like you said, I think a lot of people are going to wake up if Yokic gets this ring done to the fact that he is the best player on planet Earth. And I understand. I get it. You know, you don't want to crown the guy before he gets a championship. I think Yokic has been in this conversation for a while, but this will finally give him some credence and some real weight to an already really loaded resume. I mean, this will propel him, I think, to one of the greatest centers of all time. I think Jimmy probably, if we're

looking at this one-to-one, I don't know how you can't say Jimmy, though. I mean, just looking what he's had to have gone through, through these playoffs circumstance-wise. You look at not having Tyler Hero. I mean, a complete lack of offensive creation reliably outside of Hero. Like, yeah, man, I love the depth here. I love all the guys, D. Rob, Lowry, Martin. They have played their asses off to this point, including Gabe Vincent. But it's like it's not a finals caliber roster to wear of normal caliber.

They slid, the number one seed and who I thought was the best player on the planet coming into this, coming into these playoffs. I mean, you know, Janus missed a couple games, but they take down the one-seated bucks. And then if Jimmy did it, again, I think a lot of this rides on if Jimmy did this in this series, I mean, you're slaying two of the biggest dragons in basketball and Janice Antetacumpo and Nicola Yokic, add on top of that that you already slayed the Boston Celtics, who I just think are unequivocally a more talented team. This would be the most shocking finals win of all times. This would be the most shocking run to the finals of all time. Like, If Jimmy got it done, I think this would just mean more than Yokic's ring.

Like I don't understand what it means for Yokic because I think it propels him to being one of the greatest centers of all time. And people like an undeniable level, finally a level where everyone has to wake up and realize that he's one of the greatest centers ever. But this is one of the most improbable and difficult pass to the title of all time. So if Jimmy got it done, I think it would mean more. He finally gets that finals MVP. And we talked about this on our show. Carson gave down a list of guys who have similar resumes to Jimmy, being the number one on two teams that went to the finals,

being a number one on three teams that went to the Eastern, or went to the conference finals, excuse me. It's already a short list. Getting that ring would really validate Jimmy and how tough of a path it's been. So I think it means slightly more for Jimmy, but I always love when we have a matchup where finally somebody knew is getting crowned.

So it means a lot for both of these guys. but if Jimmy were to get it done, I mean, an eight seed winning a finals on this improbable of a run, I think would probably mean a little more. It's interesting when you say that it would be the most surprising title ever because I'm reflecting on it. This is sort of an area of expertise of mine I like to think. And you're probably right, because when you think about the lower seeds to win it all, you have the 95 Rockets as the six seed, right? But they were the defending champ.

They'd add Clyde Drexler. can't put it in this tier. You have, for example, the 69 Celtics, Russell's last year. They were just a 48 win team, but they had already won 10. So I think you can give them the benefit of the doubt. Any 70s champ, there's a lot of ones in there who are hovering around 50 wins, but that's because it was the greatest era of parity. And then this century, people will say the 2011 Mavs.

And sure, there was obviously a very difficult path there going through the thunder and the Lakers and the heat. That was a 57 win team with a top 20 player of all time. You have the 06 Heat who were, they were like a 52 win team. They had to beat the 64 win Pistons. Superhuman D-Way. That was surprising. But this is an eight-seat that has been down for their third most talented player,

these playoffs, and does not have that kind of all-time talent at the top. So I think it's Jimmy too, because Jimmy's 33 years old. And this is a chance for him. to climb into the top 50 all time. And I think he's already knocking on that door. I've gone through this on nerds session, but since the ABA NBA-N-B-A merger, he's now one of just 25 guys to be the clear best player on three conference finalists and one of just 20 guys to be the clear best player on two NBA finalists. And he's one of nine guys to average 27, six, and four on 57% true shooting in multiple playoff runs with a minimum of 10 games, joining LeBron, Katie, MJ,

Kareem, Yokic, Steph, and Larry Bird. So Jimmy's playoff resume, largely based on these last four years, but has to put him in those conversations because of the consistency with which the best attributes of his game have translated, his physical imposition, his ability to get into the lane into those short mid-range shots and kill you there, attack and his match is playmaking, his defensive dominance. All of that has made him a great playoff performer in this latter stretch of his career. but if you were going to ask me, well, who's more likely to get back?

I think it has to be the nuggets with the infrastructure that they have, the level of talent they have, their core being younger. And who is it more likely that this is like so far in a way the defining thing of their career if they win? It's Jimmy. Yokic already has the two MVPs. He's going to have plenty more cracks at it. Jimmy, 2020 NBA finals again put himself in special territory. He's one of five guys ever to average.

26.8 assists a game in the finals with Magic Steph, MJ. And who's the last one? Well, I forget right now. But anyways, Jimmy continues to put himself in these special categories in the playoffs. This would be a different level. So I think it's Jimmy. But I think Yokic dements himself as a top 20 player of all time if they win the title too. You know, this is a complicated question because I think Yokic has an interesting

dynamic in terms of what he has to lose in this playoff in this upcoming series. Like both of them have a lot to gain because Yokic is someone that goes from if he wins it, he's the consensus top player in the league and that obviously is a huge accomplishment. Jimmy Butler, even if he wins, is not going to be considered the best player in the league. To me, Jimmy is a really interesting player in NBA history because, like,

he never really has been on that grade of a team. And he's consistently playing in these late playoff rounds in these huge games in a massive talent disadvantage, you know? And so like in a weird way, like I actually, like Jimmy kind of is going to be regarded the way he's regarded, regardless of what happens, which is the dude who never was considered like that true foundational superstar because he never was consistently great enough in the regular season.

But when it comes to this level of NBA playoff basketball, he's on short lists like what Carson was saying. It is, there's no doubt, though, that Yokic has the most to lose. And I don't expect him to lose for the record. I mean, I picked him in six, but I could see a sweep potentially happening here. And I also have just no doubt at all whatsoever that he's going to play great. Like it's just, it's like the same. It's it reminds me of prime LeBron James.

where it's like he's just because he thrives so much as a playmaker and making shots close to the rim, which by the way is exactly why LeBron was so consistently great over the years, that's what makes him a consistently great playoff player. Like he is two foundational tenets of his game are not dependent on night-to-night shot result. And so he can bring a level of consistent positive impact. That said, obviously, if the heat somehow find a way to steal the series, it's not a good look. and it would probably require a disaster of a defensive performance from him. So he certainly has the most to lose.

But I mean, here's the thing. As far as I'm concerned with Jimmy Butler, he will always be regarded the way that he's regarded now, regardless of what happens because of the simple fact that, like, everyone knows he's that guy that like it doesn't matter who's on his team. It doesn't matter what his regular season record is. When you have to see him for seven games, it's going to be a royal pain in the ass.

And that's kind of like that would be the best way that I'd break it down to my children one day if they were like, hey, who the hell was Jimmy Butler? Why do we care about him when he fairly, when he didn't average what LeBron averaged or whatever? You know, that's what we're going to say. So, all right, I said Nuggets and six. Let's get picks from you guys. Let's start with, let's start with Carson. Who do you pick in this series and how many games?

I'm taking Nuggets in five. I think that having the best player alive and the best offense, the best offense has proven to be insurmountable for everybody they've faced so far. and I think it's the incredible offensive variety. We talk about it in every phase, great transition offense, dominant pick and roll offense, so good at creating,

looks for guys with handoffs with the level of shooting they have and the level of screening from Yokic. It just doesn't stop with them. I do think their size advantage matters. Aaron Gordon's going to have mismatches to attack. Again, they don't have the kind of bodies to throw at Yokic. NPJ is going to be getting a lot of relatively uncontested looks just by rising up a guy who he's five inches taller

then he's going to have to be on him. And again, Denver's not susceptible to the kind of lapses that everybody else Miami has played is. They have the highest floor in the NBA. Yokic, as a player, has the highest floor in the NBA for the exact reasons that you just laid out, Jason, and Denver's got home court, the most significant home court advantage in the league. They're 39 and 4 there when Yokic plays this year.

I just think they are better. And I think having the best offense in the league. and I think an all-time great offense is the driving factor there. They have an IR offensive rating right now over 119 than any champion in NBA history. And that number has been incredibly high in every matchup so far in these playoffs. They just keep getting it done. It was higher against the Lakers. It was 122 against the Lakers.

Like it's just ridiculous. So all due respect to the heat, I love Jimmy. They have proven me wrong over and over again in this playoff run. I have consistently underestimated their ability to dominate so convincingly in coaching and execution and Jimmy being the best player on the floor that they have pulled off these upsets. I do think that that ends here, though. Yeah, I also wanted to pick the Nuggets sweep, but no Tengo Los Gohones to call that one. I just, Jimmy's proven me wrong a few too many times for me to convincingly say that he's not going to get a game. But I think you're exactly right.

Guys, you talk about the historic offense. The Nuggets have an offensive rating of nearly 120 per 100 possessions. It's the highest offensive rating through the conference finals before an NBA final since the 2017 Cavs. I mean, they are a special, special offense led by Yolkits and Murray. Like, I just think for the heat to win this, it would take an uncharacteristically bad series from Denver in every facet of the game. And all of the categories that Miami has won up to this, the hustle plays, the outlier shooting. and I don't even know if we can say it's really an outlier. They're a 39% team from deep,

but I think it would take a superhuman effort from Jimmy. I would think it takes this team shooting over 40% from deep on the whole, not taking game off winning all the hustle plays, protecting the rock every game. Like I just think it would take the heat playing at a all-time high, and I think it would take the nuggets just lapsing in areas that they haven't lapsed this entire season. So yeah, what's the new story, guys?

I think the Miami Heat are a little overwhelmed in this matchup. Maybe I'll be wrong again. But I again think the Miami Heat are drastically out talented, overwhelmed, and I don't think they can schematically scheme up anything to give them an advantage. So yeah, I'm going Denver and five. And if Jimmy hadn't been doing this, I'd probably take on the full logic side, Denver to sweep. Yeah, it's interesting. Logan, the way you broke it down is perfect. All of the specific ways that Miami's been winning are things that specifically will not work against Denver. And that's what makes me worry about a sweep.

And again, like, you just know Miami's going to find a way to compete in some of these games, but it's just I could see it any sooner than later as well. All right, guys, so here's the deal. My guess is we might see you guys at some point over the course of the series. If it gets interesting, if it's a sweep, maybe not. But I think the day after I get back from Monday, Montana is the draft. I would imagine that at the very least,

I'll see you guys for some draft content on the day of. Always fun chopping it up and talking basketball with you boys. I appreciate it as always. To the listeners, as always, we appreciate you guys. We will be back tomorrow night after the final buzzer of game one of the NBA finals to break it all down. I'm sure the nerdsetsch guys will as well.

We appreciate you guys and we'll see you tomorrow. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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