The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight x Nerd Sesh - Lakers & Warriors playoff push, pressure on Tatum, Harden & Clippers title chances

Episode Date: February 3, 2024

Jason Timpf is joined by Carson Breber and Logan Camden from 'Nerd Sesh.' They discuss the Lakers & Warriors' chances of making a deep run in the NBA Playoffs, how much pressure is on Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics to win a title this season, whether Damian Lillard or James Harden is a better playoff performer, and much more! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Happy Friday, everybody. Hope all of you guys had an incredible week. Well, as promised, every other Friday, we have the guys from NerdSash coming on the show today. I wanted to do kind of a similar type of idea to what we did last week in terms of kind of bouncing around the league and hitting a bunch of topics. But instead of doing teams today, we're going to do players. And so I've got another game for us to do where I've got five questions about NBA players that are firmly split between two players and we'll have to pick between one or the other. All right.

So without any further ado, we're going to start with you, Carson. who is most likely to go on a deep playoff run this year, LeBron James or Steph Curry? Well, I want to start by saying that I think it's unlikely when you're talking about deep, like a final sort of run for either of these teams and probably Western Conference finals too. But I still clearly think that it's LeBron. And the reality is just that he would have to do less superhero stuff for the Lakers to make, say, Western Conference Finals run than Steph would. And the obvious reason there is that he has another superstar caliber player on his team and

Anthony Davis, who could be their best player for a series. There's nobody on the Warriors who could possibly carry that sort of load. He also has the backbone that is AD specifically defensively and the fact that the Lakers can reach a defensive ceiling where they're dominant. And that was the driving factor of their success in last year's run. So I think that LeBron can get to a special level, but he'll be able to pick his spots more, even in a playoff run where it doesn't have to be every single night, I'm doing what Steph did in game seven versus the Kings, because that's kind of what it

feels like this Warriors team would need to make some noise. And I do think the elite size in the front court makes the Lakers match up much better against some of those other super big physical teams in the West, the Nuggets, the Timberwolves. The Warriors are just going to be outmatched physically in those matchups. The lack of a second dynamic shock creator. It's just, too costly for them. So I have felt all year that it's L.A. I still feel, even as both these teams have struggled, that it's definitely L.A. Those are the two biggest points for me with the Lakers, too. He has Anthony Davis to rely on, and they're just physical as hell and their athletic is hell. They're big as hell. And the Warriors, sadly, like as much as I like the conglomerate

of assets that they have, the bench pieces that have stepped up, you know, shout out B-Pod, shout out Kaminga for going crazy. Shout out TJD. Like, I like a lot of the Warriors' pieces, but they don't have a dominant number two. They are at physical disadvantages. And Anthony Davis is the best player this season out of the two guys. Like, Seth just doesn't have that luxury. So I also think it's the Lakers. And I think they're more for looking at this from a trade deadline perspective.

I know we bring this up every time we talk about L.A., I think considering that they are the Los Angeles Lakers, they don't have a core like the Warriors do, they are more likely to make a game-changing move at the deadline as well. Yeah, I think if we go back a month, month, it's a chasm between the two. I think like there, it was just so much more clear that the Lakers were more primed for that type of, of playoff round, but some things have changed. For instance, Andrew Wiggins is starting to play a little bit better. Jonathan Camingo over the course of the last

like three weeks is basically on, he went from not having a single consecutive stretch of 20 point games in his career to what's he on like seven or eight of them in a row now. So like you have the rise of Jonathan Kaminga, even on the other end of things for the Lakers, like we went from, you know, like Jared Vanderbilt is vitally important to this team. And we got an announcement today that he's going to be out for at least a few more weeks and that that season ending surgery is on the table for Jared Vanderbilt, which wouldn't be a death sentence for the Lakers, but would significantly cut into their margin for error. So it is closer. But that said, it's still the Lakers. it's a lot of specific reasons.

They have more star power. Like you said, there's more secondary shot creation support for LeBron James. And even extending into the typical stuff that we know matters the most when we get to the NBA playoffs. So for instance, the Lakers have the size to match up with a lot of teams that other teams do not. The Lakers have more superstar talent than the Warriors have.

The Lakers have even just among the guys in their rotation that are younger, they're younger players with players. experience now. Rui Hachamura was there for the deep playoff run. Austin Reeves was there for the deep playoff run. A lot of these guys like Pazamski and Trace Jackson Davis, they're like Kaminga barely played in last year's playoff runs. So like I think they're just more primed, even if we do acknowledge that that trend is flipping. And I want to be clear that trend is flipping because I actually see the, the Warriors going on a Lakers-esque second half run for a bunch of specific reasons. One, they have the fifth easiest remaining schedule in the NBA.

which especially if you factor in the Western Conference where just I was digging into the numbers the other day. The West is just so much deeper with talent from the top to the bottom. I was even, I can't remember the exact numbers, but I pulled up like the head-to-head records and the Western Conference teams have like, I have like a 30 wins in the positive over 500 over Eastern Conference teams had to head this year.

Like the West is just deeper and the Warriors have had a hellacious schedule to start the year with Draymond playing in only 20 of the games. And so I think there's a lot of potential for the Warriors to go on that type of run. But again, when you get down to like the playoff groupings and it's like it's probably going to be Steph Clay, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kaminga and Draymond Green. It's just with some of the decline we've seen from Clay Thompson with Jonathan Kaminga being so young. It's just hard to pick them in a series the way that you can kind of see the Lakers kind of getting to that point. I want to be clear though. like both of these teams, they're both kind of poised to head into that play in tournament range.

And our top two teams in the Western Conference are the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves, two teams that are extremely good. And I'm not trying to sit here and undercut the good that they bring to the table, but between some of the limitations that we've talked about with the Timberwolves and some of their late game execution, their clutch offense has been garbage in the last like month or so. And then you look at the thunder and some of the limitations they have as being a young and small team. It's kind of crazy because I agree with you, Carson. Both of these teams are seemingly in worse position than they were last year. Yeah, it's like you get into that 7-8 slot and you have a chance. It's like, man, I don't think it's off the table. So before we move on, I want to

give you guys one more follow-up. Do you think it's more likely than not that either team pulls off a first round upset or more likely than not that they both lose in the first round or miss the playoffs entirely? I think it is more like. than not, if we're viewing them as a collective, probably that they lose in the first round or miss entirely just because I'm struggling to see it with the Warriors right now. And there is a lot still that I like. And I know that their record is poor, but by net rating, like they've been a better team than the Lakers, they've had some of the worst late game execution and also luck.

They've lost so many close games this year. They have dealt with Draymond's absence for an extended period. And they have been looking different as of late. because of the dynamic changer that is Jonathan Kaminga. But I still see some irreversible issues with them. And when I look at a team like the Thunder, they're more athletic, they have more dynamic shock creators, they're defending at a higher level.

Yeah, they're less experienced. But I just think Steph would have to go supernova. And when SGA is opposite you and he has the best supporting cast, that's just a tough formula. I still think the Lakers have the upside to beat a whole lot of teams out West, not the Nuggets. I think the Clippers would be a strong favorite. but outside of that, LeBron and AD,

and they have much more secondary shock creation, as you mentioned, from the perimeter, Jason, if you're picking out the two dudes outside of that star tier, who it's like, hey, run me a pick and roll, float my offense for six minutes. You want Austin Reeves and you want DeAngelo Russell more than you want anybody on that Warriors roster after Steph.

So unfortunately, I just think the path is too long for the Warriors right now. Call me crazy. I don't know. If we get those hypothetical matchups, I think I might take L.A. and Golden State to win to upset them both. I don't know, do the experience factor really matters to me there? And you say that it is a tall task to ask stuff to do that.

But I mean, has Steph given us any reason to doubt him? Like, I don't know, man. I think in that hypothetical matchup, I would pick the Lakers and the Warriors to both upset those young teams, man. I'm going to ride with the old guard. The tough one would be the Warriors. The, like, I think they would need to catch OKC in particular. to get that first round upset, but I think that's on the table. Specifically, just because I really do think Golden State would have just a huge experience advantage there.

Draymond Green, too, you could just see him getting all into the gamesmanship in the early phase of the series to like snatch Jet Homegrint of his confidence and to do some things along those lines. I would lean slightly more towards it's more likely than not that we get one of those teams to upset somebody in the first round. All right, moving on to our next question. Who has more pressure on them in this playoff run? Janice and Tenacompo or Jason Tatum. We'll start with you, Logan. I would argue that Jason Tatum maybe has more pressure on his shoulders than any other player in all of basketball this season

coming into the playoffs, considering his shortcomings in the playoff stage that we've seen in late game scenarios where he has a lack of shot dynamism, where he has struggled when there's a lot of ball pressure applied to him, where he's crumbled in these big moments, to put it, you know, to put it simply. And you couple that with the fact that Boston has really gone all in on this core. And they've invested more into, you know, this top five of this lineup. They've got Chris Horsengis.

They've got Drew Holiday. They've got Derek White. They've got Jalen Brown. Like at this point, if the Celtics don't get it done this year, it's a major disappointment. And all of that blame is going to fall in the shoulders of Jason Tatum, considering the fact that Yonis has already climbed the mountain. You know, I mean, Yonis can have as many. Yon is going to have his many late game gaffes and poor, you know, executions in the clutch. He got it done.

That's all that really matters. He had a 50 piece on the biggest stage. We saw Tatum in the finals and sure he had a couple of good games, but they crumbled against the Warriors. They had that series in the back. That's his legacy until he changes it, right? They crumbled in game seven against the Miami Heat. That's the Celtics reputation and that's Jason Tatum's reputation. Considering how stacked the roster is, I think Tatum has more to prove in these playoffs than anybody.

else in basketball. I think he's got the kind of the way to the world on his shoulders, man. He's Atlas right now. I agree. And I think that Logan makes a great point. Once you have climbed to the mountain once, and especially once you've done it in the fashion that Yonis did. And I'm not talking about the run in terms of competition because you have the nets down basically two of their three stars. They had James Harden barely walking around. And then the Hawks and a sun's team that was good, but maybe not totally championship ready. it's not about that murderer's row that he had to go through, but it's about the level that he played

individually. Like, Janus was unbelievable in that run and specifically in the finals. That puts you in a different tier in terms of, I think, the margin that you have. And last year was ugly, but he still has more margin. The expectations are different also because he has done that and Tatum hasn't. But Tatum is the guy who a lot of people, it seems, want to crown as like one of the kings of the league, right alongside Yolkij and Janus. I don't think that he's quite on that level as a player, and he does not have that sort of

playoff resume. And especially this year, he has everything, everything going in his favor. The Celtics have been overwhelmingly talented for the last couple years. This is a different level, though, man. We say this often on our show. They have five all-star caliber basketball players on the same team. This is not just the most talented starting five in the league. If you take away the number one guy, the Nuggets starting lineup is really good.

good, but the two through five are not as loaded as what Boston has. It's one of the most talented starting fives of this century, like legitimately in that top tier. And so when you have the reputation where we do see the tremendous variance for him game to game because of his reliance on pull-up threes where he's not always the most efficient, when you think about some of the turnover issues that he had in the finals run, especially in late game situations, the offense just sort of devolving and Tatum is at the center of that was really bad in game 7 against the heat,

was bad in game 6 against the Warriors in the finals. It just feels like he is a guy who has all of the perfect storm circumstances coming together for this to just be a pressure cooker. Like pressure's on him in basically every sense. He has the overwhelming advantages and he hasn't proven it. This is the year he's got to do it. Yeah, it's funny because I think Janus definitely has some pressure. Like, yeah.

He's won one playoff series since he hoisted the trophy. In an Eastern conference, by the way, that's pretty top-heavy. And usually if you have a decent regular season, you have a very winnable first-round matchup. Now, the important context is there was no Chris Middleton in 2022, and they lost to a Celtics team that I didn't think they had much of a chance to beat. And to Janus's credit, he was amazing in that series. And then obviously he missed games in 2023 with an injury. That said, he didn't play well in that series against Miami.

And a lot of the same issues that plagued him before he was a champion, rose to the surface. He was turning the basketball over a lot. He was missing a ton of free throws. And then the lack of any sort of reliable over the top shot, whether it's a hook shot or a little short jumper or whatever it is, those were big things that rose to the surface when they lost to Miami last year. Since then, Nicole Yokich has overtaken him by some clearly discernible margin.

I was actually thinking about this the other day. I think the lead that Yokic has over the league has become pretty significant all of a sudden. when you kind of look around and you start to really parse out the strengths and weaknesses of some of these guys. But then, you know, for Janus, they go and trade for a bona fide superstar guard to help him with all of that stuff. So like, I want to be clear. Like if Janus loses in the first or second round, that's not a good look. So like there's definitely some pressure on him. And I think we all agree that the Bucks, they have the chance, they have the potential to win the title and they have the potential to lose in that first or second round.

They're very much a high ceiling, low floor type of team. That said, none of that even comes close to acknowledging the fact that Janus is a champion and Jason Tatum is not. And when you really dig into it, I 100% agree. I put in my notes, plays in the most talented starting five in the league, in my opinion. He's about to turn 26 years old here in early March. That's the age where you start to expect a young star to kind of break through in the playoffs. And Boston's going to like run away with the number one overall seed.

They are 2.5 games up on the second seed right now, and they have an insanely easy remaining schedule. Their opponents, for the remainder of their schedule, have only won 45.3% of their games, just comically easy. And so the other thing that kind of is showing, I would say, a point of pretty significant pessimism for me. One of the biggest discouraging elements of this season from Jason Tatum has been, even though he put on all this additional muscle, leaning so strongly into the pull-up jump shot. And so I wanted to give you guys some numbers, because we had to stretch there late December, early January, where he had it going. And it was like, oh, is he finally going to break through? And this is going to be like the start of what all

that hard work was for as Jason Tatum becomes this dynamic pull-up shooter. And then in 10 games, in his last 10 games, just 33 for 93 on pull-up jump shots, just 0.91 points per attempt, basically where he's been for years. And then the biggest concerning part there is 93 attempts in 10 games. Yeah. And that's 9.3 per game. And so here's the last stat that I want to give you guys. Seven players in the NBA this year have attempted at least 400 pull-up jump shots.

Jason Tatum, 400 at 46.6% effective field goal percentage. Anthony Edwards, 413 on 44.3% effective field goal percentage or another similar issue, and that kind of goes to a lot of the stuff I've talked about with Minnesota and, like, their potential to lose a series they shouldn't lose just because of poor decision making by their primary shot creators. But this is where it gets interesting. SGA, 440 attempts, 53% effective field goal percentage. Devin Booker, 441 attempts, 52% effective fieldgo percentage. Trey, 459 attempts, 52% effective fieldgo percentage.

Jalen Brunson, 476 attempts, 53% effective fieldgo percentage. Luca Donchich, 560 attempts, 51% effective vehicle percentage. You know what's a point of commonality between those five names? They're all guards. None of them are six nine freak athletes that are just completely jacked. Like, that's the difference. Like, Shea has good athletic tools, but he is not Anthony Edwards. Like, Devin Booker as a two guard is a middle of the pack athlete, if not a little bit below average.

Trey Young is not an athletic guard. Jalen Brunson is not an athletic guard. Luca Donchich is a groundbound forward. They need to rely on those types of shots and they're way better at them. And Jason Tate, if you look at it, that's half of his shot diet. he's going into games and actively hunting and pursuing these shots. And he can't make them at a high enough clip for it to make sense for him to do so. And so to me, like, when we came into this season,

we all agreed that the number one thing that mattered as it pertained to Boston and their ability to win the title was going to be offensive process. Could they be deliberate enough to get the right shots consistently enough to win against another team that's on their tier, a team like Milwaukee, a team like Denver, a team like the Clippers, right? And like,

that to me is just screaming like he doesn't get it. He doesn't get it. And like, once again last night, I'm watching him. And he had a couple tough ones. And it's like, I'm watching him,

I'm like, dude, you were the best player on this floor by a mile. By a mile. And you're actively hunting some of the toughest shots that a basketball player can take in a game. It was definitely discouraging.

But I'm off my soul. box. So let's move on to our next topic. Who is more likely to perform well in this year's postseason run? Damien Lillard or James Harden. Let's start with you Carson. What I think is difficult about this question is that they're in such different contexts. And so it's like how do we evaluate performing well when James Harden is going to be a third option who is matching up with team's third best perimeter defenders and whose primary responsibility is going to be to facilitate the offense really and then pick his spots, right, attacking maybe some of those weaker defenders in isolation and pick and roll and whatnot, as compared to Damian Lillard, who has to be

not just his team's second best player overall, but maybe their best offensive player, period, if that team wants to make noise in the playoffs. And in terms of half court offensive creation, by far their number one guy. You talked about how Janice melted down under those circumstances last year against a really great one-on-one defender like Bam who can match up with him physically. That lack of shot making can hurt him.

The turnovers can hurt him. As you said, get in the line. He can't convert in those situations. It's going to be about what Dame can do as this great pick and roll shot maker and facilitator. So they do have different roles. And I have been concerned by some stuff with Dame as of late. I think the lack of rim pressure.

He hasn't looked quite as quick as we're used to. His perimeter shooting has not been what we're used to for a lot of this year. He's just 34% from deep. And Harden has been doing really well in his specific role. But I would just rather have Dame for a playoff run. I think that there is certainly more upside. I still can see a takeover just flame thrower shooting run from him. And I can see him creating a bunch of opportunities for his teammates,

it's because of the stress that he puts on defenses and demanding the guys come out 30 feet to guard the pick and roll. Hardin, I think, you know was going to fall within some range. And maybe he is a good efficient third option this year, but we've just seen too many times before when he tries to carry that heavier burden as a volume score, he falls apart for various reasons. Last year, it was real struggles to get to the rim. And then against athletic defenses,

an inability to finish at the rim where he shot like 30% in that playoff run. it is the reliance on formulaic offense, which got better in last year's playoff run. He was taking more mid-range jumpers, but historically has been an issue. It's the reliance on getting to the line when you're not going to get those same calls. For all those reasons, Hardin has consistently struggled to be the same player in a playoff run that he is in the regular season. This year could be different because he doesn't have that same burden. But I just think Dame is better.

And I think that Dame has much more potential to go on like a legitimately torrent run where you look at and you say, yeah, he was the reason. that they made it this far. Well said, Carson. I mean, it really does come down to like reputation for me. Am I going to go with one of the biggest, you know, playoff chokers, the guy who continuously lets us down? Or am I going to go with a guy who has a reputation as a stone cold killer? I do agree with you.

It's drastically different situations, but I'm going to go with the killer. I believe when the chips are down that Dame's a gamer. And on the biggest stage, his game, another level. This has been a down year for Dame. But I think on the biggest stage, there's just a level of trust and confidence.

confidence that I have in Dame to step his game up. So I'm going with Dame. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

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Yeah, it's interesting because, Carson, I think you did a really nice job of breaking down the difference between the two guys and what they're expected to do for their teams. I don't think there's any question that Dame is probably a better player in terms of just like what he can do to help a team in the playoffs. but I think James Harden just has a much easier job on both ends of the floor, by the way. Like, even at, like, Dame actually needs to be a decent perimeter defender for Milwaukee to kind of reach their ultimate goals. He's got to be engaged on that end of the floor. Like James Hardin, they literally can just hide him because Terrence Mann can guard on the perimeter, because Paul George can guard on the perimeter, because Kauai Leonard can guard on the perimeter, he's going to consistently get a significantly easier perimeter defense assignment.

And then when he has the ball, he's going to catch a significantly lesser perimeter defender in the way that dame is going to get the best of the guys, right? And then one of the things that I thought was really interesting, here's a stat for you guys, it's interesting. Last year, when James Hardin shot below 40% from the field, the Sixers were seven and eight in the regular season and three and four in the postseason, in large part because, like, they needed him. They needed him to be a guy who was consistently productive on the offensive end of the floor.

This year, the Clippers are 10 and 6 when James Harden shoots below 40% of the field. And one of those losses was in that early stretch of the season when they were just like unbelievably terrible. And so I think it's one of those things where it gets, it gets complicated because I think these two players kind of get lumped in together. And I actually want to ask a follow up regarding that. But like, like the reality is, is like I think we could come out of this. this postseason run thinking James Hardin is a better playoff player because he has an easier job. And it's a great example of how when we have these kinds of conversations, it's important to acknowledge the difference in just what a player is expected to do for their team relative to

some of their peers around the league. It was one of the biggest things that bothered me back in, like the 2018 finals or 2017 finals, it's like, oh, Katie outplayed LeBron. It's like he's not nearly asked to do as much as what LeBron was asked to do for his team. It's not even in the same ballpark. And so those sorts of things need to be kind of discussed when we're getting into those weeds. But before we move on, who do you think has the more impressive playoff resume, Damian Lillard or James Hardin? We'll start with you, Carson. I honestly think that it's Hardin, and I'm about as low on playoff Hardin as I feel like any reasonable person would be. But the reality is, Logan, you talk about the killer thing with Dame, and there is this pervasive.

narrative that Dame is just a dude who steps up to the big moment. But in terms of playoff production, like, it's not like he's elevated his game from what we've seen in the regular season. In fact, he's generally been inferior. He had that awesome first round series in 2021 where he was like unstoppable. That's kind of the only time that I've looked at Dame's playoff performance and been like, oh boy, you really showed them. He's had some rough series other than that. His career efficiency in the postseason is significantly down. And Hardin yes, has disappointed, but it's about expectations to some extent. Like he's coming from these monumentally great all-time offensive regular seasons,

and then he can't sustain that. And so if he gives you 30 and 8 on, say, 59% true shooting instead of 35 and 8 on whatever, 64% true shooting, you're like, that guy fell off. He fell off relative to expectations, but he still at his prime was just a nightmare to deal with an isolation. So the things that brought him down are very, very real and they're important. And I will always stand on the side of regular season James Harden is not equivalent to play off James Harden. There's tangible reasons for that that we've seen time and again. So don't elevate him into the greatest offensive players of all time conversation. But versus Dame,

I would argue that he's actually done more impressive things in the postseason. I honestly think I'd go with Dame. I understand what you're saying, Carson. I mean, to me, Hardin's style of play is always going to, or when he was at his apex, that style of play was always going to suffer in the playoff context. I think Dane was always more of a seamless, you know, easy offense for his team. And I also think that Hardin's teams were always better. I think Damien was elevating Portland rosters that weren't that great to get there. Dave's not a great playoff performer, but I would take Dames's moments. what's your what's your and I and I hate that

I feel like that's like a little bit of a cop out answer but like yeah what's James Hardin's moment I don't know what James Hardin's moment I mean James Hardin's moment I guess is like the block shot being the closest guy to beating the Warriors in a playoff series for half decade when Dame was getting bounced in the first round and then he made it one time and without KD they washed him

I don't know it's not Jimmy Butler we're talking about game has this aura where people like he rises to the occasion he's a different player, but he's really not. And Hardin may regress, but Hardin's regressing again from all-time regular season player. Dame is coming from like fringe top 10 guy and he's kind of remaining fringe top 10 guy. I don't know. I think context matters a little bit with that too. Like I said with his team, I don't think Dame's teams were and Dame wasn't as good as Hardin at his apex. You know what I mean? Hardin was the better engine. I don't know. Dame has better moments and

I don't know, man, there's a the clutch factor. I don't trust James Hardin. I don't trust. I don't James Harden at all, man. I've seen James Harden crumble. I haven't seen Dame like completely collapse. This is a tough one because like that once again there's a lot of context. Like you're right, Dame's moments are better and he's definitely been bigger or better in like the bigger of the games. But then again, like James Hardin has more consistently been, you know, like he's a more accomplished regular season player. He's usually led teams to greater success. But then it's also important to acknowledge that I like I don't think dames ever had a team like the like that 2018 Rockets team I just don't think he has I don't think he's had a team that's had air Gordon and

Chris Paul and Klincappella and athleticism on the wings that can defend and like it I think it's complicated and I would say in terms of actual tangible accomplishment I lean towards James Hardin but in an in a vacuum if I could pick a player for their prime to put on like any basketball team. I think I'd probably still take game over James Hardin, which I think is the final differentiator. All right, two more. And then we're going to get out of here. Starting with you, Logan. Who is more likely to win the Western Conference? Luca Donchitz or Kevin Durant? I'm going to say Kevin Durant. And I really like the Dallas Mavericks, guys. The Dallas Mavericks are one of my favorite teams to watch simply because they have Luca Donchich and

Kyrie Irving. They are awesome when they are on. But wow, are they ugly when they are bad, man. The Mavs frustrate me beyond belief in their bad games when it's the Grant Williams show, when it's the role players suck on both of these teams, is what I'm getting at. Both the role players just completely blow and I don't have any confidence in them to do anything. Like Phoenix just has more top star power and I can imagine KD and Beal and book going crazy. They just have more top guys. Like, that really is the sole difference for me.

I can imagine Luca and Kyrie getting hot, but I cannot imagine the role players playing beyond their means. The Mabs are just too far away. Like, if you're giving Grant Williams big minutes, man, I'm sorry, dude, your team's not doing anything. You're relying on Josh Green and the boys, and there's just, there's not enough there. You need Dante X and you need Derek Jones.

I'm sorry. And the Sun's role players aren't that great either because the Suns still have their fatal flaws. The reliance on pull-up jump shooting. I think Nirkich, man, Carson, you were right, dude. I was so wrong. Dude, I tried to go to battle for NERC, bro. I tried to go to battle for NERC.

And I can't do it anymore, dude. He flips his hips and that man is running in cement back to the hoop. He is just immobile. So, like, I'm not confident neither of these teams. But to me, the Mads just don't have that third guy in the Sons do. Again, that feels like a cop-out answer because the Sons are very flawed. I can see them getting smoked defensively because of Nerkich. I can see them being way too relying on pull-up jumpers and notching 95 to 100 points in a couple of games because they just go cold from there.

You don't get enough pressure on the rim. But they got D-Booking KD. And they got Beale they can rely on in certain games. And they got Grayson Allen, who's been great as a spot-up guy. And I think he could swing a series. And there's just a few more role guys in Phoenix that I trust. So marginally, I would go with the sons. but I don't have a ton of faith in either of these teams.

I'm with you. The one argument for the Mavs would be that Lucas very likely going to be the best player on the floor in a theoretical matchup between these two, or he's just the best player between these two teams. And in playoff settings has been monumentally great, has taken his unbelievable regular season level and then gone up up another level. Part of that may be just from insane pull-up shooting runs, but there is the physical imposition. he gets where he wants on the floor. He's one of the three best playmakers in the league.

And so single-handedly he can carry you to some pretty special stuff. But it is different when you're talking about a team that has two top 10 players, in my opinion, in Kady and Book, both of whom can absolutely light you on fire. Karee is still an unbelievable offensive player, but I think that there's a level of separation between those guys and him. And then it is the third dynamic creator off the dribble, the third big time shot maker, the third guy who can pressure a defense and also playmake in Bradley Beal, who doesn't exist for the Mavs. The suns just have more overwhelming offensive strengths.

They do have issues. Logan, you mentioned the lack of rim pressure settling for mid-range jumpers, but they have just the personnel advantages and the spot-up shooting with Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon, guys who have had really, really good pure shooting seasons. And then if you look at the other side of the ball, it's not exactly a beauty pageant, like the sons are going to be okay defensively though and the maves have just been bad the mabs are an awful rebounding team the sons have been quite a good rebounding team i just think they are the better all around basketball team but i don't think it's likely that either of these

teams make a deep run because primarily of my concerns on the defense side of the ball and then because of some little things offensively yeah it's funny if you look at the stats it's pretty clearly Phoenix just based on the stats and I want to dive into this a little bit since Dallas started eight and two they're 18 and 20 in their last 38 games in that span that's been the 19th best record in the league 17th in offense 23rd in defense 26th in defensive rebounding they've had a lot of injuries I want to make sure that that's clear they've had 14 different players start games for them this season but when Luca and Kyrie both play, they're 12 and 10, which is pretty mediocre.

On the Sun's front, Bradley Beal has played in 18 straight games. The Suns are 13 and 5 in those 18 games, which is the fourth best record in the league. They have the third best offense in the league over that span. 14th in defense. 21st in defensive rebounding, not good, but better than Dallas has been. So the standings and some of the numbers very clearly point the Mavs and Sons as very different teams. But it does get complicated when you start to look at the playoff setting because I agree. I put it in my notes.

I think Luca is the best player on either team. I think he's a devastating playoff player with the unique capability to strangle the pace, to make opposing stars lose confidence to. He has uniquely different from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. He has the ability to really physically impose his will on an NBA playoff game. I think all of that is vitally important. And so this is where I've given. get into the kind of playoff setting. And I want to pitch this back to you guys for a second.

So if we agree that the core five for Phoenix is going to be matchup dependent, but it's going to probably be Bradley Beale, Kevin, Devin, Boker, Grayson Allen, and Eric Gordon with probably Nirkich in for Eric Gordon against teams that have bigger centers. And then they'll probably go small against other teams. The core five for Dallas, we're probably getting Derek lively and Grant Williams in that four or five spot, right? Then it's probably going to be one of either Tim Hardaway, Jr., Josh Green, or Derek Jones Jr. in that three spot.

Depending on, again, what the matchup is. This year, they've leaned a lot on Tim Hardaway Jr. and clutch time, which leads me to believe that they'd probably go that direction. I'd probably go with Josh Green or Derek Jones, Jr. If it was my decision, but it's going to be one of those guys. And then it's Kyrie and Luca.

And when you really get down to it and you scale minutes up and you lean heavily on those groups, and we acknowledge that there's a diminishing return with a third star on the floor. That's a ball handler and kind of like a heavy ball handling type of system. Let's pitch it back to you guys. We'll start with you, Carson.

When you really dig into those five guys, which of those two lineup groupings do you think has more capability of beating one of the higher level playoff teams in the Western Conference? It's an interesting question because in some ways, that Mavs lineup checks more different boxes and that you still have your two shot creators. But then on the wings, you have a bit more physicality at the very least. You have your hyper athletic big who can impact the game more defensively. And as a rim finisher than old Nerk who oftentimes look like he's stuck in cement as Logan mentions.

So from that perspective, it's interesting because you think if the sons are going to get kind of bullied, no matter how good they are offensively, can they get enough stops against another great team? And maybe the formula is, and again, both these teams are flawed defensively, but it does feel like in terms of the physicality arena, the Mavs match up a little bit better, maybe that's their advantage and then Luca goes nuclear. But to me, the principle is the same. I just think that's a more skilled, offensive lineup for the Sons. There's more ball handling.

There's more dynamic shooting overall. Neither of these teams are going to win a series on the back of their defense. So I would take the team that I think has the better path to to elite offense. I would take Phoenix for two reasons. One, if the Mavericks are forced to play the Michelin man, Grant Williams, they are doomed. Oh my God. They're done for it. Two.

That's Batman, bro. Put some respect on Batman. Dude, Logan has just been just straight slander in this episode. He hates Grant Williams. Grant Williams is such a bozo, man. All right. The second reason, I know that in theory, Dallas. has the personnel to be a good deal.

I get what you guys are saying. With grants, a little bit of a stockier for, should be able to match up physically well. Derek Jones Jr. has bounced. Derek lively is a great athlete. I've seen two really bad games, and I don't know if there were injuries in these games, but there's two games to me from Dallas that stick out like sore thumbs.

The one where Luca went crazy against Atlanta, and Atlanta kept pace that entire game. And then the other game that I point to is when Dallas played Phoenix, man, I was talking trash to all of my friends who were Phoenix fans. I was like, oh, dude, Luca owns your poverty franchise. You guys stink. And then the Suns literally just came back and blew the Mavericks out. Like, you can have your qualms about the Sun's defense.

I don't think Dallas's defense is in a different enough tier. I don't think their athletic advantages are enough to really make a meaningful difference to me. I think they're, you know, they're wet paper bag defenses, man. You know, they just, you tear right through them. And they're slower on the perimeter, Dallas. They may be stronger, but they're slower. They are. I'm going to take Luca and the Mavs.

I think, let's use this as example. I don't think either team has really any chance to beat Denver, but let's look at like a Clippers matchup. Like the Clippers would just play Suns basketball and do it better and beat them. I could see Luca strangling the pace, playing them into their worst tendencies, physically imposing his will on the game, picking on matchups.

I don't think either of these teams are that good or that either of them really have that type of, you know, I should say, they both have championship potential, but like I mean like real like, you know, like substantial championship potential.

But if I had to pick one guy to notch an upset in a later round and maybe just sneak his way in, I'm going to take Luca in that group. but I think a lot of people are off of his scent after last year's missing the playoffs. And I just, I think I'm on the fence between the two. And given that circumstance, I'm going to lean towards Luca. All right, last one before we get out of here. We'll start with you, Carson.

Who would you rather build a franchise around if you were starting from scratch right now? Anthony Edwards or Shay Gilges Alexander? This is a real heartbreaker of a question. And in fact, we did before this season, our like, top got top 10 guys 25 and under to build a franchise around. I believe I had them either three and four or four and five. And I had ant one spot above SGA. I think I'm going to flip now.

Oh, did I have SGA above? You had we both had SGA four and five. All right, perfect. I never switch up. I'm sticking with SGA then. And I think that what's tough about this conversation is we are viewing a more final version of SGA, just in that he's a couple years older. I'm not saying either these dudes are totally what they're going to be for the rest of their careers.

But I think the aunt still has more room for growth. But there's a big gap between these two as basketball players right now. There's a big gap. And I think the key advantages for me with SGA are, first of all, the level of control that he imposes over a basketball game. The ability out of pick and roll to dictate the pace, to play make at a really high level. He just is the captain of an offense in a way that Ant isn't right now. and I'm not sure he will be. I also think you look at the versatility in shot making that SGA has.

It's legitimately unbelievable. He's one of the hardest dudes in the league to stay in front of, not because of straight line speed, but because of maybe the nastiest change in pace that I've ever seen. Nobody shifts gears like SGA. But then he is also one of the most devastating mid-range shooters in the league. He's so great at using physicality to create space there. He has this ballerina body control where he's just going to get where he walks,

on the floor and at the same time, like he's been crazy efficient out of the post when he wants and he's got such good footwork and body control down there. He just has a mastery of the skilled scoring and doing that in various different ways that Ant doesn't have. And these guys are both elite athletes. It's just different. Ant is like your prototypical 99th percentile strength, 99th percentile explosiveness, 99th percentile vertical ability.

SGA's athleticism to me is in the shiftiness. It's in the balance, the body control. He just does stuff in the paint navigating that nobody else on the planet can. And then I think if you look at the defensive side of the ball, I think that they have very similar potential. I do like SGA a bit more as a help defender. And I think that what we've seen from him in terms of defensive playmaking this year has been super impressive.

His length can just be game changing at times. And has that stronger base. So it's similar, but I do think, It comes down to the like all around dominant versatile scoring plus really high end playmaking with SGA. And I think you have the crazy rim pressure. You have the pull up shooting stretches, but you just don't have that sort of all around polish. And I'm not sure if you will on the level of SGA.

But I think both these guys are perennial MVP candidates for years and years. Yeah, I think if you're ever in this scenario, you were blessed as an NBA franchise. guys, if these were the two guys you were picking between. I'm actually going to flop here, Carson. I also had SGA 4 and Ant 5. And I think you make a great point. SGA is definitely more realized, you know, to his full potential. I don't think Ant's done yet. And I just think the physical level of pressure that he is going to be able to put on the rim, I think that the special kind of strong, vertical, quick athlete that he is. I just think that I don't think he's done. I mean, I think we're going to see him just become effectively unstoppable.

And I think his game, SGA, I think, is more tailored to the playoffs right now. Like, if you were asking me for this season, what guy do I want more to go on a run? There's a lot more polished on SGA. I trust him way more as an offensive engine and initiator. But I see a different ceiling because of Ant's athletic advantages. That being said, I can make a good point. I don't know if Ant's ever going to be the, I don't think and is capable of becoming the kind of pull-up an unstoppable shooter that SGA is in the lane.

He is one of the most special in the league, but I'm going to take those physical advantages. I just think that matters a little more. I think that Ant is going to be an unstoppable tank. And if he can couple that with elite pull-up jump shooting, weaponizing his rim pressure into playmaking, like I just think he's got, he's already great. But I think there is even more room to grow with Anthony Edwards. So I'm going to take Ant. The, you know, kind of important phrase that kind of,

kind of dictates this conversation as starting a franchise with. Because a couple of caveats, I do think SGA is a better basketball player right now. And I do think that he would navigate a playoff environment a little bit better than it right now. I do think that they are very, very different archetypes of players. And so it can also get complicated in the sense that like some of the stuff that Anthony Edwards is not good at is kind of natural for his archetype and some of the stuff that SGA is not good at is kind of natural for his archetype and so on and so forth. here's the big difference for me. I think Anthony Edwards is not only on a trajectory

in the bigger picture that I think could take him to a significantly higher level than he is now, but he also has the, I think he's a more natural fit alongside other stars. Anthony Edwards is actually a decent off-ball scorer, and I mean that off-the-move, like coming off-ball screens, cutting to the rim,

and he's just a much better catch-and-shoe player. which is a significant advantage when it comes to playing alongside other players around the league. SGA has just a tiny bit of that, like, heliocentric when the ball's in my hands and I'm in rhythm. Everything looks good, but then my value tends to take a dip when I'm not on the ball as much. And then everything with Anthony Edwards is a pretty strong indicator of him being a great shooter in the long run. For starters, his last 25 games, because like, remember at the beginning, of this year, he was kind of a little bit rough around the edges offensively. Anthony averages the last 25 games, 27 points per game, five rebounds, five assists,

49% from the field, 41% from 3 and 84% from the line. And he's on like pretty decent volume from 3. He's taking something like six 3s a game over that span. So like, that's a, that's a third of the season that he's been a high volume 40% three point shooter. And like, you see it in the foul shooting, you see it in the hot stretches of pull-up shooting. Like, I think when we fast forward a few years, he's going to be a devastating combination of downhill force and power with pull-up shooting. And again, like, if I'm starting a franchise, I know that I can bring in another high-usage offensive player and that aunt's going to be able to kind of like fit in with him well and make that all work. I also think, you know,

Carson, you mentioned Shea's off ball defense, and I agree, is excellent instincts and length and ability to kind of just get in and make plays. But the important distinction there is like, Ant's still not very good at that stuff off the ball. And like I think there's a version of this five years from, like when I think about 27-year-old Anthony Edwards, I think about a guy that could be the best player in the world. That's the potential that I think he has.

Whereas like Shea, I think he kind of is already pretty close to what his ceiling is at this point. and there are some areas where he can prove specifically off the ball, right? But to me, Ant is already pretty close to as good as Shea is, and he's got so much more room for improvement. And then you guys know me just in general. I talked about this with Luca versus KD, but like, give me the guy who can physically impose as well on the game.

Like that to me is such a huge element to winning in the playoffs. Like, you can just imagine Ant being this ridiculous matchup attacking back to the basket guard in the postseason and like he thrives in like ultra physical environments and you know I think I think that to me is just the differentiator in the long run I do have one last question before we get out of here and we'll start with you Logan like are you expecting Shea to have a drop off in efficiency and production in this postseason or do you think he'll be able to sustain it? That's a great question. I think you made a great point Jason about him being a heliocentric player. I think that in that archetype, I think those players are just always more susceptible because,

I mean, just think about it. I mean, you're every possession, you're having to play defense, you're on ball. Then on the other side of the ball, you're got the ball in your hands. Like, you're just going to get inherently tired. Through out a series, who had a game, it's just going to wear you down. So I think he is more susceptible to that. I don't know, man. I don't think I could ever predict SGA to like fall.

He's so dynamic. He can get to whatever spot he wants. Now, I think that. That's the big factor. Is that game five, game six, game seven, is he going to be downtrodden? Is it going to be worn out? That scares me. At the end of regular games where he's playing 40 minutes a night, is he going to be worn out?

I don't know. That's the one area where I think he could maybe be susceptible to lulls to falling off. But in terms of shot diet, decision making shots he gets to, there are very few players in the NBA that I expect their games will translate better to the postseason. And because SGA can do it from everywhere, he's a great playmaker. He does everything. My only concern is just him getting really worn out and tired from having to carry the burden, that entire offensive burden. Yeah, I would expect SGA to be a guy who actually scales really well to the playoffs.

And I think that you make a great point, Jason, an advantage that Ant has. And a lot of the great playoff risers have, Jimmy Butler, Kauai Lent. They are dudes who can impose themselves with strength. The ultimate advantage of that is that you get to your spots no matter what in that physical environment. I feel like SGA is the exception, though, in that he is so masterful with the pace that he plays at, that I can't really see people keeping him out of the paint even in that playoff environment. Again, he's not going to do it with strength, but he's going to do that with those shifts and gears. and he doesn't have to get to the rim.

And at this stage, really, it's mostly threes or its attempts at the rim. And he's like a crazy contested finisher because he's such a great athlete. And he has been a really good shooter this year and continue to grow there. But if you do try to wall off an SGA drive, well, he can just devastate you with that short mid-range shot making. And he's the better playmaker at this stage. So I expect SGA to have quite a debut in the playoffs as the guy. He's been there before, but not as this superstar player.

but I also think Anzegai is going to get better in the playoffs. And Anzagai who's already gotten better in the playoffs because, yeah, his strength scales very well. And his pull-up shooting has been really good in those settings. But I think SGA is a dude who, I mean, maybe not in a world where Nikol Yokic exists, but, you know, in a post-yokic world, I think he could have best player in the world sealing too, along with that. An important thing we didn't even touch to is like, Ants getting you 27, 5 and 5 on 49, 41, 84 splits. and there's no question that the thunder provide is significantly more spaced out environment

for SGA to operate in. Just by virtue of just having a legitimate stretch five that you have to close out to and just all of the ball handling and shooting around him, I think it's a little bit more of an easy setup. The reason why I brought that up as kind of a playoff scenario is specifically the shifty types. And I'll give you an example, James Harden.

The shifty types that lean heavily on heliocentric shot creation from the same spots on the floor. One of the things we see is like, yeah, that hesitation moves pretty nasty, but what if a singular perimeter defender sees it 150 times in two weeks? You know, James Hardin has this ridiculous, you know, left to right crossover, step back, jump shot combination, like the set of counter moves that he uses. And then what ends up happening is the same perimeter defender sees it 150 times and by game six and game seven, he has a good read on that hesitation.

He has a good read on when he's going to go to that left to right cross. He has a good read on how to kind of like close the gap on that stepback jump shot without fouling and making it into a tougher shot. Whereas like those supremely gifted athletes, they tend to actually get more and more separation as series prolonged because they're the Energizer Bunny because there are those groups. And I agree with you, Carson. I don't think,

it's not that I don't think Shay has best in the world potential. I just think, I think if I had to rank where they are right now, SGA is clearly over Ant. But for me personally, if I had to rank ceilings, I think Ant's ceiling is higher than SGA's right now just because of those gifts. All right, we've got to get out of here. One real quick thing about why SGA feels different in the playoffs to me than Hardin. I do think it comes down to the variety of counters as one thing. I think that he simply has more moves that he can turn to at any point. I think right, the spins, creating separation with a little long.

arm bar into the mid-range stepback. And that's the other key point. Hardin was very reliant on the stepback three specifically. And you talked earlier about Tatum, the concerns with the volatility about his pull-up, his reliance on pull-up threes. And Hardin just never shot as well in the playoff settings from deep. So I totally agree about the predictability with him. And I just, or SGI, I just feel is different because he gets to his spots in and around the paint and because he is so creative and versatile in those spots. Yeah, I don't, I want to be clear. I'm not, I'm not, comparing SGA to Hardin in terms of like I expect him to be a playoff flame out. That's not what I mean.

I just mean more like a guard shot creator that doesn't necessarily rely on supreme athleticism to get to his spots, but relies more on like the, you know, kind of the change of pace and change of direction kind of stuff. Like I do think that I do think it's on the table. And I'm just curious to see. I am curious to see how SGA handles real playoff game planning. And like what happens if he does? Let's say they run into Minnesota.

What does Jaden McDaniels guarding SGA look like in game six? What does it look like in game seven? I'm just curious. That's all it is. And like just NBA history tells us the supreme athlete types. They tend to be less susceptible to that kind of thing in late series than the more finesse oriented types. But to be clear, I do not think SGA is the next James Hart. And I never intended for it to be like that.

That was just kind of an example of just playoff, just kind of the dynamic that shifts. says you get later into a playoff series. All right, Carson, before we get out of here, can you guys tell us about what you guys are working on over at NerdSesh right now? Absolutely. So we're doing three shows a week. We're talking both NBA and NFL,

but the sense of Super Bowl is coming up, that is going to be overwhelmingly NBA. And then we also do some trivia stuff. And if you want to check out our YouTube page, just look up NerdSesh. On top of our full shows, we are doing some in-depth video essay breakdown sort of stuff where we'll take a specific player or a team

and for 10, 12 minutes. will really dive deep in there with film. So if you're interested in that, that's all at the NerdSest YouTube page. Carson and Logan do an amazing job over there at NerdSest. Make sure you get over there and subscribe and support those guys. We will see you guys, Carson and Logan, two weeks from today. Everybody else, I will see you guys on Monday. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite.

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