The Herd with Colin Cowherd - HoopsTonight - NBA Power Rankings: Jimmy Butler & Miami Heat eyeing run to NBA Finals

Episode Date: September 17, 2022

Jason Timpf breaks down the Miami Heat ahead of the 2022-2023 NBA season as Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and company hope to avenge their Eastern Conference Finals loss to the Boston Celtics. #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games.

This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen and learn the hard way on the IHare radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. The volume. What's up guys?

It's Jason from Hoops Tonight, presented by Fandual. Football season is here. And there is no better place to get in on the action than with Fanduel. It's my favorite sports gambling app out there. It's safe, secure, and easy to use. They have exclusive offers, tons of ways. to play like spread and money line over unders, team totals. Same game parlays where you can combine multiple bets from the same game.

My favorite feature is that cash out feature. So if you already feel pretty good about your bet and you're in good shape but you don't want to lose whatever it is based on some stupid thing with garbage time at the end, you can cash out your winnings before the end of the game. Use promo code Jason T and download the Fanduel app today to make every moment more this football season. 21 plus and present Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, permitted parishes only, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia.

First online real money wager only. Refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook. Fandul.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533442 in Arizona. 1-88-7-89-77 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia. 1-877-7-770 stop in Louisiana. 1-800-270-1-117 for confidential help in Michigan. 18778 Hope N.Y or text Hope N.Y to 467-369 in New York. In Tennessee, redline, dial 1-800-889-9-97889 in Tennessee. Visit www.w.w.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight, presented by Fanduel here at the volume. Happy Thursday, everybody. I hope all of you guys are having a great week so far. We are all to the weekend, continuing our power rankings with number 10 today and then number nine tomorrow

and then into the next week we will hit the final eight over the course of the next couple weeks and then starting September 30th, we're right back into game breakdown, something I'm very, very excited for. You guys know the drill before we get started. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT so you guys don't miss any show announcements. Subscribe to the volumes YouTube channel. You don't miss any more of our videos. And if you miss one of these videos and you can can't get back over to YouTube to finish. You can get them in audio form wherever you get your podcasts under hoops tonight. So we are in a tier, a tier that I've called the Punchers Chance Tier,

the tier of teams that I don't quite think have as much talent as the best teams in the league, but they have these wild cards, these players that have such big upsides that if they were to get hot for one reason or another, they could carry their team to the ultimate goal. They're long shots, but they absolutely have a chance, like the Lakers with LeBron James and AD, the Memphis Grizzlies with John Morant, and at number 10, the Miami Heat with Jimmy Butler. Now, you've got to factor in this off season when we're projecting Ford, not just looking at what the team was last year. Memphis, for instance, lost in the second round of the playoffs

in six games to the eventual champion and had the second best record in basketball. So your gut tells you automatic top eight, right? But I'm looking at that and I'm going, what was their biggest weakness? Well, it was shot creation and ball handling. Did they get any better on that front? No, I'd argue they got worse because they lost the Anthony Melton, who's probably their best bench shot creator in all likelihood. So when you look at that situation and you factor in the Jaron Jackson injury,

I have to move them down on my list. And so they fell back to number 10. Also, I'm factoring in ultimate playoff ceiling, and I think their lack of shot creation makes it extremely difficult for them to eventually get the trophy. After Jaws, they just don't have enough. Moving forward to the Miami Heat, it's very similar. You know, this is a Miami Heat team that had a weakness in shot creation. Did they address it?

No, they did not. Did they get any better anywhere else on the roster? No, they did not. As a matter of fact, they lost PJ Tucker, and now they're very thin, the front court. So from that standpoint, and especially when I think other teams in the Eastern Conference are going to be better this year, I think Boston will be better with all the additions they've made. I think Milwaukee will be better just by being healthy. I think Philadelphia will be better just because James Hardin will have a better season and I believe continuity will start to

begin trying to integrate hard and that late in the season is just very difficult to do. I think giving him a full training camp and full season will go a long way towards how. helping them. The Eastern Conference is better, and the Miami Heat got worse. So that's going to move them down the list for me. So again, and someone said this in the YouTube comments yesterday, and I got a little chuckle out of it, but like someone said, like, I'm not really all that interested in Jason's numbers. The analysis is better. It's funny because that's the way I see it, too. I'd be lying to you if I said that I care deeply about ranking, you know, the 10th and 11th and 12th best teams in the league in terms of the number of ranking. I am obviously more drawn towards

the analysis portion and really diving into the film and seeing what the teams like to do, seeing what they're good at and what they're bad at. That's what interests me the most. But I do put a certain amount of effort in to where I rank teams and I will attempt to have some kind of reasoning. And I wanted to give a little bit of background on why teams are where they were in that section of the list. So the Miami Heat last year were 53 and 29. They lost in the Eastern Conference finals to Boston, and they had one Jimmy pull-up three in transition

that had it gone in would have sent Miami in all likelihood to the NBA finals, although Boston would have had a chance to take the lead on the other end. They finished the regular season, 12th in offense and fourth in defense. During the off-season, like we mentioned before, they lost PJ Tucker to the Sixers. They re-signed Victor Oladipo, which I thought was good.

I like Victor Oladipo a lot. Offensively, he's not nearly what he was when he was in Indiana. Still isn't shooting the ball as well as he needs to to be a real shot creator. But defensively, he's still nearly as good as he used to be. And as a point of attack defender, that just brings a lot of value in the NBA. And so I thought it was a good bet from Miami, hoping that some of his shot creation stuff improves over the course of this season. And with what he brings defensively, I think he's a playoff player.

I like Victor Oladipo. That was a smart resigning. But he was on the floor in the Eastern Conference finals last year, so it's not something that improves the roster. They drafted with their first round draft pick, a big swing forward, kind of like a, you know, he's a very, very tall wing. I don't think he's big and strong enough to be a big,

but Nicola Jovich is who they drafted. I think with the loss of PJ, Tucker, they'll end up needing him to play a lot in all likelihood. You'll notice that as we start to look at the depth chart. So it's going to be really important for Heat culture to engage early on and get him ready to play NBA basketball. But I do not think that that is beyond the capabilities of the Miami Heat organization and beyond the capabilities of Eric Spolstra. I've said this before, but I view the Miami Heat as Warriors East. I think that they maximize their talent better than anybody in the Eastern Conference. I think Eric Spolstra is the best coach in the Eastern Conference.

I think in terms of taking what they get and getting the absolute most out of it, they are the best at that. So maybe they'll be able to maximize that. However, they do have legitimate talent deficiencies, and we will get into that as we get further into this show. So looking at the depth chart, at the guard position, they have Kyle Lowry, Victor Oladipo, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Max True's, although Max Trues is big and strong enough to guard wings. On the wing, they have Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Harrow, and Nicholas Jovich. I'm calling him a wing because I don't think he'll be able to guard Biggs, and the general rule of thumb in basketball is your position is who you can guard, not what you do on the

offensive end of the floor. Biggs, Bamette Abio and Dwayne Dedman. They also have Omer Yurt 7 and Orlando Robinson, but I don't view either of them as impactful players. Yurt 7 will probably have to play quite a bit. with the loss of PJ Tucker, they're probably going to have to go bigger than they're used to going. But at the end of the day, this is a team that's going to go down with Bam at a bio at the five, and none of those other guys are going to play.

So this is a team that is a little bit thin at the forward position, especially with size and strength with the loss of PJ Tucker. My guess is at some point during this regular season, either in the buyout market or in the trade market, they will attempt to address that shortcoming. Looking at the offensive end of the floor, Miami runs an incredibly. incredibly diverse set of offensive sets. I think they're the most diverse offense in the Eastern Conference by organization, just in terms of the, just the deep repertoire of things that they run. They run a ton of like Denver Nuggets-esque dribble handoff stuff with Bamete a Bio operating out

of the high post and top of the key. General idea there is guards are coming over the top and getting handoffs from Bamatabio. Guys are going to have to chase over the top because of the shooting ability that allows them to get downhill. If Bam at a bios man drops back to help on those drives, he can turn in face, and now he has an advantage. So they can get a lot of stuff out of that. They do a lot of like four high sets. We went over this yesterday when we were talking about Memphis, but four high sets, you have two players at the high post, and you have two players on the extended wing, and then they run a lot of flex cuts out of that. So they'll have the guy at the high post run over and set a screen or sometimes just stay, and then that wing,

will cut off of that downhill to get into the paint. They do that a lot with screening actions involving Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler because both of them screen really well, and they're usually guarded by different positions, which allows one of them to get switches in a lot of cases. They also do a lot of clearing the side for Bam and Jimmy to run pick and roll. Pretty simple. Shooter at the top of the key, shooter on the wing,

shooter in the left corner. Then they'll put Jimmy on the right side of the floor with Bam, run, pick and roll. almost always results in a switch, and then the two of them frequently go into post-ups from there. They do run a considerable amount of post-ups with Bamat-A-Bio and Jimmy Butler. And then a lot of mismatch attacking in isolation, specifically with Jimmy Butler. They do not run a lot of isolations as a team, but Jimmy Butler himself still runs quite a bit, especially attacking mismatches. Didn't have a great season with that in the regular season last year, but as you guys saw in the postseason,

and he always takes it up a level and can generate great stuff out of that. The majority of their offense is dribble handoffs and off-screen actions. The main reason for this is they lack legitimate shot creation. Outside of Jimmy Butler, they don't have another player on the team that can consistently create his own shot. They have guys that do okay in specific matchups and will put up decent efficiency numbers on really low because they're picky about it. But in terms of volume, the only player that isolates and does it well and frequently is Jimmy Butler.

Because of that, they can't run an offense that is primarily predicated on attacking matchups. They have to run sets to get their guys in advantage. A lot of the guys on the roster, Kyle Lowry, even Max Drews, Gaye Vincent, Tyler, Harrow, these are all guys that can attack with an advantage. They're good advantage extenders. They're good play finishers, but they're not guys that create that initial advantage. It's a big part of why, in spite of the fact that they're so well coached, in spite of the

fact that their player development is so good that they were the 12th best offense in the league last year. Their half-court offense ended up being disastrous for them against Boston, and it was something they had to overcome throughout that specific series. One of the big reasons why that Boston series dragged out as long as it did to seven games was Boston running that stupid-ass drop coverage that I was criticizing them for the entire playoff run. It nearly got them beat against Miami, and it did get them beat against Golden State.

I thought it was EMA Udoka's biggest mistake of that playoff run. But by running that drop coverage, it allowed Miami's weakness, which is shot creation, to go unchallenged. And that was why that series extended the way that it did. In dribble handoff situations, they were second in frequency in the league, so they ran the second most dribble handoffs out of anybody in the NBA, and they were fourth

inefficiency. So when you let them get to their dribble handoff offense, they will score pretty well. That's why switching is the best defense to run against a Miami offense. It gives advantages to players that struggled to create advantages. Duncan Robinson, Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, and Jimmy Butler were all in the 70th percentile or better in dribble handoff situation, so they all did really well. Tyler Harrow was surprisingly inefficient. We're going to get to that later on in the show. And their off-screen offense, they were also the third most frequent off-screen

offense in the entire league. They were ninth in post-up frequency, 11th in post-up efficiency. Like I said, when they would clear the side for Jimmy Butler and Bamette Obio, nine times out of ten, it would result in a switch, and they'd pull the ball out, and whichever player they thought had a better match-up would take them down to the block, and that was where they were getting that type of offense. Jimmy and Bam combined for five and a half post-ups per game and scored at about one point per possession,

which is really good for post-ups. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.

So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross

double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Thank you finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Football season is underway, so now is the perfect time to download Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Because right now, new customers get a no-swet-first bet up to one-th-thous-one.

thousand dollars. That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win. Just sign up with promo code Jason T. There are two bets that I really like this weekend. I really like the Saints at home against the Buccaneers. They're two and a half point underdogs. They've always had the Buccaneers number, especially at home. I think that's a game they're going to win. And then I know I said I was going to fade the Dallas Cowboys all season. And yes, the Dack Prescott injury does not look promising. But seven and a half is a huge line. So I will be on the Dallas Cowboys plus seven and a half this week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Fanduel is my favorite sportsbook app.

It's safe. It's easy to use. It's easy to get your money out. And I really like that cash out feature, giving you the ability to take the winnings from your bet at a slight discount just so that you avoid any sort of shenanigans that could happen in garbage time. It's one of my favorite features. So sign up today with promo code Jason T for your no sweat first bet.

Make every moment more this season with Fandul, the official sportsbook partner of the NFL. they were 10th in ISO efficiency, but their volume was incredibly low. They only ran about six isolations per game, including 6.1 in the postseason. To give you some perspective, the Raptors, the wolves, the nets, the bucks, the mubs, and the sixers, all ran at least 10 or more isolations per game, some of them more than 15. So they're an extremely low volume isolation team because they're picky about when they do it, but they were relatively efficient slightly above average when they were.

did so. They also pushed the ball in transition selectively. They were a very efficient transition team. They just didn't do it often. They were one of the slowest pace teams in the league. Some of that's to be expected because of the age of their roster and athleticism is not necessarily a strength. They do have great athletes on the team, guys like Jimmy Butler in Bamatabio, but like Jimmy Butler's a little older. He's a little bit more of a strangle the pace type of forward, which I actually like. I prefer to strangle the pace because I think it throws other teams out of rhythm. But what Miami does really well, especially with their defense by being forwardly aggressive, by playing passing lanes and being aggressive on ball handlers, it forces

turnovers that allow you to push the ball in transition. They were 22nd in transition attempts, but sixth in transition efficiency. That's how it manifests when you're picky about when you run, when you run when you have an advantage, rather than just running for the sake of running. they were only an okay pick and roll team low in volume low in efficiency that's that's one of the biggest reasons why and as we zoom out from them on the offensive end of the floor and only pat riley knows what he offered and only danny aange knows whether or not he was really willing to consider it but i was really surprised that miami didn't go more all in for donovan mitchell he was a specific type of player that i thought would have been a really good fit for them because

of BAM's offensive versatility and what he could do as a ball screener. We talked a lot about this when we were doing the Utah Jazz stuff, excuse me, the Donovan Mitchell trade stuff in the Cleveland Cavalier stuff. Donovan Mitchell is one of the best volume pick and roll players in all of basketball. That would have been a really interesting dynamic to add to this team. He also did really well in isolation. So it was kind of a no-brainer to fix a very specific need on this roster. In addition to that like Donovan Mitchell's biggest weakness is defense right now, right? And the Miami Heat are kind of famous for pulling the best out of each other in that regard. And so I thought it was it was the perfect type of player for them to go after a player that I thought was somewhat achievable and it just didn't

pan out. And again, like only Pat Riley knows how close he came to actually pulling that off or whether there was something that he was passive about or not. I know there are lots of complications as it comes to the CBA for that kind of thing too, but that would have been a player that I really would have liked to see with Miami. Moving on to the defensive end of the floor. So they're a very, very switch-heavy team. This is to be expected. I've talked a lot about modern basketball. And if you guys have heard me talk about this, I've discussed that, in my opinion, the most effective modern offense strategy is five out because of how difficult it is to cover ground in space in the improved ball handling, shooting, and decision-making around the league.

If you can really spread a team and make them make multiple defensive rotations, you can get great stuff out of it. That's something I believe very strongly in. On the defensive end of the floor, I think that the best strategy is switching. We talked a lot about this. There's pros and cons to it. The downsides are is you tend to give up rebounding mismatches. You tend to give up isolation mismatches.

There are downsides. Guys will make shots over the top. guys will get offensive rebound putbacks. But the flip side of that is it requires a great deal of communication. And as long as you communicate well, it takes away physical exertion. It's hard physically to fight over the top of the screens. You get beat up, especially over the course of a series, even great chase over the top of screen teams.

Teams like Boston were eventually dying on screens because it's just really hard to do it, wears on you physically. it changes the exertion to something mental. So as long as you're focused, and as long as you've put in the amount of reps in practice, you can get good at switching so that you don't have to exert yourself physically. You just are paying attention in terms of mental exertion. And then most importantly, it stagnates the opponent.

When you switch actions, it neutralizes offensive sets, especially, again, like we said, if you do it right and if you do it well. As soon as you neutralize offensive sets, as soon as you neutralize pick and rolls, it turns teams into isolation teams. You know, in that first round series against Atlanta, for instance, and you Miami Heat fans probably remember this very well, almost from the opening tip, there was, Trey Young just didn't know what to do. He's coming off these ball screens, and instead of switching Bametabio is just running out on him.

and when he runs out on him, all of a sudden, he's just kind of looking around like, okay, what am I going to do? Isolate Bamatabio? Like, I'm not going to get around him. I'm going to shoot a crazy step back three. And it turned Atlanta's offense into the mud and slowed them down. They lost their rhythm and they really fell apart. And Trey Young had a nightmare series. I'm a huge believer in switching. And now there are a couple different things. You need to have the right personnel. right? Like, Bam at a bio, and we're going to talk about this a little bit more later, he's one of the best switching bigs in all of basketball.

Personnel helps. They're guards. Guys like Max Truce and Kyle Lowry can guard up a position. Like they're not going to get bullied by big forwards, at least not very easily. So that helps. So you got to have the right personnel, and you also have to do it well.

Like we talk a lot about schemes on the show, different offensive sets, you know, floor spacing, different pick and roll concepts, and then on the defensive end of the floor, we talk about different pick and roll coverages, different defensive concepts, none of that matters if you don't do it well. A switching defense that is run like shit isn't going to get stops.

You know, like if you have really good spacing in terms of where your players are positioned on the floor, but none of them can shoot and dribble, then you don't really have spacing. You know what I mean? So like execution is also a big part of it. But I do think that switching is the best modern defensive concept. And I think it's really interesting and smart that Pat Riley has built the roster in a manner that makes them capable of running that type of defensive scheme. And it's their head coach who's very forward thinking and ahead of the times who's leaning very strongly into that defensive concept.

You know, still to this day, even with as successful switching as Ben, even with what the Houston Rockets in 2018 did to the most talented roster ever in the Golden State Warriors in the conference finals by switching everything, even with all of that, teams are still slow to adopt it. And the main reason why is drop coverage is just easier. It's easier on your bigs. It's easier to use in the regular season. It's an innings eater. It's erring on the side of protecting the paint and giving up, pull-up jump shooting. It's just the easy way out. And kudos to the Miami Heat and to Spolstra at Pat Riley and everybody on that roster for being more willing to do the more difficult job because it translates better to playoff success. And again, this all comes down to why Miami is

so much better at maximizing their talent than the other teams in the league. But again, they're one of the more switch-heavy teams in the league, even in pick and roll. Bay Mettabio, like I mentioned earlier, he's the guy who unlocks all of that. He's not quite as gifted as a rim protector as like an Anthony Davis or as a, you know, Rudy Gobert or Yana Santanacumpo, but he's actually better than all three of those guys switching out onto the perimeter. He's more mobile and just has better instincts on how to move his feet against a perimeter player. That kind of makes him into the ultimate switching forward because he can functionally play rim protector while also playing the role in a five-out switching scheme. He unlocked. He unlocked. He,

everything that they do defensively, and it's why BAMETA bio is as effective a basketball player as he is. The Miami Heat are big on forward aggression, picking up ball handlers sooner than other teams are willing to, at least when they cross half court in many situations in full court scenarios. It seems to me that Spolstra seems to prefer kind of attacking as soon as they cross half court because you can't use retreat dribbles at that point. They had a lot of success against Boston with that. They were seventh in points off of turnovers this year. That tells you all you need to know. They understand that their weaknesses in the half court offensively, and they use that as an opportunity to understand their weakness and push the advantage in transition

as much as possible. We talked about that a lot with Memphis yesterday as well. I'll give you an example. So in that Boston Celtics series, the Miami Heat got utterly obliterated in the half court. They averaged 0.86 points per possession against Boston in the half court. On the other end of the floor, when they were in the half court defensively, Boston was getting 0.97 points per possession in the half court. That's the equivalent to a plus 11 net rating if the game stayed in the half court. That's dominant.

That would in most seasons be the best net rating in all of basketball in the aggregate for the whole season. So with as dominant as Boston was over Miami in the half court, how did that series drag to seven games? How did they have a chance to win it at the end? They did it in transition. They had 58 steals in that series, and they averaged 1.31 points per possession pushing in transition off of steals. So again, like, there are many facets to basketball. and obviously the core facet is half-court shot creation and half-court defense. And it's very important for you to be good in those areas.

But there are all these other ancillary parts of the game of basketball that you need to be great at. Whether that's taking care of the basketball, avoiding turnovers, take a look at the Boston Celtics, whether that's squeezing out fringe possessions, offensive rebounds, pushing in transition, They're reversed to that on defense, securing defensive rebounds, transition defense. Boston was a great half-court defense. They were a horrific transition defense because they would frequently fall down and beg for foul calls on the other end of the floor rather than prioritizing getting back in transition. It's kind of like special teams in football or like manufacturing runs in baseball by stealing bases and sacrifice bunt, sacrifice flies, things along those lines. You know, in the core facets of the game, winning is part of it. a lot of other elements to the game, and the best teams are always the teams that maximize

the fringe elements of the game. In Miami is a team that has always maximized those fringe elements. Last thing I wanted to say about the defensive end of the floor of Miami is the defensive adjustments and the power that Eric Spolster has in a playoff series to win in the chess match. So I'll give you just two examples, and this is a big part of why they have such a high playoff upside. Boston is a weak ball handling team, as we all know. As that series progressed, Eric Spolstra was more intent on pressuring the basketball and gambling more, even if at the risk of getting out of position and giving up baskets

on the other end, I thought it was a really smart adjustment from Eric Spolstra because it actually caused Boston to lose their head for extended stretches in that series. and it's a huge part of why it extended as long as it did. That was an adjustment from Eric Spolstra. Look at the Philadelphia 76ers series. Joel Embed, they didn't have anybody who could really guard him straight up, not even Bametabio. He's too big, right?

But one of the things they were doing that I thought was really, really smart was they were fronting Joel Embed and bringing backside help. And when they did, it made it so that Philly just kind of passed the ball around on the perimeter and didn't know how to get it into MBEed. and that kind of psyched Embeded out. And don't get me wrong, injuries played a role. He ended up getting hurt in that series, or in, it might have been the previous series.

It was, yeah, he got hurt in the previous series against Toronto. But I know his head wasn't 100% in it because of the orbital fracture or whatever. But I also think that Eric Spulster did a really nice job of finding out how to frustrate Joel and Bede through ball denial. And it was a really, really smart scheme he used to do so. Fronting the post is difficult. It's a very physically taxing job. And it also requires really sound rotations on the back end

because you're obviously giving up the over-the-top lob pass. And when you're offering help on the backside, it also opens up the skip pass. But their rotations were so sound around that that it did a pretty damn good job of disrupting Philly's offense. And towards the end of the series, it kind of came down to James Hardin and his ability to create shots, which obviously he wasn't able to do.

credit to Eric Spolstra, that's a huge wild card for them in any playoff series, is that he's usually the smartest guy on the bench, on both benches. And his ability to make those adjustments and make other teams feel uncomfortable is a huge weapon in Miami's toolbox. So moving on to the best case scenario. And before we do that, I kind of want to summarize really quick. This is an excellent defensive team that is built for playoff basketball. they are stout on the perimeter.

You know, Max Drews and Kyle Lowry are strong and can guard up a position, and then BAM has flexibility to switch out of the center position. So as a team, they're constructed for playoff defense, and especially with switching. That's great. Offensively, they maximize their talent with lots of scheme diversity. They run tons of different sets. They are not repetitive. They are not predictable.

They're very good at creating advantages for their guards. who are bad at creating advantages for themselves. But this is a weak ball handling team that struggles to create advantages against defense that can get ahead of their sets, especially when teams don't run drop coverage against them and are willing to switch. It forces them to rely on shot creation

and it's not a strength of theirs. The only superpower they have that can overcome this is Jimmy Butler and his ability to play above and beyond even his own capability in a power. playoff setting. This is why I thought they needed Donovan Mitchell. This is why I thought they should have been more aggressive on that front. But Jimmy Butler, let's say they stay healthy with air exposure and what he does to maximize them on the offensive and defensive end of the floor. If Jimmy Butler can play to the highest end of his capability like he did in that playoff

run, they're capable of beating anybody. All of these weaknesses I've described were true last year too. and they came one shot away from making it to the NBA finals. Now, I think they would have lost, soundly, to Golden State, but make no mistake, like they absolutely have a puncher's chance because of what Jimmy Butler is capable of. He has demonstrated that that will always put them in this mix. If they stay healthy and Jimmy Butler stays healthy and he gets hot,

they can beat anybody, therefore they are a contender. End of story for me. That is their best case scenario. But their worst case scenario, health can rear. It's ugly had again. Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry both broke down towards the end of the season. They were playing, but they were limited. Jimmy was in really rough physical shape in the middle of that Boston Celtic series. And the loss of PJ Tucker makes them really thin in the front court. You're probably going to have to play Jimmy Butler a lot at the four now. I hope that they address that during the season, either in the trade market or in the buy-in market by beefing up that forward position.

Otherwise, they need Nikolovic to be ready, or Jovich, I'm not sure how to pronounce it. they need him to be ready to play, and I'm just not sure that he's going to be. And also, I think he's a little too thin to be able to guard bigger forwards in the league. This team is, with their lack of depth, they are one severe injury away from basically being a first round exit or worse. Like, if Kyle Lowry gets hurt, it greatly limits their perimeter size and switchability. Same goes for Jimmy Butler. Same goes for Bametabile. They're just kind of heavily exposed on that front. I don't think they can weather an injury, that to me has moved them down the list. The biggest X factor on this team is Tyler Harrow.

The Miami Heat desperately need him to take a significant leap as a shot creator. Now, I know when you look at the numbers, and Miami Heat fans are going to want to say this, hey, he averaged 21 points per game last year on 56% true shooting. How is that not a legitimate shot creator? Well, you have to dig deeper into it. The vast majority of Tyler Harrow's offensive success came in spot-up situations. He is amazing attacking closeouts, one of the very best in the league.

Why? Because he's a knock-down three-point shooter, and he's very good at continuing that advantage into the lane because he could shoot a pull-up 15-footer. He could shoot floaters in the lane, and he's athletic enough to get all the way to the rim, right? So in spot-up situations, he's one of the very best in the league. he was in the 93rd percentile for spot-up possessions out of all NBA players. That's excellent. He averaged 1.23 points per spot-up possession.

That's freaking incredible. That's where he's excelled. But he was either average to below-average in everything else, below-average in isolations, you know, average to below-average in dribble handoffs, average to below-average coming off the screens. In any situation where they were actually running plays for him, he wasn't producing at a high level. The vast majority of his offensive creation that was efficient

was coming out of spot-up situations. The scoring production is unassailable, but in order for this team to have a real playoff ceiling that can contend with the Boston's and the Golden States and the clippers and the bucks of the world, they need Tyler Harrow to get to the point where he can create his own shot. They also need him to be able to stay on the floor defensively. He's a little bit more of a defensive liability.

right now than the Miami Heat would like for him to be. So from that standpoint, if this team desperately needs a high-level shot creator and they desperately need a high-level shot creator that can stay on the floor, Tyler Harrow is the answer to that question, but he's only going to be able to stay on the floor if he can defend, and he only can be a high-level shot creator if he learns how to succeed out of one of those situations. Office screens, dribble handoffs, isolations,

he needs to get to the point where he can create his own shot. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. We back tomorrow with number nine. As always, I sincerely appreciate your support, and we'll see you next time. The Volume. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for. banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle. with Greg. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with.

And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHart podcast. Guaranteed human.