The Herd with Colin Cowherd - HOUR 2 - Notre Dame vs. Ohio State, Oregon vs. Georgia

Episode Date: September 2, 2022

Brian Noe, Rich Ohrnberger, and Geoff Schwartz, in for Colin, preview the huge weekend in college football. Pickswise lead betting analyst Jared Smith joins the guys to break down the line movement for Ohio State vs. Georgia and explain why one Big Ten contender should be on upset alert this Saturday. Plus, the guys give their thoughts on the Pittsburgh Steelers QB situation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Find your local station for the herd at Fox Sports Radio.com or stream us live every day on the iHeartRadio app by searching Hurd. You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Sports Radio. Oh, what's going on? Brian, though, alongside Jeff Schwartz, Rich Ornberger in for the herd today. And I'll tell you what,

you might want to go immediately to at Jeff Schwartz on Twitter and check out this outfit that he is rocking. He's got the Oregon hat. He's got the Oregon shirt. I'm surprised without throwing up the Oregon O while taking a selfie. They're in Atlanta getting ready for Oregon, Georgia tomorrow. You're rocking it today.

Jeff, I love it. It was easiest trip to ever path for. What I did, I went through my closet. It said, does it have it green? Does it have an organ O on it? Good, done, done. So I had five Oregon shirts, two pairs of shorts that are green, one black one just in case a spill on something I need to change it. And like, we're rocking and rolling tomorrow.

I don't, I don't like going to games as much anymore. You know, I've done that my whole life. But Oregon never comes out east. my kids cannot wait to go. That's my daughter's first game. My son's second Oregon game. I have some friends are going to be here. It's just it was easy drive from Charlotte.

And it made sense. Oregon gave me some tickets. Like we're in a good spot in the stadium. And I'm just going to have fun tomorrow. Take it all in and hope that we keep this close for a little bit of time. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, when I saw that picture, I'm like, that's one handsome duck.

I'm very good looking. By the way, Rich, what are you rocking today? I've got the Los Poyos Hermanos breaking bad t-shirt on right now. What are you wearing? Yeah, old Gus ran that place, huh? Yeah. Yeah, that's right. I am wearing a black v-neck t-shirt because it hides my Zoftigmig section.

And, you know, I'm very jealous, actually, of Jeff's big duck energy. It's just, it's a thing. People are very jealous about that. He's absolutely rocking. They're very jealous. So, yeah, we, look, here's the thing about college football. Like, we saw last night, right?

Like, it's so different than the NFL. And I've contended for one other. Almost two different sports, right? Like, the intensity of a rivalry game, the backyard brawl on Thursday night, I mean, that stadium was rocking last night. Obviously, the way it ended with the pick six through the hands of the West Virginia.

Oh, true. And then obviously the fourth and 15. That ball, I think it was a correct call, but wasn't a catch. And just a passion that game, obviously, you know, the atmosphere in Purdue last night. There were other games that weren't as, you know, as big. They were on television as well. Like, there's just this passion with college sports and this excitement that you don't get in the NFL. That's fine.

Again, they're kind of two different sports. But I just love and I also love how weird college football is. Like, again, there was, it was it was, I don't want to credit the wrong team, but it was Alabama A&M last night. It's fourth and 19. South Carolina State, I think. Oh, that's it. Yeah, it was the UCF game.

That's right. The punter, I think it was a fake, but maybe it wasn't a fake. He runs 14 of 19 yards and then kicks the ball. Yes. Yes. That's where I need miced up footage with the conversation right after that. Because it wasn't just the head coach. It was like two other assistants like, son, what are you doing right now, man?

So, okay, I think it was a fake because there were players blocking. Hang on, I got, I'm pulling up, and I'm pulling the play up on Twitter. I think it was a fake, because there were players blocking, and one of the up guys, like, I don't know what you call, I hate to spread a punt, by the way. Yeah. One of the, the offensive line that was, like, was running ahead trying to block for him. But it was fourth of 19, the first quarter of a game, like, what are we doing? And then the kicker, he kicked the ball. It was, it's so college football.

I love it. It's the best. That was in the pit game also, where they had a punt blocked similarly, where the punter just kind of meanders around. What was the guy doing? He just took forever to punt. No, you're right. It's unpolished. It's like punk rock.

It's like watching a garage band graduate to the bigs. Oh, we're doing the punk rock thing again in the show. Is that? I actually didn't know that that was a term. No, Brian and I talk about this all time. I am not at all. I'm big into metal over here, Rich. Punk, I'm cool with.

I'm big into metal. Me too. Me too. Nice. So, like, listen. And one of the things, I have a younger brother. named Nick, and he's a talented musician. And so I spent some of my formative years following his bands.

He had one called valet parking, one called the B-list, from bar to bar to bar to club to club, watching him try to break big. And there's something special about that, like the chase, right? It's not real yet, but it's real to them. And that's college football. That is college football. We're watching the best part of your life played out in front of all of our lives in national audiences. It's cool, man.

And it harkens the reason why these stadiums are filled everywhere, obviously, the allegiance to the alma maters and things like that. But there's also this feeling of like reconnecting with your youth when you had something cool that you were passionate about. You get to see those mistakes played out. Sometimes you punt the ball 14 yards downfield. By the way, I love it. It's a great description of college football. And I want to remind everybody real fast that we're excited to announce two brand new football pregame shows on Fox Sports Radio. So the college version, it begins tomorrow.

So catch us right here. Countdown to kickoff presented by BetMGM. It'll be on Fox Sports Radio. It'll be with me. Penn State All-American Rich Orneberger, picks wise lead betting analyst, Jared Smith, three hours before kickoff. So 9 a.m. to noon Eastern time.

We might throw in some Slayer and Pantera, right? And just get crazy with some metal level. Cowboys from hell. Why not? There you go. Sounds good to me. And then starting on Sunday the 11th, For week one, we launch our pro football countdown to kickoff show presented by BetMGM.

So again, three hours before kickoff, 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. on the East Coast, 7 to 10 a.m. Pacific time. It's with yours truly eight-year NFL veteran Jeff Schwartz. The only downside with Jeff, he's not a metal guy. Not a metal guy. We also have professional sports better Bill Krakenberger. Maybe he is a metal guy. But listen right here to Fox Sports Radio, Saturdays and Sundays, leading up to kickoff presented by BetMGM. So if we dive into a couple of the games tomorrow, I think Notre Dame, now again, I'm from South Bend, but I think Notre Dame being a 17-point underdog is disrespectful.

What do you guys think about this line? I know you've been doing a little bit more diving into this one, Jeff. Yeah, I was really going to be heavy on Ohio State. So I have a bazillion of jobs, including this one I'm doing now, the one I'm going to do Sundays, starting in September. But, you know, I write for Fox Sports. I cover gambling. And, you know, it was one of the games that we looked at this week to write about it. You know, the more I kind of looked, I thought right away Ohio State, like just they're going to score 55 points and Notre Dame's going to struggle.

But I kind of thought more about this game. I did a little research on the rosters. And Ohio State's offense is going to be fabulous. We know that, right? But Notre Dame defense is going to be really good. I think offensively, Notre Dame returns a lot of pieces that make them better. The offensive line last year was young and beat up. This year, it's young and healthy, right?

Young, not as young, but young still, but healthy. You know, the coordinator's back. I just feel like 17 points is too much rich. I would not be surprised if it was like 35, 24. I don't think I'm going to win this game. But I do think they cover, and it's probably not a difficult cover for Notre Dame. You know what? I completely agree with you.

Because who's your head coach, if you're on the Fighting Irish, it's Marcus Freeman. who was he last year, your defensive coordinator under Kelly. He jumps ship and he goes down to the bayou. And what are you going to try to do in your first national game? Prove why you got the gig. So that defense is going to be wired tight. And it's a great opportunity because the same we were talking about Purdue, they had the gumption and the know-how and the whole offseason

to prepare for a rival in their conference in Penn State. Same with Notre Dame. They knew who were on their slate. They knew who's up first. They've seen the film. The same guys at the top of that program, they know exactly what's coming. So if there's any statement game that Marcus Freeman needs to make, it's the opener. Keep it close with the Buckeyes and prove your worth as a head coach in this college football world.

Yeah, I think the offensive line is a big deal for Notre Dame, like you pointed out, Jeff, where you just run the ball effectively. Pound the Rock. Keep C.J. Strouding that offense on the sideline. And then if you look at Ohio State's defense, where are they? Because last season, they were not very good at all. I can't believe this, that. Allowed a touchdown on nearly 74% of their opponent's red zone drives. It'd be better this year.

They changed defense coordinators to Jim Doles this year, who has been successful. I forget his previous spot. I could pull up my article. He's been good where he's been. So I do think they'll have a better idea of what they're going to be. We saw Oregon go in there last year. and just run the ball because they knew where they were manned coverage and they figured it out. And that was they scored four Red Zone touchdowns.

It might even been five Reds on touchdowns. Like it is, so I think it would be better on defense. But I got a question about Marcus Freeman. I don't doubt that he will be a good coach. He's recruited great. He's got that energy. We know he did it on defense. But when I hear about Dan Lany in Oregon, oh, he's young.

And I don't know if he can be the guy. I don't know. Why with Marcus Freeman, are we not hearing the ideas? It's his first game. It's a big game. We don't know what he's going to do on his first. I know he coached a bowl game wasn't quite his team yet. This is his team now.

It's his identity. Why is there not a little bit of angst about his first game going on the road to the Buckeyes and how tough that might be? You know what? I think it's narrative driven. And you're really smart to point that out because how did it happen for Lannning? He accepted a promotion and he left the program he was at. how did it happen after winning a national championship on a record-setting defense that he coached? Correct, correct. But he left the program. And so like now all of a sudden the pressure's hot. The focus is on him. The spotlights are on him because he said, no, I'm good to go. I'm going to leave. This sort of felt like incumbency. Like Marcus Freeman was left behind by Kelly. And there were no better options. It's sort of like the chairs were getting filled with the musical chairs game in college football coaching carousel. And all of a sudden, he landed the gig.

And so I think there's more latitude be given to Freeman than Lannning. And it's just for that reason. It's all narrative-based. I'm not saying you're wrong. I agree with you. I think it is really nerve-wracking if you're the guy now and your openers on the road at the shoe. Are you kidding me? I'd rather be playing central Michigan.

I'd rather be playing, you know, the Zips. Yeah. Purdue. Yeah, Purdue, right. But here you go. Off to the race. It's like, you know, they slapped his butt and said, hey, go get us a debt. I'll be a kid. It's like, that's, that's tough. And I agree too. It's a great point by you comparing

Marcus Freeman to Dan Lannning. I think some of it has to do with Georgia winning it all. That's a big deal. But you look at Georgia's defense. It was unbelievable last season. And they had five first round draft picks. Right. I mean, there are eight guys you got to replace defensively and they got guys. Trust me, with Jalen Carter and company. But it's a different deal. And if anybody would know where to attack that defense, It's got to be Dan Lannning. Yes, and that's why I feel comfortable that we'll keep the game closed for a little bit of time. Yes, Jordan's defense.

Jalen Carter might be the best defense line they had last season. That includes two first round picks, you know, three first round picks on the defensive line. Because Quay Walker end up going to the Packers, right? And then we end up having this year, right? We have Jalen Carter, we have Nolan Smith, and we have Kaylee Ringo, the three guys in the first round right now for Georgia. but Oregon also has multiple players that will be first round picks off the defense and then they're coached now by Dan Laney

who engineered the defense last year. To me the game comes down to one player. And one player is Bo Nix, who is the Auburn transfer quarterback now at Oregon. And I have a hard time with the concept of players changing who they are after three or four years. And this happens, same thing with the NFL as well.

I was wrong about Josh Allen. but most of the time, like after two years, three, you sort of know who they're going to be. And there's rare instances, Josh Allen's one of them, where they turn to something else. We've seen what Bo Nix is, right? Electric sometimes, but turnover prone, mistake prone. I was watching the Oregon Spring game, and I tweet this out.

I tweet out, wow, Bo Nix is doing a really good job. Immediately interception in the double coverage, bad throw. Like, that is the thing with Bo Nix. So that's been his career. And it's hard for me to believe, he will be something different in Oregon. And I've heard, you know, the optimism, well, he needed a fresh start. He needed Kenny Dillingham, who's the O.C.

Like, he needed all these things. And I agree. Fresh start is great. But it's hard for me to believe he'll be something different. And I'm not sure that Bo Nix himself can help us win this game. We can run the ball, I think. We have all starting off its lines back. We're great at running back or great at wide receiver.

It's how do we mitigate Bo Nix and his mistake. nature at times. If we can do that, this game will be close for a while. If we can't, if he makes too many mistakes, you know, George is going to run away with this thing. You know what? And this isn't because I'm sitting here talking to this giant duck over here. I really, this game has shades of visiting the horseshoe last year.

It just feels like this could be a statement win for Oregon. And this is how they sort of launched themselves into the ire and the eye of of the national media. Man, who are you trying to cozy up to? Is it more Jeff Schwartz or is it cowherd with your Viking stance? No, listen to me. If we win this game tomorrow. Listen to me.

I don't drink adult beverages, but I might start tomorrow if we win this game. I'm going to be like, it's going to be, I remember last year I had to, I had to. I liked doing radio, but I came on with Steve Hartman at my normal slot at 4 o'clock on Saturday. It's like one minute after Oregon beat Ohio State. I couldn't even breathe. I was like so because we've been so close to these games, right? And as someone who obviously loves our football out west, these games are important to win for narrative and just for program building.

And if we win this game, oh, God. Well, let me give you, I know. And this is where I think it's possible. Look, you know, Lannin knows the Bulldogs. Like, you know, and so this is very different than talking about. about Freeman visiting the shoe this year with Notre Dame, it's one of those things where when you know a team's weaknesses, you know your own, you're going to obviously forecast hiding your own and exemplifying theirs. And so to your point, if they can slow this game down,

control it, if they can find a way to keep this a game into the second half, anything can happen. And confidence tilts, especially in an opener. You know, anything can happen when you don't know what you're about to get after kickoff. And especially coming out the tunnel. We'll see how good of a second half adjuster landing is early in this year, especially if he's within a touchdown going in there at Georgia with any sort of like reachable. I'm not going to say they're going to be leading a half time. I'm not going to predict anything in terms of that.

But I'm saying, is this a winnable game? Could this be a statement game? I'm saying, yeah, it could be. I love, the most important part, by the way, is our uniforms are fly for this. We look, we're going to look really good. We're going to look great. By the way, Jared Smith from Picks-Wise, he's their lead betting analyst. He joins us right around the corner, previewing all the, well, not all of them, but the biggest college games, maybe earn you some money along the way.

That's on the way. I'm Brian Noe alongside Rich Ornberger, Jeff Schwartz. We're in for The Herd today on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions. of the herd weekdays in noon eastern 9 a.m. Pacific on Fox Sports Radio, FS1, and the IHeart Radio app. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full

year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping and muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for,

for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clivert Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your

podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at a podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here. unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s.

To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

People. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing

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Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Brian, though, alongside Jeff Schwartz and Rich Ornberger, in for the herd today on Fox Sports Radio. Jared Smith's going to be with us on our brand new college football pregame show. Starts tomorrow. Countdown to Kickoff presented by BetMGM. It's with me, former Penn State All-A. American Rich Ornberger and Jared Smith, who you're going to hear from right now. We're going to have a fiesta.

It's going to be a party everywhere, tailgate style leading up to kickoff from 9 till noon Eastern time. Jared, what's going on, buddy? First off, very key question. I found out that Rich Ornberger is a heavy metal guy. Are you a metal guy, Jared? Oh, well, first of all, thank you for that introduction. I'm so excited for the next few months of our lives, especially on Saturday morning. It is going to be a party.

I'm not. I'm a little bit more of a laid-back music guy, so I do a lot of my studying, a lot of my research for the shows and the picks while listening to classical music or jazz music. That may or may not surprise you, but those are the two things that are usually on in the background of my day-to-day life.

Hey, man, whatever floats your boat, so listening to jazz and classical... This guy's an aristocrat. That's right. We got a little taste of high society. Yeah. He's pre-gall. That's a good word.

Yeah. Sipping lattes or whatever. I don't know whatever process you have going on over there, Jared. But while you're doing that and putting in all this research, what college game in week one do you feel strongest about at this point? Oh, man. Well, first of all, I don't know if Rich is happy about last night's game with Penn State. I think there were issues that we had there,

but uncovered them a little bit late with a great drive. So Penn State gets off to a good start. We didn't hit our bed on Purdue Plus 3 and a half. But again, head your happiness. Pence State gets a win. They're 1 and 0. We're happy there. I think Alabama, it's safe to say they're going to start 1 and 0.

But the real question is, are they going to cover this massive number, which was a five touchdown spread? Now it's up to 6 touchdowns. History says they won't, guys, because in the last 10 seasons, when the spread's 35 or more, they're only hitting it at 33 and a half percent. So I think it's going to be tough for them to cover 42. But the one bet that I would make in this game, and I already have gotten to the window, on the first half spread for Alabama, which is 27 and a half,

they're 21 and 7 against the number in the first half over the last two years. And I think that makes sense. Nick David starts out strong. I love Jemir Gibbs. Obviously, we love Bryce Young and all the weapons that they have. The defense is going to be stacked. But then things calm down late. The backup come in.

The third stringers come in. And then the teams cover those huge spreads. But in the first half, I feel good about Bama getting off to a really fast start against Utah State. Now, Jared, everybody's going to be leaning. on your advice, six to nine Pacific Coast time, nine to noon on the East Coast, ahead of the big noon kickoff on Fox. But, I mean, for those who like to process things themselves, week one, tricky because a lot of new faces on rosters, take us through your process when there's the unknown looming in the near distance. Fascinating week one

difficulties, I think, when you look at what teams are expected to be, and then you actually peel back the curtain. And the one trend that I think gets talked about a lot, listen, you guys do radio for a living, we do media for a living, we have to fill the airways or something, but sometimes the data doesn't always back up what we're talking about. In this particular case, and I've said it before too, I've fallen into this trap because in your mind it makes sense, a team playing their first game, you would think would be a step slower than a team that already has a game under their belt. That's exactly what we have with Utah State, Alabama. We have that with UNCF State on Saturday as well. So there's a lot of opportunities, I think,

to kind of disprove that trend because the data says the team actually playing their first game covers more often than not against the team that already has a game under their belt. So that's just something to keep in mind because, again, we hear these things on TV and radio and we're like, oh, yeah, that makes sense. But then you actually look at the data and you say, oh, wow, well, 57% of the time, the team playing their first game actually covers against the team that's already had that game under their belt. So those are just little narrative things to kind of keep it. And again, we're going to beat these to a dead horse, I'm sure, on the show this Saturday,

because they are just fascinating to study. And I think when you look at some of these teams that you expect to start hot, Michigan's another one, four touchdowns spread against Colorado State. They've got a quarterback controversy that they're dealing with as well. Another interesting one tonight, Illinois at Indiana. Again, that's another one of those. We saw Illinois last week against Wyoming. They were okay.

Indiana, no idea what we're going to see. New offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, who's playing quarterback, Conor Baselac, comes in for Missouri. So you get these interesting angles week one, because you do have some week zero games to kind of sit through. But I'm fascinated to see what happens when we feel back the curtain on Saturday. Whenever I share a wager on the Internet, and we know that Twitter is a great place for discussion,

you know, I get that, oh, that's a public play. That's a lot of money on that one on the public side. How do you look at public versus sharp sort of plays, right? For example, I like Utah this weekend. I like them when the line dropped four months ago. Yeah, a lot of people like Utah. The lines changed. I still like them under a field goal.

So how do you assess that when you look at your wagers? I love Utah, too, by the way. There's so many good things to like about this Utah team. I'm feeling we're going to be talking about them a lot on Saturdays and their schedule shakes up nicely if they can get through the swamp. But the sharp public narrative is another one of those things that we hear talked about a lot because gambling is starting to become an important part of what we see on TV and hear on the radio every day. The one thing that the public needs to know, you don't move the line. I don't care if 100% of the handle is on one side of a bet.

If one really sharp, respected gambler walks into one of the books that moves the market, and there's a few shops in town that move the market. and there's a few shops in town that move the market. I don't care if it's a $100 bet. If that really sharp respected gambler puts a wager on the other side of where all the public is on, the line's going to move in that direction. So one of the key indicators to me when I see 90% of the handle on one side, but the market moving in the other direction. That's when I start to raise my red flag and say,

okay, something's going on with this game because everybody likes one side, but the smartest gamblers in town are betting the other side, and that's the way the market's moving. So the percentages don't always matter, and a lot of times they're inflated because you don't really know where the bets are coming from. But the one thing that always matters,

where did the line open, where is it moving, and where is it going to close? That's how you can kind of determine where the smart money is coming in on. I'm curious, Jared, because the two biggest games in terms of anticipation this week, Ohio State hosting Notre Dame, and you've got the Georgia-Oregon game.

And you know as well as I do, Some bettors are like, I'm going to watch the game. I just want to have some action on the game. What would you say to those betters if you don't have a great angle on the game that just want to play it anyway? So the one thing that I've been really impressed with over the last few years, now that, again, gambling has become a lot more mainstream. Player props for college football have become very interesting.

Because unlike the NFL that gives data to these sports books, I mean, you think we consume a lot of data in our day-to-day life on social media and on these websites. The amount of data that the sports books purchase, basically, or in partnership with, with the NFL, helps them set the line. In college football, there's not as much data to go around. But sports books want to give more offerings. They want to give more menu items. They want to get people to the window. So they are starting to take it upon themselves to create betting lines for player prompts.

I'm starting to see a lot more random games. It used to be you could only bet player props in college football games, bowl games or the big big games, Michigan, Ohio State, et cetera. Now I'm seeing it, for example, last night they were hanging player props for West Virginia, Pittsburgh. And again, you see a lot of discrepancies in the market because if you're basically manually creating these lines, there's going to be errors because we're human beings. You make errors. And that's where you can take advantage.

And you could really isolate one player that you really like, say, C.J. Stroud. And you're like, hey, I'm going to bet his over player, you know, passage. yards prop. You don't have to worry about if Ohio State gets the backdoor cover laid, if Notre Dame scores to cover the spread. All you have to worry about is C.J. Stroud going over whatever number you get posted. So I think that's a fun way for a novice better to get

involved in the markets without having to worry about who's going to cover the spread. You know, you just look at one guy, one player, one number, and you try to beat it. I'm rarely the smartest man in the room. But I love to feel like I am. And for whatever reason, upset picks, when you walk in after

a success, it makes me feel that way. So do you got any favorites for week one on the upset side? I got one that's a little off the beaten path, guys. And, you know, there's going to be a lot of times on the show this year where I'm going to make a pick and I'm going to feel really confident about it and sound like I'm the smartest guy in the room. And then the game's going to happen, and you're going to be like, yeah, Jared's an idiot. That was really even close.

Probably going to happen more often than not. But that being said, I've got one that's kind of out there for Saturday. and it's South Dakota State over Iowa. The Jackrabbit, let's go. I love this Jackrabbit team. So first of all, and I know Richard Jeff can speak to this, Iowa plays Iowa State next week. And if you're telling me that there's nobody in that Iowa locker room

that's thinking about the Sihawk trophy this week, even though, you know, Kirk Farrant's a tremendous coach, I'm sure he'll have his boys ready to go, there is going to be some buzz about that Sihawk trophy. and South Dakota State is not your average FCS team. For example, you saw Ball State, who's by the way, an FBS team go to Tennessee the other night, and they were 35 and a half point underdose. Well, South Dakota State is only catching like two touchdowns, maybe 15 or 16 points.

So the market's telling you right there that there is something to be said about South Dakota State and how talented they are. I think their front seven is legit. and Iowa, so they lost Linderbaum, the center of the draft, they lost Goodson. Usually when you think of Iowa, pound the rock right down your throat, we're just going to ground it out for 60 minutes. I don't know if they're going to be able to do that against South Dakota State. It's very good up front. And again, Iowa's a little bit young and inexperienced along their offensive line, just one senior and four sophomore. So I think the game plan that Kirk Farrant wants to employ with Spencer Petrus, a quarterback, play action, run the ball.

I don't know if they're going to have success and just be able to bully. South Dakota State. That means they're going to have to get creative. And South Dakota State's offense fantastic. Mark Grinowski's back from injury. Remember, they played the spring and the fall. So there's been a lot of tread on the tires, but he missed all of last year after leading South Dakota State to the FCS title game in the spring of 2021. They've also got an Oklahoma State transfer in the slot, Landon Wolf, who I think is going to create some problems for Iowa's defense. And when is the luck box going to run out for this Iowa defense? 89 interceptions in the last five years, that's not sustainable. So if we get,

aggression with turnovers and Iowa. Iowa can't run the ball effectively against South Dakota State. I think the Jacks might be in that game on Saturday. Noon start. It's going to be 11 a.m. local time in Iowa City. Don't be surprised to Jacks, keep that one close. I'm not sure I'm allowed to disparage USC on this fine program, but are there teams that you're looking to fade early on? One of them for me is USC early on at least.

I mean, they might prove me wrong at some point, but to me, you have like 50 new guys on that team. I'm not sure I'm fading them against. Rice this weekend. But are there teams that you have an eye on? I kind of just, the number is going to be inflated early on, which it will be with USC, and I'm just going to stay away, or I'm just going to auto-fade them? I'll be honest.

I kind of thought that was Penn State last night, guys. I didn't fully trust Manny Diaz to have things figured out. I think if you look at some of the advanced metrics of that game, Purdue's success rate offensively was over 50% in quarters, one, two, and three. and then in the fourth quarter, they just, I don't know what Jeff Pomm was thinking in the fourth quarter that game, but things just went off the rails. But I think there are some interesting spots. And you mentioned it. It's where there's coordinators that are changing and where there's flux.

Because unlike the NFL, there's not as much prep time that these guys get in the spring and summer months. So I think it takes longer for schemes to kind of settle in. And USC is literally ripping it up from the studs and starting fresh. So I could see there being some difficult times there. The easy spot for them is they play in the PAC 12, which arguably is the worst conference in the FACS in the Power 5. So, you know, that helps. And then they get Risen and Stanford and Fresno State who looked okay against Cal Poly last night. And then they go to Oregon State.

It's really going to be that game at Utah later in the year where you're going to know just how good USC is. I think Utah is really good, as we've discussed. So USC gets the benefit of having a soft start. maybe they'll have a softer landing early. But yeah, I can see a lot of teams that are going through coordinator changes, head coaching changes, having some struggles to start the season. Hey, follow him on Twitter at Jared Lee Smith. We'll have some jazz and classical ready for you tomorrow morning there, Jared.

I certainly hope so. That would get me very relaxed for our show. But it won't really fit the party vibe. We'll get the rock and roll going. There you go. It's heavy metal for Rich when we get started. But maybe pre-show will relax with a, a cup of Earl Grey and some jazz music.

Very nice, man. Well, looking forward to it, bud. Thanks for joining us today, Jared. You got it, guys. There you go. Jared Smith, betting analyst co-host of Fox Sports Radio's countdown to kickoff, presented by BetMGM. Starts tomorrow 9 a.m. until noon eastern,

right up until kickoff. Let's get Ryan Music in here with the news. No, no, no, no. Turn on the news. This is the herd line news. You guys were covering. plenty of college football there. Well, let's keep it in the college football theme. The number one team in the country, Alabama, kicks off their season tomorrow against Utah State.

And while the new season's just about to get underway for Nick Sabin, he's already in midseason form. And you know what? I'm here for it. We should all be here for it. Let's hear a bit from the seven-time national champion on a local radio show called Hey Coach. What I read these guys write all the time, all right, about, all right, who can, how can Alabama run the table? I mean, well, can't you figure out something better to do than that? I mean, come on. We've got to play one game at a time. All right.

So how can Alabama lose to this team? How can this team beat Alabama? Three months from now. Who gives a... I mean, how about this game? How about the church of what's happening now? All right, like now. Can we focus on what's happening now?

How come no one's interested in that? Why do we have to go all the way anyway? All right. He also in this segment, yeah, he went on to say, I think the rat poison this year is worse than ever. So referencing the fact that he's tired of getting all these questions about future opponents, not the ones that they're currently facing. So apparently rat poison's more potent today versus a few years ago.

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. I mean, come on. What are we doing? I mean, you're Nick Sabin. What do you have to complain about? Get on your boat and your jet skis on your lake and go have a good time in the off season a little bit, huh? I'm just, I feel so bad for him because they were rebuilding last year. That's right.

It really hurt him. Took a step back, Jeff. I want safe into transition from being a coach to the media when it's all said and done. And to see if all of these tactics that he thinks would serve him well as a coach would work as a media member. Because they won't. They will not work. We'll wrap it up here with a note from the end. NBA was the trade we all expected, but not from the team we expected.

Three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell has been traded from the Jazz to the Cavaliers for three players, three unprotected first-round picks and two-pick swaps. As we followed the rumors and reports about Mitchell's departure from the Jazz for months, if not years, in some cases, many teams were expected to be in the mix like the Knicks or the Heat, but they came up short because the Cavaliers who were ready to be real players in the Eastern Conference after last year's surprising success. ESPN's Adrian Wojnerowski did point out that the Knicks made Utah an offer including multiple first-round picks

RJ Barrett, O.B. Topin, Mitchell Robinson, but Utah turned them down. It's a mixed bag for me. I like it and I don't like it at the same time. On the one hand, I like it because you've got three young all-stars, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jared Allen. But on the other hand, you've got two six-one guys in your back court, right, with Donovan Mitchell and Dary of Scarland. We've seen this before. We saw it with Donovan Mitchell and Conley, Mike Conley over there in Utah. You saw it with Portland

with Damon C.J. So I don't love it from that standpoint. And we don't know if Donovan Mitchell is going to resign. So that's an all-in move for maybe only three years. Thematically, is the place I'm most interested in this. Look, the LeBron Cleveland Cavalier's divorce was a messy one when he left for South Beach. He was chasing, you know, a cute girl down there at the beach. And then he came back. They got together for the kids, won a championship together, but dad is out in L.A. and he signed a contract with the Lakers, and mom's moved on with Donovan Mitchell.

So I think this puts to bed the LeBron and the Cavs courtship. Like, that to me is the most important aspect of what just has happened, is the amount of capital moved, and the fact that LeBron's finishing his career in L.A. says to me that the chase is off. The calves are done with the king, and he's done all. all he could for that city. Poor Knicks fans, right? It reminds me of the scene from the movie The Hangover, where it's the swap in the desert.

And the one guy says, just do something. I think that's what Knicks fans feel. Like, just do something. Hopefully it would work, but just do something already. On Twitter, Jeff, I don't know if you saw it, but as soon as this deal goes down, there's this website that tweets out an image of a Knicks fan,

full Nix regalia, just slamming a bat into a photocopier in a rage room. It was awesome. Not surprising. Yeah, not surprising. Yeah, look, that, you know, that trade coming kind of feels out of nowhere. And I just, you know, my mind will move to basketball in like a couple of months. There you go.

I'm so overwhelmed with football right now that I'll worry about how the Cleveland Cavaliers will be in a couple of months. We'll get it right back there to you, Jeff, coming up next. If it's this close, I say go with the kid. We'll see what the guys say. though, he's Jeff Schwartz and Rich Orrinberger. We're in for the herd today on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions of the herd

weekdays in noon Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific. Hey, it's Ben. Host of the 5th Hour with Ben Mallor. It would mean a lot to have you join us on our weekly auditory journey. You're asking what in God's name is the 5th hour? I'll tell you, it's a spinoff of the Ben Mallor show, a cult hit overnights

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Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement

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mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.

Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking.

What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s.

To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done

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Rich Ornberger here on Fox Sports Radio. Man, so Mike Tomlin, Steelers head coach. Playing it close to the vest. Not letting us know who the starting quarterback's going to become week one. Is it going to be Mitch Trubisky? Is it going to be Kenny Pickett? I look at it this way, guys.

If it's a photo finish, I say start with the kid. He's shown that he's got a grasp of the playbook. He's got enough of the feel, look good in the preseason. If it's that close, why ease him in? Just toss them in there. I think Trevor Lawrence is further along this year with the Jags because he learned on the job. last year. I think Trey Lance is

further behind because he didn't get those in-game reps. Even Davis Mills of the Houston Texans looked way better in the preseason game against the Niners. That shouldn't be happening. I go with, I say the kid. What do you guys say in Steelerville? So here's my

reason why you start Trubisky right now. Also, one thing too that is part of this discussion is expectation. Are you trying to be a playoff team? Are you kind of looking at this as like getting ready for next season, right? So if you start Tribisky, you can always go to Pickett and say, hey, you know, Oh, Trubisky's played bad for a month.

Here's our savior in Pickett. We'll ride the ups and downs with Pickett this year. And that's it, right? Like he'll play 12, 13 games. We're good to go. If you start Pickett week one and he struggles and you're in kind of this like win now mode, then you're tempted to go to Tribisky. And that's where things go haywire, right?

Because then you tell everyone I've lost confidence. my young player, no matter how you square it, you've lost confidence in him, right? And an older team, and they're not technically an older team on offense, but their older team on defense. You know, they're going to want the veteran, I think, early on to play, especially because they believe, obviously, that they're going to be a good team this season.

Everyone does this time of year. So to me, Rich, you put a young guy early on, and you go to pick it at any time you want, and he becomes your guy at some point this season. Yeah, the way I'll put it is, my dad had an old expression, too much birthday cake. And it was always when... Your dad is wrong.

Yeah, everybody loves birthday cake, right? But think about, do you want to be the guy at the bar when the lights come on? You know, do you want to be the lampshade guy? Or do you want to, you know, be the one who's fresh, ready for work the next day? Like, there's a point when the party has to stop. And I think it's been nothing but ovation for Kenny Pickett since he's walked through the doors, literally the next door neighbors of Pitt, their facilities share a wall. So he walked out one door into the next, into the Steelers' locker room.

And everybody's just been throwing flowers at his feet. I think if he goes out and has some early struggles and that confidence starts to wane, all of a sudden it's too much birthday cake. Like, you know, it's just too much too soon. You brought in Trubisky for a reason. You're paying him for a reason. So let him hammer out your first four games, your first six games. If it's going really bad, you got Kenny Pickett to turn two.

And he has more time to see how it all works. It's not his fault he's a rookie. He's never done it before. But Trubisky's been through some wars. So I agree. Get Mitch out there. Let him get this thing started. And then let's see if Pickett can spin it later on.

I just think it's interesting. If you compare the Steelers situation to the Niners situation, right? Like you've got, Trey Lance is going to be the week one starter. He's not better than Jimmy Garoppolo right now. They're in win now mode. They were just in the NFC championship game. And they're playing the kid. And if you look at the Steelers, they're not in win now mode.

Whatever anybody tells you, it's a loaded AFC. They're not going to even challenge for a playoff spot. I can't imagine with either guy behind center. So I think it makes even more sense to go with the kid if that's the case. The big difference here is that Niners use so many assets to get traded up for Tray Lance. And, like, they're in a much different win now mode than the Steelers are with their team, right? And we can come back in a second and talk about Jimmy Groppo.

I think the Niders have done this completely wrong. Yep. I don't have enough time to get into this at this current moment. So maybe we come back with this, Brian, in a few minutes. But, like, there's no situation I can recall in a while quite like what the Nyers are trying to do this season. No, I hear you, man. We'll get into that next.

If this is a win-win situation, why are there so many negatives involved. That's on the way. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smygle and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week

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or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On The Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English.

Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.