The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Middlekauff – 3 and Out - Over for McCarthy despite MNF win, Brady/Mahomes SNF shootout takeaways, Chargers underrated contenders; CFB Playoff picture

Episode Date: October 16, 2018

Subscribe here to the 3 and Out with John Middlekauff Podcast https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff/id1352730623?mt=2. 3 and Out with John Middlekauff is part of the Colin Cowherd Podcast Network. 3 and Out is an unfiltered podcast covering the biggest stories in the NFL and college football. John brings his unique perspective as a former NFL scout, NFL analyst and radio host. In this episode, John explains why it's over for Mike McCarthy in Green Bay despite the Packers MNF win, and why the Chargers are an under the radar title contender. He also gives his takeaways from Brady and Mahomes SNF shootout, looks at the College Football Playoff picture, and answers listener questions from the Middlekauff Mailbag. Follow John on Twitter @JohnMiddlekauff and go to theherdnow.com to find the latest content. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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We've started doing this, I think the last basically month, we're having two podcasts a week, one on Tuesday, one on Friday, Middlecough mailbag, which I do at the end of the podcast. If you want to ask a question, slide into my Instagram DMs. Slide on in. Just slide right in. They're wide open. At John Middlecoff. I got like 30 questions.

I'm a little behind. I'll bang out a bunch this week. I try to bang out some too just on Instagram. And I will get to those Middlecophe bail bag I do on every show. Today I'm going to talk and just watch Monday Night Football. We've had incredible, I mean, back to back. Sunday night game was awesome. I mean, a higher level game because we got two good teams.

And then tonight, I mean, I got to talk about Rogers, talk about Kyle. And then we'll get into that Sunday night game. Also talk a little bit about one team, I think, that's almost flying under the radar that's four and two in the NFL. And then dive into a little college because I think we got a pretty good idea of the five, six, at most seven teams. You know, we're going to see for those four playoff spots. But let's start with tonight, Monday night football, Packers, Niners. Listen, I'm born and raised in Northern California. Some of the best games of my life,

Farve, Young, Caperdick, Rogers. They've played some very, very entertaining games over the years. Ironically, McCarthy was with the 49ers when they hired them. Remember, statistically, the Niners' offense was terrible. They still hired them. Has obviously gone on there to have an excellent career. Before we dive into Rogers, it crossed my mind the night when the Niners were up a touchdown late in this game.

I don't think they would fire them because they're very much like the Pittsburgh Steelers. But we talked about this last week, when you know, you know. And I've always believed this. And I saw it firsthand when I was in the NFL. Winning can band-aid your problems because it's unlike, like in business, if you're making money, you can still have problems, but the ultimate goal of the business is to make money. Now, you can still see big picture like newspapers,

10 years ago. Smart people could see they were, even though they were making money, was headed in the wrong direction. Magazine, same thing. Like Rolling Stone, Sports Illustrated, some of these magazines, the game just changed, right? The way advertising, the way sales, people 10 years ago knew they were headed in the wrong direction. The brick and mortar. Like, you could start to get a feel for like bookstores and movie stores. Like, they were in trouble. You know, you can get a feel just watching the Packers that something is not right. Like, you have one of the greatest players ever. You're going to. going to win a lot of games. So I don't give you a lot of credit for making the playoffs.

You're judged on winning Super Bowls and hell just making it to the Super Bowl. They've only been to two NFC championship games in the last eight years, two. Obviously, they lost, you know, a couple years ago in that dramatic game. I guess they've actually been to three. They did make the run two years ago when they lost the Atlanta Falcons. But several years ago when they lost to Seattle, that team was, you know, okay, but they had that run where they could not beat the 49ers there for like a three-year stretch because defensively, and this has always been the problem. Now, Rogers wasn't very good tonight until that, you know, really the last drive,

which they got bailed out by a terrible Richard Sherman pass, you know, penalty. But when I'm watching Mike McCarthy and I'm watching Kyle Shanahan, and I'll get into Kyle here in a second, like it's pretty clear which coach trajectory is pointing up. Like, if they were a stock, one guy's stock, arrows pointed up, the other at best is neutral, more than likely pointing down. Like, you just watch the Packers and you know something is off. Now, you can blame the personnel, you can blame Rogers being hurt, but they just feel old and stale and just blah. Like, you know, you got a big win. You're playing a 1 in 549er team that did come out and played hard, but they do not have much talent.

As I was tweeting during the game, 49er fans should be elated. That is every game you should root exactly like that. Damn entertaining, damn good, and you lose on a walk-off field goal. And at the end, I kind of felt for Mason Crosby, you can tell he was in tears. Pretty cool to see him come back and get the game-winning field goal. But I'm watching, like, I don't take the Packers seriously as a team that can win the NFC. Their defense is not good enough. and offensively, they just do not feel like a consistent operation.

You can't keep. Like, again, they play like a basketball team. Rogers bail us out. Rogers bail us out. Well, lucky enough tonight, and if you're listening on Monday night, they were playing a team terrible enough, and I don't understand this at all, and I am no scheme guy.

I'm not a coach. I don't think like a coach. Hell, I've never been able to relate to them because I just do not understand. You hear this a lot in basketball. Like, cover the three-point line. You hear that a lot when you're playing. I hear it all the time because teams that play the Warriors,

like run them off the three-point line. That is Greg Popovich's big deal. We'll let you hit twos. We'll let you get dunks and lay-ups. We are going to run you off the three-point line. So the moment they pass to a guy shooting a three-point shot, especially late in a game, you see this all-around basketball late in the game. You just run at him and then jump, obviously,

and make him pump fake and move toward the basket. You're not going to give up a three-point shot. I do not understand on a game drive, like the last drive that Aaron Rogers operated and made three incredible passes, that they have zero timeouts. Once Rogers takes off and makes that run to like the 50-yard line, they can only run one play. That's out-routes. Why would you not guard the sideline? So, again, like the three-point line, you don't let a guy get behind you, but you don't.

don't let a guy get outside you. Because if you're just going to give up seven, eight-yard passes, in the NFL, they can run it in like five seconds. Like, hell, three seconds. And he hit three plays down the sideline. Why do you not tell your corner to cheat the sideline and have a safety cheat behind them so you can't just, they can't run like a post, you know?

So if you do complete a pass, you tackle them before he gets out of bounds. Guess what? They lose the game. they do not have any timeouts. If somehow you're able to tackle a guy with like 14 seconds, they're in major problems because they've got to get to the line. You can hold them down for a second

and then try to snap the ball and spike it. They might not be able to do it. But when you just let them, and again, I repeat, let them catch like a seven yard out and just walk out of bounds and the referee blow the whistle and stop the clock, they're going to matriculate the ball down the field. They're going to be able to get 20 yards

and, you know, 12 seconds. And Rogers even got greedier because he realized they were not going to guard the sideline. Like, it's just embarrassing defense. I mean, great plays by Rogers, but I don't, again, I don't give McCarthy that much credit for that final drive. And as Rogers said, we were playing for overtime, as they should have. They didn't have any timeouts once CJ Betts are threw that pick. But I'm just watching Mike McCarthy thinking, like, it's over. I felt this for a while.

And just because you win doesn't make me feel any more. stronger about like, oh, actually McCarthy's getting it back. No, I don't think he's long for the Packers job. Just because, like, you can tell me the New York Times makes money, I still believe the newspapers are dead. They're not dying. They're dead. Like, it's over with McCarthy.

It's done. It's over. So whether they make the playoffs this year or don't, you know, you should still fire him. Just because you make a playoff game shouldn't mean he's just scholarshiped into the job. Because now to Kyle Chanahan. Like, I'm watching the playoffs. 49ers with Kyle Shanahan.

They went in massive underdogs, depending on where you look, nine and a half, ten points. C.J. Bethard, who they drafted in the third round, which I personally thought was a crazy overdraft. I would not have drafted the guy in the third round. He is

much better than I thought, much better in a lot of people in the NFL, told me they thought, I know coaches, scouts, you know, all said they didn't like them, and I don't blame him. Kyle Shanahan is getting this guy. Now, I've had three weeks since Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL. Three weeks ago, they went toe to toe with what's turning out to be one of the better teams in the NFL in the San Diego Chargers.

I still call them San Diego. They lost by, I think, two points. Last week, they lost to a terrible Cardinal team, but they were down two points in the fourth quarter. And then this week, they were in the lead the entire game. Like, Kyle Shanahan, and this is what I keep telling Niners fans, it's okay to lose. Like, when the Giants are losing, it sucks to lose because twofold. You're like, God, is Pat Schumer good? and two, we don't have a quarterback.

Well, if you're the Niners, Kyle Shanahan's good. Like, it's pretty clear. If you watch football, you just go, that guy's good at his job, win or lose. Now, ultimately, I get the point of the sport is winning, but I judge Kyle differently. Last year when they were one and nine with Brian Hoyer and C.J. Bethard,

I was like, he's doing a good job. And then what happened once Jimmy get there? They started winning. What happened this year? They got off to a slow start. Well, they played Minnesota at Minnesota. Next week, they beat the Lions. Turns out the Lions aren't bad.

The following week, they were getting blown out by Kansas City, who turns out to one of the better teams in the NFL. Then we're making a comeback. Who knows how these last several weeks play out if they have Jimmy Garoppolo. I know Kyle's a good coach. I'm not judging him off wins and losses with C.J. Beatherd. But I do know this. When C.J. Bethard is his quarterback, he's putting them in positions to win.

And Robert Salah, who, listen, I root, I'm bald, been bald now for since like 2011. I was actually bald before that. I actually shaved my head. Ball ding. And I root for ball guys. But Robert Sala, the 49ers defensive coordinator, was just, he's not good. And it's probably over for him. But I am very confident in Kyle Shanahan as a coach and an offensive play caller.

So, like, I get a lot on Twitter. Like, Middokov, you're so much meaner to Gruden. Well, yeah, Gruden's got Derek Carr, who almost won a freaking MVP two years ago. Who's making $25 million. My expectations and standards for those two are a little higher than Kyle and C.J. Beatherd. I do not think there is a team that Kyle and C.J. Bethard should beat in the NFL. They should not win a game in the NFL. So when I don't think you should win a game, neither does Vegas.

I don't judge you when you lose. But I do give you credit when you play close and you compete. I also, like when I watch Mike McCarthy, like your standard, what I judge you off of isn't just squeaking out wins. You have Aaron Rogers. You've built this bad boy for 10 plus years. Now, I know you weren't picking all the players, but I hold you to a higher standard. Like, you shouldn't be pushed to the brink

against C.J. Bethard and Kyle Shane Ann at home on Monday night football. Now, I get coaches will tell you a wins a win, and I get it, but not all wins are equal. You know, like to me, the Packers had to win that game, especially when the Bears blow a game the other day. And Minnesota's kind of got the train back on tracks. and they're about to be four, two, and one. You know, like, you have no choice, Green Bay.

You had to win. And I don't know, listen, I'm out on McCarthy. Rogers wasn't even very good tonight for the majority of the game, but it was just incredible when it mattered the most. I mean, it's just classic Aaron Rogers. Devonte Adams, my guy from Fresno State, has turned into a monster. And Kyle Shanahan has steadily established himself, despite a terrible record.

Now, he went six and ten last year. He's 1 and 5, so that's, what's that, 7 and 16. Not a great record, and I think he is an excellent coach. And not many coaches with poor records can convince me they're an excellent coach. And Kyle's done that. So I'm glad the Monday night game, which looked terrible on paper the moment Jimmy's ACL ripped and Roger's been gimping around, turned out to be really, really entertaining. Let's get into the Sunday night game, which was just unreal, 434-40 Pats.

Basically in 2018, that's the modern day great game. You know, when I think when I was growing up, you know, definitely in like the late 80s, Montana versus L.T., you know, Montana versus the Chicago Bears, Chicago Bears versus the New York Giants. Like it was just tough, knockdown, drag it out. You know, you get over 17 points. You had a chance to win. Just dudes getting their helmet shattered. I mean, it was just a tough guy game.

The game's changed. It's now a spread them out, throw it around, and just let it rip. But two things that I really took away from that Sunday night game. One is, and I tweeted this sarcastically, and I've said this over and over to anyone who listens, but I do kind of feel, when I say this, I'm not necessarily joking. And I think we've all like, you know, my parents, if you saw like Mickey Mantle or Pete

Rose, you know, or Joe Namath or Jerry West, there was just Jack Nicholas, just a reverence to be talked about like the all-time, all-time greats. Like to be able to say like, yeah, I saw Lou Gehrig play. You know, I saw Sandy Cofax. I saw Wilk Chamberlain. Like I can't, I can YouTube them, but I don't feel confident arguing anyone. I was born in 84 and really locked in like early 90s. I don't have a great argument for Joe Montana, you know, to argue one way or the other. Though, I mean, it's the argument's over and it ended a long time ago. But when you've watched someone your entire career, like, which I'm glad, and I'm sure Tiger is, like, Tiger is one athlete that I saw, and LeBron

is the same thing. I've seen start to finish their entire run. Every single major moment they've had in their career, I've seen it all. So if I'm arguing someone greatest basketball player ever, I didn't see all of Michael. Now, I'm a Michael guy, but I feel pretty confident in my Michael Jordan arguments.

Because when I really came into my sport watching Prime, early 90s, like, that was peak Mike. I know what I watched. I know what I consumed. I know what I felt. I vividly remember watching him come back I think he scored, was it 50 against the Knicks when he was wearing 45? But I just know what I experienced.

I've experienced since my junior year in high school up until two nights ago. I'm now 34 years old. So it started when I was 16. I'm now 34. It is pretty nuts. I have seen every memorable moment. I still remember watching the tuck game, tuck rule game, at a buddy's house, Scott Dickey in high school, his parents.

I think we're out of town. We were drinking some beers watching that game. Buddy Brian Hawkins freaked out big Raider fan. But again, this is high school. And that was Brady's year one. I'm now 34 years old. And I've watched the entire thing. I really do say this, like kind of tongue-in-cheek, but not really.

I feel honored to have watched his entire career. Like, I'm never going to see anything like this again. 18 years, same organization, same coach, five chips. Hell, they could win another one this year. Like, it really is pretty incredible what TB12 is not just done, doing, and continues to do. When he got the ball back, and Tyree Kill had to score, you know, he got the ball back with three minutes. I didn't not only have faith, it was like, how's he going to win it? Is he going to slowly work the ball down the field?

Is he going to hurry up really quick? Like, how is he going to do this? That's what I not only knew that the Patriots were going to win, like everyone watching. It was just a matter of what he wanted to do to make it happen. It is just, you know, I don't want him to go away. And I know he screamed at Gronk after the game, like, we're going to do this forever, or we ain't going anywhere. I mean, it really is remarkable.

My mom bought me the book, the TB12 book, you know, whatever he's doing, the kale, the kale smoothies, the avocado ice cream, whatever. He is a killer. and I know this. It is going to take something freaking remarkable to ever get me to argue that what I witnessed with Tom Brady from when I was a junior in high school

to my mid-30s is not the most remarkable thing I've ever seen in sports. It's just incredible. Now, I know the rules have changed. They 100% help them out. I do not dispute that. But for him just to be able to just dominate the way he does is incredible.

Now, if Tiger comes back and wins a couple of majors, that might top it. But the TB12, I'm going to speak about the equivalent if I watch Mickey Mantle, Jerry West, meets Wilts Chamberlain and Bill Russell. Like, I mean, the way I'm going to be telling TB12 stories to the youth when I'm like 60, you're going to think it was Jesus in football pads because it's been unreal to watch this guy. I mean, think about this. For example, last year he lost a Super Bowl, and he got, you know, it goes on his record as an L,

one of the three that he's lost, eight he's been in. It's pretty nuts. I mean, he's won five. He threw for over 500 yards in the Super Bowl and lost. And I think sometimes we've got to be careful. I talked about last week when Drew Brie set the record that I went back and I looked at his game against the Niners in the Divisional Round back in 2011,

when the Niners were the number two overall defense. And that goes, Drew Breeze lost that game. Road game at San Francisco, at Candlestick, lost. Well, you look at his stats. He threw from 430 yards and four touchdowns. Like, he'll take the L, but Drew Brees didn't lose that game. Like Tom Brady's taking the L. Tom Brady didn't lose that game.

This defense couldn't stop anyone, you know? So Tom Brady really is just, I'm honored, and I'm glad him and Tiger are the two and LeBron, but I'm a little down on LeBron now, but I don't dispute his greatness. But Tom, Tiger, I mean, I'm going to be telling people about it when I'm like 70 years old, the stories are going to be just,

they're going to feel made up. Because I don't think I'm ever witnessing this again. I don't think it's even possible. And the other thing is Mahomes. It was clear in the first half of that game. It'd be human nature. It'd be 22. 23 years old, facing the biggest team in the sport, the most famous player, arguably in the history

of the sport in Brady, the best coach in the history of the sport in Belichick on Sunday night, place just going apeshit. And you could just tell, I mean, he was not, I wouldn't say in awe, but I mean, it was a big moment like any young player. It's just, it's just hard to handle. I mean, he played in a big game at Denver, and this game felt 50 times bigger because it was. But in the second half, this kid, through four touchdowns, was nine of 13. And, I mean, it wasn't, it's not going to go down as one of his best games. But it was just so unfaced that I've been talking about it for a while. Like, you can't, when you know it, you see it in terms of nerves.

And the ability as a game goes on to relax and just kind of find a groove. And whether it's his dad being a, you know, professional athlete and his dad, had coaches won a World Series last year. Hell, might win another World Series this year as assistant coach on the Houston Astros. Like, just having a feel for being around the bright lights and the big-time players from a young age. I do think there is something in that. I mean, I've seen it with Steph and Clay. Just how unfazed they are, good or bad, in big moments. And just how they carry themselves to body language. Like the body language on Patrick Mahomes, as a game goes on in a big game on the road, you don't see that very often with young players, especially when

they're rattled early in a game. Usually they just have a shitty game. And it would have been normal for Mahomes to have one of those clunkers, you know, three picks, just worst game as a pro. I mean, it's a six game of his career, you know, seventh at New England. People are like, yeah, he's playing the Patriots, whatever, no big deal. But instead, he comes out in the second half, and he clearly just, Pat, just let it rip. Pat's like, yeah, just let it rip. Well, it's one thing to just say let a rip. It's another thing to do it in front of, you know,

65,000 people in Foxboro. They want your head. And he just came out slinging it. I mean, I do think the far of comparison does have some merit. Just his ability to make plays, be fun, and his arm overcome everything. He is a fun, fun, fun player, man.

I thoroughly enjoy watching Patrick Mahomes, and I think we get him again on Sunday night. So if you can't see the body language on Mahomes and how confident he is in situations that are going against him and how much joy and fun he has, when things start going well, I mean, a couple of those touchdown passes, them showing him on clips just running down the field with his arms up,

I'm telling you, man, he had some far-vian parallel. So tip your hat to Brady. if you're my age, be grateful that you've got to witness his entire career and you can speak about them like Mantle or Ruth, you know, to your kids and get ready because my homes ain't going anywhere either.

One team that's kind of flying under the radar because I think we easily make fun of them because their owner moved them from San Diego to L.A. I still consider them the San Diego Chargers. The valuation of the team only went up by like $100 million. They pay a

dollar rent to basically just piggyback off Stan. No one cares about them in Los Angeles. They play in front of like 25,000 people, and every team they play consistently has more fans than them. But when you peel back the onion, you just go, let's just look at the football team. They are, to me, the third best team in the AFC,

and probably a top five or six team in the NFL. They have an excellent defense. Joey Bosa has not even played a snap for them, and he is their best defensive player. And that's saying something because Melvin Ingram is damn good, but offensively is where they're on a different level. Right now, Philip Rivers is sneaky having a MVP type season. He's got 15 touchdowns.

He's got, he's almost throwing 70% completion percentage. Now that's a little skewed in this day and age. I get it. But you just, to me, he just passes the eye test. You watch him, he's playing elite football. But to me, the game changer for them, and this is when the Chargers were really humming in their prime with like Marty and Rivers and Drew Brees was with LT.

And when you can run the ball and you have a dynamic runner that can do everything, run inside, run outside, throw the ball to, they took this guy in the first round. And listen, the last guy that they tried to replace LT with, I have a soft spot for Ryan Matthews, who was drafted in the first round, that I was around when I was a GA at Fresno State, I thought he warranted the pick. Career didn't go right, and he never quite lived, I mean, he just never did.

but he went on, I think he had one season where he had 1,000 yards for them, but he was always hurt. This guy, Melvin Gordon, when they drafted him at the 15th overall draft pick, his first year he looked terrible. He did not even have a rushing touchdown. And then these last couple of years, he has really come on.

This year, I was just looking at some of the stats before recording this podcast. He's averaging over five yards of rush. He has six rushing touchdown. touchdowns. But in 2018, if you're a first round pick, you have to be a complete back. Well, guess what? He's got 30 catches and three touchdowns in the air. Like Melvin Gordon is a complete back. He's a top five running back in this league right now and no one even talks about it, partly because he plays on a team that's kind of flying under the radar. They got Keenan Allen.

They got the kid Tyrell Williams that just can run like the wind. They got Mike Williams that hasn't really pissed a drop. It was a first round pick. Antonio Gates still flying around out there. They're finally protecting rivers. This team, to me, could make some noise come January. And listen, I'm not a fan of the owner, Dean. RIP, his dad, Alex, who passed away last year. But Dean, since running it and basically has taken control, I think, in the late 90s, has done a very, very poor job.

Consistently, and I don't think Anthony Lynn's very good. But luckily, they can overcome it twofold. Gus Bradley runs the defense. And that's just his baby. And Philip Rivers runs the offense. I don't really know what Anthony Lynn does. Now, there is going to be some pressure on Rivers playing big in big games. You know, there are only one game behind the Chiefs right now.

Now, they're going to have to play Kansas City later this season in Kansas City. That's going to be difficult. But when you look at, like, he's won playoff games before. He's won big games. They do have a team that when you can play defense, when you can run the ball, when you have possession-type-wide receivers, That stuff does translate the cold, tough environments, you know, the Baltimore's, the Kansas cities, the New England's.

Like, they could make a run. I don't think it's crazy. I wouldn't bet on them. But I'm starting to take them a lot more seriously than I have in years past. I get it was the Browns. And listen, if the Browns had a good coach, they'd be a playoff team too and said they got Hugh Jackson. They're going to win nothing.

The Chargers went into Cleveland and beat the living crap out of them. I mean, just backhand. handed them. And that's the type when you go, okay, this team's good. You know, this team is not going away. And then the way football works, like, if you're just one or two games behind with eight games to go with a team in your division, like you're in pretty good shape, especially if you play them again. Like you control a lot of your own destiny. Now, if you're four games behind with five games left, yeah, this isn't baseball. You're screwed. But as long as you can keep one or two game cushion and you still have that game against Kansas City.

City, like, you know, Kansas City's, you know, their defense is so bad, and I think they're damn good, probably going to win 11 or 12 games. They're not a 14 win team. You can't, when your defense is that terrible, you're not going to win 14 games. And like, even this week for Kansas City, they're playing Cincinnati at home. That's a tough game. Like, that's going to be a tough game from home. Cincinnati's defense is really good. They've lost two games in a row now. I guess they've lost one game in a row because they beat Miami. But they lost one game just to Cincinnati. the Pittsburgh that they shouldn't have lost. I mean, they were winning the game, and then Antonio Brown took that pass to the house without much time left. But Cincinnati could be Kansas City. Mahalms is, and I'm a huge Mahomes guy, but he's going to take his lumps.

He's going to have a bad game eventually, even at home. So, I mean, we thought he was having it against New England, and then boom, he turned it on the second half. You know, I think Cincinnati is really good. Cincinnati's top five AFC team. You know, so this is a tough week. I do not think the charges are out of it in the division. I think it will be difficult for them to win the division,

but they're definitely not out of it. And I think we're a couple games away from them being a borderline lock playoff team. And just one of those playoff teams, like I'd have more faith in Rivers and that defense and Melvin Gordon going on the road and beating Kansas City and New England than I would Cincinnati. I can't envision Andy Dalton pulling that off. I can't envision Rivers.

you know so just just keep San Diego I refuse to call them Los Angeles in the back of your head as a team to watch because I think they're pretty damn good let's get into a little college football before we get into the middle cough mail bag because I do think that the playoff picture has I wouldn't say it's in you know set in concrete as I sit here recording this October 15th but we got a pretty damn good idea of the seven eight teams they're going to make it I would say the top three are feel like a lock and there's a swing state. You know, if this was an election, just because the game hasn't been played. But, you know, more than likely, the fourth team, I feel pretty confident, really.

Let's just go through it. And this would be my personal ranking. This is, I think, it's not really many arguments right now. Number one, Bama, easily the most explosive offense they've had in the Sabin era. When two is on, he's basically unstoppable. They got receivers. I mean, it looks like they got two or three of Mari Cooper's. They obviously can run the ball defensively.

They fly around and just crush people. You never bet against Nick Sabin. They really have one tough home game or excuse me, a way game left on the schedule. And that's at LSU, who's actually sneaky, still alive, just got a big win at Georgia. But I do feel pretty confident that Alabama will handle business. My number two team would be Notre Dame. If you've watched them start to finish, you could argue they've had a better season so far than Alabama.

They kicked Michigan's ass. I know the score was closer and it looked, you know, week one. Now it was at home. They got Virginia Tech a couple weeks ago on the road. They kicked Stanford's ass, who, listen, Stanford's not, you know, probably eight, nine win team, but

Notre Dame backhanded them. Notre Dame has an excellent defense. They can really run the ball and the quarterback does enough. To me, they are a legitimate playoff team. If they run the table, they really just have one tough game. I don't know how tough it is against USC. I think Notre Dame.

I don't want to say borderline lock because I don't totally trust them to go 12 and O, but they feel pretty close to a lock. I'm pretty confident they're going to be in the playoffs. Three Clemson. They've been up and down this year, but here's what I know. When the freshman quarterbacks in, the offense has a huge upside. They can still run the ball and defensively they have elite talent. Like they have Alabama level talent on defense.

They have a defensive coordinator that makes almost $2 million for a reason. They are a super high-level team. Like they're high-high-in, though they have not played there this year, they deserve to go to, like, they can play with anyone in the playoffs if they play well. Now, they can easily get beat in round one. I do think the ACC stinks, but they do deserve it. Like Clemson is a playoff level roster, a roster loaded with NFL dudes. So I know this.

If they figure it out, this last month. month heading into the playoffs because they're going to run the table that if they just start playing better that Trevor Lawrence gets healthy and you know I know he came back but I just mean like if he's playing well as they head into the playoffs like they can win the whole thing and number four right now it's kind of fluid because the Harbaugh haters have kind of been shut up one the one loss he has Notre Dame turns out they're the second or third best team in the country they're going to be a playoff team the game was on the road since then all Harbaugh's done is kick ass He had probably his best win of his career was on Saturday night against Wisconsin,

where they just manhandled Wisconsin, who is good. You know, he's probably going to go nine and three this year. Just slapped them around. Don't get this twisted either. Jim did not have his best player. Gary, the defensive lineman, did not play in the game. Now, Ohio State hasn't had their best player either in Joey Bose's brother, Nick, for the last several games either.

But to me that last spot is more than likely going to come down to that game. Because I think Michigan, they play Michigan State this week, is at Michigan State. So that game will be tough. Michigan State just had a big upset of Penn State. So that's no lock-lock win. They still have to play Penn State. But if they can win those next two games, then I think they got Rutgers and Indiana. If they could run the table and be 10-1 going into that Ohio State game,

and Ohio State is undefeated in that game, and they could beat Ohio State at Ohio State, Michigan's going to be in the playoffs. And your playoffs would be Bama, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Michigan. Now, the curveball would be LSU, who had a bad loss to Florida. The game was at Florida. Just had an incredible win at home against Georgia. Well, in two weeks, they play Alabama. If LSU were to beat Alabama, they would bump Alabama out.

And LSU would be in the mix and in the driver's seat to potentially play Georgia or Florida again in the SEC championship game and control their own destiny. Like, LSU's in a pretty good spot for being kind of an underdog. Like, to me, they are the fifth team on the outside looking in that does control a lot of their destiny just because they have Alabama in a couple weeks. Now, can they beat, can Edeo beat Nick Saban? I don't know. But you got to give Edeos due. Like his teams played hard.

They well coached. He's got expensive coordinators. Quarterback makes enough plays. They clearly got talent running the ball at running back and at wide receiver. Defensively, they got freaks everywhere. Like to me, LSU, they might not make the playoffs, but you could throw them in the playoffs and they can win the whole thing. Like, they do have a playoff level team.

I feel very confident about saying that. You could argue that LSU, like, I'm not saying that they, you know, necessarily deserve this because Clemson's one more game, but they're a better team than Clemson. Like, just better, they play better as a team than Clemson. You could make that argument, and I'd listen. I'm not saying that's true or I'm saying it's false, but they have moments

that their game against Georgia's probably more impressive than anything Clemson's done this year. Now, Clemson is going to win their conference and is proven it the last three years so I'm not trying to diminish Clemson's talent, ability, or resume relative to LSU.

I'm just saying you could make the argument. Michigan, as I said, is right in the mix. I think you've got a couple sleepers. Like, to me, UCF has no chance. This thing's rigged, and it's rigged for Big Five. He's rigged for big business. A non-power-five school is not getting in the final four playoff.

It's just not happening. They would take a team like Oregon as a one-lost team if Oregon were to run the table with Justin Herbert who's going to be the number one overall pick before they would UCF. If Texas runs the table with wins over USC that might win nine or ten games, Oklahoma that's going to win 10 games, Texas would get in over UCF. And again, I got no problem. Like, I'm sorry, UCF. You're not getting in the playoff.

I don't want to see you in the playoffs. I'd rather see Oregon or Texas in there if some of these teams, you know, screw up down the stretch. So right now I got Bama, Notre Dame, Clemson, the winner of Ohio State, Michigan, with LSU, and Texas and Oregon

kind of lurking. Oregon would be a really, really long shot. And Texas would just need a little carnage. They are not totally dead. I owe an apology. I thought Tom Herman was terrible. I thought the hype on him was beyond extreme. Turns out he's pretty good coach.

You know, it turns out I might have been wrong just because I just I thought the hype was so strong. He's a good coach. So this playoffs, while we got a pretty good idea who's going to be the six, seven teams. I like all these teams. I'm very excited. It should be very fun. Okay, let's get to the Middilkoff mailbag. And you can always hit me up on Instagram at John Middlecough.

Slide up in those DMs and I will answer your questions right now, last segment of the show. I got a bunch, so I'm a little behind. I'll bang out a bunch for this one, and then I'll bang out more for Friday. Just keep hitting me up. And if I don't answer your question on this, I will 100% answer it on Instagram. So I'm active on social media if you're not following me,

Twitter, Instagram, same handle, at John Middlecuff. Start with this question from BT. Awesome. With the history of the Pat starting slow, then playing great as the season goes on, What are the chances the Lions have figured things out with Matt Patricia after looking pretty good the last few weeks? They actually also look decent against the Niners offensively. I will say one thing for the Lions.

Their past game with Tate, with Marvin Jones, with the Gallaudet guy, and with the running backs that can all catch the ball. Riddick, Abdullah, Carri-on Johnson, who they drafted from Auburn. their offensive explosion in the past game is when they're on, they can score with anyone. Like Mahomes, Brady, you name it. They can really score. And most years, you'd be like, well, their defense sucks.

They're kind of soft. They can't really run the ball. They're actually running the ball better with Kerry on Johnson. But those type teams don't really last. Well, the game's kind of changed. Now the rules are pretty conducive to what the lines do really well. So I'm not writing them off at all. all. I think they're, they might be better than the Packers. Like, I'm watching the Packers

the night. Now, we've obviously watched the Lions play the Packers. They're just more explosive on offense. And it's not like the Packers are any good on defense. Minnesota is just kind of a weird team, though I think they're the best, most talented team in the division. But their first round pick, the rookie corner, Hughes just tore his ACL. The Bears are probably a year away. Like, it's, I thought they can go 10 and 6. Now after the Miami, lost, they're probably more of an 8 and 18, but they could still might be getting 9 and 7. But I think all these teams, if you told me any one of the Lions would probably be the biggest stretch, but Stafford's made the playoffs multiple times.

And again, they can really score. Jim Bob Cooter is really good. Like, he just is. Now, is Matt Patricia a good head coach? I don't know. But I'm not writing them off yet, and I've hated on him earlier. But you've got to give him credit because everyone was pouring gasoline on them. and he's kind of risen from the ashes. And again, they do have a pretty good player at the most important position.

Is the first player you'd pick in a fantasy draft? Maybe in a fantasy draft, but in a reality draft, no. You know, relative to the other quarterbacks in the league, but he's still pretty damn good, and that's Matt Stafford. And he's got a ton of weapons. And he's got an offensive coordinator that knows what he's doing. So I don't know if they're going to make the playoffs, but I think they're going to be heard from as the season goes on.

For the mailback, Will Chip Kelly turn it around at UCLA? I've said over and over and over again that I don't think Chip Kelly has a great point of difference anymore. He doesn't value defense and offensively what he does, every team does. Every good team operates with pace. Can go no huddle. Can snap the ball with 35 seconds left on the play clock. A lot of teams do that.

So Chip has not shown the ability since he wants. went to the NFL to adapt at all. That's all he does. So can he change? Can he get UCLA competitive? I got news for you. They were kind of competitive when Jim Morrow was there. They made it to a Pac-12 championship game. You know, they were winning seven, eight games. Is Chip Kelly going to be a 10-11 win coach at UCLA? No, I do not think it. Is he going to be a train wreck? Probably not, because UCLA always gets talented players. And Chip is a good offensive coach. The thing is, his offense is just not that unique anymore. Now, the South, like, to me, Arizona State's going to continue to get better with Herm Edwards.

Arizona sucks. USC is still USC getting better players. Utah and Colorado are just talented, and they've been in the conference for a while, and they're just good. Like, Utah is really tough on defense. Colorado and Mike McIntyre are just good. They're just a solid program. So it's going to be difficult. Like is Chip Kelly right now a better coach than Kyle Whittingham and Mike McIntyre?

I don't know. He surely was, you know, six years ago. But I don't hold on to things from way in the past as long as some people. Like, guys, it's 2018. Like, yeah, he was kicking ass in 2012 at Oregon. Again, it's almost 2019. It's almost 2019. So holding on to some of those Oregon teams, I think,

somewhat of a stretch. John, love the show. Was wondering if you think, this is a good one actually, because I tweeted this out. Do you think, I was wondering if Justin Herbert is a better NFL prospect than Marcus Marriota was his last year at Oregon. Thank you. Keep up the good work. Tyler from Oregon.

I tweeted this out during the Oregon Washington game. This tweet was actually, or this DM was actually from last week, but do you think that Justin Herbert is a better pro prospect than Marcus Marriota was his last season at Oregon. And I'm watching the Oregon-Washington game and, you know, about halfway through. And I've watched Herbert a couple games earlier this season, game against Stanford. Justin Herbert is a better prospect than Marcus Marietta. And I'm not saying that MMQB style because Marcus Marriota is kind of struggling in the NFL. He's just physically more gifted.

He's a more gifted thrower of the football. me, he's much more of a traditional pocket quarterback where Marriota really was more of an athletic version of like Alex Smith. People crushed me once time when I said that. And it's kind of been proven true. Like Marriota is a pretty flawed player, though I like Marriota. And I personally root for him because he's a great guy. But coming out of Oregon, throw the stats away because Marietta's stats were incredible. Justin Herbert is just a better pro prospect. Justin Herbert is a lock if he comes out. Some people in the NFL don't think it's a lock

because his brother is going to be a true freshman next year at Oregon. So there is, I'm always hesitant to say a guy he's going to go back to school when he's a lock number one pick or even a top five pick. Like Sam Darnold. He was a redshirt sophomore last year and people were like, ah, he might go back to school. Turns out he didn't.

And he went pro. And he's really good. And he's balling for the jets. Now the brother thing is, of unique. Like if you're really close to your brother, he's going to be a freshman, you get to play college football with your brother. Now, if he's a freshman, he may red shirt, but you still get to being on campus with him. That is pretty rare and unique. Still, I would lean, he ends up going pro. And I would imagine all the big time agents are trying to get with him, trying to convince

him to become a pro, but he's going to be a lock for number one overall pick. I also think he's just going to be better than Marriota in the pros. I just think he's going to be good. I would draft him number one overall. I would put him in the mix the last three or four years of one of the better players to come out. You know, Jared Goff went one. Obviously that year, Wence went, you know, two. Last year, all the quarterbacks that came out, to me, Herbert's right in the mix with

them all. He is just from a talent standpoint. He is that talented. He's basically like, you know, he doesn't have quite. the arm of like Josh Allen, but he does have a big arm, but he does kind of have a loopy release a little bit like Mahomes, but he doesn't throw the ball quite as hard. I mean, he's a really, really, I mean, I don't want to call him elite pro prospect, but he's a damn good pro prospect. He's damn good. So I look for, Oregon's good, and they're mainly good because of him. Like,

he is really good. They're a fun watch. He's a fun watch. Excellent player. And someone is, whether they trade up, whether do a team like the Niners or the Giants or the Raiders trade back? Who knows? Raiders might take them. The Giants would take them too. But like, do the Broncos trade up? He's just going one. I promise you that.

Hey, John, big fan of the show. I'm a huge Packer fan and wanted to get your thoughts on who the Packers should go after once they let McCarthy go. I like Mike and appreciate what he's done for the franchise, but it's run his course. I said this earlier in the podcast 100%. It's just time. I wouldn't say McCarthy, and I know he's won a Super Bowl, but I think most of us would have agreed if we're just having a conversation. If you get one coach, you have zero players on your team.

You have to put your entire team together. You got McCarthy or Andy Reed starting for the next five years of your franchise. 99% of people would take Andy Reed. But McCarthy has a Super Bowl, right? Andy Reid's a better coach. And again, this wasn't even trying to be a shot at McCarthy. It just shows you like, McCarthy for a Super Bowl, He makes the playoffs every year is kind of a flawed coach.

You know, for a guy that I think most people will consider, you know, a top 10 NFL coach. He's, I don't know. I like Mike McCarthy, but I'm with you. It's run his course. Any OCDCs or guys at the college level that would be a great fit. They got Rogers in his prime. He's locked up contractually for the next several years. They got Devante Adams.

They got multiple first round picks. Like, what if you called Lincoln Riley? Would Lincoln Riley be interested in? working with Aaron Rogers. Would Aaron Rogers want that? You know, Aaron Rogers are going to have some say in this hire. You know, I think multiple offensive coordinators would immediately get interviews. Jim Bob Cooter with Detroit.

John D. Philippo with Minnesota. I think Lincoln Riley would be crazy to not interview Lincoln Riley. I don't think they would do like a retread, you know, a guy on a second job. I think they would go young, up-and-coming guy. Lincoln Riley would be a little bit of a stretch. You know, Matt Campbell at Iowa State. I think that Jim Bob Cooter and John D. Philippa would 100% get interviews. I think the Packers would be crazy if they, again, it's the Green Bay Packers.

So like if the Green Bay Packers called Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, let's just say Tom Herman were to make the playoffs. Tom Herman at Texas. That'd be a little bit of a stretch. but let's say Lincoln Riley. He said, hey man, you want to be the head coach, the Green Bay Packers? You know, you listen. It's like once upon a time, Brad Stephen said he was never leaving,

turning down jobs left and right. Then Danny Aange got on the phone and said, hey, this is Danny Aange, the general manager of the Boston Celtics. Can we talk? Hey, this is Brian Gutakins. Is Lincoln there? This is Brian Gutikens. The general manager.

of the Green Bay Packers. Hell, I'd pick up my phone. You know? I mean, it's just, it is a very intriguing job, and they would get people to pick up the phone. Like those offensive coordinators would die for that job. I do think there would be some college head coaches that would have to consider turning it down

and leaving their program to become the head coach of the Green Bay Packers. You know, so it's like once upon a time, Jimmy Johnson left Miami to leave with Jerry Jones, and the Cowboys were terrible at the time. Think about that. The Packers, let's just say hypothetically they missed the playoffs this year at like 7, 8, 8, and 1. Rogers banged up most of the year, the defense is terrible. It would be one of the most intriguing job openings in years, in forever. I mean, it would be pretty wild how powerful the draw of that job would be.

I mean, I think people would leave jobs to try to get that job. Okay, John, let's role play. I like role play. Say you're Jerry Jones, and you fired Scott Lenehan and Jason Garrett. Who do you go after as replacements? Well, kind of like the Green Bay Packers. Be easier, and I think the conversation continues. We'll end on this question.

I think it's much easier in Green Bay when Brian Gutakins and Mike Murphy get on the phone. They go, listen. We're an organization of stability. We're an organization that believes. in our coach. We're an organization that gets behind the coach during good and bad times. Look, we've stuck by McCarthy. You know, through the success, through the last couple of years that have been a little rough, we let him hang on out of loyalty to his coaches.

So to me, the Packer job is better than the cowboy job in the sense that you get more autonomy to do what you want to do. And you have a really, really bright general manager in Gutikins. I think he's really good. You have a good scouting staff that has cultivated countless GMs around the NFL the last 20 years. Like the blueprints there in Green Bay. They just, what Andy Reid is the coaches, Green Bay is the front office members. So to me it'd be really intriguing because I think they'd be interviewing the same people.

I think Jerry, who went to Arkansas, would try to interview, you know, he once stole a guy from Oklahoma and Barry Switzer. I think he would interview Barry Switzer. for sure. Or not, excuse me, not Barry, not Barry Switzer. I think Jerry would interview Lincoln Riley. I don't know if necessarily Lincoln Riley would take that job. I think it would be really, I don't think, I had Lincoln Riley on this podcast like six months ago.

Listen, I think he thinks he's at his dream job. He loves Oklahoma. And he's going to keep having these opportunities. He's only 35 years old. So as crazy as it sounds, he might turn down the Packers and the Cowboys. just be like they're going to be around in four or five years. I'm going to keep winning here. Would you, if you were Lincoln Riley, turn down Jerry Jones? Like, what if he offered you $10 million a year? You know, what if he offered you $50 million? Now, Lincoln Riley makes

$5 million. It doesn't have to answer really to anyone at Oklahoma besides maybe a few boosters. I think Jerry, and this is why he's hesitant to hire, to fire Jason Garrett. And Jason, just when, the crazy part about Jason Garrett is every time you really want to write him off, He's a little like Mike McCarthy, too, but a poor man's version, he, like, will have some crazy win. Like, you just won 40 to 7 against the Jaguars? Who the hell saw this coming? I would have, if you would have said someone went Jacksonville and Dallas play, someone wins 40 to 7, I'd be like, God, Jason Garrick gets blown out. No, he won.

So it turns out like, watch Jason Garrett go and win the division. But I think it'll be hard for Jerry. I think he loves Jason Garrett. He likes the continuity of just they speak the same language. like the Jim Bob Cooter and the John D. Philippo examples. Let's use John D. Filippo. John D. Filippo is going to become a head coach in the very, very near future. But would Jerry take a chance on a coordinator that had never been a head coach

when he's kind of down the home stretch of his life? That's why I think he would love like Nick Saban wouldn't take the job. But a guy like that. And I don't think they're taking the job. I think Jerry's in a tough place because I think he knows. Like my money, it's more people, like all these guys are getting paid. Like if you're the coach at Iowa State, you make three or four million dollars. Like they're all multi-millionaires.

If you ever met coaches, they don't really have lives. They're not living like you and me, like a bunch of free time. And if you gave me $5 million a year, like I would have time to spend it. Like Lincoln Riley is making more money than he ever dreamed of. So is Matt Campbell. So's Urban Meyer. Like all these guys, the money is not really an issue. Now you can offer a guy if he's making five, eight.

But listen, I've never made $5 million. I never met $8 million. But the difference is like I'm a millionaire. And if I have a three or four year contract at five a year, like my kids are set. So just because you're offering me eight, if I really like my job, it's not really that big a difference. Now, if you double it or triple it, which Jerry can do. But I still think people turn down jobs all the time when they're making a lot of money. Why?

Because when you make a lot of money, you do have some leverage. You don't need to leave. Like, you're already set. So I don't know. If Jerry fired Jason Garrett, this role play, maybe I'm bad at it. I don't really know. I think Lincoln Riley, one million percent would get an interview. I think if he, let's say, hypothetically turn him down,

Dan Mullen had success with Dack. Dan Mullen went to Florida. What if Florida goes 10 and 2? Would he hire Dan Mullen? You know, it feels that'd be a desperate hire, but would he hire Dan Mullen, a guy that has head coaching experience before he'd hire a first-time coordinator like John D. Philippa or Jim Bob Cooter? Kind of feels like you would. Again, this is guessing Jerry has hired like two coaches in the last like 15 years.

So I don't know. I don't feel confident. First off, let's just stop the role playing here. I do not think he's going to fire Jason Garrett. Appreciate everyone listening. Again, Middokoff Mailbag. You can always slide up in my DMs at John Middlough. and I'll haul at you.

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