The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Middlekauff – 3 & Out - Giants should consider a Derek Carr trade, Amari Cooper trade reaction, Week 8 takeaways

Episode Date: October 23, 2018

Subscribe here to the 3 and Out with John Middlekauff Podcast https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff/id1352730623?mt=2. 3 and Out with John Middlekauff is part of the Colin Cowherd Podcast Network. 3 and Out is an unfiltered podcast covering the biggest stories in the NFL and college football. John brings his unique perspective as a former NFL scout, NFL analyst and radio host. In this episode, John explains why it's beyond over for Eli Manning as an NFL QB, gives his reaction to the Cowboys trading a first rounder for Amari Cooper, his Week 8 takeaways, and answers listener questions from the Middlekauff Mailbag. Follow John on Twitter @JohnMiddlekauff and go to theherdnow.com to find the latest content. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. What is going on, everybody? John Middlecough, back at it again, three and out podcast. We're going every Tuesday. We're going every Friday. At the end of this podcast, they do a Middlecoff mailbag. You can always slide right into my DMs. This podcast, I mean, we had huge breaking news on Monday. I'll break it down from the cowboy side of things. You know, Jerry Jones, I actually think I like it more than most. My thoughts on John Gruden, finally making a pretty good trade.

But really, what is the end game in Oakland? Because it's one of the bigger trades you'll see anytime a player, especially mid-season, gets traded for a first-round pick. The irony is now the Raiders have traded two of their star three young players and netted three first-round picks. It showed you, like, the NFL thought these guys are pretty good. But we'll get into that. I'll also go a little bit around the league, things I saw on Sunday,

maybe even a little Saturday, too. My guy Jim Harbaugh is rolling again. But I got to start with the Monday night game, Atlanta, the Giants. And I'm going to start one quick thing because I realize why casual baseball fans don't spend too much time on Twitter like we do as NFL fans, as NBA fans. Like, you can just have arguments. You can just argue like I think Steph Curry is better than Russell Westbrook. And we can just have the argument.

I can argue Damian Lillard is better than John Wall. And we can just argue, like a sports fan argument. We obviously do that all the time in football. What player is better than the other player? Is Vaughn Miller or Cleo Mac? Who would you rather have? Would you have Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers? We just have these.

I mean, we're still arguing about Tom Brady versus Joe Montana, LeBron James versus Michael Jordan. And baseball, you never have those arguments. It's all analytically driven. Like you can't get on social media and drop, I think so-and-so sucks. And as someone that lives in the Bay Area, Brandon Belt, the first baseman for the Giants,

easily one of the worst players for the hype the Giants have had in recent memory, but the analytics crowd loves them. And they'll hit you back with, but it's OBP, but it's FIP, BIP, and Whip, but is his ERA Plus. And they hit you with all these stats, and it says like, can't we just have a normal conversation?

I'm watching the guy, I know he's not good. You can give me one stat, and yeah, he might do one thing well. But in the other two sports, the great thing is, like in football and basketball, for the most part, you know, you can't have 10 catches as a wide receiver and tell me the guy isn't an all pro. But you can convince me a guy with like 70 catches is a good player, right? We have, especially now, and I'm pro the numbers. I'm pro stats. You can dive deeper.

It's a great part about pro sports now. We have so much information that we can dive into it like a business because we have so much information. And that's positive. But to me, there are still elements of the sport of football. football that I can kind of watch and know and get a feel for things like I don't know if that's a great idea and I've gotten this argument tonight about the two point conversion which ultimately was a moot point at the time it was 20 to 6 Atlanta with about five minutes left and the stats community believes that that is time to go for it if you are the new york giants to go for two and the giants

did so they score a touchdown it's 20 to 12 they are now eight points again it is obviously assuming and contingent on them getting the ball back, which the way this all played out, they did not. But the analytics crew believes to their core that you have to go for it right then if you're playing to win. And I get that. But here's my problem with it. Not everything is created equal. You hear this all the time in the NBA with the three point shot. Well, if you're just gunning three pointers, I don't mind it if I have Steph Curry and Clay on my team. But if I have the dudes LeBron's playing with right now, and the Lakers, I don't like it as much.

Like, not all situations are created equal. I looked desperately before I started the podcast and I couldn't find it. And where I, I just found a general staff that most two-point conversions are around a 50% conversion rate. But if I really dove into the analytics, I would imagine, and this is an educated guess, that better offenses skew the statistics. Like, I know for a fact, if I'm at the two-yard line, and I have the Patriots offense

or I have Andy Reed as my offensive coordinator with his offense. His chances are statistically and just obviously have a higher percentage and chance of succeeding than if I have Pat Schumer who is so clearly over his head

as a head coach and watched Eli Manning running the two-point play. Now, I know this, someone, my buddy Jeff Schwartz, I'm sure you follow him on Twitter if you listen to this. Former offensive linemen now works in the media. I was just texting with him before I got on. He was because he was arguing, or he was just telling me that like two teams have tried this now.

Down 16, they go for the two off the jump to hope that they can get the ball back and then just kick the field or the PAT to win it. It's failed twice. Philly did it and lost and obviously the Giants did it and lost tonight. But I'll say this. Like if Carson Wentz is my quarterback, I can, I guess this. outside the box, I don't even know if it's outside the box. I get it. Like, I will try bolder, riskier moves. If Eli Manning's my quarterback, I don't want to be forced into a position

where I got to go for two twice because I just checked and if I broke down the down and distance, all I know is the Giants are 25th in the NFL and fourth down percentage in the NFL. Now, most times you're going for fourth down. It's fourth and short. They are 21st on third down percentage. They are not a good offense. They are not an efficient offense. They do not convert many must downs. So to think that in that situation, down two points, again, there are a lot of other variables. And here's the problem with football. Like, there are so many variables in the sport. In baseball, it's easy. Like, what's your batting average against a left-hander in a two-two count? Like, I can cut out the majority in a dome. Like, I can cut out variables.

quickly. Well, in football, it's like, well, how's the other defense playing? How's your offense playing? Who's calling the plays? What wide receivers do you have on the field? Is your running back healthy? Is he already knocked out of the game? And you get your second running back in the game. What is the other team's nickel packages? If you do go three wide receiver sets, who's the opponent's defensive coordinator? If you plan on running it, does that team have an elite goal line defense? There's just so many variables in football. It's why statistics and numbers people struggle with it so much because there is a huge personal element to the sport. Like in baseball, I can break it all down just with a spreadsheet.

Now, there are obviously high character guys and low character guys and that stuff eventually matters. But for the most part, they say in baseball, the importance of that day and the chemistry of that team is that day's starting pitcher. Where in football, they're like even general managers don't know the place, you know? Just assume that it's a 50-50 shot. I call BS on that. Maybe if Tom Brady's your quarterback,

but not if Eli Manning in that offense, not with Pat Schumer calling the plays, maybe with Kyle Shanahan as your offensive coordinator. But again, like Kyle Shannon can be my offensive coordinator. Here you can call me a great play, but if C.J. Betts was my quarterback, he might not convert it. I think we get with these absolutes in these situations.

It's just, it's not a simple game of percent, It just isn't not in football because it's based on who's playing that position. Who is on your team? How are you in these certain situations? Like if you're a bad short yardage team, all of a sudden you're a 50-50 shot to get a two-point conversion? Bullshit. No chance. Just not true.

But I just, I understand why I dove into the analytics argument and I can see why on social media, you know, why the casual baseball got. stays away because it is exhausting. And again, I'm not opposed or not open-minded enough to just disbelieve this. I understand if you got Tom Brady, the numbers may say, yeah, go for two right there. You know, Bill Belichick, you might be able to get a defensive stop, get the ball back, kick a PAT to win it. Now, you could argue, I think the average PAT this year is like 92%. Now, you just hope that that 8% is not Justin Tucker with the game on the line.

But my other big takeaway tonight, because at the end of the day, it was a moot point. I mean, the Giants are god-awful. They are terrible. And Eli's washed. Like, it's over. And we keep getting him in prime time. We had them in Monday night football two weeks ago. We had them in Sunday night football last week.

We have them in Monday night football in two weeks against the night. It just doesn't stop. I don't know how much longer I can take. But it's beyond over. You can't keep rolling this guy out as your quarterback. He's just, it's not functionalable. You will just keep losing every game. If he's your starting quarterback, he can't move.

You are going to lose, I would say, every game but one moving forward, just because you do have, like you have Odell Beckham, Jr., a generational wide receiver. You have Sequin Barkley, who is a fantastic running back. Sterling Shepard, Ingram, your offense is loaded. Yeah, your offensive line's not great. So most offensive lines aren't great. Eli can't move.

He's not accurate. There was a play tonight where they went forward on, it was like fourth and short. Here's another good example. They went forward on fourth and one. I think it was the end of the first half or early in the, maybe it was early in the second half. I can't even remember. Now, maybe it was the middle of the second quarter,

whenever it was. They went for it on a fourth, it was fourth and one. And they ran this pretty good plus. to Odell Beckham. He kind of did a little fake like he was going to run back toward Eli and then just went toward the pylon. And he was open and Eli did not pull the trigger. He never pulls the trigger. And they went to a shot of Pat Schumer when he said throw to Odell. Like Odell was open. Even if it was a step open, he was open off the option route. Like Pat Schumer schirmer schemed it up. It worked. yet Eli Manning could not execute the play. Eli Manning can't execute plays.

It's just really that simple. Like watching him and Maddie Ice, Maddie Ice is playing a different sport than Eli. And if you're the Giants, and this will lead into, I know this. The Raiders are full on fire sale right now. Everyone is available. Every single person in that building

except John Gruden is available. Mark Davis would trade Reggie McKenzie for the right price. Like every guy's available. If I'm the Giants, I would think about because they're not going to be in the business of drafting a rookie. We just saw that last year.

They could have had Sam Darnold. They said, nope. I think now they know Eli sucks, but that doesn't change their mindset. They're not going to want a rookie quarterback because they're going to say, if we can just get somewhat of a veteran guy in here, we have the roster and players around them

that we could, in theory, compete. if we got, let's say, Derek Carr, like Derek Carr with Odo Beckham, Sterling, Shepard, Ingram, and Sequin Barkley, and we draft, you know, a couple offensive linemen, maybe sign another one in free agency, we got something going. So if I'm them, I'd offer right now probably two-toes, and it'd be worth the risk. I'm not giving up my first round pick.

I just can't. And Derek's not worth that, but I risked a couple twos. You know, because you can't function with this. You're just going to keep losing games. you're going to keep being a laughing stock, and you're going to waste a generational wide receiver. Every game that you play with Eli, you're wasting Sequin Barclay and Evan Ingram.

I don't care as much about defense anymore. The rules are not on for the 85 Bears or the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. The game has changed. Adapt or die. You can function with Derek. You can be a competitive team with Derek Carr. If somehow you got Teddy Bridgewater. but you will

you're just wasting games with this season like I'd trade for Derek tomorrow I really would or if you're listening this on Tuesday today I'd get him in here for next week like what are you waiting for like this is a joke you can't roll and you have players around him

when Gruden is throwing off the white flag he's over it like he doesn't want any of these players he wants them all gone now some of them might cost a little more but I do think that you could get Derek for less than a first round pick. And just because I can't see any teams offering a first round pick for car. But man, the giants, the two-point conversion debacle, the Eli debacle. What a just train wreck of a franchise

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Let's dive into the big trade, and let's start from the Cowboys angle. Jerry Jones, I forget exactly when he said it. I think I've referenced it on this point. podcast before. It's one of my favorite quotes ever, and I think it rings so true. I, most people to listen to this know I like business. I like the business aspect of pro sports. It's why I aspired to get out of college football into the NFL. I liked how they viewed players as assets. I liked trading. I liked the draft. I liked it all from the business standpoint, contracts, what players are actually worth instead of like college sports where you pay them

under the table. I like it when you can just pay them over the table. It's capitalism. It's, you know, I like business. I went to business school and I love sports. So I wanted to work in pro sports. Well, the great part about pro sports is trades happen. And Jerry Jones once said that I've never paid a premium and not received a premium. But the point of what a statement was was many times he's paid and thought he got a deal. Like I'm paying 50% on the dollar.

Usually when you do that, you're not receiving a great asset back. Now, Jerry paid a premium when he gave up a first round pick for Amari Cooper. It is a very bold move, and we'll get into the Raider side of it. But I'll say this. He is paying a first round pick for a player that was once drafted in the top five that came from the University of Alabama, whose first two seasons looked like he had the potential and ceiling of a guy that should be a top six, seven wide receiver.

in the NFL. Like, might even make a couple all-pro teams. The type guy that, you know, would have a hundred catch, 1,300-yard season, 12-touchdown type season in his prime. Now, it's obviously gone the other way the last couple years, but I think Jerry would tell you this over a cocktail or two. One, I had to overpay a little bit because a lot of other teams were going to get them for a second round pick.

Like, if I was the 49ers, I would offer my second round pick for him. Well, Jerry's second round pick is not going to be as good as their second round pick. I'm just using them as an example. And I think there were rumors that the Eagles were offering a second round pick. Now, the Cowboys' second round pick would probably be better in the Eagles' second round pick as it stands right now. But you never know. And maybe John Gruden just wants to deal with the Eagles. I don't know.

So Jerry said, screw it. Here is my first round pick. But I'm not trading. You also have to factor in this. like this wide receiver draft, there is not a top 10 guy in it. Depending on who you talk to, they might not be a player between 11 and 20. I like Nikiel Harry.

Watching the last couple games, his value might be diminishing a little bit. Talking to people in the South, AJ Bryant at Ole Miss, I don't know if he's very fast. He might be a pick in the 20s. And as several people that covered the Cowboys, like the Cowboys were going to take a wide receiver this year.

So they viewed it and go, Amari Cooper is like a year older and Calvin Ridley. Again, Amari Cooper's not 27 years old. He's 24. He will be 25 next year. Now you've got to factor in the money. He'll cost $14 million next season and then need a new contract.

But I know this. You know what it costs in a free agency? Jerry Jones does because he just tried to buy the top free agent wide receiver last year. It was going to cost some $16 million a season. For Sammy Freakin Watkins,

it was coming up a 30 eight catch season. That's what it was going to cost him. So he goes, I'll trade my first rounder now, get this guy in the building, and take my chances. Is it a risk? Yeah.

But at least I know I'm paying a premium for a guy that has proven to be a premium multiple times. Was in college? Was when he was coming out in the draft? Was his first two seasons? After Amari's first season, it probably would have taken a first and a third to get him.

Now, because of shit kind of going off the rails, Jerry goes, I still got to overpay a little bit because I want to get this player and I think he has a high ceiling. Here's the other thing Jerry would probably tell you over that cocktail. And if anyone knows Jerry Jones, I've only met him once, but I've heard he likes to have a couple cocktails. The Jerry might tell you, I look at Oakland and go, they're a train wreck. They're an organization that if it wasn't for me, they would have had nowhere to go. I close the Vegas deal. They're owners in shambles.

He's paid $100 million for a coach that's not very good. they've had Amari's had three offensive coordinators in three years constant turnover in Oakland there is zero like there's a long long history in my adult life since high school most players leave the Raiders and get better so Jerry would say listen I saw him Flash his ability I think I get him to Dallas which as crazy as it sounds is 50 times more stable than the Raiders I get them in our system we have a running back we have a running back we have a defense, get him in the bright lights.

I think he'll flourish. I think the Raiders were the one holding him back. I'm just saying this is how, if you're Jerry, you talk yourself into this. And you go, we had a huge draft grade him on several years ago. We think a change of scenery will do him good. He's born and raised in the South. He went to school in the South.

I know Texas isn't technically the South, but it's a more comfortable environment. He doesn't worry about, the Raiders don't even have a place to play next year. Gruden literally would trade anyone. It's not the most conducive environment towards success. And again, stability, which Amari Cooper, when he was around high-level stuff in college,

he flourished Nick Saban. When he got to the Raiders, Jack Del Rio had just been hired. They were kind of normal for a couple years. And he had success. And then it got weird. Jack Del Rio had fired Bill Musgrave, brought in Todd Downing.

Last year was a train wreck. John Gruden comes in, says he loves him, Amari, doesn't really love Amari, trades Khalil. It's just not a normal place. Did Jerry Jones overpay a little bit? Yes. But sometimes you have to overpay for something. And when you really want it, I don't think it's that crazy. Because I know this. Like I'm watching the Giants, they suck. They're going to win two or three games. I've watched the Cowboys. Well, they don't do it for me. Just, you know, they're not easy on the highs because their offense isn't great. They are a solid team.

To me, they were winning 7A games without Amari. If Amari can just mix in, they might be able to go 9 and 7. And that might sneak into the playoffs, how that might win the division. So I get where Jerry justifies this in his mind. And again, Amari's age and kind of slash underachieving, make it an easier sell if you're in the Cowboys building. Like, I don't think it's as wild as Twitter will tell you. It's like Twitter was telling me.

It was crazy that the Giants, like, no ship they should have gone for two. I'd say, I don't know about that. Just like, oh, Jerry's nuts gave up a one. Well, a year ago, Amari would have been a worth of one easy. Since then, they've had a coach that's kind of gone crazy and gone rogue. It's hard trading everyone. Hates the GM. They have a fake relationship. Every player on the team doesn't know if he's going to play or not the following game. Like, it's not really a normal environment for high-level guys to succeed. So, yeah, I thought Jerry was pretty bold. But, you know, Listen, I'm kind of an Amari fan.

I'm an Amari believer. I'm not giving up on him yet. I don't think it's that crazy of a trade. Would I have done it if I was Jerry? Maybe not. But I do understand it. And I don't think it's social media will just destroy it. I don't think it's as crazy as people are making it out to be.

Okay, before we get into the Gruden aspect of this Amari Cooper, let's talk about my friends at LinkedIn. I know a lot of people that listen to this are. either run a business, run HR elements of the business, are in charge of hiring people for said business. And we all know that we need to hire good people in any job. And the hardest thing to do is find those good people. Well, that's where LinkedIn comes in.

It's the world's largest professional network. People go to LinkedIn every day to grow professionally and discover job opportunities. 70%, I repeat, 70% of the U.S. workforce is already there. This way, if you post your job using what I'll give you here in a second, most people in the workforce see it. Do you know that the majority of people do not visit job boards? Yet most LinkedIn members, they have not recently visited those job boards, nine out of 10 of those LinkedIn members are open to new opportunities. So you can only reach them on LinkedIn. That's why a new hire is made every 10 seconds using LinkedIn.

And businesses rate LinkedIn 40% higher than job boards is delivering quality candidates. So hurry up, go to LinkedIn.com slash John and get $50 off your first job post. That's LinkedIn.com slash J-O-H-N to get $50 off your first job post. LinkedIn.com slash J-O-H-N. Go make hires easy using LinkedIn. Let's get to the Gruden aspect of this Amari Jerry deal. As I told you, I understand Jerry overpaying for Amari. Gruden, if you are willing to trade Amari Cooper,

you're obviously going to do it for a first rounder, and clearly the Cowboys were the only team willing to give them a first rounder. So a no-brainer, a good deal, and I think Gruden's getting a lot of credit. But I also think this, and I was talking to a couple people in the league today, and just around the football world. And they brought up good points. I was thinking the same thing. Like, you get rid of Khalil, you get rid of Amari.

You keep getting ding for having a bunch of old players. Like, how do you get young players? You have a young, talented player already. Like when you give him up, now you, how do you replace Amari? Do you do that in free agency? Okay, well, as I said earlier in the Cowboys example with Sammy Watkins, that player costs $16 million a year. In free agency, it is the ultimate, the ultimate buyer's market.

Excuse me, seller's market, given that the player and the agent are going to win, the team is not. Now, the team might win in the sense that they get the player on their team, but you have to overpay for them. It's why these last several years, when you've seen a lot of these guards and interior offensive linemen hit free agency, they've been paid a premium. And it's why a lot of the times their team, the Raiders have actually signed a couple. Coletio Semley at the time he was made the highest paid guard the year before. Rodney Hudson was made the highest paid center. It's not like that Reggie McKenzie knew they were good players and other teams didn't.

The entire league knew how good they were. The thing was at the time, the Raiders had all this money and they needed to pay someone. So they bought those two guys, and they were good. They also paid Bruce Irvin at the time $11 million a couple years ago, which was a lot of money. And that's what free agency costs. You have to give Bruce Irvin type guys $11 million. They gave Jordy Nelson this year like $8 million. Michael Crabtree got like $8.5 million by the Baltimore Ravens when the Raiders cut him.

Like you get paid a lot of money in free agency. So you get rid of Amari Cooper the year before. he's going to get $14 million. And John Gruden goes, well, I didn't really want to pay Amari Cooper $15 million a year. Well, eventually, you're either going to go sign that guy in free agency that you are willing to pay that. So you'd have to look at the free agent market and you go, is there going to be a free agent wide receiver that hits the market who's going to be better?

The answer is going to be no. Because as we see like Sammy Watkins, year and year out, is typically the best wide receiver type guy that hits the open market. Most guys get extended. Just look at this year. Obviously, the Mike Evans, the O'Dell Beckham Jr., never sniff free agency. And even questionable guys that have been traded back-to-back years like Brandon Cooks signed for like $55 million. So you go, okay, can we draft a guy?

Well, the Raiders now have three first-round picks. Their own, which is going to be really high. Then the Bears and the Cowboys probably end up being somewhere between 15 and 20. Well, you can take a wide receiver there. what are the chances that that guy that you take is as good as Amari Cooper? Probably not high. So I get it. And it's always great to trade for picks, but it's because the picks equal hope.

Now that pick eventually has to become a human being. Like, who do you draft? Yeah, I get it. Let's say the Raiders have the number one overall pick. And they go, we're going to take Nick Bosa, Joey's brother. Well, you just had Khalil Mack. Kaleel Mack's headed for another double-digit sax season, another all-pro, pro-ball type year. Like, that's what you had.

So if Nick is good, you actually downgraded. Now, there is also an element of cost control, and I get it, and that plays a huge role in this. But now the Raiders have this unlimited budget, like $75 million in cap space, and they got all these first-round picks, but they don't have any players. And they don't have any young players on their team. Well, they did have two young players. That the NFL just told you were worth a total of three first round picks. Like, that's the whole point of this entire endeavor. Now, I get it.

Gruden wants to hit the reset button. We have a long history of showing and it being proven that John Gruden struggles at drafting. So I do not have confidence that John Gruden's going to be able to draft good players. Now, if he can add a GM, because clearly he doesn't listen to it, General Manager Reggie McKenzie all believe they have a chance because they clearly have the capital. I tweeted out earlier today, just because you have a lot of capital, just because you win the lottery, does not mean you're going to stay rich. Isn't there the statistic? The majority of people that win the lottery go broke?

Because they don't know how, just because you have a lot of capital doesn't mean you know where to invest it. If you just walk down the street and had a million dollars in a bag and handed that million dollars cash to five different people, in just an average town. Do you think the majority of those people, or let's say 10 people, would turn that money, that million dollars into $5 million, $10 million? No, most of people would lose it,

spend it on stupid things, would waste the money. Now, I'm not saying that Gruden is just going to go waste these picks, but he's not proven to be capable and able of hitting on most draft picks. I don't trust him as a talent evaluator. I trust him as a coach. I don't even hate this deal. I get it. If you're like, I'm not big on paying Amari long term, you get a first round pick.

No brainer. I would not have trade Khalil Mack. My biggest struggle is I'm never in the business of trading high character talented guys. Now, red flag talents, high talent, red flag guys, I get it. Like, I understand it. I get trading Marcus Peters last year. I see why people kind of struggled with Brandon Cooks, even though there's never been any really public in clearly there have been issues. Like I get trading Chandler Jones when he walks into the precinct naked. I don't really quite get trading an underachieving 24-year-old player that still has an high

upside. I don't. But you can convince me. Like, I get both sides of this deal. I just don't know how the Raiders replenish this, besides just the three first round picks. You go, oh, they got three first round picks. Well, they've lost Khalil Mack and they've lost Amari Cooper. So two of those slots fill in those slots, and they gain one more young premium player.

And again, we know the hit rate on first round. They're not going to hit on all three of them. If they do hit on two of them, what are the chances that those two are pro bowlers? You know, probably another 50% gone. So it's very difficult. And they did have two players that you could work with and build around and gruden punning. So the pressure now, you know, next year is, wash to because even if you hit on

rookies, they're not going to really do much for you unless Derek is unreal again and I have no confidence that he will be. I think that Gruden got a lot of credit on Twitter today because he gave he got a first rounder for Marri Cooper. I just look at it like how are you going to get young players? You now have two holes. You've lost Khalil, you've lost

Amari. I know that you continue to sign and most of times in free agency are older players. So you're just going to continue to add older players as depth to this team. How are you going to get young players as depth? I maybe I'm just an Amari Cooper loyalist and an Amari Cooper fan, but I just, I don't know if I would have traded them, man. If we get into the mailbag, let me just go.

You know, I spend all weekend watching these games, so I might as well talk about them really quick. Just go around the league. I just pull up ESPN.com, the standings, and I'm just going to go through divisions, just hit on a couple things that stood out last weekend. start with the NFC West, the Rams' Niners game. I watched that game so you guys didn't have to.

The Rams kicked the living crap out of the Niners. Aaron Donald looked just absolutely incredible. The Rams are rolling. Todd Gurley, I know Mahomes is getting a ton of MVP buzz. To me, you could easily split this MVP between Gurley and Mahomes. That would be my vote if I was an MVP voter right now. Niners in absolute shambles. The Cardinals are terrible. Seattle had a buy.

Saints 5-1. Got a little bit lucky, obviously, with Tucker missing the extra point, you know, to win it in regulation. I do think, though, win or lose this. I just think the Saints are really good. Huge game this weekend with Minnesota will get in later this week. But, you know, the Saints have rebounded after starting 0-1. Got to give Carolina Panthers credit. They were also down big, the Eagles on the road.

Coming back, McCaffrey has been a completely different. player for his second year. I mean, he looks like a legitimate NFL running back. Give Cam his due. He's played much more consistently. Falcons and the Buccaneers, kind of crazy. It feels like both of them have a combined two wins. The Bucks are three and three somehow.

I guess they did start 2 and 0. And the Falcons are three and four. That's just a good division. Bears, pretty rough loss of the Patriots. Mitchell was terrible. I mean, he just was not very good. He misses way too many layup throws. Khalil Mack was, you know, looked like 50%.

Off that rolled ankle, their defense did not play very well. I also think it's more of an indictment, not necessarily on the Bears, but just how great the Patriots' offenses. I mean, Gronk didn't even travel. They lit them up like Christmas tree. The Lions picked them on Friday. Thought they would beat Miami. Their offense is really, really good. Give Jim Bob Cooter credit.

Give Stafford credit. Those wide receivers, they are just good. Packers had to buy. Vikings got a pretty easy win against the Jets. We knew that was coming. Again, I said when the Vikings were one, two, and one, and everyone was freaking the bleep out. Like, the Vikings, it's over.

I was like, no, they'll be fine. If they could beat the Eagles, and they did in that must-win game, they got to two-two-and-one. Then they've rattled off back-to-back wins the last two weeks. Another four-two-and-one. They're in pretty good shape with a big game this weekend. Giants are terrible.

Cowboys are right-in. this thing at three and four. Their defense is really good. But the problem is they don't have a very explosive offense. He has traded for Mari Cooper. We've obviously talked a lot about that today on the podcast. I think that all three of these teams could win the division.

I said from the jump, I thought the Redskins were pretty solid. The problem is this is probably the worst team Alex has played on in the last seven years. So more is going to be, he's going to be asked to do more as this season plays out. And that's where I think,

is going to be the difference. Like, Alex, if Alex was a really good player, like a legitimate top seven quarterback, I'd go, I think the Redskins win 11 games. But to me, he's not. And that's why I think they end up 9 and 7. I think the Eagles can end up 9 and 7. I think the Cowboys can end up 9 and 7. I view all these teams as 9 and 7 teams.

And I like J. Raiders got to buy. Broncos, we talked about the Thursday night game. Charter's got a big win. I mean, they're 5 and 2. Think about this. Last year after 7 games, they were three and four because they started 0 and 4.

They're in great position right now being 5 and 2. They're only one game back of the Chiefs, and they still have another game against the Chiefs. Now the game's in Kansas City. But at the two best teams in your division, to me, this is the best. Like Carolina and New Orleans, that's solid. But I take the Charters and Chiefs

of two teams that I could envision. I don't think they would, and I would bet against the Charters, definitely, in a big playoff game. But that doesn't mean they can't do it. Their roster is exceptional. Both will probably come back. Ingram, excuse me, I meant Melvin Gordon.

They got Melvin Ingram and Melvin Gordon. Both those two guys are just studs. Rivers has been awesome this year. Kenan Allen's a stud. Tyro Williams, their deep threat's awesome. I like both these two top teams. I mean, the Chiefs destroyed the Bengals. Chiefs are excellent.

And he just looks like he's having a blast coaching. The South, I mean, I think's terrible. I can't believe the Houston Texans are four and three. I just don't watch them and think they're very good. But you're 4 and 3 or 4 and 3. I mean, they're in position. The Titans, tough loss. I mean, your coach going for a 2-point conversion to win the game with 30 seconds left.

I don't totally love that. Not when you're a playoff team. If you're like a one-win team, I get that. But the difference between winning and losing that game, and you've just won games in overtime, like going to overtime is okay. Especially because there's a – if you're 4 and 3, you're in first place. Losing that game, you're not three and four, you're not. That was a big swing weekend.

Jacksonville Jaguire shelved themselves. Bortals finally got bench for Kessler, even though Morone came back today on Monday and said that Bortles will be there starting quarterback moving forward. Listen, they got more problems than Bortals. You drafted Leonard Fornet in the top five to be your dude. And last year, for the most part, he was their dude. This year he disappeared.

I mean, his hamstring injury, whatever, something weird's going on. They had a trade for Carlos Hyde, who's actually having a solid season. but he's not Leonard Fortet. I mean, that derails their whole team, and then obviously their defense has not played up to snuff. The Cleveland Browns, Hugh Jackson established himself again. Worst coach in the NFL. How he still has a job is just beyond me.

I think I wouldn't question this because it's the Browns, and there's just so much dysfunction in that building. But I think Baker Mayfield has looked a little pedestrian. The Ravens, that's a pretty devastating loss. You were in full control. To have him miss the PAT, I mean, it's weird. to say this, but I mean, the kicker on the Ravens is one of their best players. Tucker feels automatic anytime he kicks it from anywhere on the field.

So that's a pretty devastating loss. The Bengals just got their ass kicked and the Steelers did not play. The bills are terrible. The Jets, but the Jets are like every other week. You know, so two weeks ago, they kick ass. This week, they look terrible. Next week, they'll probably be good. They're just a roller coaster, and that's what happens when you have a star rookie quarterback.

and you don't have much talent around them. It's just going to be a roller coaster ride. The Dolphins got problems. I mean, the Brockett ship is their quarterback. Now they play the Texans, who I was just blasting the Texans who are four and three, but they're playing the Miami Dolphins with Osweiler on Thursday night. They'll probably be five and three.

So if you're five and three, you're pretty solid. And the dolphins will probably be, I mean, they will be because they'll lose. They'll be four and four. And then we got the Patriots who are just going to cruise to another 12 and 4, 13, and 3. season. Okay, let's get to Middilkoff mailbag. Longtime listeners, you guys know how to get in. Just slide up into my DMs at John Middilcoff, and I will answer the questions. He's got about 40 unread questions. I'm going to start banging them out. The only way you can get out of a hole,

a wise man once told me, is drop the shovel. Here we go. My question, do you still have Odell Beckham as an elite top five wide receiver? I do. I don't blame him for the problems. I've blame Eli Manning. As you saw it in night on Monday night football, he still looks awesome. Just explosive speed. He's the total package. I got no, O'Dell kind of

drives you nuts, you know, the fighting, kicking nets, and the AC units on the sideline and some of his outbursts and you're talking with Josina about stuff that you'd rather have him not talk about, but at the end of the day, he is an elite player. If Antonio Brown's one and Hopkins is two, Julio probably three

I mean he's four I mean he's right there he is a he's an elite player I still don't understand how Clay Matthews has a job he does nothing it's comparable to Eli being finished but been about the same amount of years

yeah I I think there's something to be said for they just really like Clay Matthews you know like he's just a good team guy they like having them around the operation they've never really been able to replace them even though they have tried, but I'm with you. I mean, he's just not a very good player.

Try hard guy at this point in time in his career, because he was excellent. When I first got in the NFL in 2010, it was the year the Packers won the Super Bowl. We played him twice. First game of the season, he knocked out Kevin Cobb, and that's how Michael Vick started starting, and then we played him in the playoff game. I mean, he was unreal that season. Like 2010, 2011, 2012, I remember seeing him live in a game in 2013 when he destroyed Colin Kaepernick on the sideline of a candlestick game.

That was a game. I think the 49ers won like 28 to 27, just an unreal regular season NFL game. But man, Clay Matthews was an excellent player. Like he really was a fantastic player for everyone that makes fun of them a lot. And I kind of do now too. He really was a good player. So I do think they value that. They value standing by guys.

But it is the NFL. And the quicker you cut bait, the more freedom you. you have to use that money to sign other players. So yeah, they have definitely held on too long. Hey John, huge fan of the podcast. I make sure to listen. I'm a New Jersey and somehow a lifelong Niner fan. Wanted your thoughts on something I've noticed watching the Niners?

Defense this year. I'm not an X's nose fan, never played football. I'm mostly nerd stats guy. But even I have noticed when the Niners defense is defending in the Red Zone, they almost are always in zone coverage. WTF, does Sala keep doing that? Rogers abused them last night. This shows you how far I'm behind.

I'm almost a week behind. Mahomes a couple weeks ago, it drives me nuts. I understand they don't have a whole lot of talent on defense, especially in the secondary, but it seems dumb to constantly play zone in the red zone and you give up touchdowns. I just want to see Ruben destroying people in the red zone, blah, blah, blah. Appreciate your time reading this.

That was a long question. Listen, I don't pretend to be Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells when it comes to this. I do know the majority of what they do on that defense is playing in-zone coverage. To play man coverage on the goal line, you would think in theory, if you were ever going to play man coverage, if you're at like the five-yard line, your guy should be able to cover for basically 15 yards. The field is then wider than it is deep. If you are in zone coverage, smart offensive players can find little areas to sit and good quarterbacks, like you said, Rogers or Mahomes, are going to be able to know where to beat you

in zone coverage. Where in man coverage, again, in theory, if you have DBs, it should be a little more difficult to play. Listen, I'm probably the wrong guy to answer that question right or wrong. I just think at the end of the day, the Niners personnel on defense, especially in the secondary is atrocious. So whether you play man coverage, whether you play zone coverage, if you are playing a good quarterback, C.C. Aaron Rogers, he is going to abuse you in the red zone.

Like if the 49ers play a guy like a Peyton Manning in his prime, the Phillip Rivers, those type guy, it's just not a fair fight. You know, I'd argue it's not even a fair fight if you have elite defensive players in 2018 because of the rules. But when your talent on defense is. below average and you are playing top 10 quarterbacks, you're going to get beat. It's just, I mean, it's easy to blame Robert Sala. It's the way football works.

You always blame the coordinators. But I think the Niners, defensive personnel is borderline, just putrid atrocious, God-awful. I mean, they're not covering anyone, whether Vince Lombardi, Bill Belichick, or Robert Sala is their coach. John, question. I have is about Oakland. With the full fire sale going on in Oakland, do you think Gruden is sharing his vision of the team going forward with Derek Carr to keep him engaged? Thanks, Michael.

That is a good question. This question was asked before Amari was traded. When Amari was traded a day, I read that they pulled him off the practice field because the Raiders are coming off a buy, so they practice on Monday. Players on the team did not, they just thought he was yanked off for whatever. they did not know what happened until after. Gruden did not say anything to the team. Didn't say a word. And they found out after the fact.

So now, obviously, why he doesn't owe any of the players on the team an explanation. I do think there is a chance that he has talked with Derek about why he traded Khalil Mack. If he didn't ask him what he thought about Amari Cooper, I do think they would talk about it after. Now, as I'm recording this, I have heard. there is a chance Derek gets traded. I know John immediately pooh-poot it and shot it down. But I don't know if he treats him like, you know, the Warriors would with Steph Curry.

I do think he talks to him a little differently than every other player just from the fact that they meet a lot. They talk every day. They spend so much time together as the offensive coordinator and the head coach. And again, Gruden can be a professional bullshit shit artist, but he has said over and over and over and over again his admiration and his desire to coach Derek, to want to get Derek better, and if Derek fails, that's a reflection on him. So the more I'm talking myself into it, I think it'd be a little crazy and dumb for

Gruden not to just talk it through with Derek. I mean, you're only as strong as you're starting quarterback and just his confidence. So, yeah, I'm sure they've exchanged some words over it. Okay, love the pod. Avid Bill's fan, I'm pulling for Josh Allen, however, his performance has been underwhelming to say the least. Yeah, it's been a rough Josh Allen season. Obviously, the bills should have had a better plan to learn and develop on the sideline.

I agree. But instead, the bills went with the plan of the interception machine, machine Peterman and AJ McCarran. I know it's not a far-fetched idea with almost no precedent in the NFL, but is there any chance the bills would draft another first round quarterback in the upcoming draft to either replace or compete with Allen? I would say slim than none, especially because their pick is more than likely going to be in the top 10. Part of drafting Allen, and this was always the motto where I went to college at Cal Poly, and I do think it's very true. It rings true, and it has my entire life. learn by doing.

And I do believe that it's never been easier to teach quarterbacks through experience than right now. Though I do agree with what you're saying in the sense that no quarterback in recent memory that was drafted as high needed a redshirt year more than Josh Allen. But you knew what you were getting. You knew he was a major project. You were going to live, like his statistics in college were terrible. he wasn't going to come to the NFL and light it up like a Christmas tree.

I mean, no one expected him to go Pat Mahomes 22 touchdowns through the first seven games of the NFL season. You knew what you were getting in with. I think you just got to live with it. I think it's not a far-fetched idea because I do think people have talked about it. I just think there is zero chance, like literally zero. I'd say negative chance that the bills would do that. Because part of drafting a young quarterback is by year two, year three,

you want to use all these other assets, whether it's your draft pick, whether it's free agency money, to build around him and try to have an excellent team to try to win while he's on his rookie contract. But I like thinking outside the box. Look at me, sliding right into your DMs. Feels good to be in here. Glad to have you here. Diehard Lions fan.

And I'm struggling to figure out what their future looks like. Do their wins over the Pat's Packers, you can also add the dolphins now, mean Patricia will have the team trending in the right direction, or will they continue to be the same old lions? I do think the division is just playing out to be really difficult. You know, the Packers might be the least talented team in the division, but they do have Aaron Rogers.

And, I mean, say what you want about it. Mike McCarthy has a long resume of winning. The Bears have a lot more talent to me than the Lions and even the Packers, but Trubisky is a quarterback. The Lions defense is a major question mark. I know there was, I didn't read the article, but I saw a headline like Zigianza said he would wish his injuries on no one. Clearly it sucks to be Ziggy Onse.

He constantly gets hurt. But their defense is, isn't that talented, but their offense, I'm telling you. Detroit's one of my favorite offense in the league. They light you up throwing the ball. All their running backs can catch. And Kerry on Johnson can actually run the ball, the rookie from Auburn. So same old lions.

I mean, the same old, the Stafford Lions have been really competitive. They've made the playoffs, I think three times in this career. They've been eight and eight, nine and seven a couple other times. Like, I think they can go nine and seven and compete, you know, for that wild card spot, like down the stretch in December. Honestly, they're kind of growing on me. You know, I crushed Patricia and everyone did. The backwards hat looking like a slob.

He's turned that bad boy around and, you know, the team's playing pretty good. What's up, John? Really enjoy the podcast. The way things are going this year, it looks like the Raiders are locked to have a top five draft pick. Could you see them taking Herbert and moving on from Carr? If so, what would his trade value be? I think I talked a little bit about this earlier in the pod. I think you get maybe two-toes for him.

him, maybe a second and a third. I don't think you could probably get a first round pick, given that next year he makes over $20 million. He hasn't played that well. I do think I hear this consistently from people in college, that I guess college, meaning college scouts, people that have gone through Oregon. There is a massive, massive question mark

whether Justin Herbert will come out. Right now, many people believe that he will not. So I don't necessarily just think that he's a lock to come out. I think he should, because I do think he'd be the number one overall pick, but I don't know if it's going to happen. Now, if you got the number one overall pick and he did come out and you really liked him, then it would make sense to trade car. It probably, in a perfect world, unless you can get a one now,

wouldn't make sense for you to do anything with Carr until the off season and just see where you land in the draft and what quarterbacks declare. So I'd say 50-50, just because it's always with Gruden, you never know. but I don't know. I'm starting to think that Justin Herbert won't come out. Why can't Julio Jones score a damn touchdown? He is too good. Ironically, he didn't score again tonight.

I don't know. It is pretty wild. He's an absolute monster. He's one of the best wide receivers I've ever seen. He's just not good. He just doesn't score in the red zone. Whether that's Sark, whether that's Maddie Ice, rather that's Julio.

He's had some bad drops in the end zone. I don't know. It's weird. I can't even pretend to explain it. It's really an all. I think, honestly, it's an all-time just like outlier anomaly. Because you watch Julio, you go, this guy's incredible.

There's no reason he shouldn't be scoring, and he just doesn't score. Okay, here's one. The last one of the night. This isn't a shot at Rogers. We all know he's incredible, but he needed a comeback win to beat the awful Niners. He has a top three-0 line,

Devante Adams, and other good offensive players. We all know how good he is, but I think we baby him a little bit and people put him in the goat conversation it blows my mind what do you think I like this question Connor I think he is babyed a little bit at this point

because he went from like oh he's criminally underrated he's criminally underrated then he established himself as his elite player and then he kind of gets excuses for him I think he gets somewhat of the LeBron treatment for like the first five or six years of LeBron's career he was treated unfairly by the media Then he got over the hype and everyone just acknowledged his greatness.

Now it almost feels like you can't criticize him. Like LeBron didn't try on defense. LeBron's not a good free throw shooter. Like Aaron kind of freelances at times. Aaron's not the easiest guy to coach. Aaron hasn't always got along with his teammates. Now we judge Aaron almost differently. Like there's no disputing he's one of in my, I'm 34.

I did not get to see Marino and Elway beside like YouTube in my prime sports watching years. But from everyone I've ever talked to, the way they talk about Marino and Elway kind of describe like Rogers. Just all time, you just knew it when you saw it. It was incredible. Like, go, I didn't watch Montana

really live, besides like the cheese. But YouTube Montana, really what he hung his hat on was being cool, calm, and collected, was incredibly accurate, especially in big moments. But his physical attributes weren't great. He's actually kind of short, didn't have a great arm. Like, Rogers,

What's the knock on him? He is a little short. I mean, he doesn't have ideal quarterback height. Elite arm, elite accuracy, elite pocket mobility. I mean, he's elite in all these qualities. But for some reason when you're watching, especially the last couple years, like I don't necessarily blame him for those years right after the Super Bowl

when his defense was atrocious. But I think these last three or four years, it's almost like he started listening to like how good he was. And I think it was hard for Mike in the offensive stage. staff to coach. He's not the easiest player to play with, despite how great he is. So I do agree he is babyed a little. And to me, he'd be right on the borderline of the top five. But I'm with you. I couldn't even begin to put him in the goat conversation. I would probably, I might even have him below Marino. And I'd say Marino is the best quarterback by far in the top four or five

ranking that did not win a Super Bowl. And I know Aaron. one, one. But I will say this for Aaron. If Aaron never wins another Super Bowl, and maybe the Marino Com's bad, I will view Aaron a little bit like Peyton Manning. Like, even though Peyton Manning didn't earn his last Super Bowl, he was atrocious and the defense carried him to that.

I always viewed Peyton Manning like he was a two Super Bowl guy. Like, I do hope Aaron gets another one, because I've watched his whole career, and he's bet, like, he should have multiple Super Bowls. You know, like Aaron Rogers, when he stands up there at Camer, in Ohio and he retires. He should have multiple Super Bowls on his resume. I'm starting to think, I don't know if by any means that's a lock anymore.

He can't stay healthy. His team's kind of underachieve. His division is just really good. The NFC is stacked and not going away. It's going to be really hard. So I'm with you. I do think he's definitely babied a little bit. The one guy that's been consistently critical of him over the years

and been proven right for the most part was Colin. And I've always thought he's probably a little better than Colin ever believe. But I did agree with Colin that like you can't treat him with kids like Brady doesn't get treated with kids gloves. You know, Brady gets the heat man. When he, when it comes, Rogers kind of is pretty sneaky and avoiding it.

But I do think if they were to miss the playoffs again this year, McCarthy would clearly lose his job. And this wouldn't be, it'd be somewhat of a blemish on Rogers' great resume. That's going to do it for the Middle Coff mailback. Slide up in my DM. You can always ask questions there. Thanks again for you. for listening and I will see you Friday on three and out podcast with me.

It's John Middlecock. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo and every episode we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff.

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Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Michelle McPhee, and I've been unraveling the strangest criminal alliance I've ever reported on. A Mormon polygamist and an Armenian businessman. Multi-million dollar house, Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, a billion dollar fraud. But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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