The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Middlekauff - 3 & Out - NBA vs. NFL Drafts; Aaron Rodgers/LaFleur red flags; Michael Thomas contract; AFC East Over/Unders; Mailbag

Episode Date: June 21, 2019

Subscribe here to the 3 and Out with John Middlekauff Podcast https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff/id1352730623?mt=2. In this episode, Middlekauff explains why a recent article proposing eliminating pro sports drafts would be a disaster for the NFL, why Aaron Rodgers undermining new head coach Matt LaFleur is a bad sign of things to come, why Michael Thomas' contract should have no impact on Amari Cooper's new deal, looks at the AFc East Over/Unders, and answers listener questions in Middlekauff's Mailbag. Follow John on twitter @JohnMiddlekauff and go to www.theherdnow.com to find the latest content. Subscribe now! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

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The NBA draft is a night. And there was an article that came out by this guy on ESPN about how the NBA draft, you know, I don't know if it's hurting the sport, you know, because all these NBA players are unhappy and basically should they abolish the draft. I have some takes on that because I do think it intertwines with the NFL. Rogers had some interesting quotes about Matt LaFleur and the offense. Got to dive into that because I typically judge people by actions, not words. Your words are hollow to me, unless you're like my wife or my kid or something.

But when I judge you, I strictly judge you by actions. But I think there's something to the words that are coming out of Green Bay. Then the Michael Thomas is about to get paid. It looked like it was going to happen a couple days ago. The Star Receiver for the Saints hasn't happened yet. now it looks like they're kind of far apart. I've seen a lot of people say it impacts Amari Cooper. I kind of dove into the numbers.

I don't really see how that is the case. And then I was thinking about doing something this offseason, maybe every show picking a division and going over the over-under wins. And today we'll start on the East Coast and work west. I start with the AFC East. Next show we'll do the NFC East and we'll just kind of work like that, help us get through the summer a little bit. And then, of course, the Middilcoff mailbag.

I answer your questions on the show. We interact on this show through social media. At John Middlecough is my Instagram handle. You slide up in those DMs and I answer your questions. Pretty simple. All my Instagram Twitter handles are all the same. It's just my name. See, all the time.

It's easier to get a hold of me through Twitter or Instagram than it is by calling because unless I have your number in my phone, I will not pick up if you call. It's not the way it works. But let's start with this. There was an article on ESPN about the NBA draft. and Kevin Ardivitz, a super smart guy. Basically, the NBA has a happiness problem and all their players are unhappy,

despite making historic amount of money. I mean, most NBA players, especially the highly paid ones, and Harrison Barnes has turned down $25 million. Now he's going to get a longer-term deal, but he turned down $25 million. Al Horford, who's 33 years old, turned down 30. So these guys, they're living in a different stratosphere except for like NFL quarterbacks. Well, there's an unhappy problem in the NBA,

which in the NFL, there's an unhappy problem only for the guys who don't get paid. Once they get paid, people are happy. But Kevin Ardivis wrote to this article that basically said that maybe part of their unhappy problem is a lot of people are playing for teams that they did not want to play for. And the big reason why is because of the draft.

They don't get to choose where they go. Like me or you, when I graduated from Cal Poly, and I didn't want to, let's say I got a business degree. If I wanted to work in finance, I could try to get a job with Chase, with Wells Fargo, with Bank of America, and I could essentially pick where I wanted to go, in theory. Now, you know, they probably wouldn't want to hire me. But I would imagine many people listening to this coming out of college, you might have had a couple options. And you're like, well, I can move to San Diego and work for this, or I can work for the Bay and work for this.

Or let's say you went to Penn State. I can go to New York and do this, or I can move to Philadelphia and do this. Where in the NBA and the NFL for this argument, I don't really count baseball because no one knows the draft there. Their draft doesn't matter to their sport in terms of fan interest. Now, big picture, obviously, it impacts it. But I'm just talking in the NBA and in the NFL,

when you draft a guy, that guy is playing in the pros immediately. So it's a huge part of the business model. and it's also a big reason where all the cash comes from. I think too often the media loses touch with this, and I think the media is the worst at this, almost as bad as the players, is that I hope everyone understands that every freaking penny of everything we do,

whether you're a coach, whether you're a player, all that money, whether you're doing what I do, comes from sports fans. And their value, in 2019, with media rights has never been more valuable just sitting on the couch. Their time and them just watching your sport has never meant more to the bottom line. And right now basketball and definitely the NFL depend on these media rights deals of selling their television product. And obviously that's changing as Facebook and Netflix are surely to come.

but the reason those people pay so much money, literally every penny that goes to a player or hell to mean in the media, it all comes from people listening and watching. Without those people, there is no business model. And for definitely in my business, and 100% of the league's business, the draft is a big part of fan interest

because it sells hope. It sells, it's just kind of cool. You're getting a new player. So the big reason these players like Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, all these guys can make 30, 40 million. Again, is because of the mass amount of people that watch and consume the sport. They drive literally every penny into the pie. Every single penny comes from fans. Because if those fans did not watch, did not consume the sport, the media companies wouldn't pay top dollar if no one was watching, obviously, right?

if people were not attending your games down the road chase paid Joe Lacob and the Warriors enormous amount of monies to have the naming rights Levi Stadium not far down the road cheap for me paid Jed York huge cash I remember Jerry Jones was asked

why did you name your building AT&T stadium and his answer was simple I'm a horror they paid the most Well, the reason they were willing to pay so much is because it was the Dallas freaking cowboys who have more fans than any team in the NFL. They would not have paid that much for the Jacksonville Jaguars. It all comes down to people. And the draft has interest.

And I'll say this for the NBA, they're clearly adding a couple of these like Todd McShay types. ESPN definitely did to kind of their repertoire to talk about these players because we can't get enough of it. We've been like this with the NFL draft forever. now we're kind of really diving deep into the NBA draft. Now it's a little different because you don't know the players once you get past 15. But there's always interests in draft. Because the one thing with a draft conversation, sports fans talk about it forever. We're still talking about where Tom Brady got drafted.

But even lower players, like if you're, you know, the Saints, and we'll talk about him a little later. Michael Thomas, you got it, you didn't even have to draft him in the first round. Right? We got Richard Sherman in the fifth. You just talk about these things forever. So the draft is a huge part of the vernacular, how we discuss the sport, the interest of the sport. It's a key cog to the business model of the money-making machines that are these leagues. And they directly impact the cash and no players are making more cash than the NBA players.

So any NBA player with a brain says that's the dumbest idea. Luckily for the NFL, it never comes up. Because the thing with the NFL, players are just naturally pretty happy the moment they get paid. I don't know why the NBA has like an anger problem. Maybe it's because they've jumped the shark on paying these guys. Too many guys that aren't worth it are getting severely overpaid. They have really become kind of the elitist league, in my opinion. They're like basically basketball has a golf field to it now.

Only the super rich can get in. Only the super rich can enter the country club. Have you seen the prices to go to an NBA game? The average guy, the average guy in America makes like 50 grand. You think he can afford to pay $500 to take his kid to a game? No. It's that people are just not going to NBA games. I mean, I get the NBA package.

I watch the games. A lot of empty seats. People can't afford to go. So, and probably not that much different with the NFL. These games are really expensive. But your value, you don't even need to go to the games. Hell, they want you to just watch the games. That's why the NFL is so big when you hear people.

talking about in the media all the time, ratings, ratings, ratings, ratings, ratings, ratings, because it pays for everything. Literally everything. I mean, Mark Davis has no money, yet the Raiders get a $250 million check every year from the league. Do you think that money just comes from the sky? No. It comes from ABC, or it comes from CBS, Fox, and ESPN ABC. It's where the cash comes from. Like the main checks, the media rights. Same thing with the, where do you think all the NBA money? LeBron, you think the money just becomes because you're just LeBron James? No. Well, obviously you are LeBron James, but it's because ESPN and TNT are paying the league an astronomical amount of money, and that means your max is $37 million.

That's where the cash comes from. And the reason they're paying that much money is because they think, or they have the data, the amount of people that are watching. And it's large, right? It's by far the largest audience going right now are live sporting events. especially in the NFL, which is the cream of the crop, and then the NBA, which is second. But it's all based on fans. And what do fans eat up?

They love the NFL draft. Well, if you love the NFL draft, even if you're not that big of an NBA guy, you still kind of check it out because it's a draft. It's sweet. It's cool. It drives interest, which in turn drives money. That's the point of this whole thing.

This is not a charity. This whole thing is about making money. So these guys can be unhappy. That's their problem. Like put a smile on your face. Throw on some Tony Robbins or something. That's a you problem. No one in this country and this society is going to feel bad for humans making $25 million a year.

That's not the way. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines.

We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade

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And on my podcast, The Clivert Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What?

Time out. Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, rep, mom, I'm a one. I want you to wave at her. What? Where's she at? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Will Farrell's Big Money Players and IHart Podcasts presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend, Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely.

Now a redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip, just a little bit bigger hips, wider. This is a podcast. We're recording. it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey with all the snacks and drink sidebar why did you get hard

seltzer instead of beer they had a bogo well then you got it do you want a white color or something here just take it oh what are y'all doing microphones are you making a rap album I would come on I would buy it cuts through the defense like a hot knife through

sponge cake that sounds delicious oh you're lucky I'm not a drug addict you're like I'm not an alph You're lucky I'm not a killer. I love this team and I'm really trying to be a figure in their lives that they can rely on. Listen to soccer moms on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. America works and it never will. So if they're going to keep feeling sorry for themselves waiting for fans to like have their back, no.

I get the NBA is more of the player empowerment league. The NFL is more of the management league. There's a reason in my, and I have a theory. The reason the NFL is working much better than the NBA, well, there's several reasons. But one of the main reasons, it's a team first league. And we all grow up as fans, and I've talked about this on previous podcast. I get so many of your guys' DMs now for the Middlecoff Mailback at John Middilcoff

is my Instagram handle. We grow up regionally. I grew up in the Bay Area. Who'd I grow up rooting for? Well, Steve Young and Jerry Rice were down the street for me. Of course I rooted for them. I wasn't that far away from the Sacramento Kings. Like the Sacramento Kings.

Samfiscoe Giants had Barry Bonds. Root for Barry Bonds. If I had been born in Cincinnati, I'd probably be a Bengals and a Reds fan, right? And I'd probably root for the Kentucky Wildcats or the Louisville Cardinal. You're just born and you grow up rooting for, like I went to Cal Football games.

Still kind of a cow football fan. Just the way the world works. It's all regionally. I think we think it's like a players league. Yeah, we like players. But when a guy leaves our team and we get a new guy, we're going to end up watching our team.

Not that if you have a soft spot for a guy, you're not going to keep a track on them. But at the end of the day, we root for teams. And the reason we root for those teams is because we want that team to win. And the drafts are a big part of why these teams win. If you nail draft picks, your team wins. It's why we're so locked in. It's why the draft does huge ratings. So abolishing the draft is the dumbest idea I've ever heard.

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Did you know every week nearly 40 million job seekers visit LinkedIn? Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com slash reach. That's LinkedIn.com slash reach to post your job. job for free. Terms and conditions apply. Okay, let's get into Aaron Rogers and his new coach, almost said Mike McCarthy, Matt LaFleur. And there were some things said over this last week that kind of, I think, raised some eyebrows, raise my eyebrows. And I try to judge everything, every person, every entity, a business, whatever, on actions, not words. Because words mean nothing to me.

Like all the Silicon Valley and all the leaders in the Bay Area, love to kind of hang their hat on this kind of liberal umbrella. Like, we're here for everybody. Yeah, we don't build low-income housing in this area. We don't build new housing. The Bay Area has a housing crisis. And all these quote-unquote liberal communities consistently refuse to build any new homes. So it's like, yeah, we talk a big game.

We don't really live it. A lot of frauds around where I'm. live. A lot of frauds. But we get a good rap because, again, our leaders in Silicon Valley will tweet a big game. But I see it, people have nowhere to live, and they can't afford to live. It's actually pretty sad.

I saw it last year, and this guy was kind of a lightning rod in Colin Kaepernick. Remember when it was like, God, he might sign. Pete Carroll got in front of a microphone and said, I think Colin Kaepernick's a starting quarterback. Well, Pete, if you think he's a starting quarterback, Well, you have a starter, but wouldn't you want your backup quarterback to also be a starting

Capernick? Or, I mean, a starting quarterback? Well, what did Pete Carroll do? Not sign calling Capernick. So, hey, Pete, I don't believe what you said. I don't believe that you believed what you said. Again, like Silicon Valley, sounded good on paper, really hollow in reality. So when I looked at these comments, I don't try to put much stock into just comments,

but when it comes from this team and when you factor in the context of what they're saying, I go, this raises some red flags. Because when you look at Matt LaFleur, he had a pretty good, an interesting comment. He said, we're running a system I first picked up while working for Kyle Shanahan in Houston, more than a decade ago. And we've never really had a quarterback who's had complete freedom to change plays at the line. You go, ooh, because that's not really the way the opposite. offense is set up. But I mean, this is Aaron Rogers. He's had a lot of freedoms in those calls,

and deservedly so. Now, how do we reconcile that? We get to a place where he put him in the best position to succeed. So, bottom line, the Packers hired a coach who was bringing a philosophy that you see work with Jared Goff checking me at the line of scrimmage, with Jimmy Garoppolo, it's Kyle Shanahan's offense. Even Matt Ryan, if you remember that first year, Kyle with Matt Ryan, Matt's like, I don't like this offense. By the second year, he adapted that kick as. Obviously, Matt Schaubb in Houston all those years, you just do what the coaches tell you, and he did it fine.

But this is not some, give the quarterback a bunch of freedom, and let them make plays. That's not the way this offense works. That's just not it. So Aaron Rogers said, and this is what went, whoa, again, words don't mean anything, but it's pretty clear kind of where

we're headed. It's a conversation in progress. I don't, this is Aaron Rogers. I don't think you want to ask me to turn off 11 years, and again, Aaron Rogers is a little bit of elitist, super smart, of recognizing defenses. We have a number of check with me's in the line of scrimmage. It's just the other stuff that's really not many people in this league can do. That's not like a humble brag or anything.

That's just a fact. There aren't many people that can do at the line of scrimmage what I've done over the years. God, Aaron's feeling himself here. And he's right. I mean, obviously, Brady can. Peyton Manning could do it. Drew Breeze can do it. Mahomes, one day will be able to do it.

Rothesberger has run the two-minute drill for years. There are a few of us who've just done it. It's kind of second nature. And that's the icing on the cake, and I can do what I can do in this offense. So here's the thing. Aaron Rogers, if I came into your business and you'd been doing something at a high level

where you didn't need to be micromanaged, and then I immediately start micromanaging, though you needed a new boss, but the one thing you did really well, then I start micromanaging, there's going to be a problem. So, like, you come in to Aaron Rogers, you fly kind of like a, you know, parachute in.

The Packers needed a new coach. I'm not. I've never argued that. It was time for a change. But this is an area, and I think this reflects, what's his name, Mike Murphy, Mark Murphy, whatever the hell his name is,

and the GM Gutikins, when you hire this coach and you're bringing this type offense, like the best thing you have going for you is Aaron Rogers. Well, this offense is kind of, going to be weird for Rogers in parts of it because it doesn't give him any control at the line of scrimmage. So you're almost neutralizing or negating one of his most powerful characteristics and attributes as a player. Being able to identify stuff because the one thing no one would ever argue, Aaron Rogers is really smart. Now sometimes too smart for his own good,

but like he's saying here, again, humble, brag, arrogant, whatever, he's right. Like this is something that Peyton Manning, Brady, Breeze, and me do. You know, we're smarter than everyone we're playing. So of course you give us more freedom at the line of scrimmage. And the coach, again, like, it's not even words versus actions or whatever. He's like, the reality of this offense, that's not the way the offense works. Now, I don't know enough about the intricacies. I think it's just pretty simple. You get to the line of scrimmage, you run that play. Maybe if there's a look that you don't like, you can check it to the other side, or if it's a run, you can flip it to a pass or vice versa. It's kind of basic that way. And that's the one thing all these guys say.

say, and I've been around a lot of them now with the 49ers with Kyle, the hardest part about the offense is the verbiage. Once you get the offense, it's not really that complicated. But the thing is, it's not like some super freedom, you know, a lot of freedom to the players in this offense. It's very, like, every yard is serious. Like what yard you break off the routes at, what yard, you know, you hit your aiming point is as a running back for some of the zone running stuff.

It's very detail-oriented. And I think Rogers goes, one of the things we've kind of hung our hat on was kind of being an artist almost, having a little freedom in this offense. And I think the Patriots have proven you can kind of do the best of both worlds. But the one thing the Patriots have had really over the last 10 years is a lot of continuity. You know, they had McDaniels, then O'Brien came in, then McDaniels came back. They haven't had like all these new coaches. Well, this is an extreme shift, right? You're going from McCarthy now to this.

And again, you're taking a huge flyer that LaFleur even knows what he's doing. Because we're yet to even prove that he knows what he's doing. But when I think I would imagine Packer fans, because you're like, you don't want a problem, you're just going to go, hey, everyone, pump the brakes. And I typically am on board with that. Because, again, words, life lesson from this 34-year-old, wise man talking into a microphone right now,

unless it's like your wife or your child or your parents. And even then, depending on your relationship, you should always have the intent. Words don't mean anything. Obviously, most of my, you know, I see where you guys are listening. from and have a decent idea of the demo. You guys are smart, successful people in business.

You know, there's a reason we do contracts, right? Because we got to force action. Your words mean nothing. But the one is pretty clear where these words, where we're headed. Like, how is LaFleur going to completely change? This is why he was hired to run this offense. And Aaron Rogers is already saying it kind of neutralizes what I do best. I got a red flag the moment I watched his press conference.

I have another red flag on it right away. and I got another curveball for you. I was at dinner the other, like a week ago, with a buddy from the NFL, and we were just BS and having a few pops and just talking about the league or whatever. And I was like, God, LaFleur was Achilles tear, and he's like, man, that is a big deal. He's like, that limits what you can do on the practice field. You can't get around because you're on this roller. You're just not going to be as active, especially when you're the offensive coordinator.

Now, I get it was only OTAs, but we'll see how healthy. We're talking about the coach's health. can he walk around when they go to OTAs or is he still on the roller? Because if he's still on the roller, it's going to be difficult. Again, it's just, I don't know if you've ever been to a practice. Even if you've never been to an NFL practice, if you've just been to a high school practice. All kind of the same.

Like the coaches do have to be able to move around, especially the head coach slash offensive coordinator. So that's something to keep an eye on. Again, I don't want to say I'm out on the Packers because that'd be foolish. They have Aaron Freak and Rogers. But I am, I'm leaning to leave. and if they start slow, I will be big time out.

I didn't like the hire from the beginning. I already don't like the disconnect between the quarterback and the coach. And the words seem like the actions and the reality that's going to come this fall could be kind of ugly. And that would be gross negligence from the management because when you have a quarterback like this and you've paid them all this money, to even potentially go down this road would be a disaster.

Okay, let's get to contracts. I think the one thing we all know when it comes to do NFL contracts, they're all based on comps. Like anything in life. You buy a condo, it's based on other condos in the building. I mean, it's just basic business, right? And in football, like the condos, it's square footage, right? How many bathrooms, you know, buy a home, how many rooms? In football, if you're comparing wide receivers, they have some go-to stats.

how many years you've been in the league, how many catches you have, how many touchdowns, how many yards, basic stuff. So the rumor that's coming out is that Michael Thomas is going to sign become the highest paid wide receiver in the NFL. I like Michael Thomas. Beast. Can't guard Mike, I think is his Twitter handle. He's a badass. I like him a lot. And I've seen a lot of media people write, this is really going to impact Amari Cooper. I went, okay. I obviously have some thoughts on that. So I just wrote down their catches, their yards, and their touchdowns.

And I look at Michael Thomas. He has more catches, slightly less yards, two less touchdowns. 321 catches, 3,787 yards, and 23 touchdowns. Amari, 278 catches, 3,900 yards, and 25 touchdowns. And then I realized Michael Thomas has been in the league for a year less. That's four years worth of Amari. And that's only three years worth of Michael Thomas.

So you go, I'm pretty sure Michael Thomas is the vastly superior player on paper. And I like Amari Cooper. I'm a big Amari Cooper fan. I think what he was in Dallas when he got there and what he was with the Raiders, his first couple years, is what Amari Cooper can be.

But when Michael Thomas signs his contract, let's say for $20 million a year. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama,

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And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the middle health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch.

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growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, IHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. What's up, guys? This is Clever Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff.

like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Quarterback on office blue 42. Hey, rec, my mama want you to wave at her.

What? Hey, Ms. Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. American soccer is about to explode. The World Cup is coming. Ramos sending on to Ernie Stewart.

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If you're going to look at stats and numbers, he has no shot at making this World Cup team. And the truth about the U.S. national team. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if our team ends up in the quarterfinals or potentially a great run into the semifinals. The World Cup is almost here. Experience it all with us. Listen to Inside American Soccer with Tom Bogart and Tab Ramos on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast. There's no way Amari Cooper sniffs that money. To me, unless he eventually hits free agency, because free agency is an inflated market.

So if Amari Cooper truly wants to get huge cash, he's got to pull up. of Sammy Watkins. Now, Sammy Watkins became a free agent because I guess the Rams at the time who had traded for him didn't pick up his fifth year option. So Amari Cooper, which this year is on his fifth year option, play out the season, because Dallas is going to have to do two things.

They're either going to have to franchise tag you or let you hit free agency. And if you hit free agency, we saw what happened with Sammy Watkins. Like I said, he got $60 million a year. And Amari Cooper has much better stats than Sammy Watkins. But right now, if they're both going to sign

contracts, going into like the year before their free agent year, this is their last year under contract, Michael Thomas, because he wasn't a first round pick, you don't even have that option. That's the shitty part sometimes about hitting just a home run on like a second or third round pick. You have to pay them after their third year, which, I mean, it's better than missing on the pick, but it creates, you know, it becomes a little tougher for your cap. With Amari, you've seen it coming for a while. Now, obviously Dallas traded for him last year, but they knew what they were trading for.

They're trading for a player that was on a fifth year option. and there was going to need a new deal. But you just compare the numbers. Michael Thomas catches way more balls. The yards are vastly pretty similar. And Michael Thomas is not like some deep threat, like Amari, just in terms of speed. And their touchdowns, Michael Thomas probably get 10 touchdowns this year. He's going to have, you know, potentially 10 more touchdowns through four years.

Who knows? Maybe it's more than that than Amari. So when I see this notion, and I think it's just kind of a narrative on Twitter, like Amari Cooper's got to wait until Michael Thomas gets paid. Why? So he knows how many millions less he's going to get. Michael Thomas, on paper, is the better player. On the field is the better player.

I don't quite understand what Amari's leverage is. Even if he waits for Michael Thomas to sign this deal, I don't see what his agent goes to Jerry Jones and says. Like, yeah, my guy's not as good, but he wants similar money? Like, what is the conversation on just the negotiation, right? We want the Michael Thomas contract. Well, my first response would be why? We got you because another team traded you.

Two, you've underachieved a point of times your career. Michael Thomas has only kick-ass and taking names since the moment he came to the NFL. He's just a better player. I mean, he's arguably a top-five wide receiver in the NFL. Amari, you've got to be like a Mari-Cooper fan member to make a really good argument for him even to sniff the top 10. So this notion that their contract should not look that similar.

to me Michael Thomas should get $19, $20 million. Amari Cooper, if he signs the contract before free agencies, probably about $16 million. You know, hell, Devante Adams, who is better than Amari, signed a contract for almost $15 million a year. To me, that would be fair for Amari. Now, the world and negotiations and business are not fair. You know, it's basically what you can get someone to pay you. That's what you're worth.

So if Amari can get $18, $19 million, more power of, to him. But I don't think he's an 18 or 19 million dollar player. I think he's more like 14 or 15. Now, because he's got a little leverage, because free agency is, you know, six months away, maybe he gets 16 and a half, 17, but I don't see how you pay him 20 million dollars. If you pay him 20 million dollars, you vastly overpaid. You know, ultimately last year, you didn't technically overpaid because if you didn't get Amari Cooper, you would not have made the playoffs. So he was worth that first round pick last year. He's got to maintain that to continue to be worth it because obviously the first round pick

who is going to be compared to the Raiders took Jonathan Abram, right? So they took a strong safety. So we'll see. I would bet money that Abram never has as productive of a career as Amari. Now you can't compare them apples to apples because they play different positions, but I think it's a fair thing to say. That guy

will not be as good as Amari. Amari's already made multiple Pro Bowls and should make more in his career. But I know at this point in time in his career, if you're just going off comps, him and Michael Thomas don't really have that much in common. And when it comes to their contract, that number shouldn't either. This episode is brought to you by Royal Caribbean, an award-winning global cruise line.

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because you already have so much to do around your home. Go to Geico. Go to Geico. Goh.com, get a quote, and see how much you could save. It's Geico easy. Visit geico.com today. That's guyco.com. Here's a new little segment we're going to do as we attack the summer, and we're going to hit every division in the NFL, a little gambling style. I'm going to use my site.

Can't give it away here just because they're not paying for it, and we don't do free advertising. Got to pay the bills. So if we get an official site here, I'll use those, but I'm going to use based off the metrics I use, and if you listen to my other podcasts, you know what side I'm using, and I'm going to do over-unders, and I'm going to do the team that I like to win the division, given the odds.

Here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to start on the East Coast, and I'm going to move my way west. So every week or every show, we'll do a new division. And this week, we'll just start East, AFC East, and the Patriots, they deserve to go first, Super Bowl champs, and I'm just going to work my way west. So we'll go AFC East today and NFC East starting early next week And by the end of next week we'll go you know AFC South

So let's start with the Patriots, okay And right now on my side I got the Patriots at 11 I would recommend pushing that I think the Patriots this season They're depending on Nikiel Harry They lost Trey Flowers They have a turnover at defensive coordinator I don't know they hire this guy if you ever heard of him

Bill Belichick He's going to be calling their defense of plays. They got a very, very young roster. To me, 11 feels right. I don't view them as a 13 or 14 win team. Obviously, they're not an 8 or 9 win team. I think 11 actually is the sweet spot, so I would recommend, I wouldn't even bet that. I think that they're an 11 and 5 team. The New York Jets, they're over under is 7. To me, this is a team. You have to like either of the Jets or bills in this division to win like eight or nine games. And I think it's probably a little more likely this season to be the Jets.

They've added Levion Bell, they've added C.J. Mosley. They just added a GM who might help. I mean, they're at near the top of the waiver wire claim. Sam Darnold, I like a lot more than Josh Allen. Again, Levy on Bell is huge for them. Their coaching staff, Adam Gase has proven to be a pretty consistent coach. I mean, last year was pretty shitty Miami. They went seven and nine.

I like the Jets to be around 8 and 8 this year. I like the over. I like the over 7 for sure. To me, the bills are a tough one because I like their coach. I actually don't mind their defensive roster. They play hard. I just think when you look at offensively, Josh Allen, I can't expect him to take as big of a jump year two as I do, Sam

Donald. Now, again, I'm rooting for Josh Allen. I didn't like him coming out of the draft, but the more I've gotten to know him as a guy, mainly through social media. I like him. He's a likable person. So I'm rooting for him.

I'm rooting to be wrong. But they signed a bunch of midget receivers. I don't know. Their draft pick, Ed Oliver, good pick, but is he going to be Aaron Donald year one? I think this team's probably a year away from being really good.

Remember, they made the playoffs, then they kind of took a step back to eventually take two steps forward, probably in like 2020. So I would probably go, Over under, same as the Jets. See, to me, one of these teams going over, one of them's going under. Maybe the bills are 7 and 9.

It feels like 6 and 10. But again, they play good defense. They have a good coach. I probably wouldn't bet this, and I would just, if I did, I would take the under, and I can get the under right now at plus 100, so basically even to odds. And then the Miami Dolphins.

Their number is 4.5. Will you go, did they upgrade it coach? I don't know. I mean, I'd be hard, to say that Brian Flores going to prove to be a better head coach than Adam Gase. The number's four and a half. To me, Josh Rosen, I would imagine as the full-time starter. Maybe Fitzpatrick starts a couple games.

When you see a team that's going to go four and 12, they usually have incompetent quarterback play. The one thing you would say for the Dolphins is they're going to have competent quarterback play. Fitzpatrick has proven in the NFL he can play. I mean, he can win a couple games. Josh Rosen was the 10th pick in the draft two years. years ago. They still have some weapons on the outside at receiver.

Yeah, to me, they're a five or six-win team. I would take the over in this scenario. You get the over at actually pretty shitty odds. So the Vegas basically tempting you. If you want to take the over on this one, you've got to get crappy odds. But I don't hate that one. And then let's look at the division. So here's a thing. Patriots just, stupid. I mean, minus 500. Well, they've won the division. I mean, every year for the last 10 years. The last time they lost the division was the year Brady got hurt.

Ironically, they still win 11 and 5, but they missed the playoffs. To me, the year that they're going to miss the playoffs is not going to be like a Peyton Manning type season. Remember when he just couldn't throw? Because Tom Brady can still really throw. We see it on the Instagram videos. We see it hell when he plays. Like, he can throw.

It's going to be an injury. He's going to have a season. He's going to have a catastrophe. Traffic injury. Knock on what, I don't want that to happen. But if you are going to bet against them, you would simply bet whoever you like is the second best team. And for me, it's the Jets. You get them at plus $6.50.

If Tom Brady were to go down, could they still win nine games? Let's say he went down in like early October. Could they still win nine or ten games with Hoyer? I don't think they could. I can't stand Brian Hoare. I think he's terrible. Would have Jared Stidham beats out Hoyer in training camp? That's a lot to ask of the rookie.

Now, they do have good running backs. They got Sony and Michelle. They just drafted another running back. They added Nikiel Harry. They still had Edelman. They have a good offensive line. So they could manipulate some offense. But if you just are betting against the free chance that Brady suffers a bad injury,

you could just go with the Jets at plus 650. But I don't know how you'd mess with the Dolphins. You couldn't touch the bills at plus 1,100. This is one of those that basically you probably probably. just stay away until Brady just retires. Because the one thing he's shown is he's been really durable. So even betting on an injury, he doesn't really put himself in compromising situations.

This has been, you know, death taxes and the Patriots winning the division. I mean, the Patriots having a one or two seed. When's the last time the Patriots played a first round playoff game? They just skip that round because at minimum, they're winning 12 games. It kind of feels like even with Brady this year they win 10 or 11, though I would never bet against them in the playoffs, just too much metal, too much championship character. But it does feel like their team is just a lot younger.

And anytime you have a young team and they're missing gronk, that if Brady were to go down, you know, the Jets plus 650, you got a little value. Okay, let's get to the Middokoff Mailbag. Bang out some of you guys' questions. Ad John Middilcoff, Instagram handle, fire right in, slide up in those DMs and ask me. Do you think Lamar Jackson has the tools to become a bona fide NFL quarterback? I love his confidence and speed, but worry about durability and accuracy.

Well, I think you said the number one thing that I would lean on that question, no, is accuracy. You can't become an elite NFL player and being an inaccurate quarterback. Like to be a good NFL quarterback, you have to be accurate. It's not even a debatable stance, right? You have to be accurate. Now, there are degrees of accuracy, but his baseline is not high enough. And the Ravens have basically admitted we know he's not accurate. We're going to run the wingtie offense.

I'm semi-kitting, but kind of not. So I do think at the end of the day, if he's ever going to become a solid starting NFL quarterback, not an elite runner and elite playmaker, a solid NFL quarterback, he has to be a 62% passer. especially now in this day and age where you can't really hit wide receivers and they're wide open and you can't really hit the quarterback except when you run. Well, he runs, so he's going to get hurt. Yeah, just, I'm not a believer.

Where do you think Mike McCarthy ends up coaching next year? My fear is a Giants fan as he ends up with the Redskins and he coaches up Haskins. Yeah, I could see that. I think at the end of the day, that article on Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rogers in Bleacher Report, what was it, six months ago, whenever it was, months ago. Maybe it was during the offseason. Was a bad look for McCarthy. He kind of came across as lazy.

He kind of, you know, with the massages, not the orchids of asa massages, but the massages where he missed meetings, he refused to adapt, kind of came off as a meathead. So, you know, I think his options are going to be limited. And the Redskins, because they're so nutty, yeah, I could see that,

him being the head coach, the Redskins, Dwayne Haskins, maybe he's reinvigorated, maybe he's got an edge and a chip on his shoulder. But yeah, I don't know. I think it's going to be a little more difficult than people think for Michael McCarthy just to resurrect his career, which is kind of crazy because I bet if I went to his Wikipedia page, his career as an NFL head coach's record's pretty damn good.

And he won a Super Bowl. Now people are like, well, he had Aaron Rogers. Well, Bill Walsh had Montana, right? Mike Tomlin had Rothesberger. Belichick had Brady. It's usually the peak arrow head Russell. Wilson. It's usually the way it works.

Colin mentioned the idea that the Pelicans aren't really sold on Lonzo Ball. If this is the case, should the Pelicans look into trading Lonzo in the number four pick to get the number two pick and John Morant Holiday? Okay. Well, as of recording this, I'm doing this right before the NBA draft, the Atlanta Hawks have traded for the number four overall pick. And the one thing I had heard, because I have some friends that are in the media that are really tight with Travis Slank, who's now the GM of Atlanta.

Atlanta, he was with the Warriors for like 10 plus years, that he was in love with RJ Barrett, and Travis Slank is an elite evaluator. He was a big reason the Warriors drafted so well forever. Now he's a big reason Atlanta's kind of, you know, turning this thing around. And the one thing it got me thinking that a guy like Travis Slank, like RJ Barrett's a good example,

he was the number one overall recruit coming out of high school. Then he went and got overshadowed by Zion, but I think a lot of people kind of lose touch. if you weren't locked into him, when you evaluate college basketball players, you have to watch them their junior and senior year in high school, to watch the maturation. Like when I watch, if I'm the SEC Scout and I'm doing Clemson, well, I get to see Trevor Lawrence's sophomore and junior year.

I get to see him mature and its freshman year. Well, in college basketball, if you aren't watching them in high school and they're a one and none guy, you're missing stuff. And I think guys like Travis Slank are locked into that. And I would imagine he's seen R.J. Barr, and gone, this guy's going to be a stud. Yeah, he had a, I guess he still had a good year, you know, but I think, I know for a fact, he thinks he's a stud.

So keep an eye on R.J. Barrett in the NBA, who's probably going to end up with the Knicks. As of recording this, as you're listening, he probably is a Nick. Big fan. From L.A. and Estatic, the Rams are back home. I feel you. St. Louis stole your damn team. Don't ever get that twisted. Do you think we can actually have a chance to get back to the Super Bowl? I feel 11 wins, another division win with all the talent around.

his thoughts. I actually think the Rams are coming back to Earth. I'm not going to pick them to make the playoffs this year. I think Todd Gurley's too important of a cog in that whole thing. And it pains me to say this because Todd Gurley, who I thought, like three years ago, got a little overhyped, and then even when McVeigh got there, I didn't quite love his instincts, but over his time with McVeigh, toward the end of that first year, he was incredible. I mean, he was a legitimate MVP candidate. Every time that he touched the field with McVeigh, he became an MVP candidate. But now that it's not a lot of his

knees kind of shot. I'm out on the ramps. I think they kind of come back to Earth this year. Seven, eight wins. They lost Lamarcus Joyner. They lost Ndamaican Sioux. Todd Gurley, who knows what he's bringing to the table. I don't know. I just, I wouldn't be shocked

that they missed the playoffs. I actually think someone else wins the NFC West. I was thinking since football will be quiet for a short stretch, you should make some way to early predictions on division winners. Got you covered.

dog, it'd be a lot of fun to see where your head's at so early and you could circle back and revise later, as well as after the season, unlike Colin. I like that. Yeah, I actually had this idea because I know a lot of you guys like it and I like it, and I'll write them down and I'll come back to it. So let's see, I wrote down Patriots. That was a tough one. And the Jets are my sleeper team in that division.

Sleeper, yeah, I mean, I guess they're a sleeper team because they were, what, they drafted in the top five. Big fan of the show, and I 90% of the time agree with your takes, but I was listening to today's episode on my way back from work, and you said golf and football are the only two sports with random winners every year. I have to disagree with that because hockey has won almost every year. Agree, I skipped hockey. In fairness, not a huge hockey guy, though I do parachute when the playoffs come, but you're right.

The St. Louis Blues is one of the worst teams in the NHL. I think statistically they might have been the worst team in the NHL, turned it around, won the Stanley Cup. So you're right. And as I said, but I did say, it shows you, I was just, I wasn't thinking about hockey, but when there was a question last week when someone had me rank home field advantages, and I put the NHL last, especially in the playoffs, because it's proven it doesn't matter. I mean, look, the Blues just won the Stanley Cup at the Boston Garden or whatever, the TBC Guard, whatever they call it.

So, yeah, I'm with you. You're right. Hey John, love the pod. Me too. With the Chiefs losing some key players on defense and potentially Tyreek, Rivers getting older and the Raiders being the Raiders, what do you think about the Broncos, chances of the division, or at least a wildcard spot?

With a rock-solid defense and a proven vet quarterback, they could sneak in and grab a spot this year when they have won the Super Bowl. Like the year they won the Super Bowl with Manning. Yeah, I mean, that defense when they won the Super Bowl with Manning was better. I mean, they had a keep to leave, Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roeby. were all studs. They had Darian Stewart, who was just a hammer. Brandon Marshall was playing at a high level.

The defensive line was Vaughn Miller, Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, and I don't know if you've heard of this guy named Demarcus Ware, and then they had Shaquille Barrett coming off the bench. That team, that defense was, I thought it was every bit as good as those peak Seattle defenses when you factored it.

And it was better because their pass rush was better. Their DBs were just, were unreal. I mean, the speed, the cover corners, the physicality. They had speed at linebacker. Oh, they also had Danny Trevathan. And you look back, they had Emmanuel Sanders. Demarius Thomas was still playing well. C.J. Anderson was a good player.

I was at the Super Bowl when C.J. Anderson ran for, what, like 120 yards? I don't think the Denver team's anywhere near as good. And I don't like Joe Flacco. Though, I'm with you. Their defense could be really good because their pass rush could be great with Bradley Chubb and Von Miller. You still got Derek Wolf. So, yeah, could they suppress? prize some people and be in the wild card mix, for sure.

Could they win the division? I don't see that. I also think you're asking, someone told me the other day, Vic Fangio's never coached from the sideline. He's always in the booth. Like, that is a big, big adjustment for Vic Fangio. I know you've talked a lot about the Browns lately,

but I was wondering your take on Antonio Calloway this season. With all the added weapons on the offense, a lot of people think he could have a really productive year, and so do I. What do you think? Well, as we saw in Hard Knocks, and then obviously if Browns fans watch them every week, I just kind of parachute in and out on the Browns, but I know this player pretty well because I was locked in on him in college.

And I've been watching them since his freshman year. I was a big Jim McElwain guy. I knew guys on that staff, so I watched a lot of Florida. The kid is really, really talented. I think he's got two major knocks. One, I think we throw out this pretty just liberally in the sense that we just throw it out there, and it means different things for different players. maturity is a big issue for this guy.

And when I say maturity, like, is he taking notes in meetings? I'm not just talking about being there on time. Is he super locked in? Is he maximizing everything he can be doing when he's around the facility? Now, you add Odell Beckham, which is a good thing, but it's also a bad thing because it's kind of a big distraction. Jarvis is pretty locked in, Baker's there. The talent with this guy has never been argued. He is a legitimate talent, but he also has a lot of drops.

So can he catch the ball? And to me, that's a lot with focus slash maturity. Because when you prove you can catch the ball, like you don't have bad, like, does Terrell Owens have bad hands? Like Vernon Davis had bad hands. He was not a natural pass catcher. But there are a lot of guys like Amari Cooper. I've seen Amari Cooper make just incredible plays.

But Amari Cooper has a lot of concentration drops. And that's what I see with Antonio Calloway, is concentration drops. But if Antonio Calloway is like your fourth best watch, receiver and I'm factoring in the two receivers they have Jarvis O'Dell and then the tight end that's pretty and Nick Chubb that's pretty good like this guy was a first round level talent if he didn't get kicked out of college but I think that that kind of write-up on him the person is a big part of who he is as a player so if he ever can get locked in and

grow and listen I think it mostly guys are listening to this show we all can relate we grow up a little later you know some of us some of us kind of come into our own in our, you know, 20, 21, 22, that was kind of like my sweet spot. Others are like 24, 25, 26. So it's just, I think, and then if it's not to me by like your late 20s, it never happens. But it, for guys, there's like a six, seven year sweet spot. I've always believed this. And then there are the outliers that are like ready. They're senior year in high school. I went to high school with one. The dude was, ended up swimming at Stanford. Most mature guy had ever been around. I couldn't even sniff that type maturity. Kind of kicked in for me when

I was like 21, 22. But I've had some friends that kick in like 24, 25. Then they go on to have a lot of success and whatever they're doing. It all hits us differently. But if it hasn't hit you, I think, by like 27, 28, with whether you're a football player or not, it's never really going to kick in. Now, my theory, I could be proven wrong.

Maybe you know, super late bloomers. But in my experience with people in life, that's kind of the age. With men, women are a tad bit more mature, I think. That's a fact. You were high on Juju while he was at SC and you also jumped on the Kiel Harry before others.

You see similarities in their game if not what caught your eyes about both guys. Nikiel's a little bigger. The thing that really jumped out to me about Juju was his toughness and physicality. His junior year, he messed up his thumb. I don't know if it was a break or a bad dislocation, but it was really bad.

He didn't miss one game. And during that time, he was still stiff arming dudes, making tough catches. And it was like, damn. This school had been knocked over the years for kind of having softer guys. Robert Woods, Marquise Lee, just got toughness with somewhat of a question. To me, Juju had the physical characteristics because he was just a, just, I mean, well-put-together player.

But the way he played his physicality jumped off the screen. To me, Nikiel Harry had the same thing, and I even thought in college a little bit more of a playmaker. Now, I guess with USC, they just have more. playmakers at Arizona State, he was the dude. And his physicality, his run after the catch, and just sometimes receivers, and you got to be careful with this, just because a guy is quote-unquote a little soft doesn't mean he's not going to be a good NFL player.

But when I see a guy, in both these guys, when you're not that fast, you've got to be a tough, you know, MFer. I can say motherfucker, but, you know, you got to be tough. And at the end of the day, Juju and Nikiel Harry aren't. blazers. You know, they're not running for four ones. So they have to hang their hat on, like Anquam Bolden, you know, and be super physical and contested catches and after the play, throw defensive back just because most debes you're going to play, the corners are not tough. So if you are tougher than them, you have an advantage, especially when you are physically bigger than

those guys. And I see that in juju, and I definitely see that in Nikiel. Nikiel's just got this natural feel for space too when the ball's in his hand. making guys miss, getting yards after the catch that aren't there. Like when you're watching on TV, like, how's it going to get more yards? Then boom, he gets 10 more yards because he runs over a guy, he makes a guy miss. And there's just an ability contested catches is what Crabtree really had when Crabtree was humming. Is to just get balls out of the air when a guy is draped all over you. Because when you're not a blazer, you're going to be in contested areas a lot.

Defense backs are going to be all over you, right? It's like Steph Curry, for example. He's not the most explosive point guard. So is he going to just consistently beat you off the dribble with explosion? No. Where he's going to beat you off the dribble is he has elite handle. So if you can't beat a guy with just foot speed, you have to either beat him with physicality or just intelligence.

And I think both when guys that are physical and tough, and they also have excellent catch radiuses combined with clearly these guys have high football IQs, I just don't see those guys busting. Now, I'll be honest, I didn't think Juju was going to be this good, but I don't even know if Nekiel Hary is going to be as good as Juju, but I don't bet against those guys. I wouldn't bet against Anquon Bolden. I'm not betting against Anquoombolden.

I'm not betting against Juju, and I'm not betting against Nikiel Harry. Well, keep firing in my DMs at John Middilcoff. Middlecoff mailback, always here for you. Enjoy the weekend, 4th of July, not too far away, and I'll talk to everyone soon. Peace out, Godspeed. See ya. Hey, Singles.

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