The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Middlekauff – 3 & Out – NFL biz booming; Franchise tag future; Young QB's ceilings/floors; AFC West O/U's; Middlekauff Mailbag

Episode Date: July 16, 2019

Subscribe here to the 3 and Out with John Middlekauff Podcast https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff/id1352730623?mt=2. In this episode, Middlekauff explains looks at the continued signs that the NFL business is booming, the future of the franchise tag; the floors and ceilings for the young NFL QB's. He also gives his AFC West O/U picks and answers listener questions in Middlekauff's Mailbag. Follow John on twitter @JohnMiddlekauff and go to www.theherdnow.com to find the latest content. Subscribe now! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, Wreck, my mama want you to weigh better. What? Hey, Ms. Parker. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

The story I told myself can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. There's a recipe for getting your car running just right. And eBaymotors.com has all the ingredients you need.

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Visit Royal Caribbean.com to learn more. What is going on, everybody? John Middellcock, three and out podcast. Back and at it again. We are close. We are very, very, very close to football. It's July 15th. As I'm recording this year, probably listening on the 16th or 17th.

I think the Broncos start training camp this week. Most teams start next week. The veterans will be in by the end of the week. And we'll have actual football. Now, training camp isn't, quite what it used to be. There's no hitting, there's no tackling, but at least football, I mean, we're what? Once August hits, we're a little over a month away. So we are about, I don't know, 45 days till football games. I mean, college football, that first weekend is

usually August 29th, August 30th, September, or August 31st, September 1st. You know, we usually have that whole weekend, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday night, where I just veg on college football, and then we got NFL starting that Thursday. Oh, I can't wait. Got a big show this week. Some information, some numbers came out about the revenue sharing, and I think it speaks to just the overall health of the dominance of the NFL.

You know, the franchise tag in my backyard, a kicker was paid. You know, he basically declined the franchise tag. They signed Robbie Gold for $10 million. Grady Jarrett got $68 million and Clowny and they couldn't come to an agreement. Now part of that is unlike the Falcons and the 49ers, Bill O'Brien doesn't want to sign Clowny to a long-term deal. Unless Clowny was willing to sign like a $30 million guaranteed contract, Bill O'Brien was never going to give him $70 or $80 million.

But just have some thoughts on the franchise tag. And then someone in my DMs, Middilcoff Mailbag will be last. You can always slide up in my DMs at. John Middelloff is my Instagram handle. But just people have been shooting me some ideas. You know, we've had some ideas on fantasy football. Maybe we'll start a three and out fantasy football league. Someone's like, you should go through all the young quarterbacks

and just go their ceiling and their floor. So what I did is I wrote down Rosen Allen, Darnold, Lamar, I mean, basically every quarterback under 26 or 27. And I wrote what I think they're sealing and what their floor is. Fun little exercise. And then we'll finish with the AFC West, over unders, and, and odds to win the division.

But let's start with the NFL. There was a tweet this week that the 10 largest audiences on television for sporting events were all NFL games. Shocker, the NFL dominates. They're in a different category than the NBA, which thinks they're really big because they're on Twitter. And again, the NBA is big. I watch a ton of NBA. They're big in a lot of markets, but they don't hold a candle to the NFL, just like baseball. who actually baseball will tell you

their All-Star game did a lot higher number than the NBA All-Star game. Now, little skewed Baseball All-Star game on Fox, the NBA All-Star game on TNT, so it's a little different. But again, we're nitpicking. Baseball and basketball are fighting for real estate and the NFL is just in a different world.

And there was a story. Every year there's a revenue share and it's the great part about the NFL. It's why many people in business will tell you it's arguably, the greatest business going right now in all of America. Like, I got family in farming. And when they have a good year, you can crush it, right?

You can make a ton of money. And when you have a bad year, you can make nothing. I got family in the beer business. When things are going well, you can make a lot of money. But laws can change, rules can change. Things can change. You're not guaranteed any amount of money every year. In the NFL, your highest expense every year is your players.

I think this year the number was $188 million, or it might be $188 now. It was $180, I think, last fiscal year. They just got a check the NFL for $273 million. And I read a stat that, I guess, with insurance, all your guys that go on IR, all the payouts from whatever, the average, I think most teams were around between $1.80 million. The average payout for everything,

including insurance and all this other stuff, was 215 million. So you're still 60 million in the plus. So if your coaching staff, hell, even if you're paying John Gruden $10 million, and the rest of his coaching staff, I don't know, a combined three or four, if your coordinators used to make a million,

all your assistants add up to another couple million, you still have a ton of revenue. That's not even counting your game day receipts. Parking, food, all the revenue that you're gaining signage inside your stadium. It can't be overstated. the amount of cash that is being generated right now by the NFL. And I know, I know the progressive Twitter, love shitting on the NFL.

They got issues. Yeah, every league has issues. You know, every league has issues. And I recently went out on a date, online dater. And with an older lady, you know, I'm about to be 35. She was in her 40s. And she had a child, a young boy. And she's like, you think I'm going to let him play football?

And I said, of course you should let him play football. especially in high school. I mean, I didn't play, I didn't play football, padded football until I was in high school. I got no problem like peewees, junior peewees, but you can play in high school. The game has never been safer. The game has made massive amounts of progress in keeping the game safe. Now personally, I like the violence. I like the hitting. I like snobbles. I like watching guys get laid out. But from a business standpoint, and now as someone who depends on the business of football, to make more. money. Think about this, all the people that are getting rich in the NFL. One, no sport by a wide margin has made more players rich. And that's part of just, the NBA people would be like, well, there's more players. Yeah, well, that's the sport. And more people in the NFL are getting rich than in your sport. There is a tiny, tiny percentage in the NBA, because there's only 12 players on a roster and only probably, I don't know, eight to nine of them are making seven figures. Obviously,

the top couple are making boo-goo just stupid money. But the majority, majority of guys in the NBA, you know, around for four or five years don't make that much money. And in baseball, there's double the amount of NBA, but it still doesn't reach the equivalent of the NFL. So all the players are obviously getting rich. All the coaches are clearly getting rich. All the executives are getting rich. And here's the other thing. A lot of people in the media, like me, I wouldn't call myself getting rich yet, but I'm making pretty damn good money just talking about the NFL. Like this is a cash cow that's feeding a lot of people. So I often get offended.

And again, I'm not saying Roger Goodell's perfect. They haven't screwed up over the years. Welcome to life. Everyone screws up. But they are generating so much cash for so many people in the game. I just don't know if it could be any healthier. I mean, now that I do this show and you guys slide up in my DMs, I get so many questions now.

And I never played fantasy football because I always aspired to work in real football. So once I did it, and then, I realized, you know, I was a little overrated working in the NFL, but, like, it was awesome. And then I started playing Daily Fantasy the last couple years. I've still never played in a fantasy football league. Maybe I need to be more open to it, because clearly a lot of you guys like it. And again, it's a big reason for generating money for the league. Here's another thing the NFL has going for it.

I say it all the time. Like, again, I talk crap about the other two sports. I got the Giants game on right now. They're five games under 500, but they've won like 9 of 11. I consume an unhealthy amount of live events. Literally every day of the year, multiple live events a day, all sporting events. So I watched a lot of the NBA. But as a gambler, and I've been gambling pretty consistently since college,

took a little hiatus in the NFL. I don't know if it was legal or not, but I also scouted the West Coast, so I'd slide through Vegas, and I'd always, I was like Pete Rose. I'd always bet on my team. One game, I think I lost some cash, we lost the Ravens, but gambling on football is gambling on basketball sucks, because in the NBA currently you never know who's going to play or not.

Load management. All of a sudden you bet on one team, the dude's not playing. And obviously in basketball, one player impacts the game greatly. In baseball, I mean, the only time I'd ever bet on baseball is if I'm in Vegas and drunk.

Otherwise, I would never bet on a baseball game. Now, the playoffs are a little different, but football, every regular season game is fun to bet on. And obviously, the playoffs speaks for itself, and the Super Bowl is the most bet event of the year. I've actually, as someone again who loves to gamble, golf to me, beside March Madness, is the second most entertaining sport to bet on. Now it's the hardest because you're usually betting on one guy, I mean, you are betting on one guy against the field.

Now you can bet on top fives and top tens. But the NFL, to me, the point spread, the teams are the closest, it's the most competitive league, is the most entertaining sport to gamble on. So when I often hear like, what gambling's going to do for sports? No, gambling is going to help football. I don't know if it's going to help the other sports anywhere near as much. And as someone who participates in gambling, I'm pretty confident that that's the case. So the NFL, the demise, everyone was writing them off a couple years ago. They were smart.

Because this would be the one thing if I ever sat down with Adam Silver. I know you love being progressive, but it turns a lot of people off. I don't want to hear about politics with sports. So yeah, they quote unquote support their players. So does the NFL. The NFL had one issue with one guy, Colin Kaepernick. Kenny Stills still does stuff He's still in the league

A lot of guys do Now they blackballed Colin Kaepernick Fact I agree there I'm not ignorant enough I had a front row seat for it That happened I don't know exactly how it happened Like if everyone talked

But once Colin Kaepernick started suing the league Like I got news for you Last night a blown call changed a game This morning the internet lost its mind Highlights are trending Opinions are flying And nobody's telling you Exactly what happened

That's where sports slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.

Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the things,

thing. We get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kea, games is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the hard way

and listen now. What's up fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective

on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by,

like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. Hey, that man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball, like, after you go through a training camp with that, Izaa, you figure it out real quick.

Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clever Taylor the 4th. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff,

like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue of 42. Hey, rep, my mama want you to wave at her. What?

Hey, Ms. Parker. Listen to the Clippers show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. It's why today, and I'm not trying to go down this Colin Kaepernick rabbit hole, but he got blackballed originally, and then he chose to sue the league, and the moment he did that, he was never going to play in the NFL again. And it's one conversation that I consistently see on Twitter, like, why is Colin Kaepernick not in the league? Well, I don't know, did you guys see? He had a lawsuit against the league and they paid him off to go away. Like, usually, like, once you pay off your wife to go away, you no longer still date your wife or marry to your wife, right? It's over.

The relationship ended there. So the NFL has had its issues. They've done a good job to get out of it. Roger Goodell, who is a much malign commissioner over the years, again, has made players, executives, coaches, clearly himself, and a lot of people like myself, associated just on the periphery of the NFL a lot of money. Well, not me, a lot of money. But you know what I'm saying? Being able to be gainfully employed because people care about the NFL. Fans care about the NFL. Why? because it's the one sport when the season starts consistently that over half the league has a

legitimate shot to make a run, to not just make the playoffs, but to make a run. Now, when all the dust settles, you're like, oh, that team actually didn't have a chance, but as we sit here in the middle of July, I would imagine 20 plus franchises are pretty bullish on their team. In 20 plus franchises, the fan bases, could talk themselves into I think we got a chance this year. And clearly, even if your team doesn't, you're still watching. Millions of Americans are getting back to work.

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find that someone special. Start enjoying the sounds of your new single life. Get started today at events and adventures.com. I saw this thing tweeted the other day from CNBC's Twitter account and it was like Jeff Bezos in I think like 97 or 98 when Amazon

was kind of taken off. I mean this is 20 plus years ago and I mean he still stands by this motto but all he talked about was all Amazon's goal and company motto was going to be was everything is pro consumer

We're going to have the best customer service. We're going to have the cheapest prices. We are going to do everything possible to make it the best experience for the consumer. Because at the end of the day, consumers love us. One, they'll be loyal and will always have their business. And two, it just grows and grows and grows. Now, obviously, no one ever thought they would become what they have become. But they are still a consumer-friendly organization in 2019 is arguably the biggest company,

maybe statistically they are the biggest company in the world. I mean, hell, as one of my buddies who lives in D.C. was telling me, I mean, I think anyone that follows business knows this, but I think sometimes it escapes our mind. They don't make money off the products. They actually lose money off shipping your stuff. There's a reason you go to Best Buy and you look at something and then you type it into Amazon and it's way cheaper.

Basil's ain't making cash off that. Now he's making a lot of money off a lot of other things, but he's not making cash off that. and I say this all the time about the NFL. They are by far the most consumer-friendly organization. And a big reason for that is, is the franchise tag. Because when you have a great player, you can just keep them. And at worst case scenario, you can just keep franchising them.

Hell, Al Davis years ago did it over and over and over with Charles Wilson. We see it happen with Kirk Cousins. Now, he's not a great player. But you know what I say. If you want to keep a guy, you can just franchise tag them. Even if you don't really want to keep them, but you don't really want to lose them, and you don't really want to pay them, you can just franchise them. And guess what?

Why we're all fans of all this sports first and foremost? Because we started rooting for teens. And in the NBA, for as fun as the offseason is, like, is it cool if you're a Charlotte Hornet fan and Campbell Walker just leaves? Or if you were an OKC fan three years ago and Kevin Durant just leaves? Or last year when LeBron just bounces for Cleveland? Like, that sucks. That does not happen in the NFL.

because the end of the day, if LeBron James was in the NFL and he wanted to leave, they'd say, sorry, buddy, you ain't going anywhere. And to me, it's a big reason for, maybe big reason strong, but it's a part of the health of the NFL. You keep really good players. Even if it is contentious, even if they end up holding out, like, it's a pro for the fan. Now, I think if you take a step back,

and even most fans with common sense would say, you know what, it is a little messed up, right? Maybe in this new CBA, because if you've been following, Pro Football Talks tweeted about it, I think the NFL kind of leaked that the talks have been healthy,

and then they leaked that there's going to be 18 games, and I think there are going to be some very interesting conversations in this new CBA. What's going to happen with marijuana? I say it all the time with weed. One, weed and delivery service, my biggest sponsor on my other podcast. Like, I got new.

for you. We, wheat is here to stay. We're never going back. And it's going to be one of the biggest businesses in America in, I mean, federally legal in five to six years. And if you don't think half the owners are getting high and coaches are getting high, you're out of your mind. And I say this all the time. I don't think the owners care. They really don't care. Because again, I think a lot of them are smoking. I think the problem they have is, I think there insurance purposes because it's not federally legal that if they weren't going to ban it, there are financial ramifications. Because again, all this stuff relates to money. But in this new CBA agreement, one of the things with the franchise tag, one, imagine this. And you see this

sometime on Twitter like, don't compare regular people to pro athletes. Well, let's just do an exercise here. Money's all relative. If you go from 100 grand to 200 grand, that feeling is like when a guy goes from a million to $2 million. Or when you go from 50 grand to $100,000, like doubling your income is doubling your income. It's relative at any amount of money. So let's just say you were a player making, I don't know, $3 million. Robbie Gold last year made $2 million, a little less. Maybe it was like $2.2. And this franchise tag was going to more than double his income. Like, yeah, it sucks.

You can't go anywhere else. But if you're more than doubling your income, there are worst inconveniences in life. Now, what every sport has fought for in free agency, part of being a free agent is the key thing there is free. Like you can do or go wherever you want, whatever the market bears. So maybe, like a compromise on this next CBA would be, what if you're going to franchise tag me for like Clownie, who's getting $15 million? Remember last year, Levy on Bell, who was franchised two years in a row, maybe the contract should be you have to at the highest number, it's guaranteed for two years. So for example, if Clownie, I don't even know what is franchise tag number, let's just say it's $15 million. If you are going to franchise tag me, you guarantee me a two-year deal at $30 million.

So it's double the price. Or whatever that franchise number would be based on those two years. Remember, it goes up like I think 125% in the second year. So maybe it's, okay, you're going to franchise me. You're guaranteeing me $35 million. And then if you do trade me to another team, that team has to negotiate a new contract. that franchise tag doesn't follow me. Like I'm a free agent.

You're trading me to that team. They have my rights, but they have to pay me a deal on. You know, again, I haven't thought all this out, and it would be complicated, but maybe that's something the players could fight for. And I've heard Albert Brewer, I think he's told Colin this before. I know he's written this,

that actually the franchise tag, us in the media, and people on Twitter, complain about it more than the players, because again, let's just pick a person, and I think the average income in America is like 50 grand. Let's say a guy with double that amount of income, you're just making $100 grand. Imagine if your company that you wanted to leave, but they're like, you know what, we'll guarantee you two years at $400,000. Like, you probably could suck it up for a couple years.

And again, one of the big reasons these guys, the guys that do bitch and moan about the franchise tag is because it doesn't give them that much security. Because if you do get hurt that year on the franchise tag, you might never make it your second franchise tag. That was Levy on Bell's big issue. Now, it kind of bit him in the ass, but he had technically already made it to the second year, like they were offering the money. Once you start playing, you're guaranteed that money. He just thought he was going to get a lot more money that ended up not coming. I just do think there is an angle for these players to argue,

if you are going to franchise tag, it immediately rolls over to a two-year contract at that year plus 125% of that number. you know, again, so 15 million, it would be like a two-year $35 million deal if the Texans want to sign them. So it disincentivizes teams that don't really want that player. Like one thing's clear. We've seen the 49ers wanted Robbie Gold. No people with the 49ers. People are like today, the 49ers gave in to Robbie Gold's demands.

No, they've had this offer on the table for like three months. Robbie Gold just wanted to be on the Bears. The Niners and Robbie Gold were not bitching and moaning about money. It was that Robbie Gold does not want to live in California anymore. He never moved his kids out here. He never moved his wife out here. He lives in a hotel. He wants to play for the Bears.

Now, someone clearly got into his ear and said, Robbie, one thing, the franchise tag this year would have paid you what you've made the last three years combined. Two, with this two-year $10 million offer, you're just insane not to take it. I think he'd made like a career like $19 million in his career. again, $10 million if you're a kicker is a lot of money. And he just took it.

Now, I still think, and I don't know, I haven't texted anyone with the Niners today. I don't know if he's truly happy. Like, he didn't really want to sign that deal. He just did it out of financial, I mean, just having some financial sense. Grady Jarrett, clearly they wanted him. He wanted to be there, boom, boom. The one with the Houston Texans, like Bill O'Brien does not want Clowny on his team. In a perfect world, he would trade him for a pick or trade him for a player and get rid of

The problem is when you have a guy that the entire league knows you don't want, and then it's on the franchise tag, and then also wants some money, it makes it pretty complicated. Unless he's Khalil Mack, or Aaron Donald, where the entire league would trade for him and then pay him. Clowny is not of that level. No one in the NFL is trading a first round pick for him and then giving them $80 million guaranteed. So they're in a complicated situation. But again, I don't have this quite all-mapped out. I just know I'm on to something.

If he was on a two-year $35 million contract, and again, I had originally said that maybe you couldn't trade it, but maybe you could. And maybe Clownie would be, you know, more open to signing that contract. Because unlike a lot of players that bitch and moan about the franchise tag,

because if you get franchise tag and you weren't a first-round pick, you haven't made that much money. Clownie was a number one overall pick. I saw someone tweet today if you factored in last, his first four years and his fifth year option, He made $50 million.

I guess he would have made $50 million after this franchise tag number. So he's already made $36 million or $35 million. I'm sorry, clowning. I'm not totally crying for you. You're super rich. And you're going to be richer. Just are you going to get $75, $80 million guaranteed or someone going to try to sign you for 60 guaranteed?

You're going to make some money either way. But it does become complicated if, you know, I don't think he's the highest level of player and I got to trade for him. but if you could trade that two-year $35 million deal, maybe Clowny would have already been traded. Maybe Bill O'Brien would feel comfortable about him playing on that number. I don't know, but I think the franchise tag is going to be tweaked. But hopefully, I don't want it to go away because I do think that really benefits.

We don't want Kauai Leonard leaving three teams in three years. LeBron James leaving every other year. That would not be good for the NFL. We have enough movement as it is. The NFL is more of a team game than a player game. Okay, let's do a little listener-inspired segment. I don't even really know what to call this. I'll just go Young Quarterback Hierarchy.

And hierarchy is probably the wrong word. Just go Young Quarterback Ceilings and Floors. And basically I just took every guy that's been drafted since like 2014, the starters, and I wrote them all down. Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Watson, Marriota, Mahomes, Carr, Dack, Wentz, James, Jared Gough. I did not include this year's rookie class, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, and Drew Locke, just because, I don't know. You know, just, I got to wait until the, I don't know. I just can't do it, you know, because I don't know, you know.

I even throw Josh Rosen somewhat in that group just because last year was such a disaster for his team and then he gets traded to the Dolphins and if you've been listening to the show for a long time I was a Josh Rosen fan coming out of college and I still liked the talent but I don't even ceiling floor I really have no clue

like do you think Josh Rosen's going to fail? He might. He's already on a second team in 12 months Do you think he's going to be good? He might. But who knows? I mean, his quarterback coach, Jim Caldwell, I think it was reported, say, Monday, when was that, it meant Saturday,

or maybe it was yesterday, or might have been Friday, I don't know, the last three or four days, that he's sick, and he's not going to be able to be the quarterback coach. I don't know what his illness is, but he had to take his leave absence, step away from the team,

so he's not really going to be a full-time coach anymore. That's a pretty big deal. So, to me, he's a great unknown. Kyler Murray's a great unknown. Daniel Jones is a great unknown. and Drew Locke's a great unknown. I just, I just, I can't even comment with a straight face. It'd just be BSing you.

But let's go Josh Allen. Here, I'm just going to start the way I wrote them down. I went to ESPN.com, looked at the, basically, the standings, and I just wrote them down based, so I started on the AFC East and kind of work my way down to the NFC West. Josh Allen. I think best case scenario, he's like a Kaepernick meets Big Ben, because he's a, big armed, big, strong, athletic. He clearly can run, and he can make big plays.

A little like, you know, Wents. I think him and Wence actually have some similarities. Now, he's not as good as Wence, but I'm just saying, like, there is a, if he hits, this guy has the ability to be pretty special because he has the physical characteristics. He's a big-time athlete. I've been following him on Instagram for like a year. He has an impressive guy.

I'm rooting for him. But I think the problem is he's got a lot of buzz. potential. He's in an organization that, you know, has been pretty inconsistent over the years. Now, I like Sean McDermen, but Sean McDermen's a defensive guy. So, Sean McDermott is not helping him out with his mechanics, helping him out

with the mindset. He's just not, he's a defensive guy. His offensive coordinator, the moment they have a good offensive years, offensive coordinator is going to get a job. So I do think there's some level like Jake Locker, he had that short window where you're like, God, there's something there, and then he was just a bust. Now, his bus was a little more

injuries, but he was always inaccurate. he was a much smaller version of Josh Allen, but when you're consistently inaccurate, it's hard to consistently win on Sundays. And as a buddy in the league texts me after their free agency, they're like, well, they have an inaccurate quarterback, and they sign two midget receivers. You know, you're going to get Josh Allen,

you need big, tall, you know, guys with huge catching radiuses, and they got small guys. So I'm rooting for him. I think he's probably more likely to never live up to what he should be than become this Big Ben Kaepernick hybrid. When I say Kaepernick, I mean the good version. Sam Donald. I think he's got a lot of Tony Romo.

I was watching the American Century Golf Tournament. Tony Romo treats that thing like the Masters. He's won in back-to-back years. He beat the crap out of everyone this year. I mean, no one was in like 10 points of them. Dominated the field. But then last night, I'm flipping the channels. I grabbed some dinner,

and I'm just flipping the channels at like 6.30 at night. Nothing on Sunday night. and all of a sudden the Tony Roma football I saw it. And I come in like five minutes in, I watch the whole thing, I'm just glued. Like, God, what an incredible story. Undrafted Free Agent becomes a four-time pro bowler and one of the toughest players of his generation. But he was kind of like this ad lib, just a fun player to watch. And I think Sam Darnold has a chance to just be a fun player to watch.

But his bust potentially throws a lot of picks. He's pretty inaccurate. I couldn't quite think of the quarterback who he'd be like. But he's got a chance to maybe. he's just never that good of a player. You know, I think it's that simple. To me, Lamar Jackson, remember RG3's first year when obviously his stats were a little skewed

because they were throwing easy passes, but it was clear like, this guy's really talented. Like, you just watch Lamar, run around, he can hit some big plays. Like, clearly there's a lot of talent there. So I'd say best case scenario, he kind of comes in that rookie version of RG3, but he's able to kind of just contain it.

You know, I think RG3 was a much more consistent passer before he got all banged up, but Lamar Jackson can just become this dynamic hybrid. The thing I worry about, and RG3 is also a good example here, is when you run around, like when you're a quarterback that runs around, especially not just behind the line of scrimmage, Tony Romo style, and Tony Romo got hurt a lot, but past the line of scrimmage, you're going to get hurt. And RG3 is a lot bigger than Lamar Jackson. Like, Lamar Jackson is small.

So that would make me worried, especially in that division, like when I think the AFC North, I immediately just think tough guy division. It's cold, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati. Like, it's not a hug you every. This isn't the Big 12, brother, as Dan Hawkins coaching UC Davis, who actually just lined up USC on their schedule, 2011, first time in school history. My dad, if he was still around, would be very fired out for that game. So I'm going to have to watch.

that in his honor. UC Davis, USC two years from now. Baker Mayfield. It's pretty clear. Baker Mayfield has all the ingredients to be a big time player. I think his most natural comparison, similar height, Hanks his hat on accuracy.

He's actually got a stronger arm than this guy. Now this guy's a much more consistent human being than Baker, but would just be the player would be Drew Brees. Now the one thing that separates Brees is just how steady of a human is.

He is. Now, Baker Mayfield, I follow him on Instagram, follow actually his wife on Instagram, he's a newlywed. Sometimes, young guys, super cocky, whatever. It's not like Baker was really a screw-around guy. Has that a couple of issues in the past? Maybe he really matures.

Imagine they'll have some children here soon. Maybe he becomes like Drew Brees. But that incident, this off-season with Duke Johnson, him talking a bunch of shit about a guy that really did nothing wrong, you know, rubbed me the wrong way. Like, that's immaturity. Now, again, when I was 23, 24 years old, I think anyone listened to this who's, you know, in their 30s or 40s, when you were that age, you're immature.

You say things that you regret. So maybe in three or four years, Baker looks back and just realizes, yeah, I shouldn't have said that. Now, what made Drew Breeze pretty special is Drew Brees never said things he shouldn't regret. He was elite character from probably the time he was like 10 years old. So, like, that's really kind of what separates Drew Breeze beside the elite accuracy. Because Drew Breeze's comp is really Steve Young, who again, elite maturity, elite accuracy.

So, to me, if Baker matures, because he clearly has the physical attributes with his accuracy and better arm than both those guys, he should be a pretty good player. And when I think if he busts, like, who's he going to look like? It's hard to bust when you're accurate. So I don't see him busting, quote-unquote busting. because he's going to be a better player than Case Keenham. He's probably, you know, just as good of a player as Kirk Cousins. Like maybe he doesn't become a pro-baller, but he's playing in the league for 10-plus years.

Worst-case scenario. And, you know, I don't really see a worse, like, worst-case scenario to me is probably somewhere in the middle. He maybe doesn't win as much as he should, but he's going to play in the league for a long time. Deshawn Watson. You know, I think there's some sort of Steve McNair, This athlete, but he makes plays with his arm.

McNair probably had a better arm. I originally wrote down McNabb, but when I first got a job in Philly, I remember sitting down with Dew Staley, and he showed me some late 90s film. I mean, Donovan McNabb, if he was a baseball pitcher, was throwing like 100 miles an hour. Deshawn watches not have a great arm.

Now, Steve McNair had a pretty good arm too, so I don't think he has as good as arm of any of these guys. But there's just, like McNair, I remember watching him with the Titans. We all do. There was just something special about him, who's just kind of a gamer. I think there's just something

kind of special about DeShan Watson. And there has been since he was in college. Dabo, you know, probably the second best coach right now in college football. You could argue at this moment in time, he's a better coach because he beat him the last time they played than Sabin. But I still give Sabin the nod resume. The point stands. Like, is there hyperbole?

Or is Dabot just kind of telling you, I had this guy, I won Natty's. He's a superstar. I think that's what he was telling you. And clearly, Deshawn Watson, when he's played, they've been pretty damn good. I think the worst case, I'm going to use this guy a couple times, is like the shittier version of Alex Smith,

before he kind of like, probably what Harbaugh had. Because if you remember what Harbaugh had, he got a lot better with Andy. Harbaugh had a guy throwing for a couple hundred yards, his arm limited him. But again, Deshawn's already better than that. Kind of like Baker, I have a hard time seeing Sean Watson not being a good player. I mean, he's just, he's already a good player. player. That's why my Alex Smith

comp for this next guy, Marcus Marriota, fits to me the best. I tweeted this a couple years ago. I said, maybe Marcus Marriota is a better version of Alex Smith. And Titans Twitter, which I didn't know at the time, is basically, would be like the equivalent of talking

crap about Taylor Swift. I mean, they came after me. I said, you know, he's Alex Smith, but a better version. And you know what? That's probably what he is. And I'm talking the Kansas City version of Alex Smith. That's Mariotta. doesn't say much great guy, high character

Alex is probably you know actually I think Maryo is really smart too I think they're both really smart they're just physically limited people forget but like the first three or four years

of Alex Smith's career in San Francisco he was always injured he battled a lot of injuries he missed a lot of games so maybe Marriota just kind of physically matures a little later and can stay healthy but I think there's a chance

that if he just busts he's just one of those guys and to bring this guy back, now he's a better version of this guy. But like certain players, Jake Locker is an example, RG3, whoever, and because he is kind of a runner, just always stay injured. Like there's a chance he just can't stay healthy. Patrick Mahomes. Well, I mean, we saw what he was. He's an elite player.

Like, his ceiling is clearly what we saw last year and probably even higher because he's still, is only his first year starting. His ceiling, you could argue, as Michael Jordan said, is the roof. what Michael was trying to say is there is no ceiling. There really isn't. I feel like pretty confident saying that this is not hyperbole to know that Mahomes kind of has the league by the balls. He can be, remember back 95, 96, 97, Brett Farve won three straight MVPs. Peyton won a ton of MVP.

He has a chance to win like three or four MVP's. He has a chance to have like an NBA career, like LeBron James. Just win several MVPs, help Coach Reed and the Chiefs. finally win a Super Bowl. I guess did the Chiefs win a Super Bowl back like Super Bowl 1 or 2? I guess the Packers won the first couple. They might have beat the Chiefs. My NFL history probably needs a little touch-up.

But as long as Andy's there, you know, I just don't see him busting. He's just too talented. You know, the only way I see him busting, quote-unquote, or not living up to his potential or not being an elite player for years, is if his ego and his head ever get too big. And the one thing, and again, he still, young, he hasn't been paid huge money yet. But the Kansas guys tell you, the thing

he hangs out on is like maturity. I mean, they love them. And their standard there is pretty high. Like they had arguably the best human in the league there for five years in Alex Smith. So that's their bar when they judge this guy. And they think he, they think that highly of him. Like I know for a fact.

So I just, I have a hard time seeing Patrick Mahomes not being a great player. Derek Carr, I think his ceiling is what we saw in 2016. He can be a Pro Bowl level. player. And I don't mean like he's made the pro bowl other years. I mean legitimately be a pro bowl first level pick and a guy that can help a team get to 10, 11 wins. And be the guy that had that season, I think, like seven or

eight fourth quarter comebacks. He has the arm strength. He has just the athletic ability. I wouldn't call him an ultra-accurate quarterback. He's a rhythm guy. And when he gets, confidence, he can light up any team. and what's his worst case? What we've seen in the last couple years? A guy that gets skittish, a guy who clearly has some injuries

in the back of his head, a guy who just doesn't play confident. I would say of all the players on this list, and some of them are young, so we don't have as much of a sample size. But when Derek plays confident, he's a top six or seven quarterback in the league. When he doesn't play confident,

he can look like a guy like, should we bench this player? He, to me, of all the players on this list has like the greatest disparity of his highs and his lows. Dak Prescott. You know, I think the best we've just seen what we've seen the last couple years.

He's a really solid starting quarterback. He's a good athlete. He's got a good enough arm. He makes plays late in games so he doesn't get rattled when he starts slow. We've seen that over and over. It's been kind of a consistent theme in his career. He can, I mean, no player can start slower

and then the second half looks like a different player. I think worst case, he just never really gets any better. He's kind of like a Jake Plummer type. You know, again, a good athlete, someone you root for, a high character guy, but just kind of leaves a little to be desired. But I think if he just stays at this level right now

and maybe improves his deep ball accuracy a little, he's a good player. I think Carson Wentz could become a better big bent. I mean, we saw it a couple years ago. He's a freak. He's like a much better version of Josh Allen. He's enormous. He's got a huge arm.

He can talk. Host defenders off him, a little Cam Newton-ish too. When he's on, it's just like, holy hell, what the hell is this? And then I think the bad. Now, again, he was coming off an ACL injury, but you saw last year he can just look inaccurate, just no rhythm, you know, when he's kind of got to pick defenses apart. Again, it was a year coming off an ACL, so I struggle to judge him too much, but that's all I have to go off right now.

If that's a little more who he is than two years ago, then you'd be a little concerned. and I think the biggest elephant in the room with him is just he was injured in college, towards ACL, had this back thing last year, can he stay healthy? James Winston. I just don't really see how he turns it around. I mean, really, I think he kind of is what he is.

And I've said over and over, Arian is the best coach for him, but there's a chance that it just doesn't work. Like, you can't, you know, they say it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks. Like, James has now been in a league, what's this, going into his fourth year, going into his fifth year?

He started a lot of games in the NFL He turned the ball over way too much Balls just sail on him downfield That's still something that happens to can You know, it's not the short or intermediate passes It's like past 20 yards The ball just sails It's like, who's he through? I mean, Kevin Garnett's not playing

wide receiver. Who the hell are you throwing it to? Now again, if anyone could save him It'd be Ariens, but I don't know, I'm a little hesitant back when I had a radio show we used to talk to Warren Moon a lot because he was the voice of Seattle and we obviously talked a lot of Niners in

Seattle and he used to be adamant like he was one of the rare guys in his NFL career that was super inaccurate out of college and then as his career went on he slowly incrementally got more accurate so I'd say best case scenario

he's just one of those guys that we look up and it's like wow he's really cut down on the turnovers and become more accurate I'm just one of those people that bet against it. Jimmy G. To me it's pretty clear.

If he's healthy, he can be pretty special. He's got like, to me he can become like a, if he's healthy, again, biggest if on here beside like Marietta, Wince, there are some health guys on here. He's got like a Rogers type game. He's kind of an improviser. Rogers has a better pure arm, but, you know, 6-2, really good athlete, makes things happen outside of the pocket. It just gets in his rhythm, is really accurate, makes these just super wild plays.

And then I think if he fails, it's just strictly because he just always gets hurt. You know, if Jimmy plays, he's going to be good. If he's not good is because he'll be on injured reserve. And as of right now, he's been in the league five years. He started 10 games, and he's had two major injuries. So selfishly, I hope the Niners are... Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind.

Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real.

From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kier Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience

in the mental health field and conversations. with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it

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what? He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows, without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted

this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night to night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stopped by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too.

Steve Nash will get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball, like, after you go through a training camp with that, I said, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball.

So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clever Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being. an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game.

This linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue of 42. Hey, rep, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Hey, Miss Parker.

Listen to the Cliverts show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Good. Jimmy G. on the field. Do I think he'll be there? I don't know. I probably wouldn't bet on it. Jared Goff, I think he's already proven to be, like, his floor is pretty high. I think the comp for him is probably Matt Ryan. I think there's some Matt Ryan. If I did put Rosen on this list, best case, I think he's got a little Matt Ryan into him too. And I think Jared Goff just can get a little better, but he's already good enough. Like, we've seen it. You're, you're,

if your team's like Jared Goff can be a starting quarterback and go to the Super Bowl Jared Goff's good enough to win with in the NFL and then if I did worst case like he's already better than Kirk Cousins so if for whatever reason the Rams don't like him in a couple years someone else would take him like Jared Goff's playing this league for 10 years

I mean he's he's getting a long leash because again his third year he led a team to the Super Bowl and he played pretty damn well I remember watching that Saints game during the season going God Jerry Goff's got really good. Now he's still you know, is he ever going to be great in the elements?

You know, he's not a great athlete, but when he's on, he's super accurate. He's a super high character guy. He's smart. I like him. I just don't see him failing. And the one guy I just thought of that I left off here would be Trubisky. Trubisky's a tough one because I think he

has some he just has some natural flaws. He doesn't have great touch on pretty basic, like, Red zone passes, some fade passes. He's a little more of an athlete playing quarterback right now. But I'll always be honest here. I'm biased.

Nagy's my guy. I just think having Matt Nagy around him, who's a quarterback, who's worked with all types of different quarterbacks now, from Mike Vic to Kevin Cobb to Alex to Mahomes and now Mitch, he's got a pretty wide range of players and been around Coach Reed for 10 plus years. I don't know if there'd probably be a better player to work with a hybrid. Like, Shanahan's and McVease, like pocket quarterbacks. Reed and the naggies, they like anything.

They'll coach Alex all day long. They'll play with Mahomes. You give them Andy Trubisky, Andy Reid would make Trubisky work. They don't mind. They're much more open-minded. They see a little more talent. They get a little Al Davis to him. You got a big arm, you got an athletic ability, you're a good guy.

Okay, let's see what you got here. So I think best case, Mitch Trubesky just becomes a winning player. I don't really know exactly his comp because he's got a stronger arm than Alex Smith. He's probably a little bit more explosive. You know, like an explosive runner, like when Aaron Rogers was younger, he could run around. Josh Allen on here can run around. He's not Lamar Jackson, but he definitely can move. And I think worst case scenario, he just never gets any better.

You know, and I think we'll have a decent feel after this year. like anyone can throw a five touchdown game against a really shitty team. To me, it's not about the super highs. Not that those are bad. I mean, you want five touchdown games. But can you just put together a good season? Because if you're a good player, through 16 games, you're going to have a couple stinkers.

But can, you know, of your 16 starts, can 13 of them be winning football? And, you know, if your team's good, you should win 10 or 11 games. And last year, clearly, they depended much more on the defense. They should have. They had the best defense in the league. But this year, can it become a little more balanced where it goes, damn, you know, even if the bear's defense wasn't as good, they'd still be winning with Mitch. And I think that's the number one goal. These days,

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Okay, some AFC West over unders. Let's dive into it. Clearly the Chiefs who have won this division now, a couple years in a row, are the heavy favorites. At minus 160, they have the defending MVP as a quarterback. They kind of have this unknown with Tyree Kill, but it's pretty clear that he's probably not going to get suspended long. Their big Achilles heel this last year, and really the last couple years has been their defense. If people forget, like all the Chiefs have been an offensive team the last couple of years. years. But when Coach Reed first got there and Bob Sutton came with him, they were a defensive

team. Remember that the one year when they didn't have a wide receiver score, when he got there, they had Justin Houston, Tom Ball Lee, Don Terry Poe was still good, Derek Johnson was young, Eric Barry was sweet. They were good. They drafted Marcus Peters. They were a defensive heavy team. So I do think they can transition back to somewhat being a little more balanced. They did sack the quarterback a lot. Now they got rid of D. Ford, but they added Frank Clark. Chris Jones, you know, I saw a P.F. Pro Football Talk headline that they're still, I don't know what's going to happen there. They need Chris Jones. I mean, he's one of their better players. But to me, they're over under's 10.

You know, I'd say worst case scenario, that's a push. They're a 10 to 12 win team. I mean, they're just, is Patrick Mahomes your quarterback. If Patrick Mahones plays 16 games, I don't see any way they don't win 10 games. They have an enormous home field advantage. They kind of are in this Super Bowl window now these next couple years. One of the better coaches in the league, offensive just minds. Spagnola, who knows? He can't be as bad as Bob Sutton's been the last couple years.

It's not all of his fault. I mean, their personnel, they got rid of Marcus Peters, who it was the right time, and then Eric Barry got hurt. They added the Honey Badger, which, I mean, Honey Badger might be my favorite player in the league. I just love everything he stands for. So I think they're going to be incrementally better on defense. Probably won't. I mean, it's going to be hard from the homes to matches year.

But if somewhat they get a little more balanced, I think this is a borderline lock playoff team. I like the over. Now, the value, though, is probably you get the chiefs at minus 160. So you've got about $160 to win $100. The Chargers, who I think finished with what? The same record? I guess maybe they had one less loss because they were a wild card team.

But you can get them right now. plus 190 to win the division. To me, that's where the value is. Because I'd say on paper, I would rather have Mahomes than Rivers. But then the next 50 guys, you could argue the Chargers, they might have the best roster in football.

Now, coaching staff's all back. The question, one of their key players is holding out. He's a running back, who running backs are replaceable, but this guy catches 50 plus balls in their offense, runs for about 1,000 yards. It's a really good player.

Melvin Gordon's a really good player. Elvin Gordon's a really good player. That being said, they got a lot. Hunter Henry's coming back off the injury. Keenan Allen established himself as one of the best players in the league. Mike Williams really came on last year. Their offensive line is much improved. Their defensive line, I mean, they got multiple blue-chip players.

They've just, they got multiple good defensive backs. They're just good. I mean, there's no disputing it. They're over-unders, nine and a half. To me, it feels like these two teams are playoff teams again. I think the only question is, it's one of the bigger wins in Philip River's career, that Thursday night game when he went to Arrowhead and got that win,

just a remarkable win by Rivers. But it's just who's going to win the division? I would lean the Chiefs, but I think the Chargers are pretty damn good. To me, a differentiating factor in this scenario is that one team has a home field advantage. The Chargers play in front of the Home Depot Center, which tends to be not even a home game. So I think that's a big reason why this team probably won't win 13 games, probably end up at 11.

So I'd say it's a coin flip. To me, the values on the Chargers. These next two teams are pretty interesting. The Broncos. You just talk to people in the league. They go, on paper, and I agree, their defense is pretty good. They have a Hall of Fame pass rusher in Von Miller.

They drafted a guy last year at number five overall who looks like he's going to be a badass. I mean, Bradley Chubb might be shortchanged him. 11 sacks, might have been 12 sacks. Really, I mean, those two guys are pretty dominant. Guess who their head coach is now? Vic Fangio, who is as good of a coach with past rushers as any in the league. Those two guys are going to kick ass and take names.

Their defensive unit is just good. I mean, Chris Harris is a good player. I expect them to be good on defense. Why? Because Vic Fangio's defenses are good. The question mark here is offense. They have an offensive coordinator who was Kyle Shanahan's quarterback coach. They got Joe Flacco.

You know, Philip Lindsay last year was a pro bowler as an undratchezarchic free agent. his thumb, how healthy is he going to be? Emmanuel Sanders, their best wide receiver, was also injured. Their offensive line has kind of been a question mark. You got Lord Elway, who's always kind of like Al Davis Jr., but he doesn't own the team, but he has

that type of juice. He's always in the coach's box, listen to the play. He's kind of intimidating. Fangio's a little old school. Not going to be intimidated by him. He's also never been a head coach. They're over under seven. Clearly, I don't think they're going to suck. They just got too much

talent, but I don't think they're going to compete to be a playoff team. They're just not dynamic enough on offense. I actually think seven feels like the right number. This feels like a push. I just think they're 7 and 9. When I think, close my eyes, think Denver Broncos, 7 and 9. I think 8 and 8 or 9 and 7 would be

a major success. I just struggle seeing them score enough points on offense. And I know, flackos look great, flakos look great. He's rejuvenated. Elway says he's got football left. Yeah, I'm going to red flag that. I just, I don't know. then the Raiders, who are the Hard Knocks team.

They have banned me from all activities, which is fine. You know, we don't always see eye to eye. That's okay. I'm a big boy. I can take it. They upgraded a wide receiver. I mean, they got the best wide receiver in the league, Antonio Brown. He is a stud. They added Trent Brown to an offensive line last year that really fell off a cliff because Donald Penn got injured and they had to start this rookie third rounder

Brandon Parker, who was going to get Derek killed. so they signed Trent Brown. They did a smart move. They left him at right tackle because Colton Miller is a left tackle. Now is Colton Miller any good? I don't know. Colton Miller could also get Derrick Carr killed if he doesn't get better. Tom Cable has a long kind of recent history of not being good with offensive linemen.

Their center is elite. Rodney Hudson. Gabe Jackson, solid right guard. Richie Incognito, who I can't believe they signed, but they got Al Davis. This guy is really Al Davis Jr., in John Gruden does not care about character. So Richie's going to get suspended for the first two games. I mean, he is suspended, but he's going to come back.

Say one thing for Richie, I'm pretty sure he's made like a Pro Bowl five of his six last seasons that he's played. Now, again, he gets suspended, he's in and out, but when he plays, he's really good. He's also a little older, but that's a draft that first round running back. To me, defense is the major question mark. Their defensive line is terrible. I don't think Arden Key's very good. Their best pass rusher last year was probably Mo Hurst, who should just be a solid NFL player.

They over-drafted Drafted Cleveland Farrell. Their pass-russ is not going to be very good. Their linebackers aren't going to be very good. Their DBs actually might be decent. They draft Jonathan Abram in the first round. They signed Lamarcus Joyner from the L.A. Rams, who's a good slot Nickel Corner 2. He can come down and cover the slot. Gary Ann Conley, who they drafted a couple years ago, who fell to them after their playoff season.

because that girl claimed that he raped her. Turned out it was all a lie. He's got a chance to be an elite player. They drafted another guy in the second round because they had so many picks from Clemson. They also have a couple guys from last year that they like. Their secondary actually is not terrible, but if you have no pass rush,

it's hard to be going on defense. They don't have much speed at lineback. I do think they're going to be a lot better on offense just because they should be able to protect Derek. They have a first round running back. Josh Jacobs, who's a good player. He can also catch the ball, Antonio Brown, to go around Tyrell Williams.

It should just be a little more explosive on offense. They're number six. To me, I like them six or seven. I would lean either push at six or maybe the over at seven. Last year was a disaster and they went four and twelve. So I would say they should win two or three more games. It wouldn't shock me if they went seven and nine. Now the counter, because them and the Broncos basically have the same odds to win the division at 12 to 1.

I would not bet on either to win the division. The problem for the Raiders is their schedule is impossible. I think they go on a stretch. It's 45 days where they don't have a home game. Because they're moving, they have to give them a home game every year. They're going to London. It's just a crazy stretch. It's got to be unprecedented in NFL history.

But, you know, the Raiders are used to weird shit, so maybe they overcome it. You know, I would be less shocked to see the Raiders win eight games, probably than the Broncos now that I think about it. Though I would bet neither do. But I could definitely see the Raiders going over the number six and getting to seven and seven and nine. And I'd say that would be a pretty successful season for John Gruden and the Hard Knock Squad.

So I like the Chiefs and the Chargers over. I like the Broncos as a push and I like the Raiders as an over. And to me the value here is picking the Chargers to win the division. just because the Chief's odds are terrible. I mean, they're the heavy favorites to win the division.

I do think, just on paper, charges are pretty damn good. Okay, let's bang off a couple quick Middle Coff mailbag questions. We're already about 55 minutes into this pod, so we'll just do a couple. Maybe I'll save some for later in the week, or maybe I'll just answer you directly

in direct message. Your thoughts about Jalen Hertz at Oklahoma and your thoughts about OU's new five-star quarterbacks, Spencer Rattler and Brock Vandigriff. Well, I know my guy Drew Hill. I don't know much about Brock, but he told me that Spencer Rattler is pretty damn sweet.

And clearly Oklahoma's got a pretty good feel for quarterbacks. I don't know if you've heard of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Murray. I know this about Jalen Hertz. They love him. I mean, he's a super high character, hard worker leader. They feel very, very good about all that. And listen, they're going to be high on them. I just know I'm not the biggest fan as a quarterback.

Now, I can't even think of his name. Lincoln Riley is kind of the quarterback whisperer. You know, Alabama's gone to national championships with this guy as the starting quarterback. Now, a major difference is Alabama plays defense. In Oklahoma, traditionally, hasn't played that much defense. Now, they hired a big-time defensive coordinator, the guy a couple years ago who was at Washington State

with Mike Leach helped them start kicking ass. who went to Ohio State, so I think they should be a lot better. I'm, I think, you know, 11 and 1, that type year. Tech's going to be a lot better this year. TCU's not going to suck as much. It's going to be a little bit harder of a conference. Do you think people are out on the Ravens too quickly in the AFC North? They had a great run game in the past two seasons,

and even when teams know that it was coming, it was hard to stop. I agree. They're as good of a running team as any in the NFL. Running the ball is not going to be their problem. They're going to have two problems in my opinion. One, passing the ball, consistently passing the ball. And I'm not talking about hitting past plays. Lamar Jackson can hit past plays.

I'm talking about must passing downs. Third and nine, can you complete a ball when the entire stadium knows you're passing? You know, third and six, can you complete a ball? Late in the game. I just, I don't think he's a good enough passer. And I just think defensively, while they're still going to be good, They kind of have an ethos and a culture with the Ravens. They play defense.

But they lost a lot of good defensive players this off season. They're not going to be as good. So if they're not a top three or four defense and they can't really pass the ball, it's hard to be good. Though John Harbock and coach, they still got good players. They should be competitive. Hey man, just started to listen to the podcast. Excited to listen when football season actually comes.

Me too. What do you think Dak has earned from his three years of play? having watched him play every game in his pro career. I've seen him overthrow Michael Gallup so many times and started to wonder if he's doing it on purpose. He's not a great deep ball thrower, that's for sure. Dak has to realize the teams play more than it's, has to realize it's the team play more than it's his right.

You know, I thought that, but what a, I don't know if, if you're listening, Dak made some comments the other day that he thinks he deserves to be the highest paid quarterback because salary caps going up. Dak, I don't give a shit where the salary cap's going. At no point in time, at any moment in your career at this current state, should you be anywhere near the highest paid quarterback. Now, you have been an underpaid quarterback these last several years, but a big reason for your team's success is, one, the defense has been awesome,

and two, your running back is a freak show. So you're a good player, and you've done a good job, and I like you, Dak, but I know Colin talks about this a lot, and he's dead right. Dak, if you're smart, you could play, like, take five years, hey, go Jerry, listen, sign me up for a deal, five years, 70 guarantees, average 20 a year. That gives you money to sign Zique, sign Amari, sign Jalen Smith, and let's go compete for Super Bowls these next three or four years. Let's have one of the best teams in the league. Because what happens if you're the Dallas Cowboy quarterback?

I just watch the football life on Tony Romo. I think Tony Romo has two career playoff victories. you got a football life. Do you think if a guy from the Jacksonville Jaguars with two career playoff victories would have a football life? With the Arizona Cardinals, two career playoff victories,

getting a football life? Dallas Cowboys, you get a football life. Like, it's a game changer. So I think Dak, like I hate telling people to take less, but you make so much money as Dallas Cowboy quarterback off the field. Even if you're not that good.

And his team's already good, so he would make a ton. is a long one. Diehard Falcons fan living in the Bay Area. What up, brother? Julio Jones says Arthur Blank's word was given last year that he will get a new contract before the season.

With that, quote-unquote, agreement in place, what is the hold-up on a new deal? Didn't he get kind of a pay bump last year? You would think the team would already have an idea of what Julio wants, and then if the owner wants that deal done, it also doesn't sound like the front office has that much leverage. It's great that Julio is going to show up to training camp,

but if the process continues to draw out, would the team ultimately decide to trade him? If he doesn't get his new contract, soon I fear he could pull a levy on if he doesn't trust the organization to take care of him long term. As a fan, losing Julio would be right up there with the Falcons blunders with Vicks dogs in 28 to 3.

God, you guys have had some blunders. I would say that why wouldn't Julio trust the Atlanta Falcons? At every turn, they've done everything possible to one win and two take care of him. So I think Julio should trust Arthur Blank you know pretty strongly. Just like Dak, Dak, obviously Jerry loves you. He got rid of Romo for you.

Two, obviously Jerry is doing everything possible to win. Like some of these players, and I think that's like the LeBrona sports, they try to like hate ownership and hate management. Like I got news for you. You know what Jerry wants to win, do? is win. You know what management wants to do is win? They're trying to win. Like, if you work together with them, ask Steph Curry and how his relationship is with Bob Myers and Clay Thompson. Like, it's great. We trust him. He trusts us. We work together. And we try to win chips. Now, obviously basketball's a little different than football. But I think when you get a guy like Arthur Blank, who are Jerry Jones,

like, once they've proven to you, like, listen, I'm not lying to you. I got your back. Now, would I trust Belichick? No. Would I trust Howie? Probably not. But Jerry Jones, like, he's not going to screw you if he doesn't have to. If anything, he likes players too much over the years. Would Marcus Marriota be better off without the Titans in their coaching carousel? I did see that Mike Vrable said that he cut off his penis to win a Super Bowl, and they asked them, well, you've already won three, but he's like, well, I've been married for 20 years, so she's not like she even used it anyway. She'd probably cut it off for me. I like Mike Vrable. I'm trying to think who their

offensive coordinator is. I think it's a guy that they just elevated it after the floor left. I can't totally blame the coaching staff from Mariotta. Marriota just hasn't stayed healthy. So I would say no. The Titans have actually put Mariotta. They were in the playoffs a couple years ago. Then last year they were one game away and Marioa got hurt. I would say it's more on Mariotta than the Titans. My buddy and I run a podcast as well called Second Stringers. And on our last couple episodes, we ranked these five quarterbacks. Watson

Trubisky, Prescott, Wentz, Goff in terms of who we'd want running our franchise for the rest of their careers. Curious to hear how you'd rank them. Thanks, big fan, go Saints and Finns. Okay, Watson, Trubiskey, Prescott, Wentz, Goff. If I'm going on just who I like, I would go, this is kind of tough. This is really hard. I'd probably go, this is risky, but I'd probably I'd take Wents first, again, huge risk. I'd probably go Watson, Gough, Prescott, Trubisky. As we sit here, 715, 2019.

And let me just tell you, I like Dak and Mitch Trubisky. I like this group. I would go, Wence, Watson, Gough, Prescott, Trubisky. That would be my order. Don't feel great about it, but that would be my order. It's just my biased opinion or Seattle C.L.C. getting slept on a little bit. First and total rushing guards last season. Top five

quarterback. Great coach. Probably the best inside linebacker in the game right now. And some young studs coming off a season with more experience. Yeah, I think they're going to be good. I mean, they were a playoff team last year. Two years ago they missed, and they were still 9 and 7. Like you said, they still got Russell Wilson.

They got two good running backs. They drafted DK. They still got Tyler Lockett. Defensively, they did lose their second best defensive player in Frank Clark. Still got Bobby Wagner. They have the Pete Carroll culture. I've been saying over and over, I think 9 and 7 might win the NFC West. And I think, you know, if Jimmy stays healthy, it'd probably be a three-team race. You know, now that Todd Gurley is not the same,

I think if you go 10 and 6 to the NFC West, you win the division for sure. I don't think Seattle's necessarily being slept on because they've made the playoff six in the last seven years. I think if you ask most people in the NFL, they just tell you, Seattle's pretty damn good. What are your thoughts on summer league for the NFL similar to the NBA? The league could be seven-on-seven passing league that these skill guys grew up competing in. This would get younger guys' reps and young coaches' reps as well.

What are your thoughts? Well, I think that's what OTAs is. I know a lot of you guys listening don't get the chance to go to OTA practice because you need a media credential, but I got news for you. You're not missing much. But it's just live reps. That's what, to me, that's what the off-season is. if you went to off-season, like Summer League is basically just OTAs for the NFL.

It's the same thing. But in basketball, like, the difference in basketball and football is if you get 10 guys, you can just go to a park and play a legitimate basketball game. You can't just really play a pickup football game. And it'd be hard, I guess I see what you're saying, like seven-on-seven leagues would just teams, maybe play it like a neutral site. You know, I don't know if the league would want to show. the routes

versus other players like in the NBA you know if Zion's playing against Jaron Jackson Jr. That's playing against Ari Hootramura you're not gaining that much

off Summer League in terms of scouting reports but if I roll out like my legitimately starting lineup you know if I'm Hoet team you know if I'm the Cowboys and I roll out Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper and I'm playing you know the Giants like I might be able to

pick up some things on Amari or vice versa. So I don't think the NFL, like in basketball, that type stuff's not as important. Like, you can either, I'm either going to go for 30 on you. Your scouting report, especially during the regular season, doesn't make that big of a deal. And the NFL games really matter. So I like where you're going there, but I don't think that's realistic. Do you think San Francisco has the best nurturing running back in the NFL and Matt Brayda? Is there any shot he or McKinnon gets moved before the season to address the areas of needs,

other areas of needs on the roster. If all three stay healthy, how do you think the per game touches would break down? Well, I think they would just use those three running backs, because they only have two receivers that I really like. That's Debo and Pettis. They have a tight end who's sweet and kittle, and then they don't really have anyone else. They're going to need Jerich McKinnon, Telvin Coleman, and Matt Braida to play a lot. I mean, they're going to throw that guy the ball a lot. And hell, I think that you could put,

you definitely could put McKinnon, and even Coleman has been a very productive pass catcher. put them in the slot. So I think they're going to need all three of those guys. Because when you're at practice, like Markey's good one, I don't trust as far as you could throw him. I know he won the 40 dash contest. But again, just because you run fast, like can you play? And he consistently gets injured.

So I would say that all three of those guys are kept. If I haven't answered your question, I'll either answer it on DM this week or I'll just answer it on Friday's podcast. I appreciate you listening. Football right around the corner. It's late. I've been burning the midnight oil. It's about 9.45.

I'm going to hit end, get myself some sleep. Enjoy the week. Football is back. Peace. If you work in IT, you'll want to check out ChangeMakers, a podcast, profiling IT industry leaders. We dive deep into IT profiles and learn what it takes to drive large-scale IT transformations for successful businesses. Visit changemakers.freshworks.com. If you work in IT, you'll want to check out ChangeMakers, a podcast, profile.

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That's events and adventures.com. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. And every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story.

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help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the 4th.

And on my podcast, The Cliverts show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue 42. Hey, rec, my mama wants you to wave at her.

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