The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Middlekauff - Baker Mayfield, Khalil Mack, Preseason Thoughts and Mailbag

Episode Date: August 10, 2018

Subscribe here to the 3 and Out with John Middlekauff Podcast https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff/id1352730623?mt=2. 3 and Out with John Middlekauff, is part of the Colin Cowherd Podcast Network. 3 and Out is an unfiltered podcast covering the biggest stories in the NFL and college football. John brings his unique perspective as a former NFL scout, NFL analyst and radio host. In this week's episode John talks about Baker Mayfield, the recent article in The Athletic on Khalil Mack, gives his thought for the preseason and tells you the things he would buy in football if they were stocks. Each week John also answers listener questions from the Middlekauff Mailbag. Follow John on twitter @JohnMiddlekauff and go to theherdnow.com to find the latest content. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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It wouldn't be a huge surprise if our team ends up in the quarterfinals or potentially a great run into the semifinals. Listen, Inside American Soccer with Tom Bogart and Tab Ramos on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast. What's up, everybody, John Middlecombe on the three-and-out podcast. Brought to you by Colin Coward's Podcast Network. This podcast is brought to you by theathletic.com and neutrafall.com. We've got a big show today. I'm going to touch on Baker Mayfield, Hard Knocks, debuted Tuesday night. We're going to dive in a little about this Khalil Mack situation.

It feels like it gets a little more tenuous every day. I'm going to do something new today, a little Jim Kramer style, buy, buy, buy, and sell, sell, sell on some things around the football world. and get a little nerdy, you know, and why the preseason matters and a little how the preseason is viewed from a front office standpoint, and of course, we'll get to the Middilkoff mailbag. Some people have been getting mad at me in the Middlethoff mailbag

because I said that you can Instagram me, like you can go to Instagram and at John Middlekopf and leave DMs and I'll answer them, and some people were like, I left my question on iTunes. You can also do that, leave your question on iTunes. I'm not an accounting major, I might miss you. If I do, you just have to resend it.

I don't mean to. I just, you know, I'm not, this isn't a perfect system yet. So you can go to iTunes, leave your, in the review section, a question, and I will answer it. You can go to Instagram at John Middelloff, and I will also answer it, and we'll do that at the end, like we do every show. But I got to start with Baker Mayfield. Sometimes they say you got to be careful who you follow in life, and you see this a lot in sports, right? Like you do not want to be the person, and it looks like it's going to be Josh McDaniels, that follows Bill Belichick. You do not want to be the coach at Alabama that follows Nick Saban.

But I would have said a long time ago that you would not have been wanted to be the coach that followed Mark Jackson of the Golden State Warriors. Had two back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in like 40 years. I would have said like, God, who's going to run Apple after Steve Jobs done? that's going to be pretty tough. Well, it turns out, actually it wasn't. The company was absolutely rolling. It was like an avalanche of cash rolling downhill. And you know what Tim Cook's done?

He's printed cash ever since. Now, if you look at less moon viz right now at CBS, I don't know if you've read the news, but he's in a lot of shit. He might end up losing his job. Depending on who you ask and who you follow on Twitter, he's widely regarded as the greatest, you know, network executive in the history of America. I would not want to follow Les MoonVez.

Not because the business is really that complicated. Well, in 2018, relative to Les MoonVez and CBS, cable is dying. Network television is dying. The game is completely changed. Unlike Apple, when Tim Cook showed up for Steve Jobs, it was the perfect storm. It is the complete opposite at CBS. They are screwed big picture.

I got news for everyone. They are in trouble. The network is in trouble. No one is watching network television shows. I would not have been wanted to be the guy that followed Jim Harbaugh. Now, Jim Tom Sula might have been the worst NFL coach I've ever personally seen. So he couldn't have followed Jim Tom Sula. Jim Tom Sula could not have followed Jim Tom Sula.

But even Kyle Shiamahan, who was, who I think is the best young coach in the NFL. I would take Kyle Shanahan for the next 10 years over Sean McVey. Some people may disagree, but I feel pretty confident on that. I'm taking Kyle. It would not have been the same if he would have followed Jim Harbaugh the following year. Last year he started one and nine. Obviously, then got Jimmy Garoppel and everything changed.

But when you look at Kyle Shanahan, a couple coaches removed that took all the bow and arrows for the Jim Harbaugh debacle, Kyle Shanning had some pretty good shape. Even when he was going one in nine, everyone around the Bay Area was like, damn, Kyle's pretty good. Look at Kyle dialing up some plays. It would not have been the narrative and the conversation had it been the year removed. Luckily, he followed Jim Tom Zula and Chip somewhat fraudulent Kelly.

And I think when you look, it's a little different because he's not necessarily following him on the same team. but LeBron James now has left the Cleveland area for the second time. And I think they just kind of tipped their hat to him this time around because he brought him a championship and they get it. Well, Baker Mayfield, who is now going to be the most famous person in Cleveland for the next several years, and if he hits and becomes a legit starting quarterback and get this team back to the playoffs, he will be the most famous guy in Cleveland. It might be the perfect time to follow LeBron James.

Because of scorn fan base is probably the wrong word, but a desperate fan base. Just for any relevancy. Baker's the perfect balance of polarization of a good player. Their team, if you watch Hard Knocks, they are good. They have a lot of talent on their team. You know, if Baker Mayfield would have followed LeBron James the first time around when he bounced to Miami, it probably would not have gone well. The team wasn't equipped to handle them.

They had poor management. This time around he shows up. John Dorsey, who was the GM, who Andy Reed gave pretty much full autonomy to, of a playoff team five straight years. Or I think they made the playoffs five out of six years. I guess he wasn't there last year, so he would have been responsible for four of the five playoff rosters. John Dorsey, big time.

I'm not the biggest Hugh Jackson guy, but when you look at his coaching staff, Greg Williams, has been a Super Bowl defensive coordinator. Todd Haley has led one of the best offenses in the league for the last five years with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Like, Hugh Jackson's coordinators are pretty legitimate. Baker Mayfield, who is talented, who will eventually start,

and who Cleveland will anoint. I'm not saying he's going to be LeBron James. He is not going to be that famous, more than likely, unless he becomes Tom Brady. But Baker Mayfield may be entering the perfect storm because it is not an easy city to enter, They are perpetual losers. They lose all the time.

And there's a negativity and an elephant in the room that we're going to fail 24-7 in that city when it comes to the Cleveland Browns. That narrative changed with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and it turns out it was just because of LeBron. But this might be the perfect time to show up. Change the culture and be a part of this wave that's kind of already rolling. And listen, I feel bad for the guy that takes over for Nick Saven. is how much money that guy is given, he'll never live up to Nick Savan's standards, success, and the fan base will never truly embrace him. I promise you that. Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels has somewhat of a chance just because of his familiarity with the fan base,

but that's going to be a pretty tough job. Whoever takes over for Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo would have had somewhat of a chance, but that's going to be very, very difficult. Jimmy Garoppolo, now that he's the quarterback in the San Francisco 49ers, after they went through Brian Hoyer and the Kaepernick debacle and Blaine Gabbardt, it was like Joe Montana walked back through the doors. Is he maybe a little overvalued? Did the hype probably a little too strong? Maybe.

I talked about him last week. Is he overrated, underrated? He's probably properly rated. But around this area where I live in the Bay Area, Jimmy's probably a little overrated. Baker, would I have taken him number one? No, bold move. but I will not dispute Baker's talent. And you watch a couple, and I know they're just highlights,

but some of the clips in practice of the Cleveland Browns, the little dude can sling it, and he's really accurate. He's entering the Cleveland Browns and the Cleveland area at the perfect time, because if this was five years ago, I would give him no chance, I repeat zero to succeed. But this, his success rate, given the talent that's around him, giving the city's willingness to embrace him,

a scorned fan base, a scorned area, with LeBron leaving them again, that they are just happy he's here. If he is just solid, Baker Mayfield's going to be a rock star in Cleveland. Okay, this one's close to my heart because every week we do a segment sponsored by the Athletic and Tim Kawakami, who I work for at the Athletic,

who is the boss and the editor-in-chief at the Athletic, who covers the Warriors, unlike anyone else, around the Bay Area, but is very, I mean, extremely, was as locked in on the last five years on the 49ers as anyone, not really close around this area. And he's close with Mark Davis and knows the Raiders like the back of his hand. He recently, yesterday, the last two days, Tuesday and Wednesday, if you're listening to this on Wednesday, the Raiders joint practiced the Detroit Lions. They play them at the end of the week in a preseason game, and Tim went to practice.

And Theathletic.com slash J.Mittal to get your 40% off $3 a month, $36 a year. It's just an incredible deal. I also have an article. We'll get to that here in a minute. And Tim kind of went over the Kaleel Mack situation. He talked to general manager Reggie McKenzie. He even stopped Mark Davis. He was snooping around.

And he brought up several good points. And one big elephant in the room in the Bay Area right now. And I think just talking to people around the league, one question is often asked and posed to me. Does Mark Davis have the cash on hand? The NFL owners is a country club of super rich people. But even in that country club, there are some owners that are richer than others. And there's no owner that is less cash rich than Mark Davis in the NFL.

Now, that could change when Las Vegas comes around the corner. Hell, Jed was not rolling in money before Levi Stadium. Levi Stadium happened. now he prints cash. So Mark Davis and Reggie McKenzie, specifically more Reggie McKenzie, was asked about this Khalil Mack situation. And they really kind of circumvented in their comments. And Tim raised several questions.

He thinks that Mark Davis has the cash on hand to give Khalil Mack a $50 million bonus that you'd have to put in escrow immediately. The other thing that he brought up, and it really got me thinking, was, and I've heard this, and I think this is a fair question, With the Raiders, because they would be the first team in the NFL to allocate max money to a quarterback. Derek makes $25 plus million a year, and then $20 plus million to another player. From what I've heard, Killeal wants $21 million a year. So that would be about $46 million next year in 2019 for two players.

Give or take, depending on where the salary cap goes, about 25% of your salary cap would be allocated to two guys. Is that good business? And I think my first reaction is, well, if one of the guys is your quarterback and he's a pro bowler, you're always willing to max him out. If the next guy is a pass rusher, I can stomach it. But I do get the apprehension from the front office side. Is this worth it? There's only, to me, the more I've thought about it, the more I've written down different scenarios,

there's only one thing that makes sense. if you trade Khalil Mack to get rid of that potential albatross of a cap number of one player non-quarterback the only thing that you'd want to do with that money is use it on draft capital that's why to me at minimum if I was going to get rid of Khalil Mack and I'm John Gruden, Reggie McKenzie and Mark Davis I got to get multiple first round picks because that way I can get a player multiple players over a period of years at contracts that are cap-friendly, and if, you know, a team that's competing to make, those might be two picks in the teens.

Well, those, that number is, instead of $21 million a year, that number is $5, $6 million a year. Now, the counter is that guy, the likelihood that guy is as good as Kalil Mack is slim and none. Yes, but part of this is a financial decision. Because if you use that money that you save getting rid of Kalil Mack on free agency, we saw last year, Sammy Watkins gets $16 million a year.

Players that hit free agency, the players win in free agency. It is not a buyer's market. It is just not because the buyer in free agency has to spend such a premium, such a premium that if you were to use that $20 million next year, if you were to flip Kahlil and that saving and use it on, free agency, I don't think you'd get that much. You know, that is not the time to clean up. The time to clean up financially is in the draft.

But to me, you would have to trade them. You cannot trade Khalil Mack for anything less than two ones. That would just, I draw the line. Because the great part about the NFL is not the NBA. It's not a player's league, non-quarterback. If you're not a quarterback, I feel bad for you. Because you get nickel and dined. You just do.

If Khalil Mack was a quarterback, the deal would already be done. If Aaron Donald was a quarterback, the deal would already be done. If Levion Bell was a quarterback, the deal would already be done. But the moment you're not a quarterback, you just get nickel and dined. It's just a fact that happens every year. But if I'm going to get rid of this guy, a generational talent, and I have that 5% rule, there are two to three players on every roster non-quarterback. Some teams only have one.

Hell, some teams might not even have one, that are worth Max money. I think he's one of those guys. But I do understand if you wanted to sell high, You know, I do think Belichick would sign Khalil Mack. I always say, what would Bill Belichick do? But Tom Brady doesn't make as much as Derek Carr. So the scenarios are not, it's not apples to apples. To me, the only way to make it financially worth it is to trade it for sweet draft picks.

And again, there's still obviously clearly a risk in those draft picks never equal Kalil Mac. And I also think one big elephant in the room with the Raiders is they are in 100. 100% win now mode. So worrying about financial ramifications and implications on building the team when you have superstar players and you're entering a foreign market that's a small market that's never had a team, you spent all this money on the coach. I don't understand why you don't grab all of your chips and put them in the middle of the table and say let's freaking go.

And when you risk and you do a move like this, which again, The media will, if they were to trade Khalil Mack for multiple ones, the media would freak. But I don't put much stock into what the media says. It really, I disagree with them 99% of the time when it comes to player contracts, when it comes to trades. I'm rarely in agreement with their takes. If you told me tomorrow that the Green Bay Packers gave the Oakland Raiders, They're two first round picks in a second the following year. I would get it.

I would understand it. I would say, God, that's pretty bold move on both sides. But I would support it because it's a financial move. I don't necessarily agree with it, but I'd understand it. And I think if you're going to get rid of him because you struggle, you know, allocating these funds to two players, you have to get a haul, a haul. And Gruden showed this last draft that I,

I don't know how dynamic he is with trading value in the draft. So that would be my major concern of getting rid of Khalil Mack. And I do think there's a big picture financial risk if you're Mark Davis. You're heading into this new stadium. You have to sell a bunch of PSLs in a foreign market. I know you love to claim you're some global brand, but I watch you play the Patriots last year in Mexico. It was a home game for the Patriots.

And everyone my entire life has told me that the Oakland Raiders own Mexico. Well, actually, Tom Brady owned Mexico. I saw it. They were chanting Brady through my television. So this is going to be a crazy, I think, next couple weeks with Khalil Mack. My gut still says that he plays this year out of the fifth year option.

Next year they trade him on the franchise tag. I think there's still a slim chance they extend him. And I think there's zero chance that he doesn't play at all because he's not going to miss checks. But this is, you know, I'd say the biggest story right now in the NFL. It's Khalil Mack and the Oakland Raiders.

and you can read about it on theathletic.com backslash ham. And I've been, I'm biased. I had an article that came out on Wednesday morning that I just talked a little bit about, and we'll get into this next, just what happens in the preseason, how teams scout the preseason. I write from a scouting perspective

and talking to people in the league, general managers, my buddies scouts, you're not going to get that anywhere else. You're not going to get that in newspapers. You're not going to get that at other websites. and if you do go to other websites, you're just going to get, you know, taken back by the amount of ads and videos and pop-ups.

And that's the great part about The Athletic, is you subscribe to The Athletic, and I've been a subscriber from day freaking one. Theathletic.com backslash, or just slash, someone corrected me. It's not backslash, it's slash J.Mittal. There are no ads. It's, and you have access to the entire site.

And in the Bay Area, starting with Tim Kawakami, who knows the Raiders and the 49ers, in terms of management better than anyone. And you got Vic Taper covering the Raiders. You got Matt Barros now covering the 49ers. Tedna Wynn, one of our football writers, is just incredible writing from a scheme standpoint.

From a basketball standpoint, no one covers the Warriors better than the athletic San Francisco. I'll promise you that. You got Anthony Slater knows Kevin Duray. You got Marcus Thompson, no Steph Curry. The war, Ethan Sherwood Strauss, been covering this team forever. Steve Kerr, the best Warriors coverage in America starts and ends with the athletic. And then from a football standpoint, Adam Barros, you know, the last, I think within a month,

obviously I'm writing all the time. Tim Kawakami is going to be locked in. Marcus Thompson, the columnist, you know, also writes on football. If you like baseball, and I personally like reading baseball more than probably any sport, just reading about it. You ever heard of Ken Rosenthal, Jason Stark, Peter Gammon's, you know, some of the best baseball writers in the history of a America, they write for the athletic. They write for the athletic. And when you subscribe using my link, theathletic.com slash J.Mittal, you get full access to the site.

Over 17 NFL cities covered, college football, they have a fantasy football show or, you know, article that they just started this week, started Monday. We've got it all for you in The Athletic. It's got everything covered. And like I said, I have an article up there right now talking about the preseason, talking about what really happens in the NFL? Let's dive into that right now. Again, you go to theathletic.com slash j-middle to read my stuff,

to read everything I just listed. You get 40% off $3 a month. Can't beat that. I don't think people quite understand really what happens in the preseason and just how important it is. They say, you know, the best businesses are tight, connected communication is key everyone is on the same page everyone has worked in an office where you get emails people might be like three cubicles down to you yet

they don't communicate yet they only send you you know text you or communicate through emails and no one's ever on the same page and you know people are calling you know company X to try to do business with them but the other guy sales guy on the other side of the hall has already contacted them just no one's ever on the same page. And you see that a lot in the NFL. You know, head coaches and general managers aren't always thinking their thought processes are not always aligned.

People draft and claim players that do not fit the scheme. Well, the best teams, and it's what makes Bill Belichick so powerful, he does everything. If he ran a business, like if he ran a restaurant, he would be the business manager, he'd be the marketing manager, he'd be the chef, and he would be in charge of the ambiance all over the restaurant. He picks the players, he coaches the players, he hires the coaches, and he's in charge of signing the players to contracts. So he is such a big advantage.

Every other team is not like that. And I know firsthand, I obviously tie with Andy Reed and Brett Veach's new general manager for the last year. I think John Dorsey was the same thing, but I know for a fact, I don't know John Dorsey personally, I know Brett Beech personally. He is on the same page with Andy Reid. He thinks just like Andy Reid. He looks at players like Andy would look at players.

Now, that doesn't mean they're always going to agree, but he knows exactly what will work for Coach Reed. Having that is extremely powerful. For a long time, John Snyder and Pete Carroll were on that same page. It's clearly falling apart. I've seen it firsthand in the last 12 months. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan feel like they got a pretty good idea what makes each other tick and what they're each looking for.

I think that's the big question mark with John Gruden right now. What will him and Reggie McKenzie? How will they go about this process? For the next four weeks, there are 90 players on every roster, give or take a player. Well, only 53 guys make the final roster. You do the math. You do the math. That's 37 times 32. It's like almost 1,200 players are going to hit the open market.

That's a lot of players. Now, a lot of them are more likely to sell insurance than they are to play in the NFL. But there is a strong group of these players all over the league that are going to be practice squad guys. Then in a couple of years are going to be backups and then one day it will be starters. Within a year will be a starter. By the end of the year, will be a starter because of injuries. On solid teams, on playoff teams. And the best teams for the next four weeks are scouting these players,

are isolating certain guys that they need. Understand their own roster. And I just wrote about this. The first key this whole month is to understand your own roster. What are your strengths? What are your weaknesses? Who can you keep? Who can you do without?

Then from there, you can make moves on the rest of the NFL. But until you nail your own team, evaluate who the best eight offensive linemen are, who the best backup quarterback on your team is. All the other shit doesn't necessarily matter. But if you do that well, then going around the rest of the league, I don't think most people understand this. And this is what I wrote, I put it in print and I'll say it right now. Every pro scout, they divvy up, you know, you each get four, five, six, seven preseason teams.

And you watch from the previous draft, so this draft that just happened earlier this year, every fifth rounder to undrafted free agent, you evaluate them all. Some teams do fourth rounders too, because some, but fourth rounders are probably a lot less likely to get cut. But fifth, sixth, seventh rounders get cut every year and then obviously undrafted free agents. Now, some of those guys will also make the team. But you evaluate them. And sometimes you'll go, God, this guy might not make, you know, Team X

because he's a wide receiver and they got five legit wide receivers. They're going to try to stash him on his practice squad. But I think this guy can be our fifth wide receiver. And that is the key. You go out and you evaluate. And the communication from the top down, you know exactly what you're looking for. So you have to know your team well first.

Then you're also evaluating guys from previous team, you know, from previous seasons that may have been a fifth rounder that made the team last year. Well, every year they get an influx of talent. So that guy's spot might be in jeopardy. And then also, you know, one story I just saw this morning was Donald Penn has been asked to take a pay cut. He might not. And there are players like Donald Penn all over the league. Veteran players that have been longtime starters. that might just get cut for financial reasons.

Now, he's, I don't even know if he's going to play in the preseason, he's on pup. But players that will play in the preseason, you have to know that. Covering this league, like, you're basically a detective as a pro scout this time of the year. You're constantly going on Rotoworld, going on Twitter, updating injuries, following whatever teams you are following their beat reporters. Just information is power right now. but also knowing what you're looking for because you can waste a lot of time

if your team has seven legit wide receivers spending a lot of time watching the preseason teams that you've been allocated to do watching their wide receivers is somewhat of a waste of time and I'm not saying you don't watch them but you look at them differently if you're looking for a running back and you're watching the San Francisco 49ers

well you know if you read Peter King's MMQB a year ago that Kyle Shanahan loved Joe Williams well a year later Joe Williams is fighting for his roster life he probably is not going to make the team. Well, what if your team like Joe Williams? What if you like Joe Williams coming out? Is there a way that you can keep him on the practice squad? Because if you do want a player,

just because you make the 53-man roster on September 1st, if I claim a guy that day, the next day I have to cut someone to put that guy that I just claimed on my roster. So it's a very, very fluid situation for the next. I'm recording this on August 8th for basically the next 25 days. everyone, you know, beside your 25 to 30 core guys in your team, is fighting for their NFL lives.

And there are a lot of veteran guys, even in that core, that financial reasons might screw them and might get them cut. Now, usually if the guy's a good enough player, he's going to find a job immediately. So it's not that big a deal. But these next four weeks, and I was talking to a buddy yesterday, and he brought up a great point that I had kind of forgotten about, that when you're building, you're building, building your team in the NFL. Like, listen, everyone wants some sweet CEO, CFO, you know, and CMO in a company.

Just like everyone wants to start quarterback, start pass, rush, and some sweet wide receivers. Well, most companies are built on like the dude on the second floor, you know, not in the top corner office on the eighth floor, right? No different than football teams. Like your football team, yeah, Tom Brady is the most important guy in the team. but the four core special teams guys that play on punt, punt, punt, return, kick, and kickoff for the New England Patriots are really important too, right? I mean, they just are.

So when you look at these guys that are fighting for their roster lives, if you're a fifth wide receiver, a fifth corner, a backup linebacker, you have to play special teams, or you will not make the team, or you definitely will not dress on Sundays. So that is a, that's something, listen, I'm closer to a fan on this than I am, some NFL scout when it comes this,

I hate watching special teams. But it does really matter this time of year. It makes or breaks guys career. And so when you're kicking back over these next couple weeks and you're watching a preseason game and you see some dude just mollywap a guy on special teams and that you're watching your team, just go, keep an eye on that guy.

Or you see a guy's kick returner or punt returner and he's fumbling punts. You know, he's a six-round pick. He's in trouble. That's how you make or break your career. And the best teams around the league consistently know exactly what they're looking for. Bill Belichick has gone on record, and I do believe him. He watches every preseason game.

Why would you not? That's the entire league. That's your entire employee base. Of course he watches it. Now, it's easier for him because, I mean, I guess he just lost Patricia, but he's at Josh McDaniels forever. He trusts his coordinators, and he can allocate time to do different stuff. He's just so ahead of the game.

most people don't have that much time. So most coaches rely on their general managers to do all that legwork. And again, it's going to make or break your season in terms of the depth of your team, who you keep on your practice squad. Are you keeping the right guys? Do you cut a guy that you think you can stash that ultimately gets claimed and you lose them? This is a fascinating time from a team-building standpoint. And just the business of the NFL were the big boys,

the good GMs and the good head coaches and the good organizations separate themselves. Let's do a new segment today on football inspired by my main man. This is it. I'm going over the top. Right here. Right here right now. Jim Kramer, Mad Money. You see him on CNBC. Diehard Eagles fan.

I had the TV on in the background the other day on Mad Money, and he was just screaming, bye, bye, bye, bye. buy and I'm going to do a little sell, sell, sell, sell too. But I'm going to start on two things that I am very bullish on in football, that I would, if they were stocks, things that I would buy. Now, I had a firsthand experience. I made a bachelor party weekend into a work trip. That's what you do when you're a sole proprietor and you can expense things.

So I traveled out to Tennessee this spring, and my takeaway after one Tennessee Titans practice was this team's good. They were a playoff team last year. They beat Andy Reed and the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round. I think they upgraded it head coach. Their coordinator is a Shanahan McVeigh type guy. Mario daisy is coming off his worst season. They added Malcolm Butler.

They added Dionne Lewis. They drafted Rashon Evans, a middle linebacker in the first round. Their defense should just be a lot better. And offensively, I also think they're going to be a lot better. I would buy the Tennessee Titans. I think there is a decent chance that they end up. up winning the AFC South. I think they're a borderline lock playoff team depending on where you look.

I love their over-under. You know, you get it about eight and a half, nine. I think they're a double-digit win team this season. Tennessee Titans, I am buying. Zeke Elliott last year, his rookie year, he was dominant. The Cowboys made the playoffs and he kicked everyone's ass. Last year, feels like a disappointing year. I mean, it clearly was from a personal.

standpoint. He was suspended six games for something that happened with a woman. I mean, we don't know the details. I didn't feel comfortable suspending him based on a he said, she said, but I didn't have enough information. Bottom line, the NFL did and he got suspended. Well, in the 10 games that he played, he basically ran for 1,000 yards and had seven touchdowns and also added another 26 catches. I would expect Zeke Elliott to compete for the NFL MVP this year. I'd be shocked if he doesn't have 1,500 yards, 20s. the 15 touchdowns on the ground. You know, another 40 catching the football.

Whenever I watch inside training camp on NFL network, there's Zeeke. Looks like he's playing in Alaska with sweatpants on, a long-sleeved shirt, sweating it out, which I feel him. Being a chubby guy myself, you've got to sweat it out. But he's a freak chubby guy because he dominates on the ground. I really feel pretty confident that Zique Elliott,

I'm buying a lot of Zique Elliott stock. I think he's competing for the NFL MVP this season. Now, two things on the flip side. I'm going to sell, sell, sell. Start with Ohio State, the Urban Meyer situation. I say this all the time. I have a nickname for Urban. It's called Fraud Meyer.

Turns out Shelly, his wife, also fraud, Miss Meyer. He's a fraudulent individual. Elite football coach, a dominant football coach, a fraud human being. And the Ohio State situation is a complete and utter embarrassment. I don't know how it's going to end. I actually don't think he's going to get fired. but they are going to have this elephant in the room of negativity and just something that's going to be hard for them to shake

whenever he does come back off this administrative leave. Ohio State, I'm selling the program. I've been saying for a while, well before this story ever broke, I think Michigan's going to win the conference, but also when you look at Penn State and Wisconsin, those programs just feel a little more stable right now. Ohio State is just in shambles. The Jacksonville Jaguars.

Most people believe they have the best roster in the NFL. I think it's up for debate, but it'd be an easy top three or four roster in the NFL. I hate their quarterback. Blake Bortles is terrible. And I think everyone's just locking them in for another playoffs. I don't know, man. I think are they going to win double-digit games again, just a lock to do that? I can't see it.

I think the division has gotten a lot better. Andrew Lux back now. Like I said, the Tennessee Titans are better. the Houston, Texas of Deshawn Watson comes back and a bunch of their defensive players come back. They should be much more competitive. The Jacksonville Jaguars are not just going to walk through that division. I think they come back to Earth a little bit.

Now, I don't think they're a four or five win team, like typical Jacksonville Jaguar seasons. But I do think eight, nine wins and probably miss the playoffs. Every year we see a team that had made the playoffs that misses it the following year. To me, I'm selling and I'm picking, circling the Jacksonville Jaguars as that team. It's been decades since anyone made meaningful advancements in the hair health industry.

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You can go to iTunes or subscribe rate in the review section and leave a question. If I didn't get to you, I don't know, shoot me a tweet and it'll get to you. I probably miss some. Again, I'm not, my accounting on this is not perfect. You can also fire into my Instagram DMs, and I'll look through them and answer some questions. But I got a bunch, and I know some people got mad at me, said I was skipping.

I didn't mean to skip anyone. I'm just, this isn't a perfect formula here. So let's fire through some thoughts here. Let's see. Okay, we'll get with, Hey John, great work on the podcast. Love the work. Looking forward to the Miami coming,

coming to the athletic, Miami Hurricanes, and I think Miami Dolphins. Question. What are your thoughts about the Miami Hurricanes this season? Repeat success from last year, better, worse, thanks. I'll hang up and listen. I think the Hurricanes probably take somewhat of a step back. Would they start last year? Was it 9-0 before they play Clemson and just got Molly waft?

I think, listen, Mark Rick's resume speaks for itself. They are going to be really good. Willie Tagger, we'll see. I mean, a lot of hype on him at Florida State. I think that's probably a step down from Jimbo Fisher. Florida, Dan Mullen. I like Dan Mullen, but he's not Steve Spurrier or Nick Saban. Let's just pump the brakes a little bit.

I really think that Mark Rick can dominate the state of Florida. And when I say dominate, get them back to what they once were. Are they ever going to be the cream of the crop in America anymore? No, I do think he can win a national championship. Is he going to do it this year? No. It's going to be a little hard as long as Dabo Sweeney's there. but I do think, and again,

I do think Florida State's going to come back to Earth a little bit. So are they going to be better in Clemson this year? Of course not. Can they, you know, somewhat in like two or three years get to that level where they can be competitive? Yes, I bet on Mark Rick. They could not have done any better. Remember what an embarrassment Al Golden was several years back.

I think the Miami Hurricanes, listen, I'd say if they had a nine and three season, that would be pretty exciting. That'd be back-to-back pretty solid seasons for the first two years. And then I think come year three, year four, you can have massive expectations. Danny, John, every year after the draft, I pick all the game. And I think I did this question last week against. You know, this isn't a perfect formula here. This is a good one.

If Alex Horniebrook, I love that name, Alex Horniebrook, the quarterback for Wisconsin, takes his game up to a Heisman playing level this fall. Do you think they have a chance to go to the playoffs and possibly win the Natty? Thanks, Justin. I think the Big Ten is just stupid good. And like I said, a couple minutes ago, Ohio State's in shambles. I don't think necessarily they would have won the national championship or made the playoffs anyway, but you can never count them out.

I mean, they got Joey Boas's a little brother, Nick. And with Urban Meyer, if he's coaching, they're always going to be a factor. But I don't know what's going to happen with Urban. I think Michigan's really good. Penn State is going to be really good too. Now they did lose Sakewan Barkley. I think that either Michigan or Wisconsin represents the Big Ten in the playoffs. And I don't love Horniebrook.

I mean, whenever you watch them, just in terms of his arm is pretty terrible. But he does get it done. Chris is a good coach. They've always hung their hat on running the football. Their defense under Jim Leonard, that guy is a lot to be a head coach in the very, very near future was fantastic last year. Now, they don't have the athletes, and it was somewhat exposed against Ohio State. They just can't run with the elite teams, but they can hit you in the mouth.

And then when you try to get up, they'll hit you again. And that's really what they're going to hang their hat on. Now, if they get matched up with the Clemson or an Alabama in the playoffs, it's just a really, really hard matchup for them. And I even think Michigan potentially, you know, it's just they're going to have a lot of speed too. It's just hard for Wisconsin to hang with the elite skill guys, and it always will be. And it always kind of has been their downfall, but I do think this team has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. And if Wisconsin were to make the final four, nowadays, like if you don't win the national championship, but you make the playoffs, unless you're Alabama, that is a massive success.

So if they were to make the playoffs this year, it would be big time. I kind of like this. Please take a poll with your listeners about who they think Goodell voted for in the 2016 election. Listen, I say it all the time, and I say this about the NBA too. Rich people vote Republican. You know, most rich people, when you're making seven, eight figures a year, ain't voting for people to take money out of their pocket. So, you know, I know everyone, they say the NBA is just so liberal.

Yeah, I would imagine if you truly got a hold of everyone's voting records in the National Basketball Association, you'd find out a lot of people either ain't voting or they ain't voting for who you think they're voting for. And definitely in the NFL, a bunch of the rich guys. Rich people don't vote to have money taken out of their check. It's just, you know, that's just a fact. John, love the podcast and insight in the NFL. I read an article about the Raiders potentially trading Cleo Mac.

This sounds absurd but potentially true. Is this a sign that Gruden Heyer was a bad idea and which teams would trade for him? Really quick on the what teams would trade for him. If I was at Green Bay Packers, I would be all over him. I would give my two first-round picks for this upcoming draft for him. And the Sanford School 49ers, I would do the same. They don't have two first-round picks, but I would give my first-round pick this year and my one the following year. I think he's that big of a game-changer.

I do think when you look at Gruden's history, as I said earlier on the show, Donald Penn is now asked to take a pay cut. It's kind of a tenuous situation. Cleo Mac's not showed up. Martavius Bryant, who they traded a third round pick, does not know the playbook. He had been suspended for a year, was hanging on to his NFL career by a thread, and they gave up a third round pick for him. So, listen, I think Gruden's a good coach.

I think from an X's no standpoint and calling the game, he's going to be dynamic. But the NFL is more than that. And when you pay a guy $100 million, he's running your franchise. You've got to be dynamic with money and handling a players. and I think there are some red flags 100% through the first, you know, six months in terms of free agency, the draft, and now early on in training camp. Like, can John handle all this? And that's where it's going to be big for John to get a general manager one day that he trusts

because it's just, you know, Bill Belichick is an all-time outlier. He can handle everything. You know, I don't know if I see that with John. So I would say that John Gruden experiment, it's all going to matter about winning games. but it's harder to win games when you don't have as good of a left tackle, when you're star defensive end, assuming, you know, I don't know if they trade him. I don't think they end up trading him, but he's not here now. So if they, if Cleo Mac were to be gone, that's a little bit of a problem.

So yeah, I don't know, man. Could the Falcons get them? I mean, they drafted Vic Beasley in the first round. I'm not saying Vic Beasley's Cleo Mac, but would they, you know, would they offer Julio Jones in a first? I think that would be semi-fair. I'd do that if I was the Falcons. The problem is they got a lot of young players.

They're going to have to pay big-time cash, too. They just gave Mount Ryan $100 million. I don't know if it's as realistic for the Atlanta Falcons. Okay, last one here on iTunes. Then I'm going to bang out a couple on Instagram. Started listening religiously through the herd. The Athletic. I have a question for your mail bag, though.

Small sample size. Atlanta, for instance. What stops a no-huddle team from lining up skinny with whiteouts, yet deploying a fullback with a blocking tied-in, Mercedes-Lewis, then running it down defense's throats when

they cannot adjust? Your biggest fan. Packer backer for life. Stuck in Florida. I think that's what Peyton Manning kind of hung his hat on, if you remember. It's just you remember he would go four-wide and then if you gave him a look where you didn't

have anyone in the box, he would just check to a run. I think at the end of the day, one thing that I think we all struggle with, including myself, is just how complicated football is, how hard it is to change things on the fly, how hard it is. Like, if you came out and you spread everything out, and then you roll back with a blocking tight end and a fullback, and you start running it down to people's throats because you're spread out, a team would adjust, you know, and I think that's the coaching chess game. And I think a lot of coaches are just stubborn. A lot of quarterbacks can't handle.

You know, there's probably only five or six quarterbacks that are in full control, Peyton Manning style at the line of scrimmage to change out if they don't like a look to be able to check and change things on the fly. You know, a lot of things are easy in theory in football. It's just much harder to execute. And I've seen it firsthand with these coaches.

I don't know. I mean, I'm sure someone's thought. about it. It's just, it's easy to talk about it. It's kind of like a classroom. It's easy to say things, you know, the supply and demand. Well, what happens when they don't pay you, right? What happens when you sell something, but then they don't pay? That happens all the time in normal business. It's easy. Oh, the supply and demand curve. What happens if a storm wipes out the house and you don't have insurance on it? You know, what's the supply and demand of my market value of my home? things change so quickly and are so complicated.

There's so many variables that I'm with you. I'm surprised someone doesn't try that stuff, but clearly no one does. This is a pretty good one from Matt Rulon on Instagram. For the Middle Coffee Mailbag, do you think the Chargers will ever be the prominent team in L.A.? Or will they always play second fiddle to the Rams? Listen, I think the prominent football team in the city of Los Angeles

is USC football. Now, the Rams can clearly, you know, throw a wrench in that if they were to win a Super Bowl in these next couple years. They're building this massive stadium. It's Cronkies Palace. But I think there's a staple of USC football that I don't know if the ramps are ever going to sniff.

I think it's borderline impossible for the Chargers. There is zero chance. I repeat, zero chance for them ever to overtake USC football. I think it's basically borderline also impossible for them to ever be bigger than the Rams. They don't own the stadium. Cronky's got so much more money than Spanos. Spanos is viewed now as a tenant. To me, the Dodgers and the Lakers, obviously with USC football, are just on a completely different level.

In California, I do think if you win, if the Chargers were to win, let's say the Super Bowl this year, that means they would have playoff games in the Home Depot center. There would be a huge buzz, but LaBronk, Ron would easily overshadow them. If McVeigh were to be in shambles, he's such a big story. I think it's very difficult, and again, I don't think it's possible. I think there's just too much going on in Los Angeles. There's too many brands that are just so established and cemented as part of the culture that,

you know, hell, UCLA basketball, I think the San Diego Chargers, which I will continue to call them until you bury me, I will never view them as the Los Angeles Chargers. They are the San Diego Chargers. We'll never sniff. And I repeat, sniff the relevance of these other teams in Los Angeles. It's just part of it's Dean Spanos. And I just think part of it is just the brand of the charters.

They've always been viewed kind of a second fiddle. Okay, last, Colin talked a day or two ago about, about the rule changes, about the catch rule, and how they are good. But wouldn't it be better to make the changes the following offseason as opposed to 17 games of the same rules and then experimenting in the Super Bowl? So last year they kind of changed the rules of the game for the playoffs with the catch rule and then they've obviously carried that over this year. Listen, I don't think there's a perfect way to implement these rules, any of them.

Clearly the catch rule had to change, and I'm glad they changed it. But every year, and this is one of the NFL's biggest strengths, is they're always willing to attempt to adapt. They're always willing to attempt to improve. But sometimes they overcomplicate things and they overregulate things. Listen, I'm a believer. Let the market determine what's right and what's wrong. I believe that in business.

The cream's going to rise to the top. I don't want government involved in my life. This isn't a political show. I just believe this financially, as do most people I know that are successful in business. Let the cream rise in the market determine prices, everything. I don't like regulation at all. When it comes to business, I don't like it. I'm kind of like that with my football.

You know, it's pretty black and white. You know, and I think they're now over-regulating this tackle rule. Like, we know what a good tackle is and what headhunting is. We know what a catch is and what a catch isn't. Like, there are, clearly there are some subjective things with holding with pass interference. Those are, that's like a foul in basketball. It's hard to call that. I get that.

But to me, the tackle rule, especially in 2018, I know exactly what a tackle looks like, what a good tackle looks like and what a headhunting tackle looks like. Just like a catch. I know what a catch is, and I know what a catch isn't. So I think the NFL has overcomplicated this. They're like government. They've gotten too big and they like they like. their hands in too many different cookie jars, and it kind of throws everything up.

Now, you could argue, is that totally bad for business because it gets us talking about it? I, you know, I think somewhat is because it takes away the game of a guy, if he can't make a normal tackle, and again, they're going to claim that they're over-regulating this in the preseason, just like we had no clue, they had changed the rule last postseason. I think they make things a little harder than they need to be. just let things play out and stop overcomplicating things. And I think for the most part, referees, if you just said,

listen, call it what a catch is. If he catches the ball and has two feet down, it's a catch. If he drops it, it's not. If he leads with his head, it's a penalty. If he doesn't lead with a head, if his head's up and his eyes are up, it's not a penalty. They need to get back in that business when I was growing up. It was pretty black and white.

You caught the ball, you tackled the ball, a late hit on the quarterback. You knew it when you saw it, and you knew what it wasn't when he did it correctly. And they've gotten a little over their heads with all this stuff and made things just created such a conversation that probably didn't need to be there. Well, I appreciate everyone listen.

Just another three-in-out podcast. Football season is back. We're going to have pre-season games all weekend. I can't wait. You can listen. Like I said, I'm going to get to all your mailbag questions. If you left me questions in Instagram, I'm still working through them all.

This is not a perfect formula. I'm going to miss some. If I miss you, just hit me up again. That's a great part about social media. I'm always open for business. You can hit me up constantly. And I will get to your questions. But again, iTunes, 3 and Out, subscribe rate in the review section.

Follow me on Instagram. I'm constantly answering questions there too. I appreciate everyone listening. You guys are crushing it. Our numbers have been enormous. The 3 and Out podcast with me, John Middlecom, on the Colin Coward Podcast Network. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

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