The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Middlekauff - Is Jimmy Garoppolo overrated? Plus Sam Darnold and the Middlekauff Mailbag

Episode Date: August 2, 2018

Subscribe here to the 3 and Out with John Middlekauff Podcast https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/3-and-out-with-john-middlekauff/id1352730623?mt=2. 3 and Out with John Middlekauff, is part of the Colin Cowherd Podcast Network. 3 and Out is an unfiltered podcast covering the biggest stories in the NFL and college football. John brings his unique perspective as a former NFL scout, NFL analyst and radio host. In this week's episode John talks about the variety of NFL viral videos that are currently out there, whether Jimmy Garoppolo is overrated, recent Athletic read about NY Jets signing Sam Darnold plus answers listener questions from the Middlekauff Mailbag. Follow John on twitter @JohnMiddlekauff and go to theherdnow.com to find the latest content. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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God Biddlekopf, the three-and-out podcast, brought to you live by the Colin Coward Podcast Network. Back up at it again, Wednesday. Football. If you're listening to this on Wednesday, football is tomorrow. If you're listening to this on Thursday, football is tonight. Some of you might listen to on Friday, football was yesterday. Football is back, and we are not looking back because we will have steady football now. College is right around the corner.

A lot of the college programs are reporting all over the country up until the Super Bowl. Thank you, Jesus. A big show today coming up. I got some thoughts on some of these viral videos and what you really need to know when you're reading or watching things on television about training camp. I was at 49er practice yesterday. I wrote an article on the 49ers up on Theathletic.com. You can get a 40% discount if you use Theathletic.com backslash J. Middle.

$3 a month or $36 for the year. Best sports writing in America also includes myself. It's up and live. I'll touch on Jimmy Garoppolo. Colin had a rant the other day just on the analytics and factoring in the new NFL with defense. I'm going to touch some thoughts on that. I thought he made a pretty good point.

I think there are elements of it that are definitely true, and some that are somewhat false. And then I'll get into Sam Darnold finally reported that there was a really good article on the athletic that kind of broke down his first practice. And I think a couple things really stood out to me that why I think he's going to be really successful and ultimately change the Jets franchise.

But I've got to start with one thing here. During this time of year, and we'll also get to the Middilcoff mailbag, a little bit later. You can go into my Instagram. I'm going to answer some Instagram questions as well as iTunes questions. If you do not have iTunes, you can always slide up into my DMs at

John Middilkoff and leave a question in my DMs. And I've got a couple good ones, actually, I'll answer this week. But let me start with something. Training camp. And right now in training camp, there are a bunch of viral videos of guys getting smoked in one-on-one situations

and everyone has a good time with it. and, you know, the NFL network is going around all these training camps. We're getting all these good videos. And listen, it is fun. I talk about football for a living. I enjoy seeing it. I know you guys enjoy seeing it. We all enjoy talking about it.

When I worked in the front office, we would all huddle around the one-on-one drills, whether it be offensive defensive linemen, whether it be wide receivers and cornerbacks. But I got news for you. I was thinking about this this morning, like, you know, how could anyone relate? late to this. I've really only worked in office jobs in the NFL was my first, and college football, like office job. And the first thing you do on a job, right? The first time you get hired typically, now every job is a little different. You learn whatever that company software is. And you know, you like sit down at your desk, you got a brand new desk, and you realize like, you know,

it'd be like, you know, if you don't know Chinese attempting to read Chinese, you're like, this is impossible. But then a month later, six months later, a year later, that software you know like the back of your hand. But if I filmed you that first day or hell that first week trying to just input something from your boss or your manager on that computer, it would be impossible. It would literally be impossible. I remember just having so many problems. And this is the, I can't imagine it like Morgan Stanley, some of these banks, you know, some of these safe. You know, some of these safe. I mean I got friends here in the Bay Area that use Salesforce Oracle. I mean, I guess it's easy to use after you realize how to use it So when I see these Twitter videos of a dude getting smoked in one-on-ones

Especially these guys coming off a week or I mean a month's vacation I don't put that much stock into it also because the game of football the game of football is not played in a one-on-one situation this is not Russell Westbrook on a Saturday night in February playing the Sacramento Kings trying to score 75 points playing just him against the world. The game of football is played 11 on 11.

And I've heard Belichick, you've heard a lot of the old school coaches say this over the years, that ultimately, and you see this in the drill situation. And again, I love talking about the drills and the viral videos. There was a video the other day of Richard

Sherman just getting to destroyed by Marquis Goodwin. And it was fun. I retweeted it. I said, damn! But here's the reality. Richard Sherman, first off, before he tore his Achilles, could never run with guys like that.

Small little corners have always given him a problem. The other thing. In, for example, the 49ers defense, they play cover three. So there would be a safety roaming behind him. He would rarely be in a one-on-one situation where he is just on an island, especially now based on his physical attributes.

Second off, the game, it's not a realistic throw. There's no pass rush. There is no muddied pocket. Jimmy Garoppolo is not looking at anything else, except his wide receiver, who turns out to be an Olympian, flying down the sideline. And I'm not discounting how fast Marquis Goodwin is, how good of a throw it was by Jimmy Garoppolo,

who actually factored in if there was a safety. He put it on his outside shoulder toward the sideline, so it couldn't get picked off. But the point is, the game is not playing. like that and you see it a lot in offensive defensive linemen like oh my god check out the second round rookie smoking jason peters in practice like look at travis frederick uh body slamming the second round defensive lineman well and again i mean Travis frederick all pro these these guys are really good players so i put stock when really good players make plays in practice but i also the game is

not played that way the game has played offensive defensive lineman when you go through these one-on-one situations, the game is played, especially for that group, five on five, right? There are five offensive linemen, and they're usually four russers. So if you're a defensive tackle and you're going up against the guard, the center and tackle stop in the drill. So the offensive guard doesn't have to worry about bumping into other guys. The defensive tackle doesn't have to worry about running into his other defensive linemen.

The defensive tackle doesn't have to worry about a running back coming down and chipping off them. it's not a very realistic drill. And when I judge these players and I've seen it, I've been in these meetings. Here are a couple things that matter. These individual drills don't mean shit. They're fun to talk about and even coaches get excited.

But at the end of the day, no different than if you saw up that first day of work and you can't work the software, if three weeks later you're closing a million dollar deal for your company, no one gives a crap. If in a week, the dude that's getting smoked in one-on-one drills, whether it's rich, I just use Richard Sherman, it's happening all over the league. If that dude is making plays in the preseason game, or hell, he's made some plays in team drills.

But definitely the preseason game, that trumps everything. Because there's only one thing that matters in the NFL, and that's production. When the lights are on, the chin strap is buckled, the pads are on against an opponent. So it's fun to talk about practice and coaches love to. How do you practice? As a front office guy, like, okay, I appreciate it. I like a good work ethic. I like a high character guy.

I like a dude that understands the scheme. But does he make plays in games? Does he know what to do on game day? And in preseason game, does he know what to do it against an opponent? Because I'll tell you another thing that happens a lot in these camps. You start going up against an individual. You know his strengths and weaknesses. You know, if you know exactly what the guy going across from me,

if you're going up against them every stinking day, you know how to take advantage of them. You know, it's no different than when you live with your brother or sister. But by the time you live with them 10, 11 years, you know when you're each, if you're within a couple years of each other, you know how to push his buttons, you know what excites them, you know what makes them happy. It's no different than players in training camp.

They know exactly what to do to make themselves look good and vice versa. Well, in these preseason games, first off, you're not game planning. so it's much more just like does he have the physical attributes to make plays and it exposes guys I've seen it time and time again especially younger players there are a lot of younger players that come in

some of them come in the ground hit the ground running they look good in individual drills making plays in one-on-ones even made a play here or there in team and then they get to the preseason game and they don't piss a drop why because it's completely different

and then the start of the season is completely different because then you're factoring game plans and a much more coaching strategy type of game played on actual Sundays in the fall. But right now you've got to be very careful and these videos are going viral and I'm a problem. Like I play a role in that because I'll retweet it because it's fun and I like talking about it. But here's the reality no one's ever made the team in a one-on-one situation. No one's ever been cut in a one-on-one situation. That's not like a super undrafted free agent rookie that no one cares about. I'm talking about a guy that has a legitimate chance to make the team.

You make your hay in this league in preseason games against an opponent that you do not know. An unfamiliar situation where you don't know the strengths and weaknesses, where you either can get the job done or you can't get the job done. And so when you're reading all these stories and they're fun to read, and I'm writing some of them, just know this. When these preseason games come around, these next seven, several weeks, that's make a break for everyone on the roster bubble, whether a veteran's going to be a starter or a backup, that sets the tone.

So you got to be careful with overreacting to guys that are ahead of the curve or even behind the curve, because I'll promise you this. I know when I showed up with the Philadelphia Eagles, I couldn't work that the software to save my life. By the mend of my tenure there, knew it like the back of my hand. and it's going to happen with a lot of young players all over the league. They're going to struggle. They're going to look bad.

Hell, even some veterans. Think how often that you come off a long vacation, a week or two. I know Collins used this analogy for John Gruden. He takes a week off. You're just a little rusty. It's human. We're humans. You know?

I mean, Richard Sherman, again, for that example, him getting smoked, he's never been that top end fast the last several years. And he's coming off an Achilles. And he's been off, coming off vacation. Like, what do you think? He's just going to run a four, three, 40? Of course he's going to get smoked by Olympian. If Kyle Shanahan had Marquis good when Richard Truman was across from him, he'd throw him every time. It's a good matchup. But be careful

with all these drills. Because at the end of the day, it's about producing when the lights are on. That's the only thing that matters in this league. I say it all the time. The NFL is about two things. Winning slash attempting to win because not every team wins, and money. And they go hand in hand. All the other stuff that gets talked about a lot of social media, social justice, It doesn't matter. The owners clearly do not care. They care about money and winning. And usually winning creates money.

Money doesn't necessarily create winning, as we've seen around the league over the years. But those are the two goals. And the only way you win is on Sundays. And coaches will tell you, practice really matters. I'm not discounting that. But I'll take a crappy practice player all day long. It's a playmaker in games. Because that's how you make the squad.

I went to 49er practice on Tuesday morning, have an article up on The Athletic. If you go to Theathletic.com backslash J. Middle, you get 40% off. I put some of my observations up there. And after practice, and I do this five days a week, I do a live show on Periscope, where I just kind of couple rants, kind of like the podcast, and then I answer questions at the end.

And sometimes I typically, while I'm reading the Periscope show, and it's hard with social media, I can't look at the comments because I'll get to stress. You know, it's the millennial ADD generation. But I kind of glanced at a comment, and I'm not trying to overreact to social media comments, and I don't. But I do think it's been pretty fair since he signed this contract. There has been a consistent theme to a percentage, how big or small, I'm not exactly sure, that Jimmy Garapolo might be a little overrated.

And I've been saying from the jump, I think he's a stud. I was blown away by how good he was down the stretch. And I've really, I spent the last 24 hours thinking a lot about it. Like, have I overvalued him a little bit? And I started thinking, like, is Jimmy Garoppel overrated? I started thinking, like, what is overrated in life? Like, I got a hot take, and I think a lot of people are going to disagree with me here. Like, I think McDonald's breakfast is overrated.

You know, people act like McDonald's breakfast is by far the best fast food breakfast. I've always disagreed. Maybe I'm a contrarian Or maybe more people agree with me than I think I've always thought Burger King breakfast is better I like a croissantwich From Burger King Now not everyone's going to agree with me

You know it's It's probably somewhat of a Off the Beaten Path argument If you've ever seen the movie The Founder It's based on McDonald's I mean McDonald's been around for a long time So we have a lot of evidence A lot of people feel very strongly about McDonald's breakfast

Just like a... The great part about food, like quarterbacks, we can argue about it. One common argument, which I love, because I am an in-and-out-truther, is in-and-out overrated or not. And a lot of people that live in the South, is it Waterburger down there, Shake Shack in the Northeast? People argue over different burgers. In-and-out's the best burger. Fast food, quote-unquote burger I've ever had. Some people disagree, and that's fine.

But we have a lot of information. Like, these burger joints have been around a long. time now. You can't really argue is Tom Brady overrated or not. No, he's properly rated. He's the greatest of all time. Like Drew Breeze, yeah, he's been playing for 15 years. We have a pretty good feel for what he is. When I look at Jimmy Garapolo, his story hasn't been written, but up to this point, standing there at practice watching him play, I think he is properly rated right now. He has only been allowed to start seven games. And in those seven games, his team one decidedly in like five of the seven and one the other two.

So in the information that we have on Jimmy, we know he's a sweet practice player. We also now know he dates porn stars. But we just know as a football player, as an NFL quarterback, he's not just good. He kicks your ass. You know, someone was tweeting me the other day saying like, you know, are there ever going to be any Seattle-type defenses again?

or the Harbaugh 49ers. And I was thinking like probably with the way the rules are and hitting, those days are probably somewhat a thing in the past. Maybe Jacksonville is the closest, just top to bottom. Jimmy eviscerated them. Destroyed the Jacksonville Jaguars. So as we sit here, I'm reading this August 1st, 2018. I do think Jimmy is properly rated.

Now, if he plays poorly, this year and takes a step back or is not a top five quarterback, then he would be overrated. And I think it would be fair to say that. But the information that we have right now, I think it's fair to say he's properly rated. He didn't get overpaid because in life you get paid, not what you deserve, but what you negotiate,

or the leverage that you have to get paid a certain salary. He had all the leverage. He was heading into a franchise year, What are they going to do? Let him hit free agency and try to get him at a cheaper amount. Someone would have paid him $100 million guarantee. He would have got more money than Kirk Cousins. Bet your ass on that.

So they just paid the going right. They paid what they had to pay. And so far, he's done everything possible that, especially the 49ers, could have asked. Now, this year, his story is unwritten, right? I don't, could he take a step back? Sure. Could he not be as good?

100%. Could the pressure get to him? Possibly. We saw it last year with Derek Carr. To me, Derek Carr was underrated up until last year and then had a very poor season, whether that was injuries, poor coaching, whatever. And I think it's fair to say right now where he stands, given how much money he's made, a lot of people would say he's overrated. But again, with young players, like a Jimmy Garoppel, like a Derek Carr, young guys that signed a big contract,

they kind of ebb and flow. Where the Brady's, the breezes, the Rogers, their resumes are. are established, are set in stone. You can't argue the flakos, the Eli's, the rivers that have had kind of up and down careers. And let's face it, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning are outliers. Are outliers. Like if Jimmy Garoppolo went on to have Philip Rivers career, people, if I just said that to you, passing on the street and we were BS and about football, you would say that would be a disappointment.

But the reality is that would be a pretty good career Because at the time when Philip Rivers was young He proved he was really good They would have maxed them out Like that would be okay Now that sounds blasphemous and crazy But I think sometimes And that's a great part about

Talking about the stuff for a living Is we love to make concrete statements He is a superstar He is overrated He cannot get it done Well these things change Especially with guys 25, 26, 27

years old the quarterback position. And I don't know how good Jimmy's going to be. I'm betting on him. If he was a stock, I would put money on him to, you know, excel this year and have success. But I understand where people are coming from that just their first reaction is he's overrated. But the reality is, because everyone's entitled their own opinion. I think McDonald's breakfast is overrated. But up until, as we sit here today, the information we have.

today, he's properly rated. Like, he deserved to get Max out. In his limited opportunities, he hasn't just played well. He kicked ass and taken names. And being at practice, it's hard to tell at practice is because the quarterback can't get hit. You know, even full speed drills are probably more like 80% relative to game speed. He's a really, really good player. Now, can he stay healthy?

Can he handle expectations? You know, is he got to be dating porn stars? Not that that's going to derail his career. But you just, you never know. It's hard to be an NFL star quarterback. It's hard to sustain. Well, they say that heavy is the head that wears the crown. Like, I think Jimmy finally realized, like, bro, you're on top of the mountain top.

And you got there without really having to do that much. But you got there. You know, not everyone's path is the same. Like Tom Brady had to climb a little harder, you know, originally. he has a six-round pick and then made the team as a fourth quarterback and then it took an injury. Like, Jimmy was drafted really high and obviously needed a little help because Brady got suspended. But then he got traded, kind of forced his hand. And once he got to the 49ers, he was going to start eventually.

You know, honestly, it probably took longer than many thought around here. But I think we got to, we tried to just make such blanket statements on these young quarterbacks. It's just, it's an ebb and flow. They are a stock market the first five, six years of their career. I think everyone has held to the, and we saw this forever in basketball, everyone held to the Michael Jordan standard. There's never going to be another Michael Jordan. Like, Kobe came close.

There ain't probably never going to be another Kobe. You know, like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are not coming back. Tom's somehow still here. But we got to stop comparing everyone to that. You know, hell, Aaron Rogers, I heard Coward say the other day, thought he was much more Steve Young and as someone that's grown up. Up, Steve Young was my favorite player. Rogers better than Steve Young.

But he's closer to Steve Young than he is Joe Montana in terms of resume. Like he's never going to be a four-time Super Bowl champion. But I would defend Rogers on this. You know, his organization did a pretty piss-poor job for years building the defense, getting him help. He did everything he possibly could have. And right now, I think it's safe to say, is crazy to sounds. Rogers is a tad bit underrated at this point.

point in his career. Because more than likely, his career is going to end, he's only going to be a one Super Bowl guy. I'll always view Aaron Rogers probably as a two or three Super Bowl guy, that level of player. Like, I view Steve Young, he's a one Super Bowl guy. Like, Steve is a one Super Bowl guy, and he played on the best freaking team in the league, or one of them, for like five straight years in the early 90s.

Like, if you put Rogers on those teams, they're not losing the Cowboys three times. They're beating them, and he's probably got it minimum two. But I think everyone needs to pump the brakes on Jimmy Garoppel and just acknowledge. Right now, he's not overrated, he's not underrated, he's just properly rated. Let's get to a really good piece I read. They basically broke down play for play, pass for pass by Connor Hughes of The Athletic, covers the New York Jets. The Athletic covers 17 different NFL teams, a ton of good college football with Bruce Feldman, Stuart Mandel. but Connor Hughes, New York Jets on the Athletics New York site.

And if you subscribe to The Athletic, again, full disclosure, I'm biased. I write for The Athletic, big believer in the product, the best sports riding in America, hands down. Again, I don't really think it's close. You get access to everything. And if you use Theathletic.com backslash J-Middle, you get 40% off. But Connor wrote about Sam Darmel. The Jets, really the Jets should be thanking Jesus, or, God, whoever, I'm not even religious, so whatever you pray to, that Sam Donald fell to them in number three.

Because it looked like forever, he was a lock to go number one. The Jets were desperate for a quarterback. They made a trade before they knew who was going to be there. They got lucky. Now, not ideal that he held out, but the reality is with the jet situation is that Sam Darnold was not going to be the starter. They have Josh McCown, and it looks like Teddy Bridgewater is kind of revitalizing, rehabbing, you know, that knee and his, gonna be a player in this league again. Sam Dardle, though, will eventually start.

And it was pretty funny line. When he walked up to practice, they gave him like a standing ovation, and Todd Bulls just said, you're late. And that's just how coaches are. You know, they're kind of, they're not the happiest punch. But listen to this. Johnny Mansell once famously said, one takeaway I had from this article,

just breaking down the play-by-play of balls he's missing, balls he's not, run drills, it had it all. It was really good. That Josh McCown told him to get back in there. couple times. And Johnny Mansell once famously said, and I don't necessarily agree with Johnny, but I do think he was on point in the sense of how great of a guy this, you know, Josh McCown is, that if Josh McCown would have been in Cleveland his rookie year instead of his second year, that Johnny would have still been in the NFL. I don't know if that's true or not.

Johnny might have had so many demons that he would have need to kind of flame out to kind of get it back. I actually think Johnny's scheduled to make a start this week for his CFL team. but Josh McCown is going to be a huge, and I repeat, massive reason for Sam Donald's future success, teaching them how to be a pro, teaching them how to operate the right way. And sometimes super high characters, great guys, you know, you would think like they don't really need a mentor. You know, they're going to do the right things anyway. But we're all humans. And anytime you're 21, 22 years old, having a pro, whether it's a all pro or just a high-level,

pro that might be an average player but does everything the right way to look up to means a lot and every day Josh mccown showing this guy how to work showing this guy to how to prepare showing this guy how to be a teammate is going to be so important and vital in like five years when the jets are winning the division every year because tom brady's long gone and bill bellichick's in the antucket with cougar linda like that's going to happen sam darnald is going to dominate this division because ryanthale stinks. The Jets, or I mean the dolphins don't have a quarterback. I'm not, as everyone knows, a believer in Josh Allen, which you can also read about on the Athletics Buffalo site. He's been hit or miss so far from what I've read this training camp. And Brady's 41 years old.

It eventually is going to end, whether he gets injured, whether he just retires. It's just not going to last forever. As much as personally, I would love it to. I like watching Tom Brady and Belichick and the Patriots, but it's just, it's finite. It's just, it's going to Whether that's week one this year when he gets hurt, whether that's in two years, it's going to happen. And to me, Sam Donald's going to be the guy. And it's so clear the impact that Josh McCown is going to have on this player for years to come. When Josh McCown is retired and long gone, and the Jets are building around this guy. And I don't think, I mean, how many good quarterbacks have the Jets had the last 40 years?

50 years. Joe Willie, Chad Bennington? They really haven't had any. Mark Sanchez was terrible. I mean, he just happened to play on an excellent defense. This guy is going to change the franchise. And this franchise, I hated the move when they did it to go from six to three because you didn't know who you were going to get.

But the football gods, as Bruce Bochy told Jason Stark, I mean, the best baseball article I read this week on the athletic. Bochie flew out to Cooperstown to watch Trevor Hoffman get inducted in the Hall of Fame. And he basically said he went to prey to the baseball gods, hoping to help the Giants, the San Francisco Giants, that is, get back on track. And I think there is an element if you're a Jets fan, you're just like, when are the football gods going to throw us a bone here? I mean, what the hell is going on?

And I think you finally got one. I think for the first time in a long time. I had a front row seat in the Bay Area. I think a lot of Raider fans felt like that for a long time. And then the football gods threw him a bone with Derek Carr and Khalil. Every once in a while, you need that to happen. and I think it happened this year with Sam Donald. He's going to change the friend.

I've watched him at SC. There is an it quality to him. I had a lot of friends in the league that just watched him as a pure player that didn't quite see it, and I get it. He's got kind of a funky loopy release. He's not, I guess when he took his shirt off at the combine, it's not like he's super jacked. I don't care. I don't pay my quarterbacks to live weights.

I pay him to complete balls and win games. And I watched him at SC with a coach that's probably a tabbed over his head with a talent and a roster that is nowhere up to USC standards. And all he did was last year he won the PAC 12. And the year before, I think he went like 11 and 1 and won the Rose Bowl. I mean, this guy is an ass kicker. And he's big time. He's special.

There's an it quality to this guy. And I know the analytical people would be like, how do you quantify it? I'll tell you, you don't. You don't. But you know it when you see it. And this guy's got it. and I think he's going to change the franchise, obviously not this year,

even though I do think, and I've been saying for a while, there is a path to the Jets winning the division this year. It would take a Brady injury. If Brady were to get hurt, a significant injury and be out for the season, the Patriots would be screwed. They no longer have two quarterbacks

that they could win the division. Obviously, if Jimmy was on the team, they would easily win the division regardless of Brady. That's no longer the case. Brian Horner is now the backup, and Brian Horace stinks. So if Brian Hoyer were to have to start several games, especially if Brady got knocked out for the season sometime, I'm not advocating for that, and I don't want that to happen. But if it did, I do think the Jets are clearly the second best team in the division.

And I think Sam Darnold, he's already going to be one of those guys that, you know, people ask me often like, who are you a fan of? You know, I'm not a fan of teams. I root for players and coaches that I like, that I admire, that I just like their game. And Sam Donald's a player that I like his game. Daniel Jeremiah, I remember a couple years ago, Sam Donald's first year starting. I was texting with him. He obviously lives in Southern California and watches the USC very closely. And he described him as like a bigger Russell Wilson.

And there's an element of Russell. Now it's more quantifiable. But early on, those first several couple years, now the team was much better. So it's not apples to apples. But you couldn't quantify what Russell brought to the table. But you knew it when you saw it. You're like, God, this guy is kind of special. Now it's taken a couple years.

Now, no one can argue. Like, he's elite. It doesn't get much better. Now, will Sam Darnold one day be as good as Russell Wilson? I'm not even saying that. But there is a Russell Wilson element to his game. And I'm a Sam Darnel believer, and I can't wait to watch him play. I can't wait to continue to read Connor Hughes,

who covers the Jets for The Athletic.com. Why I love The Athletic is a subscription-based site that has some of the best riders in America. different sports. I mean, incredible baseball writing, the best basketball writing, and the football writing is top-notch, especially in the Bay Area. The athletics model is simple. There's no ads, no pop-ups, no autoplay videos. I mean, how often are you reading an article on the internet and you can't get through it? Because there's a video, there's an ad, there's a banner. You're like, Jesus Christ, I read one paragraph and I just, I can't get to the second paragraph. Instead,

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You listen to the podcast on different platforms. So if you don't have iTunes, you obviously, if you do, just subscribe and leave a review in the review section, or leave a question in the review section. I'll answer a couple of the day. You can also hit me on Instagram at John Middlekopf and leave your question there, as a couple people did this week. And I'm going to get to, I'm going to start on Instagram with my, middle-cough mailbag from Danny.

This is a pretty good one. Do you think any team in the NFC, other than the Seahawks, isn't good enough to contend for a playoff spot? I do preseason predictions in which I go through the entire schedule and pick the games, and I'm shocked to see the teams that I expect to be solid, like the Lions and the Cardinals could easily end up in the six or seven win range. Hell, I mean, the Cardinals won eight games last year and they've improved. Even the Giants, who are pretty loaded position I have at 3 and 13.

I'm with you. I don't think the Giants are going to be a playoff team, but they're going to be a lot better. The NFC is absolutely stacked. It is not even a question mark in my mind what division or what conference is better. When you look at the NFC South, three teams made the playoffs last year. All three can make the playoffs again this year. Obviously, Tampa's in some trouble with the train wreck that is James.

When you look at the NFC East, Eagles defending champions, the Cowboys went 9 and 7 and Zika was suspended. six games. To me, they're a playoff team. I do think the Giants are going to bounce back, though I do believe the enthusiasm should be tempered a little bit because I just think Eli's not that good. Then you look at the

NFC North. The Packers with Aaron Rogers, I mean, let's call it what it is. They're a 12, 13-win team, as long as he's healthy. The Minnesota Vikings are absolutely stacked. The Chicago Bears are going to be much better with my guy, Matt Nagy, and the Detroit Lions, like you said, are just, they have a solid roster. So if Matt, Patricia, is not a train wreck, they're going to be good. The NFC West, probably the worst division, you know, of the four, but just because I think the Niners are

a tad bit overrated, but they do have Jimmy Garoppel and Kyle Shanahan, so they're going to win games. The Rams are loaded on paper. The Seahawks clearly pretty flawed, but they do have a top five quarterback. You know, if you are going to be shitty, well, if the one positive thing you have is a stud quarterback. You're not that bad, right? You could beat any team on any given week, especially, I think Pete Carroll's lost his fastball a little bit, but he's still Pete Carroll. I mean, he's still won a Super Bowl, been to another, one national championships. I count the one that they pretend that didn't happen. So, and John Snyder, we'll see. I mean, Rashad Penny, that was a little bit of a rich draft pick, but I'm with it. The Cardinals

went eight and eight last year with Blaine Gabbard. So Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold are definitely an upgrade. The NFC is as good as it gets. Now, is it like in the mid-90s when the 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys were the two best teams in the league? And then Brett Farve and the Packers came around. I don't know if there's a team in the league that is that good in the NFC. But I'm with the depth of these teams. Like the difference between if the Cowboys are the six-seed, to me I think the Cowboys could win the NFC.

I think the Rams could win the NFC. I think the Falcons could win the NFC. I think the New Orleans Saints could win the NFC. Obviously, the Eagles could win the NFC, the Packers could win the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings could win the NFC. Stack, man. It is stacked. I can't wait to watch teams like the Bears.

You know, I can't wait to watch teams like the 49ers. I can't wait to watch, hell, the Giants. I want to see Seek Juan Barkley and Odo Beckham Jr. I'm not the biggest Eli guy, but they're going to be good. You know, they're going to be competitive. Good is strong because I think they're a six or seven-win team. I don't think they're three-and-thir-year-old. because they went, how many games they win last year?

Two or three, and they basically quit on half. They're going to try it, and O'Dell Beckham didn't play. They're going to be better. But I'm with you. The NFC, it's as good as it gets. And what the NFL really needs this year, that they lost last year, they had a lot of quarterback injuries. Rogers out.

Wents, out. They need to keep these guys, and then just other injuries, from JJ Watt to O'Dell Beckham Jr., Zeeke suspended. They got to keep these guys on the field, because we live in a culture that likes it stars. You know, you want to watch overachievers, go to a high school game. I flip on the television Sunday to watch Odo Beckham Jr.

and Tom Brady and Khalil Mack, you know, and Aaron Donald, that's who I want to see, Russell Wilson. You know, if I want to watch some overachiever, tryhard guy, I'll go to a high school football game. I flip on my television Sunday night, you know, I want to watch Levion Bell. I want to watch Cam Newton.

That's why. I pay a premium for my cable bill. Okay, uh, Lutz Strong. Question for the pod. How do you, and front offices in general,

evaluate performances of head coaches? Considering the myriad of variables, roster, ownership, contributions of assistance, is a good question. It seems difficult to know just how much coaches performance factors in a success or failure.

See Del Rio, having zero to do with the 12-1 season. I agree. How is this done from the inside? I think it's one of the hardest things to evaluate in all of American business, in all of the private sector. Like in most businesses, it's pretty black and white. Like you're making money, you're not, your stock's growing. In football, and I think this often happens, teams are good, or they may have like a 9-and-7 season or a 10-and-6 season and maybe make a wild card, make the playoffs.

And most of the fan base, and hell, maybe even the general manager, don't think the coach is doing that much or don't think the success is predicated on the coach. And it's basically impossible to quantify because it's not really a quantifiable thing besides just winning and losing, which at the end of the day is the most important thing. But I think Del Rio is a good example.

And you often see this with coaches in the league where it's like, well, two years ago, the Raiders' offense was incredible. They went 12 and 4. Derek Carr, before he broke his ankle, was a legit MVP candidate. and they had like six fourth quarter comebacks. The defense was an abomination.

And you go, well, Jack's a defensive guy. He has nothing to do with the offense. He doesn't even know the plays. He does not know the plays on offense. So he has zero to do with the offense. Clearly they're coming back in despite of him. He, you know, he just kind of stands there. He's not great at time management.

It was just clear he was a bad coach. And sometimes, you know, teams can not have as good of a record. Like the Arizona Cardinals. Last year they went 8 and 8. Blaine Gabbitt was our quarterback. David Johnson went down in game one. It was clear Bruce, I was calling him Bruce Irvin, Bruce Ariens, was awesome last year.

And he retired, that's a big loss for the Arizona Cardinals. Like, he's really good. It's clear Mike Zimmer's teams well coached. It's clear as Andy Reid's teams are well coached. Mike Tomlin, I think a lot of people question Mike Tomlin. Like, how do you quantify it? I give him somewhat of the benefit of the doubt because you don't stay in a place that long and have that many consistent seasons.

I know they have a start quarterback. quarterback. I thought their defense actually took a huge step last year before Ryan Chazier had the unfortunate accident and at least, you know, thank God he can walk now, probably never played football again. But their defense was really good. So I give Mike Tomlin somewhat of the benefit of the doubt. Like Bill Belichick is clearly the greatest coach of all time. I don't think it's arguable. Now some people will say Lombardi, some people will say Walsh, Parcell's Belichick. I'll take Belichick all day long. And it's, it's easy to quantify. He wins the AFC every year.

He wins a Super Bowl like every two years. Like it's black and white. But like Pete Carroll. Pete Carroll's resume these last 15 years is pretty damn good. And has he lost his fastball? He's in his mid-60s, probably. But Pete Carroll was an elite football coach. He dominated at SC.

Now, there were some variables that worked to his benefit. The Pac-12 was down. The Pac-12 was one of the last conferences to pay big-time money for coaches and then other guys came in like Chip Kelly and Jim Harbaugh, and then at the end, I don't even think they ever crossed past. Chris Peterson kind of changed the game. But then he goes to Seattle, remakes the whole thing. It's clear.

Pete's really good. So if this ends really ugly, Pete had a hell of a run, was big time. It's not a black and white formula. There is no way to just throw it into an algorithm and get this guy's a good coach, this guy's a bad coach. because ultimately it's a job of managing humans, not robots. It's a lot of managing personalities. It's a lot of administrative work in terms of setting schedules,

motivating things that you can see if a team is ready or not on Sunday. But the motivation that goes on through the week, I think it's hard. And it's why so many coaches don't work. It's why there are so many poor hires. It's why so many great businessmen in America that own NFL teams can't find a good head coach for the life of them. It's a really hard thing. I've never had to hire anyone, like for my own business. I've helped hire people like working in football, interns or whatever. It's hard, you know, because you get a piece of paper and just like any

assistant coach, right, he has a resume, what his offense was, what his defense was, what other people say about him is letters of reference, and then you interview him and you go, God, this guy's sharp. This guy looks the part. This guy is well-spoken, but you never truly know until you get them. And like you said, I mean, who is picking the players? How big of an influence does ownership have? It's not an exact science by any means. Hell, I'd say it's less inexact than like picking of the players in picking the coaches. And as you see around the league, I'd say college and pro, a lot of assistants who are hired are just people that that head coach knows. You know, it's not often.

That's why I was so impressed with my guy Matt Nagy. He went outside the box. He hired people that he didn't know that well. You know, from Mark Helfrich to the offensive line coach from Notre Dame. Just people, you know, he kept Vic Vanjo. They had never met. Which, I mean, you can say is pretty easy, but not every young coach would do that. Vic can be intimidating.

You know, is Vic going to listen to everything Matt says? No. But you know what Matt knew? This guy can coach. And most young coaches don't have the success. internally, the self-confidence to do things like that. So it's just, it's one of the great questions, and I don't think much will ever change,

even as the analytics in the world grow. It's just something you can't quantify, and I think we'll continue to see swinging misses for head coaches, and guys come out of nowhere and become great head coaches, and there's a huge element to also the hype that we hear from media members. A lot of media members now are represented by the same agents that represent these coaches, so it's kind of a rig deal. So be careful when you read these lists of the top young coaches in the league or in college football.

There's usually a reason that certain guys are listed. It's not always the best coaches. Let's get to a couple iTunes questions really quick. That was Instagram. Slide into my DMs at John Middlough. I've also been answering a bunch of questions on Instagram for the last couple weeks. mailback question. Even though I don't think he will,

if Sabin leaves his dynasty and heads to the NFL, how much success do you think he'd have? And what teams might pursue him? I think I start with just what you said to begin with. I know he recently signed a 10-year contract. We all know that doesn't necessarily mean anything. But I think those days, like, it's just a stupid conversation now.

It's just over. I do think he would have had success if he would have jumped back like four or five years ago, especially with the Indianapolis Colts, which I do think there's some truth to the rumors that he turned them down. You know, him and Gruden turned them down over the years at multiple different times. Separately, I'm not saying multiple, like Nick was turned him down twice, but I think he's turned down NFL jobs. I think he would have been successful if they would have had the right team.

He's just too good of a coach. And he's too old now, like he's not quite a dictator anymore. It's a little more of a loosey-goosey ship than it was 10 years ago. So 100% would he have been Belichick or Andy Reid? Probably not. Hell, would he have been Pete Carroll? Likelihood would have been slim. But he would have been successful.

He is just too good of a football coach. Alabama is on just such a completely different level than every other program in America right now to think that he wouldn't work. It's just how would you bet against him? but I think it is one of those things that we can just set in stone. I think there are two guys. Nick Sab and Coach K. Remember Coach K, was it flirted with the Lakers 10 years ago?

Like Kobe, middle of Kobe's, you know, 10 year? It's just over. It's not happening. So the conversation of what team would go after him, I don't think any teams are coming after them anymore because I just think it's a waste of time. And I'm a believer in, you know, you set your sights high, and you go for people that are probably, you know, whether it's a personal relationship,

you know, dating, or whether it's trying to hire someone, you know, swing for the fences. But it's just, we're at the point now where it's kind of a waste of time. Like calling David Shaw and Chris Peterson still makes sense, even if they're constantly saying no. But Nick Saban in his mid-60, like, he's retiring at Alabama. And then it'll probably do college game day for a couple years ago and then it'll just hang out of the lake. Like, this is happening. He's just going to rattle off championships. He's going to pass Bear Bryant, and he's going to call it a career.

Hey, John, I got to ask. This comes from Wabasum Chargers injuries. The Chargers have dealt with significant injuries before the season starts each of the last few seasons. Is just the most incredible string of bad luck for an organization or something more? How much, if any, does it have to do with the strength coach or the team have any connection? Josh in Las Vegas. I always think this. People always like to blame the trainers

because in society we always want to blame someone. Now, is there a chance? I don't know anything about the Chargers trainers. Know nothing about it. Is there a chance that if you just had to rank the trainers, like if you really could, if people that knew what they were talking about, went into every NFL team,

met with the trainer, saw what they were doing and ranked them, the charges would have the worst strength and conditioning staff in the league. I do think that's possible. I do not know that. I also think there's a chance. The Chargers historically have been one of the cheapest teams in the league. Would it shock me if they are paying their trainers the least amount? In the private sector, you typically get what you pay for.

You may find a diamond in the rough, but that guy's eventually going to leave if you continue to low ball. So that's a theory that I know is not substantiated. I don't know for fact, but it wouldn't shock me if they have one of the lowest paid training staffs in the league. Why? Because the Chargers, they don't pay coaches very much. Well, they definitely don't play the video guys, the trainers, the equipment guys very much. I mean, the Spanos's resume is just set. But I will say this. Jason Verrett was hurt coming out of college, and he's just been hurt in the league.

I don't necessarily put that on the Chargers. Also, Hunter Henry tearing his ACL. ACL injuries happen all the time in the NFL offseason. You know, remember a couple years ago, Jeremy Macklin tore his ACL, Michael Crabtree once upon a time, in Achilles. Guys just tear ACLs in non-contact injuries in the off-season. So there is a freaky element to that. And I know people are like, well, it always happens to the Chargers.

Was it Forrest Lamp last year, their first round pick? It's hard for me with no information to just blame the training staff. But I do think it, shit flows downhill, and at the top of the Chargers Hill is the Spanos family. And when you're notoriously cheap, there's a reason why this team, that's a reason why this team that's had all this talent the last 15 years with multiple different regimes just always seems to underachieve a little bit.

And they almost got to the top with Marty Schadenheimer and it looked like, God, this thing is going to be a dynasty. And then what happened? They couldn't deal with Marty Schadenheimer and got rid of them. And they kept A.J. Smith. And that ultimately backfired.

And now the last several years from Mike McCoy to now Anthony Lynn, which I'm not the biggest Anthony Lynn guy because I don't think he's a dynamic enough head coach. And I also think part of the reason he's the head coach at the San Diego Church because he was cheap. Like, they're not, and again, I'm not advocating paying $100 million for a coach,

but they would never do that. They would never, I still call him the San Diego Chargers. I refuse to call him the L.A. Chargers. You would never read the headline, the San Diego Chargers have hired David Shaw. That just wouldn't happen. But you might read, the Seattle Seahawks have hired David Shaw. The San Francisco 49ers have hired Chris Peterson, right?

You would never read, the San Diego Chargers have hired Urban Myers. because you know why? That costs money. So am I blaming the strength and conditioning staff or the trainers for these ACL injuries? I'm going to chalk it more up to just being freaky bad luck. But I do think that you get what you pay for at the highest level of business. And we're talking about a billion dollar business. Mom and pop shop, you can get away with some stuff.

In football, at this level, when your highest paid employees are making $15, $20, $30 million, when your coaches, not the chargers, you know, are making $7, $8 million. When you got coordinators making seven figures, I don't think people realize how much coaches make in the NFL. Like a position coach in the NFL makes like 500 grand. And that's like a tight end coach, DB coach. Like an offensive line coach makes like $900 to a million. A coordinator, a good one with a little experience, makes like $1,4,15.

The top ones make like two. You know, Vic Fangio's probably making like two. So these guys get paid a premium. Now, Belichick, I've often heard, you know what? The Patriots don't pay that much. They're unique. They got Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. They cover up all the Blenishes.

The Chargers don't. And again, I'm not going to put this on the Strength of Conditioning staff, but I will put a lot of their underachieving attributes as a franchise since I've really been in college in the early 2000s. They've had excellent teams. on the Spanos family. So I blame them for their problems. Middlecoff mailback comes to you every week.

Again, you can slide in my DMs on Instagram, at John Middlecoff. I'll answer them there. You can slide up into iTunes. I'll answer them here. We'll be back again next Wednesday. Football, if you're listening to this Wednesday, football is tomorrow night.

Like I said, Thursday, football tonight. If you're listening Friday, football is last night. It's back, baby. It is back. Hall Fame weekend. I love this. speeches. Really good class this year. Ray Lewis, Randy Moss. I know T.O. T.O.'s not showing up. Brian R. Lacker. Fun class. A lot of guys that makes me feel old. Like, I watch the majority of their

career. Hell, I watch their entire career. But you can reach out and get Middletoff mailback. Be back next week. Thanks for listening. And like I'm giving you guys a deal. Theathletic.com Backslash J. Middle. Three-in-out podcast, John Middell on the Collins-Catwood podcast network. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode we're cutting through the noise,

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It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was probably. You just understood. That's how, personal it got. Wow.

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