The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Action Network’s Raheem Palmer deep dive on NBA betting process & favorite FUTURES

Episode Date: February 19, 2022

With the NBA Season on pause, I spoke to the Action Network's Raheem Palmer about the best way to make YOU money in the second half of the year!. Follow MoneylineMonaco and The Volume on Twitter to stay locked into Monaco's latest picks, tips and content. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Visit www.1-800-gambler.net, West Virginia. All right, welcome into another episode of sports gambling with MoneyLine, Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco. special edition episode, my guy from the Action Network, Rahim Palmer, gentlemen, sharp, scholar, killing it in the sports betting space.

Rahim, great to be back on the mic with you, my friend. Yo, it's so great to be here. Look, the Super Bowl just happened. So that means we're completely focused on NBA now, and I'm excited to get to it from now and to the end of June. Likewise. All right, well, briefly, Let's just recap the Super Bowl.

I know you won. I randomly middled this and got lucky. I was on my Simpsons over here. I guess 2420 ended up being 2320. So that bangles with the points and the Rams on the money line. Doesn't normally work out that way. But I know you were on the Bengals. I would love to hear as well as the audience a little bit about your process with how you made that pick.

And then just your Super Bowl approach and how it's a little different. or more of the same with how you bet football. I think the biggest thing about the Super Bowl is that you have so many props. Like a lot of times during the regular season, I'm not doing props. And during the Super Bowl, you can get down. Like there's so many different exotic props.

And then you could also get down a lot of money on these props. So I spend a lot more time on that than I ever do. But as far as the process, it's still looking at two teams and how they match up and still looking at the metrics. But I think the biggest thing about the Super Bowl is that you have a year's worth of stuff. Like you have obviously the 17 game regular season, and then you have three or four playoff games.

So I think you just have that much more information. For me, when I look at the Bengals and I look at the Rams, to me the Rams, I feel like they were floating on thin heights. Like, look, you saw the Rams. They were five and five against playoff teams, average margin and losses. coming by 12.2 points. While the bangles were seven and two and against playoff teams, when both losses came against the Packers and the 49 is by three. So even though they had this bad offensive line, they were able to stick with teams. And I felt like that they would be able

to basically get the ball out quick, which you saw they did for the first three quarters, and moved the ball up the field against this Rams team who was banged up in the secondary, but also they don't have very good linebacker so you could throw in the middle of the field. So I felt like they would be able to keep it close. This is one of the first Super Bowls we saw in a while in which, like typically the spread doesn't even matter in Super Bowl, but it mattered here. So I really liked Bengals and they got it done. When you are firing on that game and then you're watching it live, just a quick note on

live betting. I was able to grab the Bengals plus nine in the first half and double dip and take the Rams on the money line plus money late there in the third early fourth. Are you a fan in the Super Bowl of live betting? And if you do live bet on football, what needs to happen for you to do that? I'm a fan of live betting all the time because I just think you can get so many edges that that you just don't see before the game. And you named the perfect one.

You felt like the Bengals would be able to keep it closer. You got it. I actually live bet the Bengals money line. Wow. Yeah, I took it at half time. I said no Eldel Beckham. Eric Weddow was banged up. This is a three-point game at halftime in a game in which it felt like the Rams

dominated. I felt like the Bengals were going to win. So I took them live, money line. I think I got them like plus 170. And they led the entire second half until the ending, which I was a little disappointed by, because to me, they were having letting them play all game. And you call that holding penalty on third down. And honestly, there was a false start on that same holding penalty.

So that play should have never happened. We should have been looking at third and 15. And I think if it's third and 15, I think the Bengals stop them there. So I was a little disappointed in that. But I mean, look, we got the Bengals plus four and a half. So I can't complain. All right. Let's switch to NBA.

We're all in now. Sleeves rolled up. And I know you crush it in the NBA space. My man sitting courtside off those. betting winnings here there and everywhere. And you're writing some articles as well for the New York Post, which is very exciting, making picks. So I want to talk and lean into your MBA process.

And it's such a different animal than football, right? You have the whole week to kind of compartmentalize and settle into your picks. MBA is day to day. There's letdown spots. Guys are dropping at the end of the day on a lineup. Lines are moving. You can get mouse trapped in a lot of ways in the NBA. for the people out there listening,

what are kind of the one, two, three punch rules for you in how you approach day-to-day NBA bet? First things first, the best way to bet NBA is you need to be looking at scheduling spots, like straight up and down. Scheduling spots are everything. Like, I mean, like, look, you look at last night. I had to- How about those Celtics?

I wasn't even thinking about that, but that was a good one. I was thinking about the Toronto Raptors. The Toronto Raptors had two days off in between games, and they play a Minnesota Timberwolves team who are playing a back-to-back in the third game in three nights. And they come off an overtime win in which they had to come back from double digits against the Charlotte Hornets. So you look at that, and it's just like, oh, shoot,

you got a rested Raptors team. Give me the Raptors. And you saw the market actually move on that because the market actually moved from Raptors plus one and a half to Raptors plus to Raptors minus, what was it, Raptors minus two and a half, I think maybe. Yeah, Raptors minus two and a half. And then it moved back when Fred Van Vleet was out. But it still closed around one. So it's just like those scheduling spots are really, really everything. I mean, every like there's no.

better way to get edged than bending on those scheduling spots. Second, I think you kind of have to really make your own numbers. Like, I think that is really, really key. Like, I think people underrate that so much because if you don't have a way to create your own numbers, you're kind of jacked up. Can you elaborate a little bit more for the underclassmen listening, what that means? So for me, I have a math model. And it basically spits out a number for every, every game, like for every single game.

And so let's just say last night, the Grizzlies played the Portland Trailblazers. The line was, what was the line? The line was, it opened 12 and a half. I had it 10 and a half. And you could see where the Blazers have been feisty lately. and not only have they been feisty lately, they've won three straight games. Despite not having C.J. McCollum, they traded him away. They traded Norman Powell way. So having those numbers, it allows you to say, you know what, this is a baseline for where the number should be and the market is here.

One of the things I recommend, I think I said this before on the show, is that you always want to bet early. betting early, like I mean around eight or nine, that's when the market is the most inefficient. So you want to get up eight or nine, well, seven, eight, nine a.m. Eastern standard time. You want to capitalize on those lines because you'll see line movement throughout the day. And auto limits increase through the day, the ability to get closer line value decreases as you get closer to tip off. So I recommend doing that. I recommend studying and reacting to injury reports. That's really big, and especially in the NBA where you'll have a guy questionable in the morning

and then by game time, he might not be playing. And I think there's some guys who, they're playing the NBA. All they're doing is just reacting to injury news and trying to get the best of it before some of these books move. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from

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Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. So that's key. When it comes to the NBA totals, you need to know how much. many possessions there are in the game. Like pace is the biggest factor when handicapping NBA totals. The number of possessions in the game basically can determine how high scoring a team's matchable will be. So here's a good example. Last season of Washington Wizards, they were 18 for offensive rating, but they were third and points per game because they played the fastest pace in the league. They played about 106 possessions. So you want to, you want to be able to know

how many possessions is this team play? A site called dunks and threes.com. they actually have a metric called offensive length of possession. And that'll tell you how long these teams possessions are. Whereas pace, it just gives you the amount of possessions. So I look at both of those. Basketball reference actually has the formula for pace. And you can kind of look that up. And if you want to calculate pace for live betting, that's really good.

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And I know you tweeted this out courtesy of our wonderful producer Brumley, if the sons, and this is the hottest team in basketball, at least in the stands, if the sons are in a five-point game in the third or fourth quarter, this is a lie-b betting question. You can pretty much automatically live bet them on the money line. I'm reading your tweet, by the way.

If they close out the Rockets game, which they did, they'd be 24 and 3 when the point differential was five or less with five minutes to go. So even finding that, statistic is fascinating. Can you break down a little bit of your NBA live betting process? That seems like an absolute Larry Locke. The Sons are a great team, of course. But what other value do you look for in live betting in the NBA, similar to the tweet you have with the Sons? I mean, with the Sons, I mean, this is just, they're just unbelievable. Like I said that before,

they're 24 and 3 in a clutch. They actually have a net rating of 41.2 in those clutch situations. So, like, basically, you have two guys in Chris Paul and Devin Boker who were in the 90th, 100 percentile and mid-range shooting percentage. So if it's at a close game, we all know basketball is about having a guy who can go and get you a bucket. They have two guys who can do that in an elite level. And then you have a guy at Chris Paul who doesn't turn the ball over. So that's why they're getting to all these close games and they're winning. So for me, when it comes to live betting, I think the biggest thing that I try to do is I just, try to look at elite teams who are playing superior, like inferior teams, and they have a deficit.

And I think you can, you can find yourself getting some cheap, some cheap prices. But also, basketball is such a game of runs. Like, it's truly a game of runs. So I have some, some live betting rules that I follow. Basically, throw one or two to us, if you don't mind. We're all trying to give that. Actually, I have about five or six, but I can give them to you. first thing's first, you only want to bet during commercial breaks and stoppages.

You want to capitalize on pricing mistakes due to bad data. So a lot of times you'll be watching the game and the fee will be wrong. And they might put, they might put like the money line should be like minus 130, but they might put at like plus 100. You want to capitalize on it. You want a lot of bet injuries. Last night was a good one. It didn't work out, but last night Anthony Davis got hurt.

and you could get a good price on the jazz. And the jazz were absolutely dominating that game until the end. I mentioned before about calculating possessions for live totals. There's a formula on basketball reference. You can calculate those possessions. And sometimes you'll be watching the game, and you'll notice that a team is scoring every trip up the floor, but it's a slower-paced game.

And at some point, they're not going to continue with this efficiency. So if you have that present, if you were able to calculate those possessions, you could say, you know what, this is still a slower-paced game, or this is a faster-paced game, they're just not making shots. At some point, they're going to go win. Also, I mean, we mentioned capitalizing on volatility.

It's a game of run. So you mentioned in the Super Bowl, you had the Bengals plus nine. You could do, in the NBA, it's even better because you'll have a team go up 10 points nightly, and like both teams will have 10-point lead, and you can just capitalize on that. And then also, I think the biggest thing is that you want to learn rotation. You want to learn, okay, this team plays this guy in the second quarter, he plays this guy in the third quarter, like the Denver Nuggets. They have probably the worst bench in the league, easily, like by far.

So if you're live vetting the Denver Nuggets, you don't want to live vet them for the game in the second quarter because that's when they're going to get a deficit. You want to live vet them when, or maybe you want to wait for them, the bench to screw things up and then you get them at a better number. So learning those benches is kick. Let's talk about futures. I know you're very dialed in in that area of betting as well.

I'm more intrigued with your thoughts on the east here. The West seems to be two horse, Suns, Warriors race with maybe some people on the Grizzlies. I do want to get your thoughts as well. But you're looking at this Eastern Conference, Rahim. You have the bowls, the heat, the box, and the calves as your top four standings at the moment heading into the All-Star break. And then you have the Sixers, the Celtics, Raptors, and Nets with a comeback against the Knicks to wrap up the eight. Of course,

you have the play in game. But you look at the futures. The Bucks are still in first in terms of plus 260 to win the East. Then it's the Nets. Then it's the Sixers. I'm curious with the heat Celtics and Bulls being four, five, six, heat at plus 550, bowls all the way up to plus $1,500. Do you have a value play in the East or do you think these standings will ultimately balance out, thus leaning towards maybe a futures now headed into the All-Star break because the pendulum will swing back and the cream will rise to the top? When it comes to futures, I think, look, you can look at this two different ways. I think the Cleveland Cavaliers have some value to win the division at plus 250.

but I don't think they're a team. Like, look, the Bucks aren't necessarily taking this regular season that seriously. Obviously, the Bucks have passed the Cleveland Cavaliers and the standings, but the Cavaliers, they're just, they're one of the best defensive teams in the league right now.

They're going hard for the regular season. And you saw with the Caras Levert tree, they're going all out to make the playoffs. And you have the Bucks team. They lost Pat Conalton. They traded Dante DiVincenzo. They just don't have a lot of depth. So I think the Cavaliers can win the division.

That's the Central Division right there. I think they can win that division. But when you look at as far as the NBA finals in the East, I think the bucks and the nets have the edge there. Like when I look at the Bulls, I love the Bulls. And obviously they're missing some guys. They're missing Lonzo ball, Alex Caruso. So the defense is really struggling.

Patrick Williams, he's slated to come. bat. I think they're a solid team. They remind me of like the 2014 to the 2018 Toronto Raptors. They're a great, obviously, DeMarie Rosen played on that team with Kyle Lari, but they're a great regular season team, but I don't see them making noise in the playoffs. I think they're like a second round exit at best. Maybe they go to the Eastern Conference finals, but I don't see them beating the elite teams and the Milwaukee Bucks and the Brooklyn Nets. To me, the Brooklyn Nets are completely resurgent since making that trade. So if I'm looking at a future in the East, I think it's the bucks.

Wow. Are you buying the heat at all at plus $5.50? I mean, they are playing incredibly well for how many injuries they've been dealt with as well first half the season. You know, everybody's buying the heat, but I'm still not buying them. And the reason why I'm not buying them is because I just don't trust the offense. Like, I really don't trust. And particularly, I mean, the half-court offense is up to about 12 right now.

But, I mean, for large parts of the season, you saw that this is a team that they really struggled to score in the half-court. And they're a good defensive team, but other than Jimmy Butler, you don't have many guys who can get you a bucket. I mean, Tyler Harrow, obviously, the sixth man in the year. But I don't trust this team's ability to really score efficiently. when it matters. And I think that's what you got to do when you're playing a team like Milwaukee or you're playing a team like the Nets.

And obviously the Nets, they're taking a step back in firepower since Trayton James Horton. But I think when you have Kyrie Irvin and you have Kevin Durant, I think the Kyrie situation is going to work itself out. Like Adam Silver says something about it the other day. It doesn't make sense that you have a guy who literally,

like you have guys who can play rogue games in New York, but Kyrie can't. So that's kind of preposterous. So I just, I'm not a believer, but there's other people who are. I'm just not. This Atlantic Division last thing in the east is pretty, it's pretty interesting. I'm seeing on Fandle right now, the Sixers of minus one 95, the Celtics are plus 320. They've won eight of their last nine. Then you have the Nets at plus 1200. I mean, this Nets team has yet to be healthy all season with their stars. Plus, you alluded to it, definitely got better defensively with the resurgence in the trade. Do you think there's any value in that Atlantic division, either Nets or Celtics to come back

in Best Sixers? I think gave out the Celtics plus 900 to win the Atlantic Division last week on the Bucket's podcast. Oh, plug it twice, baby. Yeah, so I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll like the Celtics here. I mean, they're plus 320. Last night's loss was rough. Like, I like, you got to win that game. But I just think right now, when you look at the Celtics, they are, they have the number one defense in the league over the last two weeks. They're allowing just 97 points per one to possessions. The biggest thing about the Celtics is that the offense is kind of mediocre. But when you look at the Sixers, right now, I mean, without James Hardin, and maybe James Harden would return after the All-Star,

this team doesn't have a lot of depth. So you're basically, it's depending on what James Hardin and Joel M.B. can do together. And I'm not that, I'm a Sixers fan, but I'm not that crazy about the fit. Like, Joelle, James Harton is used to playing with like a rim rolling center. He's never played with a center who has his back to the basket. It needs the ball in his hand so much. So I'm interested to see how they fit together. But I think the Celtics do have some value.

I want to get you out of here with this. NBA MVP. Everyone loves talking it. It was Curry the first month and a half of the season. I know you tweeted out the Joker is looking like he could could go back to back like Janice the other year. Janice is in the conversation as well. Of course, Joelle is in the conversation. John Moran has to be in the conversation. Is there anyone you're leaning towards? I mean, these odds swing so interestingly and so much. It's a tough thing when you have the media talking about the MVP so frequently and then the odds swinging. But is there such a thing as a safe bet or someone you feel like coming out of the All-Star break could take this down the stretch?

I'm going to be honest with you. Yonk it should be the MVP. And you saw it last night. He had 35 points, eight assists, 17 rebounds. He's probably doing the biggest carry job we've seen since LeBron and Cleveland. And I mean, in the early days. I mean, he has no Jamal Murray. He has no Michael Porter, Jr. This guy is leading the league in pretty much every single, like, advanced metric that you can have. I mean, offensive winshares, box plus minus, winshares plus 48, like win shares. I mean, value of a replacement. Every single metric, like, I think he is the, he is the higher, like, he is one of the highest player efficiencies of ratings of all time. Like, that's per. So to me, he's the MVP. But I think what it comes.

down to is, is his team going to win enough games? And I think that's the biggest thing that's holding him back. And also, when you look at the Sixers, Joel M.B. was the frontrunner to win the award last year. So if the Sixers and the Nuggets have the same record, I think Joelle M.B. is going to have the edge because you're going to have a lot of reporters. I think Ramona Shelburne, she's going to be voting for M.B. And if the Sixers can just pull off some wins and get into a top three, four seed. I think they're going to pull it off. Janice, to me, has some value.

That's one that we gave out at plus 800 to start the year. But I think the biggest thing with Janus is that he hasn't been the story. Like, when you look at this Bucks team, they're kind of coasting. So right now, it feels like a two-man race between Yokic and M.B. DeMarre D'Marg D'A Rosen has been getting some. Demar D'Ros is going to get some MVP votes. but I just don't think he's he's still overcoming

the fact that he has a guy in Zach Levine who's been just as good as him and I know Zach Levine's been a little banged up but I mean DeRose is having an incredible season I don't want to take anything away from him I think he's going to be on the ballot but I don't think he's going to win Jean Morant has been solid

but I think when you look at his metrics I just don't think he measures up to Embed or Yokish or Yonis I got to throw this out there on your way out. I'm on the Sunday to win the West. I really think it plus 460. I got a fire on them to win the whole thing.

I mean, this team is incredible when you look at really the top five in offense, top five in defense, most of this season. And the depth in which they added, Javail off the bench, even Beonbo off the bench, it seems like it's their year. And they are playing out of their mind. Do you feel the same way? I know it's a marathon of a season, but barring any injuries, knock on wood,

Aiton and Chris Paul, both averaging double doubles, it is just incredible what they've come out with in terms of energy and just locked in mentality. It's like the opposite of the box, and they were both in the dance. So what say you want the sons and then I'll let you get out of here?

Yeah, I love the sons. I mean, to me, like I mentioned earlier how they were, I mentioned earlier how they were 24 and 3 in the clutch. And with them being able to win in the clutch like this, I just think you have to blow this team out. And like, look, I've seen so many games this year where this team is down by five in the fourth quarter

and they pull it out because Chris Paul doesn't turn the, he doesn't turn the ball over at all. Like, so it's just to me, I think they're the best team in the West. I think the Warriors, when you look at them, that's the direct competition. And Draymond Green is hurt. Like Draymond Green is banged up. We don't know what's going to happen with him.

We all know those back injuries are just a major issue. And look, I mean, that's a team that they would struggle with because if they were healthy, because the war is switch every pick and roll. And I think that's the issue the sons have had against teams that switch. But if they're not healthy, I think it may be the Sun's year. And I think the Suns, to me, they're just loaded.

There's no direct weaknesses. They have the guards and Chris Paul and Devin Booker. They have wings. They have McCall Bridges, who probably he could be the defensive player of the year. I don't know if he's going to win it, but they have wings there. They have Biggs. So, like, to me, I just think you're looking at a team who they have no weaknesses.

So I agree with you. I love the Suns, even at this price right now. I love it. Rahim, please let everyone know everywhere you are. I know you switched up the Twitter handle. So make sure you dropped that as well for us. Where can everyone check out all your work and all things. You can find me at I am Rastradamus on Twitter. I switched it up. So it's a lot easier to say. You should be able to remember it. I am Rastradamus. Yes, sir. And then of course, Action Network. You put out great work there as well. New York Post if you're in the New York area. else that you can catch me on the buckets podcast and the action network podcast we do

do those a couple of days a week so check it out action network dot com Twitter i am rastradamus hey the man wins a lot more than he loses i hope you all got better listening to Rahim Rahim thank you so much for taking the time and sharing your insight as sharp as you are I know you got a million people in your ear asking for advice so thank you for coming on and sharing yours truly Switch to Spectrum Mobile and get unlimited data for only $299.99 per month each when you get two or more lines. You could save hundreds on your mobile bill. Plus, there are no added taxes, hidden fees, and no contracts.

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