The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - AFC East: Will Aaron Rodgers & Jets dethrone Bills? How to bet Patriots, Dolphins

Episode Date: August 4, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his best bets for the AFC East ahead of the 2023 NFL season. Will Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills come back even stronger with several players returning from injury? Are Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets being grossly undervalued with their win total set at 9.5? What is the right bet to place on Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins given the injury history of Miami's quarterback? And does Monaco actually have the guts to bet against Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots? #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. All right, welcome to another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline Monaco, Alex Monaco, chilling with you. We are officially in August. That means football is around the corner. I got my New York Jets green on, baby. We're chopping it up about the AFC East. Got Triple P, Paul on the ones and twos.

We're going to have a fun wrap up the show segment. But we're going to start out talking this AFC East Division, my best bets, over, under, total wins. I got to start out as much as I want to start. start out with the hard knocks New York take flight jets. We got to do it justice and we got to give the tip of the fro to the best team in the division two years in a row and then some. It's the Buffalo Bills.

Now, let me preface this division with a couple of things. Now, they're all playing the NFC East and the AFC West. As you know, teams that have the first place last year get the first place schedule. But this is pretty fascinating. According to a couple of sources here, you're looking at overall CBS sports opponents win percentages from last year. It's the Miami Dolphins that have the most difficult schedule in this division. Then it's the Pats, then it's the Jets, then it's the Bills. All these teams in the AFC East have top 10 strength of schedule difficulty on their hands as we dive in to start out.

With Bills Mafia, I call it the Bubba Ray. Dudley, tables, ladders, and WWF chairs, old school with it. Best to me, tailgate in the country, bar none, say what you will. And this is a club. I look at these win totals and the bills are sitting here at 10 and a half. And you factor in a couple of things. Strength of schedule, of course, is one. Turnover from last year.

How did they fare in a couple of key categories? This is a bill's team that was second in the offensive. points per game category only to the chiefs putting up 28 per 28.2 to be exact and giving up 17 points per game top two in the league. You look at the discrepancy in the NFL and this is the most consistent club on offense and defense you can make a case for in the entire NFL. Now, the first thing I look at last year to this year, believe it or not with this Buffalo Bill's team. Talked it out with my guy, Paul, too, is injuries and distractions. Now, this defense, not a ton of household names, but you brought in a Super Bowl key component from the Rams and

Von Miller. He goes on the injury list way too early. Of course, Micah Hyde by week three, Tredavius White with a decimating injury. Those are three enormous pillars to your defense getting hurt. And then a lot of people in factored this in, Josh Allen had a part of the partially torn UCL, the same injury that the Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy got in that Eagles playoff game, this man got yet continued on to ball. Now, just really put this into gambling noggin. This team lost three games last year. Three games by three points, three points, and two points. You mean to tell me the Buffalo Bills, who again, were routed by the Bengals, and that's the last Costco sample size of the team we saw coming into this year.

So that's the last memory we have. I'm asking you to 10 second Tom it from 51st dates or men in black. Get it out of your noggin. This is a piss off team that is beyond thirsty for a playoff run. And you have to look at what they've done week in, week out. Remember two years ago when they were outperforming the market. from a betting perspective, nobody in Vegas could catch up to them. This team has just about everything you want to make a deep run,

minus a middle of the pack of offensive line. But that's when Tim the toolman Josh Allen can come and mess up your defensive game plan. This is a running back in a shooting guard small forward frame that is putting punishment stiff arms and downhill Madden runs on defense. enders like he's Cam Newton in 2016. I just, I look at this bill schedule. I look at the logical side of this team. I look at the emotional side of this team.

There were injuries. There were distractions last year. Down the end of the season, how do you expect this team? We're talking about a human element with Hamlin. No one would ever have prepared for. And this team was unbelievable with handling that moment. But there's not anything to say from a football perspective other than that took them away.

rightfully so of a all-win focus. This became a human being that everyone wrapped their arms around. And to my knowledge, kind of had the bills in a, you know, what's most important right now mindset. Now they're back to football. Thank the high heavens.

Hamlin's good to go. He's playing contact training camp drills right now. So they're back to football. I look at the 10 and a half win total and I go over. I don't see any reason why this bill's team. And you look at their first six, seven weeks on the schedule. This team's about to go seven, six and one, out the game. I mean, outside Vegas, commanders, Miami, Jacksonville, the Giants, the Pats, Baker, Progressive, Mayfield, and the Bucks.

Where's a loss in the first seven weeks of the season? So I'd go on and on about this team. 13 wins, second best record in the AFC behind the Chiefs. Seven and one in Buffalo, six and two on the road. they had the best in the AFC point differential of anybody in the conference at plus 169. Really, really sit on that. This is a steal. 11 wins is inevitable.

I think winning the division at plus 130 is a sprinkle worth doing because it's kind of uphill battles we get into our next team here with the New York. Take four jets, baby. And just to preface this, I do host a show in New York. I am all over this New York Jets team. I am absolutely hopping on the JETS and I'm going with wherever Aaron Rogers and that PJ PJ wants to go around the world, baby. This is a team.

Just think about this from last year. All right. They were minus 20 and point differential to that bill's almost plus 170. They end this season on a six game losing streak. All right. They're two and four in the division. and they were fourth in defensive points against fourth, 18.6 points per game this team gave up. You just saw what I told you with the bills, give it up 17.

You bring in a what I would like to say, a 2.0 version of a man. I was talking crazy, stupid love with my guy Paul before this episode. This is Steve Carell, Act 2, Act 3, baby. He has a complete revamped vision of who he is. look at last year. Look at the off season from last year. He's trying every Willy Wonka chocolate known a man to try to get him in some ayahuasca breakthrough.

Do I rock with the Packers or do I not for the rest of my career mindset? And he crumbled. I talked this out with Middle Cough when it comes to golfers. You want to back a Johnny Rom when he's pissed off Snickers, hangary. You want to back O'Rory when he's joyous. You want to back. And Aaron Rogers taking the largest picker. cut in the history of the NFL.

You just want to. This is a guy I have seen in person gallivanting around the garden, hitting Broadway plays, chilling with his teammates. These are three things he did not do consistently in Green Bay. This is a classic to give a cowherd example to force. You didn't travel in your relationship or spend money with your 35-year-old current or previous partner, guess what you're doing?

You're going, where's Waldo around the world with the next girlfriend, wife? It just happens like clockwork. So we are betting on, in my humble opinion,

yes, age is a factor. We're still betting on the best version of Aaron Rogers. And he's happy. The guy is happy. And he's either playing great, very ecstatic or very pissed off. And I believe in this New York media market,

one of those is going to happen. And this is, defense, again, is menacing. And you lock up Williams. I love to see that. This is a team that's only going to have, I would say, offensive line situation, situational potential problems outside of that. The defense is stout. He has the pieces on offense. God forbid a Dalvin Cook, et cetera, comes on this team. You are betting on over nine and a half wins right now before they free up this Rogers cap space that they can play with this year. It to me is an absolute must fire. I don't know how you want to root against this

unless you're from the Cheezland. I got to absolutely take out the Aaron Judge Gavill and slam over nine and a half wins. I don't see a reason why this team blows it despite the pressure. Thank you Mets and Yankees for doing nothing and tripling the pressure on Danny Woody from Toy Story Dimes and Aaron Rogers. But all that to say, this team's got the defense. This team has a back-to-back MVP from less than a thousand days ago. Let's not forget. And they have a unbelievable camaraderie right now. Is there a higher team morale in the entire NFL than the New York Jets? And you do, again, have to remind yourself this is a new team completely because they have not won consistently since before the Rex Ryan iPhone, in my

humble opinion. But looking at it, last thing I'll say, you'll lose a 10-3, 19-3, an 11-6 game. Those are wins under Aaron Rogers. All right? This is a double-digit win club, and I'm going to lose a lot of money or win a lot of money on this New York Jets team. I like him to finish second. With the busy fall season just around the corner, you might be looking for wholesome, convenient meals for jam-pack days. Factor, America's number one ready-to-eat meal kit can help you fuel up fast with chef prepared, dietitian approve, ready to eat meals delivered straight to your door.

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Let's talk about the Ace Ventura. Fins up, laces out than Miami Dolphins. It's a riveting team. And I got to be honest, I hate to be an over, over, and then pick a third team in the AFC East and go over again, guy. I don't know how we don't love

this Miami Dolphins team to get 10 wins. It's minus 1.10 pending where you shop. so it's just about a coin flip. Vegas says they could go over, they could go under. Now, this team is interesting. This team has a certified home field advantage that few have, and it's not based off of football weather. There's something down there in that 305 aura where teams just fall out.

And you look at Brady in Miami. It was one of the most difficult places this dude played in the division over two decades. There were six and two at home, three and six on the road to that point. So this is a young team, young quarterback to a young coach and McDaniel. They have a lot of promise. This was a top four passing offense. This team's got dudes on defense for days. It sucks that Ramsey got hurt because you added in David Long and Ramsey and that was already enormous. I mean, these dudes got Wilkins, Bradley Chubb, let's not forget. They got Holland, Xavier and Howard, there are studs on all three levels of this defense.

The problem lies is if Tua, and again, we have a concussion and again, another human element here to factor into betting this club. They do have White Lotus as backup. Mikey White from New York came down to Del Boca Vista to backup this team. I do like that because you saw a huge drop-off. They were one and three in those four games without Tua. Are they two-tua contingent? Is this a sort of Shanahan?

and again, McDaniel's an understudy of Shanahan. Is this a system? Is this a scheme that can plug and play different quarterbacks, different running backs? You ironically see Moester and Jeff Wilson, two former San Franciscoites on this team. There's just all of these elements to factor in. I'm not all in on them yet. They got in a lot of shootouts last year, right? You got a pretty prolific offense, yet you're minus two and point differential.

So I'm a little nervous again. They went from a defensive Brian Flores team to an offensive-minded team. saw as much as they were playmakers on the defensive side, them kind of let us down a little bit. So I am on them to go 10 and 7. I do like them over. I just, you're getting in shootouts like in the wild car round 34,

31 against the bills. That's not consistent ways to win in this league. You have to eventually, and this team does have the ability to play time of possession, ball control, win the turnover battle offense and overall style. I just haven't seen them implement it yet. I got him finishing third as really a senior junior sophomore on campus type mindset of this division,

but I do like him to get 10 wins. And last but not least, apologies to my colleague, Sean, I am off the New England Patriots. Now, yes, they did go from a number two pencil in the back of the ear with a backwards, Patricia Cap Colin plays to Bill O'Brien. Finally, finally, they make the necessary changes on offense. what are they doing on offense in the Bill Belichick, A, B, after Brady era? And I thought about this. I was trying to come up with some sort of angle.

This is a Patriots team that is living like your dad who doesn't know how to operate an iPhone. How do I get to your podcast? How do I listen to what everybody's listening to on IG Live? I don't know the buttons. What in your right mind are you doing? on offense. And this is Jaws 2. As great as Jaws 1 was, the New England Patriots are Jaws 2. I ain't paying for it. I ain't going to the theater to even try and watch it. You mean to tell me with as inept as this offense was last year.

You don't sign D'A Hopkins. You don't go and walk it. Could you imagine this team getting D.Hop and Josh Jacobs? Could you imagine? But they don't because they're living in the pre- iPhone sidekick world. They don't want to pay for decorated players at really important positions. The reality is the defensive side of the ball is not the problem. Yet you go Christian Gonzalez and three first round draft picks in the beginning. I mean, what are we doing? Now, I like a Juju Smith-Schuster.

I like a Kaseki. They clearly swung and missed on Johnny Smith and Hunter Henry, but I just don't trust this team. Two and five on the road. You look at the regression Matt Jones had. not building around a guy what a pro bowl rookie season. So all that to say, I got to go scuba Steve under here, eight and nine, maybe, but because seven wins is what it is, I'm feeling seven and ten.

I really am. Probably goes three and three in the division, but this is a difficult strength of schedule outside of the AFC East. I got to go under. So three overs, one under. As we wrap up real quick, I'm going to zip through these, but I got a fun prop for each team plus 1100 on draft Kings for Aaron Rogers to throw a touchdown in every single game. Listen to this. 88% of his games, he's thrown a touchdown in 2022 last year,

through a tug in every game but week one. He did do it in 2011 so it's been done, but I love the idea of a value play here, betting on a guy that has everything to prove. 11-0-1, he just needs to throw one tug a game. This is not a run-the-pass team. They're going to sling it and let this man cook. I got a sprinkle on it. Diggs to have eight plus a hundred yard receiving games. Pace two to one. Guys already had 31 games over 100 yards in his decorated career. He had seven last year. He averaged just under 90. I look at him on the off season though. Similar sentiment. Lots of prove once more money, once another contract. And this guy from 2015, to 2018.

Only had 10, 100 plus yard games. So this dude has turned the corner consistently. He gets in the end zone a ton, by the way. Only one of five guys to get double digit touchdowns at the wide receiver in touchdown position. It's that 100 yard receiving games, but the value is in 8 plus. I think he can do it. Again, this Bill's team is stacked and he's pretty much a full proof bet one way or another. However, you dice it up.

Tua to have 8 plus 300 yard passing games. games pays almost two and a half to one. Now, listen to this. He only had seven 300 plus yard games in his career before McDaniel. Four of those, or excuse me, seven total after the season. Four of those came last year. Four. And he only played 13 games.

They're going to sling it. They consistently lean on that kind of a big 12 spread five offense. I like it. I think this is a team again that's going to get in a lot of those, you know, 28, 27, 31, 28 type games. Maybe I'm wrong on. that. But when you have Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle, you're stretching the field, baby. Those yak yards are real. I like sprinkling on that. And last but not least, I found a nine to one

prop James Robinson in the James White Roll on your local Patriots prop shop. Now, this is a dude who had 1,400 plus scrimmage yards, his rookie season. He was the free agent waiver wire Jacksonville Jaguar pickup a couple of seasons ago. Romandre Stevenson had over 1,400. Damian Harris, so they're going to split it up as they often do. But I see James Robinson stealing that third down back slot, and they don't have a lot of stretch to field options. I like a lot of checkdowns.

This is, again, an offensive line that does a lot of incredible blocking schemes, et cetera. But James, Rob, everyone's down on him. You want to win fantasy to find guys that could do one thing very well. this man is a sneaky catch and moving shake guy. I didn't get a thousand plus yards. That includes rushing and receiving. By the way, it pays 9 to 1.

I think it's a sprinkle. So we wrap up the show with over, over, over, 10.5, bills, over 9.5 and fins, jets and and dolphins. And I'm going to go under 7.5 for the New England Patriots

with those picks. We're wrapping it up here. With triple P on the mic, you got a fun one for us, Paul. Talk to me. How are we wrapping it up today? And actually, Monica, you mind if I throw a stat out you real quick? Please.

While you were talking about how much you're loving the Jets, I found this stat 36 quarterbacks through 175 passes or more last season. Of all of them, guess who had the three lowest passer ratings? Oh, my gosh. Don't tell me Aaron Rogers is in that. Three, Mike White. Two, second worst, Joe Flacco, and worst, Zach Wilson. So you're talking about the Jets here.

You said if they average 21.5 points per game, that's completely average, 11 and 5 and 6, and they're the 5 seed playing Jacksonville. So you got, yeah, that had a great point there. Thank you. I appreciate it. Look, it's an emotional purchase, but sometimes you make emotional purchases and they and they hit. Speaking of emotional purchases, I know you got something purchase related for us.

Talk to me about this segment here. Yes, I do. I'm going to, so I would like to see if you can guess. The top 10 jersey sold in the month of June in the NFL. And there has to be a couple hints here. One defender, one former player, one skill position, and three current quarterbacks. Holy cow. Three current quarterbacks.

I almost need to write that down. Three current quarterbacks. We have seven, seven current quarterbacks. One skill position, one former player, and one defender. You don't have to guess it in order, but let's see how many of the top ten you could get. before getting a third strike. All right. And I'm going to start out with some obvious ones.

I assume Mahomes is on this. This is for again, this past the beginning of the summer, June? Yep, June 1st to June 30th. Mahomes is number four. Okay. Mahomes is on there. I got, look, I'd be shocked if Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud are not on that list.

Two potential franchise quarterbacks. I just got to take that easy, easy out right there. Are they on there? Bryce Young is nine. C.J. Stroud is not. not on the list. Not. No.

No. Delboying over there in Houston. Cowboy fans all over the state. All right. So, Brian, so I got, that's one strike then. One strike. That's what just one. Just one.

I'm going to go press, Scott. I don't want to. I just, again, I don't know how the Cowboys are not top 10 jersey sales around the world. I'm going to go, I'm going to go, Dak. Believe it or not, Dak is not on the list. I thought for sure he would be.

Strike left, dude. There is a cowboy. There is a cowboy. Okay. That's, but it's a skill position? There's one defender on the list, one current defender, one former player, one skill position player. Oh, sick. So all I have in.

Quarterbacks, all I have is Mahomes and Bryce Young. All right. I'm going to start trying to be easy here. Josh Allen. Josh Allen is number five. Aaron Rogers. Number two. Okay.

Okay, so we got four quarterbacks. Yeah, yeah, you're rolling right now. You got Rogers, Mahomes, Alan, and Young. So three more current quarterbacks. Oh, man. I mean, this is a gross one. I only have one strike left. I'm trying to think about new quarterbacks and got like Herbert just inked a deal,

but the Chargers fan base. I mean, come on. Remember, it's June, too. It's June. So that deal didn't exist yet either. All right. I'm going to be sick if I lose on this. Jimmy Garapola.

Jimmy girl. No, no, no, no. I'm going to wave that. I'm going to wave the Jimmy Garapolo. Raiders have a sick fan base. They do, they do. No chance. They do.

They do. All right. Can you get the defender? Give me one. Is there a quarterback in the NFC South? Because I do have one on the tip of my tongue. There are no more. So, all right, there are no current quarterbacks from the NFC South.

No current quarterbacks. Well, I was going to go Brady out the gate for the past. Brady, yes, yes. Yeah, there you go. So Brady's the past tight end. He's a skill. Okay, this is a tough one. I don't care if it's wrong.

I'm going to go McCaffrey as the skill position. Yes. Number 10. What a get. Oh. I think now it becomes doable. Now it becomes doable here. I got one strike.

This is. Here's what's left here. You have three current quarterbacks and one defender, one current defender. One current defender. I mean, you kind of gave me a hint with the Cowboys. I mean, it's Parsons or Diggs. If it's Stefan Gilmore, I'm going to lose my mind. But I mean, I want to say Parsons, but I'm going to wait because I want to get a quarterback.

I just am flabbergasted right now at what quarterback. I'm going down the divisions here. Is two on this list? I mean, you're missing the number one guy. Oh, my God. Jalen Hertz hat. Jalen hurts. He's number one.

I mean, only the stars started Philly. Okay, I'm going to go Jalen. Okay, Jaylen, so I need two quarterbacks left. Yeah, one more big dog of the quarterbacks. I'm going to go, I'm going to go Trevor Lawrence here. No, no Lawrence. That's it. So would you like me to tell you the quarterbacks?

Yeah, I lost. I lost. All right. So here's what we got. At three was Parsons. So you would have got that one. Damn it. At six was Burrow.

I think you would have got the borough eventually. Gosh, how did I miss Joey Burr? And seven, this was- That's all me in my calf strain right there. That's not okay. I felt that, I felt that this guy at seven and McCaffrey were the two tough ones to really nail down. Justin Fields came in at seven.

Oh, I just did not. I did not go down the list. It's a tough one because a guy like Fields and Lawrence. Me does it. Well, Fields. But Jacksonville doesn't, Joe, no one cares about the Jagu. Exactly. It's the expansion team.

It's the freaking bears. I can't believe in the Capri. That's an incredible guess. Well, thank you. But it's not that hard. I mean, he's beloved with, you know,

young and he's all over and he switched teams. So there's a lot of people that got to buy that. That's kind of was my rationale. And he's a star. All right. Hey, that was fun. That was fun.

I'm glad I didn't bomb, but I'll be up late tonight thinking that fields and bro were left. Oh, no, I know you're the kind of guy that this will, this will eat at you for a little bit. But I, not terrible.

What was my worst guess, would you say, of those swing and miss three strikes? Who did I, T. Law is, okay. I think T. Law is a similar category as Fields, young upcoming dude. Man, Jimmy G, I get the rationale. That's a pretty bad one. That's a pretty, look, you know, it's good to know at the, you know, the, the certified two for most of his career is not top 10. That's just the Raiders, you know. Jack was a ridiculous guy to not be on this list.

You'd have to imagine he's on that. You would think. But yeah, no, you know, that's a pretty fair list. That was a fun game, though. I like that on the way out. Yeah, nice job. All right, man. Well, that for Paul, for myself, Monday, Lime, Monaco.

We are out of here. And as always, don't forget to hug your mothers. We'll see you next time. The volume.