The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Bold longshot bets: Warriors win West, Knicks to NBA Finals, Lakers make playoffs

Episode Date: March 4, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his betting insight and his favorite picks for NBA playoff futures. Monaco shares his picks for Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and the Golden State Warriors and Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, and the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference. He also discusses Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, and the New York Knicks' chances in the Eastern Conference and whether the Lakers can make a playoff push without LeBron James. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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It's the herd feed. It's Alex Monaco. Welcome to another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco, fresh as we turn the March Madness page here into a all-out basketball mindset. A 3-0. Perfect. Break out the Harry Potter brooms, baby.

For the Thursday, Money Line Monaco podcast, don't forget to subscribe, rate review. Goes a long way. If you've been rocking with me, just under 60% against the spread on the season. Bet $50 a game, five games a week, won you over a G, well over a G. Just want to let you know who you're listening to.

Three and O, Thursday night. I had hardened over 10.5 assist. He had 10 by half plus money, by the way. Over 32 and a half, PRA. He almost did that on just points alone. We took the Warriors in a big way over the Clippers plus three and a half. I don't know who's off to a worst start. Me dating in New York City or Russell Westbrook and an L.A.

Clippers uniform. Witness my guy in L.A. I believe he's double digits on losses in a row. Something egregious of that matter. How bad is my dating in L.A.? A girl took out a Yorkie. at the bar the other day. That's the last day I went on.

And Russell Westbrook has me beat. I digress. We live the day-to-day betting world. Day to day. Follow me on Action Network before we get into today's podcast, which is a splash of KD and the Suns want to talk about that. I have a couple of actionable items for you. I host a TV show in the New York market.

I'm on MSG. It's called The Better Half Hour, Monday through Thursday, 5 o'clock Eastern. I am the Kramer Mad Money sports betting version on TV. Point being, I work on the New York Knicks channel. I watch every minute of every game. I talk to them every show. I will be disgusting sleeves rolled up a San Diego, Southern California kid in the Big Apple,

all in on a New York Knicks in this episode. We will discuss the Wild Wild West. It's wide open. Your neighborhood nuggets. Karen's Kings pick something. These teams aren't winning the West. Durant's in the West on Phoenix. Curry is coming back.

Wiggins is coming back. We'll get to that. And the L.A. Lakers are four and one in their last five. And the market on Fandul is absolutely delectable. 23 and 12 to date up just under eight units on the week on Action Network. where my picks are. Moneyline Monaco on Instagram and TikTok. I'm Alex Monaco on Twitter.

And let's get into it. So I watch not every game of NBA basketball. It's virtually impossible. But my job is to sit there and watch ball. Now, I got no kids. I got no mortgage. I pay for a mortgage in the version of a Manhattan box. But I am all in.

I'm Daniel Day Lewis in the lab in this. betting world. I'm letting you know. I bet seven sports all day, every day. We don't break character. Just told you I went a tick under 60% on the season. Two wins for every one in the NFL playoffs. I digress. NBA is a different animal. NBA, betting this sport is so difficult. you can sit there, watch a Sixers team against the heat the other night, scratch Joe L&B at the last second,

and demolish him. This is today's MBA, and it's a fascinating one. But let's start out on the Eastern Conference. I want you to look at the futures market with me. Take a trip down Sacks Avenue, pick some, pick something in New York, and walk with me.

as we talk this out. We'll walk and talk. This New York Knicks team, who is 9 and 1 in their last 10, not just straight up against the spread, sits on Fandool at 42 to 1 plus 4,200 to win the Eastern Conference. They are 37 and 27. They are in the five seat as we speak. This is a Knicks team that, to, me who humbly, and I don't even think the Villanova Bash brothers knew it would be this electric out the gate. Acquired Josh Hart and since the acquisition have not lost the game at first,

we thought it was a fun Valentine's Day pun. Hold the E. Josh Hart on this team is doing everything that a Tommy Tibidal roster asked for. And I got to tell you this. Tibidow did a very difficult thing with this New York Knicks team in the early month of December. He went to a nine-man rotation. Fornier is on this team. Cam Reddish was on this team. Of course, Derek Rose, who again, veteran, but still on the team. There were guys on this team that would otherwise be getting NBA minutes on other clubs.

Well, Tips goes to the nine-man rotation. Since then, they have a top five record. in the NBA since the beginning of December. They are top three in offense of efficiency and defensively top five in opponent field goal percentage in the MSG pain since the ball dropped in Times Square. The New York Knicks. And I'm not sitting here in a New York market

trying to give you a hot take. They're the number one team in the NBA. record-wise since December 31st. The New York X, who are 10 and 3rd ATS in their last three. Two of those three last Ls with overtime and were less than three points spreads. This team is so fascinating. And I'm a left-handed lad. I've made a joke that ran the,

Randall Barrett and Mr. Jalen Brunson are going to be so impactful as three lefties. And I stump the Schwab tell people this all the time. Has there ever been three lefties on a starting five in the NBA? No, there hasn't. Do yourself a solid. Ask that trivia question to your NBA friends. This is how special Newton. You want to go Einstein?

Pick a law. Pick a physic about this team. it's a fascinating case study. But you look at this team. Nine-man rotation. Everybody gets minutes who plays in an important integral role. Since that moment,

I just told you the statistics, but most importantly, a team who has averaged in this win streak with Josh Hart's acquisition, over $1.20, just put up a career, a season high, 142 on Brooklyn. What this team is doing, and what I'm basically getting at, is the combination of what you just don't see on many NBA teams.

It is a, I mentioned the lefty thing, but Quentin Grimes and Josh Hart are two two-way guards that play real defense in this league. I was on a betcast Monday night against the Celtics. I was all over the Knicks. I saw with my own two eyes plus contact stigmatism, four eyes. Jason Tatum get ran out of the building. Break wedding crashes rule number six.

Draw attention to himself in a negative way. Hang on the rim. Schfitt's over here, yell over there and get ran out in a snowstorm on a Monday night in the Big Apple. But it was hard. It was Grimes. It was Barrett. This is what's fascinating about this team.

They can score with everyone. Go look at it. up top 10 offense. They can score with everyone. Jalen Brunson on this run over just the last 10, 12 games is averaging just under 30. Julius Randall is averaging just under 30 and a double double. Listen to this. Brunson and Randall are 10th and 16th.

10th and 16th in 2023 in top. 20 in scoring. They're the only duo. Top, top in that space. Not Luca and Kyrie, because you have to play 25 plus games together. Julius Randall and Jalen Brunson. And the NBA snubbing Jalen Brunson on an All-Star bid

was the best thing that happened to this team. Now, I mentioned the Grimes heart thing. Mitchell Robinson, who's a double-double machine at 23, Savage on Twitter has had three straight double doubles is on paper making the Knicks seven points better from a defensive rating standpoint. And I already spoke to you about this interior field goal percentage for opponents trying to come in and this is what I'm, this is what people aren't getting.

Okay, five teams play defense in the entire NBA all season. Five. Then they come to the playoffs and try to implement. defense. Well, if you look at what the Knicks have done on this win streak, since they got their anchor in the center spot back, since they got Josh Hart, this is a top 10 defensive team in the NBA, and I'm going to sit here and make a case in my degenerate gambling noggin that this team could be top five. Now, how much did I put on the New York Knicks at 4,200? we put a Manhattan date.

We put a Manhattan date dinner plus drinks on 4200. Now, I will say this. I took the Knicks at plus 11,000 to win the East several months ago. But to hold your opponents to under 110 and 5 of the last six, to hold Boston to their third lowest point total on this. season the other night. Yes, no, Jalen Brown, but they're 9 and 3 without Jalen Brown. Don't give me that.

It means something. It doesn't mean everything, but it means something. And the Knicks, you say this, oh, they got to go on the road. They've got to go in a ruckus environment. The Knicks are a top two against the spread team on the road and straight up. And top three is an underdog in the NBA. Here's another interesting element, an interesting nugget. I'm looking at the Eastern Conference.

The Eastern Conference, you have Milwaukee of Boston and nothing else reliable. I truly believe that. I don't trust Philly, the Sixers. We've been telling the Sixers story as long as we possibly can't remember. But to wrap it up, this is a value play, but a play that, in my humble opinion, is going to go up. Now, I can already cash out for an ROI with the $11,000, rightfully so. But just say it out loud.

They just don't have the juju. They're just off this year. No continuity. It ain't their season. Boston, just for what it's worth, by the way, hasn't had back-to-back since I was negative four years old in the bird 80s for Eastern Conference titles. They haven't done it.

Jason Tatum disappeared in the NBA finals. The bucks are on. a sick haven't lost in February winning streak. But this team in Milwaukee, for some reason, I don't trust their process. Yes, they still have their big three, but Middleton's been an afterthought. Holidays had to step up in ways he's not typically, at least on this box team, used to needing to do because he's really, at least prior to this season, a three more than a two to Middleton. But this is such a Janus contingent club.

This is what I'm trying to say about the Knicks. Monday night, Emmanuel quickly goes for over 20. Wednesday night against the net. Grimes goes for over 20. Dude, you're getting, you just heard me talk about Brunson and Reynolds production. You're going to get those numbers from those two. R.J. Barrett is a wild card that can give you 20. He's a 15 to 20 guy that can give you upside of 20.

Mitch Rob's a walking double, double. You have, to me, quickly, Obie Toppin, Josh Hart, Quentin, any of those four men give you 15 or more, any given night, this is a very, very difficult team to be. if they are playing the Tommy Tibidow defense, we all know it to be. He is the brainchild behind those Doc River Celtics teams.

What has Doc won since he divorced Tibidout? Tibidow chose basketball over a wife. He says it in his press conferences. He has one facial reaction. Look, it's a long time coming in New York. The Kool-Aid has been drank. I'm all in. It's a long shot.

I know I sound like I'm off my rocker. But if I bought it at 11,000 and it's down to 4,200, I got to be on to something. I love it, baby. All right. Let's talk about the Western Conference here. We saw Kevin Durant, unbelievable debut. We had the SGP 3 for 4 legs. We just missed on assist.

But we got him over 20 and a half points. He balled out. He is interchangeable. He is not Kyrie Irving from the Brooklyn Nets to the Mavs. This is seamless. This will take time. sure, but oh my gosh, you're already seeing the chemistry, the organic connection between D book and KD.

Chris Paul didn't even score and they covered with their eyes closed. Didn't need the State Farm Insurance. Aiton got so many cupcake double tap 2KYs. It's going to be filthy with it. It's been a game. They're the team to beat. They're the team to beat. at least expectation-wise,

but I'm not firing on them yet, and here's why. Health is a serious issue with this team in particular. They have caused people a lot of shekels because of hell. Chris Paul always finds a way to get hurt. The rant was just out for a month. The book has missed some time. Aiton's had a little off-the-court issues with Monty Williams all season.

I don't want to take it just yet. Now, at plus 230 on Fanduil to win the West, will it stay there and maybe not go down? It's probably going to go down. So if you have an inkling that the Suns are going to win the West, then just take it. But I'm here to tell you that the Golden State Warriors, my colleague, Draymond Green, is winning the West. And I'm telling you he's winning the West with this Golden State team for several reasons. Number one, what we've seen, what we've seen all season with the Warriors,

it's a facade. It's a facade. This team played the most games, the most games of any team in the NBA last year. That gets you in a sluggish mindset of a start to the beginning of the season. This is not the NFL. This is the NBA 82. I always factor that in. Sluggish start day one.

Now you could say why'd Boston come out to such a hot start. They lost. The Snickers angry. They got all the way and lost. Their head coach debacle. You could justify a few reasons why Boston came off pissed off like Boston weather. But this warrior's team with Curry still out, with Wiggins still out, with GP the Second, acquired but not yet activate, should be scary to you.

Now, I went on a rant on the podcast at plus 900 weeks ago, go in the weeds, go on my Moneyline Monaco page. I've already invested at plus 900. I knew this was coming. The West standings. Look at them with the Spacoli glasses on. Look at them with them off. I'm telling you, you're not.

looking at what the West is going to end up being. I promise you. Now, the Nuggets could win the Western Conference. Continuity-wise, the best team in the NBA all season. Costco sample shout-out. But how do we not back either the Warriors or the Suns out of the West with a long shot being my L.A. Lakers, I'll talk about it in a bit. Call me crazy.

I think there is so much value on this board in the NBA futures. market, you can sit there and go arbitrage with it. You could fire multiple times. And hopefully, hopefully, well, it's not technically that because you're not guaranteed a profit, but you could sprinkle breakfast money on a couple different options in the West and still come out with a profit. If you fire correctly, my three teams would be Golden State Phoenix and Denver. If I was picking three, I don't trust the Clippers as far as I can throw them.

I faded the heck out of them. they are worse with Russell Westbrook, as we predicted. Reggie Jackson sorely missed. And that was a huge pickup by the Nuggets, by the way. But we're looking at this warrior's team and a warrior's team that to me, and we know this to be true, already, already is starting to turn the page defensively. You've seen it in the last few outings. a clippers team.

I mean, look at the third quarter. The Warriors went on such a stick run against the clips. They held them to a 18% shooting clip in the third quarter. Four for 22. They force in one quarter, the Warriors. Seven turnovers. They scored 12 points off it. They win the quarter, 42, 16.

We always talk about the Warriors, third quarter's people. but this team is sneakily, sneakily deep. DeFenzo, who adds championship pedigree from a collegiate standpoint, Jay Wright, the George Clooney of the NCAA, coming to a company championship culture is only, and just a role player, but him, Caminga, Gary Payton II, guys that we're going to see, we're going to need to see, step up in their role.

if they do, this team is capable, especially since the all start break with a 1077 defense rating. Keeping that up with a 120 offensive rating, that's a nine game sample size with no curry. That's fourth best in the NBA at that time. Now, what does this team not have? Now, I'm sitting there selling you on the Knicks

like I host a show on their network and I do. But this Warriors team, there's no agenda. I don't want to see the Warriors win again. I'm betting money to win, people. We get hinged states contingent on this. But I have a weird feeling that this son's team, it's a crash course.

You're trying to pass the real estate exam and flip a property at the 11th hour. And the Warriors have been stacking pre-pandemic and have a whole many community over there ready to flip. They're winning games by double digits and Wiggins and Curry are not in the lineup. Put that in your head. Jordan Poole and Clay Thompson have handled the fort.

This is an exciting time for the Golden State Warriors. I need you to punch in 7 to 1. It ain't going to be there. You can always cash out. I literally said this exact words. But $100 at 901 three weeks ago, two weeks ago, whatever it was. The most fun, the most entertainment you'll have for a ticket in life. In 100 days.

That Warriors, $100. Purchase it. Let me know if you do from the pod. All right. I'm from Southern California. My favorite team is the L.A. Lakers. Dad's from New York. So I love the next two.

but this Lakers team is a fascinating, fascinating roster. I've watched a lot over the last week. Plus, I've watched the games without LeBron. I've got to be honest. The Mo Bamba debut, 12 and 7. I think Lakers fans almost forgot Mo Bamba was traded for. Polinka, Rob Lowe, did a good job. This break.

To get Hachamura, Beasley, Bomba, of course, deloading, Vanderbilt, this team is far and away better defensively.

And you look at them, they're a top five team in the league as far as points per game and top 10 and field goal percentage. They score the basketball. They're an excellent

rebounding team. They got better. You see Vanderbilt? What do you have? 17 and 18 the other night? Forget about it. Top five in rebounding. They're 14th and assist

and they are trending in that. direction shorter. Dennis Schroeder is going to be huge playing with the second unit. You've seen an uptick. You want to talk about in the weeds prop betting? Look at the value in Schroeder assist. He had double double the other night. Criminally low number on Schroeder.

He had 26 and 6 in the last game. If Austin Reeves is giving you 19, 18 and 17 and three of the last four, look people, a team that's four and one in their last five, they handled New Orleans Golden State in Dallas by double digits. The 27 point comeback by Dallas I watched in real time. I took him in 17 and a half live was a beautiful thing to watch.

But remember who the Lakers won with in the Bub, in the Bub Bowl, a developing Kyle Kuzma, a mediocre at best contavius called Well Pope. I mean, that team was not star,

stacked, studded. It was a D. and Braun and everybody else in key, key strategic role places. Now, this team has against them little to no three points shooting. They are in trouble in that regard. But that is not their M.O. Anyways, they got to play bowling ball. It's similar to the Knicks.

This Lakers team's not going to outskill you, but they could outbody you. They could out dog you. And they can get into your nymphs. like De Niro did to my guy Ben Stiller and meet the parents Act 1 scene 5. I'm watching you

fucker. But what I'm saying is this LeBron injury, you don't want to see him get injured, in a weird way, could end up being beneficial to the long-term Lakers season.

The April, May, Lakers of this season. He's getting a rest. His body has been going at an insane rate, and he hasn't gotten a break. He's resting. He's restoring. He's on his Kauai Leonard.

Finally, Larry David Lamb, like a gentleman. Take a Stogie while you're at it. But a Lakers team in all seriousness that was at plus 130? You want to talk about line movement? I got a plus 198 last week for the Lakers to make the playoffs. They go all the way down to plus 130 after they beat the Mavs. Then the LeBron news comes out. He's out for a few weeks.

Then it balloons up to 260. They smash last game, the Thunder, criminally mispriced line, hammered that at plus three and a half. How are you doing? All of a sudden, they're at plus 205. This is a volatile market and number for this Lakers team to make the playoffs. but they're at 11 at 30 and 33.

Literally, literally, literally a game behind New Orleans and Utah. Minnesota and the Clippers are all right there. The Clippers are 33 and 32 at the top of the playing and the Lakers are 30 and 33. Look, Utah ain't about it. Minnesota is, I'm sorry. take Anthony Edwards off that team. Rudy Gobert, that might be one of the worst trades in the history of the NBA. L.O.L. New Orleans is just not healthy. The Lakers are going to get a break here, people. And I'm not Mr. Conspiracy guy. I'm not Mr. NBA needs this to happen guy. But I'll be damned if you think LeBron James is not making this year's playoffs.

I genuinely feel KD and Kairie coming to his conference mid-season pissed him off. They have the second easiest schedule left, people. The second easiest. I got it right here. They got the rockets twice, the magic, the thunder. They just smoked with no brawn. The bulls twice. The Raptors who I really regret.

and Utah two times. The tough games, they got Phoenix twice, which sucks, they got the gris, the Knicks, the dubs, who are short-handed,

the clips and the maps. These games are so winnable outside of two or three. You have to purchase this. Two to one your money, plus two oh five. People. So the next.

Knicks out the tops of long shot. The Warriors is a seriously sage purchase at 7-1. I promise you, it will go down. It will continue to go down. It will be around probably $450,500 by playoffs. I genuinely believe that. And I got it at 9-0-1, and you're hearing it at 7-1. And I took the Knicks at $11,000 to 1, and they're down at 40.

11-1-1, 10-0-1, excuse me, but this team at 42-1 is worth a sprinkle. If anything, take them over on wins. I got that at 41-5 months ago. Seems going to win 50 games. And then this L.A. Lakers team, with the second easiest schedule,

winning games, they already shouldn't, playing tremendously. three futures. I want you to take them. And I want you to let me know if you take them. Don't forget to subscribe. Rate review goes a long way. Moneyline,

Monaco. We're out of here. With a FanDuo ad. The NBA season's heating up. And now it's perfect time to download FanDul. America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win.

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