The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - British Open: Rory McIlroy, Scheffler favored + how to bet Fowler, Spieth

Episode Date: July 20, 2023

Alex Monaco is joined by The Volume's John Middlekauff, host of '3 & Out' and 'Go Low,' to share their best bets for the British Open. Who’s the best bet between Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Jon Rahm? Are Dustin Johnson, Ricky Fowler, or Jordan Spieth worth sprinkling on? Later, the guys choose their three all-time NFL quarterbacks to be apart of their ultimate golf foursome, including Tom Brady and Peyton Manning! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. All right, welcome to another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline Monaco, Alex Monaco on with my man on the volume sports network, John Middilcoff. I hit them every time there's a golf major and we got the open coming up this weekend. John hosts both three and out and go low, the golf exclusive pod on volume. John, beautiful day in the neighborhood. I'm finally joining you on some sunny Southern California skies. Not going to be the case with the open weather.

We'll get to that. but thanks for coming on, man. Yeah, it's a bittersweet time of year. You know, it's the last major of the year, but that also means football is basically right around the corner. So we kind of say goodbye to golf and hello to the little thing they call the National Football League. Absolutely. Well, this tournament, rich in history, we know, founded in 1860, originated in Scotland.

This is a fascinating across the pond layout. And again, just for those listening, we got to, we got to factor in. this unique season of golf, the live guys now in it because it's a major. We've seen a lot of turnover here. Cam Smith won it last year. I'm looking at the winners of the last five. I mean, pick a continent, pick a country. We got Australia, Morikawa, Ireland, Italy, all over the place.

Do we expect, I'll start here, Cam Smith, the repeat, or is it going to have history on our side here? And it should be a new name. Yeah, I saw he said to his buddies, get ready. we're going to drink again out of this bad boy at the end of the week. So he's a pretty confident dude. I mean, he's,

to me, him, he's in that umbrella with, with DJ Brooks and Bryson of just devastating losses for the PGA tour. And you could put him and Brooks even above, because DJ's almost 40 years old, had a hell of a run. Brooks and especially Cam,

who's a little younger in the prime of his career, just a badass. I mean, last year, think about last year, 150th Open Championship at the old course. The headliner was Tiger and who was really struggling, right? Who could miss the cut by a wide margin.

So he kind of took the first, all the energy the first two days. And then it was Rory. Like Rory, he's taken on live at the time this before they became buddies. Well, not Rory and live, but the PGA Tour and live. And then Cam Smith just comes out of nowhere on Sunday and dominates and Rory can't make a put. So it was a pretty historic victory from Cam Smith, not just any time you win. a major, it's a big deal. But taking down Rory like he did, I think I heard someone say, it's the first time in the Open Championship that a leader hit every green. So he has a birdie

putt on every single hole and doesn't find a way to get it done. And part of the reason was like he had these long ass puts. He couldn't make kind of what happened to him at LACC. And Cam, I don't even know what you'd compare him to, like the equivalent of like Stefan Clay shooting threes, maybe not Clay right now, but back when Clay was also good at shooting threes, that's him as a putter. I mean, the dude makes putts. And obviously, he's an elite player. But like, when you can putt major championships, I mean, we talk about Tiger, all the sweet shots. Close your eyes. What do you think of? You think of a lot of puts that he made when he

had to. And that's Cam Smith. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't be shocked at all if he's in the mix come the weekend. Well, you mentioned Rory. As a few guys, we'll start with the big three, of course with him coming off the dub there on the Scottish Open last week. And really looking at his tournament acumen, how he's done it. We remember 2014, 143rd tourney here. He was 17 under, won it by two strokes. Coming in in great form, you know, I asked you these questions. A couple of variables, how are these golfers doing leading up?

Rory has been knocking on the door. Got a huge win. I mean, that shot to get him on the green for the win on 18. it was incredible. So where are you with Rory for this tournament? Pending where you shop, he is the chalk outside of him and Scott. Well, I think last year he was definitely top 10 in every major. Might have been like top five or six.

But some of those like Sunday on the Masters two years ago, remember he chips in from the bunker and they go nuts and then Morikawa does. It was cool. Kind of a backdoor like top five. If you look at the open last year, which he easily could have won, the U.S. Open this year, which he should have won. Again, couldn't make a put. So two of the last four majors, he has kind of been in the driver's seat on Sunday.

He just hasn't got it done. It's different than like John Rom finished top 10 at the U.S. Open. We shot 65 on Sunday. So it's a little bit inflated. Like Rory legitimately could have won two of the last four. And then like you said, coming off, it's one thing. A lot of guys you would never bet on them to go back to back when the second tournament's a major. For Rory, it's a little different.

To me, I'd put him in like Tiger or Phil or some of the all-time greats. like that's a good thing, especially the way he won it. You know, I think we give a lot of credit in like football, right? When you're down, Mahomes can be down all game, have the worst game ever, fourth quarter, throw three touchdowns. You're like, that dude just has this grittiness. All the great quarterbacks from Farve to Elway to Montana to Brady. They always had that. Tiger always has that as a golfer.

You know, the great tennis players have that. They're just like this grittiness to him. That's never really been the thing with Rory. It's like he's kind of a front runner. I mean, at the highest level. He gets a lead and he just can keep his foot on the pedal. That was the first time. It's like, God, this shit is not going well.

He's down. He's down one shot going into 17. Wind is pumping. And he birdie 17 and 18. And then like you said, the shot in 18 was, I think he did say is one of, if not the greatest shot of his career. It's not the most important shot, but it might just be the greatest shot. So the other thing is that shot has a lot of parallels because it's got a show.

They're already over the pond in the wind. it's like, so he's, he's kind of vibing right now. The number is a little, like him and Scotty, you're just betting like Tiger odds, right? Six, seven to one. Yeah. So like I lump ROM in there too and his odds are almost double, you know, 12, 13 to 1. So just the value is in John Rom. But Scotty Schaeffler is having a historic season every single week, top five.

He hasn't finished outside of the top 10 since 2022. I mean, he's just, he's a machine. I'm telling you. He hasn't been winning, but he's a top five machine. Yeah, did you see that stat on top 10? If you just put a hundred bucks on them every weekend, you'd be 10 X in your money, John, on on Scotty Sheffler, top 10 finishes, to your point.

Think about this. 19 million dollars he's made this year. And this is, you know, the golfers make a lot like Tiger and Phil and endorsements and stuff, but 19 mil on the course. So that's, he's headed for, you know, like a max NBA, deal here. He's going to end the season if he wins the FedEx Cup like $35, $40 million. I got a stat here 18

times in a row. Now, again, we do it as far as betting top five, top 10, but he's got 18 top 12 finishes in a row here. It's the longest streak on the PJ tour of more than 40 years. Looking at the value here for Scotty and again, we'll talk out the big three.

I'll get to Rahm in a second. Where are we with this? I mean, since the start of 2020, he's 62 under in majors. 27 strokes better than any golfer in that span. I mean, you have to bet him, but how do you bet? I mean, you probably just bet him to win. I mean, that's the way, that's the way I would do it.

Because any time you are around the hoop that often, it just eventually goes in. And when you're having, he's, he's having for a guy that hasn't won a major, probably the best season, non-major winner in a couple decades, right? I mean, statistically, he's having like a Tiger Woods in his prime level season playing in terms of scoring in terms of every single week. I think there was, he's got, it's either six or seven straight top fives. Now, some of those are like T-4s and T-5s.

Like he's not solo, but he is, I think, six or seven straight. The record is like Tiger, I think, was like 11, but three or four of those were wins. Like Scott, he's just, he's not winning these tournaments. He's just rattling off cash, right? So it's just, it's really coming down to him. It's the difference of like legitimately,

know in football we're like, oh, bounce here. The difference between 10 wins and 8 wins. It's like two plays throughout the season. Scotty is like legitimately two puts and he's got five wins this season and he's got $28 million. And we're looking at, you know, to round out the big three here, Rom, you mentioned him 12 to 1. Typically, you're not getting over even 10 to 1 for Johnny Rom.

We won the Masters. The guy won the Masters. That's all I was going to ask you. Are we talking about a. slept on Rom and then I do want to get your thoughts on this. I want to revisit it again. I ask you that nonverbal question, you know, studying these guys are all quarterbacks of their own franchises. He said Rory, correct him if I'm wrong, plays better when he's happier and in a good mood. Johnny Rom gets a little, you know, Snickers hangary, get on his Carlos Alcaraz, if you

will, down one set on Sunday. Where are we with Rom's temperament at the moment? And then how do you expect to kind of maybe live bet him or bet him this weekend? Yeah, to me, the value is him. if you're going to hammer one of these guys just because the payout is dramatically bigger. And the moment like the live betting problem with him, depending on like difference from just some of the other guys that are 30, 40 to 1, that if they are tied for the lead come Saturday, he immediately gets treated like those guys. So he,

if he's won back going into Sunday, he could be like minus 110, right? He'll get treated like an elite player, which he is. But like the odds right now are just a little off the cent, because he hasn't been playing much. He hasn't been playing as well. He's won four times.

Scottie Shepler's won twice this year, right? He's got a major. Rory and Scott did you not. And his major. A master's. He won the Masters. And he looks, he's like,

Brooks Keppler, you want it? I got, I'll give it to you. Right. And he gave it to him. So it's like, he took down Kepka,

who also has a major this year. So it's like, I, now, do you have, do you have a pretty good pulse on ROM? Like, again, I'm fascinated with studying.

No, I just nonverbly, Throughout the four days, when is the best time if you don't want to pre-fire on ROM? Do you have a good idea of when? Because I've seen him live swing in a number of ways where he's down and then he comes out of nowhere like a horse, you know,

in the last two, three furlongs and catches a W. So I'm always curious about your live betting. Yeah, to me, if you're going to live bet him, I would wait obviously till the, you know, like early Saturday. And if you can get him a couple back and you can get him at like two to one. But his odds, he could be, some guys can be two back and be seven. an eight to one, right? Rom could be two back and be like, you know, plus 150. So he's,

like I said, if he is showing signs of life, which you kind of know early with the guy, remember at the Masters, double bogies whole one. And people are like, and I think Zach Ertz had texted, he's done a group text with JJ Watts, Zach Ertz, and John Rom, all Scottsdale guys. Zach fires off right when he's like on the putting green before he tees off, like, go get it, can't wait to watch you win this thing. And then he doubles. And then JJ. Jay Texan like way to jinx him. And then what did Rom do? I think he rattled off like eight birdies,

the next 17 holes. And he was tied for the lead or right there, right at the end of one. So it's like, when Rob's dialed, he's kind of got this red ass like Brady thing to him. Like he's very serious, Peyton Manning,

very serious cat, not Mr. Smiley, like, like Roy. So, you know, Scott,

he's kind of fun loving. Some of the, you know, Jordan Spee's fun love. And like, Ram's not Mr. Joveill on the golf course. But when he's got it on,

like he can, I mean, obviously, go as low as anyone probably like beside Tiger Phil over the last 20 years. Let's talk a little to live guys. Again, it's a fascinating conversation really from a betting thought that, you know, if you're betting week to week like you are, I am on the PJ tour and then factoring in the live guys. I mean, let's start with Kepka and DJ. You can wrap them up both in one. I mean, four top 10 finishes in Kepka's last six opens.

He's looking to become the eighth golfer ever, John, to have. multiple seasons with multiple majors, of course, Nicholas, Tiger Woods, among that decorated list. And we got DJ with 16, 16 top 10 major champion champion that finishes to his name. How do we bet these two guys? And are you taking any of them to win it all? I'm not as confident on DJ. Not that he's got fat and happy, but he got a ton of money. He was already really, really accomplished, has less majors than Kepka, but had won, you know, 20 plus events. He had won an event, I think, like 10 straight years on the PJ tour. Like he had kind of like Hall of Fame career where Brooks has always admitted like DJ tried in

the random tournaments. Like you could turn on Riviera or whatever Memorial. Like DJ cared for a long time. Brooks really for the last whatever six, seven years like as told you the majors. And he's won the waste management a couple times, which makes sense, right? What is it? It feels big time event. The other random events he doesn't get up toward. So to me, DJ I'd probably be off the cent Kepka I just I can never fault anyone it like is he going to win two majors in a year you just

like it's just for the third straight time now is 18 1 to 1 to that point John is that insane value 18 to 1 I would feel better of doing something like a top 10 it gives you a little leeway you know this is another one the draw

the weather can change on you fast so there are some variables that are just out of everyone's control but like you said this guy is Fair, obviously he's won the U.S. Open and PGA Championship multiple times, but he has had success across the pond because people don't realize, like, early on in his career, he was not like Tiger Phil or Jordan Speed. He didn't get to go right to the PGA tour. He like played all over the world, right? He was not some elite blue chip prospect. So he kind of knows the elements all over the world. And I think that gives him a little bit of an advantage here for a lot

of American guys that, you know, are used to living in Arizona, Dallas, or Florida. It's kind of warm, right they don't live in these places because it's it's not a fun place to play golf it's cool to watch and i bet these guys say it's cool to do for like a week or two but it's it's not like we play golf i mean golf to me like baseball is a warm weather sunny sport right and just factoring that in obviously the weather is one is there any different golf approach you take if you will at the book this weekend because it is across the pond the domestic guys maybe do you look at betting some of these Americans in a different way, a Speeth, a Moriqa who has won this tournament. Do you look at betting anybody in a different way because of the weather and because of where it is?

Yeah, I think Spee statistically is like the best open player of the last like decade. Yeah, he's had a ton of success across the pond. He's a very artistic player and this calls for a lot of that. Like you run balls up, you keep it below the wind, you just do crazy shit. But he's playing pretty poorly. Now, that's the hard part in golf. Like, you can be playing poorly, then all of a sudden, get a top five or a win.

But I'd stay off speed. To me, Fleetwood is a guy who's finished high in this tournament multiple times. According to, like, he's not from far away from where this tournament's being played. He just was in the final group with Rory last week. He's playing really well. To me, Hammer him, top five, top 10. Ricky as well, who ironically, when Rory won at this place in 14. finished second. He's had success just across the pond. He's actually, when he's playing well,

I think he has like nine or ten top five finishes and majors. He's never won a major, but Ricky's little like Kepka, like the poor man's version, kind of a bright lights guy. You know, just, you saw Scurry win last week at ACC. Well, he just, he likes a lot of people around. Some people, there's a pressure like, I love Max Homa, but majors kind of been shitty. Patrick Cantlay. Like, you know, some guys the majors, you can really try hard, and other guys just kind of shine. Like, Rory might not win them all,

but he's just, he's going to play well in these majors, right? And I think Ricky now that he's got it, he's got a vibe in again, which he really does. I mean, he is, I think he's like the fifth or six best player so far this season,

by all metrics. I don't think, you know, in the 20, 25 to one, him and Fleetwood, not a lot of win. They haven't won. They never won a major either of them. I think that value,

though, that just give you a chance. It wouldn't be shocking to see one of those two, like, tied for the lead. Ricky's been in the last group. Fleetwood's been in the last group. I think when Shane Lowry won, he was in the last group with him. Like these guys, these guys can play over there and they can play in the big moments. The other thing is the crowds, if the weather is not crazy, these people freaking love golf.

You know, it's like you go to like, they're like Vikings fans going to a game. They are Bill's fans. They want to be there, rain sleet or snow. Yeah, I think EPL soccer. You know, it means a lot to them. But so it's an intense environment. Yeah. Honestly, regardless of the weather.

So being able to handle that, that's going to knock some guys off right away. The pressure of that factoring in the weather. It's just there's a lot going on. The time change. I mean, most of these guys live in like central time zone. And now you're, you've been over there now for a couple weeks, eating food's a lot different. I know these guys are rich. They can bring their chef or whatever.

But still, it's, it's, it's one thing to be in an Airbnb, right? in New York or L.A. It's another thing to be kind of in a foreign place. You kind of factor that in. And to your Fleetwood thought here, three top five finishes in majors over the last two years. He's only behind McElroy and Sheffler. So dude can play. And again, right down the street, we've seen that, you know, in the L.A.s of the world with the, with the homas and the cant lays, you know, being in whether you grew up there, went to college there, some sort of lean and over across the pond, we don't see these opportunities a ton. I was I was curious. Fleetwood is on your board. I love to hear that.

Just a couple more for you. There are fun prop bets out there. Are you thinking about putting any of the big three together? There's, of course, you could bet Rom, Sheffler, and Rory all together to finish top five, finish top 10, top 20. Is this a tournament to look for those big names and maybe capitalize on a top finish and not try to pick a winner? Don't hate that because you get a little bit better odds, but that's just history. You just look at the top fives of the last majors. There's usually kind of a wild card or two involved in it that just knocks, you know, a guy out. Like that's the hard part about golf.

When you start factoring in a lot of people, it's one thing to do with two guys, like the top 10. Once you get that third, all it takes is for a couple randos, hell, maybe even a rando winner. And then it just kind of knocks guys down. That's the only thing that gives me a little pause. I think just pick one of the three and kind of go big because I think at minimum you're giving yourself a 66% chance because two of the three big guys are going to be in the mix. Whatever combo it is, it could be Rom Rory, it could be Rory Scottie, it could be Scotty but I'd be stunned if those guys aren't kind of lurking come the weekend.

And I mentioned this off the top, you know, four continents in the last four years, excuse me, four countries in the last four years have won this tournament all over the board. I mean, literally, Ireland, Australia, Italy, the United States. If you were to pick a country, who are you picking on the prop board? Because that is an actual bet in this tournament. You know, it's probably between ROM and Fleetwood. So it would be England and Spain. All right.

But I don't think Ricky, you know, I don't hate Ricky. I mean, he's, it'd be pretty cool to watch his, his plightness comeback, especially like it wasn't that long ago when, I guess he kind of blew the U.S. Open. I mean, he was in the final group. He was the favorite. And he fell apart. I mean, he shot 75. So I'm really on those three guys, especially when you factor in value and numbers a little longer than ROMs. Fleetwood and Ricky, I like those two guys a lot.

And then just last, last thing before we get into one fun thing for. the wrap up of the show here. The Victor Hovland's, even just Bob McIntyre guy who was neck and neck with Rory last week. Any any top 20, top 30, top 40 value plays you like here of not necessarily the top five, top 10 names in the sport. What I like doing with like a guy like Hovland or, you know, Terrell Hatton's a guy that gets a lot of love, Shane Lowry. Yeah.

Is kind of do that group betting. And you know, when they put the four guys and whoever you like the most, it's a little bit harder usually at the top, right? Because it's like Capka, Cam, Rom, Rory, Scotty. But like that, those next tier groups, when you love a hat and when you love a Lowry, all they got to be is four other guys and you can usually get them, you know, depending three and a half to four and a half five to one. You know, sometimes like if you love a homa, if you love whoever your guy is on that given week, that group betting is pretty fun. You don't have to put a lot. It's got a little like money line underdog NFL feel.

Like you like I like this team a lot. No one's off them. And you get them three, four to one. I'm going to hammer the money line. You kind of do that. And you just, instead of playing the field of 140 guys, you're really just playing four.

I've hit a couple of those over the years when I like a guy. I like that. All right. So just to consolidate your bets here, you're high on ROM. You like Fleetwood on a flyer. I know you pick two or three guys to win. Couple of guys top five, top 10.

You want to. Fleetwood and Ricky, too, if top five's in top 10. Like if you're feeling really aggressive, dabble a little bit to win, but top five, top 10 is usually the safest. Yeah.

But I think one of those two guys is going to be right in the mix and finished a higher than five. Great value from Mr. Middilkoff. Moving on to a new segment called Ultimate Forsome, presented by Netflix's quarterback. For the first time ever, the NFL allowed quarterbacks to be miced up for every single game of the season. Quarterback gives fans an unprecedented window

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Shout out, of course, Omaha and everyone behind. I've been seeing volume sports on there in the first few apps. They're coming back season two, you're saying? Oh, they're coming back. It was today, today news. So big, big dubs for everyone involved. But we got something here. Look, we're talking golf.

We're talking quarterbacks. I got a little ultimate foursome segment here, John. That's essentially presented by Netflix. quarterback and I'm going to I'm going to give you the the happy Gilmore cart to fill up you could call it a celebrity weekend or you could take us you know to a to a real course here on Augusta you know a pebble beach a historic location I want to hear who you take in the quarterback land past or present to golf with you when it comes to the course I would probably try to go a little easier so we could have a good time because

because my foresome is going to include some alcohol. And I think I'm going to go with, I'd have to go with the Brady or Manning. And I think I'm going to lean Peyton. He's a little bit more probably, not to pay Tom's not, historian of the game so he could relate to my other two. He just,

I think would be a pretty fun time. You never know with Tom, like family stuff. It could be in a bad mood. You know, he's got a lot going on. He lost some money crypto-wise. So I'm going to go Peyton.

I'm going to go. They work together. I was watching the ACC Lway has been like a lifetime scratch golfer. They say I was watching the American Century and they're like, John told us he's playing his best golf since he became the GM. So it's amazing. Get out of the NFL. You start playing more golf.

John likes to throw him back, have a good time. I think Peyton John, they could reminisce on their good times in Denver. Just guys, guys. And then I'm going for a fun time. I'm going Kenny the Snake Stabler, who said that he's read. He said he read the playbook by the light of the juke box. and I think Elway and Peyton, you know, they would, all those three would just have a good time. And I'd just be kind of just having some pops, listen to them, tell stories.

We got every generation covered, the 70s, the 80s and 90s, and then the last, you know, 20 years with just, you know, three of the all-time sportsmen in the history of the national football league. I love it. Look, we're eerily similar in as far as just thinking. can, you know, fun and going on decades. I got to go with Peyton. I thought about the exact same thing. I got to go Manning or Brady. You know, today's the 19th year of the debut of entourage.

And I thought back to Brady in that golf episode. He looks like he takes the sport a little seriously. You know, we've seen him on the match. Like, you know Peyton's bringing the jokes. He's bringing the beers and he's bringing the stories. Brady, you might get in that Jordan standoff where he might want to take everything. worth. And again, as a, as a better here, I go into that mode. I'm not enjoying myself as much. So I think Payton's the no-brainer pick, which I think he is a no-brainer. I was thinking out

way, but you know what? I'm a big H. Ventura guy. I think Dan Marino is a subtle guy to bring all. Look, I hope you saw, you know, he's done his fair share of obviously on camera stuff. I think that's a dude that shoots it straight from the hip off camera. And again, we've seen him on camera not nail the lines and have that side of them come out. I'm like, this guy would be tremendous with a Stogie and something to sip on. And, you know, I thought long and hard about rounded now. I'm like, all right, Manning, Marino. I flirted with Broadway, Joe, for some reason, Aaron Rogers 2.0, right now, Aaron Rogers.

He's going to bring the ayahuasca or something far out there for everyone who enjoy. And, you know, I think him. him, Manning, and Marino. I think as long as you get McAfee, Aaron Rogers and not, you know, media Aaron Rogers, we're in for a force. Obviously, I'm picking Torrey Pines. The curveball there would be you get Marino on a bad day and Rodgers on a bad day. You and Peyton just have to share a cart, you know, those two guys.

I mean, that could be explosive anger between those two. So you even Peyton in the other cart, no matter what, you're guaranteed a good time. I love it. Hey, well, it's always a good time with you on the mic, John. I appreciate you. Go low, three and out, one of the best in the podcast game. Appreciate your work, all the value you bring. And, of course, coming on with us and sharing your knowledge on the open,

good luck with your bets. I'm tail with them, baby. Let's go. Thanks, bro. Let's roll. The volume.