The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Danger Meter Part 2: NFC Division Champions in most danger of losing crown

Episode Date: August 27, 2023

Alex Monaco shares which 2022 NFC division winners are in the most danger of losing their crown in 2023 among the Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. All right. Welcome into another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco, Alex Monaco, chilling on the ones and twos. You can feel the fall air. You can just feel it. It's changing. Summer is almost over.

Of course, we got Labor Day weekend next weekend to officially wrap up, feeling like we're turning the page to football season. But we got college football this weekend. We have more interesting. NFL preseason games joined by my producer, Paul, who I do want to mention is holding a challenge flag. For those listening, we are implementing this in today's episode as we get into it. And I'll explain what it is first before we talk out the topic.

A challenge flag is very simple. You are contesting the play on the field. In this instance, my take. And what we're talking about today, like we did yesterday, ranking the AFC, but now we're doing the NFC. and we're going to talk out by way of a danger meter, how likely or not likely, first place teams from last year are to be dethroned.

So we got a little meter going here. The Austin Powers danger meter, as I like to call it, one to three means you're in little to no danger. Four to six means you're in moderate danger, seven to ten, very dangerous. In all likelihood, you're going to lose your first place division. I actually did a little research on this before the show. Just curious on the worst to first category.

As we know, and I'll talk out the NFC North, I do have a worst to first in this episode. We'll get to it. But how likely does a Jacksonville, Jaguar, Urban Meyer 3 and 14 team come back the following year, which was last year and go Doug Peterson worst to first? Believe it or not, since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, there's been 27 teams, 27 that have gone from worst to first. That's an average of 1.35 teams over this 20 year span. Ladies and gentlemen, that is statistically telling you there is a team going from last place to first place in this NFL league coming up. And I can't wait to get into it. Just like yesterday,

we start out with the Super Bowl representative of the conference. So we go right to the NFC East as we dive in starting out with this Philadelphia Eagles team. And I got to be honest, it is an interesting schedule. Can't say there's many cupcakes on the schedule. First six weeks of the season, they're going to be coming in with momentum. They got New England. They got Minnesota. Those two are more challenging than a Tampa, a Washington, a Rams, three, four, or five. So I expect them to come in and not necessarily have what we saw the Bengals have off a losing Super Bowl game and be a four and four lackluster start. I think this team is very special, very motivated. They did lose both their coordinator. So it's going to be a little more on Siriani to be the

leader of men here. But thankfully, they have a Gerald Butler 300 type leader under center number one, Jalen Hertz. So I put this team on the danger meter at about a four. I think they're moderately in danger. And that's more. me tipping my fro to the Dallas Cowboys. Because the Dallas Cowboys, as we'll talk out here in a second, have a ton of momentum coming into this year. But let's not forget the Kings of the East at 14 and 3. First, in the NFC, almost through and through, sun up to sundown.

They were the number three scoring offense, top three in yards as well. Their defense, again, number one in yards allowed per game. They led the NFL in sacks, and they were historic with it. 10 plus sacks from four different lads. They go out, they lose, unfortunately, Javon Hargrave, but they come in and they draft so well again, Jalen Carter, the thought that Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis on the front line for the Georgia Bulldogs and college

are now together in the NFC East on the same line, with the ability to be coached up by a Brandon Graham, by a Fletcher Cox, by a Hassan Reddick, the decorated Josh Sweat front side, front line. It's disgusting. It's disgusting. I got a conspiracy theory about what happened with that

defensive line having zero sacks in the Super Bowl. I digress on what that the grass had in it. But I move on. I look at this team. I look at the structure, the infrastructure of this team. There's not much missing. They had the number one ranked offensive line last year.

Jason Kelsey's got an interesting prime documentary coming out on, I think it's September, first week, second week of September. But he leads the front. They do so much well fundamentally. They play excellent in the trenches. They make fundamental decision making at the quarterback spot. Jalen Hurts, you're not seeing him make a lot of mistakes. He plays within reason.

The defense clearly, we saw them a little susceptible on the run, but one of the best past defenses in the league last year. And they're running a lot of guys back for the most part at key spots. Then again, you know, you make the Super Bowl. There's a little bit of turnover. but I look at this Eagles team and I think only, only the Dallas Cowboys can debunk them. Here's the thing, though, about back-to-back champs in the NFC East. There hasn't been a repeated NFC East winner in two decades, not since the Eagles, ironically,

0-1-0-4, little McNabb, little T-O, had the division back-to-back. So there is a little bit of a spooky trend there of being. nervous and precocious about firing on the Eagles, they sit to win the division at just about even money, or I should say normal juice, minus one pen. That's what you would put on a NBA spread one side of the other, NFL spread one side of the other. That's what they are. The Cowboys at plus 175 as we get into talking them as the top challenger here in the division, you cannot understate this Dallas Cowboys team. Now, I happen to follow and know most people in the sports betting world. I've been doing this for a long time. I know a lot of sharps.

I track. I follow. I see who's on who. There are a lot of people that bet professionally, not host television shows or sports podcast, literally make their living off of betting sports on the Dallas Cowboys, not just at over nine and a half wins, not just to win the NFC East to make a run to the Super Bowl. This team's won 12 games in the last two years. McCarthy, as I've said before on previous episodes, has a great track record. Three separate runs of 10 plus wins in three straight years. Three separate runs in the NFL of 10 plus wins in three straight years. Guys got a decade worth of 10 plus wins.

And in this fourth year in Green Bay, we remember they were 11 and 5 in their fifth year. He went to the Super Bowl. So we saw a little bit of turnover. Some of it was Zeke on the field. Some of it was Kellynmore to Hollywood. They got obviously McCarthy at the play call, and they did bring in Schottenheimer. But look, this team was fourth in points per game last year, 10th and overall yards, best red zone offense in the league.

I spoke that to the aons on the NFC East episode. They were 71% touchdown conversion rate inside the 20. And Dak led the league in interceptions with 15. there's going to be a little bit of new challenges. There always are in year to year for teams. What are going to be the big challenges for this Dallas team? If you're talking out betting, you're trying to figure out, are you over, you under? This team's winning 10 games.

I'm telling you, I'm telling you right now, it's one of the better bets on the board for win totals. This team is stable. This team has very little holes, a top five offensive line, a sick with a defense that was number one in takeaways last year, almost two per game. And sixth and points allowed. They led the league in takeaways for past defense. Top 10 in opponent's yards per game. They got the second year in a row,

second in the defensive player of the year polling. Michael Parsons, not a bad sprinkle, just how those voting polls go worth it. This dude led by the back, the secondary, digs locked in for the future. They go out to get Stefan Gilmore, an excellent cover corner.

This team has done. dog, this team has star power, and this team has an unbelievable offense and defense a line. And that's what you need. Dak, I said this before, I'll say it again, doesn't have to play outside of himself. I do believe this Deuce Vaughn guy coming out playing the Pollard role, Pollard playing the Zieg role is going to be more beneficial to Pollard this year than Pollard was last year to Zeeke. That's how strong and I am on Deuce Fawn coming. up and coming in. He's shifty. He's speedy. To me, he's got a little bit of Darren

Sprouls in his game, but he's also got the ability to run between the hash marks. And for me, I'm concerned about Pollard. I'm seeing him going top two or even late first round, early second round in fantasy. He's not a Belcal back. It was his first season over a thousand yards last year. He got banged up in the most important game. He broke his ankle. So I'm concerned about a few things. Dak needs to go back to the rookie quarterback. mindset. He needs to play time of possession, fundamentally sound football. When they need him to make a play, he needs to make a play. But this team, this O line, this run game, it can be a balanced squad. And this is football. If your offense is helping

your defense and your defense is helping your offense, that's top shelf cheap, baby. That is top shelf flow. Just really remind yourself, you have a top three offensive line. And the number one team in takeaways on defense. They got almost two turnovers per game. I mean, you start to look at the competition in the NFC, which is the Costanza opposite of the AFC. This is a not pack. This is like summer movies. You got two blockbusters, three, Barbie Oppenheimer, Eagles, Niners, Cowboys, ain't nobody else going to the movies. This team was top two in turnover differential. They had plus 10 in that category. Turnovers for first turnovers against. Only the San Francisco 49ers had a better turnover to give away, take away to give away ratio. This team,

if Dak can just chill out a little, his going to be sick with it. I put this, this Cowboys team at really a probably, I put the Eagles at four. I'm going to say they're going to take the spot here on a high chance of taking, taking the Eagles on the one seat, they are in a seven to 10 range here. They are very dangerous to swoop. They're the Eagles top dog in the east. As we talk out this Giants team, commander's team real quick, I look at this division and I actually see less E Hollywood true story drama here than years past. Isaiah Simmons gets traded. The Cardinals have to be the worst run franchise in the NFL in the last five years. I mean, unfathomable.

Where is the infrastructure from the Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Edgar, and James days? What is going on in Arizona? The deep backs aren't going to the playoffs, people. Forget about it. I look at the Giants. Over seven and a half wins is now one of my favorite bets in the NFC. This is a team that beat the market in Vegas game after game after.

game. They were the number one cover in the league. Remember the lions two years ago? Jared Goff got the town. They weren't winning games, but they were covering spreads. That was the Giants. And the Giants still were winning games. 9-7 and 1 last year. ATS as a road dog against the spread, 7 and 1. First in the league on the road covering as an underdog against the spread, 10 and 2, top 3 cover. For this team to have covered 13 spreads and 1-9. I don't think you can make a case for a better team to bet on last year coming into this year. Now, didn't love the offseason drama with Sequin. I don't love that the Giants are living a little bit in the past.

Feels like they're on a sidekick while we're all on iPhones. They're trying to really implement almost old school football to some degree. And I don't hate it because Wink Martindale on the defensive coordinator side and Brian Dable to mere our top three, one, two punch from a coaching standpoint in this NFL league. I don't think they win the division. I mean, they're sitting there for clearly good reason at around plus 700. So it's great value. But I mean, they're at about a three or a four, little to no danger, moderate danger,

coming out of nowhere and winning this division. Though I do think they could get into the playoffs. And I do believe this is another. team like last year that gets nine wins. And this commander's team is interesting. I watched that Ravens game. They ended the Ravens double double dozen win streak in the preseason. Howell looks like he could work.

And this is one of those teams that has had such a bad offense. And I don't even know how long. I mean, I got to go back to you like that. Kirk Cousins the last time this team had anything viable on offense. They've never ranked higher than. 23rd in offensive categories under Ronnie Rivera. I love Ron Rivera. The defense is where they're going to stay in game.

Seventh and points allowed last year, third in yards, but they were 26 in overall turnover ratio. So this team has to get Eric B. Enemy fundamentally. He's got to take over championship pedigree. They've got to play within their means. Howell looks like one of those guys who's got sneaky athleticism and a little bit of dog and a decent amount of upside.

but they've got to get the Chase Youngs of this team healthy. They've Terry McLaren hurt himself the other day. He's nothing serious with the foot. But either way, they're going to have a lot to have to go right to be able to win over six and a half. I do think over six and a half is very achievable. I actually think that this team does turn a positive corner because I like to talk about off the field affecting on the field.

And Dan Snyder was a freaking gateway computer. Dell computers virus from back in the day. Now they got a Mac. They can't get a virus. And I like over six and a half, but they are about a two or a three as far as little to no danger to take over in the NFC East. As we move on,

that was the most interesting division. We'll go faster here. NFC West. Let's talk this out. This San Francisco 49ers team making headlines this week because of their third string quarterback. How about Trey Lance probably getting a. on the trade block by the end of the preseason and shipping maybe to Minnesota.

My guy Paul's Club, I've seen some murmurs there. It's interesting. But Sam Darnold coming in and earning the two spot pretty much shows you where Shanahan and Lynch are at. Now, this team under Shanahan's won 13 games two times. They're over under 10 and a half. This is a team that's juiced pending where you shop at winning the NFC West. minus 165.

This team has just about everything. Unlike other clubs who have the quarterback, but not the infrastructure, this team is the opposite. They have everything. They have a unbelievable smothering defense. Three pro bowlers on the defensive side led by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. They have unbelievable star power on offense. Debo Samuel, CMAQ, Iuke, George Kittle.

They went 10 and 0 as the home favorites last year. They were 13 and 4 with the number 1D. They are in the danger meter about a two. I'd say a two because it's a two horse race in the division. This team just has to also, like the Cowboys, play within reason. They don't have a top 10 quarterback, but they have a top three infrastructure. This team only has one club, the Seattle Seahawks, who all talk out as the top challenger to take them down. I don't see how they don't run it back when the division is.

as well. I think it's a must fire. I think it's an absolute must fire at minus 160 for this team to win the division. Now, the top challenger, the Seattle Seahawks has to be the top in the division to debunk them. Yet they sit and you have to think about this too. I say this in fantasy when you're getting ready to do your fantasy drafts. Go to the sports book and see where the books have the skill position players you want to draft. When you're assessing team, teams go to the sports book and see where they have them. This is the only division that has two games, two games separating the first place team and the second place team.

Over 10 and a half wins for the Niners, over eight and a half wins for the Seahawks. You're going to sit here and tell me you feel all in great about Pete Carroll and the Bazooka bubble gum chewing Seahawks taking down a top three roster. I feel good about a chance at it. I feel little to no confidence. They're truly going to win because it's going to take 11. Maybe do I dare say 12 wins to knock this Niners team off the top roster. But I will put the Seahawks in a moderate danger,

4 to 6 spot of dethroning the Kyle Shanahan led Niners. Now, good offense, not great defense, very young team last year. A lot, a lot of John Schneider turnover with this club. The thing is, though, if you go similarities from team construction, you got to be a little nervous at what they did with that Seahawks Super Bowl roster in 2013. It was year two for Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Bruce Irvin, and the Legion of Boom that were all on those deals that made the move. We saw them draft very well last year on the defensive side.

A couple of key lockdown skill position players still have some questions at offensive line. I love the Jackson Smith and the Jigba draft pick. He did get hurt. He does have to have wrist surgery, I believe. That's not ideal. But thankfully with Lockett and Metcalf, I mean, this wide receiver room with Kenneth Walker

almost stole the Garrow Wilson offensive rookie of the year award is something to at least pay attention to. This is a team that, again, has excellent inside the locker room culture. they are very well coached. I love Pete Carroll's enthusiasm. Guys going Chris Berman throwing, dropping bad, two minute drill passing.

He's in his 60s. I think he might even be in his 70s. Pete Carroll knows how to coach his team. I do like that Bobby Wage is back on the club. They're going to have to look at leadership. Now, does Gino Smith take the leap? That's really what it all comes down to. And believe it or not, he did have the number one deep ball accuracy last year in the NFL.

That's balls of over 20 yards. Gino Smith had the number one deep ball accurate. It was the number one deep ball accurate thrower. So if they can do a little bit what they did last year, but better, they were a top 10 offense in points per game. They were on the top 13 side of gaining yards. But the defense gave up 28th in yards and 25th in opponents points per game. They have to get better on the defensive side of the ball.

They are absolutely going over eight and a half wins, though. I do believe in Gino. I don't think he's going anywhere in the playoffs, but I do think this is a team that you can pencil in over eight and a half wins, but I don't have them on the danger meter debunk and the Seahawks, the Niners, I got to respect the hierarchy here on the NFC, on the NFC West High School cafeteria board. They are the sophomores and the Niners are the seniors.

We look at the Rams, little to no danger, little to no danger, haven't seen the Rams at over under six and a half wins under McVeigh in quite some time. They had their worst point differential of minus 77 under McVeigh of any of the years. The defense has no names from the Super Bowl year except for Aaron Donald. Aaron Donald played less than a full season for the first time in four years. Look, the guy was shirtless celebrating ready to sail off into the Del Boca Vista sunset. And he was emotionally, emotionally basically told to come back. He took the bait.

He had a mediocre year by Aaron Donald standards. Matt Stafford played nine games. He was three and six. I don't know where he's at. He has had a ton of injuries in his career. He's on whole 16 right now of an 18 year career. It was a great one and done Rick Springfield, Jesse's girl, one hit wonder in Hollywood, ironically.

This team's going nowhere this year. Unfortunately, I don't have much of a reason to back to team at the sports book, I do think six and a half wins is disrespectful. Remind yourself too, unlike other clubs that stocked up from previous years, this team went chips all in a couple years back. They're still recouping draft picks. They didn't have a first round draft pick. They didn't have a first round draft pick. So for a team that has so many holes to fill in, I don't love that. I'm not on the Rams this year. And I'm going to spend maybe 45 seconds on the Arizona Cardinals. The worst run franchise in the national.

Football League, Mausel, Tove, I will not be sending you an Offie Komen. You go find it yourself. Under four and a half wins is where they're at. I could even see them hitting the under. Bottom 10 offense across the board. Second worst and points allowed. They're sending offense alignment. They're sending Isaiah Simmons.

They're just tanking. They're letting you know where they're at for the year. Don't buy low on this team. I don't even look. Maybe Joshua Dobbs can go out and when they did his trade for him, go out and win a little bit more than a Colt McCoy could. I just, I look at this team and I got nothing positive to say except where the hell is the Larry Fitzgerald leadership from one this team used to have.

This team got to a Super Bowl, not too long ago. I just, I don't get it. I really don't get it. Tyler Murray got hurt. He's not gone. So tons to worry about with them. They're a one. They're doing nothing on the danger meter this year.

We move on to the NFC South. And I'm going to go a little bit short here because I did talk this team out this week on the volume sports YouTube channel. Go check it out. It's the NFC South. And I'll start out in order of where I do believe this division goes. And the New Orleans Saints, who I'm not going to start out with because we can. got to go with who won last year. The box, they are unfortunately on a seven to ten. I'm going to put them at a 10. I'm going to put them in a 10. They are going to not win this division. They may go

from first to worst. They're sitting at six and a half wins over under. It's juiced on the under in the first season in the post Tommy Tampa era. Baker Mayfield comes in. Can he provide progressive insurance? I don't know. They got to play the NFC North and the AFC.F. South. That's the biggest positive takeaway that they get one easy AFC division. It's a new quarterback room left, which is gone. They were 25th last year. 25th in points. Tom Brady's box were 8 and 9 and 18 points per game offense. Worse rushing offense. That's the thing with Baker. You don't have infrastructure like you had in Cleveland with the good offensive line,

hunt and chub to just weather the storm. If it's all on Baker, they're cooked. I do consider him relatively accurate. They did have a sixth in the passing offense team. They got studs on the offense as far as receiver weapons. Godwin and Evans are still in the top 10 tandem that conversation. Certainly, defense was solid, but I just don't think this team, again, in a turnover year, in a turnover division as someone you want to hang your hat on, could be Kyle Trask by the time you're breaking Thanksgiving with your family.

The number one challenge, and it's absolutely a team that's going to swoop, is the New Orleans Saints people. ladies and gentlemen, over nine and a half wins, take out the Aaron Judge Gaville, hammer this. Winning the division, by the way, at an interesting plus 1.30 at the moment on Fanduil Pendant, where you go to bet is a absolute must fire. Let's not forget who Derek Carr is. Let's not forget that this dude, objects and mirror are not as they appear. This was a guy that had no foundation.

He was in a toxic relationship, ironically in Las Vegas, and he was playing on an Oakland A's infield half his career. This dude almost, when he went for over 300 yards in a wildcard game against the Bengals when they're just getting their steam going, won a playoff game. He's 63 and 79 as a starter, 91 career QBR. This dude is not chump change, all right? He's a gunslinger. I fancy him a relatively decent leader.

He's got passion. He's married to the game and remind yourself. How many years like last year did the Raiders defense give up more than the Raiders' offense had to give up? This Saints D is night and day. It's a top nine defense from last year. So they play, again, the AFC South. Last year, they had three quarterbacks, the Red Rocket, James Winston, Taysam Hill. Now they got stability.

They got a pro bowler, pro bowler. and they have a, I would say, ton of interesting pieces on this club. Camaro's going to get right after his suspension. If Michael Thomas can stay healthy, is a decent one, two with a lave. You look at the defense's side to Mario Davis, Cam Jordan, Marshawn Latimore.

This team has the best roster, in my opinion, in this division. I have to put this Saints team in the danger meter as a absolutely top 7 to 10. I'm going to give them an 8 that they're going to swoop this division at plus money. And real quick on the other two clubs, look, my boss, Sean is very high on the Falcons. I can't see it. They got skunked trolled at the beer pong table yesterday against the Steelers in the preseason.

Everyone says the preseason means nothing. 24 nothing can't be nothing. I know it was a starter's first of the backups in the first quarter, have anybody that loses by 24 points, at least remember. I'm not saying it's something. I'm not saying it's nothing. This team was unwatchable on defense. Unwatchable.

Second worst in the league on third down. Last in the league in sacks. Bottom 10 in turnovers. So Ritter's going to come in for Mario to do a lot of the same. He's going to play game managing football. He's going to run the football. Now they got Bejohn Robinson. Look, top three rushing offense.

I think this team is going to win eight games. But as far as a nine and eight clubs, this year with Ritter. No chance, Cincinnati Bearcat. No chance. Little to no danger. They make a splash in the South. I got to put them.

I got to put them at a three. I do not believe in this Atlanta Falcons defense. And you have to have a serviceable defense. And I'm looking at this, at last but not least, it's Carolina Panthers team. They too are in little to no danger. I'll put them out of three.

They may go eight and nine as well. They're over under seven and a half. Last in time of possession last year. did a lot not great. Did a lot not great last year. Bryce Young comes in and Bryce Young is going to game manage, but they may need him to play make. And I'm not sure what version they're going to get out the gate.

New pieces all over the board. Beeline Hayden Hurst, Miles Sanders. Of course, Frank Wright comes in. Anytime that happens, you're in a rebuilding turnover year. You got to give them a mulligan this season to try to see how it goes. Matt Ruhl really put him in a pinch, 28th and passing offense. and, you know, three players started five and more games at quarterback as well.

No quarterback consistency, no offense or rhythm last year. Now, their defense was okay, but really not great. This is not a top 10 defense. So in no danger, I do think they could get eight wins. I think they finish right there at the bottom of the division next to the boxes. We get into the NFC North to wrap up the show, the Minnesota Vikings, who won the division. with a negative point differential at 13 and 4 are honestly, it is, it's almost like it took Aaron Rogers, Iowaska to watch the Vikings last year. I don't, I don't understand what

happened on the dumb luck side. What's crazy that Paul told me is two years back, it was a complete different outcome, but they were in just as many close games. This team had eight, this team has had eight wins or fewer in three of five Kirk Cousin seasons. And this is not on Kirk Cousins. This is me not coming down on a guy who voluntarily tucks in his shirt on a Saturday. I like the guy. Great dad, great father,

great husband, brother, great guy, quarterback on Netflix. If you don't like Kirk Cousins, I might not like you. But the reality is they're not giving them anything on defense. I mean,

your eighth and points for 16 yards per game on offense and your 30th and 31st in those same categories on defense. I mean, how much are you going to have to get in shooting? outs and win 34-31, it's exhausting, just talking about. But the reality is Dalvin Cook's gone. Third, all-time leading rusher, fourth in team history and rushing touchdowns. Not saying Alexander Madison is not going to be a decent filling.

You also don't have feeling. I like Jordan Addison. I actually consider that an upgrade. I think this team is in very, very grave danger of giving up the division. I just don't see this club with the defense they have doing what they did again last year. I mean, only two games in double digits on the win category. That's a cause for concern. 13 and 4 with minus 3 in the point differential department.

I think they're in 8. Now, I did say it on the NFC North episode. I think they're still the team to beat in the division if you're not being emotional about it. You still have to give Kirk Cousins the best quarterback in the division award. You still have to say they're the best offense in the division. But this is a league where unless you have Patrick Mahomes, you can't get away with no defense. And I just don't know where I'm at with this Minnesota Vikings defense. I'm looking at the top challenger here.

And it might sound like I'm drinking a Frank Sinatra Chicago song type beverage that does have alcohol in it because I'm all over the Chicago Bears. I mentioned at the top of the gate, over one team a year in the last two decades has gone from worse to first. This is my team going from worse to first. And they're sitting on Fandu, on draftings, everywhere. You can get them over four to one. I'm seeing plus 430, 100 down to win 4.30, 5.30 total back. There were loss in points allowed. It made the Chicago Bears decorated historic defense now coming in this year.

I'm coming in with the, I don't know if you heard that whistle there, but this is. You're coming in with a challenge flag. This is a challenge flag. This is a challenge flag right here. All right, all right. You have the floor. Let's hear it. And you know what? I have to say you were having a great, flawless show, I might say. Sensible, thought out, statistically based. Really enjoyed it. And I thought you'd nailed the Vikings, actually perfectly.

My problem here is that you have Chicago over Detroit as the biggest challenger. So I like to hear out your thought on the bears here, but it's going to take a lot to convince me. I mean, this team lost 10 straight games last year. So you're going to have to convince me why the Bears are with the lines. Please take the stand, producer Paul. Look, they are the exact opposite of what the Vikings were. This is my thing. They lost eight games, eight games by one school, including six divisional games.

With, I was just saying the statistically worst franchise history bears defense. And you look at what they got. I mean, they didn't get one or two guys. Tremaine Edmonds, DeMarcus Walker, T.J. Edwards. This team literally had a rookie at safety leading the SAC department. They couldn't be much worse. They get a top 10 draft pick and a tackle.

DJ Moore, Chase Claypool. Let's remind ourselves that Mooney was the one last year coming in the season. But top three rushes. offense. And yes, down the stretch on paper looks terrible, the L's. But Justin Fields, to his credit, who was sacked the most times in the league tied with Russell Wilson at 55, is not going to be touched like that and bank up like that. And also what he did down the stretch, Paul, in the last nine games of the bear season, we had six turnovers. And 13 tugs passing, seven rushing, 20 tug, six mistakes in the last nine games. That's on the defense.

defense because Justin Fields doing that to me is enough offense to win games. And I know it is a league that is a game of inches. I know it's a league that is you lose on a play. You lose on one turnover. But eight games by one score, I mean, you don't think the pendulum swings back a little bit the other way. And the town is buzzing. And this is one of those four or five cities where the previous sports.

help or hurt the town for the next sport. And the Chicago Cubs, I'm telling you right now, I'm going to win the NL Central, go to playoffs, make some noise, and they weren't expected to do anything on a rebuilding year. Shout out Danzby Swanson and Cody Bellinger. This Bears team, to me, did everything you could have done

to at least put them in a position to go over seven and a half wins. But they have Justin Fields, who's a certified playmaker. I mean, did you see some of those plays last year on foot and extending plays? Here's the thing, Paul. I'm in keeper leagues in fantasy. This dude was 16th round off the board. I'm seeing him go as the fourth quarterback this year.

The fourth. So I'm high on it. I think this Bears team did all they can do to put a better product on the field. And I hope that that swings the pendulum at least gives them a nine and eight season, the crazy thing about this division is I think nine wins could win it. I really do. They are the top challenger. I don't know where Ed Hockley has this challenge flag going. But I mean, I just, I believe in this Bears Club. I know you don't like them. You don't like anybody in this division. It's like it's, it's, it's like. That's a great point. That's a great point.

I don't like anyone. I just, I don't, I don't know that I want a back alliance team that hadn't won 10 games. and damn near a decade. And I'm looking at them. And, you know, two seasons with 10 plus wins in the 21st century, everyone's high on golf. Listen, I met the guy randomly. Nice, dude. Unbelievable comeback story from being completely dog.

I mean, most dudes probably would have crumbled after they leave a team that goes and wins the Super Bowl the next year. He doesn't take it personally. All he does is go out and do what he can. I think he is not the problem. This defense is horrible. The defense has been a bottom five defense in yards given up in four straight years. I mean, the only thing they've even gotten right is Hutchinson on the defense aside, even Okuda, not even on a team anymore.

And then it cannot understate, but D'Andre Swift, who to me is better than Jemir Gibbs and Jamal Williams, who led the league in touchdowns last year, is now in New Orleans. I mean, you get rid of the second running back taking in the 2020 draft. You get rid of the rushing touchdown leader last year and you have an unwatchable defense. I mean, are we really feeling great about the Detroit Lions? Look, Dan Campbell is an incredible leader, but it's still a dysfunctional franchise that has a lot of hoops to jump through. I just, I cannot back a team that has to get in shootouts to win games. I can't do it. I think this Lions team goes nine and eight.

I get the under on wins. I got on third in the division. Am I out of my mind for that? No, you're not out of your mind. I do think you're underrating their defense, which really did come on at the end of last season and added a lot of peace. They got two new corners. Brian Branch and C.J. Gardner Johnson, our new safety.

It's the first round Jack Campbell linebacker. It's a different lion's defense. I think it's probably the best defense out of the three team, Vikings, Bears, and Lions. That is crazy. I don't know why you don't believe in this bear's defense, my friend. What is there to believe in? The reality is they got a whole almost damn near new defense.

They got a great lineback. You get a Vrable player in DeMarcus Walker. You get a Shaw McDermott player in Tremaine Edmins. You have, I like the corner they dropped. They still have Eddie Jackson and Jaquan Brisker. They have a whole new defense. I got in Gokwe from Indy, T.J. Edwards from Philly. I'm going to talk about four defenders.

And I'm not even talking about Billings or Justin Jones from the AFC West. Just those four guys prior to those two are all from quality clubs with great defenses. So I just, I don't know how we can understate that. And I just believe in Justin Fields, man. I mean, it's an eyeball test that he passes. I just think that this guy last year had nothing on his side. And you can't, you just can't understate when a team invests in you, confidence-wise, and goes out and spends the money, they knew what they needed to do and they did it. I mean, we really think CJ Gardner Johnson's turning around this lion's defense.

Here's what I'll tell you. I mean, there's a reason why Philly let him go. Here's what I'll tell you. I think you bring up a great point that at plus 430, the bears are not a horrendous bet. And really anyone in this division, everyone's plus money right now. So whoever you like, I have no problem with you finding a way to defend them. Even Jordan loves looked good in the preseason. But ultimately for me, it comes down to Vikings, Lions, Bears.

None of the defenses are that good. I told you I prefer Detroit's over the overall of them. But when they're that close, I trust Kurt Cousins and the Vikings offense more than I trust Jared Goff's offense, more than I trust Justin Fields, as great a runner as he is. I still need to see it with the arm. So at plus 260, I think the Vikings are actually the best value on the board there. Well, I completely agree. And I did say it in our NFC North episode a few weeks back. If I wasn't going for broke in this division, which I clearly am, I would, I would non-emotionally bet on the Vikings. The Vikings have the bet. I mean, again, I think Justin Fields,

when it's all said and done will be better than Kirk Cousins, but that could be an awful, awful take in two, three seasons if he's a backup. But I mean, look at the line, back to the lines. They were plus seven in the turnover differential department. That was the fourth best in the league. That's incredibly impressive. I'm curious to see how well Jared Goff can take care of the football. I mean, I don't know how you don't feel like that running game is going to be exactly as it was last year.

I know they have a rock solid offensive line. But I mean, look at Goff's career, man. That was the career low in interceptions last year. He's gone double digits in interceptions three years. So that's the season to me. Again, if you're playing a sports psychologist here, his former team wins the Super Bowl. You're never going to get a more dialed in Jared Gough

than the quarterback who was. the number one overall draft pick for a team. They gave up on him right when they were building some momentum. They go out, they get an older quarterback. They win. He comes back. He goes 29 tug, seven picks, 99 QBR, over 4,400 yards. I mean, that's not something he's done only the third time in his career.

So I know he's still young. I just, I mean, it's just crazy to me that this team with a new backfield and a really serviceable defense at best is somebody that you're high on here. I mean, do you think the Lions make the playoffs? I do. I actually do think. Oh, my God. Jared Goff, he had a great year.

Now, that is true. The biggest question mark, really for all the NFC North, except Kirk Cousins, is what happens at the quarterback position. Would it shock me if Goff regressed to, you know, how he was at the end of his time in L.A.? Not at all. But I look at Detroit and I see Montgomery. like him is a running back. Jamir Gibbs,

great compliment with Montgomery. I'm on Ross St. Brown. Jameson Williams will be back. There's a lot of weapons on that team for Jared Goff to throw to. I like what they're doing. For the first time in my life,

I like what they're doing in Detroit. I mean, I'm not, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I know. It is. It's, it's pretty wild.

It's pretty wild that it's coming out of anybody's mouth. I mean, the lions, again, I guess I will be sorely wrong because, It's almost betting fatigue or I don't know what you would chalk it up as with them. But they've been so bad, so dysfunctional for so long.

But Jared Goff is a perfect weather of the storm guy because he's not a get too high and he's not a get too low guy. I just, the things that need to happen again is winning the turnover battle and running the ball very well. And maybe I'm wrong that that David Montgomery is going to be a decent Jamal Williams and Jamir Gibbs is going to play the swift role. I mean, I could be sorely mistaken. I just, I can't wrap my arms around the Detroit Lions right now.

I mean, and they were Jekyll and high. I mean, what if they have the start they had again last year? Very possible. Everyone's going to be furious if they bet on the lions and they have a bad start. I just, I can't do it. And then real quick on the Packers and I'll talk it out with you. I mean, this Packers team, I, I'm nervous. I'm going to be very wrong.

I'm nervous. you know, on the complete different sentiment of everything we've said, lack of infrastructure, lack of continuity in the Lions franchise in the last two decades, the Packers have been the exact difference in that same category. I mean, they're just, they haven't missed a quarterback in my entire life. I came into this world with Brett Farb and I watched Aaron Rogers. And now it's Jordan Love. I mean, Jordan Love, granted it's preseason, looks like he's playing within his

means. It kind of looks like a little bit of Jared Gough in that early part of his career where he's just doing PA rollouts, doing checkdowns, hitting curls, hitting humble down and outs, down and, you know, nothing, nothing too far to stretch the field. And yes, you could call it babysitting. But, I mean, you don't have an insanely decorated wide receiver and tight end room. The best part of their offense to me is A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones. but I can't sit here and bet on this Packers team.

I think they're in little to no danger of taking this division by any means. I got them at a three. I mean, there are seven and a half wins. I mean, this whole division could end up being nine and eight, eight and nine beating up on each other. I mean, the defense was good last year as far as middle of the pack. But I mean,

are they going to be to me off their worst home record in their last five years in Green Bay, what they should be at home. And then when they go on the road, how will they be battle tested? I don't know, man. I'm not really high on the Packers this year. But, you know, as we know, this league shocks you every time we think we have the Hollywood script. We don't.

I mean, where are you out on Jordan? Well, I have to take the stance that he's going to flop because I can't stand to see another Hall of Fame quarterback in Wisconsin. Of course, I don't want to root. against anybody, but I do look at this situation and say, I don't believe in the weapons too much. I like Christian Watson, but I'm not, I'm not sold on anyone else in Green Bay at the moment. One thing that's concerning me is the priest, the way he's looked on a few plays in the preseason. You see, six foot four.

He's a big guy. He can throw it all over the place, different arm angles. So that's concerning to me, but I mean, on the up side of things. Yeah. Yeah, I think on the other side of things. He could, he could, right, right, right. Like, he could actually come out. Yeah, he could come out, but we have to remember it's preseason.

So that's why I'm not, that's why I'm not anywhere. Yeah, I mean, look, A, and I also looked it up too before a show, 4-740. I mean, let's not act like this dude can't move the rock on the ground with his legs. No, he's got all the attributes. It's, that's the concerning part. And I don't like seeing it come together at times this preseason. But I'm not, it's the best defense probably in the division. And it's not, and it's an average, if not.

worse than average defense. So this team as a whole, I can't get behind them right now. I'm not willing to let myself believe in Jordan Love. Now on a quick real sleeper note, this dude Reed, who apparently has 4-4-esque speed seems to be someone that could be an interesting sleeper

in the fantasy world. I do like this dude Reed. Looks decent. And, you know, love's going to, These quarterbacks that are new are always going to find one guy they really like. I just want to mention that. I got a weird feeling this dude,

Reed may end up being the second most productive wide receiver on the team this year. But we'll see, man. I mean, new pieces in Green Bay. I think the NFC North may be one of the most compelling divisions in the NFL and, you know, a rich decorated history of all four clubs. I mean, you got to love. Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago all battling. I mean, when's the last time, Paul,

as we work our way out of here, that all four teams could win the division. I mean, I know everyone thinks they can win the division every year in the NFC North. But I mean, in all actuality, I mean, there's not really a luck. Yeah, no, not in my lifetime. I was born in 1998. And it's probably pretty far when you had a chance for everyone to come in and win. If you were so if you were to take if you so if you will wrap on this you were to take two if you take a hundred a hundred dollars and put 50 bucks on two teams in the NFC north to win the division.

You tell me you're going Vikings and Lions. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. I get the value at the bears of plus 430, but the Vikings a plus two six is probably the best bet you can make for division winners. All right. All right. Where are you on the Viking schedule?

Do you feel like this is a, I mean, a normal first place schedule level of difficulty? It's difficult. There's some difficult games in there, but I don't think there's enough difference between the other teams to warrant concern. All right. All right. Well, hey, that's the NFC episode. The challenge flag has been implemented and the challenge. Yes. I love it.

I love it. Hey, we need you all things. Our NFC, if there are, if there is a beat. Beat reporter out there in the NFC North on the pod. We need you to come in on around the globe and give a weekly report for us. Yeah, after Jordan Love Throws for six touchdowns in week one. I love it. Hey, well, I appreciate everyone.

Listen. Don't forget to subscribe, rate review, all things, volume, sports, money line, Monaco, across all social for Paul for myself. You have yourself a wonderful weekend. Don't forget on your way out. To hug your mothers. We'll see you next.