The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Early Super Bowl Bets: Chiefs-Eagles, Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts

Episode Date: February 4, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting insight and early best bets for Super Bowl LVII, featuring the Philadelphia Eagles against the Kansas City Chiefs. Alex discusses how injuries to Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and other key players could have an effect on the game. Plus, Alex recaps his picks from the Conference Championship playoff round, as Jalen Hurts and the Eagles defeated the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs defeated Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the AFC Championship. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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NHL, college basketball, and so many other sports to bet on. Download the Fandu app today and start making every moment more during Super Bowl 57. And welcome in to another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco. Happy February the month of love, the month of Super Bowls, the month that we look to end an unbelievable playoff run. If you've been rocking with me, Money Line, Monaco. We've been live on Amazon Amp. Make sure to check me out there.

Mondays, Tuesdays, noon Eastern. We have been on the money on the Volume Sports Podcast Network. Look, just to briefly recap how we did so you know who you're listening to because Volume Sports YouTube. channel absolutely cooks. Sometimes you see me. Sometimes you don't. We go against the spread. Three and three in the wild car round. Got emotional with Tommy Tampa. Big shout out to the goat headed down to Del Boca Vista phase four to play some ping pong and eat dinner at 4.30. I'm very excited for him. But we go five and one straight up that wild car weekend, three and three against

the spread. Only game we got wrong. That first round was the Bucks, money line and ATS. Then we go divisional round. Where I was absolutely Danny die. Three and one against the spread. Three and one straight up. Only game I got wrong there against the spread. I took the giants over the Eagles. I caught that fat L. I'm a New York host. What do you want for me? And then I took the Bengals with the points over the bills, but I thought the bills would beat the Bengals. And then we got to last week. Two and oh against the spread and two and no straight up. And again, under three points for both of these when they close.

So you're going to go against the spread two and oh. You're going to go two and oh straight up. But I told you all week. We went viral on TikTok three reasons why the SF Niners would not beat the Philadelphia Eagles. And ladies and gentlemen, It is more than a week away from the big game in Arizona. But I think I, and I'm not going to tell you my exact pick on this pod,

but you're going to hear me speak with ethos, pathos, logos, conviction on who I am strongly considering. And as we dive in here, please don't forget to subscribe, rate review, all things, volume, sports podcast. If you're feeling extra generous, please. Any five stars, shoutouts, I won you money. I love your energy. I hate your picks. I hate your energy. I love your picks.

Any of that on the Scantron, we would appreciate. But let's get in to the Super Bowl. And I imagine you're wondering the history of the Super Bowl. And here is the line at the moment. We've already seen line movement throughout the opening. on Sunday night after the conference championship games. Now, the Vegas cappers, the ones that set the spread, laid the chiefs as favorites.

I was hearing and seeing as high as minus two and a half, the line flipped on a Danny dime. On a dime. The Eagles become the favorites Sunday night. They have stayed the favorites. We've seen them on Fandul, Philly, all the way up to minus two, they are chilling.

Larry David Lamped at minus one and a half and minus 118 on the money line. If you're talking minus 110 at minus one half and minus 118, take the money line. You know my policy. One and a half point spreads.

Just lay the extra cents on the dollar. Unless you're betting 50 racks, take the money line if you're going with the humble favorite. Here is the history of favorites in this Super Bowl. Through the first 56, we're on 57 this year. The NFC has a humble advantage, 2927. But more evidently, more evidently, and more importantly, favorites, favorites,

ladies and gentlemen, which is the Philadelphia Eagles, 37 and 18 straight up in the Super Bowl. 37 and 18 and 29, 22, and 2 against the spread. Now, we remember Philly was in this spot, 2017. I spoke on it, big reason why I love them at home. They protect home field like gentlemen. They're the last one seat in the NFC to be representing the conference in the Super Bowl. Well, guess what? this Philadelphia team who are favorites

were actually four and a half point underdogs against Tommy Brady and the Patriots in that 2017 season. This was right before who would have thunk it. Nick Foles gets a rocky statue in the city of Philly. The brotherly love city we all enjoy in the world of sports. Now, Andy Reid, there's a couple of narratives here, is going against his former team. Everyone's talking Kelsey Brothers Super Bowl.

That is incredible. I got two younger brothers. What an honor and a pleasure would be to dance against them on the highest stage. But Andy Reid against his old team is, I think equally as fascinating. It's not like Kelsey and Kelsey are tight end and D-end. We're center and tight end. This is offense for offense. Their mom already jokingly said.

she's rooting for offense. So the narrative of Andy Reid versus old team that once doubted, Howie Roseman, once upon a potential town time, you got to love that narrative. Now, Andy Reid, just so you know, Big Red, three and up, three and oh against his old team. And just for what it's worth, the last time they danced, was last season.

And the Chiefs won 40 to 30. Patrick Mahomes had five touchdowns. Jaylen Hurts had over 400 total yards and two tugs, but Patrick Mahomes had five touchdowns against this Eagles team. Now, a lot has changed. A lot has changed. You can make the case what Philly did in the offseason, the moves, the James Bradbury's, the AJ Browns,

the championship type pieces, bringing in pieces in the middle of the season, then the Domiconsu, this front line is disgusting. And this is the narrative. If you've listened to me on Amazon Amt this week, it's best player versus best team. And it's fascinating because I'm in the sports betting world,

but I watch sports radio. I listen to sports broadcasting TV shows all day, every channel, you name it, I watch it. Sometimes I Costco sample it. Sometimes I got the TV. hurt on all morning. The point is the narrative is Patrick Mahomes and his heroic performance on the ankle is now

unstoppable and equally on the same narrative and pay attention to it because it sways betters. It sways even lying in Vegas. Call me crazy. Patrick Mahomes has a press conference hobbles off two steps this time. all the sudden the line moves. You don't think press conferences, sports radio,

first takes of the world don't have a little bit of influence. I'm not saying they have the utmost influence. Vegas is listening to everybody. And what they know and what you have to consider is that the other narrative of this Philly team is that they've played nobody.

They've played nobody. And look, I'm not going to deny second easiest strength of schedule, but let's stop calling the Chiefs Road here along and winding, unbelievable yellow brick road to get to the Wizard of Oz in Arizona. Ninth easiest strength of schedule.

And they won their division. You're supposed to get a first place strength of schedule that is difficult and not in the top 10, but this is the NFL for you. Now, the sports radio narrative, it will get you funky

and twisted. Perfect example. Joe Burroughs down three offense alignment against the bills. He's going to get smothered. Da-da-da-da-da-da-da. What have? Do your research. Joe Burrow has a fast,

top three, fastest release. Snap to ball to release. He's up there with Brady as the fastest in the league to get the ball out of his arm. No one's talking about that narrative against the chiefs. It's the ankle. It's the ankle. Patrick Mahomes is hurt.

You're talking to a guy that was on the Bengals with the points and then faded the Bengals the following the week because of the sports narrative that was so evident. So then all the sudden, Joey Burrell still got three offensive line. out and no one's preaching it? I'm saying all this because the storylines here are that Philly has played nobody.

And I'm telling you right now, you beat a team 387 and 317. I don't care if it's a team that shouldn't have been there like everyone wants to say the Giants or a team with a rookie

quarterback that got injured. on the second series. You say what you got to say. A W is a W, which is a W in the NFL and in the world of bed. And I am so fired up to be sitting here as a California kid

leaning, leaning towards the better roster than the better team. Let's get deeper with it. Now, everyone is enamored by Patrick Mahomes, gutty performance, unbelievable performance. Number 15 is already the greatest of all time, not named Tom Brady.

Whatever you want to say, whatever you want to hear. Here's the scary thing in this game. It's a team game. And he may be the best player on the field, the best player on the court, LeBron James, Michael Jordan, in this game. But you need help in this game to win.

And did we see, and I was on the chiefs, And I was nervous. You could have gotten the Bengals up to nine and a half at one point in that game down 13.3 early. But I wasn't nervous in the first half when the Chiefs were up. I was nervous in the late third quarter early fourth. Mahomes Bobbles a snap. If that would have been anyone else, Twitter would have went ballistic.

And they scored three points in the fourth quarter, 10 points in the second half. Chance to bury the Bengals. They don't. you watched Juju go out in that game you watch Kadarius Tony play four snaps run three routes and not come back

and McColl Harmon was quoted after with a hurt pelvis reagravating that injury he hopes to go in a week and a half on Super Bowl Sunday but I'm telling you right now juju played 31 in the 69 offensive snaps

Tony played four McCill Harmon McCall Harmon was an a relevant afterthought. The player prop conclusion of this is hammer MVS all things receiving. Marquez Valdez Scantling. Here's a scary thing though, just from a betting perspective.

So he feasted, right? He went for six and over 115. He hadn't had a hundred yard receiving outing all but one time the entire Costco sample size of this year. What I'm getting at is this is a top three defense. I don't know how you don't make the case top two. They're right there with the Niners. And what they did to the Niners, how are you not calling this the best team in the NFL right now?

And what they do defensively is terrifying. Hassan Reddick, who has been consistently slept on all year, all year. And congratulations NFL. you played yourself because Hassad Reddick got no shoutouts, no accolades this year, no nothing. It was all Nick Bosa who got just shut out. Shut out.

All game by Lane Johns. You got to love it. But looking at what Reddick did, getting around the corner. And again, this is Jordan Davis. This is Fletcher Cox. This is Brandon Graham. This is your Philly defensive front.

You can't double team any of these guys. Someone like Reddick's going to get around the corner and end your quarterback season like he did on Sunday. But this Philly team who gives up 170-9 on the year in passing is going to sit there and go, okay, three wide receivers banged up for the chiefs, beat us on the ground or don't beat us. And here's the scary thing about Casey's running game. And they did run the ball very well against the Jaguars. Didn't run the ball at all.

Last week didn't really need to. Although how do you say that in the height and the magnitude of a game like this? You have to run the ball. But Pacheco, who's a phenomenal value pick, rookie, 10 for 26 last week, 2.6? No hundred yard rushing outing for the man that took Tyree Kills number. Since he went against the LA Chargers in November, by the way, who give up 165 on the ground?

Yeah, I memorized stats, baby. I know the Chargers give up 165 on the ground. It has to be stated. Banged up. AC offense. Travis Kelsey had a back injury going into that game against the Bengals. All of a sudden, Patrick Mahomes' ankles, perfect? Is it perfect?

All of a sudden, he's healed? Patrick Mahomes was hobbling. At times in that game, when he had to throw off his, it's his plant foot, by the way. It's his plant foot. More important than his front foot. But limited weapons, or at least banged up weapons is what I want you to put in your head,

knowing KC right now. And this is fascinating too. Vegas got the line wrong. How often does Vegas literally, in the Super Bowl. Get the favorite wrong. They laid two and a half on KC.

There's somebody out there that is already middling this at KC plus two and a half and Philly minus two and a half. I mean, that won't happen. I don't see a middle happening in the Super Bowl under three. But needless to say, you don't see this often.

So it's just to show you and you saw it last week too. What happened with the Bengals and the Chiefs line? They got it wrong. They hung a bad number. The Sharps immediately hammered it, corrected it, and here we are. Now, let's talk about this Eagle's offense for a second. If you're worried about Hertz's arm, his shoulder.

This is a team. I'm going to say at its core is egoless. Jalen Hertz doesn't care how he gets it done. The son of a coach. This man's story got overshadowed by Brock Purdy last week. This man had to transfer in college just to get the proper look. Then he goes to Philly and he sends Carson top two overall traffic went out of the city. Do you know how hard it is to play in that environment?

those fans and deliver. Jalen Hertz is doing it effortlessly. You don't believe me? They're 16 and 1 this year with him under sent. He goes 15 for 25. Doesn't throw a touchdown last week. Doesn't batten up. That should scare.

You get rushing touchdowns from Boston Scott, two from Sanders, one from Hertz, gain well leads in rushing. And Devante Smith and A.J. Brown go for 36 yards and 28 yards. And you spent a team 31 7. You should be sleeping with one eye open. Look, if you're considering best player over best team, know this. Know this.

Their offenses are almost equal from a statistical standpoint. But the defense, there is serious discrepancy. Opponents' points per game. Away. Philly is 11th. KC is 22nd. Opponents red zone touchdown scoring percentage. Philly is 11th best at stopping red zone touchdown production.

KC is 30th in that category. Oh, nice little nugget if you stayed with me to the end of the program. Away from home. Kansas City gives up 23.8 points per game. Dilley is second in the league in offense away and averages more yards per play on offense away than they do at home. If both offenses average around 27.8 and that includes the playoffs, it's case he got them by a little bit in the regular season.

But one defense is number one in multiple categories. we're talking picks. We're talking pasty. The best thing they do is the best thing that the chiefs do. Move the ball with Mahomes. I'm not saying my home is going to get shot down. Mahomes in an NBA reference is going to get his. He's going to put up his numbers.

Let him throw for 3.20. Just don't let him throw for four touchdowns. And play your game, Philly. This game is going to come down to the trench and Jalen Hertz hasn't had his jersey touched since the playoffs started. Dude, we're talking about Jason Kelsey and Lane Johnson as Hall of Fame linemen. This line is stupid. It's silly.

Chris Jones got his first two playoffs sacks last week. They knocked down Burrow 12 times. subtract 11 of those for Jalen Hertz on Super Bowl Sunday. Early lean Philly at minus 118 on the money line. I don't know how you don't feel the same. We'll sleep on it. Paspers style, but I'll be back next week with probably more Philly conviction

and a lot of props to Nibble on. All right. It's the 2023 Super Bowl. And this year, The only app you need at your Super Bowl party is Fandul America's number one sportsbook. Download Fandul and use promo code Monaco so you can bet Super Bowl 57 with a no sweat first bet. You'll get up to $3,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win. Fandual lets you bet on everything from the money line to point spreads to who will score a touchdown.

And again, you know where I'm at early. We'll sleep on it. But I'm leaning chiefs. Ticketo! And I'm going fly eagles fly. Philly all day. If I had to go a no sweat on Fandul.

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All right. For Amazon AMP, for Volume Sports YouTube channel for the money line Monaco, humble army out there. We appreciate you. We're on the Eagles and it's going to be a lot to sway me off of them. Fly Eagles fly early thoughts, early.

Super Bowl 57 predictions. Don't forget to hug your mothers. We'll see you next week. Ta-ta real smooth. The volume.