The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Fantasy Football 2023 Strategy: RB value fading? When to draft top tier QBs

Episode Date: August 2, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his best fantasy football strategies ahead of 2023 draft season. Is it time to value star wide receivers over running backs? How early should the NFL’s best quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts be drafted? #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is a very important fantasy football episode. Moneyline, Monaco, live on the ones and twos. All right, I want to talk a little overall strategy in this sport of fantasy football. Again, this is a betting pod. Fantasy is really the brother, not even the cousin. We're in the same minivan on the way to take down Terry Benedict in Vegas, Danny Ocean, Brad Pitt and the boys

we're trying to beat the books. And in the fantasy world, there is no better feeling. Call it what you will. In adult world that we all live in, then beating your friends in a friendly competition. And that's what I'm here to talk out. You're in your friend leagues.

Could be your fraternity. Could be a childhood group. Could be a college friend group. Could be your intramural kickball team for all I know. getting a little nuts and bolts, a little nugglets here and there in fantasy. And I want to preface it by saying, I am a six-time fantasy football champion. I have been playing fantasy football as long as the iPhone has been on the market. I was playing fantasy football when I was picking, I believe, a Myspace profile song.

It's been a long time in the game. I've gone from a license to an adult paying real New York. city bills, all while playing fantasy. In fact, I'm a two league guy. Now that I'm in New York, I'm a three league guy. Three leagues is a little too much. I recommend two at the most. Otherwise, you're rooting for and against players in every which way.

And that's not fun. You want to really be off book on your teams, know your players. It's the last version of a competitive athlete still showcasing really highly unnecessary. Eat those pathos. Locos in a lot of ways. But it's friendly. It's fun. And if you win a rack or two Gs at the end of the season, so be it.

So I'm going to talk out a little bit of rules that I abide by. I want to talk a little bit about value I see on the board. And this is again, the first time we're seeing, and I do have a couple of paid subscriptions that I do subscribe to that are giving me rankings, that are giving me inside information, how to build the back end of your draft, how to go in order of player skill set. I want to start out, believe it or not, with this hot take world that we live in and speaking on the fact that running backs have no value. Now, let's take a step back before we take two steps forward. The conversation happening in sports broadcasting right now about the running

back is absolutely going to, whether it's car, or subconscious, seek in, seep in, excuse me, to your fantasy football Noggin. And I'm here to tell you, objects and mirror are not as they bottom left appear if you are a driver in every state but New York. This is a absolute atrocity. As far as what I'm seeing in the broadcasting world, devaluing the running backs. I got some numbers here that are going to shock your. Noggin, you're going to have to look at the painting differently because the value of running backs in fantasy football cannot be understated.

And let's get into it. Now, what if I told you from a thousand yard rushing perspective versus a thousand yard receiving perspective and let's lump in wide receivers and tight ends to this conversation? Because the way you look at stats, tight ends don't really have their own category. They are in the same category as wide receivers. What if I were to tell you? There were nine running backs with double-digit touchdowns last year. Let me say that again, nine.

And there were only five wide receivers and tight ends with double-digit touchdowns last year. Let me rephrase it one more time. more running backs with double-digit touchdowns than wide receiver and tight ends combined. There were five, five. Want to know who they were? Devante Adams, Travis Kelsey, A.J. Brown, Stefan Diggs, and of course, George Kittle. That's two out of five lads that are tight ends. There were three men in the entire sport that got in the end.

zone at a wide receiver position, double digits. It's shocking. You start to look at the overunders on receiving yards, receiving touchdowns for these guys. Justin Jefferson is in his own tier at certain fancy football sites and rankings. Do you know what his over under is for touchdowns on the season? It's eight and a half. So I take that and I challenge you on the next notion of stats. We're talking stats only here, people.

This is a game of yards, touchdown. and stats. What if I were to tell you? There were 16, 1,000 yard running backs last season, 16, 1,000 yard rushers to 22 1,000 yard receiver and tight ends. Now we're starting to get really interesting. This is now a tip for tat situation because I'm looking at, for the first time, in,

years. Fantasy football draft projections that have Justin Jefferson going one, that have Jamar Chase going two, that have Tyreek Hill going three, and then a Christian McCaffrey starts to pop in the mix. What I'm saying is this. Let's call it a two running back, two wide receiver, one tight end, one flex league. I don't play in those. I have a two flex league. One of my leagues is three wide receivers, two running backs. Let's call it standard as it gets. Some would call a three wide receiver league standard. Some call it two.

We could call it three for this one. Three wide receivers, two running backs and a flex. One tight end. You have the ability to go two tight ends if you want. You can, of course, go three running backs if you want. I'm just laying the land to you like that statistically from last year. Because as much as we want to say, the running back doesn't have value in the wins and losses category.

I believe Ligarrett Blunt, 26, what, six, seven years back now the Eagles won with Nick Fools. That's the last thousand-yard rusher to be on a team that won a Super Bowl. That's fine and dandy. We're talking about winning fantasy football. Winning in the regular season. Let's not forget the championship is in week, if you do it right, week 16, week 17 pending, you know, now we got 18 weeks and 17, 17 games on the season.

You don't want to wrap. Any commissioner that's doing a week 18 championship needs to be vetoed out. I'm sorry. But that's the first thing I wanted to point out is as much as we're sitting here in the broadcasting world devaluing the sequins, the Jonathan Taylor's, the Josh Jacobs, who led all men in scrimmage yards last year. It's a ridiculous take to not sit and factor in when you're drafting your team. So in my humble opinion, if you are drafting one, two, or three,

three, probably advantageous to go one of those three men I just mentioned, particularly JJ and or Jamar Chase. Again, Jamar Chase is low key, a touchdown machine. Guy was banged up. So the nine touchdowns, he absolutely would have been the sixth wide receiver tight end in that little debate thing I just made about are there, are there, is there additional value in going running backs over wide receivers and tight ends earlier than you would otherwise think in lieu of what's being conversed about in the running back market right now.

Well, you look at the top five running backs from a yard standpoint last year. It's Josh Jacobs, Derek Henry, Chubb, Sequin, believe it or not, Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook in the conversation. So these guys, again, are not a dime a dozen. You're only going to get so many quality running backs that do it all. Now, it is important to know, Austin Echler has to be a first round pick in fantasy. This is a dude that was in the conversation for the most prolific past catchers in the history of the running back position. You start to look at receptions from last year.

Austin Echler is. So if you can find a non-nick Chubb like an Echler, even Josh Jacobs catches the ball. decent out of the backfield at Christian McCaffrey goes without saying these kinds of guys that are running backs and hybrid wide receivers. Debo Samuel, an interesting value play could be down the board that you could get maybe in a fourth round situation. I have a lot of players tiered up for me. But something to think about in the first round, the second round, if you're going

running back, it might be advantageous. And again, let me preface this by saying PPR, points per reception. playing in a PPR league, meaning you get half a point or a point for anyone who catches a ball in addition to the yards that they gain on a reception, that is pivotal. Assuming you play PPR like the rest of the adults, that is something to factor in. Now, the just straight running backs that don't catch the ball, there are not many. There are not many. And you start to do the tit for tat.

You start to look at, okay, 22,000 yard wide receiver tight ends in the league. league. 22, you have to sit here and make the case that there is value in the wide receiver position later down the board. Let's get to a little bit of rules now and things that I like to talk about that I want to do or not do based on the season. I think this goes without saying, get your kicker and your defense in the last two rounds. You can even make a case, and I've done this before, this is going to happen. There's going to be a guy, a girl in your fantasy league, either going to overdraft, underdraft, make an emotional purchase at a Louis Vuitton when they really should have

been shopping at Old Nate. I don't know. It happens every year like clockwork. You get out of your Yahoo, your ESPN draft, and someone's blowing up the group chat trying to trade. I'll tell you right now, I'll tell you right now, before the season starts, there is a, and no one talks about this, a ton of value in taking advantage of one of your emotional friends at the sports book when it comes to fantasy. Now, the goal is to do a two for one,

three for one trade to try to land players before the season starts in a perfect world. And again, you're not trading the players you took in the last third of the draft. All right. Nobody wants them. No one wants to sit there and go a Madden 78 and a Madden 79 for a Madden 83. get it out of your noggin that's happening. What can happen is interestingly enough, you can offer a running back, a wide receiver package for, let's say you got an eighth ranked tight end.

You're not comfortable with, you know, Dawson Knox. You want to get in the top five. You think Cole Kometto just got paid is going to have a breakout season. You can offer an RB3, a wide receiver to work your way up to get a better quality asset.

It is something to think about something I like to at least throw out. The other thing that's really an absolute rule for the thumb is don't fall in love with names. I do it all the time. I fall in love with fantasy football names. What did I do last year and I did not win last year? I did make the playoffs. I took Ezekiel Ellie. Zeke isn't on a roster this season.

How about the people that got duped and look like they don't know what they're talking about with saying, Cam Acres last season because Cam Acres, and I talked about this one I produced it before the pot, had a little bit of a playoff run. It's fascinating. That's buyer's remorse to the oomth degree. It happens like clockwork. Who are those names this season you might want to know? One of them has to be. And I'm not sleeping on them because again, I love the guy. But DeAndre Hopkins over under on receiving yards is in the 800s and is over under on touchdowns is four and a half. It's a bottom five pass attempt Tennessee offense. They run to pass.

No, they just run to run some more. That's something to factor in as well. Dalvin Cook's an interesting name. Guys, a pro bowler, decorated lad. He goes to the Jets, hypothetically speaking. You have to factor in. They got a stud rookie who's coming off in ACL in Brees Hall and those elements. So looking at the names, but really reminding yourself that these names come and go.

Don't fall in love with a name because it will sauce you. It happens every single year like clockwork. That's something I wanted to make mention. And here's another thing. New players, yes, coming as rookies to systems where there's assets already. I think Jackson Smith and the Jigba is a fascinating value play. Again, I think he's the new Tyler Lockett in town. You have a D.K. Metcalf to take the pressure off.

You got a Kenneth Walker in the backfield. I mean, this was a pass-happy Seattle on the top 12 side of passing offense, believe it or not last year. And they bring in a guy that apparently has speed and breakout potential more than Chris Olave and more than a couple of these Ohio State receivers that have come out of the draft in the last couple years. He's someone that's interesting. Another thought is this. And you look at, I talked this out as well before the call, you look at this. dual threat quarterback, and you have to factor that into your draft strategy. And I believe it was Colin talking about Warren Sharpe's breakdown, which was fascinating,

that quarterback's account for 21% of rushing touchdowns last year. In 2010, it was 10%. So two times the amount, you got quarterbacks, Jalen Hertz, Justin Fields. Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, guys that have the ability to run the rock, even Danny Dimes had career highs on rush yards, rush touchdowns that will swoop and suck the soul out of your running back like a Miles Sanders, even like a Sequin Barclay, that are just getting touchdowns stolen from them. Another thing worth mentioning, the most in NFL history for quarterbacks.

the highest amount of rushing yards accounted for for teams at 16% on a sample size of a whole NFL league. Quarterbacks ran for 16% of all rushing yards. So you start to factor in and I'm a guy that has overdrafted before taking an Aaron Rogers in a fifth round and been bitten. If you're going after guys that have the ability, like a few I just mentioned, Fields, who is a stick with it running back at the quarterback position. Same thing with Jalen Hertz. Lamar Jackson goes without saying, these kind of a guys, you have to make a case for in valuing them higher than you otherwise would at a,

at a just old school quarterback style, if you will. Yes, I think of Mahomes, a Joe Burrell still worth it in those mid rounds. But I got to be honest, if you're not going for a dual threat, quarterback, try to find more value pieces in the middle rounds on the wide receiver depth charts. And another thing I want to mention is we start to work our way out of this convoy, but also looking at value. There's a thing that we do a lot where we go, this player last year did this. They're going to do it again. But here's the thing. A perfect example. Jamal Williams led the league with 17 rushing touchdowns last year.

Do you know who the top two offensive? I actually was talking Stump the Schwab with this before. You would be shot. If I asked you trivia question, who the top five offensive lines are in the NFL, something in the weeds, the guys that play the game, the guys that bet the game, know the game is won and loss in the trenches. Now, we're talking about a stat-driven conversation, so not necessarily a wholehearted wrap your arms around take for the fantasy world.

But it is worth mentioning. Just like I talk about running backs getting the ball, excuse me, quarterbacks taking away running back touchdowns in the red zone. You look at guys like last year, Jamal Williams, second best offensive line in the league, not to mention he had a healthy D'Andre Swift for the most part,

one to bouncing with him. Both of those things, you can make a case are taken away from him this year in New Orleans. Now, New Orleans, believe it or not, still a top 10 offensive line, so not a huge drop off there. But you start to think about what the lions were versus what the Saints are. Now you got to taste some hail in the mix. Now you got an Alvin Kamar in the mix. Is Jamal Williams going to lead the league in touchdowns again?

Absolutely not. No chance, no how. Here's an interesting one to think about as well. You have a lot of rookie quarterbacks coming into the mix. who on rookie quarterback teams. Now, it almost always happens like this. One guy or two guys pop and the rest are going to fall by the wayside. You look at the Texans, Dalton Schultz coming off a career year.

We forgot about what Bobby Woods, Bobby Trees, they used to call him in LA. How you doing? Was on that team before he got banged up. There's a case where both of them aren't going to do what they've done in the past. You got a rookie quarterback. rookie quarterbacks, this is just my theory, tend to go for, if you're not a Trevor Lawrence out the gate, you're not a star studded out the gate quarterback prospect. You're a Bryce Young system probably first QB, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson,

these guys are going to probably play within a system if I had to hypothesize out the gate. That bodes more check down safety blanket tight end to me than it does wide receiver. I would stay away from those teams. Now, Adam Thielen, interesting name, goes from a Justin Jefferson to wide receiver cushion his entire career. Now he's going to a Panthers team. DJ Moore's gone, new quarterback, new system. Adam Thielen, again, back to that name example.

Could be someone you think, oh, might step up, show out. There's a world where his numbers incredibly regress because situationally, he's not in that same spot. Now, on that same roster, Miles Sanders could be someone that's actually an interesting bang for your buck. A guy that did get touchdowns taken away from him. A guy that was in a rotation backfield, as we know, these San Fran Philly type teams don't really care how they get in the end zone. They just get in the end zone, especially on the running back side of things. He's somebody now you can start to look at the painting a little bit differently with.

I do want to mention too, you know, this hot take of running backs on a value, six of the top 10 rushing. teams in the league last year made the playoffs. So teams that run the ball well, teams that have great run scheme with their offensive lines, start to look at the fantasy board and don't always fall in love with a star. There are interesting value plays. Now, I kind of want to round this segment out by talking about deep value rounds. I think you as a fantasy veteran can really separate yourself in rounds.

11, 12, 13. And I need you to really think about this because again, I do like the idea of trading middle round assets to try to get maybe a third round acquisition. Again, a two for one, three for one. That is worth it to me. But another thing to think about is who is getting on the field in week one that may or may not have been banged up last year, that may or may not be in new situations. and I'm telling you, you have, fantasy is all about jumping on the guy the week before he cooks. People are sitting on Justin Fields keepers because they have the foresight to realize this guy was going to be in fantasy. When lost, call him different conversation, a stud. You look at players.

Like, how about, how about Goliday? Kenny Goladay. We haven't seen this guy catch a football. since Maddie Stafford was in the Motor City. This is a dude making his debut with a new quarterback. Could be something of interest. He comes to mind. Even another former giant, Richie James, go look at, start to start looking and

devouring depth charts. It is not glamorous, but it is so valuable. You start to look at the chief step chart. And yes, Kelsey's the one. I'm talking about Marquez Valde Scantling, Gadarius Tony, who's banged up, and everybody else, they got Rice this rookie.

They got Richie James in the mix. Justin Watson is there. I'm telling you right now, there is someone on the Chiefs that's going to be a steal because Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL. And he's sitting there with a bunch of Madan 83s outside of Travis Kelsey, he's going to pick somebody, and I have a feeling it's not Cadarious Tony,

to mix and mingle with and trust. So getting ahead, and sometimes you have to take a chance. Sometimes you have to take a flyer, put in a bid on a Richie James, who, again, not going to be someone anyone's thinking about in rounds one through 10. You start to get to round 12, round 13. You go, do I want to get Justin Tucker? or do I want to get this potential slot wide receiver for the chiefs that could be a solidified asset? That's something I think worth mentioning.

And absolutely, when you're looking and again, there's strategy that works. You don't know anything about fantasy. You can just go off the Yahoo ESPN rankings. Take the next guy up. Take the next guy up. Matter of fact, that works a lot in rounds one through seven, one through eight. At some point, research factors in. some point, your due diligence and your instincts is an added element to your fantasy manager

acumen. And that is where you separate from good to great in the fantasy world. So again, I'm going to do more fantasy talk, but there's just, there's a lot of movement. There's a lot of smoking mirrors. And I think a lot of people are going to swing and miss early and often this season with the combination of the running back conversation, with the combination of a relatively amount of turnover here. When you start thinking about guys that were traded, guys that were signed, guys that aren't signed and newcomers coming in, a lot of turnover, to be honest, in the fantasy world. And then remind yourself, as I head out, 16,000 yard running back rushers.

16, only six less than wide receivers and tight ends combined. and running backs had more nine to five double-digit touchdowns than wide receivers and tight ends. So you sit here and you tell me running backs don't matter, you're out of your mind. This has been the money line, Monaco, Pod. Hope you got a little bit of value. Lots to talk about as we move forward in the fantasy world.

We're just getting started. It's August football's around the corner. Don't forget to hug you more. We'll see you tomorrow.