The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Live from The Breeders Cup with horse racing picks and NFL Week 9 best bets

Episode Date: November 5, 2022

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting knowledge as he gives you the best bets to make at the Breeder's Cup and NFL Week 9. Monaco is joined by Simon Hunter of The Favorites who breaks down all the NFL action and Mike Joyce of FanDuel TV helps you make smart bets at the Breeder's Cup. #Volume #Herd #ColinCowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. Football basketball season is here and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fanduel. The app is safe, secure, easy to use. Fandual always has exclusive offers. When you win, you'll get paid fast. And there's tons of ways to play. You got the spread, the money line over unders, team totals, player props, and so much more.

Jump into the action at any time during the game with live betting. You could buy multiple bets from the same game in a same game parlay. and try out the same game Parlay Plus. So use promo code Monaco and download the Fandual app today to make every moment more this football and basketball season. We are live at the Breeders Cup in Kentucky. Welcome to the sports gambling with Moneyline Monaco podcast. Alex Monaco here live on Radio Row at Keenland.

Shout out to those catching us live on AMP. And a special thanks to IHeart and TVG for Hook. us up this weekend. The Breeders Cup is here. You can bet horses with Fandual Racing official wagering partner of the Breeders Cup. Right now, new players can bet the Breeders Cup with a no sweat bet up to $100 back on your first bet for a horse to win. Plenty more here with our TVG expert, Mike Joyce, in the building, Mike. Thank you so much for coming on. Thanks for having me on. All right. So you're a professional. You have an unbelievable bio. I just want to spend a second on. So you got into the horse racing space as early as four or five years old.

Yeah, when you get to write it down on paper, you can make it sound a little bit better than it is. It wasn't like, oh, I was born into this sport. It was more like a failure to launch situation. I was never in danger of becoming a doctor. So, yeah, I just grew up at the track and I never left. So it's the only thing I've ever done. I love it. Well, your first bet it says was it four?

You got me. I threw some bar-missible money away on accident in college. You got me by a few years, but four years old, what is your first bet? You go recess with it? So, yeah. So what happened was my dad used to run Arlington Park, and they had the Arlington million there, which was my dad's idea, and it was the first million-dollar thoroughbred race. So we would spend the weekend, and I was the baby of the family at the track and in the

director's room where my dad and some of the other execs was very small, you know, like intimate setting, but very nice. And I was the only kid running around there. Well, I started getting the waiters. There's these two waiters, Wally, Big Wally and Little Wally. Yeah. Big Wally was actually bigger than, or smaller than Little Wally. Little Wally was huge.

It was a weird situation, but little Wally would run my bets. So I would ask him to make so. It was like $2 here. And they would make bets for me. I don't hold the tickets. So my dad found out about it and he got so pissed. He banned me from the director's room at Arlington. And he told my mom, you can't bring Michael up here.

He's like, I'm running the track. I can't have an underage kid of mine making bets through the waiters. He wanted to fire the waiters, but my mom wouldn't let him. So, yeah. So I was, you know, 81 was the first million. I was four years old. And that was John Henry. And that's my favorite horse of all times.

time he won the million in 81, 84, and could have won it in 83. Didn't have the best of trips, but yeah, he was an all-time great. Well, let's get into all things Keenland here. So this Breeders' Cup's getting bigger and bigger every year. Just as you've watched the maturation of this weekend, talk to us a little bit about what's special this particular weekend and anything for people out there listening to learn more about horse racing and the breeders' cap. It's truly a world-class international event. You know, we have all the euros coming over and we see the best of, you know, both sides of the Atlantic. And in recent years, we've had a lot of involvement from Japanese. There's a case to be made that the best horses in the world are in Japan right now.

But, you know, the U.S. has always had the best dirt horses in the world. And the best turf runners in the world have been in Europe. But, you know, we hold our own against the Euros on the turf as well. So it's two days of racing. There's 14 championship races. Today, all the championship races are for two-year-olds. And they're in all divisions. You have turf horses, dirt horses, sprinters, which are horses that run less than a mile, distance horses which run a mile and further. And then the heavyweight division in this country is the older horse division on the main track going a mile and a quarter. And that's the Breeders Cup classic.

That's the $6 million race that anchors the card tomorrow. Yeah, let's get into the Breeders Cup. Let's get into the main event, the Super Bowl. Fascinating numbers here. Let's start out with Flight Line, the heavy favorite here coming in undefeated, five straight, three to five, which in the horse racing world, is pretty, pretty rare, right? Well, it's an obscenely low price. It's not that it's a rare price to see in racing.

You will get horses at low odds here and there. In a race of this caliber, when you're running against grade one horses in the best in the world, to be that much of a favorite over such horses is absurd. There's a chance that flight line goes off as the lowest price in the history of the Breeders Cup. It started 1984. He's three to five on the morning line. I don't know if you're even going to get that. You might get two to five, which are terrible.

terrible odds, but he's that much better than everybody else. And it's not that he's five for five. It's a talent separation, the likes of which you just don't see very often. It's like Will Chamberlain when he came into the NBA. They had to change the rules for him because he was that much better than everybody else. And his most recent start was the TVG Pacific Classic. He won that by 19 and 3 quarter lengths. The horse that finished second has made $10 million.

Wow. So the horse who finished second won the Dubai World Cup, which is a $12 million race and one of the most important races in the world. It's actually double the purse of this. And he's an excellent horse. And Bob Bafford, who trains country grammar, the horse that was the runner up to flight line. Sure. He came out of the stands laughing.

He goes, my horse thinks he won. Because flight line was that much far ahead of him. It was absurd. It was an utterly absurd performance. And what makes it even more absurd, it was the first time he had ever gone two turns. It was the first time he had ever gone a mile and a quarter. Usually when horses go a mile and a quarter, they build up to that through a series of races. You know, the derby trail is a very, you know, relatable.

road where these horses will go mile to quarter for the first time in their life as three-year-olds in the Kentucky Derby. They work their way up to that. They're running around one turn in their first few starts. Then they go two turns at a mile in a 16th. Sometimes there's a two-turn mile in there. Most of them are a mile in the 16th. They'll work up. And then usually their last race before the derby is a mile in an eighth or a mile in three-sixth.

But they never get to that mile in a quarter until the derby. And you have to work your way up to that. For him to do what he did the first time going a mile and a quarter and his first time around two turns is just another absurdity. and how talented he really is. So when looking at this race, for me, again, and I'm a novice, of course, but when I go to Del Mar, we look at jockeys, we look at trainers,

and we look at horses. In this particular Breeders' Cup, just for rookies out there looking to get better, where do you place value on horse, trainer, jockey? It is horse racing, so that's the most important thing. The old adage of loaded gut is dangerous than anybody's hand. If you have the horse, it doesn't matter who the people are involved.

Jockeys more often than not are a detriment than an addition. There are very few riders in the history of this game that could step on a horse and improve them. They have existed, right? They are some of those out there. But for the most part, jockeys and trainers, you know, a trainer's job is playing defense. Get out of the horse's way.

Don't let anything go wrong. And there's more than one way to train a horse, and it's more art than science. And they all do it differently. But for the most part, you just don't want anything to go wrong. Get that horse to the peak ability on the right day and make sure nothing goes wrong. And for a jockey, it's get out of the horse's way, make sure they sit a good trip, put the horse where they're going to excel. Yeah, there's a lot of tactics that go into race riding.

But these jockeys are all professionals. These are all riders that are exceptionally elite in their field. And on a day like today, there's going to be more impact by mistakes than, wow, what a brilliant thing he did. And just as a sports better role, it's looking for an edge. How can you find an edge in a Breeders' Cup classic like this? So in the classic, it's hard. I mean, the beautiful thing about the Breeders' Cup is it's two days of racing. And there are races today and tomorrow leading up to it.

There's 14 championship races. Yes, that's the biggest one. But there's great value in some of these other races. I mean, there's horses. You will see horses win over the next couple days at odds of 20 and 30 to 1. So Order of Australia, who is in the Breeders' Cup turf, I think he's 20 to 1 morning line. He won the Breeders Cup Mile two years ago, I believe it odds of 68 to 1. Holy God.

And those things happen. And I mean, this is a wager you can get 68 to 1 return on your investment if you're right in a matter of a minute and 34 seconds. So it's a little bit different than betting sports, right? When betting sports, you're sweating out, you know, plus 165 because you got the best of it. And it takes three hours for you to see if that, you know, see if that game goes your way. Yeah. Whereas in horse racing, you know, you're playing race to race. You have opportunity after opportunity and most people who bet this game are trying to get value on their plays

So I mean there's people that you know four or five to one might not be enough and there's horses that it just you know depends on how you look at it if you think look at Look if flight line he should be two to five in this field if he went off at eight to five That's great value. That's great value. It's never going to happen. But it's how you look at it there could be horses that are 25 30 to one on the day like today that have just come off of like graded or group one victories, which are the highest level of racing that are the, you know, the best in their stable, the best in their trainer. And it's just the fields are so deep. When you're right, you get rewarded. Sure. You know, the pick six is, there's two pick sixes for a dollar in either day. They're going to play. You know, for them to pay six figures on a $1 dollar wager is not uncommon. And there's always the potential they could pay over a million. The pools are going to be huge. Pick five, same thing. I mean, the opening day at Del Mar this year is the regular race day. The first pick five through the first five races paid over $750,000. Holy cow. All right. I know you're a busy man. One more question before we get into my picks.

Yeah. Is there such a thing? There's momentum in sports, of course, football, basketball, et cetera. Is there momentum in horse race? Absolutely. So from that, from that thought, outside of the heavy chalk here, flight line, who else has momentum coming in? So in that race, this is how you're going to look at it. I personally don't recommend betting against flight line. Something really bizarre would have to happen for him to lose. and that's why they run the race. And do you say that a lot just for those out there listening? No. That's a rare thing to say. No, and I hate betting chalk and I hate being on favorites, but you have to be realistic.

What a lot of people think is going to happen is life is good who's exceptionally fast. They think he could give him a tussle on the front end. Let's go. I was in Dubai when Life is Good went postered as a favorite in the Dubai World Cup, and we thought he was going to be the second coming of Man of War. He was as highly touted there as any horse going into it. We thought he was going to take the man of his best older horse in the country. And at that line, flight line hadn't made a start this year.

He only had one race and he'd won the Malibu, which is a seven for a long race for three-year-olds. Impressively, but he hadn't run yet in the Metropolitan, which is when he really announced himself. Life is good, couldn't get the mile and a quarter that day, and he got beat by country grammar. And I was all over country grammar that day. So I don't get, I don't get wooed easily by these short prices. I'm trying to, so there's a very short price today in the juvenile cave rock for Bob Bafford. Talented two-year-old, he's going to be odds on. He'll be less than even money.

I'm trying to beat him. And, look, Bob Bafford is perhaps the greatest dirt trainer in the history of this game. Sure. He's exceptional with two-year-olds. But I feel like that's a place where I got to beat him. So I'm not swayed easily by the hype, but I don't know that I've ever seen a horse-like flight line before. So it's one of those things. And if you want to get value, if you want to try to make some money out of the Breeders Cup classic,

I would think betting a horse, I would think betting a horse like life is good as a folly because he'll be the second choice and everyone's going to try to beat him with that. I would use a horse who's game like a hot rod Charlie underneath. I would use a horse to try and get a piece at a little bit more of a number and try to make it. The way I'm going to be playing it is I'm going to try and play some crazy pick five. I'm going to use them as a free square in the pick six. Just try to get there. And then in the pick five, same thing.

But I'm using gigantic prices in the earlier races. I love it. Well, I'm putting together a little exacto box. year. I'm going to go flight line, especially after what you said. And you took the words out of my mouth with life is good, but doing the research, the great debut at Del Mar, what I wanted to ask you, though, this horse

had an ankle chip. When horses get banged up like that, does that affect your capping at all? No, chips are nothing. No, chips or nothing. When they remove a chip, if they come back racing, fine, they're nothing. At this point, it's such a minor procedure. It just takes time. You know, you get the procedure.

You got to let. him heal, but that's about it. Now with Ortiz as the jockey and Todd as a trainer, do you like that combo for this particular horse? Yeah, I mean, I know you mentioned earlier, it doesn't matter too much. Well, Ira's the best rider in the world and Todd Pletcher is the best trainer in the world.

So the connections are never really in question. If I was really going to try to blow up the exact, I would use Teba, I think he is a horse with a higher ceiling, because we've seen so little of him, he's only made five starts. When he won the Santa Nita Derby second time out, that was an unbelievable mind-blowing performance and accomplishment for a horse to do that

in just a second career start. I think he's sexier. He's more flashy. He doesn't have the substance of a life as good. And life as good is very fast, so he's got that. But I think if you're going to be, life as good is going to have to out foot flight line early. And people think, well, he can get the lead.

And then he's going to have to stay the mile and a quarter. He's not doing both of those things. He might not even be faster than flight line. So that's like, I'm very against life is good in this spot. And then, you're, you're going. You know, like Hot Rod Charlie is just so game. He always fires his shot. So I would use Taibon in Hot Rod Charlie underneath.

I'm flirting with Epicenter as my show. We all remember the Churchill Downs debut, but it's a name, you know, for a fairweather horse fan like my side. He was supposed to be Steve Aspen's first derby winner. And he's been very good in his last two. I'm not sold that Epicenter has to run that Travers back. He ran a race in the Travers. That's better than just about anybody else on the page, except for Flores. light line. But even with what he ran that day, I don't think that puts him in front of hot rod Charlie's

most recent effort in the Lucas Classic. And I think Rich Strike, who finished second, he's 20 to 1. Boy, he really, I mean, he hasn't won since the Derby, but that Lucas Classic really franked his form in that race. It wasn't a fluke. And if you watch the Derby, it was a brilliant race from a horse and a brilliant ride by Sonny Leon. And I don't think it was a fake Derby win. I think there's very few fake Derby winners like, oh, well, that horse was no good. Even mind that bird back in 2009. He ran second of the pregnist to Rachel Alexander, who's a Hall of Fame Philly, and he was third in the Belmont when Calvin moved too early on him. So, you know, Rich Strike, a big number. I would throw those horses underneath. I would take the stand against life as good and not take the stand against flight line.

All right. And just getting you out of here with a long shot, you're liking Hot Rod Charlie, 15 to 1. Yeah, I mean, I don't like anybody over flight line here. Rich Strike Hot Rod Charlie and Taba would be the horses that you use underneath them. Okay. Just because they're, they all have a reason. Taba's sexier and flashier. Hot Rod Charlie is just super consistent and Rich Strike is

I think forgotten people just think it was fluky At the center he's fine He could run as well as those horses but he'll probably be second choice second or third choice with life is good So I'm gonna there's no value in there So I'm gonna fade the second and third choices And use those other ones underneath if I'm playing in exactly like that I love well Mike thanks so much for spending some time with us

Where can everyone listen and check you out And anything else you want to plug? Yeah you can watch all the Breeders Cup races on Fanduil TV today and all the Breeders Cup races on Fandwell TV tomorrow except for the Breeders Cup Classic. You can watch that on NBC. There you go. Mike Joyce.

Remember, TVG, as he just alluded to in the Fandual Racing app, is the best way to bet races this weekend. Just sign up and you'll get a no sweat first bet up to $100 back. If your horse doesn't win exclusively on racing.fandul.com or the Fandual Racing app. Now, make sure to check out Mike Joyce. Man, got me better. All right, man.

Thank you so much. Hey, thanks, man. I appreciate you. Thank you. Part two of. the Breeders Cup at Keenland, Money Lion Monaco podcast. I got my guy, Simon Hunter, a real pro, part of the huge favorites podcast on the volume sports. Simon, great to see you in the flesh, my man.

Good to be here, Lexington. What are we doing here? Let's go. Horse racing. We're going a little degenerate in the pro here talking some shop, little NFL week nine. You know, I fire on everything. Let's go. And you are a true, true, sharp.

I'm fired up to talk to you here. I got a few games I want to throw to you. We can do a little fader following, give me a little insight. I'm going down to Tommy Tamplin first. I'm loving the bucks. I'm loving the bucks. And this is what I want to ask you because I know you guys talk trends sometimes, but I know you can laugh at the trend sometimes.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. But the fact, Simon, that Brady hasn't lost three straight since the O.O., since pre-MySpace, that has to matter for something, combined with the fact that McVeigh and this office. I haven't run the football all year. I mean, these offenses statistical categories, 31st and rushing, 28th in scoring, 30th in sacks allowed, 29th in turnovers.

You want to talk about a Gallifinaccus, Super Bowl hangover. So, yeah, I'm on the books, man. But talk to me about this game and the combo of just the timing of Brady and the Bucs losing three straight and then also just where the Rams are at. Yeah, brother, I would say the oldest saying in the book is Father Times undefeated, right? And who knows if Father Times called up to Brady? Right. But these trends haven't been hitting, brother.

Like he just lost three straight, which again, like you just said, it never happened before. So he just dropped the game to Pittsburgh. Right. Drop the game that, again, we all can't believe it. That Baltimore game was crazy. Right. Like, they were dominating that game. The injuries on the Baltimore side, and they still couldn't beat them.

So I kind of see where you're coming from, right? This is the spot you take Brady at home, short home dog. I mean, short home favorite against a Rams team that's just bad. Right. Like, they are bad. Simply bad. Like, you can say it's a Super Bowl hangover to me. It's like, okay, you guys sold your soul for the ring, right?

You got rid of all the draft picks. You paid big money to all, like, four or five players. Your line's bad. Your defense is not good like it was last year. So, yeah, I would see the pros are with you, right? The pros have been backing, Tom. They backed them last week, right? We saw that number open at one and a half against Ravens.

So close at minus two and a half for the bucks. That's pro money. They got spanked, right? The Ravens killed them. So I think you're riding, the pros are with you. Like, you're riding that wave of Brady is going to get it right? They're going to figure it out. And against the Rams, it don't get much easier at home in this situation.

So it won't be one of my bigger bets this week. But I can tell you pros have hit it and they're hitting it big. Where the public, to me, they'll be on the Rams, right? They'll take the points in the worst team. So interesting game that you like that one, though. Yeah, well, I like it also. Just from a football perspective, do the Bucks have this game circled because of the divisional around last year? I mean, 273, they almost come back.

Like, is there anything from a capping standpoint where you factor in a beer pong rebuttal game? Not at all. Yeah, because it's what Brady do is 45. Brady's mad. Brady is eating avocado ice cream party at one, Simon. He needs any edge of that. That's what I'm saying, though. Like, he doesn't need an edge though because he's already pissed us out.

He's like, if I really lose my marriage to go three and five, is this really happening in my life? So to me, you're not lying. He doesn't even worry about last year. Tim. He's pissed as hell anyway. So, yeah, like, if you want an angry Brady, this is angry it's going to get. Like, they need this game bad. So I'm with you on that.

All right. Let's get into interesting slate, not a ton of marquee games here. Titans Chiefs. I'm kind of perplexed at a double-digit number here. Titans haven't lost in a month. Is this an Andy Reid off a buy number? It could be. And it's just also the Chiefs respect, right? Like the Chiefs, not that they were looked down upon coming into the season, but the Chargers hype was out of control. Denver's hype was just next level. And the Chiefs were just like the ugly old girlfriend. It was like, no one's talking about them. She's still smoking hot. Everyone just like was like, oh, Tyreeks gone. to me, I never really let that phase me.

It's like, I love the Chiefs coming into the year. Nothing's changed about that. I love the offense. This is such a letdown spot for them. Like, the Tennessee thing makes sense where, I mean, you are going to bet it, and we're going to be pissed us out when it's 24-0-0. Chiefs. But Derek Kennedy get right against a run defense that can't stop the run.

And the Chiefs, we've got to take the number here. And the Todd... It just oozes of a close game. So to me, I like the 12, 12-and-a-half Tennessee. But like you just said, Andy Rudolph a bye, that's always scary. I know. But also the Titan. Does it factor in they beat them four out of the last five?

That's amazing. That's amazing. That's unbelievable. That's why I'm sitting here going, why, Simon? From a professional standpoint, do you look at the number? Are you scratching your head? No, because I thought that was a fair number in the sense that Tain Hill just missed a week with an injury. Right.

Their backup quarterback through for 55 yards. So that's one of those where it's like, yeah, we're kind of buying a low here on the Tennessee team. And also just one more thing on that thought, the Chiefs, three of their five wins over 40 points. When you look at that, knowing that Vrable and this team, is they run, they muck it up, they play D. Right. Is that, to me, seeing that the Chiefs have won shootouts, three out of their five, this doesn't scream like a shootout game. This screams like really a playoff game that starts out slow and offensively slow as well. Yeah, honestly, I expect Vrable's defense played better than what, you know, the 49ers, that was just a whirlwind, right?

They just could not stop them. Right. Same thing with the Raiders. Raiders have not been that good of a defense. So the teams that they've put up a ton of yards on, just aren't that great a defense. Where Tennessee this year, they've been really, like, really based on their defense.

Like them leading the AFC South, I can't believe it. But it's probably because of their defense. So to me, that's what you're backing. You're back in the strong defense with a strong run game. Will you ever back a stat like this under Vrable, 24 and 2 in D. Henry? King Henry goes for over 100.

They're under 500 when he doesn't. Right. This serviceable Chiefs run, D. He gets over 100? Can they win the game? I mean, I always throw a little bit on the money line with Rable. Historically, he's great on the return value of him betting a dog. So, yeah, I would throw it on there.

The value is good on betting him as a dog there, but to me, it's like, would I put more than a hundred bucks? Nah. Like, that's just, that's a scary dog to win out, right? Because we've seen Andy Reid, when his team's down just a couple of points, you know what's about to happen, right? My home is probably going to drive that field, get that touch on our field goal. So like the number way more than the money line.

All right. I'm getting emotional here because I'm a recovering San Diego Charter fan. From Ron Burgundy land. The chart, I just, I said it all day. If the Chargers cannot off a buy, beat Atlanta. Just beat them. I'm off them. I'm off them.

I'm done with Staley already. But this to me, under Herbert on the road, doesn't throw a pick their six and one. This pastee for Atlanta is abysmal. But the run deep for the Chargers is unwatchable. There you go. And then you got a top three Falcons rush team. or a run team. When all that's a fact, you've got a great passing team versus a bad passing team and a good running team versus a bad rush. D, how do you cap this?

Honestly, the fading of the chaggers has been really profitable to me. And it's honestly because the head coach is- He's killing. Yeah, and he's just not smart. He's not putting Herbert in the best position. That's what you need with a lot of these coaches. It's like, again, Mike McDaniels, the head coach of the Dolphins. Who knows if two is this great? He's putting him in the best position every game. And that's what you're looking for with these head coaches. So looking at this matchup, man, I get what you're coming from. one of those chargers hype. Two weeks to prepare.

Yeah, but that doesn't even matter where it's like, no. They've been banged up. Yeah, but it's not even that either. It's just your guy's system's not working. Like Herbert, he'll have a streak where that, when he'll have one quarter, you'll have 14 points right, and then he'll have three quarters where he can't pick up a first down. That should not be the, like, that should not be what you're getting with Herbert.

Because to everyone, I think he's a top 10 quarterback. So the fact that you run in Atlanta's run defense, that's too much of a good match for me to pass up where I see Atlanta taking away the run of the charges making them one dimensional where Atlantic can ball control against the charger. So that number, you know it stinks. You think they're doing you a favor giving you minus three in their chargers? No, they're sucking you in.

Why am I thinking like a public lad here? I can't get out of my head that the Falcons are going to win this game. Especially with how, I would say, and I don't know if this matters that all the Panthers took them a true 60. Yeah. So can't, I mean, can they come in a little lethargic? They could.

They could, but to me, that's one of those wins that kind of propels you in the season. Like, they are now in first place in their division. That's a good mojo right there. Like, that's a team that's going to start believing in themselves. Where the Chargers, that's a lot of self-doubt, brother. They've been sliding a lot this year. And to your credit, you have a Falcons NFC South future, correct? I do.

Unbelievable. 35 to 1, 401. 35 to 1. This fan is incredible. All right. I wish I could brag, but that was truly just throwing darts, brother. But I just believed in that division that they were the biggest slept on team. Right, right.

All right, just one more for you here real quick. And I hear you and chat talk about it often. Home divisional dog, you take the number. Love the Browns Monday night, took them. 12 and a half now moving around 11-ish on Fandul for the Bills and the Jets, Simon. Yeah. I mean, we know the Bills routed them twice last year, covered that number easily. Yeah.

Now it's down to 11.5 on Fandle. Anything on this game, to me, the Jets look completely different with no, with no Brees Hall. Yeah. And Zach Wilson, I'm sorry, man, a little unwatchable at the moment. And I'm hosting a New York show. So not easy for me to say. But I'm leaning bills here just because when they win, they blow teams out. Yeah.

Is that the proper side? I'll take it again because last week I was on the bills against Green Bay, and that back door hurt. We all saw it coming to. They were up 17. He had the ball. And we were like, okay, this is landing on 10. And it did. So this week's kind of the same thing where it's like, okay, Green Bay needed three

turnovers. One of them was in the red zone from Josh Allen just to get that comeback. We've seen Josh. He doesn't have back-to-back bad games. Usually he has a bad game. That's the greatest part about this team. They had a bad game. He still put up 27 and dominated Green Bay.

Same thing with here with the Jets. The Jets, like you just talked about, they've kind of lost our identity here. Now they're playing too much on Zach Wilson. Don't like that matchup for him, right? We just don't like him having to be passing the ball a lot. In the game, you expect them to be coming behind against the dominant Bill's team, I like it. But the scary part for me is I've heard two really smart groups coming in on the Jets.

They're clearly taking a stand on it. So say earlier in the week, one of my bigger bets was going to be the bills. I've tailored it back a little bit just because, again, these guys move big money. They move lines. I've seen this line drop to 11.5 and a couple of books. Clearly, that's off of the books getting hit by these sharp groups. To me, I like the bills, but I might be stepping in like I was last night with the Eagles. Just because we're about mid-week through the season here, any value on any futures that you're staying?

Aaron at anything you like out there. NFC South, lines are moving. Of course, NFC North, any value on the hackers? Any teams that started out with a ton of chalk that you might want to fire on for the playoffs? I honestly think there's still great value on the 49ers to win it all. For the NFC, to me, I know the Eagles are getting all the hype right now. Again, I'm an Eagles fan. I love it. But at the same time, it's like, that's going to be a real test.

You got McCaffrey coming in that run blocking scheme against an Eagles defense that really can't stop the run. That's an advantage. What's Dallas is big this weakness? Can't stop the run. that's another advantage of the 49ers. So to me, the team's got all the smoke blown up there. You know what right now? It's the Cowboys.

It's the Eagles. It's the Vikings. People are going to start catch up with the 49ers, right? Because it's going to start getting healthy here. So that's a future where, like, if you're already invested on the Eagles to win it all, if you already have a future on the Cowboys and you're looking for another team to pair up, I wouldn't do the Vikings. Again, I don't really believe in the Giants.

But the 49ers, that's a team that's like turning around here. They're going to be battling the Seahawks in that division. I like that for them. I like that they have a team that's going to be going, pushing them this whole year. So to me, a good value still is the 49ers, divisionally and Super Bowl futures. I'll get you out of here with this. One more fader. I can not ask you.

Yeah. Going against the three and a half at home. There's no way Rogers and the Packers lose to the lot. There's just, there's no way. I don't care that it's the public side. If it is, no, it's not. Mine's three and a half. I got, I have to take it.

I'm living and dying by the captain. I'm dying with G. I think the public is finally, like they cashed their tickets last week. They were on Green Bay. They came through. That was too much for them. They were like, you know what? I'm off it. Let me take the home dog, Detroit who they've been moving the ball, right? And that's something Green Bay hasn't been doing. Detroit's been able to move the ball and score points at home especially. Right. It's just interesting. This line is sitting at three and a half and the public has just been pounding. It hasn't moved at all. Yeah, they just been pounding Detroit. And the book is just saying, yes, bet the money line, bet Detroit three and a half. Go ahead. They're still back in Green Bay. So that was one of those where I wanted to take Detroit with Swiftout. I'm out. Like to me, that's the magic piece of that team. Like early in the year, when they were playing so well and they were covering Swip was healthy. We've seen since he's been out, they've just been on a slide. Even last

week when he got out, he got hurt. They didn't score a single point in the second half, so I can't back to Detroit that looks like an offense that's just reeling right now. I like where you're out with Green Bay. Are you off Ghibi though for a playoff run? Yeah, dude. You're still too early? No, Green Bay's dead. They ain't making the playoffs. Nah. They literally, they've dropped

the easy games of their schedule. It's about to get a lot tougher for them down the road, especially where teams like, I think Chicago is going to be better as year goes along. Sure. Like, that's a big, that's a big knock to them with Green Bay. They have to play them coming up. So there's a couple more games. I see them dropping where I can just still see the Giants getting in.

I can still see the Cowboys getting in. And I see the Seahawks making it, man. I know it's crazy to think, but I see the Seahawks getting that wildcard spot. I know the public's hammering Seahawks plus too. Yeah. Is that a mousetrap? Honestly. Let's die together, brother.

We got it. They literally give them nine points to this Cardinals team nine. I mean three weeks ago. Honestly. I think they're actually going to play better in Arizona, right? Because the weather was crap up there in Seattle when they played that game. We've seen Gino play well when it's indoor controlled environments. He can pass the ball well.

And Kenneth Walker, man, that's the X factor for that offense right now, running the ball. So I like everything on the Seawks have done. Like they really become a complete team. In a year, we all thought they were going to tank for a quarterback. It's crazy, man. You never know. That's crazy. Simon Hunter, the favorites, killing it.

Pro on and off the court. Thank you so much for taking some time. Thanks, brother. All right, I'm going to get out of here with a quick Fandul ad read here. Now is the perfect time to download FanDuel. America's number one sports book because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win.

Just sign up with promo code Monaco. Favorite bets upcoming NFL games? You already heard me talking with Simon. I'm going down. I'm going down with Tommy Tampa in the pirate ship. I'm taking the box. I'm going to nibble on the Titans and I am emotionally firing on the Chargers. So sign up today with promo code Monaco for your no sweat first bet.

make every moment more of this season with Fandul, official sportsbook partner of the NFL. I'm out of here with my signature sign-off. Don't forget to hug your mothers. We'll see you back in the studio. The volume.