The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NBA Finals Bets: Heat-Nuggets Game 2 Predictions

Episode Date: June 3, 2023

Alex Monaco breaks down Game 1 of the NBA Finals between Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat and Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. First, Monaco discusses how he is still ALL IN on the Heat and is not even close to giving up hope just yet. Then, Monaco explains what went wrong for the Heat and what the Nuggets did to win Game 1 convincingly. Then, Monaco explains why he still believes in the Heat and why the Nuggets aren't as good as they seem. Finally, Monaco gets you ready and prepared to make your best bets on Sunday for Game 2 of the NBA Finals. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. What's up, everybody. Alex Monaco here. Thank you for watching the Moneyline Monaco podcast on the Volume Sports YouTube channel. We are live Monday, Wednesday, Friday, wherever you get your pods. We are on Amazon Amp streaming Monday through Friday making picks, making bets. It's us first, though, books. I'm trying to win with you.

So come follow me at Moneyline, Monaco. Let's win together. Here we go. Just a reminder, you can catch me recording this podcast live on Amp. Amp is a new live radio app that lets you call in and chat with me in person while I'm recording. Get the app on Apple's App Store and make sure you follow me at MoneyLine Monaco to get notified when I go live. So you're telling me there's a chance. Welcome back into another episode of MoneyLine Monaco, sports gambling with MoneyLine Monaco.

I'm your host, Alex Monaco. Waking up off and out. sitting here on Heat Island, me, lebitard, Ocho Sinko, the 305 community, a couple of our devoted AMP engagement fan supporters of the Moneyline Monaco pot. And that's it. Everybody else is jumping for Jerry Jolly Joy this morning. But I am here to tell you to grab a Money Line Monaco volume. sports mug, put some coffee in it, sit back and listen to me, sell you a car you don't need.

But once I do, you may sit here at over 5 to 1 and tell yourself, this kid might have something. Now, 10493 was the loss. Denver does what they are supposed to do in that spot. Now, I'm going to give you the numbers of the history of what this spot was for Denver so you can cool down for a second. All right, let the Miami-Astentura humidity trickle off, just take an inhale, take a Mr. Deeds goose fraba exhale, all right? Historically, non-first round playoff teams where a team has more than a week, plus off versus an opponent who has just one to three days off, literally to a T.

Denver, Miami game one. The Denver side of that trend, 17 and 5 against the spread. On top of that, we said it and I knew it was a booby trap, but I still took a shot. And I'm okay with it. Teams coming off of game sevens, which Miami did against Boston, is an abysmal, 33 and 53 straight up, just 38% of the time winning in game 1s the following series. That's that stats since 1988. So it was to be expected a Denver team that was undefeated at home in the playoffs

that had not lost at home since two months ago. With the third most days off in the NBA finals, we're going to come out and show out. Now, positive takeaways all over the board here from a Miami perspective. I got to be honest. Number one, a 104.93 loss, yes. We took the Miami plus nine spread as well as the money line. But the Miami plus nine, this was the biggest Larry David scenario I've ever seen. A guy named Nikola Jovich, one consonant off from the best player in the world.

this season. Nicola Yolkich. dribbling down the court, 11 point deficit. Miami gets the stop. We get a bucket. We get a backdoor cover push. We'll take that Scotty Van Good beat all day long. He hits it off his knee like a Mighty

Mites 2K68 without a picture profile. I mean, I was livid. Absolutely through the moon, livid. We didn't cover that spread. I gave you every reason in the book that we should have cover that spread,

but I'll tell you one thing. And outscoring Denver, 30 to 20 in the fourth quarter, coming out the gate in the fourth quarter when you were done. You were done. You got outscored by nine and then outscored by eight in the first half. You're down by well into the double digits. You're down by a ridiculous 15 points. Then you lose the third quarter.

Most teams, most teams would have said, give me the Charles Barkley oxygen. I need it. I'm going to rest my boys. I'm going to rest my boys. What did Miami do? They came out on an 11-0 fourth quarter run. They won the fourth quarter by double digits.

And we are listening to Mike Malone on the podium talking about justifying closing out series. Now, let me take you back a second. If we were to sit here and educated guess what would have happened in that game? Denver wins the first quarter. Denver ultimately wins the game. But what would you have also educated guests that would have happened? Hypothesized, if you will.

You would have sat there and said the Bill Belichick halftime adjustments would have gone to the better coach. Well, guess what? They did. You look at the stats, the numbers really in the weeds. And I don't want to bog you down. I'm just going to tell you right now. Miami played a better second half. And there are a couple things that happened on Miami's side that simply will not happen again.

Now, the big two versus the big two, Yokic and Murray did outplay Bam and Jimmy by a significant margin. Now, Bam had his best game in his last 10, arguably. He kept them in it in that first half when they were battling. And remind yourself, this game was 39, 33. 39 33. You know what? I did my math wrong.

The math, the heat were down 17 and a half. I apologize. 3933. Denver goes on a 17-3 run and they're down in a sick manner. But the reality is this was a very close, competitive first 20 minutes of the game. Denver won this game. The way they closed the second half of the second.

quarter. You don't believe me. Go back and look. Literally, there was a 19 or 20 to 3 run in the second half of the second quarter. Miami cut it to six. And that's what's encouraging here. Then you start looking at role players versus role players. I tweeted out earlier this morning. Max Struz owes us a donation to the city of Miami. Oh for nine from three is a, that's a misdemeanor in the city of the 305. You go 0 of 9 and 0 of 10. Stop shooting the basketball. It's not your night, my guy.

Miami's not a one-trick pony behind the perimeter. Dish the rock, max. So that was incredibly discouraging. Then you look at Caleb Martin, who's coming off averaging 19 per against Boston, literally wrote himself a paycheck for next year, whoever wants to sign him, whether it's not Miami or it is. And he goes one of seven with a basket. Then Duncan Robinson, who again, we're not expecting a ton from,

but without Tyler Hero, we need Duncan Robinson to be half of Tyler Hero. Tyler Hero averages 20. Give us 10. Duncan Robinson had again a basket. So you look at Struz, Martin, and Robinson, and they gave you six points. I mean, that is about as a swift kick to the midsection as you're going to get if you were on Miami. And we still almost covered. Let's keep looking at the painting, shall we?

Jimmy Butler goes 13 points on 6 of 14 shooting. It was a bad night by Jimmy Bucket standards. Now, just to put this in your noggin, the man had two triple doubles in the bubble in his final debut. only two men have had multiple triple doubles in the history of the NBA finals, the other man not named Jimmy Butler's LeBron James. So I expect fully Jimmy Buckets to bounce back. So we're sitting here. We lose a game by 11.

All I'm seeing is it was Nuggets domination, sun up to sundown. I'm not saying that the Nuggets didn't dictate the pace, dictate the tempo. I'm also not saying that Nikola Yokic didn't do what a master class, Master Craftsman would do in that spot in the first quarter. Not even take the reins offensively. Instead, get your teammates involved. Guy had five assists before the first commercial break. He was surgical.

Nikola Yokic was exquisite. He was a wizard. It was Dumbledore minus the beard. He's going to average a triple double in the series. I'm okay with it. I am still okay with it. Where I'm not okay is, Michael Porter Jr. getting 13 rebounds,

Aaron Gordon and Porter putting up 30 between the two of them. I'm not okay with. I am perfectly fine with Yolkich and Murray giving us 53 between the two of them. Matter of fact, I'll take that. I will take 53 points all series between the best two. Can Bruce Brown, can Tavius Colwell Pope, Michael Porter and Aaron Gordon consistently beat you. Sit here.

Decompress with me and ask yourself that. Now, I want you to pull up the stat sheet because the NBA is always up to no good. And we always talk about the Donagie fixes in. Well, the NBA has lost millions of dollars on that Lakers Nugget sweep. And I'm not going to sit here and go down a Joe Rogan path with you. But I am going to tell you that the might. Miami Heat had two free throws in game one. And I was up early because I watch everything.

I study it all. So you don't have to. Dan Patrick gave me his stat of the day. Stad of the day. Bob, the lowest amount of free throws taken in the history of the NBA finals happened in front of our eyes in game one. The Miami Heat from the free throw line.

Took two attempts. Denver had 20. You mean to tell me in a league where you can make a sketch McGee case that a whistle could be blown or not on damn near every possession, just like holding could be called in the NFL on damn near every possession,

that the Miami Heat got to the free throw line one time, one time for two shots, bam out of bio. You mean to tell me, one foul on the heat. Did you see Yokic rugby player mauling Duncan Robinson to the ground and they called a foul on Duncan?

Look, the NBA needed the Nuggets to win that game one. The whole wide world is sitting here saying that the Nuggets dominated you, Miami, sunup to sundown. You had three role players give you six points all of which you average double figures. You got to the line one time. Now, just to put this in your head, the history in the finals,

the fewest free throws ever shot was five. The last time that happened was 1983. It was negative eight years old. Negative eight. Fifth team ever to shoot 100% from the free throw line in the NBA finals and it was two for F thing two. seething from that. I'm baking from that. I'm furious. That is the game. Who beats anybody?

Anybody. When you shoot a basket at the charity strike. So I'm very much bothered by that. But the reality is Miami did not play a very good game. Miami was off. Now we sit here with two days off. Miami gets more adjustment. to the altitude. Miami has tape now. Miami has a little bit of momentum from that fourth quarter. Can you sit here and make a case? I can.

That they have a little momentum from outscoring them 30 to 20 in the fourth quarter. Again, Mikey Malone spent the beginning of his press conference talking about closing. Coffee's for Glenn Gary closes. So that's

to be mentioned. This is a Miami Heat team that makes nearly 40% of their shots from distance. All right. They led the playoffs in three point efficiency around 39%. They were well below their quota. Well below their quota. So tit for tat, assists were in within three. Rebounds were within two, 45 to 43.

Turnovers in this game were 10 to 8. points in the paint were single digits between the two of them. Steels actually went to Miami. Three point of three pointer efficiency went to Miami. Field goal percentage, 10% better for the nuggets. And 14 more free throws made and 18 more free throws attempted. Yeah, that's going to get you a game one win. So again, Terry Benner,

Danny Ocean, Las Vegas was not built off of winners. It was built off a sucker free Friday, people like me that took Miami on the Money Lion game one. But I'll tell you one thing. Miami, a team that hadn't lost three in a row since last series in two months of basketball, a team that didn't even lose two in a row in the entire playoffs until the Celtics up three oh and then got three back. this entire run, they will come back with a significantly better game two effort.

And I encourage you, I implore you to go to whatever shop you're pending and think about, just think about the value of plus 550 for the Miami Heat to win this series. Now, you're probably asking yourself, they have to beat the nuggets four out of the next six times. how often has that even happened? Well, it's happened 23 times in the NBA finals. A team goes down 1-0, they come back and win. Matter of fact, it happened last year. Boston won game one.

Everyone hits the panic button, the Dr. Evil red button on some of their futures. They abandoned the GSW ship. Golden State won the last three games after going down two times in that series. So again, I remind you, we have more experience on our side. before yesterday, 29 Eric's bolsterer coached finals to Mikey Malone Zero. We have three guys who played in the NBA finals in a heat uniform, bam, Jimmy, and hero, Eudanis player coach,

and you have Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love who have championship rings and pedigree in their back pocket. If we again think that Miami is going to lay down or Miami's going to pull in L.A. Lakers and they're exhausted and lethargic, Jimmy Butler is not LeBron. He is not a Fedman 38 already has a legacy defined. This is his legacy. This is his Hall of Fame ballot, in my opinion.

So if you really think for any second that this team is going to mail it in or exhaust himself or they're done, no. Matter of fact, I didn't see an exhausted Miami team despite the altitude, the lack of mismass rest advantage, et cetera. And I said this on my Wednesday pot, and I do not waver the history of the NBA, and particularly the championship was built, go by the decades, off of losing the finals coming back and getting a beer pong bottle revenge. And it will happen. Now, if I lose, I lose. We put 223 down to win 11 racks on these two meetings.

So I've already had my finger on the pulse of this playoff run. I had a retire Lakers Knicks futures. It went away. The practical logical purchase was heat nuggets. These are the two best teams from their conferences. So as we decompress, feel good that Kyle Lowry showed up, feel good that as good as Aaron Gordon played, as beautiful as Michael Porter's double double looks,

those were both above quota and the role players as they should have at home for Denver stuck out a lot more than Mayans. But Miami has to take a long look. And I did see, obviously, we know, Denver dealing and breaking down the zone a little bit better, but I also did see Miami get some key stops at certain points. Now, going to my chat here, looking at our boys on Amazon AMP, which I love, Sean Degar's on, my guy, Matt.

Mr. Gansa, I'm reading it all right now. We feel great about it. We were still in the game. Jovich killing us on a back door. Caleb Martin underswer a lot as soon as he did pregame interviews. All factual, all true. And we shot.

Terribly. So if Caleb Martin cools off, then it's back to Miami heat culture and X-Man up. Somebody has to step up. Struis will probably bounce back. I love 19 from Gay Vincent. That was huge. And we do have one more card to play that no one is prepped for that everyone is saying

might be coming, might not. And that is, we need a hero with two ours. Tyler Hero has already begun practicing shooting. His wrist is good enough to flick it. So there is one last card to be played. And I imagine they'd probably roll him out at home than on the road in game two. That's what we're hearing. So that is in our back pocket too.

But I think, and again, this line opened it plus nine last night, moved down to eight and a half, looking at the fact that this was on a live line all the way up to 20 and a half. and yes, I nibbled because I'm an animal, 20 and a half, it was 16 and a half at half time. Always, always count Miami not all the way out. I don't think Caleb Martin is done. I think he had a bad night. I do think those pregame interviews, look, you give a role player like that, extra J. Cole shine.

This guy's a feature on the J. Cole track, not J. Cole. Let's not make him that. So that was a little problematic. That was a bummer. The extra attention, the extra moment. for someone like that may rattle them. So yeah, good point by Sean in the chat. Some of these guys, they're not bulletproof on the Miami side despite being able to lean

on half the locker room being to this spot before. But you have to tip your fro to the nuggets. They did what they were supposed to do. They protected home court. But last thing I'll say here is they won one game and Yokic pointed to his finger for a ring. So let's all remember. here that Nicola Yokic pointed to his finger after one game in the animal kingdom amongst a bunch of dogs. You don't do that. You just don't do that because the Yokets brothers

are not there to WWE Royal Rumble save you on the court after that. So I expect the intensity, the physicality, and getting a gosh damn whistle. for Miami to be on a serious uptick for game two. And if you don't like eight and a half, I do feel bad for you. I do not see how Miami doesn't at least cover. I'm sprinkling on the money line.

I'm going down with Collins Avenue. I have no problem going down with the 305. I still believe in this team. I am double Costanza dipping on plus 550. Interesting to note, they didn't move the series spread to two and a half. yet. They just doubled the juice. So it's still at one and a half.

The original series spread line, just the juice chains as it would in any other series at any other time. I do believe this is going to be two, two after four. I do believe anything Miami we take here on out, we are on the minority side, but, but I do believe we are on the correct side. And ultimately, that's all that matters. So it's me against the world. It's us in the AMP chat against the world.

Jimmy buckets will be back. I think sprinkling on a triple double at some point here is a play. Jimmy Butler's boards and assists to my guy in the chat. Garzan, absolutely a sprinkle is worth over five and a half, over six and a half, boards and assists respectively all day long. and probably the best prop on the board is Michael Porter over seven and a half rebounds. It's not sexy. It's not glamorous.

But the guy had straight up stolen Yokid's boards away from us. We had 14 plus. He didn't get close to that. So if there's another guy out there on a prop that's just you're not going to talk about, Michael Porter rebounds, a sneaky, sneaky dub. So we have a wonderful weekend to decompress. everyone get some rest, everyone restore, we're coming back for Denver's jugular.

And nothing to me really stood out like Miami didn't do everything to stay in that game and keep it competitive. And I do believe that the Miami Heat are going to bounce back in game two. I will not be back on the mic before game two. so I am going out on the money line. I am taking the 8.5. Now, the under cleared by a disgusting amount. It was at 219 to close in game one.

They've already dropped it to 2.14.5. Not sure I want to touch that. But you have to feel good that a team that was averaging 118 through the beginning of the first three rounds of the playoffs barely broke 100. That score was a Miami kind of game. in a Miami kind of dub. So I really do feel actually as good after a loss as we could feel. But remind yourself what you consume in sports for your broadcasting enjoyment.

We'll get into your noggin and absolutely affect you with beer goggles at the window. Just know it. Just know it. Are they doing this half my life? Don't let anybody sway you because the gambling gut is. real. Much love. Don't forget to hug your mothers. Thank you everyone for joining me live. We'll see you next week. Download the free Angie mobile app today or visit Angie.com. A. N-G-I.com. This is a perfect site for someone like myself who had to move cross-country

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