The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NBA Finals Bets: Nuggets dominate Heat + Game 5 predictions

Episode Date: June 10, 2023

Alex Monaco breaks down NBA Finals Game 4 between Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets and Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. The Nuggets have seized control of the NBA Finals after two convincing wins in Miami, but Monaco isn't giving up entirely. Although Miami is down 3-1 and headed to Denver, Monaco thinks the Heat can win Game 5 on the road, but it will be a tough task to win the series. If Miami wins Game 5 in Denver, things can change quickly. Monaco isn't giving up, who else is on Heat Island?? #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. Just a reminder, you can catch me recording this podcast live on AMP. Amp is a new live radio app that lets you call in and chat with me in person while I'm recording. Get the app on Apple's App Store and make sure you follow me at MoneyLine Monaco to get notified when I go live. So you're telling me there's a chance. Welcome into another episode of sports gambling with MoneyLine Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco. I am waking up on a Saturday.

Happy June 10th. I hope you aren't starting your morning like me. I wake up and after I morning meditate that half Judaism, half Italian Catholicness in my being, I settle in to a tweet that was so painful to write. I don't even know where to begin. I'm just going to read it verbatim. And it's as simple as this.

I'm about to record my post game for NBA finals podcast. Might as well be a breakup with a girlfriend. I'm about to call my summer fling with the Miami Heat. I fell hard and they 500 days of summer. Cut me. Through the rom-com music. This is how I feel this morning. I barely had a beer last night.

I feel hungover. I feel like a. The Cupid arrow went right through my degenerate fell for Miami heart. I have so many feels. Put me in a that 70s show circle or a support group book club. I got to write out, talk out, and maybe even Fitz cry out my feelings. Because after game four on the Miami heat, money line, knowing historically since 07, 75 game fours of a less than six point spread. I said it on my show, the better half hour on MSG,

catch that four times a week, and I set it on the pot. If it was a less than six point game four spread, 75 out of 75, two pushes, but 73 covers, whoever one handled the spread, meaning if you laid the three and a half with the nuggets last night, you would have continued that trend or if you were to bet the dog Miami outright, no points necessary on that trend, you would have hit. It went the former, the Nuglitz one, and here we are. And I sit back and look, I've been selling you a little bit, used car salesman, if you will, on a John Voigt, George Costanza convertible you got to buy because he used to own it type approach. I really genuinely believed this eight seed and just taking a step back, pulling off,

charging the Tesla while we have a tick. Second eight seed ever. First seed, since really the five seed of the Miami Bubble Club, but most notably the rocket six seed in the mid-90s. This was the biggest run of a lowest seed moment since then. So a lot to feel impressed about if you're Miami. But you heard the Spolsterer post game 4 quote. He didn't expect anyone to sleep.

He didn't expect anyone to feel any kind of counts short of Snickers, angry, furious, pissed off, and quite frankly, disappointed. Because again, game 4, just like, game two, which is so frustrating. I'm sure Boston Celtics fans everywhere are throwing lepracon clovers at the wall. Because this Nuggets team has shown two games of beatable basketball. But Miami is just done.

They're on E. They don't have a 7-E-11 shell mobile, et cetera, to pull off and recharge with. And at the end, end, end of the day, not to be this guy. But you look at game two when they won. And yes, game two was an out-of-body experience for a Gabe Vincent who fell off the face of the earth at home in Miami in game three and game four.

Gave you seven and two as opposed to his 23 on the road in the altitude. He falls off, strews falls. off. And again, that game two had five Miami guys in double figures with a 20 special plus point performance from a third guy not named Bam or Jimmy. That is the only way to beat this team or you got to go eight guys Miami in double figures. And Max Struz is playing NBA 2K like a seven-year-old who's picking up a PlayStation controller for the first time. Max Strues is the only one in the shoots and ladder my AMI playoff and forget what he did in game two. I don't even want to hear it.

Ten second comment from 51st dates. Grab us something from men in black and put it out of your memory. The guy has given us three and two New York bagels in three of four games. You want to talk about unconsciously unfathomable bad? even saying words right now. I'm so hot and angry. He's been one of 21 in the three losses from the field. Forget hurting your team. That's almost the reason. He starts. He's a starter. You don't even know how to insert someone like him. Then you take Max Struz aside. Caleb Martin didn't wake up till it was too little too late. And this is,

the most angry thing about and mind-numbingly frustrating, if I'm really calling a spade-spate, is that I said this before the series. If Miami's going to beat Denver, it's going to be on championship pedigree and experience. What did Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love show us last night? Everything that embodies a champion in a must-win moment, in a you have to keep this team going moment. They both show up. Kevin Love with 12 and 4.

And I got to be honest, he had that string of eight straight and it was the third quarter. He single-handedly is keeping the Miami Heat alive. A guy with the same color hair as George, Danny Ocean Clooney, is keeping the Miami Heat from getting mad in 21 routed, give up the sticks, dude.

That Kevin Loves gives you 12 and 4. Kyle Lowry gives you 13, 7 and 3. Kyle Lowry by NBA age is at Sizzler at 430, collecting a free dinner with a coupon, with a Jack Klompis coupon for goodness effing sake. I am so absolutely furious. And look, the moment has clearly proven to be too big. And everyone is going to say seven undrafted players, Alex, what do you expect?

And I got to be honest, Jerry, you're absolutely right. I'm sitting here almost with a girl that I think is perfect for me. And all my friends are going, are you not seeing? what we are watching? I mean, we're talking about a talk. You are infatuated with this girl. You absolutely do not love her because if you loved her, you'd wrap your arms around her after a game for performance like this.

And I want to walk out of the marriage right now with the Miami Heat. Now, I'm not going to bail on them. I have futures tickets. We've lost a lot. of our 233 to make 11,000 last series on this one. We've lost some shekels. We have gone down. Now, our same game parlay over 20 to 1 yesterday,

four legs hit. Got a couple of shoutouts on Twitter. If you tailed me on my props in the last couple games, albeit on the wrong Miami Heat side dog at home, call me NFL crazy taking the three and a half, I was pretty money on the props. absolutely dialed. Matter of fact, four of them

I felt great about. The one that didn't hit was Michael Porter Jr. I thought the value of 701 double double was worth it plus 175A boards without getting sidetracked. I just kept seeing a Miami Heat team. And we got to remind ourselves. At this point,

and a lot of people, and I talked about this on my AMP, MoneyLine Monaco, live streams, check them out, follow me on Amazon AMP, doing daily live streams, chopping it up with a great community on there. It was a team that got past Janice and Milwaukee, a gritty, relatively deep, yeah, I said it, New York Knicks team and a Boston Celtics team that had represented the east of previous year.

We would almost be naive to not think that Denver, who really you could make a case as the worst defense of the previous three I just mentioned. because you're going through Boudon Hulzer, Tibido, and the Celtics, defensively speaking, you would have thought that Miami would have been more competitive to this point. Jimmy Butler, who gives you 25, 7, and 7,

it doesn't even feel like an impactful stat line. Now, he's got the ankle, but aside from that, we just haven't seen Jimmy Butler, and I want to say it was a legacy defining series. Now, the legacy is there. The run was improbable. They're not there without two, two.

But the reality is we haven't gotten a game three performance that Jamal and Nicola gave us from Jimmy. If anything, the best player on Miami through four games has to be bam out of bi. Another double double moment I told you to take his rebound prop and he cleared it again. The guy has been hitting and taking everything that the defense has given him. We're just not watching what we would have expected in Miami. And you cannot turn the ball over 14 times to Denver six. And on top of that go 8 of 25 from 3 point land while Denver goes 50% hitting 14 threes. And then you get an Aaron Gordon second year.

Orlando Magic on a Tuesday and October type performance. And Bruce Brown wants to let everyone know it ain't Blake Griffin. If you get the joke, if you know, you know, I love you. We're done. We're done. This is the debilitating thing. This is why it's not you. It's me, Costanza.

Because if Aaron Gordon gives you 27, Bruce Brown gives you 21, and you're staring at Nicola and Murray. remind ourselves, Yokic and Jamal had 66 points in game three. All five key starters had 66 points. They actually had more boards to their two name and assist than all five starters in game three.

Go back and look, I've talked that out till I was Blue Man Group in the face. But you look at last night, Friday night, Jamal was off. Now, 12 assists, the guy has been a Danny Dime machine. He's everything Russell Wilson wasn't in Denver last year. As far as delivering the basketball on time, 12 assists. He's got now 10, 10, 10, 10, and 12.

Also a part of my parley. I told you I had to take it. They only gave you 8 and a half assists as an over under everywhere. Take that if you're watching the prop market. But aside the point, you get less than 50 from the two stars of Denver. You're telling yourself, Miami's going to win that game. Here's the scary thing about game three that I said. If I were to tell you Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, KCP, and Michael Porter Jr.

Jr. gave you a combined less than 25 points in game three. You would have said out loud Miami won. They lost by double digits. You're sitting here and I'm telling you. Blind resume. Colin Calhard, the herd segment. Looking at the box score. Yokic Murray.

Yokic gives you four assists another playoff low number for him. Murray gives you 15. They go for less than 50 combined. Are you saying on the road that Denver wins that game? You're not. So what do we have to sit here like a scientist meets a sportscaster

with our conclusion? We have our hypothesis. We have our data. The data tells us we are FU.C. C-K-E-D. We are cooked, Basil, sauced.

Throw me back in the Austin Powers chronologically frozen lab. Bring me back to another year. It's over. Stick a fork in me. If there was ever a Falker circle, a Jack Burns trust with me in the heat,

I'm so far in the RV. Get me out of Tinsletown. I'm done. But I'm not going to give up The Spolster quote gave me hope. Get out of here on this. All we're going to focus on is getting this thing back to the 305.

Get this thing back to Miami and things can shift very quickly. I told the guys, feel whatever you want to feel the night. It's fine. You probably shouldn't sleep tonight any amount of time. I don't think anybody will. We have an incredibly competitive group. We've done everything the hard way. And that's the way it's going to.

have to be done right now again. If LeBron James, a former Miami heat player himself can come back from three on, then look, I'm not going to bail on this team. Now, am I in therapy with Miami? Yes, we broke up, but we broke up like Vanderpump rules, sunset, selling, whatever. for anyone watches, love is blind, any of those. We broke up, we didn't really break up. All right.

I had to get that off my chest to get back to base camp and realize that 3-1, put the Walkman on, put the LBJ shades on. We remember that it has been done. And look, that is the goal. Now there is no more pressure for Miami. They aren't at home having to win because look, that was true about Game 4 last thing. Human nature will tell you if you're not making your shots, desperation, game 4 moment, down to 1, the building is going to be nervous.

It's going to be tantalizing energy. This is human beings. Everyone's going to feel that palpable energy, period. Point blank, nothing you can do about it. Now, now, oddly enough, and I said this exact hypothesis between game six and game seven of the Celtics and the heat, had that moment translate to the finals in a different manner but still sort of similar resurface, here we are again. there's a world where the pendulum of pressure has swung back to Denver. Why? Because they have to close you out at home or they got to go back on the road. And just odds are again, forget that Miami's a great home team.

Odds of anybody closing out on the road versus home, you don't even want to have to go there. If you're a club that has earned a 3-1 game 5 at-home moment, pop the Yokic brothers champagne. But you're going to watch. And I just want you, and I'm going to do another podcast on Monday, so no picks on this one. This is just venting, talking it out, and seeing if it's worth going to 2023 Zoom therapy

with this Miami Heat girl that on date. Because if Denver comes out nervous, and Miami gets a sense of who they were last series, they haven't even really given us a great game. They really haven't. It looks like they're cooked as far as energy. It looks like they're done. That's what I don't get.

That's where the greatest athletes in the world, you're hoping that Jimmy Butler possess that big face coffee mindset because you're supposed to dig deep. You're not supposed to be tired. Yes, your body is tired on June 9th, but your mind has to take over. That's our only shot here. The heat, their body, their body language,

and I'm a body language guy. I'm a huge bi-language guy. And shout out my guy, Draymond Green, because he is too. This team doesn't look like they have any ethos, pathos, but the only thing we have on our side, That's why you have to take Miami plus eight and a half plus nine here in game five and sprinkle on the money line.

You cannot cap desperation. This is a team. This is a person that has nothing to lose in game five. So they're going to go out with pride, with what you would hope Miami heat culture has been all playoffs, and effort, all out effort at that. That's all you can hope. And then the moment, because Denver has not been there. Anyone on this team outside of KCP in a bubble, not a real final.

Sorry, Mickey Mouse. Hasn't been there in a stadium where you can pop champagne and you blow it. That's our only hope here. Because Miami has shown us they don't have enough. They aren't clearly as talented, but they're not getting the out coaching spolster moment, out executing X's and O's wise. The only really thing Miami had a chance to beat Denver with because Denver's one of the most beautifully crafted teams,

if we're really talking it out. That's only 7-8 deep, but still that's a lot of ads in today's NBA. We've seen in a long time. How well-constructed this Denver team is to give you credit, Denver, it's going to make other teams want to emulate the same. Not quite Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins, Wildcat, let's go do exactly this because Yokic is special and Murray is special. You don't have a ton of these guys in the league.

But the two men, one, two with a quality big and a guy in Murray, both these guys who get others involved, that's what teams are going to look for if Denver goes out and wins this all. Now, I'm not going to give up. You hear me talk about value all the time on a Belmont steak Saturday. Well, the number is 24 to 1 for Miami to come back and win this. Put $10 on. Just put $10 on it. $10 to win $240 back if they pull this off.

The only thing I'll say is that Denver hasn't even given us a $1,000. one through eight, one through seven on their roster complete game. They've won because Miami hasn't got it together. We can hope and bank on the pressure human nature element of game five. Same thing with Boston. I said this exact same thing. Boston's playing back against their wall. Boom, boom, boom.

So this gets back to seven? I mean, yeah, I would I would guess with a one in an eight seed, you would say pressure still on Denver. But at the end of the day, kind of goes back to Miami if it gets to a seven. Long, long way to go till then. But I just wanted to talk all angles out because human nature and psychology here is all we have left. It's all we have. Max Truce forgot how to play basketball. Thanks, bud. Thanks. Appreciate you listening. Moneyline Monaco, Alex Monaco across all platforms. Check me out all week.

Moneyline Monaco, TikTok, Twitter, Alex Monon. come on there. And of course, Amp, listen, we end every show with the most important line of the show. Don't forget to hug your mothers. Have yourself a wonderful weekend. It ain't over till you know who sings. And she is on a water break, baby. Miami Heat until they are done are not all the way out. We're taking the eight and a half in game five. We'll be back on Monday to tell you why. We are going to therapy with the heat and taking a money line. The volume.