The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NBA Free Agency: Will LeBron leave LA? Lillard to Heat + CP3 to Lakers

Episode Date: June 17, 2023

Alex Monaco breaks down the NBA offseason and takes a look at some potential NBA futures bets you can fire on just days after the season ended. Monaco takes a look at where a few NBA superstars will land this offseason, including LeBron James, James Harden, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, and Draymond Green. Later, Monaco takes a look at the 2024 NBA championship odds and who discusses which teams have the best value on the board right now. Monaco refuses to leave Heat Island and which other teams does he like? Find out MORE on the Moneyline Monaco Podcast. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. What's better? Christmas or wedding season. I'll tell you what is it. June? Sports. After you turn the NBA NHL page, welcome in to another sports gambling with MoneyL Monaco episode, Alex Monaco, here with you on a wonderful Friday.

June 16th here. SoCal summer if you're there. Northeast summer if you're here. Midwest Shytown. the South. Either way, vitamin D humming. Baseball's in the air. But you know what? Today's episode, we're going to pull off on a pit stop. We love to do this right after seasons. I did a couple of videos for it for volume. NBA 2023, 2024 futures bets. And most notably and most interestingly, offseason NBA moves.

We're going to discuss a couple players, a couple scenarios, because here's the thing. People don't know this in the world of betting. You, it doesn't matter if it's the NFL, the MLB, the NBA, NHL, you can fire on futures and make money without games even having been played. That's right.

Let me toss that little nugglet into your post nugglets win. the NBA championship Noggin. That is right. So perfect example here because we're going to discuss some NBA potential scenarios that I'm just going to throw out to you. And we will sit back and open forum, Socratic seminar discuss, do we fire? Do we not fire?

Because last year, here is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Right before Russell Wilson went to the Denver Broncos. They were upside over. They were well over 30 to 1 to win it all. I don't know if it was 40 to 1. As we know, they were coming off an unthinkable season. Not a lot of positive going for Orange Crush coming off of the season before Rust. Russ gets traded.

The odds move. In fact, I remember it vividly. The odds were cut in half. I think it might have been 3,200 to 1,600. If you had put $100 down at $3,200, sliced down to $1,600, you made yourself money. No games were played. No schedule week-to-week line movement changing the market in that regard.

No, this is July, August, off-season movement. This is what is exciting. Now, it does work both ways. I actually bet on it the other way. I didn't think Aaron Rogers actually wanted. it out of his Green Bay marriage. So you put $100 on the Packers with Aaron Rogers. He leaves.

You're losing. It's now down to, I believe, $42 to cash out if you were on the Packers. So it does work both ways. But I give you that NFL example to bring it back to the NBA because James Hardin, Chris Paul, we have Damien Lillard, every Portland Trailblazer offseason in the rumor mill being discussed. Kyrie Irving in that world being discussed. LeBron James,

is it not being discussed? And I actually have betting favorites in front of me by way of bet online. And again, pending where you shop, you can go offshore with this. Not every book, Draft King's Fanduel, bet MGM, Seasers in the main world of betting

has these options. Sometimes you've got to go to a bet online. But there are some betting favorites to land notable players via this site. So we're going to talk out some of these to be true, some of these not. Now, I got to be honest, Chris Paul to go to the Spurs as the betting favorite here via Bet Online. I don't even want to entertain Chris Paul to the Spurs.

I got to be honest. If Chris Paul goes to the Spurs, it's for another paycheck. Oh, it's to mentor, Victor Wembe, Yama. No, it's not. winning the NBA championship next year. Chris Paul is already showing up at Sizzler or Sue Plantation or pick an early hometown buffet

at 4.30 to collect his Kyle Lowry dinner. It's back nine on the golf course Chris Paul time. If the guy and I have to be honest here and somebody's got to say it, you're literally laying on a mountain of state farm insurance checks. You don't have enough money.

didn't handle your money right. You want to go after your money and end a championship list Hall of Fame career known as the guy that can't stay healthy in the playoffs. Sure, go ahead. Go to Spurs. But I'm going to talk out some Chris Paul scenarios. I actually like for him to still have a chance at a ring. We'll get to him in a little bit.

James Harden has the ability to shift the league. He can choose a contender and not a huge. Houston Rocket. Let me go back to where I'm comfortable, cozy, no pressure to win. Everybody loves me. They're in a rebuild. You go to Houston. All right.

You're going to disappear again as well into a championship list back nine on the golf course in the NBA world. If you're James Hardin. You just had two 40-point games, one with no one beat against the Celtics on a Natty TV stage in the Eastern in the second round. of the Eastern Conference playoffs. You're going to go to Rockets who are in a lottery, ping pong ball, June? Half hour program? Come on.

Jerry? So those are the top guys. Kyrie, Chris Paul, James Hard. Where do they want to go? Now, there's some player options out there that are interesting players. Now, this isn't the shield. This is the NBA.

If a star wants to go somewhere, typically dependent on who, dependent on who that star is, you have an opportunity to get what you want. Ask and you shall receive. Not really the case with most NBA guys. I'm fascinated to see like a Draymond Green with a player option.

His odds are to land with the Utah Jazz, believe it or not, of all people. That is going to be. fascinating. How about Chris Middleton player option as well to the Thunder via BetOnline as the team favorite to Landon? Brooke Lopez to the Rockets is another interesting one. DeAngelo Russell to the Suns outside of that I don't see anything particularly appetizing worth talking out that could be realistic except except one other rumor in the mill and we will talk it out. And it is Trey Young because word on the street is he might want to request a trade in

lead. Now, Trey Young is not in a scenario like Chris Paul or Kyrie Irving. I'll triple check it here. But looking at the Atlanta Hawks, he ain't. He ain't a free agent this year. I don't see him according to ESPN 2024, even player or restricted. I see DeJante Murray free. up before Trey Young, but we've seen most notably, not contractually with Trey Young. He had a reason for the McMillan firing. He's been disliked otherwise within the Atlanta Hawks organization. These are all rumors, right? But something to think about.

But let's get to something actionable. And I want to throw out the lines to you before we dive in here. Just looking at, we're going to use Fandul, the NBA championship numbers to win next year. Nuggets are plus 460. The Bucks are plus 490. the Celtics are third at five to one. You got the suns at seven to one. Then it's the Warriors, Sixers, Lakers, Heat, and everybody else.

So Nuggets, Box, Celtics, one, two, three, sons, warriors, sixers. And then it's the Lakers and the Heat. Now, the Lakers and the Heat, I want to start there. I want to start on the bottom because 17 to 1 and 18 to 1. Two teams. Now, let's talk this out because we know the NBA to be an exhausting regular season. We know it to be long,

but we also know it to be a little telling as far as once the all-star break happens and post-all-Star break basketball in Susan. Sometimes teams like the Lakers, Rob Polinka mix it up, they reshuffle the deck, they added in a ton of new pieces. DeAngelo Russell being the most notable one, Rui Hachamuro right there behind him.

to reshuffle the deck. But ultimately, look, you see who's taking this regular season seriously early, Denver last year, Sacramento, Memphis in the West, right? Those three teams took the regular season serious. So did the Boston Celtics. It's why they had home court took it very seriously. I would give Philadelphia credit. They took it seriously. They had an MVP on their roster for goodness sakes.

These teams that took the regular season seriously were rewarded. Nuggets obviously being at the top of the mountain with a payoff. Now, I've heard Colin talk about this. I've heard Nick Wright talk about this. Interesting narrative dialogue around the NBA and what you need to craft a championship team. We came. We're a little millennial smartphone numb to this big three superstar Wade Bosch, LeBron, Heidel situation that really is kind of in the rearview mirror.

I mean, you look at, and Colin pointed out, excellent example, last couple of champions here, you know, you need one stop. Steph Curry was the one star with an unbelievable supporting cast that you can make a case. Of course, Clay is an all-star. Draymond is an all-star. So that's the one example in the last five years. I don't love for the narrative.

It still works because Curry's the one guy, but it's more to look at the Raptors with Kauai, being the one dude. Then you had Siakum and Lowry. This is Colin, I'm echoing Colin's comments here over Thursday's monologue, which was actually very interesting. Got you to think. Kawhi did it with just him. Lowry and Siakum is supporting cast, Markasaw, among others. You saw this year, Yokic did it. And I would say Jamal Murray came into his own and he's an all star. I think we have to put some respect on his names on Birdman respect. Has a chance to be a superstar. If he can continue on this past,

But to that point, and it was really the same point with the box, Janus is your star, Yokic is your star, Kauai's your star, you need three competent, serviceable pieces that can absolutely, to the utmost ability, cater to and add value to your number one. Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, really you put MPJ and Aaron in that three spot together. I'm not sure who the exact three would be. But either way, a perfect one, two, three for there.

You clearly saw it with Drew never takes a holiday and Malcolm Middleton. Malcolm in the Middleton, my guy. And, you also saw it with Lowry, Seaccom, and Kyle. Lowry with Kauai. So it is feasible, right? And we see how a team does it. And if you're not in the NFL coming off Patrick Mahomes special, no one is going to get a Patrick Mahomes.

how do you replicate it? Well, how many Yokic's are there in the league? How many Nikolaiyokages are there? A guy that rather ride horses than play ball and still cooks your favorite center's favorite center. How many guys are there to build around like that who are reliable, healthy, team-centric, ego-less? This is really where I have to talk out my thinking

of what a championship basketball team possesses. Everything the Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors teams of the last two years have shown us is the only way to win in today's NBA. You don't believe me? Tell me why. Now, Memphis had a couple of bigs hurt, but a Memphis Grizzlies or a Boston Celtics, every bit of a roster that most of these rosters are. Now, I'm not saying the Grizzlies are the Nuggets roster. It's not close.

But the Grizzlies had seven, eight, guys behind a star jaw. Now they were distracted by off season. Same thing with the Celtics. You look at Tatum and Brown and now they brought in Brogden to fix that no point guard situation. It wasn't

fully hashed out. Obviously Brogden hurts himself in the middle of that series against the heat doesn't help anybody. But I'm getting all of that out to say team fit and style

of play is to me at the top of just getting another name. Because if James Hardin, for example, James Hardin could go to five teams that made the playoffs and maybe even deep into the playoffs. And he's not going to change the narrative. Why? Because of fit? Because we know who James Hardin is. Colin spoke about it.

He compared Jimmy Buckets to James Hard. James Hardin's a me guy in the regular season. Look at me. Look at me MVP. Let me pad my stats and then go to you know where after the game. Jimmy Buckets is I'll be great like we've seen in April, May, and sometimes June. Who are the teams that have the Nicola Yokich one piece or the one two Yokic Murray piece that if you added a shape shifting three, you have value.

Let's get into it here. finally. I think the first stop we have to take a look at is the Miami Heat. It's clearly in the rumor mill, but I've already purchased it. And it's gone down. But Miami at 18.01 and 7 to 1 to win the east and overall the ship, look, you look at their free agent situation. Struce is on the market likely gone.

I would imagine he gets his bag. Now, Struis is a maybe because Struis had such a bad finals. might cower down, stay there and take a home count, Pat Riley discount. Gabe Vincent is so gone. It's not even funny. Unless they want to give Gabe Vincent $15 million a year, he is G-O-N-E. Gabe Vincent is about his bag, deserves it, rightfully so gone. So you have a point guard potentially gone.

Kevin Love is also an unrestricted free agent. He could come back, you know. Ed's is an interesting guy. I'd like to see Kevin Love on the Lakers back with LeBron in a selfish world. I think he is actually an impactful piece as a backup role player off the bench on a championship contender like we saw. Kevin Love if Caleb Martin, Struz, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson want to be a little more consistent was a relatively clutch, particularly in that game four when he had 12 and 4, not far removed from a Kevin Love outing, where he was impactful. But looking at this heat team,

17 to 1, Broncos example, let's say, and June 22nd would probably be the move, right? The NBA draft where the Blazers have the three spot. Now, it's going to go Wembenyama at the sports book. I talked it out earlier. You have a coin flip between Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller to go to the Hornets before the Blazers are on the clock.

The Hornets have mismanaged their draft. picks so poorly. I imagine they're going to fumble this. Now, I spoke how I think they're going to nibble on the more glamorous pick, Scoot Henderson. I think 3 and D Brandon Miller fits a little more in today's NBA. As far as all NBA teams would want that kind of a guy. I think he's kind of got a Mikalbredges type style where he can end up being 15, 20 points

per game. Play real defense comes from that Nate Oats world. So all that to say, back to this Lillard piece, they got options. If they want to blow it up or they want to do a sign and trade here, we got options with Miami staring them right in the face. You could do a number of things. Now, I'm not super in the weeds guy with the cap. I know we have a new CBA.

That's part of why CP3 had his contract paid out half and likely cut by June 28th. Because of this new CBA, it's going to put a pinch on teams like the sons, the warriors that overpay for these plays. players. But this heat team that has not embellished the cap leaned on every kind of tax there is. They are exactly what we've heard the Nick Wrights, the Collins talk about, the landing spot, the ideal place for Damien Lillard. I think Damian Lillard, to the heat, is so perfect on so many levels. And that would be Gabe Vincent's gone. You know, you're not resigning a couple of these guys. that are on on the team. Tyler,

Hero was out, 20 points per game, God. You start telling yourself out loud. Damien Lillard, Jimmy Butler, you don't, he does, bam out of bio, Tyler Hero, and then you mix and mingle that. Max Trues comes back,

he's starting. If he isn't, maybe it's a Duncan Robinson getting that promotion. Either way, we have to with what Miami has done and say this out loud. Miami has the most playoff wins since the bubble with Jimmy Butler of a new player on their team since the bubble.

They've been the most consistent playoff team in the last four years in the wins loss category. That has to be appetizing for some sort of destination. And I think Pat Riley, Spolster and the boys are sitting here and saying they have to make a move to get over the hump. They're not going to beat Denver if they run it. back. They're just not going to be Denver. Trust me, I was just in a relationship with the 2023 Miami Heat. I broke up with them this week. And I am telling you, if they go to therapy and they work on themselves, and maybe they call their relatives once or twice more on a Sunday, I will get back with them. I.e. if they get Dame Lillard, you have to consider it. I'm doing,

I'm putting money in June on next year's NBA finals on the Miami Heat because I think they're going to make a splash. Now let's pivot to the second team I'm talking out here. This LA Lakers Club, 17 to 1, and I'm all over this Lakers roster here. DeLo, gone. Don't come back. We don't want you. Lonnie Walker's a free agent, interesting. Dennis the Menace, Troy Brown, team option for Beasley, restricted and very, very, very.

huge news for Rui Hachamura and Austin Reeves both restricted. Now, probably, probably Reeves is going to get a bag. I would imagine. They want to either lock him up or use him as trade bait. But this is the last year. This is the last year for the Lakers to try to run it back with LeBron and AD. It ain't going to happen again after this. It's just not.

We know how LeBron ticks. We know how AD's I robot body is built. It ain't any other year than next. I'm looking at this rumor mill. It's saying LeBron's future's odds to land anywhere if a trade happened would be the maps. What? No, no, no, no, no. He ain't going anywhere, all right?

He's going to retire for a year off to rest of the body for Brony or not. Ronnie may like playing in the USC system for two years and not one. I mean, it's worth thinking that LeBron James, staying with the Lakers, GM LeBron, who finally got what he wanted a little bit, Russ off the team after it was, it was his go-to, but ultimately got him off the team to get a little bit of momentum GM-wise, not a ton, but I would say the most momentum he had as a player GM that we joke since he crafted the championship Cavs team. So say this out loud.

because Chris Paul in a completely different NBA David Stern MBA was blocked to come to the Lakers. If Chris Paul comes to the Lakers, just hear me out. And it's to echo what Nick Wright said. Get on your Popovich. You don't need to run them down the regular season.

LeBron, Kareem, that whole record last year, he wanted to engage in the regular season. This year, Larry Lange. Lamp, take 22 Kauai games off, take 30 games off. The Lakers just need to get into the playoffs with a LeBron that is not exhausted. You saw how exhausted. His body subconsciously didn't even want a game five. He did it.

If Chris Paul comes to this team and we forget because Chris Paul got injured again, I was so fascinated to see what Chris Paul would have done in that playoffs against the He would come to this team. He would do the same system as LeBron. Rest, restore, rest, restore like a starting pitcher, but not even needing like Justin Verlander on the Mets this year to do anything crazy in the regular season. Have a solid 15, 20 starts. Get us to the postseason.

Rest your bod for the postseason. I'm saying to you, Chris Paul LeBron James, Rui Hachamura, Austin Reeves, and Anthony Davis take the court. and they are healthy in a game to first of four, best of seven, you don't think that's worth a 17 to one sprinkle before it happens. There isn't any logical reason to tell me outside of injuries otherwise. Now, that is the immediate pushback. Chris Paul's washed.

Chris Paul's injured. He's never going to be healthy. Chris Paul still, still is ridiculously productive. And remind ourselves, he didn't play a ton of basketball this season. He really didn't. He was still fourth an assist in the entire league. He put up just under 14 points per game, still had almost five rebounds per. So he's averaging 14 and 9, and you're telling me, with his IQ and his situation,

situational basketball acumen towards the end of a season. And amidst a playoff series isn't going to be valuable to a LeBron. Has LeBron ever even had a second team with a basketball coach

on the court with the IQ that he has? Dwayne Wade's close. Dwayne Wade is not Chris Paul as far as bad. You can make a case. Chris Paul and LeBron James together would be the most sick vicious basketball IQ

still a little bit left in the tank one, two you've ever seen you've ever seen Chris Paul the Lakers has to be in your head it's not going to move the line like Dame to the heat will but it will move the line

it will absolutely move the line now there's rumors that Trey Young goes to the Lakers that shifts the team too much Trey Young's not in the same contract scenario as Chris Paul he's not in the same career trajectory is Chris Paul right now. One's on the front nine, one's on the back nine.

But to get back to just that fit, right? I'm looking and I know this sounds outrageous at the New York Knicks at 50 to 1. Now, Bradley Beale were seeing a couple of huge notable Knicks writers commenting that

the Knicks have eyed Bradley Beal far past just this last week. Bradley Beal on the Knicks would be enormous. Would Bradley Buell on the Knicks make them a championship contender? I'm going to say no.

But what I am going to say is that Bradley Biel to the Knicks could mean the first move of a second. Now, I'm not saying I don't know a guy who knows a guy, but I just want to point out as rumors swirl that the Knicks are going to land Westbrook. Now, the Knicks are well constructed now. The next Leon Rose, this team is built for the playoffs and built for tough.

They will bring Josh Hart back to keep Brunson happy, huge quality piece. This team has depth, has draft picks, has options. They could do away with Randall and RJ Barrett if they wanted to go out and land an enormous, enormous splash. I've heard rumors of Carl Anthony Towns. I've even heard small baby, tiny, tiny rumors of Joel M.B. With the tiniest far away away, I cannot grab it, but I can still see it. Yonest rumors.

Look, it's the Big Apple. The Knicks have not won a playoff series in a decade before this season. Now, I host a show The Better Half Hour on MSG Network. So, yes, I have a 10, 15% homer in me when I talk this out with you. But what I don't have a homer in me with is that this Knicks team, since Tommy Tibbs went to a nine-man rotation on December 5th. I remember it like Rayman off the dome. No notes needed. They were top five in offensive efficiency. They were top five in points per game. They were top five in record.

From December 5th to the playoffs start, the New York Knicks had a top five several key number output. Jalen Brunson also remind yourself was criminally underpaid. They have options. They say it out there. girls are interested in you or none. You've got options or you got Turtle season two. Costanza, I got to do the opposite, flip everything around and make it work. This team, the New York Knicks, has got a couple of women interested in them. I'm just saying, I'm just saying 50 to 1, 50 to 1 to win it all.

And I'm not saying they're doing it, but 50 to 1 and 18 no one. 1 in the east, if they land someone big or a couple people, or they completely shuffle the deck, you're going to make money on that. It's going down. 50 to 1? Could you imagine them landing? Carl, Joel, Janice, any of them? Even Bradley Beale will lower it a little.

This is an exciting time for the Knicks. And somebody, I think, you have to look out from afar. And the very last team I do want to mention and talk out. Now, this is going to sound like, yeah, how's that going to work? Where are they really going anywhere? Ladies and gentlemen, you realize that the Denver Nuggets were 21 to 1 last year to win it all. They're now plus 450.

21 to 1. That means they were a long time coming, but they really weren't. and this was a team in Denver that had a couple of key pieces. Now, I want to just talk this out for a second. The last really team I even like as a Laker, I don't like this team growing up. But the Sacramento Kings with the coach of the year returning, with Aaron Fox, with Subonis, Akigin Murray, there's enough interesting. pieces and momentum awful last year.

Now you go to the guys that can actually choose where to go. Obviously, Hardin has a player option. Kyrie Irving's probably not going to land on a Kings. Don't think he would be a great fit either. Christoph Porzengis is out there on a player option. He's somebody that's interesting. Here's another piece that's wide open and can choose anywhere about the cabin to land.

Freddie Van Fleet can pick wherever he wants to go. Now, it could get real sick with it in L.A. And the Lakers could get Chris Paul and Fred Van Fleet. I know that sounds crowded. It really doesn't when Dennis and DeAngelo are both gone. So Fred Van Fleet is somebody. He could choose the Kings. The Kings could overpay him.

And it could be a fascinating fit there as well. I think Fred Van Fleet, I mean, he's a. He's a guy that obviously is a point guard, but he has a shoot. He's got a shooting guard mentality, right? A guy that had 19 and 7, he's a score. He's a point guard, but he's a score. So I could see Chris Middleton, who has a player option, probably be a better idea than a Freddie Van Fleet.

But a Jeremy Grant, also a Vucevich, those guys are both open for. agents, a Brooke Lopez, same thing. If the Kings decided to spend on a couple of those guys, like they go out and they get a couple of those guys, I mean, are we not looking at the Kings here as somebody value-wise that could make a splash? They're 18 to 1 to win the West. To win it all, they're, I got to go, I got to go show more here because they're still not giving them love.

I'm looking all the way down to win it all, 45 to 1. 45 to 1. This is what I'm saying. I'm getting off the mic now. There's a couple of teams, Miami, New York, Sacramento, and yes, the Lakers are not the, they're the least value of this. But those three teams, to me, and we could come back to this podcast in a couple of weeks and say to ourselves,

money line monica there were a couple of dudes because again not a huge NBA off season but we are in the theme of fit what is the fit going to be this off season for certain players on certain teams the Denver Nuggets showed us it's about not being the man it's just about supporting the man and guess what you're going to be the man some games I'm going to be the man some games To me, I think the closest teams to figuring that out, two of those teams for sure are Miami and a Sacramento Kings. Just kings are young. Kings are very young. But Deerrin Fox isn't that young. So bonus isn't that young. That's when you got to remind yourself, they're young in maturation by way of not having a playoff wins since 06.

But my goodness, are they not that young as far as well? They're not babies. They're not pubs. De Aaron Fox has been cooking for seven, eight years. Sabonis has been on three teams. Has you been on four? Not at four teams. Supposed to sneakily been on the thunder,

the Pacers. I mean, come on. So I'm out of here. Just getting you to critically think. It's a week before the draft. If Lillard gets dealt, likely will go to a Miami heat type. team. Maybe he would go to a bucks type team, but I just, Drew Holiday is still so solid. I don't

think that's where their focus is. I think their focus is on, are we bringing Brooke Lopez back? Are we, what are we doing with this Middleton player option? I would really turn your attention to Dame going to the hottest team in the game right now, the Miami Heat. And you have a chance to bet on them before all this happens. And that Denver Broncos example from last year is your perfect, perfect note. So I'm out of here. Appreciate all of you. Money, line, Monaco. A little bit of fun there. Talking out some speculation.

Appreciate you. And as always, don't forget, dog your mothers. We'll see you next week. Download the free Angie mobile app today or visit Angie.com. A.g.i.com. This is a perfect site for someone like myself who had to move cross country working in the sports world on a dime. I'm talking about handy people, landscaping, plumbing, electrical, remodeling.

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