The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NBA Playoff Bets: Celtics survive, will they come back from down 3-0?

Episode Date: May 27, 2023

Alex Monaco reacts to the Celtics surviving elimination again in Game 5 against the Miami Heat. Monaco discusses what the Celtics have been doing in the last 2 games to stay alive, and what the Heat need to do to finally end Boston's season. Monaco explains why the Heat will come out much stronger in Game 6 and what they've been missing the last couple of games. Later, Monaco discusses why he's not afraid of the Celtics and why he's not cashing out any of his big bets on the Heat. Will Boston become the first NBA team to come back from down 3-0 to win a playoff series? #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. What's up, everybody. Alex Monaco here. Thank you for watching the Moneyline Monaco podcast on the Volume Sports YouTube channel. We are live Monday, Wednesday, Friday, wherever you get your pods. We are on Amazon Amp streaming Monday through Friday making picks, making bets. It's us first though books. I'm trying to win with you.

So come follow me at Moneyline, Monaco. Let's win together. Here we go. So you're Lloyd Christmas. telling me there's a dumbed, dumber chance. Welcome in to a lively, vibrant, absolutely fired up.

Might be a little wedding crashers rule number six, drawing attention to myself in a you know what way, because I took the Miami in game five with the eight and a half, thought they would close it out, where Alex couldn't have been more off. Welcome in to another money line, Monaco weekend pod, Alex Monica with you, absolutely fired up. The pockets are light.

The stomach is ready for a celebratory weekend. We have Sunday basketball, game six, history looming as we know. No team ever. Does it matter the moment within the playoffs, the finals pick around any round, has Nata, not once. Come back from 3-0 down. Here comes the Boston Celtics on Natty TV Thursday night. What a performance.

An absolute domination. A let you know we are going back to Ace Ventura Land to wrap this up. Or extend it to come back to our house for a seven dance, which I got to be honest. You're watching games 1 through 3, and you're just reminding yourself this Boston Celtics team had to wrap up Atlanta in 6, took a rather dysfunctional Philly team to 7. Had to go down 3-2. And win a game 6th quarter to even get to this moment, they go down 3-0. We think it's an absolute Larry Locke for Miami to wrap this up with time to Larry David Lam.

before they get adjusted to some mile high basketball altitude. And then what happens? A desperation Boston Celtics team, Joe Missoula being called out, Jalen Brown, Jason Tatum, the role players. Marcus Smart didn't even really have a great series thus far until game five. They took it all in. They embodied the persona of Boston,

a strong, gritty chip on your shoulder. championship pedigree town, a very prideful sports city, rightfully so. And here we are with an ironic situation. You had Tommy Brady coming back from 283 against the Falcons. You had the Red Sox down 3-0 to the Yankees. Ironically, A-Rod and Jeter. What are you doing? Connecting the sign sitting courtside in game four reminding us the Red Sox came down

3-0. Shout out my guy, Dave Roberts, stealing a bag, one by one, brick by brick. getting back from down to Rio, and here we have the Boston Celtics. But we take it back before we look ahead to really the story of what happened in game five. And it was the first quarter. And I was a little worried that this would happen. Now, equal news on both sides. Brogden did suit up. I'd say Gabe Vincent was more of a loss for the heat than Brogden was with this forearm situation to his shooting arm to the Celtics.

Brogden obviously was non-existent, two games in a row. He's hurt. He is absolutely playing hurt, a decoy, and just a facilitator at this point with a little bit of an energizer, bunnyness off the bench. Outside of that, Malcolm Brogden will not be draining threes hit in 15. It's going to require what happened on Thursday night with the role players. Now, this has happened on both sides. I sat here and tried to sell you a car. you may or may not needed when it came to game five, which was the timing of the win and the loss in South Beach.

And would you be looking at the painting the same way? If the Celtics had one game three and lost game four, would we be feeling the same momentous way headed into game five in Boston like the Celtics had some hope? And that's the bag of goods. I was genuinely feeling I was selling myself and the wonderful audience we have here on volume sports. selling them. But it was in my heart of hearts. I watched this Miami team again. Host a New York show here.

The Knicks and the heat. I was in the garden. I got to watch this team in person. They are resilient. They are egoless. They are a company culture that is coached up. There's a lot of things that you didn't see that almost disappeared in game four and five that we have to remind ourselves.

But looking at the storyline of game five, it's quite simple. You come out and you. you give up a 35, 20 first quarter start, that could not have been a worst start. We're talking about a 16-1 run in the first quarter. What are we doing? Now, it's all fun in games when Jimmy Butler is saying, we're going to throw on country music, drink beers, and enjoy ourselves to get ready for game five. No, it's not acceptable.

when you come out and you lay a 16 to 1. This is not 2K. This is real life. We got real money on this, people. I mean, it was ridiculous. Yes, no Gabe Vinson, but you got championship Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, Bam, at a bio,

plenty of DOG, plenty of championship pedigree on the court with playoff acumen, and you saw none of it. Absolutely. Zip, Zilch, Nada. Miami, 16 turnovers to Boston's 9, 10 of which happened in the first half.

13 steals for Boston to Miami's humble 6. Double the blocks. Might I mention, four lads, 20 points or more. Marcus Smart and Derek White, 10, 3-pointers between the two of them. Serenity now, Jerry. It was the perfect George Clooney. storm mediocre movie i'd be honestly ending wasn't that great this was to me it has to be a one-off

game now i i make these two movie references in lieu of having a short-term memory when you go to the book when you talk sports betting when you bet you got to be either 10 second tom from 51st dates hi i'm tom hi i'm tom hi nice to meet you i'm tom what's your name i forgot already or you got a men in black, which is pull out the whatever little thermometer they had, forget it ever happened. Forget game five ever happened because this exact game, almost to a T, happened in game three, 128, 102, the worst Boston playoff loss since, oh, by the way, 2018 and the exact script for that Shalaki was a perfect Celtics game 5-esque script.

Six guys in double figures. And you can look at game three, you can look at game one. Two excellent game scripts to show you what Miami's going to need to do. I'm expecting Gabe Vincent to shoot up. Modern 2023 medicine, wake up, sack up, strap the shoe on a little extra tight bud and get in the game. Okay? Get in the game.

We need game Vincent if Miami's going to close it out. Now, I have four futures tickets on the heat. I got them at 37 to one solo. I got a $25 to win $4,000 on the nuggets and the heat to meet, to meet. to meet in the championship. I got it twice. All right. I've sat here on four tickets and asked myself,

do I want to cash out a lot, a lot of money going back into my sports book. If the heat win, I'm sitting here telling you I'm not wavering. I am not going anywhere. This is game set. Miami has to win. The hedging is too late.

You look at the series prices. This one, from Boston plus 750 down to plus 220-ish. This is a coin flip. It is insulting to what is happening

in the series from a future's perspective. Insulting yet again. But clearly whether there's history not on their side or not, which clearly there isn't, the Boston Celtics seem at the Vegas sports book

to be an appetizing play. Now, you always have to ask yourself, is Vegas just luring me in? Have a cookie for breakfast. Have some fruity pebbles before you have a banana. I don't know. Have a milkshake at 10 a.m. I'm looking at it.

And it's a three point game six spread. It's a fascinating futures number. The futures, listen to this. They hear five to one to win the finals, six to one now. The Celtics show plus 290 down 3-2. It's a pick-um plus 110 minus 130 of two chances. It's never been done in history. I would make it educated guess here.

We've never seen this kind of a number with a team down with this kind of history, not on their side. Boston has to go to Miami win, go back home, win, four in a row. Let me say this because we do the research so you don't have to. Miami has not lost three games in a row since mid-March, since my San Diego State Aztecs were Dutcher making a how-you-do and run Matt Bradley. That's how long ago. This Miami heat team has dropped three straight. Now, I did sell you on the fact that Miami hadn't lost two straight in the playoffs, all playoffs, when I went in on them with the eight

and a half and the double Costanza dip for game five. But they still know. something much different for game six that they clearly could not have on their back on their side for game five, which was home court, which was settling back in. And three two, it is worth bringing up how you get to three two. Is this Celtics team really who we've seen them be in the last two games? Is it really? We're hearing Jalen Brown isn't 100% healthy. we're hearing obviously Malcolm Brogden is not healthy.

We're seeing on this box score, I mean, let me repeat. Marcus Smart in this series at 7, 8, 13, and 11 from a points perspective. No threes. One three, two threes on his resume. He goes ballistic for four and an efficient over 20 evening. Derek White's had a good series for his numbers. Excellent series. But he hasn't had more than three threes.

I mean, come on. This dude gets off for six, for six. Marcus Smart and Derek White gave you 10 three pointers. That ain't going to happen again. Go back to game three, 128, 102, the Gabe Vincent Career High 29 night, where Duncan gave you 22, where Jimmy only gave you 16 and bam gave you 13, 29 between the two of them. Sort of embodied what Jalen and Jason gave you in this full on role playing support system they got.

They finally got it. And it is interesting. Tatum would have had a triple double had. He got his quota and rebounds in game five. He was deferring. He was clearly driving, drawing two, dishing. This is what Boston did to Miami. they pulled a Miami on their own club with excellent,

excellent ball smothering defense, which you have to give them credit for out the gate to win that quarter to win that first quarter by 15. You also have to love the attacking. And this is basketball. I've said it. I'll say it again. Great defense leads to easier offense transition. Bockets, guys getting open.

You don't have time for a well-coached Miami team to get set. We also know that Spolster's been throwing the zone at interesting strategic times in the series and all playoffs. And there was a little bit of a moment there. I believe it was in that second quarter where, yes, obviously this was a Miami Heat team that just got outplayed the whole four quarters. But I mean, you look at the box score and Miami only lost the second quarter by a bucket. They lost the third quarter by a point and they won the fourth quarter. So yes, they lose by 13. The spread was never close,

yet it was only four and a half points off from the actual closing line. But the Celtics won the game in the first quarter. So who is going to step up as we get into game six and give you our pick? How are they going to do it? What is going to be necessary? Well, it's in the pudding. Two elements. Now, this was the situation,

the Sun's Nugget series. The Sun just weren't taking threes. I don't know what happened with Miami's game plan last night. Halftime comes in. Boston had taken 25-3-pointers to Miami's 11. Ladies and gentlemen, let me repeat that. Just attempts. Now, I'm going to sound like a broken record,

but yes, this Boston team has had two losses all season with 38 freaking wins, regular season and post when they shoot over 40% from three. They shot over 40% from three in game five. They did it in game four. This is as simple as that. They hit their threes, they win.

They don't, they get smoked. But 10 first half turnovers for Miami with 11, three-pointers taken to Boston's 25 and half those turnovers. you're down 61-44, you're getting boat raced. It's over. It's over at that point. Now, Miami's a resilient team that never really gives up. They got it so many times to 10 to 12 to 10.

Matter of fact, you could have gotten 17 and a half live, which ended up being an easy cover. This also happens in NBA too, for what it's worth. You saw this. It happens in the regular season all the time. A team wins three quarters, the first three-quarter. and they don't win the fourth quarter. And there's value on the team losing in the fourth quarter.

It's a weird thing. It doesn't make any logical sense. Just something to note. Probably won't pop up again. Maybe, though, maybe Miami wins quarters one through three in game six. And we see Boston win game four just for that little nugget. But this was a Boston team that came off their worst loss. Worst loss to the heat in Boston franchise history.

A team that had to go in, go into Miami knowing this was a team that had won eight home games in a row that had covered five games straight against Boston, up three, oh, psychological edge, trends, betting edge, every corner you turn edge, knowing that the C starters had the worst net rating in the series through three games. Jalen Brown, Horford, Bobby Williams, Tatum, and Smart were all double digits in the negative through three games in this series. That's why you have to a little bit,

10 second time it from these games. You don't even know who's going to show up. Now, if Jimmy in that game one can give you 30, 35, buckets had the worst outing of his playoffs. Of his playoffs, a guy averaged in 28.8 on the run that they're on. Gave you a lackluster below 20 in the teens. Just can't happen. I'm giving you 16 and 8.

I'd like to see. Duncan was superb in the role. He was. Caleb has been steady Eddie all series, all playoffs, really. Kyle Lowry's got to give you more. Kyle Lowry really, really let me down. Didn't even bring particular tenacity on defense that were known to watch him possess and give.

So again, however you want to look at the painting, the heater up by one, going home with 150 previous series on their side to close up shop. If the Boston Celtics do it, I will be absolutely tipping my fro to them. You cannot do anything otherwise. But the Jimmy Butler persona, the Spolstra culture, and the coaching adjustments I expect them to make will to me be enough to win one game.

They have only lost three in a row a handful of times since they turned it into playoff mode and they haven't lost three in a row in over two months. Worth mentioning, it is just as hard to beat a team three times in a row as it is to close them out in four chances. Sit on that, marinate on it. even implore you to meditate on it. I'm Jewish, Italian with Buddhist beliefs, grew up with three religions and two parents. We have to meditate before games like this. This is a simple script. Let Jimmy Butler win this game for you. Be physical. Be aggressive. Play Miami defense.

Close out. Rebound. Don't turn the ball over and hit timely shots. Now that sounds like it is almost not achievable. It is so simple when you really get down to it because of what this Miami team has shown us when they are humming, they just have to implement it. Set the plan, work the plan. Let's go in and cash this ticket. I want to see the Yokits brothers throwing some smoke towards Jimmy Butler. Don't forget, Yokic cheap shot at a Morris twin and Jimmy Butler and the heat literally greeted the Nuggets at their locker room. Go look it up. Then the Yokets brothers said,

you want to throw bubble ray dudley hands? Come on outside. It doesn't get any Vince McMahon better than that. We want it. I'm telling you. You think you want Boston, Denver? You don't. You don't.

You want eight versus one, Cinderella versus the team that's never been there, a pissed off Miami Heat team that has been so close. They deserve. a shot, a shot they will get. I will take Miami in game six on the money line, Monaco. Money line, baby. I'll take the three and we will not cash out.

And I will see you next week. If I see you after the holiday weekend and Boston has won, I will be either going into Forrest Gump mode, walking across the country, castaway beard mode, growing something, Gandalf-esque. I might pick up a book for the first time since Roald Dahl's Matilda.

I don't know. Something drastic will ensue if this heat team does not close them out. Oh, 150 people. Oh, and 150. Holiday weekend. Always hug your mothers. Enjoy your loved ones.

Your extra time off if you have it. And of course, game six. It's a heat culture dub. We are on the herd feed brought to you by volume sports, Amazon, AMP, Moneyline, Monaco, across all platforms, wherever you tune in to get your pods. Don't forget to subscribe rate review. Goes a very long way.

Double dip on hugging your mothers. You can never hug them enough. All right. Enjoy it. Let's go heat baby. Jimmy buckets. We're ordering some big face coffee when he goes to the ship. We'll see you next time.

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