The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NBA Playoff Bets: Grizzlies-Lakers, Kings-Warriors, Cavs-Knicks, Heat-Bucks

Episode Date: April 22, 2023

Alex Monaco breaks down the NBA Playoffs from his unique betting perspective, as he is a red-hot 8-1 in his last 9 NBA picks. The Golden State Warriors bounced back without Draymond Green against the Sacramento Kings. Down 2-1, can the defending champs even the series? Then, Monaco discusses the Lakers-Grizzlies series and is fully confident in LeBron James and Anthony Davis this weekend. Later, Monaco is being cautious in the Bucks-Heat series as long as superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is injured, but he still likes the Bucks to beat the Heat. Finally, he gives you his best bets for the Knicks-Cavs series and a plus-money parlay including the Suns-Clippers. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. Break out the Gryffind Door brooms, baby. It's how you sweep on a Thursday. Welcome to another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline. Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco, fired up live on Amazon AMP as we speak. This is record to the herd feed for the weekend. So, interesting spot, taping on a Friday.

I'm on my way. hours to the world's most famous arena, the New York Knicks. If you've been following me, you know I house a show with MSG, the better half hour. It is an incredible time for New York sports. Exciting time for our network. But I digress. I will be talking Knicks Cabs game three at the end of this Amazon amp. But for the herd, for this weekend's pod, we have to start nowhere.

else then the Golden State Warriors baby it's a dub life what a win what a Thursday night win game three at the chase center you heard it all on the herd Colin talked about it expected a bounce back I expected a bounce back we broke out a nice little two and oh sweep actually if you follow me on amp I gave you three picks for that game I love the a warriors double result third best offense as far as halftime output in the league. They cover the five and a half against the Kings with ease. Curry gets us over four and a half threes. And we saw what we thought we would see from this Warriors Club.

And again, you know the role players are going to come out and step up. Pool with his best game in the last three with 16. Moody of all role players with 13 off the bench. Dante J. right, DeVincenzo with a little shimmy, shimmy, knocked up, yaw, and a curry old school Nash floater in your kings. Shut the beam off on a Thursday noggin. Now, you have to ask yourself as you watch this series.

Why the books hang? Just a smidge of juice on the Kings up to O at around minus 150, 156, pending where you shop. They did that because inevitably they knew one of the biggest discrepancies of home output and away output. This Golden State team is particularly on the defensive end was going to pendulum swing the other way. And that's what you saw.

This King's team shot just 38% from the field, 23% from three. They were outdogged. They had less rebounds. They had half of the steals. They had less blocks. They had more turnovers. Again, we inevitably saw this coming. It's difficult betting a series and not letting you lose.

money, and I did in game one and game two, suck a free Friday, come back to base camp. Give yourself, I say it. It's the 10 second Tom theory from 51st dates. Hi, I'm Tom. Hi, I'm Tom. You forget even what you just did. So if you were able to forget what you just did in Warriors game one and game two backing and come back with a fresh sort of mind, you would have easily hammered the

Warriors. And really, those are triple up spots because if they're going to cover the spread, they're often going to come out and win the half. And more than likely, they're going to win the first quarter. So just a little humble betting lesson, not saying I'm telling you to join me, but you could, I call it the double Kostanza dip. You can triple dip the chip at your family function and really screw everybody. Warriors first quarter, Warriors, first half warriors win the game. But that is the perfect bounce back spot for a team without Draymond. And it felt weird because the line opened around 7, 7.7 and a half for game three, moved down to 5, 5 and a half.

People started talking themselves into the Kings. Draymond's impact isn't often on the stat sheet. It is often micro and macro. He is a player coach. He is a leader. Again, I must echo on what Calhurt says. It is spot on analysis and we're not volume sports bias over. here. It's a four-time decorated champion.

Defensive player of the year, he's got accolades. That goes without saying. But how do we look at this series now? I just want you to know that when this team doesn't get special role-playing production, the Sacramento Kings team, it looks like they are a completely different club. Perfect example. Malik Monk, who had 50 points in the comfort of. of the buzz light year beam in the little purple bubble that nobody can penetrate,

can't even treat E-40, the upper echelons of the NBA royalty in the fan world correctly. Sacramento can't behave themselves. Spare you. I don't like the Kings. I'm in a beef with like the beam community on Twitter. So yeah, I'm doubling down on the Warriors again. We are team Draymond Green, baby. We are team warriors.

I don't want. The Warriors bounced in the playoffs. as a fan, as a better. And again, this King's team, quite frankly, needs to be grown man humbled. All right? This was a fun, cute game one and game two. Remind yourself,

Malik Monk goes one of nine. One of nine. And this team all of a sudden, you're starting to scramble for production because Harrison Barnes had a very good game three. So bonus and Fox, pretty Subonis and Fox Sck numbers.

All right? You're going to now have to dig into Trey Liles, Davion Mitchell, Kevin Herder. These are 2K82s. Let's not get it twisted. So I love the Warriors

in this series still. I'm sitting on, again, a Warriors 9 to 1 West ticket. So I've been on this team far, far before this position. I just think looking at game four, and it's a huge look ahead to Sunday, but I'm off the air till Monday, I'd lay the seven. I really would. I think this team coming back. This is a little older brother, younger brother. It's not quite, you know, Rangers, Devils, Hudson River rivalry type.

You're not right next to each other. I believe it's 90 minutes door to door. But it is, in essence, a hierarchy thing in a geographical unique location that doesn't happen on. in the NBA. We don't get it all the time. And I think the Warriors got their Austin Powers mojo back. And again, four starters and double figures for them. Clay didn't go off. But you get 29 from a pool and a moody.

That starts to help. Curry was magnificent. I told you to hammer with the Aaron Judge Gaville over four and a half threes. He had it with 11 minutes left in the ball game. But again, I want to point to the defense of adjustments. last thing I'll say on the Warriors, and the defensive improvements that this team exhibited because I thought Steve Kerr got out-coached by Mike Brown.

And it's a fascinating coach-on-coach matchup. We haven't heard enough about, but Brown, coach of the year now, Mazel, was on this staff, won a ring with them, sat right next to Kerr. But 33 and 8 at home is no joke. They won their last 21 games against Western Conference opponents at the Chase Center

who had winning records. One T1 Ws in a row first above 500 teams at the Chase Center. They've now won seven in a row against the Kings at home. 13 of their last 14 at home. I'm sorry. This is going 2-2 back to the beam and we'll play ball. But when it comes to one game and the Warriors needing to win one game, just ask yourself this.

What did you watch in game one in game two? You watched Curry have a chance to tie it in game one and send it to overtime. You watched Curry miss a three. Fox hit a three. That was a difference in tying and going up six for the Kings in game two. They go on to win. Game three was door to door, wire to wire box office routing. That game was not close.

That game I watched the live line. All game. Every game. It's what I'm paid to do. This was never less, for the most part, than around 11 and a half. 11 and a half. Original line 7, closing line 5 and a half. The books never even gave you a shot to take the Warriors at a beautiful closing

line number of 5.5. Again, we've seen this trend in the NBA playoffs. Winning team covers the spread. even our good beat Thursday night taking the sixers at minus four and a half got a cookie's late bucket on a layup Scotty van bad beat backdoor cover. I mean, it's everywhere. It's sick. And it works both ways because I had T. Wolves game two plus eight and a half. That should have been a cover.

I digress. I look at the series price right now on that Kings Warriors game four. and you can still get the Warriors at minus 126. I'm telling you, I'm telling you. One of these teams blew out the other at home. The other nearly gave both away. You don't think the Kings could easily be down 0.3. Go watch the last five minutes of those games.

I'm not saying the Kings didn't play excellent. The Kings weren't fundamentally sound. And they didn't deliver. They did. But we're talking about a make or miss league. and the Warriors missed two key shots in two games, which is why they went down 0 and 2, the Kings got routed.

I trust the dubs to get one win on the road in two chances and win this series. I digress. I want to move on to the Lakers Grizzlies. A interesting, interesting number for a wonderful Saturday night at the former Staples Center. It breaks my heart to say anything. other than what that arena is. 4.5 point line Lakers

laying 2.10 against the Grizzlies. Now, I'm taping this well before game time. It's tough. I'm going to talk briefly Buck's heat in this series as well. I got a parlay for Saturday. It's a little cupcakey.

It's completely contingent on we don't know the status of Janus too far out. We don't know the status of Jod too far out. I don't want to give you something when the stars of both teams, are questionable. It's just not correct bet strategy, and it's just a fickle spot.

But I do have confidence in these two teams I'll give you on this Cupcake Money Line parlay and a few. I expect them to win regardless. But I want to talk out this Lakers game three. I absolutely love the L.A. Lakers to win this game. And I absolutely love them to cover. And again, from San Diego, DiHard Lakers fan, Mons from L.A.,

we're covering San Diego, Clippers fan, but not really jelly bean, Joe Bryant long before my existence. What happened in game two that won't happen again in game three? Tillman, Xavier Tillman put up Anthony Davis numbers and Anthony Davis put up Xavier Tillman numbers. We know Hotchamura went ballistic game one. Well, Xavier Tillman gave you, gave you Big East Sonogo, Connecticut second round. St. Mary's numbers. Yeah, I went there with it. Six guys in double figures. Tillman leading

the way with 22 and 13. He was the Hachamura of game two. And AD, for some reason, had 13 and 9. And reminds yourself, AD in two previous games against the Grizzlies has had a 30 and 22 piece. And as recent as last month and a LeBron list win against the Grizzlies at home, a 28 and 19. Peace. So that 112.103 win against the Grizzlies last month at home, I want you to really pay attention to. Didn't have LeBron. Didn't have John Morant.

This game will have the king. May or may not have John Morant, but it's exactly the game script they want to play. And they don't really have to make a ton of adjustments. Again, you did your job. No one is expecting the Lakers to go into the number one outside of Denver home. court advantage in this year's NBA, Memphis, and win two. They just needed to split and split. They bananaed.

Look, the Grizzlies did and played above their head with their role players in game two. The odds of that happening to the same production without JAA on the road in a pissed off Lakers spot and environment, I wouldn't back. I really wouldn't. And again, this Grizzlies team is good on the road, but they're not great. on the road like they're great at home. You go back to that game.

Last month, you had a Troy Brown 13. You had a Dennis Schrooter. Dennis the men is 17. Reeves and Hachamuro with 34 between the two of them off the bench. That's all we're asking for. And LeBron to give you what he's been giving you, 28 and 12 last game. We don't need 12 boards. We need eight.

We need at least nine, ideally. And we need AD to be AD. And I envision that happening. Jenkins made some great game two adjustments. it was a must win spot, just like the Cavs in game two who lost game one at home, just like the sons who lost game one and had to steal back game two at home. This is not panic but in time. This is zigzag quality clubs exchanging blows in a series that will likely go at least

six. But you look at game three. In the win, the Lakers had 16 threes. In the loss, they had seven. Pretty big discrepancy. In the win, they had 53% as a team from the field. And then those 16 threes with incredible field goal percentage as well. They hit seven threes and shoot 41% from the field on the road.

When you're outboarded, you have less assists and more turnovers. You can watch the game. You can look at the box score. You're going to lose. but I do believe this series stylistically is going to be contingent on physical play. If the Lakers bring physicality, if they bring O O, LeBron, old enough to remember, type Pistons-esque intensity. I'm talking Wallace Squared, Rashid and Ben, Jen Ziers may not know. I'm talking John T. Billups, Rip Hamilton.

I want to see some DOG. And if there is DOG from this Lakers team, they will play with enthusiasm. They will play great transition offensive basketball. When they get stops and LeBron gets ahead of steam, he looks sometimes like 28, not 38. I'm telling you, the ageless Benjamin Button wonder. But I love the Lakers on Saturday night in a big way to lead the series to 1. I want to briefly speak on before my pick and we getting out of here. This Miami game, game three, it is on a Saturday.

We have time to digest this narrative. It's a five and a half point line. They heat at home getting five and a half. I got to be honest. If Janice is out, it's hard to not consider the heat with the points. But I have to again, similar to the Lakers wins and losses, look at the game script, look at the output, and remind yourself how uniquely momentous that game one was from a Miami perspective.

The star, the best player in the world goes down and Miami smells blood in the water. They see deer in the headlights, whatever you want to fantastically tuck your dad voluntarily shirt in and say, the box in the game to win hit 25, three. Wait, what? Twenty-five. Now, you shoot eleven in the loss, and I don't even know if you need to look much further. The bucks didn't hit their shots game one.

The bucks absolutely hit their shots game two. Furthermore, Miami shot 60% from three in game one. the bucks shot 24%. The discrepancy there is it goes without saying. But to shoot as well as the cab, as well as the bucks did in game two, I got to be honest. I'm kind of back feeling comfortable

with Milwaukee without Janus in this spot. Now, Miami is so Jekyll and hide this whole season. they can look certified dangerous at times and then they can look lost at Castaway C. But you can't give Pat Conitin in the 20s. You can't give Brooke Lopez 25. Speaking of which, no Janus really zero in on Brooke Lopez's points. He's a little hot and cold from three. My guys got 20 plus and four of the last five, six of the last eight, 20 plus.

This was a dude that was treated by the Lakers like a backup Mike White quarterback. He is a certified savage on the point prop market, particularly when Janus goes out. And again, 138 points without your. stars. I mean, that is terrifying if you are Miami. And Miami plays real D. This is a series that should be defensive focused. And this game two ended 138, 122. Again, a few players will come back down to Earth. Connithin's not going to give you over 20. I don't think Joey Jingle Ingalls is going to give you 17, 4 and 4 either. But you go to the heat.

I mean, Kyle Lowry, after the Hawks 33 has been Casper the Ghost, Jimmy Buckets is going to bucket. He still gave you 25. Bam gave you 18, similar to where his over under is. It's always around 19 to half. They lost by 16. And again, Duncan Robinson hopped into that Tyler Hero role. He was serviceable.

He had 14. Then to that 16 Oladipo and Caleb Martin had 30 between the two of them. it's not like the heat didn't show up in game two. They didn't have the bodies to keep up with the box. Now, we cashed on a ton from that game two on the prop market. I said Drew never takes a holiday when Janus goes out. His numbers skyrocket. We loved them on over assist.

We loved them on over points and assist. I feel the same way about game three. I don't know the status of Janus. I say all that to say, I think the. bucks who do have to get one, by the way. They have to get one in Miami because of the split. I think they get game three. I think there's a world where they can get game three and keep the momentum going

from what they exhibited in game two. I want to parlay them. And I'm nervous about it because as we talk to Sons Clippers game three out, 123-109 in game 2. And then an interesting Clippers cover. But a son's win in game three, 129, 124. Devin Booker was all class, 45.

Kevin Durant was Kevin Durant, 28, 6, and 5. Tori Craig with a clutch 15. Chris Paul with 11, 6, and 7. Look, this Clippers team, played their hearts out. How debilitating is it? You have Paul George and Kauai Leonard.

No one can stay healthy. I mean, they're equivalent to my right shoulder popping out when I put a sports coat on wrong. They are fragile as Frankie Merman. I mean, honestly, 42 from Norman Powell. Shout out San Diego. Russ gives you 30. Bones, former Denver Nugget, Highland gives you 20.

I mean, this is fascinating. the clippers out shot the sons the clippers with no kawai leonard and paul george out shot from a field goal percentage wise the sons 54 percent they shot 42 percent from three and had five more three pointers and they still lost the game that is beyond debilitating more points in the paint i mean they were excellent in a lot of categories. And this is what we know on this mismatch with these two teams. The depth of the Clippers bench is exposing the lack of the depth with the Sons. If the Sons don't win a ring this year, I don't think they will, it's going to be them

going back to base camp and saying we need bodies, big time bodies. But furthermore, if Kauai is out, and this is a big if, if Kauai is out, take the Sons with the bucks in a money line parlay, it's plus money, plus money for two teams that I believe are absolutely winning their series. It's just a matter of when they're wrapping it up. Two teams that are going against clubs

that I just think don't have the weapons. They just don't have enough. And I want to root for Miami. sat there before game two and started to convince myself that the heat, if they stole the Buck series at 40 to 1 to win the East, it's worth a sprinkle. I mean, they were a Jimmy Bucket three away against the Celtics last year in game seven from going to the finals. But furthermore, this son's team is kind of fortunate. I'm actually not that blown away impressed with Phoenix. You got to have Devin Booker giving you 45 and KD giving you 28 to beat the Clippers without

Kauai and Paul George by five. I mean, a dub, a dub's a dub in the playoffs, but I don't love it. So a quick note on that, I think the Sons do win game four with no Kauai. I love a Klippers cover. If Kauai is playing, though, I do think that game will bring out the best of the clippers.

If they don't have Kauai, I don't know how you morally recover. I mean, you saw the Tailu post games. It's beyond, beyond soul crushing. and just zaps the flow out of the Steve Balmer world. For the Amazon AMP audience, with me at the end here, I appreciate it. I am headed to the garden for game three. The New York Knicks and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

We know this series is about defense. This is about who can do the little things. Now, the Knicks and the Cavs have danced six times. including the regular season. Never not once had Cleveland outboarded the New York Knicks. I spoke on it last week. Again, I'm on a Knicks to win the East ticket. I've lost my complete New York, New York mind.

I'm all in on the New York Knicks and game two was not fun. But to be outboarded by seven knowing they outboarded the calves and Knicks are second in the league, calves are 20th. when it comes to in the paint discrepancy. That should never be the case with this New York Knicks, Mitch Rob, Randall, Hartnstein on the block situation. So outboarded by seven will not happen. Furthermore, the Knicks were borderline unwatchable

from a shot-making perspective. They had their second lowest scoring game of the year in game two, 24% from 3, 36.7 from the field, even Jalen Brunson was off. He never is. But I got a couple of things I want you to know. War game three. The Cleveland Cavaliers as an underdog and a road underdog.

Horrible. Four and 13 as a dog. Three and 13 as a road underdog. Fifth worst in the NBA on the season. Fifth worst people. All right? Furthermore, the Knicks, I don't even know how to tell you this without shooting it straight, Jerry. They are the third most offensive efficiency team at home in the league.

You're in a league with Curry, with Luca, with LeBron, with Booker, with so many decorated stars. And this New York Knick team is third in offensive. efficiency at the garden. Furthermore, they are excellent as a home favorite. They average around six and a half points, margin of victory. They have won. They have won their last eight Eastern Conference games at home against teams with a winning record.

Eight. They have won the first quarter in five of their last six against the cows at the garden. Furthermore, the Knicks are a top three. home cover in the first quarter. We spoke about this at the beginning of the show. Teams in spots that are must win. And I believe the Knicks in Game 3 are must win. You win the first quarter.

You win the game. You win the tip. You win the uncut gems first leg of the three leg parlay. This is how we roll. The Knicks will win the first quarter on Friday night with dog, with hustle, with heart. That is H-E-A-R-T and Joshua. They will win game three with a. crowd behind them like you wouldn't believe.

I will be there. I cannot wait. The Knicks are going to win this game. Wouldn't suggest minus one a half. Just take them on the money line and take it to the window. So we are out of here. Lakers minus four and a half Saturday. Kauai is out.

Yonis or not. We love a box son's money line parlor. And if you've been rocking with me, I love me some playoff props. This week alone, we cast two for holiday, one for Yokech, one for Jamal Murray, and slammed Steph Curry over four and a half. We've hit five props on the program this week. I got to get you out of here with Anthony Davis having a Saturday afternoon, excuse me, Saturday evening to remember.

think on the points thought over 23 and a half is criminally low. He's where he should be at 12 and a half with rebounds. But I think Anthony Davis over 23 and a half points, slam it. Slam it. Appreciate your rocking with me. Don't forget to hug your mothers. We are out of here on the herd, Amazon Amp, Volume Sports YouTube, and wherever you get your podcast.