The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NBA Playoffs Bets: Knicks-Heat, Sixers vs. “overrated” Celtics, Suns-Nuggets

Episode Date: April 29, 2023

On Friday's edition of the Moneyline Monaco Podcast, Monaco previews the NBA Playoffs, including the Knicks-Heat, Sixers-Celtics, and Suns-Nuggets. Monaco discusses the Knicks-Heat series and has no doubt that Jalen Brunson's Knicks will beat Jimmy Butler's Heat. Then, Monaco explains why Nikola Jokic's Nuggets have a slight advantage over Kevin Durant's Suns. Finally, Monaco breaks down the classic matchup between the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers, and why Boston isn't the same team as last year's conference champions. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the second round of the NBA playoffs. It's another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco, fired up for today on Amazon AMP Volume sports YouTube channel, wherever you get your podcast. I'm absolutely Danny dialed.

It is the most wonderful time. of year for professional basketball. The second round, as we will preview Nick's Heat on this episode, Suns Nuggets, Celtics, Sixers, coming to you amidst the wrapping up of Lakers, Gris, Kings, Warriors. So we will table those doing an Amazon AMP live later today to discuss game action tonight. But I am on this pot talking all things. All things. Knicks to win the East.

You already know where I stand plus 11,000. How does that series match up? I will be there covering this series with MSG on volume sports, fired up. We'll be doing some Knicks reactions. We'll table that. But ultimately, I got my best bet for the series. I got my game one pick. We'll get into it.

Sun's Nuggets going to be riveting. furthermore, this Celtic Sixers series, and we will have to discuss it, but this Joe L.M.B. News with his knee is a cause for concern, but we get all our attention to the front, to the mecca, to the garden, to the storyline of Jimmy Buckets versus these New York Knicks. And oh, by the way, Jimmy Butler versus his old coach times two Tommy. Tommy. Tibbs, the man who does not uncross his arms on the sideline unless he's. This is a riveting series. The line on Fandul for the series, Nick's favoriteed, rightfully so, minus 158. The heap plus 134. Of course, home court coming to the Big Apple.

The Knicks host game won on Sunday. The line has moved, believe it or not, opened around Nick's mind. minus five and laying over minus 200. They're minus four and minus 186 at the moment pending where you shop, 206 and a half the over under. Now, we know Jimmy Butler has been absolutely scorching. I'll give you his numbers, but we're going to talk this out and go a little zig and zagging this series,

but rock with me. You know I'm on the Knicks to win the East. if you support the Moneyline Monaco podcast. And if you are with me, we are in a cozy spot. Now, I'm on a buy a Colin Cowherd next door neighbor property to him if the Knicks and Lakers get there, $55 to win over $70,000. And I got several tickets to those. It's an insane thing to say out loud.

If that comes to fruition, it starts with a Knicks game one win on Sunday against this heat team. Now, I want to start out with how incredible the Knicks are. And I don't want this to be a Knicks Homer podcast. I just want to point this out how dominant New York was against Cleveland in that series. And again, remind yourselves, the books hustled you. I watch the Knicks sun up to sundown like it's my job because it is. There is no team.

I watch more than the Knicks every minute of every game of this whole season. And again, I went on the air in early. excuse me, late February. We crafted a segment called maybe Alex is crazy that the Knicks can win the East. My guy, Ben Stiller, the only one to respond to me on the Twitter bird, all documented.

If you do listen to this, you want me to throw it to you, I'll throw you. It was one heck of a Pacino any given Sunday speech, baby. But this Knicks team, who had taken three or four from Cleveland winning column against the spread column, did exactly what they do, not just on the block, on the second chance points, on the defensive acumen,

but they did it constantly throughout the series on both sides. And I want to start out with what they did just as a whole. And it starts with the effort. And this is your New York Knicks. They are not the most glamorous. They have done.

Jalen Brunson, who was dragged, like it was a mediocre signing at best when he came over from the Mark Cuban club. But it was offensive rebounding. It was second chance points. Look at game five, for example, that everyone thought Cleveland was going to win. I hammered Knicks plus five and a half. I was a little nervous about the money line, but either way, we're sitting on the plus 166 ticket to win the series. And we were in a great position. 17 offensive rebounds to four, 17 to four. Mitchell Robinson had 11 on his own. This is where you see Jared Allen bend the Game of Thrones knee on the podium after calling Mitch Robb the best rebounder in the NBA. Furthermore, Josh Hart in this series who's been in the league over seven years, never made the playoffs,

has an in-and-out double-dub in his playoff debut with 17 and 10 in the Knicks win game one. the Knicks in this series. And again, second chance points. Come on. 61 to 26. If they're going to out rebound you, if they're going to second chance point you, and they already have the better defense with the better coach,

where are you getting an edge against a team like this? I know they don't have a Durant, a Booker, a Curry, a Bron, an AD, and Brunson is their best player. But they have such a. a special aura around them. Tibbs goes to the nine-man rotation on December 5th, since then, a top five offensive net rating in the league.

Furthermore, this is the fourth best offense. Fourth best offense the Knicks have ever had in the history of the Knicks, of the Knicks. Jalen's done some numbers where he's the most decorated Knicks point card as far as one season in certain categories ever, ever. You saw, and I took a picture of it, because it was disgusting. The halftime score in the closeout game for Boston versus Atlanta at halftime was 68-67. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm here to tell you, all four Knicks wins held Cleveland to under a hundred.

We're talking baby back March madness offense. Donovan Mitchell ended up with under 20 points per game. Do you know how juicy he is to score over 20 on your local shop? Forget about it. He fell off a cliff after game one. 19 and a half. Look, the Knicks from a betting perspective are the sixth best cover in the NBA. All right?

They have the second best against the spread record behind the Sixers. Of course, who Hogwarts, Griffin, Thor, sweep. One team had Cleveland, a top five offense, the other at Brooklyn with no stars and eight role players who are 2K86s. The underhead in all five games in this Cavs-Nicks series, and I want you to know they have the second best defensive rating behind the Sixers. Remind yourself, the Sixers played the Nets, the Knicks played the fifth best offense in the league. Fifth Best home record. against the spread and straight up in the league.

Cleveland, this is for Drew Carey, you. 94.2 points the Knicks gave up on defense. And Julius Randall's ankle is a story in this game, in this series. Julius Randall and multiple Knicks wins had so much below his Costco sample size of output. I need you to put that on the backburn. I mean, furthermore, this. Nick's team shows you they can do it with different guys every game.

I mean, honestly, game one was a Brunson 27 Randall 19 RJ 7 win against Cleveland. Then you look at the 99-79 win at the Garden. Oh, by the way, the lowest output of any team on any moment on the season, Cleveland 79 at the garden. I was there watching. You want to talk about Seattle 12th man? Yeah, the biggest six man in the NBA is the New York Knicks, Madison Square Garden crowd. And I said this when I was watching.

All this team needs to do is pick off a road win a series and they will win their series. No one is coming to the garden and winning. And then they get home court. They have home court. I'm a stander. I'm a pacer on my TV show. It's very hard for me to sit down and not move around as I talk to you about this because I'm so excited. but bringing it all into Miami, who again, cooked, played out of their mind, did borderline

the impossible. The bucks were minus 1500. The heat were plus 700. I mean, an incredible, incredible output. But the Knicks and the heat this season, ladies and gentlemen, the New York Knicks own the Miami Heat. We're talking three and one straight up, three and one against the spread. We're talking about a Knicks team.

That was a dog in three of those four games. And guess what? It doesn't matter if they're the dog. They're the favorite. They are doom and gloom from a sportscaster perspective. They are doubted on this from a bookmaker angle. It doesn't matter. It's an off-ongue moment.

And look at the blueprint of the 101-92 win. Because ironically, the Knicks played the heat three times in the month of March, three times when two and one, Julius Randall game winner Down in Del Boca Vist. You had a beautiful win at the garden. That was a great blueprint. We'll talk it out right now,

101, 92. I mean, that was a game where Grimes cooked, quickly cooked, and Randall only had three points. Now, that is important because if Randall's ankle, which we don't know where it's at, we got a Randall ankle, a Joel and beat LCL knee looming before the game

one of these two series. It's very difficult to make a purchase. from a series price when you have all this looming. But defensive in that 101.992 game, Jimmy bucket list was five at 10 on 12 points. Five a 10 as we segue into Jimmy Butler and all things, Mr. Mr. Buckets. I got to give him his flowers.

But here's the thing. Jimmy Butler in the playoffs versus Jimmy Butler versus the Knicks is two different paintings we're talking about Jimmy Butler coming off a buck series where he average 48 points 48 points I mean currently 37.6 points per game fifth fifth in a single playoff run ever Michael Jordan 43.7 points per game over three games in 1986 first Boston is number one just a pale in comparison what he is. Now, in the playoffs since 2020, 47 games, he's a 25 points per game guy shooting just under 50%. He has

in 20 plus point games of those 47, 29. Okay? He's got 10 plus games of 35 or more points. But what is Jimmy Butler at the Garden? I mean, really put this in your gambling noggin in your coffee. Stir this up. Jimmy Butler has played 16 games at Madison Square Guard. He averages 14.4 points.

Let me repeat a guy who is averaging the fifth most points in the history of the league in the playoffs through the first round. Who is averaging 25 points per game in 47 playoff games? at the garden averages 14. How many 20 plus points you might ask of those 16 does Jimmy Butler have? Four. He is four. This season, you're wondering,

oh, but Jimmy Bullery is having an unbelievable year. This year at the garden, he's averaging 11 points per game. So you do what you want with that information. But I'm telling you right now, Oh, it's not the regular season anymore, Alex. I don't care. Boonehoser doesn't know how in a desperation spot to handle himself. Did you see the podium, beta, bad posture?

I hated to see it from a championship coach. He had a timeout. He didn't know he had a time. He got asked about the timeout. He bent the knee and said, ah, we probably should have called it. I'm telling you. Spolster out-coats Putin-Hoser, he will not. not out-coached Tom Tibbs.

Bicker staff, it was such a routing from a head-on-head coaching. You want to make this an octagon or a square boxing match? I mean, this was Tank putting his purse on the line against Ryan Garcia at Pibs v. Bickerstap. Bickerstaff didn't even know what to do with his rotation by the time he got to the garden. I'm telling you. And Spolstra, just last thing I'll say on this series, as you know, I'm on the next to win this series. I got them at minus 144.

They're minus 158 right now. On the books. Take them to the bank with me. I'm on 11,001 for the Knicks to Win the East. I put a Patrick Ewing 33 on it. I am writing that to the Promised Land. I told you. I told you.

I begged you. Now it's down to 6 to 1 for the Knicks to win the East. The value is virtually gone, but you can still join me on this rot. 3 and 1 on the year against Miami. undefeated at the guard. The calves never broke 100. Never not once in their losses. I mean, put that into perspective.

And remind yourself what the national media does to your betting acumen, to the gambling gut, which is never more prevalent. The gambling gut knows best. The heat were done. They were toast. They were 37 to 1 to win the east, a cup of coffee ago. No Tyler Hero, no Victor Oladipo now.

So you mean to tell me in a series where the Knicks are going to have the better defense, they're going to have more depth, they have the healthier team, they have home court advantage, they certainly have an edge on rebounding. I mean, Bam Bam, who's the best rebounder on the staff got over 10 rebounds twice against Milwaukee in five games twice. Only broke 10. Mitch Rob had 11 boards on offense in a closeout game. You do what you want. But R.J. Barrett in three of those last five games at 21, 26, and 19.

I'm telling you. Lefties are back in a big way. Julius Randall or no Julius Randall. I love the Knicks to win game one, win the series. You can parlay that. I will swallow the four. I will take the Knicks. I do lean under.

I think the heat are lucky to break 100 on Sunday. And we'll see you on the other side for a next reaction video on volume sports. Let's talk out two more series here. Now, of course, that was a longer winded series. I am, I have to be. I have to be in the weeds a little bit on that. This Sun's Nugget series, let's set the table here, all right? They face off four times in the regular season.

Both teams win twice. Durant not a member of the Suns yet. Denver beats them by a combined 32 points in the first two meetings prior to the All-Star break. they clash again on March 31st and April 6th. Yokech out of the lineup. And of course, we see what Phoenix does. Now, this is an interesting, interesting series from so many vantage points. Now, theme-wise, from a betting perspective,

this NBA playoffs has been riveting. I did a segment this week. It was right before Tuesday where those three double-digit underdogs, had one and the Hawks won outright. That day where it was three whopping spreads, Clippers, 12 and a half, Hawks, 10, they won, and then you had the T-wolves. But I look at this series,

and it's going to be interesting because it's stars versus depth. It really is stylistically. Now, from a betting perspective on that day, prior to that day, in 35 games of the playoffs, 31 of the teams, 31 of the teams that one covered. Doesn't matter if they were a dog and won out right or a heavy favorite they covered. So just really think about that. 31 of 35 to that moment on that day. And guess who had more than half of those on the four? The LA Clippers who went one in four straight up against the Sons,

but covered three out of five. Completely bucking the theme and trend of this year's playoffs. You win the game you cover. Doesn't matter the side, except for one little series. series, the Clippers, who again lost Kauai Leonard halfway through that series, who didn't have Paul George at all, who were short man, short-dogged, counted out everything. Turmoil internally with Ty Lou, you're starting to see stuff leak, and they still

covered three out of five. It's just a testament to not just the Clippers' depth and their coaching, but the Phoenix Sons and the fact that they got five guys and a lot. pack of Skittles off the bench. I'm telling you. You know who leads the playoffs in minutes right now? Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Now, to me, to me, this is a combination of stars versus depth and youth first experience.

I mean, Chris Paul has played 147 postseason games, ladies and gentlemen. Jamal Murray's on his 27, on his 39. Right. A big discrepancy there. One point guard has over a hundred more state farm insurance games than the other. But Jamal Murray comes in and he really was the leader in that first round series against Minnesota. He upped his numbers again from the last time he was in the playoffs. Again, he was injured last year, 25, 6 and 6 brilliant PRA numbers. And one thing you have on your side if you're thinking Denver with Michael Malone being the fourth long

as tenure coach in the NBA is continuity. And I know they they mixed it up a little bit, getting rid of a Bones Highland and then a Reggie Jackson and Thomas Bryant mixing it up a little bit. But for the most part, their nucleus and their team and their big three, Jamal, Michael, Porter, Jr. And of course, the Joker, been together a few years now here. And you watch that series, Sons versus the Clippers. And I would say that to me, was a very exhausting series to watch from a Phoenix perspective. It's as if they had to do everything and then some with their stars to win that game. And it's evident in the minutes, Durant and Booker leading one, two.

It's evident in what Devin Booker is putting up stylistically with his numbers. He's leading the playoffs in points per game, 37. but how does that factor in when you're going against now a healthy team, a number one home court in the league team with home court in this playoffs, and quite frankly, a significantly deeper roster. Now, you don't have unlike heat nicks,

a ton to pull from recently. So from a betting perspective, I actually don't want to bet on the series. until after game one and here's why. You look at the line of the series. And it's right now Phoenix minus 136. Denver's plus 116. I got a weird feeling Denver's going to win game one on ethos, pathos,

riled up home, the contavius Colwell popes, the Bruce Browns, the depth on this team, come out and show out. And so this is what I'm thinking as Denver. The line moved drastically, but Denver right now is around minus two, minus two and a half to win game one.

I would take them on the money line at a little bit of a, a little bit of a swollen juice, but nothing too substance. Denver at plus 116 to win the series and actually getting plus one and a half on the series price is very, very fascinating. But I can see, I can see Denver winning game one, unlike, unlike you would think the other way it could go.

Phoenix steals game one. Denver comes back in adjusting game two. Remember that the Clippers won game one of that series against Phoenix. Why? Because I think coaching, continuity, experience, and a Kauai Leonard was in the mix. But in this instance, Yolkich with a couple of triple doubles, one in the closeout game. I mean, they really were outscoring through three games. Minnesota 117 to 100. And you go look at the statistics right now.

Points four points against. I mean, Denver is giving up 10 less points per game defensively. So we look at the offense in this and you could go tit for tat. But defensively, Denver's fifth in this playoffs, giving up 105 and Phoenix is all the way down, double that. giving up 1 15. And Denver went against a pretty damn good Minnesota offense. And Phoenix went against Norman Powell and the boys.

So Phoenix is what I'm getting at is had to put up 122 a game second most in this postseason to win that series. And they only covered twice. They only covered twice in a theme of a season. off season where 31 covers out of 35 were on the side of winning and also covering, but not these sons. Denver, a little bit less offensively, but I just think you can look at it from a couple different ways. The youth versus experience thing, the son's not really shooting a lot of threes.

By the way, they only shot 27% of their action from Steph Curry, range. Lowest output from threes by a wide margin. Lowest rate for any team in any series in the last four post seasons. Really think about that. The sons are prolific, but they don't shoot threes. Now, they shot 40% from Beyond the Ark in five games against the Clippers, and they were still outscored by 7.8 points per game from Beyond the Ark. We're talking about two of the best three, maybe even three of the best,

mid-range shooters and Chris Paul D. Book and CP3 we've ever seen. They all shot better than 50% from mid-range in the first round. 50% that is not sustainable. It isn't. And last game, 193, the sons beat the nuggets. They beat them by seven. Katie was playing, Booker was playing, Aiton was playing, Chris Paul was playing. Yolkich was not, Murray was not, Michael Porter Jr. was not.

And they only beat the Nuggets by seven. Old Alex, old Alex would have taken the Phoenix Suns in game one. New Alex, weights on the NBA series price. And furthermore, furthermore. takes the nuggets in game one, the best home court in the NBA. You will still get to bet on the series. I like the nuggets in game one.

I will come back on my Monday pod and let you know if I am on the sons to win the series. Leaning, leaning, nuggets to win the series. As a fan, of course you want the sons. Of course, this is betting, baby. I'm here to win your money. I'll take the nuggets,

money line game one we wrap up the show with the most decorated biggest number of dances in the history of the playoffs the philadelphia 76ers and the boston seltics their 22nd time meeting the most in the history of the league dilly comes in number one in date 92.5 points per game. Celtics. Giving up 115. 1.15. Ladies and gentlemen.

That ain't your Eme, Udoka, Celtics D from last year. Furthermore, the status of Joe L.N.B. We have to start with it. I just saw a Philadelphia 76ers reporter. Works for NBC Philly.

This verbatim. Status for game one depends. on his strained on his sprained LCL and how it responds and feels in the next few days. Furthermore, this guy named John Clark,

I'm told Joel L&B status for game one in Boston is still not known after meeting with doctors. It will depend how he feels in the next few days. Here's the thing. You look at the season between these two, the final two meetings,

it was all Joel and B. I mean, the season splits are outrageous. He put up 36, 11, and 4.3, shot 61% against Boston in his last two games. I have some NBA tracking data on this. I really went into the weeds. This team cannot stop Joel and Bid. Horford guarded him 66 possessions this season,

and Bid scored 64% of the time. That is remarkable. If Joe L&B doesn't go, we have to look at how this team is going to perform. And James Hardin was noticeably abysmal in the four games against the Brooklyn Nets. He shot 9 of 34 on 2 points shots. Nine of 34. Take out his game 3, 5 for 8. He shot 4 at 26 in games 1, 2, and 4.

Four of 26 and he's out partying, celebrating. Hardin was even worse when he drove. I don't even understand what's going on. Seven for 30 in the paint against Brooklyn. Listen to how abysmal this is. According to ESPN, stats and information research, among 25 attempts among all players, among all players, those numbers in the paint, the worst field goal percentage and a single series since all of this was tracked in 1996.

That's how bad James Hardin was historically in the Brooklyn net series. Now, the Celtics switched on him 73 times when he was the ball handler for an on ball screen. That was their most instances on a single player. This is per second spectrum tracking, just to cite my sources. Hardin did very well in those plays, actually. Put up 1.17 points per chance. Celtics allowed 0.95 points per chance when switching on the regular season against all opponents.

And that was top 10 in the league. So the point is, Harden on these switch screens did very well against Boston. Now, he's going to have to step up in game one without, we would argue, a Joe L. and Bid pick and roll there for them to make those difficult choices. That's where I think they're going to. to Philly pick off a lot of offense in this series because how these long wing defenders are, you have Tatum, you have Brown, even smart and white against Tyrese Maxie. Look, Maxie ain't going to do what he did in the Brooklyn series in this Boston series.

He's just not. Look at the four meetings this year against Boston, 17 for 48. He was nine for 32 over his last three contests. He's gone against Boston 10 times in his young career. career. He's shooting 34% from the field. He is averaging Tyrese Maxie against Boston. Really hear this, 8.2 points per game. That is bad, bad. That is bad bad. Now, this is a live and die, Boston by the three team. When they hit 40% of their threes on the season, 34 and two, including this year's playoffs, 34 and 2 when they put up 40% of their threes.

When they hit below that mark, 27 and 24. 40% is the number. 40% is the number. Unfortunately for Boston. Philly's three point defensive percentage right now against Brooklyn at least. 32.6% well below the number that you are looking for if you want to back Boston and feel cozy.

Now, Philly was incredible on the season defensively. Believe it or not, they were top five all year. They guarded the three on the season at a 34.8% rate. What did I just tell you? Just to remind me, the Celtics are 34 and 2 when they hit 40% of their 3%. They aren't going to hit 40% of their threes in this series every game. They may do it at home in game one. They're not going to do it all series, not against this defense.

So I don't want to bet on the series right now. Why would we? We have a superstar and an MVP with a hurt knee. We have a sixers series spread that pays plus 250 for Philly. Boston's going to win game one. All right. At minus 310, you have to take Boston,

but you don't want to touch it with a 10-foot pole. You just don't. What we have to do, what we have to do is park it for game one. Now, you do have these game one series parlays. It's minus 170 for Boston to win game one. And the Sixers to win, excuse me, and the Celtics to win the series.

No value there either. Game one is Boston plus seven and a half. Excuse me, Philly plus seven and a half. Boston minus seven and a half. Incredibly difficult read as well. I would say if anything, believe it or not, the under is probably the play on Monday. Now, we're going to get a shot to talk this out again on Monday before the

pod. This is going over the weekend. So we have time to bake on this. We have time to sit on this. Early thoughts, though, as if Joe Ellen Beat is a go, I think there's some serious value on the Sixers. I would wait.

I think the series price of plus one and a half for Philly is valuable. And remind yourself, this is a playoffs that has had a one seat in the east bounced, a top five offense in the league bounced. This is March Madness-esque people, and you have to read and react. I think Philly has noticeably the better defense in this series. I don't think the coaching is a mismatch like it has been in years past.

I think Doc can handle Missoula, no problem. And I think this Celtics team, it just doesn't have the DOG of these years past. They're not as chippy. They're not as in your face. Jalen Brown may be one foot out. This is an early lean on the Sixers on the series spread of plus one. and a half. As long as Joe L. M. Bid at least plays.

But the game one action, I think under 2.15 is worth a sprinkle as prolific as the shooting and shot making was in Atlanta versus the Celtics. Atlanta was the fifth worst D in the league. Philly is the fifth best. That drop off and discrepancy is going to ruffle Boston in game one. Say what you will about it. The only way the Sixers compete in game one, especially without Joe Al-N-Beed is defense.

Leaning under, leaning seven and a half. I think at the moment, though, Joe Al-N-Beed seriously hurt. Boston's going to win this series. We wrap up the show. Nix to win the series. Take them in game one minus four. Love the under as well under 207 and a half.

Nix tape to win game one. Denver to win game. one on the money line. Not touching the series yet. We're going to hang back. Early liens on Boston. We got a whole weekend of sleep on it. But if Joe Ellen Beat is a go, I think the value is on the Sixers. Call me crazy. This has been the Money Line Monaco Pod. I'm Alex Monaco. Appreciate you. Appreciate Colin. Appreciate volume. Everybody listening truly means a lot. Don't forget to hug your mothers.