The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NCAA Final Four Bets: UConn, Miami, FAU, San Diego State + Yankees World Series

Episode Date: April 1, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting insight on this edition of the Moneyline Monaco Podcast. Monaco starts by taking a deep dive into his best bets for the Men's NCAA Tournament Final Four, featuring the UConn Huskies vs. the Miami Hurricanes and the Florida Atlantic Owls vs. the San Diego State Aztecs. Later, as the MLB season opens up, Monaco tells us why Manny Machado's San Diego Padres will win the National League and why Aaron Judge's New York Yankees are the team to beat in the American League. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I'm your host, Alex Monaco. What a wonderful weekend in sports we have. We are live on the Amazon Amp app. If you are not on there, please get on there. Every show live throughout the week, Monday through Friday on Amazon Amp. I'm under MoneyLine, Monaco. Also, across all things social under that name.

I am under Alex Monaco on Twitter. Picks on Action Network, Network, locked in daily on action, under Alex Monaco. All right, without further ado, we have an unbelievable episode. And this is a special one. San Diegoed out over here.

And I'm from San Diego. I'm in a New York market. If you don't know my background real quick, Chris Berman with it. I am hosting a television show in New York on MSG called The Better Half Hour. So I'm all in on New York Sports Daily. But when we're talking about the final four, we're talking about MLB opening day,

which is what this episode is. I got to be completely all biz. and there's a little bit of emotion that'll come out in these, but I got stats to back up everything I'm feeling in this. We got Final Four action in a way that we've really never had before. Let me lay the land. Only Yukon, who makes their sixth Final Four here appearance, has had any history in this moment.

Now, I call this the Vitamin D Final Four. I'm teeing myself up for a Vitamin D championship. You got two Miami teams. two Florida teams and a San Diego club. This is going to be the tannis crowd in the history of the Houston Final Four. Everyone's going to look healthy. Everyone is going to look happy. But let me give you the history historically.

History favors the favorites. Now, as we see it on Fandul right now, Yukon the favorite, rightfully so I'll give you the exact line at the moment. They are minus 1.25, San Diego State plus 390. plus 440 and FAU plus 550. So Yukon, of course, minus 125, San Diego State,

technically speaking, is the second favorite because of the draw they got. Both teams favorite. In the last 18, in the last 18 tournaments, 17 have had at least one of the favorites

of their respective final four games in the title. The only exception, ironically, Yukon was not favored in their final four game against the top seed from the South Regional Florida in 2014. Huskies went on to beat the Gators and then went on to beat Kentucky. The point being is one of these two teams, Yukon or San Diego State, historically speaking, has a 17 out of 18 chance to get in.

ladies and gentlemen, how do we not take that trend whether you watch a ton of college ball or not and factor it in to your decision making with these lines? Now, I have a ton of conviction behind my picks. I know who I like. We'll get into it.

History also fades the public from an against the spread standpoint. We stand here with Yukon, of course, the favorite. They are laying five and a half on Fandul FAA. you is getting one and a half. So SDS use the favorite. Dying back to 2005.

Now again, pending where you shop, where you get your tickets, you have money on the game and you have tickets on the game. Tickets are how many people bet. Total. Money is how much money. You can have more people bet on one side

and the sharps put 80% of the money on the other side. And the money is where you want to follow more than the tickets, more times than not, when you're looking at handles and you're looking at overall tickets. Well, O five teams with more than 51% of the bets, which is the public side, well under 500, 23, 27, and one last year, the public, including the Natty, was 0 and 3 against the spread. Just saying for what it's worth, laying it out for you, and I'll end with a hysterical

in-state national championship nugget I found, because I'm sleeves rolled up, baby, and all Florida natty. All right, you saw Warren Sapp rocking the owls and the canes. on the bod. This is a potential Florida Atlantic versus Miami finals and the last time

an in-state championship happened was 1961 and 1962 when Cincinnati beat Ohio State. Ladies and gentlemen, I was negative 39 years old. This is rare air that we are looking at.

Now again, three teams have not been there. Yukon has. from a just overall basketball program standpoint here. You have to feel great if you're backing Yukon. You get them at minus 125. I'm going to get to them in a second. Let me give you that. Let me give you the preview, the as we all know, warm up game to the main event.

Not a lot of people happy in the national media that my San Diego State Aztecs are in the final forward. it again, Brian Dutcher under Steve Fisher for too many years, in my humble opinion, but he stuck it out with him. And we know the San Diego State team is here because of Ray Lewis defense. And again, what they did to Charleston, Furman, Bama, and then Creighton is so impressive defensively. And I'll get into some of the numbers. I don't know how you can feel good about fading the Aztecs in this one. Now, it's minus 1.5 for SDSU.

It's now moved in the last 24 hours to state minus 2.5. That is a big bummer because I was looking at money line closer to around minus 130. It's moved to minus 154. I hate to swallow minus 154. Again, that's 154 down. I went 100. But I still leaned San Diego State. Now, you could take, I locked it in on the money line four days ago.

But I will still co-sign. on Money Line. I don't love two and a half. I really don't. I would tell you that the under at 131.5 is the best play in this game. But let's just talk out the Aztex, all right? A four and O against the spread team this tournament. All four games have gone under.

They get past Creighton with their star Matt Bradley. And again, I'm going to throw a couple names. I don't want to overwhelm you with nobody you have any idea about on the Aztex, unless you're at the IAR college basketball fan. But they have a guy named Matt Bradley. their senior star averages around 17 a game came back, had an awful ending in the attorney last year against Creighton ironically. And he has been a non-factor on offense.

And again, he counts as a decoy because in college, if you're putting up 17, it counts. But he's at two points and six points in the last two games. The guys got eight points in the elite eight and the final four as your senior captain. Now, that could be troublesome. or that could be encouraging. It's how you look at the painting. How are you looking at this betting moment?

Their star is underwhelmed. They got guys like Tramel last game, Butler the previous, stepping up in huge ways. These guys are a bunch of absolute dogs when it comes to defense. And listen to these numbers that they did. Now, Charleston shot 32% from the field. They were 5 of 24.

from three. Furman was 32% overall. They were six for 26 from three. Alabama was so bad from three. I don't even know. I don't even know how Nate Oates didn't adjust. Brandon Miller was three of 19. Brandon Miller, who's supposed to be a lottery pick, San Diego State made Alabama go three of 27 at an 11% clip from Steph Curry range. And what did they do to the Blue Jays the next round? They hurt some more young, grown men feelings. The Blue Jays were two of 17, Creighton was from three.

Nemhard, who got hurt. Don't want to come on him. Too hard. But Shireman, as I said earlier in the week, the best thing about his game in the elite eight game against the Aztecs was his headband. And I'm pretty sure his headband is a T-shirt. This is not a Drew Timmy headband.

This is a mediocre headband at best. Shireman was unwatchable. And a team that is predicated on all five of their starters in Creighton, getting double-digit production to get three out of five in that spot, only totaling over 10. And nobody scored a basket. They trolled at the beer pong table at Creighton on the bench. That is Big East on a.

acceptable. Now, again, that game was Creighton's for 35 minutes. I was watching the live line. It was state plus money, six and a half, four and a half, though. I was slamming state with points because I was watching with my two eyes. And I can never say his name right. Kalkbrenner, Cokebrenner, whatever, the seven foot assassin, the Sean Bradley lookalike from the Gen Z era could not take over the game. And it's so mind-numbing. And this is why college basketball can drive you crazy from a betting perspective, you have noticeable mismatches on the court and you don't take advantage. So here we are with a defense in San Diego State that has far and away shut down multiple teams in a row from a defensive standpoint and no one has really tried to crack the Rubik's

cube of this Dutcher D in any different way. I'm fascinated to see what this Owls team does. Now, they are balanced. They have several guys. that can put the ball in the basket. They're a 30-win club from the regular season. We saw them kind of play with House Money in that moment with Memphis. They shouldn't have even got out of. They got out of. They've looked good.

Now, I got a couple troublesome things. If you do feel like you like FAU, why you should have a little trepidish and come to my side. Did you know that they had 22 turnovers against Kansas State? I'm sorry, what? I'm sorry. Let me triple check my B-minus stigmatism. 22 turnovers?

K State 10 of 22 from 3 and they still won. Look, that was an emotional game for Kansas State. If you didn't know, there were four guys from New York on that team. Noel, Tomlin, Massoud being the main three. This was an interesting game to watch. I was emotional on Kansas State. I did have FAU at plus 470 on a value play on a volume sports futures video I did on the page. Check out volume bets.

at a great plus 470. So I did not believe in the Owls. I didn't think they would get past Kansas State. Kansas State kind of had that team of destiny feel. Now there's like three teams of destiny here. Forget about going into an astrological meditation mode to take your third eye into the promised land on a futures play here. It ain't going to happen.

You got to be cold-hearted with this because nobody in their bracket had this. So we're looking at Great D and we're looking at interesting, interesting FAU offense. Now, they're very good as a dog. I'm a little nervous that they're 5 and 1 in their last 6 when they're getting points. By less than 5, by the way. 5 and 1 is a dog when FAU is getting less than 5 points. But it's going to be their back court.

John L. Davis, who's the heart and soul of this team, has actually had two of his worst games this tournament. He has not shot the ball well at all. And that to me is a little encouraging. Now, there's two elements of this game. FAU starts hitting their shots. San Diego State's going to have to turn it up offensively. San Diego State has been able to get by on some of the ugliest offense we have seen in the tournament.

I'm sorry. I am from Ron Burgundy Land. Get yourself at Trujillo on Montezuma Road. I'll say that for the third time this tournament. If you are in my city, how you doing? Also, make sure to realize that the San Diego State team is happy to be here. Now, of course, they want to win it all. And of course they want to cut down the nets.

But I don't know anyone that was particularly all in on this team. And it was the offense that was troublesome. Now, San Diego State will force FAU to be somewhat Peyton Manning with their approach, just how Dutcher does it. Because he will smother your best player and make you go to a Quinterly who couldn't figure it out, or a Shireman who couldn't figure it out in these Bama Creighton teams over the last two outies. Now, without going two all in, I'm on state.

You're hearing why, but let's talk out this under at 131.5. Now, we know state is an unbelievable undercover. They've covered eight unders in a row following a cover. So they cover the spread they hit the under, eight times in a row, verse teams with above a 600 winning percentage. They're 13 and 3 on it. under. The Aztecs are going against an Owls team. That actually plays pretty good defense. The Owls are five and two in their last seven on the under and they're six and two in their last

eight on neutral site games on the scuba Steve under. They're two and two in the turn. 131.5 is a low number. But you go back to what San Diego State has done just this season. No one scored over 71 points on them. We're going on 17 games. So if this game lands in the 60s, which I believe it will, you know, you're getting close to 131, but you start to do the math. It's a two and a half point line, 131.5 over under. I have to take the under here. It's a game where pressure, the moment, again, let's not forget. This is now Houston where the Texans play.

So you're going to have, what, $60,000, $80,000. I'll look it up, a ridiculous amount of heads in the stadium. Ain't nobody from San Diego State as played in front of 72,200. Now, to FAs used credit, they did play at the Garden, but that, that hits $20,000. So $72,000, we'll see. Let's get to the other game. So San Diego stay in the under. Lock it up, lock it in.

Miami at five and a half right now, I'm locking it in. I have to lock it in. What are we doing? Laying five and a half in a final four game. I get it. Yukon has mowed over their opponents. Moad their opponents over.

But ladies and gentlemen, Miami just outscored Texas by 15 the second half. They were done. They were plus. 7 and a half plus 380 with 15 to go. They saws Texas. See ya, car. They took down Houston.

Sasser. Shed. Samson. The boys. So you look at seating-wise how rough this road was for Miami. Let me just compare. No knock to my ass text. In the four defeated opponents for Miami,

Miami, their combined seating is 19. That includes three of the region's top four seats. 19 is the combined seating. San Diego States, 32. Yukon and FAU combined seating of their opponents, 31. Say that out loud before you go Simp City and hit Yukon on the money line and parlay it was something like my freshman self on campus in the betting world would. have done all day every day.

Dude, Yukon has not been tested in a close game yet. Now, that's a testament to Jordan Hawkins playing out of his scored. Sonogo, first two games, over 50 points, two double doubles in the last four. They're monsters. But they have played to me to their best ability. We've seen Yukon hit their ceiling. I said it. Look, volume's got to have.

how it takes, baby. I don't think Yukon can play much better. I really don't. Here's the scary thing about Miami, who's 4 and O, by the way, against the spread. Oh, and for what it's worth, has been an underdog in three of those games and covered out, right? Not only have they had the toughest road to the final four, they've had to come back, come back in multiple games against tough teams. Deal with Texas shooting 40% from three. deal with the fact that they didn't even shoot three-pointers in that Texas outing. Texas perimeter defense was sublime. Miami was two of eight, two of eight, and they beat Texas 51 to 36 in the second half.

This is where it's scary hours. Two consecutive games against the state of Texas, all five starters had double figures. I'm starting to believe this is the championship team. Miller, not named Brandon, Jordan Miller, didn't miss a basketball. all game, seven for seven with 27, against a very pesky Texas defense. Nigel Pack has, he took over the game against Houston from three. I believe he had seven threes.

He had 15, ACC player of the year, if you didn't know, Wong on the roster. O'Mere, steal of the game at the end. On the block, I think he is going to be a pest in the paint all game to Sonogo. a whole heck of a lot more than Jackie Moon, the 37-year-old for the Gonzaga Bulldogs was. And then you have Popeye, who is a absolute, unbelievable athlete. Guy gets in the open court, soars in the air like a Showtime Laker from the 80s. You think I'm kidding.

This Miami team is so deceptive. They're never out. They're never down. they don't panic. They play together. And you watched Sonogo against the Zags. And he had a good game. He didn't have a great game.

I thought he was going to bully Timmy like a Saturday morning at the Y six foot club man versus a non-six-foot club man. Didn't really happen. Now, he played unbelievable defensively against him. He was 5 of 14, had a mediocre outing at best. But I'm talking offensively because this is what I've always said. since I covered the Big East tournament for MSG a few weeks back. Why do you kind of get bounced in that tournament and they're the last Big East team standing?

It's because I believe that their shooting can be streaky. I don't think that's a hot take. I think that's called college basketball. And Jordan Hawkins, I couldn't even be playing any better. And that is what concerns me. Here's the other Ellen. You beat Iona by 24. You smoke St. Mary's by 15.

The Arkansas game, I mean, Musselman blew it by taking off his shirt like he was Will Farrell in the streaking scene in old school. And they beat the Zags 8254. This is my thinking. They have not been in a close game. Their closest game was a 15-point routing. Their biggest win was by 28. Their average margin of victory is 22 and a half. So what happens when a 70,000 person stadium is on hand?

Everyone's watching. Everyone knows all the pressures on Yukon. Miami shouldn't be here. They were 55 to 1. Yukon has the pressure, has to win. And I got to be honest, Miami, what they did at half defensively to adjust, and they got a break with the suit,

getting hurt and not being there. But they play to me like a championship team should. And I'm getting five and a half points. So my official play is Miami plus five and a half. Now, I gave you that stat. So either SDSU or Yukons moving on, 17 and the last 18 say it. I'm not going to get you till next week till this is already locked. So it went from plus 470 down to plus 440 to so you know.

Miami a plus 440 has to be a sprinkle. If you took San Diego State 100 bucks and Miami 100 bucks, the least you can make is $290 back on the championship. If you pick both of these games right, and I'm telling you it's going to be a vitamin D final, I'm already guaranteed to be halfway correct. It has to. One of the Florida teams is going.

And if it's FAU-UCon and I go O for two, chirp me. chirp me on the internet. I am almost all the way there, but if I'm taking Miami plus 440, I'm sprinkling on plus 202 on Miami on the money line. Now look, I could be way off, and Yukon could come in,

impose their Big East will, let everyone know the Big East is the best conference in college basketball, always has been, always will, and there you go, ba-a-bang, ba-a-boo. I'm not trying to talk you off of Yukon completely. I'm trying to get you to join me on the five and a half. It is also the sharp side.

Let me remind you top of the hour, top of the app. O of 3 ATS, the public went. Public has been decimated in this tournament. I got boys texting me. They're down. I won't even tell you five numbers. Five numbers on this tournament alone. It is decimated people.

So we move on to MLB, but I am on San Diego State in a big way money line. I'm on under 131.5 in that game in a big way. I am on Miami plus five and a half in an enormous way. And I am sprinkling on Miami to win it all. And I'm going to sprinkle on San Diego State to win it all. But that's a good vibes emotional play for my San Diego self. I gave you the strategic play to play with 200.

I can go $25 bucks, breakfast money, no problem. But that's what I'm thinking. in a unpredictable Final Four and an unfathomable tournament, how do you take the chalk? I'm a chalk guy. I should be taking Yukon. For those listening, Monaco's on. Miami?

Dude, bust out the Will Lennium 2000. Welcome to Miami CD, baby. We're going to the 305. Say, you know, state of Miami, baby. It feels great. and an unbelievable place to, of course, vacation. All right. It's MLB opening day weekend.

All right. Kicked off on Thursday. An exciting moment for a lot of clubs. Now, I locked in two plays. I'm on my Padres. I'll give you the short form on the Padres. They did a lot of things well last year on both sides. This was a team actually one of the best covers in the MLB

from a favorite. standpoint. Only four teams as favorites last year had an above 500 straight up record SDSU on the Costco sample size of the seat. Excuse me. San Diego Padres on the Costco sample size of the season did just that.

You know what this lineup is. This lineup is absolutely terrifying. You have, and again, Tatis is out for a little bit but you have a lineup that is so filthy. I mean, you got Tatis. eventually coming back.

You swoop Zander Bogart's out of nowhere from Boston. You re-sign Mani Machado. He's a Padre for life. You got one Soto, the best rental in the business. You lock in Darvish for the rest of his career. Joe Musgrove, the San Diego kid has been locked in. Shout out, Cafe Adezzo. And Blake's, Blake's now,

a Southpaw quality, individual who's pitched in big moments in big games, not a bad option as well. well. Now, we know this team has also very interesting complementary pieces, believe it or not. Jake Croninworth is an all-star if you don't know. Grisham sneaky center fielder out there. Kim's done a wonderful job at Shortville and in for Tatee. Let's not forget, though, that this is a team with a Nelson Cruz. This is a team with a Mac Carpenter, with an odor. They picked up some crafty pieces. And Nick Martinez led bullpen,

I think this team with Melvin. And again, Bob Melvin was the manager for the Oakland A's. All right. That's the bad news bears version of the last team that needs to move cities in the majors. Bob Melvin made water out of wine, whatever the kids call it, numerous times. He leaves. Oakland fell off a cliff. Oakland is now being shopped to Vegas on the side by their own fans.

So Melvin is a phenomenal manager. Again, this is a team that has not won the division since 06 with Bruce Bochie. It's been a long one. But let's not forget a team that did go 5 and 14 against the daughters in the regular season, but took them 3-1 in the NLDS, went to City Field in New York, took the Mets, no problem, two hostile environments. They handled quality clubs. Now, the NL has the better far in a way league.

You got the Braves, the Dodgers, the Mets, the Padres. The AL has the Astros, the Yankees, and everyone else. In my humble opinion, it's 4V2 as far as power rankings. But the San Diego State team, the San Diego Padres team, I am all in on the Aztex. I apologize. This Padres club, who they were 11th in Team ERA, they were top 10 in a lot of, they were top 10 in whip, case per nine. They had a lot of good things going for the metrics.

I don't want to bog it down with boring baseball statistics if you're not a baseball person. I'm just telling you have five to one to win the NL. It's interesting value. Interesting value for a team that got far and away better that I don't know the market has caught up to. This team wasn't even close to 100 games last year. They underwhelmed. But we don't even know in the world of baseball how close.

this locker room is yet. I've watched spring training a ton. Shout out my guys. Ben at Woods, but they look like they like each other. And there are teams in professional sports that simply don't like each other. And in baseball and I'm a lefty, I played in my whole life. The juju, the chemistry in the dugout matters a ton. And this club, again, you're playing in the greatest city in the country as far as weather, in the best half a year stint of weather. If you have not been to Peco Park, a top five park historic aside, you'll be, you'll go to. Period. Point blank. They're just in good moods. And look at the timing. Last thing I'll say, Manny Rees signed. Darvish locked in long term. They're already working on the Soto deal.

Bogart's here to stay. Tatis is already signed through, I'm going to be. I'm going to be. be in my 40s. This is such an exciting time for San Diego, but 5 to 1 on Fandall to bring it back to a betting spot, you have to take it. They're going to be competitive all year, and it's a lineup that is so deep. There is not one guy that can go down and affect them. Watch how they work without Tatee's this first leg of the season. On to the AL. I am on the New York Yankees. They're only plus 370, but I love this New York Yankees team. Now, a 9963 season, they won the division by seven games. I think an ALE East purchase is a great purchase.

They've had a lot of consistency. Say what you will about Aaron Boone, 95 plus wins in three of the last four full seasons. And here's an interesting caveat. Every time they lose, and it's, I can say that now, to the Astros and the ALCS, they win 100 games the next year. Three of the last four times they've lost in the. ALCS, period. They've come back in 1.95 plus

the next year. Now, the Yankees did a couple of things better than anybody in the MLB last year. We know of it. We know of it all from a power number standpoint. Shout out Aaron Judge, 99 with it. They led the league in walks. They were only one of eight teams with 100 stolen bases. Now, I forgot to preface

this. We got a pitch clock. We got no more shift. The teams play every team in the league now. There's no more humble interleague play. Everybody plays, everybody. Thank you Reds pirates. And there's bigger bases. There's a lot of intangibles and a lot of elements. So these teams that shift against the swarberes and the Seegers and these teams that do a lot of interesting things well to take advantage, it's gone. Now, if you haven't watched a pitch clock, it's changing everything.

I watched the WBC more than I did spring training. So I'm still hardwired for old school baseball. It's going to be weird for me to sit here and watch all weekend a pitch clock. Neither here nor there. The pitching for the Yanks is incredible. Garrett Cole on a historic season from a strikeout standpoint, led the majors, 257Ks. They add Rodon from San Francisco, who was third in the league in K.

So you're telling me, the Yankees have two of the top three K masters in the entire major leagues on the same starting five plus Nestor, Nestor Cortez, plus Severino, plus what really we're seeing with this offense being fascinating. Look, you have Lamehu, you have Rizzo, of course you have Judge, you have Stanton, you have Trevino, you have Donaldson, you have names everywhere. There's a couple guys, though, that are interesting. I think Labor Torres is going to have a great year as well. But Anthony Volpe, the first time young kid out of Jersey, starting shortstop by the Yankees, The longest shortstop starting since Derek Jeter, the captain, is an exciting player to watch.

He is a guy that doesn't necessarily excel with speed or anything that pops off the screen, but he does everything well. He seems five tool. And he again, if the Yankees are taking a flyer on the youngest shortstop since Jeter, had that workout last time. It's like the only book I read other than like the BFG and a couple other role dolls was Derek Jeter's the life you imagine. So it's a big moment.

But you look at this Yankees team again, fourth best team ERA as a team, third best team ERA for relievers. There's only three teams under a three ERA in the relieving world. The yanks were one of 2.97. They also have a Frankie Montez. They also have a Clay Holmes. They got some interesting arms. But again, the lineup is filthy. I don't think the ALE East is particularly daunting.

Again, the race will always play small ball. The Red Sox are in a weird spot here where they're absolutely in transition. The Blue Jays are the team to take off the Yanks. But without going too much more into it, I love the Yankees at plus 370. You can parlay the Yankees and the Padres at 5 to 1 and plus 370. And it pays over plus 2,700. So that's 100 down and win $2,720 back. It's a fun one.

We have hit the 30 minute mark. We are out of here. The Aztecs beat the owls, because again, in the animal kingdom, how couldn't they? An Aztec eats an owl for dinner. Matter of fact, for a snap. We'll see ya, FAU. Thanks for playing. I got Miami the U.

You. Yeah, baby. Over Yukon. I'm sprinkling on Miami Money Line to win it all as well as SDSU to win it all. I'm going to take the under an SDSUFAU. I am going to take the San Diego Padres. And I'm going to you. take the New York Yankees.

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