The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NCAA Tournament Bets: Duke, UCLA, Kentucky, will Kansas repeat in March Madness?

Episode Date: March 14, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his betting insight and his favorite picks for the 2023 NCAA March Madness. Monaco discusses Jon Scheyer and the Duke Blue Devils' chances to win the tournament, whether John Calipari can take the Kentucky Wildcats back to the Final Four, whether Bill Self and the Kansas Jayhawks can repeat as national champions, and why he thinks Mick Cronin and the UCLA Bruins have a great chance to win it all. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. It's Money Line, Monaco, presented by FanDuel. The sports calendar is packed, and there is no place better to get in on the action than Fan Duel. So many sports to bet on NBA, March Madness around the corner. You got the PGA tour, hockey, and then some. The app is safe, secure, super easy to use. Fandul has exclusive offers, boost, and more all month long.

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Stop, Louisiana. Visit MDGamblinghelp.org, Maryland, 1-8-2-2-4-7-O-O Wyoming, or visit www.100 gambler.net, West Virginia. Hello, and welcome to another episode of Sports Gambling with MoneyLine, Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco. Happy March Madness Monday, March 13th. We are live on Amazon Amp and the Volume Sports YouTube channel. And wherever you get your podcast fired up for a full breakdown, we're going to go look.

Early leans on who I like to win each corner of the bracket, a sleeper, a corner of the bracket. Got my producer, Matt, chiming in with me to coast us through. And look, it's Monday. The bracket just came out. We're one sleep in. I'm not Larry locked to these, but I have gone pretty much sleepless in Seattle last night to now to do the research that I'm given you and hopes that you can benefit with your bracket wherever you're filling it out for fun, for work, with your fantasy squads, whoever it is out there

you're dancing with. This is a great time. And I want to preface the episode real quick. And again, subscribe rate review if you haven't, please, MoneyLy, Monaco on all things social. Action Network. My picks are under Alex. Monaco still above sea level 56% over 4,000 bets. We're an animal, but back to the tournament. All right? You may want to know as it debuted in 1939 how many times a repeat champion has happened. Kansas being last years, will they go back to back? Well, there's only been six ever. And most of them happened before any of us were alive. Now, Oklahoma State, Kentucky, San Francisco, Cincinnati were all before 1962, so I'll spare you the history. And of course, you remember John Wooden's UCLA's 60s and

70s run. They won seven in a row, which was obviously never repeated again. Duke ended that decade plus route in 91 and 92, as we remember. Shout out Grant Hill. And then Al Horford, Joe Kim Noah, Corey Brewer, and coached by Billy Donovan in 06 and 07, the Florida Gators, the last team, or teams, I should say, to go. go repeat. So will Kansas do it? Probably not. Furthermore, final four, 40.5% of one seeds have gotten there, 21.6% of two seeds have gotten there, and 18.2% of five seeds or below have gotten there. So just on conventional wisdom, just on trends from the past, definitely take a one seed, probably take two, splash in one two seed and take a long shot. As you got an 18.2% chance to go five seed

or below to get to the tournament. So without further ado, let's get into the breakdowns. We are going to start in the Midwest. Who are your early liens and who are you thinking in the Midwest? It's kind of a wide open region. Yeah, wide open region, battle of the state of Texas in the Midwest and I will be looking at a bracket as I'm talking so my eyes will be wandering if you're joining us on the volume YouTube channel but looking at Houston rightfully so the one seed as they should be plus 120 and I hate to go chalk here as there's no value to take the Houston Cougars as far as our local fan dual shop from a betting perspective but a team that lost three games all year yesterday being one of them without their star in the last.

lineup senior guard Marcus Saster you cannot take yesterday's L to Memphis too seriously as the committee and it bothers me and that's a conversation for another day clearly had Houston as the one seed win or lose they're atop the Ken Palm rankings the three games they lost all year was to Bama to Temple by one and then an out an outlier asterisk type loss as far as I'm concerned you don't have your best player that matters in the championship but a well-balanced club samson is leading one of the best, if not the best defensive team in the country. They give up 56.5 points per game, people. And you want to talk about a league that is contingent on over or under two

shooters a team and needing unbelievable competitive team defense to further expose that? This is the team to look no further than. And again, what Marcus Sasser and they have not announced when he'll come back, but this was a guy who was a starter on you since Final Four team in 2021. He missed the elite eight run last year because of a foot injury. Guy averages 17 a game, 17, 2 and 3. But looking at him couple with Jamal Sheed, Jamal Sheed, you have Mark, you have Walker.

All these dudes average around 9, 10, 11. Roberts averages around 11. So well-balanced club. And you're not going to find this tournament, three, four, five guys all contributing at around the same points per game with a leader like Sasser. I'm a big find the coach that has enough, I would say tournament acumen. Does he have enough in the history books to make you feel good about backing the team?

And Kelvin Samson absolutely is. And I think this defense with this particular tournament being wide open, I like Houston. And on a long shot in this bracket, and they didn't impress because of Penn State really being in the way. and I want you to hear this out because again, Big Ten basketball is interesting. I feel anyone can really beat anyone. Purdue ended up coming out of it. But I'm looking at Indiana here,

and at 12-1, I do feel there is some value. Now, if you're not familiar with Trace Jackson Davis, please get familiar, you will be watching him on Sundays on ESPN, ABC, Natty TV, Tuesday, Thursday, TNT nights. The man is a double-double machine. If it wasn't for Eady and Purdue, this is the best big in the big 10 far away far in away last four games he's had 24 twice 27 and 26 so what he can do as far as light up the scoreboard dominate the paint with the combo of hood

chafino as the one two punch for them they're dangerous and i think at 12 the one that is a lethal combo to have a double double machine and another guy that can really lead the offense I know Texas could be worth a sprinkle. They're old. They got three starting seniors. Rice, a red shirt senior. Carr, a red shirt senior. It's worth looking at them.

But for some reason with Texas, I just don't see them getting past a Houston. What I could see is a Trace Jackson Davis pulling a Carmelo. It's happened in the tournament before and becoming one of the best players in the tournament, putting the team on his back. and upsetting somebody. Now, I'm going to lead Houston,

but I'm going to go long shot Indiana at the moment. Because if they can get past Houston early, they could have a nice little path to where Texas could be the only one in their way as we kick off the Midwest. What do we got next? Good. Love the Indiana pick. I'm your Big Ten guy, Monaco.

So Indiana is a really good sleeper at 12 to 1. Love it. NBA point guard with the freshman kid, Jalen Hood, Schaffino. Sorry if I'm saying that wrong. and then T.J. D's instead as well. All right. So moving on to the East. Who are your early liens?

Who are you thinking? I know Marquette's, a lot of people taking Marquette, Purdue, and then even Duke's in there too. Yeah, East is interesting as we pull up the futures here. Purdue at plus 340. Now you're getting value in this corner of the bracket without question. Unlike Houston, the team to lose clearly top right, we work our way to Purdue, Marquette, Tennessee, Duke, Kentucky,

very interesting corner to break down. And I was doing a Big East kind of challenge a whole weekend covering with MSG this bracket. So I watched Big East basketball like it was my job because it was working my way till now. So I have a pretty good pulse on Marquette, a team that comes in winning nine straight games, a team that just won their first Big East tournament. By the way, since joining the first big East tournament. league in 2005. They win the regular season for just the third time in program history.

And this was a Marquette team that was, I believe, eighth, eighth in preseason poll to do this. I'm watching this team very closely. Colick, this point guard. Now, they're comparing them. They're giving Steve Nash, Santa Clara comparisons. That's a little bit ridiculous. I get it.

6.3, deceptive point guard lefty. The guys had eight games with 10 plus assists. He's averaging the second in the country in that category. He's at eight plus games with at least 17 and 6. To drop 19, 9 and 6 in college basketball, a little James Hardin-esque type line, you do not see that very often. In three of his last six games, Colette's giving you 10, 10, and 14 times.

So his facilitation of this offense with three guys, Cam Jones included, being top 100 in field goal percentage in the, entire country. That's three guys, not including Kolic, that are three of the most efficient fuel goal shooters in the league in this tournament. They play real defense. I'm watching them completely make Yukon play. I've watched them multiple times with Yukon play a game and people are like in Yukon potentially to the final four. I've watched them make other teams. play outside of their game, and that is the Shaka Smart way. And that, to me, is a big element of my thinking with Marquette as well.

Shaka Smart, who's done this multiple times in the tournament. He's been behind Cinderella's. He's been behind value plays before. But I'm watching Purdue as well. Purdue, a team that could have put away Penn State by double digits and covered the seven and a half in the Big Ten championship, almost lost on a Penn State game winning three if the guy remembered the triple, we might have not been here with Eady and the boys.

But I'm looking at Purdue. Look, they got a pair of freshmen, all right, between lawyer and Smith that have not really been playing that well. Lawyers shooting 31% and 22% since February 1st. Eadie is a monster, but it's a fickle way. I watch Painter include him in the offense, and he doesn't have a lot of patience either. I've watched a lot of rotation switches with this team as well.

They're different with different lineups. I'm not trust in Purdue. I'm not. I watched them barely beat Rutgers. I had the live bet Purdue to beat Rutgers two-thirds through the game. That is not comforting. I do not like Purdue to win this bracket, but I do think Marquette's combination of all-around team basketball

with a stud at point guard and a team that plays excellent team defense, I think they could do this. long shot wise, I have drinking the Duke Kool-Aid. I know it's a John Shire first time outing in the tourney, but you watch Jeremy Roach and Philopowski, and they give you 23 and 20 like they did against Virginia, and they win by 10 comfortably, and that game did not feel close.

Then you look at the Miami game, where they beat Miami comfortably as well, if Whitehead's given you 16 off the bench or at least double-ditch and this Duke team, and they are capable of with Mark Mitchell and Tyrone. Royce Proctor, giving you four or five guys in double figures, this is going to be a team that is tough to beat. And no one wants to talk Duke because it's not necessarily glamorous and it's Duke.

But the reality is they have not lost since February 11th. It's March 13th. They have played winning only basketball, including an ACC championship with their rivals at home, by the way, at home, North Carolina. I don't know how we don't. With a team that's beaten, Pitt, Miami, and Virginia in succession with no, not even batting it not.

You have to sprinkle at plus 750. 7.5 to 1 and then go look at the odds. Final 4, even, or excuse me, a championship. Once you get past the final 4, Duke is worth a sprinkle. So, to wrap it up, I'm on Marquette to win the corner at the moment. I'm on Duke as a sleeper. I might drink the Kool-Aid by the time Thursday.

We're locked. I may go Duke over Marquette all the way, but those are the two I am expecting to be at the end. What do we got next, Matt? Real quick, Duke, 30 to 1. Definitely worth a sprinkle on that one, to win it all. There we're going on. Let's go to, we are moving over to the south.

You got Bama, you got Arizona. I'm looking at other teams here. Bama, Arizona, Baylor, Crayton, Virginia, San Diego State are the favorites in there. who are you leaning towards in the south? Well, this is an interesting conference. San Diego Kid here, 15-01, San Diego State. I hate their draw first round. I hope they get past the first round.

Wanted to really give you the Aztecs, my guy, Matt Bradley, Dutch, your excellent defense, phenomenal program. Shout out toos, one of the best burritos you'll ever have. Neither here nor there. I got to give you Nate Oats and an out. Alabama team that I see a really hard time at plus 190 not taking. Now, I know Arizona impressed, and they went out of nowhere in a game that I don't think they should have won Pack 12 ship against UCLA.

They pull it out. Euro step in the Fiba Club of this tourney. But I'm looking at Alabama. You watch what Quinterly and Brandon Miller did against A&M and the ship. I mean, I thought A&M at 5 to 1 was worth a sprinkle to win the SEC future. I took an L on that. I double down on A&M. I caught a rough one watching Alabama just roll. And again, Nate Oates comes from the Buffalo ilk. He knows how to coach Scrappy. He knows how to muck it up in this tournament. We've seen him do that before. Now he's rocking with one of the best offenses I feel in the country. And it's a hybrid mix.

Everyone's saying, do they have a bad defense? Or you could go the opposite, optimistically looking at the painting. And they're just a high-paced club. But Quinterley's been around forever. Journeyman via Nova, believe it or not, Jay Wright recruited. Brandon Miller, again, is NBA-bound. You look at the balance of these guys on this starting five. I got a hard time talking myself out of Alabama,

a team that beat Houston, a team that can put up 85-90, no problem. I think they're going to be too overwhelming in this bracket to be stopped. Baylor crushed everybody. Virginia let everybody down. I know some sharps that had Creighton, which leads me to my 8 to 1 sleeper.

I would say if anyone gets in the way of Bama, we're talking about potentially Creighton. Now, they're a fascinating club. Shout out to my guy, Hearley, here. This is a deep five base, offense, four or five guys and double figures. Now, here's the thing with Coke Brenner, a guy who's in the seven foot club who can hit the three, by the way.

This man, now go look at the Villanova box score, by the way. Villanova, and I thought they would maybe come out of the Big East as a sleeper. They were humming. They were in unbelievable form. Till they ran into Creighton, who posted 87, and we're talking about five guys and double figures. I mean, you got Nemhard, you got Shireman who can knock it down. They are a also top 10 defensive team that showed you how much they can shut down a

hum and offense as we watch in that Villanova game. So I know this is a part of the bracket that maybe you would want to go with a coach of Bob Huggins, West Virginia, something of that ilk. I don't know necessarily that I want to go anyone other than Chris. Creighton and and they're fascinating team because again, I look at coaches and then I look at solid nucleus and these guys, four or five guys in double figures, I think an early bounce in the Big East tournament has them licking their wounds coming in relatively rested. I like their first round draw. I like Creighton on a small sprinkle at 8 to 1. Now will they get out of this bracket?

Probably not. This is to me in Alabama. to lose Arizona to capitalize type corner. But look, we're talking sleepers. Creighton 8 to 1. Last but not least. Moving over to the West real quick, San Diego State 15 to 1. Not bad. I like Creighton and San Diego State there as well.

Love it. Moving over to the West, the West region. What are your early liens? I know Kansas is there. UCLA is there. Those are the favorites. Who are you thinking in the West? Matt, I love Kansas.

Plus, excuse me, I love Kansas to lay an egg. I love a riled, pissed off, destined for greatness, led by two seniors and Ocas and Tiger Campbell. Give me UCLA a plus 340. And there's a reason they're plus 340 to Kansas is plus 330. And look, I bid it bad too. I thought Kansas, I had Kansas and UCLA and San Diego State and I could have retired three to one to win their respective conference tournaments over the weekend future. I thought it was a gorgeous ticket.

Little did I know only San Diego State would deliver. But I'm watching Kansas, who laid the egg versus Texas, and they're two. Jalen Wilson gives you 24, and they get smoked by 20, by 20. And I know Grady Dick's a freshman, 3 of 11, Ofer was six points from three-point land, ain't going to cut it, DeWan Harris, who is returning from the championship bill self-rosse from last.

year is not giving me enough I'm not trusting Kansas remind yourself a team that had seven losses a team that lost three straight to Kansas State TCU and Baylor in the middle of the season and I know they have impressed lately but I just don't see them winning it all it goes back to the top of the show there's been six teams ever to do this and the last one to do it was Noah Horford and Brewer all looking at themselves and saying we're running it back and we're we know we're all going to the league. So it takes a special club to do it. I'm off Kansas, but I love the timing of UCLA.

Now, again, this is the team that has a couple of guys that made it to the final four against Gonzaga. That epic game, sucks. You remember it. And they lost. And I'm sure that game has stuck with them. Now, Hawkes is a 17 and 8 guy, headbanded assassin. Campbell gives you 13 and about four or five times,

but he's an unbelievable. Steady veteran prowess piece at the point guard spot and you look at the help they've been given now Jalen Clark going down hurts But the the combo of what Campbell and Hawkes have seen and again Mick Cronin We can go there all day as far as backing a veteran coach that can really coach you up and Has taken less talented rosters further. Let's call a spade a spade as far as UCLA basketball But this team to me can win it all. And I am actually flirting on a Monday with taking UCLA all the way. Now, it's the combo.

It's the perfect combo to me. Several guys that have several key leaders that have been there, a coach that have been there, a team that's perfectly pissed off. And I think that's worth me. mentioning in this tournament. Who is pissed off for greatness? UCLA just got a Pac-12 title robbed of them in the last two minutes of that game. They lost by a bucket. They're going to use that as fuel the entire tournament. Plus 340 is value, in my humble opinion, for a team to win that corner.

Now, sleeper-wise, look, this is the most competitive bracket. This has Gonzaga, and we may get that rematch in the Sweet 16 with UCLA. because the Zagsar 3. Timmy still in it, by the way. You have Yukon. People are making a case for. You have Kansas, UCLA, Yukon, and Gonzaga,

and I'm not giving you any of them as my sleeper. I'm giving you Mike Miles and they see you as my sleeper in this corner at 850. Now here's the thing. This team,

people don't remember they beat Kansas by 23 in Kansas, in Kansas earlier this year. They have top 10 talent. Look, Mike Miles will be playing at the next level. He was the big 12 preseason player of the year, by the way, before he went down with an injury and he went out for a month plus. Chuck O'Bannon, Damien Bow, two senior veteran presences in the locker room on the court. huge. But just to put this, if you won't play this game, Kansas loses to Texas by 20, TCU almost beat Texas, lost 60660. Now, a TCU team that to me can beat anybody as far as talent.

And if Miles, similarly to the thinking I have with a one player going berserk mindset, who could that be on any given team? I think Miles, could be a guy that could do that, put a team on his back, but he's got to do it in the most difficult division. I think we got to go UCLA, but I got to give you a sleeper. I'll go TCU long shot at plus 850 to wrap up the show. Shout out to Live on that.

Yeah, yeah, big ups to co-host of the BGSE show, Live. So yeah, just to recap, the four picks I have, just going down the line. I just mentioned, we're going UCLA at the moment in the west with a TCU sleeper looking at the south

I'm going Bama with a Creighton potential sleeper looking at the Midwest I got to go Houston but I think Trace Jackson Davis could be special 12 to 1 Indiana as a sleeper East region I'm sorry Edie I'm off you Marquette

plus 370 I may be convincing myself Duke comes out of that corner at plus 750. They are my sleeper to wrap up the show. All right, we're going to get out here with a fan duel ad. This March, take your first shot at college hoops with Fan Dual Sportsbook and get 10 times

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Sign up today by going to fendual.com forward slash Monaco and make every moment more with Fandul all tournament long. Disclam. 21 plus in select states. First online real money wager, only $10. Deposit required refund issued as non-witrable bonus bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See full terms at fanduel.com. Ford slash sportsbook, Fanduel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC.

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