The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFC & AFC Championship Bets: 49ers-Eagles & Bengals-Chiefs | NFL Playoffs

Episode Date: January 28, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting insight and best bets for the NFL Conference Championship Round of the NFL playoffs featuring Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs taking on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC. He also shares his picks for the NFC Championship game as Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles take on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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It is here, people, the conference championship weekend. The weekend we've all been waiting for. The final four to see who goes to Arizona for this year's Super Bowl. Chiefs hosting the Bengals, Eagles hosting the Niners. We are live on Amazon AMP. Make sure to check us out there as well as the Money Line Monaco podcast. on Volume Sports. Please, if you haven't subscribed, rated, reviewed, goes a long way.

If you've been rocking with me, if you haven't been rocking with me, just so you know who you're listening to, two losing weeks out of 20 on the Volume Sports Network, five picks against the spread every week end. And here we are. Three and one against the spread last weekend in the divisional round. the three and three against the spread wild card round. So we're six and four ATS coming in to two games.

So the worst I can do is lose you on the juice. If I somehow go 0 and 2 and I expect a 2 and 0 outing for these games, we netted just a little bit of an L. You know, you played, you entertained, but no, we won you over half a G, betting 50 a game on the season. We want to end strong. And here we go. Let's dive in and look, you know me, I'm pretty stats heavy.

I'm pretty trends heavy. This is a different week. You have to look at this week a little differently. Look at the painting like a championship artist, a Picasso, if you will, who are going to be the big time players making the big time plays. And let's start out down the Jersey turnpike at Lincoln Financial, right around the corner from me in New York. The Fly Eagles Fly, Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Niners.

This is a riveting matchup for so many reasons. Now, I actually went viral on TikTok this week shouting out three reasons why. Brock Purdy and the Niners are not going into Phillyland and taking a W. This puppy's got over 400,000 views, but most importantly, over 3,500 comments. It's only been up for 48 hours. I'm getting dismantled. You want to work in sports betting? You want to work in sports broadcasting.

Go to that comment section, read it, and decide if you still want to do it. You can't. Colin talks about not reading Twitter mentions yet. Don't read TikTok comments in particular. Niner fans are coming at me like I did something to him. No, I'm in the business of winning. I was on the Niners last week, minus three and a half. I spoke incredibly well and highly about.

about the San Francisco 49ers. That was the Dallas Cowboys. That wasn't the Philadelphia Eagles. The Dallas Cowboys had won one road playoff game since 92. And it was the week prior to the Niners. This is not your neighborhood playoff team in Philly. Now, first out I want to throw out to you just to put it in your noggin is that when Jalen Hertz suits up, this team is 15 and won this season.

and when they're at home, they're a special three. Now, we already know they're far and away the number one team in the first half, and that's what I want you to think about. Look at what happened in the first half against the Giants. Score first drive. Stop. Turnover. Score.

This was 28-0 before you could even get your second bowl with tostitos and salsa. Or if you're like me, local chips in Chaloo. This is what Philly can do to you out the gate and jump on you without the gate. Here's what I'm nervous with with this Niners team. And this is where you have to watch. I watch everything. I watch not, of course, just sports radio.

I'm watching betting on TV. I'm listening to podcast. I, as part of the job, watch and take in everything. I want to hear what the narrative is, the sports radio narrative, the sports betting narrative. I'll tell you one thing. Everybody is loving the Niners narrative and Brock Purdy becoming the first rookie quarterback

to win a conference championship. It's a previous 0 and 4 number. Four tugs, nine mistakes for these four men. Sean King, Big Ben, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, in that order. None of them won this spot. Here's the scary thing from Brock. He's done this cozy one-two punch here at home

in the playoff. It's been unbelievable. They've played out of their mind. I'm not taking anything away from them. I'm not sitting here saying as a fan, man, I don't like the Purdy story. I like the Purdy story. I'm concerned deeply that a top passing defense, the number one passing defense in the league, is going to make Shanahan drum up some sick twisted, three-headed monster running.

scheme to beat this Philly squad. And Philly is susceptible to the run, but they're lights out, shout out, volume, sports, Darius sleigh when it comes to the past. They're number one in the league. San Fran is the best run D. They have a mediocre past D. That's where it's going to get interesting

from a chess match perspective. But I think this game comes down to in a lot of ways. And this sounds like it shouldn't be the case, but it's a rookie on the road in the playoffs for the first time ever. This is going to come down to situational football. This is going to come down to time of possession. This is going to come down to who wins the turnover battle.

Who gets better field position when these three and outs happen? There's going to be half a dozen to a dozen three an ounce in this game. Whose punter shows up more? Will Robbie Solid Gold miss his first playoff kick ever? these little things in this kind of a game where you have two top defenses and a rookie, they have to be extra prevalent. I don't know how they're not. And again, I watch everything and I try to think stylistically,

what will this game be? It will be very similar to last week's Niners Cowboys game. Now, if you're thinking about San Fran, just while I have you in the room selling you, you had nine points in the first half against Dallas. You had three quarters of football where you had a field goal, two field goals, and no points. Is that not a little concerning considering the drop-off of Dallas's offense versus Philly's offense?

Philly scores more points per game on the year than this San Francisco team. Philly out gains San Francisco. You want to go tip for tat. Now, the personnel for Philly here is all world. Everyone is crowning San Francisco's All-Star lineup, Debo, C-Mack, Trent Williams, Kittle. Don't get me wrong. Stars all over the place. Stump the Schwab little note for you.

18 of the 22 starters for the Eagles are pro bowlers or pro bowl alternates. 18 of 22. Here's the other caveat here. Dilley at home. How has their quality of play been? because again, you can throw a lot of trends and a lot of things out the window for this match, look at it, style on style, and make your assessment.

But I want to know what is Philly done at home to protect this field, this court, and what has San Fran done in the same space against quality opponents? Well, I got something very evident for you right here, Jerry. Take out your pen and Jack Klompis write it down. This Niners team has to go against a Philly team that is 4-0 straight up and 3-and-1 against the spread.

At home, at home. First teams that were in the playoffs this year throughout the regular season. Four outings, four outings against playoff opponents at home. Four victories. Three covers. The line is less than a field goal. Now, I'm going against the spread. Picker on the pod.

Rarely do we go money line. We do occasionally when it's around one, one and a half. Take the Eagles on the money line. I'll be sick for you if they win by one or two and plus two and a half covers for San Frang. Only minus 143 on Fanduil right now. That's 143 down to win 100. Do it for me.

Just please. But here's the other thing. San Francisco. They're on a 12-game win streak. They're unstoppable. Over 30 points a game with Purdy under center. who have they played? You have to ask yourself that.

On the road this season, Costco sample size, the whole season, they played one playoff team on the road. One playoff team on the road and it was Pete Carroll's bubble gum chewing Seattle Seahawks. A divisional game already penciled in. So strength of schedule-wise And yes, Philly hasn't played anyone

Either on the season, if you look at it, not a tough strength of schedule. I'm not going to sit here and say Philly had a insane run. Sam Fran didn't. Both had very, very Not difficult, not Rainbow Road Mario Kart schedules, all right? Third out of fourth on that chart.

But neither here nor there, this team, San Fran, with Brock has not been tested by a quality opponent on the road yet. And I say this a lot, but it matters. Southern California, kid, I live in the Northeast. I went from warm to cold. I'm not saying San Fran, San Diego, but it's still California. All right, it gets a little windy.

It gets a little chilly, but it doesn't get northeast. You hate yourself type weather. It doesn't get windy city. I don't know what I'm doing with my life type cold. This stadium where they roll up Jack Frost snowballs and homo match you jugular. This is the time to consider home field advance. This is the time to consider a ruckus home field environment. And let me say this because I'm sure you're wondering,

and I did dig this up, how many one seeds make it? to the Super Bowl or how many times do both one seeds make it to the Super Bowl? Believe it or not, not that many. Only 13 times in the previous 48 Super Bowls. But guess what? The last time it happened, 2017, Philly Fly Eagles fly on their field against, you know who to send them to the Super Bowl. to take on the number one seed Patriots and win that trophy.

I think the Eagles are the team to potentially win the Super Bowl. I haven't got there yet. I'll take it day by day, Casper Mattress, sleep by sleep. I could see this team winning it all. They can beat you in so many creative ways. Hertz can ball or he can dual threat or he can delegate. 18 of 20. This is what's scared.

The Niners push you around with their offensive line. Well, the best offensive line in this final four is the Philadelphia Eagles. You think I'm wrong? Ask anybody who has any football acumen who the best offensive line is left. And they got their hands full with both on the boys. But I cannot understate. No rookies ever won this spot, and it's for good reason. If this was in San Fran, I'd be talking completely different.

This is in Philly. 2017, the one seed. We must under Armour Protack. Fly Eagles fly minus two and a half and on the money line. Situational football. All lean the NFL MVP over the rookie on campus. Game number two.

Oh, maybe I'm fired up. I don't think you can be more fired up than I am for this game. Because nobody last week was on the bankers. Your boy money line, Monica, all over them. Plus five and a half. I didn't see anybody in sports media, sports radio. I saw a couple of sharp people. in the betting space,

but I'm going to give myself flowers. I didn't see nearly the amount of tickets that I respect of people in the industry on the Bengals last week. Your boy took out the interim Judge Gaville and went to the Cincinnati, Ohio bank, cashed out some full a million, Dave and Buster's tickets.

That was a setup. And we get emotional when we get to the window. And you have to think about that in sports betting. Dude, I am an emotional. I'm a science guy. I'm 10 years into meditation. I grew up with a Jewish father

and Italian Catholic mother with Buddhist police. I grew up with three religions and two parents. I look for signs. I've caught an emotional else. Learn from my mistakes. That was a setup. Joe Burrell does best when he's an underdog. He does the most when he's doubted.

And he always shows up when no one expects him to. But guess what? That ain't the narrative this week, baby. Everyone. And I mean everyone is J-O-C-K-I-N-G jocke-I-N-G jocke. Number nine. And I don't like it at all. Fellow volume sports colleague on with Colin once a week.

must listen television. But he is now the favorite. And again, this is going to hit your ears. This is like a pickum right now. The line has flipped and flopped. Flipped and flopped in a way, I can't even explain. This line opened at Bengals plus three.

Swung five and a half points to Bengals minus two and a half. Patrick Mahomes was seen without a walking boot, maneuvering about the Saturday Night Fever Cabin. All of a sudden, he does a Travolta move or two. walks off the podium, the line moves back. I talk to you now. It's a virtual pick-um. So it's really hard to sit here and say,

Mahomes is an underdog now. Burroughs a favorite. It's plus one. I'm staring right now at plus one for the chiefs, but they are a favorite on the money line at minus 118 to minus 112. It's bizarre line move. I'm going to sit here and tell you right now with conviction. with ethos pathos and logos.

With, if I still had bar mitzvah money left, I would put all of it, all of it, on the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. Maybe I'm fired up to say that. I can't wait to fade the Bengals. Everybody is doing what they did last week, and I can't wait to be right, again, about a Bengals result.

Joe Burroughs, Patrick Mahomes, Dad. He's got him in a crib. He's feeding him Gerber baby applesauce. They're calling it Burrowhead. Stir the pot. Stir the pot. Stop acting. Like because Patrick Mahomes has a nice sounding voice, he doesn't have DOG. Patrick Mahomes will hurt your grown man feelings and still talk to you nice. That should be more intimidate than coming in your face talking Philly smack and doing it that way. It's almost scarier to have a Mike Tyson closer sounding voice than a I'm going to go Gerald Butler 300 on you leader of men type vocals and still cook you in your noggin. You're grown man knocking.

Look, dude, Patrick Mahomes is from Texas. Do you know about Texas football growing up? I got half a dozen friends that grew up playing Texas football. You grow up at 12th. You're hitting adult men at 14. This man is going to prove to the whole football world again. Again, again. He is the greatest in all the land.

And here we go. The narrative is so ass backwards. And let me tell you this. We're acting like Zach Taylor is Andy Reid. Dude, I said this joke on my MSG show, better half hour. If I'm putting together wedding tables and I got Andy Reid and Sean McDermott and I'm placing them at tables, Andy reads at table number one, Sean McDermott is in Tim Buck 2, back right corner table 9. He's sitting next to the kids table when it comes to quality coaches.

Nice guy, great man. Terrible. Terrible game plan last week. You have to call him out. And there is no accident. There are four offensive coaches left in this tournament. Four, four, four when it comes to offensive coaching. You're going to be strangely, strangely hit upside your bad beat.

dome when you watch what great coaching is on display. And might I say this? Patrick Mahomes, it's his plant foot. Have you played Madden with Patrick Mahomes? The guy can dip, dodge, duck, dance, maneuver however you want and still make the throws. They can create underhand throws. He can go behind the back Mugsy Bokes with it. He can go Harlem Globetrotter 316. the guy is going to be able to move the football. Now I will tell you this. If you want to take the Bengals, let me remind you that this Patrick Mahomes team is 16 and 2

in their last 18 games at Arrowhead Stadium. 16 and 2. Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, 9 and 3 straight. up. The Chiefs at home in that run outscoring opponents by a terrifying margin. I mean, you should be terrified. Almost over a hundred points per game on outscoring opponents in home playoff games in the short sample size this Chiefs team has at home. Let me end on this. Patrick Mahomes has never been a home playoff dog in his career. Patrick Mahomes hasn't even been a playoff underdog since the first year he was in the playoffs in the AFC divisional round. Patrick

Mahomes has only been an underdog less than 10 times in his career all. Well above the number, you don't want to hear if you like the Bengals. 8, 3 and 1 against the spread. Patrick Mahomes is as an underdog, and his 12 times he has been. 8, 3 and 1. This is a pick-ham game. Everyone's on the Bengals.

The most bet team in this tournament since they beat the Bills to win the Super Bowl is the Bengals. Last time I checked, does Terry Benedict still have his casino running? because there's not a lot of Danny Oceans out there taking shekels from Vegas. I'm seeing upside of 77% of tickets on the Bengals. So you go ahead and take the road favorite, who in the last 12 games is 3, 8, and 1 against the spread in the playoffs. Road favorites, 3, 8 and 1 against the spread.

I'm going big on the Kansas City Chiefs. I'm Hank's big. And I have a best bet to wrap it up with here real quick. I think taking under 46 and a half in the Eagles, Niners game is the play. Look at that 9-6 first half against the Cowboys. This is the only way that this overhits is Philly cooks on offense. There is no way, no how this Philly defense that gets to the quarterback,

that has 20 interceptions, that is top three, and turnover margin is not going to make this young kid make a mistake. There's just no way. And there's no way, no how. We're going to watch this Philly team move the ball up and down seamlessly like they did against the Giants last week. From a trend standpoint, for the last five Eagles games have gone under the total,

which was at 45. You're getting a point and a half of value here. In the last four times, these two teams have danced. And again, not a trend that's super viable for this or prevalent, but just so you know, culture, culture to culture, these guys have danced four times. It's gone under four times. San Fran is also notorious for playing low-scoring playoff games.

Four out of their last five playoff games have gone under 40 points. So you, again, look at last week, and that was in San Francisco. I think Philly's defense is far and away better than the Cowboys D. But this game is going to be so situational as I talk to you off the top with. You have to take the under. Take the first half under while they play chess, not checkers, trying to feel each other out, maybe saving their best play calls. The bomb little NFL blitz with it for your third and fourth quarters.

I like first half under. I like total game under. First time since 1990, all four games last week went Scuba Steve under. Five and one on the over Wildcar weekend for what it's worth. But the quality in defenses, even Cincinnati has a top 10 red zone defense. All of these defenses have quality and great coaches and unbelievable. personnel. I'm going Chiefs. I'm going

Eagles. I'm double Kistanza dipping on the Eagles minus two and a half and money line. I'm telling you take the money line. Chiefs on the money line. Eagles, Niners under 46 and a half. Bada Bing, Bada boom.

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You already know I'm on the Chiefs Kingdom. My best bet, though, is Eagles Niners scuba Steve under defensive chess match between two top three Ds. Take the under 46 and a half. So football fans, don't miss out. Place your first $5 bet to get $150 in bonus bets, win or lose with promo code Monaco. make every moment more with Van Duel, official sportsbook partner of the NFL.