The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Division Winners: Will Chiefs & Bills dominance continue? Bears to shock North?

Episode Date: September 2, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his best bet to win every division in the NFL for the 2023 season. Are the Cowboys the better pick over the Eagles in the NFC East? Will the Chiefs continue their AFC West dominance? Who takes the stacked AFC North featuring the Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, and Browns? And will Aaron Rodgers be enough to lift the Jets past the Bills in the AFC East? #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. All right. Welcome into another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco, Alex Monaco hopping in for a huge episode. This to me is everything that I hang my fro on. This is the NFL divisional picks for the season, baby. We are one week away from the kickoff of the NFL season. So I'm going through.

If you've been rocking with me, you've seen me break down by win totals and rankings within the divisions throughout this offseason. Now we're going to put pen to paper, sign on the dotted line. Who I got, hold it against me. Rock with me. However we do it, it's me, Danny Ocean, and the Ocean's 11 boys. All betters against Terry Benedict in Vegas. So let's dive in.

We're going division by division. I'm going to coast through this with you like I'm surfing the Southern California way, baby Spacoli. with it. Let's start in the division I grew up in in sunny San Diego. It's the AFC West. I'm going to give you a few reasons each team and we're going to go through it logically with a side of Jewish Italian emotion, which is half of my half of my half in both sides. Let's dive in here. AFC West. It's the Kansas City Chiefs. Sometimes we overcomplicate things. We overcomplicate things. Sometimes we sit here and we say with a LeBron, with a

great team could be a player or an organization. And we question, what was it 365 days ago with this team? They're not going to be able to have the same firepower on offense with one zero down in Ace Ventura land, Tyreek Hill. This team last year led the league in most points per game, most passing yards, most overall yards. Patrick Mahomes wins the MVP. He wins a Super Bowl. the guy is 64 and 16 as a starter. 800 winning percentage. He has not lost less than 12 games since 2017. Really put that in your gambling noggin.

Reason number one, you are backing the Chiefs with the number one quarterback in the league. It's Patrick Mahomes, the baseball player disguised as the greatest quarterback in the league, and then there's everybody else. They haven't lost less than 12 games since 2017. You have a top coach, an Andy, big, red, Reed, and you have the number one tied end in the league. Those big three to use an NBA term at the helm, until one of them falls out of their prime,

it'll be Kelsey first. They are the team to beat. Here's the other element. You don't think this, but this chiefs in the trenches a lot better on the offensive line then you would really think it. Do you know, Stump the Schwab, that this menacing front seven for Philly didn't touch Mahomes? He didn't get sacked one time in the Super Bowl.

Her PFF, this is a top three, top five offensive line. Bring it in Donovan Smith, who by the way has given up six sacks in his war season in the NFL. So you're going to have top shelf protection with the number one quarterback, the number one coach. in the league outside of, of course, all-time Belichick, note disrespect. And you have a division, as I briefly move off of it, in utter dysfunction. Two men who are not Gerald Butler leaders of 300 adults. Two, Josh McDaniels is a certified coordinator. I'm sorry.

He's never going to be a head coach in this league that wins. And I got to be honest, Brandon Staley and the Chargers. I've already said this as a San Diego kid. We lost the team up the Disneyland 5 Freeway. You can't have Ron Burgundy, great weather, and championships in San Diego. There is Dean Spanos Karma with this team. They lose the third biggest postseason game

in the history of the playoffs against the Jags. The Chargers can't have nice things. Don't overcomplicate the Divi. The Chiefs are winning it. Minus 175, Pending where you shop. It's an absolute must-fire. Let's talk next division. F.C. East. Here we go again with trying, and I'm not saying this. I'm not saying this.

The Jets are my team out of the AFC. I am emotionally purchasing this New York Jets team to go all the way. But for them to win this division and really dethrone the bills who, oh, by the way, have won the division three years in a row, you really have to be special. And continuity in this league is everything. it's a quarterback leak and you have to have a defense. And the number one reason why you got to back the bills to win this AFC East is a 13 win club last year with the best in the AFC point differential. So points for you score, points against you give up. No team better than the Buffalo tables, ladders, and chairs in the tailgate section bills.

This team only second behind the nine-er. in that category are an incredibly complete roster. Only the offensive line do I truly have question marks about. They allow the fewest points in the AFC on defense. And they were banged up last year. Yes, Vaughn Miller is not playing in the first month, but the top three, in my humble opinion, tandem of Micahide and Jordan Poir are back with your Davies White back there.

Ed Oliver in the front. You go out, you draft another weapon for Josh Tim, the toolman, Alan, and Kincaid. really remind yourself. Reason number two, this team is virtually unbeatable at the Bill's Mafia land. Now, I'm going to work my way to Orchard Park this fall and see a game in person. This Bill's team, two out of the last three years under Josh Allen and McDermott,

seven and one at home. You have to be damn near perfect. You got a bowl a $290 out of $300 to beat this team at home. And the reality is it's a top five quarterback who had a mini, not all the way torn UCL, but mini Brock Purdy injury midway through the season. And he's a grown man, Goliath that battled through it. So now you get a healthier Josh Allen, a more revitalized team. And you go tip for tat on off the field reasons to want to be great this year.

The Buffalo Bills are that. I got to take the bills to win the division. We're going Chucky McChalkerson to start out. on the show. Let's talk about the AFC North now. I'm sitting here and I'm looking at the AFC North and you as a lawyer

or a salesman selling you a car you don't need can make a case for all four teams. I'm not sitting here saying that there is a bad bet. Now you play with the Steelers of the Browns, chalk with the Bengals, little plus 210 with the Ravens flock. But I'm assessing everything.

I watch a lot of film. I watch a lot of interviews. I look. I study. I look at turnover. I make a lot of assessments before I make my plays. I'm over 57% by the way, last two years on the volume. Picking against the spread plus money. Lamar Jackson. Okay. I'm sorry, miss outcast Jackson. You're going to get the best version of this man this season. Mark my betting words. And I'm put my money where my mouth is, you've seen in his entire future MVP, again, career. This division beats up on each other, unlike any other division. Everybody went three and three last year in the AFC North.

They beat up, as I've said on a previous episode, each other like the Grancowski's at dinner time, all right? Who's getting the bread? Who's getting the last meatball? They just dismantle each other. So what is the difference this season in this division? To me, it's a combination of off the field and on the field, company culture and timing. Timing is everything when Harry met Sally.

Do yourself a solid. Trust the timing of life. Here we have a Ravens team. Not only with Great Valley plus 210, not only with an over two to one payout, who is finally locked in their franchise quarterback. He won against a company culture that does not budge often on paying prize money for skill position players. Let's not forget, Joe Flacco had to win a Super Bowl before he got that fat deal. Lamar Jackson next to Patrick Mahomes is the second winningest quarterback in this

AFC, not Joe Burrow, not Josh Allen, not anybody else, but this man. Number eight is 45 and 16 with a 738 winning percentage in the National Football League. You throw Greg Roman out the late uncle Phil window, you bring in an adult in the room who ironically is 34 years old and Todd Monkin. Offensive coordinator for the back-to-back Natty champion, Georgia Bulldogs.

What is the first thing Lamar has said about rocking with him? He is open to suggestions. Remember when Cam Newton mocked the media said I have a suggestion box throw in it. Greg Roman wanted to run an offense and not lean in to communication with his quarterback.

Per PFF. Top four offensive line. Shout out Ronnie Stanley. Top three run game in the league coming back. If J.K. Dobbins can stay healthy, it's going to be sick with it. They finally dress up a little bit of skill position players behind him. O'Dell Beckham, drafting stay flowers, great off the ball and separation. Mark Andrews top three tight end. The reality is there's Joey Burrow injury concerns already.

I'm not saying the Bengals are making the playoffs they are. I'm not saying the Bengals aren't capable of making a Super Bowl run. They certainly are. You have the best defense in this division on your side with the best offensive line and a company culture that could not be higher vibes. Outside of the Jets, I do not feel like a team had a morale boost higher, at least in the AFC, than this Baltimore Ravens team, who gave up only second most points on defense to the Buffalo.

bills. The dude, Lamar, is going to give you everything. He's paid. It's locked in. We are locked in. I'm taking the Ravens at plus 210 at your local shop. And we round out the least compelling division in the AFC before we turn the page to the NFC in the AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars are winning this division at minus 155 pending where you punch the ticket. Take it and do it now. before it goes to a Chiefs minus 175 minus 180. The Prince that was promised. Shout out Nick Wright. Not only a top shelf flow in the game.

All right. Some of the best hair I've ever seen. Goldie locks under center. The guy is special. The guy is working his way to T law into the top five quarterback conversation in this league. A guy that took a worst to first team. Do we realize that Urban Meyer when he came into the league, T-Law. Off of Dabo Sweeney, Dabo Sweeney, unbelievable. Clemson locker room. He comes in and he's got a Van Wilder

coach partying like a UFC Ryan Reynolds frat star at quarterback, at coach. That's what he dealt with. He goes from three wins to nine in one season. Worse to first. And I'll talk out that statistic when we get to the NFC North. The only team above the rim in point differential and in division output. On the other side, the Costanza opposite of the Chargers blow in a 27-7 lead a halftime. Who came back the Jacksonville Jaguar? So you have the best quarterback in the division by a country mile. You got two teams completely starting over. The Colts and the Texans. That is going to be trial and error. Look at Jonathan Taylor. Thank you, Ursay for nothing, Dr. Evil of owners. They are going to have a mountain to climb up, especially on the

defense aside with Anthony Richardson. CJ Stroud has to, again, completely come in and take over everything for a Texas team that was unwatchable last year. And the Titans are the worst form they've been in under Vrable since he's taken over at head coach. I mean, D'Andre Hopkins over under four and a half receiving touchdowns as your wide receiver won. It's all on King Henry again, mediocre trenches for the Titans.

So you have the best quarterback, you have a Super Bowl coach, and you have stability from last year, not to mention Calvin Ridley in the fold. The Jacksonville Jaguars are probably next to the Niners, the easiest punch of a ticket as we turn to the NFC. And I'm starting out on the E-Channel, baby. The NFC East riveting yet again. Number one reason why I have, and it is tasty.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you otherwise, that this NFC East and the Oscar goes to Jerry Jones, the Dallas Cowboys are winning the NFC East and the number one reason why, and you don't want to sit here and admit it. But this team, this Cowboys team has history on their side combination with, I'm going to go tip for tat, the best defense. outside of the front seven of Philly in, barring the Niners, of course,

not only the entire conference, you can make a case of the entire NFL. Let's talk this out like adults, crack a beverage. History will repeat itself. No one since Donovan McNabb, pre-smartphone, sidekick one,

T-9 word on your local cell, has a team won in the NFC East back-to-back division titles, not since two, thousand four almost the same year we've seen back to back Super Bowl when there's Patriots Patriots has a team come back and done it again we look at this Philly team front sevens disgusting okay the fact that they have Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis from a championship front front four in the Georgia Bulldogs is disgusting and they got Noah Smith we know about the adults

in the room Brandon Graham Fletcher Cox Josh sweat on that on that line pass rusher underrated again this year, Hassan Reddick. It's disgusting. Bradbury Slay, it's a great defense, but they are a different defense when they do not get to the quarterback. Mahomes left with a clean jersey. They didn't touch them. The game was never

in question. And I emotionally took the Eagles. A 14 win club now with a first place schedule. Going against a Cowboys team. Now, let's really talk this out. Who's the best defensive player in this division? Tell me it's not Micah Parsons. Michael

Parsons, second year in a row, second and defensive player of the year, is the most lethal man in the division. I'm hoping you get scared by this if you are on Philly. I really hope you get scared by what I'm about to tell you for a second reason here. The Dallas Cowboys were the number one team in defensive takeaways last year. Number one in the league, not your fly eagle, Napoleon Dynamite, fly Eagles, Philly. Not the Niners, your Jerry Jones Dallas Cowboys. Almost two per game.

Sixth in points allowed. You add Stefan Gilmore, Trayvon Diggs and Stefan Gilmour far and away, far and away, the best past catching corners in the NFL. Now, I'll give you a lean on Eagles having a better front seven. I'll give you that. But what you should be scared about is that this Dallas Cowboys team, not only who doesn't have a third of a first place schedule, i.e. Eagles have to play the Chiefs. Cowboys don't.

That could be the kicker in an 11 and 6 and 10 and 7 divisional difference and winning the ring. You get the value with the Cowboys, but really let this sit in. your number one in takeaways. You lead the league in 33, yet the most fumble recoveries on defense. And Dak Prescott leads the league in interceptions and only to the Niners, your top two in turnover differential.

Ladies and gentlemen, also put it in your pocket. When you get to the Super Bowl, like the Eagles, you'll lose pieces. There's turnover. There's a subtle go in and start to look. Yes, on that front seven, they have depth.

A couple of pieces in the defensive backfield gone. I don't love. Also, thinking about the fact that this Dan Quinn D, coupled with McCarthy, comes in on all sides of the football with a number one red zone efficiency offense and a number one takeaways in defense. Again, I can go on and on and on, but a Mike McCarthy head coach who's had three separate runs of 10 plus wins in his career, knowing that he went 11 and 5 in his fourth year in Green Bay and a fifth year Super Bowl run. Top four offense from last year, number one in Red Zone, and on the defensive side, I can go on all day. I just sit here and contest that this Philadelphia Eagles team is going to do it again.

14 wins ain't easy to do. And Jalen hurts. and I love the guy, but he's not a top three quarterback in the NFL. He is not. And Dak Prescott is about to show everybody what he can do when he takes better care of the football. Your Dallas Cowboys may be damn near representing this NFC in the Super Bowl. As we work our way to my most riveting division in the betting world, and it's not what you think.

but the NFC North has serious, serious value. You're getting over two to one for the Vikings. But I'm telling you right now, the Chicago Bears are winning the NFC North. And I know what you're saying. No chance. Worst defense in franchise history. Fields ain't going to stick.

Let's talk this out. Spark your cigar. First reason why the Chicago Bears are winning this debate. vision at plus $430, $400 when you $4.35, $5.30 back. Buy yourself a steak with two sides. I'll take a lobster bisque. Unlucky versus lucky. Let's just start with the Minnesota Vikings. The Minnesota Vikings are objects in mirror not as they appear. A 13 win club with a negative point differential, 11 and 0 in one score games. Remind yourself. Kirk Cousins is a nice guy. I want Kirk Cousins driving me to the Friday night party. I want Kirk Cousins cooking on the grill on a Sunday for the family with a voluntary tucked in shirt.

I do not want Kurt Cousins leading my team to a Super Bowl. That day's never come. Okay. He's a top 10 at the end of that list quarterback, but he has no help on the defensive side. And eight wins or fewer in three of his five with the purple people eaters. they have a little bit of turnover, all right? Dalvin Cook, you go do the history, guys are top four running back in the history of the Minnesota Vikings. Gone, feeling, gone. A lot on JJ and a lot on this offense and Madison to step up in those Cook feeling rolls to act like those weren't quality pieces that left.

The other element is that the Chicago Bears team on the exact Kostanza opposite of what the Vikings were lost, eight games by one score. Eight games by one score. The 12-7 Thursday night football loss to the commander sticks out. A couple of weird Ls that shouldn't have been stick out. Realize this. No team revamp their roster in this division.

Better than the Chicago Bears. Okay. Offensive side first. DJ Moore weapon. Darnel right. Top 10 tackle in the draft. Realize last year starting this division. this season in this division, Darnel Mooney.

Is he is, is he an 80 in Madden? I really haven't checked. He's probably in 82 tops. He was your wide receiver one. Now you have DJ Moore, certified one Chase Claypool, Cole Komet, and a top three rushing offense returning with an improved offensive line. I just mentioned statistically the worst defense in the history of Chicago Bears D, which they hang their hat on D and not on Jim McMahon offense.

This team, who is lasting points allowed per game, They don't add one piece. They don't have had two pieces. They add several. Tremaine Edwards, the Marcus Walker in Gokwe. Risker, a safety, led the team in sacks. A safety led the team in sacks. Give Brisker and Eddie Jackson some help.

They did that. And they don't just add pieces. They add an eagle. They add a bill. They had a Vrable Titan defensive player. If you're sitting here and not saying that this bears D is going to get significantly better from last year, you're doing yourself at this service, okay?

This might be a hot take, but this might be the best defense in the division. And that's not even just a tip of the fro to the bears. The Vikings and the Lions are bottom five in almost every defense's statistical category. And the Packers who did nothing because they don't do anything in the free agency world to state status quo in the most important offseason since Brev,

far of the Rogers. The Chicago Bears are winning this division. Lock it up. Lock it in Vince Fawn. Let's go to the NFC West. This is a very easy division to cap. First of all, it's a two horse race. You got a Rams and a Cardinals team at over,

under on your local betting shop at six and a half and four and a half wins. Throw them out the window, okay? Swipe left on them on Bumble. They ain't going anywhere. The Cardinals already packed it in for Caleb Williams. The Rams are a dumpster fire infrastructure-wise. This is a two-horse race, and I don't think it's close. there's only one division.

I'm almost certain that has a two-game separation in the over-under-win total department. And it's the San Francisco Niners and their discrepancy and the drop-off to the Gino Smith I wrote, they didn't write me back Seattle Seahawks. Look, it's a top three football roster in the NFL. There's not a lot of teams that can replace and run a rotisserie at quarterback and still win games. The San Francisco 49ers are one of those. They went 10 and 0. 10 in 0 last year as a home favorite.

They are the best defense, in my humble opinion, bottom the top in the league. You win 13 games, your number one in points against, your number one in defensive yards allowed. You earn that crown coming into this year. You add and swoop Javon Hartgrave. Cannot understate that alone. And this offense stars everywhere. This could end up being the Beatles minus the quarterback. Iyuk, Debo, CMC, Kittle.

Are they the Rolling Stones of the NFL? They might be. So you have the number one defense in the league you make a case with the number one turnover differential from last year, giving away points, giving away balls versus taking them away. No team better. Cowboys were second. Niners were first.

Purdy, to me, is just going to have to go in and game manage. And again, this division is going to eat up themselves. Only the Seahawks at over under eight and a half wins. are in your way. Forget about it. Lock up at minus 165. The San Francisco 49ers do not overcomplicate this. This team is coming for Noggins all season. Shanahan has everything to prove. This guy hasn't slept eight hours since Tom Brady did a 283 to his offensive coordinator Atlanta Falcons. We're everywhere. And we round out easily the least compelling division unless you like reality TV, the NFC South.

Buckle up, buckle in, baby you can drive my CAA-R. We are going from an unstable household to a stable one. This is Derek Carr in his second marriage and it's healthier. Okay. Derek Carr got married at 21, had no idea who he was, had no idea he even wanted kids, had no idea what he even wanted to do with his life, i.e. colonism speaking, okay?

Now he's on the Saints. And I know you're going to sit here and say, Dennis Allen isn't Sean Peyton, that's fine. I know you're going to sit here and say, the Saints D was almost the same. The Saints roster was almost the same as last year. What's the difference? Statistically from Derek Carr to Andy Dalton.

Stop it. Stop it. Okay. Guys got a 91 career QBR. He's 63 and 79 as a starter. He was playing on a baseball Oakland ace infield half his career. He had to deal with a company move. A move. The Raiders haven't given him a defense, except for all but one year.

Oh, but one year. Derek Carr is at a defense. Okay. The Mario Davis, Marshawn Lattimore, Ham Jordan, real players on this defense. Do I need to even say this out loud? Baker Mayfield has gone all the way down the shoots in ladder board game. Okay? He's on his last commercial for progressive insurance. They will not be renewing his contract. He is not going to work in He is going to win seven games at the absolute most. I like under six and a half. I don't even understand the Atlanta Falcons at over under eight and a half wins. The Atlanta Falcons were the second worst team in the league on third down.

They got last in the NFL Sachs department and they were bottom 10 in turnovers. And Desmond Ritter's going to turn that around year one. I'm sorry, Bijon Robinson. Kyle Pitts has done nothing since he's gone into the league, but underachieve and underperformed. And the Falcons aren't beating anybody out for that top spot in the South. And the Panthers are a complete start over. Last in time of possession, got rid of any serviceable assets, rookie quarterback, number one overall. We know about the history of first overall draft picks and not winning more than seven games unless your name's Andy Luck.

History against you. Turn over in the division. Take the adult in the room and the most stable team in this division. And you're getting plus 130. We are out this episode right now. Chiefs win the AFC West. Riftons win the AFC North. Jags win the AFC South.

Bills do win the AFC East, though. It's incredibly close. We go the NFC, the Cowboys Leap Frog, the Eagles, they win. The Niners win the West. Easily. Easily. Derek Carr and this team in New York. Orleans wins the South.

And I got the Chicago Bears. Last but certainly not least, at a little over 4 to 1. This is your divisional winners. Hold me to it. Rock with me or fade me. I am on the money. Six of these are Ws. I'm going six and two, baby.

You heard it here first. We're out of here. Don't forget to hug your mothers. Paul, let's debrief on this. Eight divisional winners. We can start out with me. snub in your division. I just cannot buy the Minnesota Vikings.

What do you think about the picks? Yeah, I think for the most part, you did a pretty nice job here, Monaco. Man, I have four. There's four. So four year eight, I wanted to ask you a question. All right,

and we can start with the Bears of the Vikings here. Because, yes, as you know, I am a Vikings fan who loves them a plus 260. But I have to give you credit, bears a plus 430. Nice value there. But as much as the Bears improved, like you said, you have to remember, this team was 3 and 14. There was a lot to improve upon.

So even though that they brought in guys like Yonik and Gakwe, they're getting another stop on his train through across the NFL, and they get the linebacker additions. Offensively, at least, I don't think this team is on the same level as the Vikings. And defensively, if they're better, it's just a little bit. So you really, you have to be all in on fields, which it sounds like you. are to really pick them over the lions or the Vikings because otherwise I don't think the talent's higher. Listen, I think we're undermining five changes on the defensive side and really not reminding ourselves in a wide receiver league, Paul, that this dude had a pack of Skittles to throw to last year. I mean, if Chase Claypools, you're one, do I dare say darnel Mooney?

You're in trouble. You're in hot water. So the fact that they were a top three rushing offense last year, I think Montgomery is a little bit of a loss, but I don't know how you don't feel good about the turnover of personnel. And again, I didn't say it, but since 2002 when the NFL realigned their divisions, there's been an average worst to first of 1.33 teams over 21 seasons. That means a team a year goes from worst to first. and I go down that list of eight options, and I cannot make a better case than for the Chicago Bears. If we're just going off of blind resume,

off that stat alone, and the Jaguars did it last year, three and 14 to nine and eight. This Bears team's not winning 11 games or probably not winning 10 games. I think 9 and 8 wins this division. This division has no defense. And there's a case where Jordan Luff at 7 to 1 could be worth a sprinkle. That could be the best defense.

I can't, I know, but I just, I can't sit here and feel like golf and cousins who aren't Alan and Herbert, no offense to them. They're tier two guys. That's so much to ask. I agree with you that the Vikings have the best offensive in this division. Their defense is so, it's a liability. So are you gambling? Are you gambling on fields here?

or are you, or do you think he is just the more consistent? Because I look at Kirk and Goff and I trust them more than I trust Justin Fields. But I understand rolling the dice and saying he has superstar potential. So are you rolling the dice on him and believing he's going to be a star? Or are you just confident? I mean, it's really both because I do think he has the highest ceiling. Kurt Cousins, again, he doesn't get enough credit for being stable because they haven't given him really a great defense in Minnesota.

But the Lions have had four straight years of bottom five in yards against. I mean, Jared Goff at a career year. And again, I said this on the NFC North episode, he had the most motivation he'll ever have in the league as a number one draft pick, his former team who moved off and won the Super Bowl. So he came in, he locked in and he delivered. But that running back room is a complete turnover. I don't think that their defense got much better in Detroit.

and the dumb luck numbers here of negative three in the point differential department for a 13 win team. I mean, that's some Harry Potter dark magic, Paul, down the Griffin door halls. That is not happening again. You said it not me. Two years back, it was the other way. All those close games went the other way. So in a game of inches, I'm betting on that not working out at the roulette table. I mean, the Vikings are playing roulette as far as I'm concerned.

So I just don't think any of these teams went for it on the defensive side more than Chicago. And Justin Fields hasn't had three weapons ever. I think Cole Komet could be a top 10 fantasy tight end. And Claypool and DJ Moore are a real one too. He has not had that yet. So that's what I'm banking. Okay. So you're buying the Bears.

I want to ask the AFC East. So you have the bills at plus 120. That's what I'm seeing right now is the number at plus 120. kind of crazy to get them out a plus number given their recent history. If you look past them, though, the Jets at plus 250, the Dolphins plus 290, Patriots plus 800, which of those three teams presents the most value to you? It sounds like from everything you've said this summer, you're all in on the Jets, but maybe plus 800 is really high for Belichick.

Yeah, you know, that division is riveting. You can make a case as a salesman for the. dolphins and you can make a case for the Jets. The Jets are just going to have trials and tribs in September that the bills aren't. If the Jets win week one on Natty TV and beat the bills, chaos, New York is going to have a party like the Nixis beat the Cavs in the playoffs. I mean, it's going to be pandemonium. Pick a burrow any burrow.

But the Jets, I mean, we're watching it. We're getting a nice little Costco sample of a glimpse in Hard Knocks. They, Randall Cobb, huddling. up the wide receivers to talk about trust. Aaron Rogers is just, it's good, you know, this is a guy, again, not to get in the psychology things, but he has trust issues. So it's going to take a little bit of time for this guy to trust his team. Corey Davis leaving, I think it was low key, kind of big.

So what I do like is this Miami Dolphins team and their defense is really something to keep your eye on. I do think value wise, you can make a case at the Miami Dolphins team. dolphins are a better bet than the Jets value-wise. But I don't feel good that the dolphins went one and three without two. That's two-quarterback contingent. I don't know if I believe in White Lotus, a backup quarterback. And to me, it's boomer busts with Aaron Rogers right now.

You're winning right now. Your MBA, if you will, going veteran, going older, and you have to win now. So I would bet the Jets over Miami if I wasn't going Buffalo. but we just forget what Buffalo has done. I mean, honestly, two of the three seasons, Paul, they've lost two games total in the stadium. And I forgot to say this, but they lost three games by eight points combined last year.

I mean, Oh, it's mad. Let's not outthink the room here. And they just don't have stars on defense. There's not a star name, except for maybe you could go, Micahide,

Poirer, but it's not like they have, yeah, and Von Miller's a star, but he's not like, on the back nine. Like, you just, you don't have a Michael Parsons.

You don't have a Darius slat. You don't have stars on the defensive side, so you forget how disgusting this defense is. I, I just think the bills, the bills are, are kind of flying under the radar this year. And just,

just to piggyback off of that comment there, in 1999, it was the last year, the bills had made the playoffs before Shaw McDermott came to town. Since getting McDermott, five of the six years he's been there, they've made the playoffs.

three straight seasons with 11 or more wins after the Josh Allen leaps. So you're right. You can't undersell how good this Buffalo team has been. And to get them out a plus number, I thought it was a really nice bet on your end. Two more teams here. The Ravens now, you have them winning the AFC North.

Does Joe Burroughs calf strain have anything to do with you picking Baltimore? You mentioned it briefly, but was that a tipping point? Or are you just fully all in on the Ravens regardless of Burroughs health? Great, great question. Definitely in the rationale for sure. But the Bengals, to me, Burroughs better than Lamar, without question. I'd rather build my team around Burrow. But it's a 53 man roster. And I can't sit here and say outside of the wide receiver position specifically, I really want to back anybody more position by position than the Ravens over the. the Bengals. The Ravens have the better offensive line. I mean, we forget a year, we're a year removed from Burrow having the Justin Fields, Russell Wilson treatment from last two years back. He cannot have any time in, in his, in his pocket to make decisive decision making.

I still don't believe that, that offensive line is going to, is going to really give him the protection he needs, not to mention he is pretty banged up for as young as he is. So to me, you have a better defense. You have a better offensive line. you have a top three running game. You have a finally offensive play caller in Monkin that's going to build up, coach up, and be receptive to suggestions from your quarterback with the combination of your quarterback locked in.

I mean, go look at that DAC year the year after DAC was locked in, a career year. So that football is a fascinating game where you get that Notre Dame play like a champion mindset. I just think this Ravens team has a lot to prove, and they're just going to be about their business. And that calf strain is very concerning because, again, cath goes before the Achilles.

I want to stay positive here. But let's remind ourselves, this team went two and three in the regular season without Lamar Jackson and only lost by one score and one score to the Bengals, burrowed and throw for more in 215 yards in either of those games. You take Joe Burrow off of the Spengles team, they win five games. So the cash train is a big deal to you. It's got to be on the pie chart, 15, 20%, but I also think that he doesn't dominate this division.

He has never dominated this division. So they're going to get also everybody's best. I mean, everyone brings their best anyways in that division, but they sneakily have a real mount in the climb. It is enticing, though, looking at the bank. and the Bills, plus 150 for the Bengals, plus 120 for the Bills. How often do you get a plus number for two of the three best quarterbacks in the league? Sure. So I, yeah, but I see what you're saying with the Ravens. Last team here, the Cowboys and the Eagles, you talked about them in the NFC East. Was that more of the Cowboys being plus 175, Eagles minus 115, you leaning towards

a plus number for teams that are very close. Because I look up and down these rosters and it's just most units, I lean Philly, especially at quarterback, you know, that's the big one everyone looks at. I trust Jalen Hertz to protect the ball more than DAC. I know you're positive on him. So when you look at those two, was it the numbers that you're getting that made you lean Dallas?

Or are you just really buying into a DAC Prescott bounce back year? It is a combination of both. the value is absolutely part of it. I didn't speak on it enough that that plus money number versus, you know, a little more than normal juice on your average minus one 10 bet in the book. But, you know, we got to look at that Super Bowl as a little bit of a tell as to how night and day this Eagles D is. If you just get Tom Brady with your offensive game plan and you get the ball out in less than three, seconds every single time and you do not let them penetrate you. They are a different team.

And Jalen Hertz, again, it's fascinating that people are crowning him. You know, this is a top roster in the league, but I want to see it again with Jalen Hertz. Can Jalen Hertz do it again? And Dak and the Cowboys, they are often talked about the most in the off season. I mean, outside of that Dak quote about the quarterbacks and then him throwing a training camp interception the next day. You have not heard, of course, barring that Trey Lance move, which I actually like, even on a psychology level, he never sees the field. I like them taking a piece from a certified rival. I mean, this is a three horse conference race in the Eagles, Cowboys, and Niners.

But, you know, this Cowboys team has taken it to the Eagles. And the Cowboys have done better in the division than the Eagles since that. and Jalen Hertz have gone head to head. You know, the Cowboys, I just, that turnover differential number, Paul, if he can chill out on interceptions, they are, they are a more opportunistic defense from a turnover standpoint than Philly. Look at the numbers. So to have 17 fumble recoveries last year and the next team had 13, I mean, take a little,

and I did take, I did say this take on the NFC East app, go back to more earlier DAC. don't feel like you got to go out, win the game, let your defense give you the ball back, win time of possession, win field possession, and positioning, and let Paulard and do Spawn do their thing, and let the team and the offense run its course.

If he doesn't play above the rim, I think we're poised for a scary, scary run here. But yes, to answer your question, because you can go tip for tat and split hairs with these rosters, I am higher on Prescott protecting the ball, and that's pretty good value for a team that is as stacked as the Dallas Cowboys are. Something that not a lot of people have brought up this offseason two is that last year, we didn't get to see the Hertz versus Prescott matchup because each of them were injured in one of the games. So we don't even have really a sample of what it looks like with the new Jalen Hertz versus DAC right now. So there's not much to work off from last year.

But the one testament to back up what you're saying is, look how close both those games were with the backup quarterbacks. It just shows how loaded these rosters are. Like the defense can win any game for either team. So if you get great quarterback play, it's just more power too. You're probably going to win the game. And you know, Paul, I mean, Prescott put a 40 piece on the Eagles in week. I mean, a 40 piece.

That Cooper Rush game earlier in that. that season, I remember it. That was, that game went under. That was a 2617 game. Oh, that was like a street fight. A 40-34 shootout and we saw it in the Super Bowl. If Philly's defense doesn't come full tilt and you have to ask Jayland hurts to get in a shootout, I actually trust Dak Prescott in a shootout a la week 15, week 16, excuse me, more than I do Jaleners. Doesn't it feel like this division will come down to those two games though? Because both these teams are so sound and so much better as a whole than everyone else in the league, other than a couple teams here or there, that they should be great against everyone else.

And then whatever happens against each other, that'll probably end up determining if someone sweeps, you have to imagine that they are by far the favorite to win. Yeah. And, you know, it could come down to one difference in a game on the schedule. And guess who gets to play the Chiefs and guess who doesn't have to? The Eagles have to play them. The Cowboys don't. I mean, you start getting in the weeds on scheduling and timing of when you play teams.

And I like Dallas at the beginning of their season. I mean, I don't know how they don't come out the gate going three and one, four, and two with what I'm looking at. You know, they get to play the Cardinals early. They got the Rams early. The Giants out the gate, they'll win. So, you know, they can take advantage of the Jets early in the season when they're not in great form out the gate. Not saying they won't be, but could be. I just like the timing of the Cowboy schedule a little bit more.

And is that not something, though, real quick, that nobody's won the division back to back since 0.4. That's pretty. I know, like, not coming in as trends guy is always a great look at betting, a little bit squarish sometimes. But that is, I mean, again, this division has so much drama and so much turnover. that's got to be not nothing, right? It is, it is funny when you look at this division. They felt like for a long time that one team kind of has their year. And then someone else steps up the next year and becomes one of the best teams in the NFL.

Overall, it's really a competitive division every single season. It's just sometimes like last year, the Eagles have a 13, 14 win season. We'll see who that is between Dallas and Philly, unless if Daniel Jones takes a Josh Allen leap. But yeah, no, I mean, you have to acknowledge that this division is very competitive and really, you know, no one ever does win back to back. I think it's fine to look at that. And we did not on our way out here coordinate our outfits for school today, but Paul and I are wearing the same shirt. We are. We're both reping the brand, although we have the old logo on our shirts right now.

We got to get that new merch. We got that new merch, baby volume sports. Hashtag merch. Hey, Paul, appreciate you. Great value. always coming at the end, talking out some of these divisions. Always, always worth debating each one of these. Again, game of inches.

So for Paul, it's the Moneyline Monaco show. We will see you tomorrow on Ant. The volume.