The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Playoff Bets: Cowboys-49ers, Giants-Eagles, Bengals-Bills, Jags-Chiefs

Episode Date: January 21, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting insight and best bets for the NFL Divisional Round featuring Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys vs. Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers, an NFC East showdown between Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles against Saquon Barkley and the New York Giants, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals taking on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs looking to reach their fifth straight AFC Championship Game as they take on Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. It's sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco, presented by Fandul. It might be cold, but the sports calendar is heating up, and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandul. The app is safe, secure, easy to use. Fandual always has exclusive offers, boosts, and more. When you win, you'll get paid incredibly fast. Fandual has tons of ways to bet. You've got the spread, the money line, over unders, team totals, player props, and so much more.

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Thanks for joining me, Volume Sports, of course, live on the Amazon Amp app. Make sure to check us out there. Big shout out to the Amazon AMP family working with us at Volume. And of course, all picks on Action Network, social media, MoneyLine, Monaco. Coming in, I'm not hot, I'm not cold, I'm pedestrian. I went three and three against the spread in Wild Car weekend. just to give you a quick recap, then we'll sleeves roll it up for all four in the divisional dance this Saturday and Sunday. I go with the Seahawks game one, we don't cover.

We take the Jags fading my favorite team that I'm in a toxic relationship with the former San Diego Chargers. Jags win. We go one in one on Saturday. Missed the morning game again, swall the points with the bills, dolphins cover. I end up going 2 and 0 in the closing games. I take the G-Men. I shouted out G-Men Money Line as well for anyone that follows me,

and I took the Ravens with the points. Now, we threw up a parlay. Shout out of my guy Anaya on the Volume Betts Instagram. Make sure to throw that a follow as well. We throw up a ton of fun content with living myself on volume bets that Matt crushes. On there, I threw up a parlay. You riding or who is ruining it?

And those five teams I named, I went Niners-O money line, money line outside of those covers. We were five for five until Monday night. A lesson out there for anyone sitting on a parlay ticket that could be life-changing. Hedge. All right. Hedge.

I could have made two months of Manhattan rent if the bucks won. They didn't. They got rolled. And here we are. Humbled talking cowboys last because I still got to get it out of my system. and that's who you're listening to. That's who I went last week. And I'm not really an underdog guy.

And I went five underdogs. So let's take a look. Starting out with Saturday. We're going to go in order. Chiefs and Sir Patrick hosting Dougie P. Sunshine, don't call him Spacoli, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacks. Eight and a half is the line on Fandoul.

I've gone back and forth. I really have. It's such a large number. It makes you think. And the Chiefs, and we know this. We know this last year. We know this this year. They don't cover when they're a home favorite.

And they don't even cover particularly well. How bad are they against the spread? They're fourth worst in the league, people. 6, 10, and 1. Now, it's not their fault. Vegas loves them. They're having to lay 15 and a half against the Rams to beat them by 16 to cover.

Let's call that a spade a spade. But at home, two, four, and one against the spread as well. And look, these two teams danced earlier in the season. Chiefs did cover 2717. Very much could be the exact result

of this game. 2717 sounds about right. But here, we have to think about Jacksonville this way. We have to. Five game win streak to get in the tournament. They've covered five of their last six. They're done.

They're toast. And I've heard calling about it. I've heard a lot of prominent sports radio voices speak on the mindset that Trevor Lawrence possessed at half time. Because Peyton finally squashed this on the Manning cast. Great show. halftime adjustments. You got time for orange slices to take a leak, get a quick little rah-rah, and roll out there. There are no halftime adjustments. I mean, there are, but you get 15 minutes.

So for them to have that tiny amount of time done at home, first playoff game since who knows when in Jacksonville at home from a divisional home AFC style champion standpoint, they're done, and they come out and I hammer them. I tweeted it plus 22 and a half plus 1,200, and they smoked the chargers. And that, to me, looking at this Chiefs game, factors in immensely. Most teams, you would say,

they ran their tank out last week. They're done. They're exhausted. Not this team. Not the only team in the league to come back from 25 down and give up 25 points in the league. This is the Jaguars. They're Jekyll, they're high.

And this Patrick Mahomes' resume for home divisional games is terrifying. I'm not sitting here telling you the Jags are the right side. I'm telling you it's a coin flip in this game. And Patrick Mahomes is 4 and 0 at home in the divisional dance. He's got eight, excuse me, nine tugs, no mistakes, just under a 70% completion percentage, he's throwing 308 a game. In his four home divisional games, Furthermore, he's eight and two in Chief's home playoff games with an average margin of victory of 13 points.

They should cover this game. They really should. So number one points per game offense, the number one yards in offense is gained. But the Jacks, who since they got double digit beat by the Chiefs, are six and one overall, including three row double digit wins. And you're beating the Titans. the Jets, two serviceable defenses, one very good defense. You're coming back against who a lot of people had chargers to make a run,

to run the table this year. I don't know why. Staley's there. They won't do that when Staley's there. But I look at this offense for the Jacks. And they're going against a chief steed that is not the Eagles. That is not the Cowboys. and this Chiefs D

was 16th in the league all season, points per game, very middle of the pack. How about prior to their latest four-game stretch, 27 plus points in half of their 10 games? That is a defense that is susceptible to giving up points. Now, I'm hoping the Jags don't know what they don't know. you look at the Trevor Lawrence press conference. Is Arrowhead really going to be louder than the Jaguar Stadium last week?

That's what he says. That's what he says. He is naive at this point in his sophomore career. I'm hoping that bodes Jacksonville's favorite. Now again, from an against-a-spread standpoint, the game we play, Chiefs are winning. Best play on the board. Tease the Chiefs down.

Tease the Eagles down. I say this in a New York City zip code. Sar. The Eagles are winning. The Chiefs are winning. Tees those puppies down. But this pick, I got to lean the eight and a half. Terrifying, least favorite pick of the four, least favorite. But the fourth worst cover in the league against a team that's six and one in their last seven. Five and one against the spread in their last six. I got to take the eight and a half. Historically, one seed do not cover in this round, by the way, more than they do cover. Let's get into the second matchup.

NFCE dance three times a charm. Danny Dip, Dodge, ducking, dive in dimes, and the G men heading down the jersey turnpike is what I'm told. As a San Diego kid in New York, two Lincoln Financial to dance against the Eagles, the one seat. The rested Siriani, Jalen Hertz, lead. Fly Eagles fly. Now, Hertz has been in one playoff game before. It was last year against the Bucks. The Bucks remind yourselves, this is how far Phillies come in 365 days.

They were the 31-0 routing last year against the Bucs. Hertz comes back, gets a cupcake garbage time touchdown. He had two interceptions. He was 23 for 43. That game was 31-15, but it was 31-0. So it was garbage time points. Now the Eagles own the Giants. They've beat them nine straight.

But do you realize the giants this year are the lions from last year, at least from a cover standpoint, against the spread? Dear, 14 and full, including last week, against the spread on this season. It's unbelievable. There's 7 and 1 as a road dog, 8 in 1, including last week against Kirkdon Prime Time. 8 and 1 against the spread as a road dog. 8 and 1 against the spread as. a road underdog. Furthermore, Danny Dimes, 256 quarterbacks going back 20 years as a road

underdog. Daniel Jones is top five as a road underdog cover at 17 and 5. I would say this. Typically, you would lean Philly here to roll them. What they do in the first half points per game wise, the rest. Some are calling it a disrespectful line. But Philly, who, again, is not even close to the cover that this Giants team is, the Eagles, if they don't blow you out in the first quarter, are not going to blow you out in the game. Now, as a home favorite against the spread, Philly is better than they are as a road cover.

They're six and three. So that's worth noting. They do cover at home. And they've had to cover large numbers as well. But I'm taking a number. I'm taking a coaching scheme that I think is going to out coach Siriani and his staff. I'm not saying the Giants are going to win the game.

They're not. But I think they're going to out coach them. That's their only chance. You go position by position personnel wise. There is no way you don't lean Philly nine D9 out of 100. But we've seen it in the playoffs. We've already seen dogs. show up, we've seen very good teams like Buffalo, you would think roll a divisional foe,

and they don't. You saw Sincy last week. We thought they were going to roll Huntley. I took Ravens and the points. It was a big number, eight and a half. So the game comes down to scheme. It comes down to can the Giants not let the Eagles get out to a huge league? It's what they do. They average around 20 points a game in the first half alone. You have to take the points here and bank on Daible and this scheme, getting you to a point where you feel comfortable they can cover a touchdown. Danny Dimes did what nobody has ever done in the history of their first playoff game. Over 300 yards, multiple tugs, 75 plus on the ground.

But it's Daniel Jones. So it's underwhelming. It's barely a headline. No one talks about him. He's not polarizing. He's not flashing. He's Eli Manning 2.0 with maybe not a sense of humor. I've never seen Daniel Jones mumble a sentence in my entire life.

I've never seen him talk. I don't even know if he does talk. I need to sign language in the huddle. So I'm banking on team that rested their starters. A couple times in the last month of the season. And a team has nothing to lose. All the pressure is on Philly. That has to matter a little in this.

All the pressure is on Philly. seven and one now eight in one as a road underdog. If we're wrong, we back the best cover in the league. As we get on to the third dance, another top five cover in the league. I'm back in three top five covers, baby. I have to take the Cincinnati Bengals at plus five and a half. I got to take Calhurt's podcast partner, Joey Burr,

to bring this home for us. The Bengals do better, at least under Burrow, going back to the beginning of last season, as an underdog. They've covered eight straight as a dog. Eight straight. Do you know how hard that is to do in the national football league? They've covered 20 of their last 24 outings. They lose a Super Bowl.

They still cover four for you. Look, the bills are in a weird, interesting, fickle spot. I got a lot going on right now. And I am not comfortable with Josh Allen taking care of the football. or lack thereof. I got a stat here, aside from the fact that the Bengals have covered 12 games this season and eight straight as dogs.

They're undefeated when they allow less than three sacks this season. Undefeated. Best in the NFL. Now, they're going to give up a sack. They're down a few offense alignment. But more prevalent and important is this trend. The Bengals are eight and three when they force one turnover or more. Eight and three, six bests.

in the league. The bills have turned the ball over people. 27 times. 27 times. Thirdmost in the league. Josh Allen, in the last three games alone, terrifying numbers, five interceptions, five fumbles, only one lost,

excuse me, four fumbles, that's terrifying. You are not. not taking care of the football, you're reckless. And that is Josh Allen, sort of Patrick Mahomes-esque, where he's going to do the unconventional. He's going to extend plays. He's going to improvise and he's going to create magic. But he's also sometimes going to create havoc.

Remember last year, Patrick Mahomes was double digits in turnovers by like midway through the two-thirds of the way through the season. He got that under wraps this year. But Josh Allen's doing this year what Mahomes did last year. He's second behind Prescott and interceptions. no one's to have that conversation. Why? You're 8 and 8 against the spread.

Everyone is emotionally on the bills. That's fine. I like the bills to win the game. I cannot back in lay 5 and a half when you go against Skyler Thompson and you don't even outscore in the second half. You don't bury them in the second quarter when you're up three scores. You lot a Miami team that was done. Miami was free-fall.

seven-game losing streak. Which would you rather have? Just ask yourself this question. Ask yourself out loud. Would you rather have a Bengals team that's getting five and a half that had to go against a team in division, by the way, two weeks in a row?

Or would you rather back a team that just let a third string quarterback almost beat them? There was an element of luck at the end of that Bill's game. 12 and 5 aTS versus A&A ATS. The bills, I'm sorry. They are right now the sharp side.

I got a hard time figuring out why. The money is on the bills. The tickets are on the Bengals. I got a hard time justifying that. I have to take the points. I have to take the points. Last but not least a game that I have tussled over feels like 92. Tommy Pickles Rugrats for me.

Cowboys Niners, Cream of the Crop in the 90s Dak versus Purdy, McCarthy versus Shanahan, you gotta love it. I, the Bucks, didn't even see Dallas here. Thought the Cowboys were going to Cowboy. This is their ninth meeting ever in the postseason.

Dallas is up 5'3. And this is a rematch of last year's wildcard. But instead of the Niners being the dog on the row with the points, coming in with the Debo Boombox, they're at home, swallowing points against 8. a loose pressure was on the Cowboys last week, not on them this week. I mean, there's always pressure on the Cowboys, but not in this spot where you got a team that's 111 straight that doesn't look like they can be slowed down at all.

They just posted 505 yards of offense. Third most ever, third most ever in the history of Niners playoff games. Purdy was sensational. He had seven guys for receptions, four guys had two. Debo was 6 for 1, 33 in a tug. CMAC in his 11 game outing for this team. 159 carries for 746. That's a 4.7 average, six tugs.

Eight plays of 20 yards or more. You saw him do that as well as Debo last week. Look, this Niners team is also a top five cover. But they're the number one defense in the NFL, people. It's the number one defense in points per game. They're giving up 16 points a game in a modern running gun NFL free-flying offensive-led lead league. You're giving up the number one yards allow.

You're the best run team in the league. You got a Dallas team that has not broken 100 yards on the ground in two months of football. I said this last week as part of my bucks rationale. It had to be on DAC to beat the bucks. And they did. They beat them. But Doc had all day. Doc had all day.

This Niners team, they lead the league. Lead the league with 20 interceptions. Doc had seven picks in his last seven. He had nine picks in six games midseason. He's leading the league in interceptions. He's not taking care of the football. So you mean to tell me they can't run or they won't run great on this

Damico Ryan's club defensively? You're going to make Dak on a five touchdown outing, do it again. Here's another thing to know. Two-day rest advantage. Two days. Coward talked about it brilliantly. You're done Saturday afternoon in Cali. You got to wait till Monday East Coast to wrap for the Cowboys.

And they got to travel again. Mentioned this had to. Yesterday on the best game, which I'll ever say it again. Fourth straight road game for the Cowboys. That's happened twice before in this spot. No team won. No team covered historically. Two-day rest advantage, fourth road game for the Cowboys.

This is a tough spot. Now, the three and a half scares me because the money is on the Cowboys. The tickets are on the Niners. That's Sharp Square. I've seen this three times on the board. And I am not on all sharp sides. So I am going down with my instincts, my gambling gut. I'm going down with what I believe in my heart.

I think this Cowboys team blows it. Now, just as on the money, you blow it the week before you come back dialed in, this Cowboys team cooks. What do they do the following week? They're 03 and 1 against the spread in their last four after a straight up win. So a very short line, the Cowboys are going to have to control the football, not turn the ball over, run the football, and stop the run. One of the best running schemes.

You not only now have CMAQ back. there and Elijah Mitchell healthy finally. You have Debo Samuel, which I hammered it over 14 and a half rushing yards. If Fandu lays another low one on Debo rushing less than 20, break out the air in Judge Gaville and hammer it. Debo is going to get some looks on the ground. I just think this team is poised for a deep playoff run. And this is not your neighborhood rookie quarterback.

This isn't Mark Sanchez or Joe Flacco in their Jets Ravens rookie seasons. Purdy is a part of a offensive scheme and design that is so rare and so special. You cannot look at him like a normal rookie. I did last week taking the Seahawks with the points. I was a sucker free Friday on a Sunday, Saturday. It was not fun. Sucker free, old school MTV. Purdy went on 131 quarterback rating last week for 332 and 3rd

and 3rd and 3rd and 3rd and 3 thugs and a fourth on the ground. I mean, what? He's just going to drop off against Dallas's D? No, they're smart with their play calling. They protect this kid because he's still a rookie. And I trust the San Fran offensive line. And, you know, you want to sit there and back and jock Dallas's D. You gave a sport to the Jaguars a couple of coffee ago.

Stop crowning Dallas's D. Very susceptible to being a leaky defense at times. So I got to take the Niners here, swall in the three and a half. Love, though. Love that two-team teaser. Chiefs down, Eagles down, Chiefs, Eagles move on. I like in a 14 money line parlay just on my way out, I will go. Bills, Money Line, Niners Money Line, Eagles Money Line, Chiefs Money Line.

Those are my FAB 4 to move on. You got my against-a-spread picks. I'm on the Jags, taking the Danny Dimes points. I'm taking the Bengals with the points. I'm swallowing a favorite in Sanfran. If three favorites cover and one underdog does and it's the Cowboys and I somehow go winless, we're going to completely start life all over.

But I don't think we go winless. I feel three and one. Thank you for tuning in. A, sports gambling with money line, Monaco. Make sure to hug your mothers. Enjoy the best weekend outside of Wild Car weekend in this NFL season. If you've been watching the NFL playoffs from the sidelines,

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