The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Week 1 Bets: Cowboys-Giants, Steelers-49ers, Burrow & Bengals flop vs. Browns

Episode Date: September 9, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his best bets for Week 1 of the NFL season including his picks for 49ers-Steelers, Bengals-Browns, Dolphins-Chargers, and Titans-Saints. Later, Monaco lists his favorite props featuring the Vikings' Justin Jefferson and Bears' Justin Fields before making his 'Hail Mary Parlay' with a heavy dose of Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. All right, welcome into another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco, Alex Monaco, fired up to be with you. San Diego on the chest. No sports team for me. Spanos goes up the Disneyland 5 freeway, which means I'm flying emotionally free at the sports book. I always like to say it's me, Danny Ocean, Brad Pitt, Eaton, Ocean's 11 food. against Terry Benedict and the books.

You, me, my producer, Paul, my boss, Sean, our guy, Anaya on the IG, et cetera, ones and twos. It's the Fab Four. You can rock with us. You can go against us. Either way, we're doing this fun this year, all right? I have batted over 57% both seasons on the volume network against the spread. I intend to do it again.

If you've been listening to me, you know where I'm at on the division wins. let's get in to all things week one. And we're doing it. Interestingly, this year, we're going to go with a little depth chart. All right. First string, second string, third string, my favorite three bets. We're going to then go to the prop shop, do a little grocery shopping. All right.

I'm a bachelor. I know how to be quick and efficient down the aisles. We're going to get out of here with a disgusting, absolutely atrocious, but highly necessary dirty dog. because it happens every week in the NFL. And then I'm going to give you a Doug flute, Hail Mary Parley. Only stipulations is we go at least over 10 to 1. Make sure you stay to the end of the show for that one.

Don't forget to subscribe, rate, review, Moneyline, Monaco across all social and AMP. Check out the volume sports decorated group of podcasts as we roll up the sleeves, baby. Let's go. Third stringer, because we're going three, two, one. All right. I live in New York now, Time Square. Got to do the countdown.

We're starting out with my third favorite bet. And this is not an easy slate, might I say. These lines are stubborn, not a ton of edges. Week one is different than every other week. You can look at trends. You can pick from last year. You can go off training camp preseason form. However you want to dice it, however you want to slice it, we got our picks.

And I'm going to sell you on a car you may not need. Start N out with a C-A-D-R. Then they'll buy you. My third best bet for this weekend. I'm going with the New Orleans Saints. I'm swall in the three. And let's get into a couple reasons why. I'm sure you're out the gate saying money lines out of his mind.

There's no way I'm fading. Mike Vrable as an underdog. We know next to Mike Tom when he is right there as one of the most profitable coaches as an underdog. I'm here to tell you with under 500 on the road. in his career, Ryan Pantanahill, this week one Titans team off seven games in a row they lost last year is not the remember the Titans we think they used to be. This team coming in, I'm looking at it. And it's hard to even fathom. But Mikey Vrable in week once is one and four against the spread, five Costco samples as a Titans coach. And his quarterback, Tanahill, who is only,

only likable one year in hard knocks, and it might not even have been because of him. Dudes never covered the spread week one for the Titans. All right. What do we know about this Titans team that, oh, by the way, only broke 20 points one time down the stretch last year. They're a one trick pony. They can't move the football in the air. Tana Hill is virtually unwatchable in the air.

And they're going against a top two passing defense from last year. only the Eagles had a better passing defense than the New Orleans Saints. Here's the other interesting thing. This Titans offensive line is ranked. Wait for it. Last by PFF. Dead last, not a worse offensive line in the league. I'm reading it.

I pay for PFF. They're highlighting a guy named Dillard who couldn't even start for the Eagles. Last year, he had to go swipe left to a different organization. So they can't pass the ball. They have a terrible offensive line going against a top two passing defense from last year. At home with, oh, by the way, a company culture with James, Dalton, and Tassam Hill, a fantasy football tight end. They won seven games last year. Three quarterbacks means no quarterbacks.

This team still won seven games. games. You have to really put on a new men in black mindset for Derek Carr. The dude played in an Oakland A's infield. If you heard me talk about it on the NFC South episode, half his career. He played on an Eric Chavez, Philly Bean infield, dealt with a change in scenery, not because of jerseys because the offspring of the Great Al Davis really doesn't know what he's doing. Derek Carr maybe had one defense, one defense to hang his hat on in Raidersland. All right? It's a top nine defense from last year as far as points against in New Orleans.

So for me, it's a combination of things. In the trenches, I don't feel good about the Titans this year, especially against Cam Jordan and these boys. They're not passing the ball on this team. All right. And Derek Carr is coming in, revitalized, refreshed, and to quote a great Colin Calhurt type divorce, he's in a much healthier situation in this marriage than he was in the first one. Utter dysfunction, but came into the league, got married early, and he actually is a guy who got married early in real life, didn't know anything other than what the Raiders dysfunction was.

It was an abusive relationship. So I'm looking at this Titans offense, and you mean to tell me DeAndre Hopkins, who over under, by the way, on draftings is four and a half receiving touchdowns, is going to come in and break the bank with changing this passing offense? No. So give me the home team. Give me the better company culture. And I will absolutely take a four-time pro ball or can't say that about Tanna Hill

in a new situation with a real defense at home in the dome. This team hasn't had a quarterback since my guy Drew Brees. Hasn't had a quarterback. Do not sleep on the New Orleans Saints. They cover the three. They're my third favorite bet. Let's get into the second stringer. All right.

I try not to be emotional and I hate to go back-to-back favorites here. But I'm going to take as a recovery. Covering San Diego Chargers fan, the LA Chargers, at home against Ace Ventura's Miami Dolphins, and I'm swallowing the three. Here's the thing. The one thing that Dolphins did incredibly well last year was pass the football. Top four passing offense, all right? The reality is this was a seventh best passing defense. when it comes to the Chargers, you look at their defense, and it was not the passing D.

It was the running D that was the huge hole in their game. Now, they were very even. Both these teams, points four points against. You go down the stat list. But these two teams danced last year in this same stadium. And might I remind you, Tua and the Finns at home are a real homefield advantage. We know about the sunshade thing. If you don't, hooh, hit up Roger, but the actor.

Looking at this sitch at SoFi, similar line, similar implications as far as looking at Herbert and this offense coming into this year versus last year. Here's the big difference is health for the chargers, all right? Last year they dealt with Ray Sean Slater gone most of the year. Austin Johnson, D tackle. J.C. Jackson was supposed to be a stock. cover corner hurt almost the entire year and Joey B. All these dudes are healthy for this game. I went back and watched the Tate to remind myself 2317 gamer, right?

You might think this is a good old Texas shootout. Believe it or not, this is from last year at least a defensive chess match that didn't ink a touchdown until 10 minutes left in the second quarter. But I watched the game all over again. The dolphins had 17 points. All right. They lose a game 2317. I was on the Dolphins trying to.

to fade my chargers in that spot. Thinking that line, that three points, was tasty. The Dolphins had two boom or bus plays. Remember the Tyreek Hill scoop and score? It was that game. All right, Jeff Wilson loses the ball.

That little giant stick him needed it, then have it. Tyreek picks it up, runs. And then another play down the sideline, Davis cover him, corner for the Chargers, slips, falls on Tyreek Hill's leg. He goes for a boom or bust tug. That's 14 of their 17 points.

Other than that, they completely held this Mike McDaniel team in check. We're at the point where I'm going to have to need to see seriously big coaching adjustments from the McDaniel side of things. Herbert did his thing. This club eight, Williams, Allen, Echler, everybody feasted. And this defense, again, not a great run. Guess who doesn't run the ball? guess who already has a banged up backfield? The Miami things up laces out there and dolphins.

They aren't matchup-wise equipped to take down this Charger team. So it's a combination to me of a Chargers team at home, better roster, better team, clearly better quarterback. And I'm not a huge Brandon Staley guy. I caught a Charger's social media vid. He was showing grown man plays with the announcer shouting. Calil Matt, Bosa, Mike Williams, Herbert. Then they would pan to the faces of these guys.

It was damn near emotion. It was Hard Knox-esque. That gave me a little Costco sample and a little belief that Staley may have the juice. I just think everyone is all over this type, this dolphins team. And we have to see this new defense. This defense last year was not great. All right. I know they have Fangio.

They should be coached up. We're talking about a fit best cover in the. league LA Chargers last year, 11, 6, and 1. Also, we're 4 and 2 ATS when they were 3 point favorites or greater. So it's a combination of almost a neutral field with this lack of Chargers home field, better quarterback, better talent, three point game, call it an even flip them game, flip coin flip game. And Tua got a little fun time zone thread here for my guy Tua.

he's never covered in the Pacific time zone. Not once. I don't know what that's worth to you. He has never covered in the Pacific time zone, baby. Yet he's 17, 7 and 1 on the east. That's against the spread. Just want to throw that out to you. Two Boomer Bus plays last year,

completely held this club and check. Give me today, tomorrow, and the next day. The LA Chargers minus three. second favorite bet on the board. Eckler Feasts. Herbert off a league leading deal shows us why Spanos finally broke out the Qualcomm Stadium piggy bank and paid somebody. And they win the game.

And they cover the spread. Let's go to my favorite bet. And I almost put this in as a dirty dog because the reality is this is not an easy pick. This does take a little way. I got to go. With the two and a half, at the moment it's plus two on DK. Let me fix the fro here.

Rup the hands for good luck. I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers. At home, plus two, plus two and a half pending when you fire against Kyle Shanahan's San Francisco. Now Nick Bosa led, he inked it, San Francisco 49ers. this Mike Tomlin team let's just start with vibes all right let's let's be that Southern California guy

little Spicoli let's just look at vibes man this Steelers team could not have been riding higher in training camp in preseason my guy Ryan Clark one of the best in the biz they have been absolutely Danny dialed all off season Mike Tomlin making it known He is trusting the sophomore kid from Jersey, but the college hometown kid,

Kenny Pickett, and he's wrapping his arms around him. Here's the thing with Pittsburgh last year. They were not healthy on defense. They were two teams with T.J. Watt without T.J. Watt. This team was eight and two straight up and eight and two against the spread with T.J. Watt last year. All right? Two completely different teams.

One in six straight up without him to four and one ATS. every time we do it every year, the Steelers are underdogs, could be in the AFC North, where everyone beats up on each other, like I said, like the Grancowski's at dinner, fighting for food, everyone went three and three in the division last year.

You look at the Steelers as underdogs. They've been profitable on the money line, eight of the last years. That's whole sample size of the season. Here they are again. Underdogs. And since Tomlin became coach in 07, got a stat for you, in week ones, a couple of these, they've been 10, 5 and 1.

Five of those were at home, Mike Tomlin, 4 and 1 in them. And they haven't had a ton of home games to open. Matter of fact, first time they're opening at home since 2014, where they did, of course, catch a win. But looking at Tomlin's numbers, he's the most profitable coaches and underdog in this league over two decades. Pick a coach, pick a team, anybody anywhere, Mike Tomlin,

64% cover as a dog, 53, 30 and 4 to be exact. And as a home dog, which he is on Sunday, 16, 4, and 3. Now you're probably saying yourself, look at the star power on the Niners' offense.

It's disgusting. C-MAT. Samuel, Iyuk, Kittle. Here's the thing with Shanahan. As a road favorite, he's historically not great. And as a week one cover in San Fran, he's covered one time in six outings. He's one in five against the spread.

Midi and I'm high on San Francisco. I got him easily winning the division. All right, two things to think about here. No look ahead. They got a Cupcake Rams game the next week. Then they got a Giants and Arizona schedule to round out their three in one September. All right. They're going to lose this game and they're going to win the rest of their next three in this month.

But might I say, purdy down the stretch as gorgeous as his stat lines were, as phenomenal as he looked in the win-loss column and everything seamless, plugging him in and playing them. Who did he play at the end of the season? season that was good on defense? Because let me triple check my stigmatism. This dude needed overtime to beat the Raiders defense. He beat the Arizona Cardinals.

Whoopty-do, Basil. He beat the Washington commanders falling apart at the steams last year. He goes into the playoffs. Yes, he looked good against the Seahawks who had no defense last year at all. He had 19 points against the Cowboys. boys. And I'm not dogging the guy, Mr. Irrelevant plug and play. Unbelievable outing. But I'm not saying that what we saw in the wins last column last year with

pretty under center was something to be insanely wrap our arms around impressive with, just based off who we win against. So this is a team. It has to go against to me. This is a top five, if not top five, certifiably top 10D in in Pittsburgh the trends the history tells us shanahan on the road with a guy by the way is it's not worth mentioning in this capping of the game he he was out the entire offseason with a baseball injury he's got to come in to a ruckus environment with t j watt in

his face all again this is not a top 10 san francisco offensive line by the way go look it up. So I like the under in this game actually more than the side. I think the first team that gets to 21 points wins this game. I can see it 2117 Pittsburgh all day. I am on in my pick six, which is separate from the show, 41 and a half. I love the under, but I cannot sit here and make a case for a guy in really a interesting spot on the road against the best defense he's played since the Philly game, which was for a series, didn't even count. With T.J. Watt, Hayward, Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter, Jr., Patrick Peterson. Dogs everywhere. Heart everywhere. Do not fade Mike Tom when at home as an underdog.

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a chicken, a bowl or whatever, a three piece this, and a water. I mean, forget about it. So here we are. We're going to the bachelor prop shop, baby. And I absolutely love all four of my bets. Three of them are plus EV, by the way. So I'm taking 100 fake Draft Kings dollars.

I'm mingling and I'm going to go fast. I'm going to go $25. First play. And this is the only coin flip one. Everyone else is plus money. Minus 115, a little bit more than the average minus 110 juice. Austin Echler, over 32 and a half receiving yards, is a slam dunk on Sunday. Okay.

First of the dolphins last year. Eight catches, eight targets, 59 yards, got in the end zone, scorched them. We've seen Echler, and I spoke about it in the fantasy football episode. Guy had over a hundred receptions. You can go out and find receptions. Inc is over on receptions. I'm talking yards specifically. Top five pass catcher in the league.

In the league. I don't see much changing this game. Attention is going to be on the big three. That's right. Who has the size in this league that this Chargers team does between Mike Williams, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen? Not to mention Gerald Everett. Size everywhere.

All right? These dudes are the monsters after they drank the juice. So much height. I got to believe in a Vic Fangio defense before I see it before I believe it. Over 32 and a half comfortably Echler, six, seven catches, gets in the end zone. He's minus 245, just to give you perspective on DK. Just to score. He's going to be utilized early and often, no one even in the backfield to take touches away from him when it comes

a change of pace. Echlor over 32 and a half. And my second one, oh, by the way, Miami's pasty, bottom six. Bottom six last year. Second pick. And we don't know how he's coming out the gate, but I love the fact that he's not sharing a backfield in week one. And I love that this Titans defense is not what we saw.

Now they've made some improvements, signed some guys, not saying they're not going to be coached up. Rable defensive coach, clearly not an offensive coach. But Jamal Williams, who led to the defense. the league with 17 rushing touchdowns last year is plus 105 to score a touchdown. We don't exactly know how Derek Carr is going to come out, run to pass, pass to run, play action to open it up. Camaro's on a suspension.

Jamal Williams inside the 10, there might not be a more lethal lad in the game. His ability to find the end zone was more than just last year on the Lions. Now, not the same offensive line, not even close, but I love the combination of the number one rushing touchdown leader last year, getting plus money without a split backfield with a new quarterback that may actually need to lean on him in these spots, especially in the red zone to get in the end zone. Give me Jamal Williams at plus 105.

Once he gets in, oh, they're going minus next week. You can forget about this line. I'm going to take Justin Jefferson, not at his normal 91 and a half on draftings. I'm going to go over 100 plus receiving yards. A couple of trains of thoughts here. Did this 10 times last year. Came out Scotty's on Dr. Evil Fire last year in week one. 184 receiving yards, including as long as catch of the season week one.

Shout of my guy, Paul. Two touchdown game, 64-yarder to the crib against the Packers. New weapons. Okay. Kirk non-prime, voluntarily tuck. Kirk Cousins on a Saturday. Nice husband. Good dude.

Pleasant lad. He's coming in with a couple of new weapons. Alexander Madison takes over the Dalvin Cook role. Jordan Addison out of USC takes over the Thielen roll. Do we not think there's going to be a little bit of Kurt Cucson? cousin's going to his Jack Burns Fawker circle of trust

in week one more than he ever will this season. He's going to go to the guys that he trusts in week one. Going against a box team, don't particularly believe in this club at all. A little bit better defense and offense sure, but Kurt NOMPrimetime

is going to go to the number one receiver in the league early. He's going to go to him often. And if he gets a hundred plus yards, we're getting even money at plus 100. And I'm looking at it. He's done it 10 times. All right. He's gone over triple ditch 10 times. And I just can't make the case that Addison is going to feast week one like he will this season. I do love on draft Kings. Addison to get over a thousand receiving yards that plus 480. If you like that value worth a sprinkle. But I just

see it so crystal clear. Going to JJ knows him the best. Not even T.J. Hawk, who is now gone. Did he have a consistent tight end, sun up the sun down? Last year in many, a little bit of turnover at the tight end position as well. So I love the spot. I love the play and I love the rationale if I don't tip myself on my own back. And we wrap up with a guy. And if you know this, they are one of my six picks.

It's an emotional fire. But the Chicago Bears at home, little brother against. Big Brother, oldest brother of three over here. So I love a Jimmy, Johnny Harbaugh battle of older brothers always win. But on this instance, I'm going with the Justin Fields Younger Brother. Anytime Tug plus 145. Did it two times against the Green Bay Packers last year. All right?

14 carries between those two games. One, he rushed for 71. But the Packers rushedy last year, bottom 70. gave up damn near 140. This is a new cast of characters. You got Claypool full season now. Mooney moves to the three spot where he should depth chart wise. DJ Moore, a true one.

Interesting backfield, but a top three rushing team from last year. And there is 40 yard dash speed and game speed. And next to Jalen Hertz and Lamar, Justin Fields is far in away. My third favorite rushing quarterback in this last. league and I think he puts on on Sunday and he gets in the end zone. I've seen Justin Fields get in the endstone early rather than later even watch him get the first tug. Do I dare say the Bears ain't a 7-0 start.

I'm taking those four. So Echler over 32 and a half receiving Jamal Williams league leader last year to get in the end zone. Fields anytime at plus 145. Excellent value. You did it twice against the go pack go last year. And JJ, best receiver in the league to hit triple digits on. receiving yards.

That's prop shopping, baby. Let's get to the dirty dog of the week. This is gross. And it's not a huge line, but it's a disgusting play. I am fading the greatest cover in the league over the last two years, Joey Burr and the Cincinnati Bengals. I am taking and plugging my Jewish Italian schnaz, the Cleveland Browns plus two and a half.

And I'm sprinkling on the money line. Oh, baby, I have to do it. Three reasons and three trains of thought here with this dirty dog. First of all, historically, week one, divisional dogs are an unbelievable cover. I'm talking 15 and 2 against the spread since 2012. 15 and 2, Jerry, and 7 in 0 since 2018. So every divisional dog has covered since 2018 and 15 out of the 17. times since 2012.

This game, some games are just about an unglamorous element, but a pivotal one. This is about the trenches. And on both sides of the football, the Browns are going to dominate on the line of scrimmage. PFF has this offensive line for Cleveland's second ranked in the league only behind the Philadelphia Eagles. suck it. A sick with it, Miles Garrett-led front line. Going against really a Joe Burrow guy again sacked,

an offensive line that allow our guy to get sacked over 40 times again. And think back much different injury, human element, ruptured his appendix, needed emergency surgery in August. Burrow did not have a normal training camp preseason again last year. How did he come in week one? Do four interceptions caught in L week one. So you're saying, and Deshaun, who again, we got a 10 second time from 51st dates.

We got to forget last year because he wasn't good and he played what, five, six games. He is finally with stability as far as a real training camp, a real preseason. And he's inherited an Elijah Moore and he's got a great line to protect him. I think Amari Cooper has a huge year. You have, to me, a better trenches on both sides. You have a hurt burrow coming in that we're banking on being 100%. We're banking non-contract injury. Don't love that.

And oh, by the way, how is he against the Browns? Not good. One and four in his career. Did you know that? I bet you didn't. Joe Burrow is one and four against the brownies, and that includes against progressive insurance Baker Mayfield. Just to really let you know how mediocre he is against this team, one in four, first the

Browns, 28, 15 and one versus all other teams. It might be his kryptonite. It might be his Achilles heel. Now, Stefansky is not a great cover against this North team, the North Division, but we have a lot on our side. We got the better trenches. We have a healthier team and quarterback coming in at home, by the way, at home, for what it's worth, historically Burrow, not good against this club and coming in injured.

And where are we as far as the trajectory of the. Browns. I see some respectable cappers that have them going all the way. I mean, this team could be massively undervalued. Getting points at home, dirty dog of the week. Cleveland, this is for you. And we get out of here real quick

with a Hail Mary Parley. Only rule is that it's 10 to 1. Only rule. And I'm going to make it easy. I'm going to take three clubs I've already spoke about so I don't need to repeat myself. Pittsburgh money line. Saints money line. Cleveland Brown's money line and hot dot da. My fourth team. I'm going to go the Dallas Cowboys on the road prime time against the New York football giants. Now, not saying they're going to cover the three and a half bucks every home divisional dog,

trend we just spoke about. What they are going to do, though, us win this game. A team that's won 12 games in the last two years under McCarthy, a team that's absolutely dominated the NFC East. Go look it up. And a team and Dak Prescott specifically. That has just owned the New York Giants. There's not much else to say. In fact, I went and look, the dude, Dak is 10 and 2 against New York and hasn't lost to them since 2016. I almost had to go over it, go over it, go over it a third time. So for me, you go top to bottom, bottom the top. Woody from Toy Story for the Giants ain't under center moving against a defense that has the

defensive player of the year this year, second again in a row and second in voting to Bosa, Micah Parsons. This defense was number one in takeaways, almost two per game, top six and points allowed. number one in red zone efficiency last year covering a 71% clip and they just own this team. This is big brother, little brother. I'm not saying Martindale,

the Simmons pickup was huge on the defensive side and Dable can't coach up this club. Let's not outthink the room here. This Dallas Cowboys team is flying above nine and a half. I have them to win the east. I have them. represent the NFC this year in the Super Bowl. I think this club takes a leap.

They're doing everything well. If Dak can just chill out on the interceptions, all they have to do in this game, game manage on offense, let the Giants do what they do and not move the football easily. They're going to humble Sequan make Daniel Jones beat them

and Danny Woody from Toy Story ain't doing it. All day, today, all day tomorrow, the Cowboys win that game. Cowboys Money Line with the Brown, Steelers, and Saints. Depth chart, you heard it. Saints minus three. Chargers, minus three Steelers, plus two, plus two and a half, pending where you shop. You heard the props, all four of them, plus three EV. Browns plus two and a half.

30 dog of the week, do I dare say, confetti sprinkle on the money line and the Hail Mary Lay, Steelers, Brown, Saints, and Jerry's world to round out. Plus, 1004, a little over 10 to 1 on Draft Kings. Appreciate y'all. Don't forget to subscribe, rate review. I'll be humming all year on social, doing a ton of live streams as well. So go check out Money Line Monaco.

For Paul, for myself, for our humble gambling island here. Let's start out. At least two and one with the depth chart picks. Don't forget, as always, the hug of your mother. We'll see you. Next with me. Thank you.