The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Week 11 Bets: Cowboys-Vikings, Chiefs-Chargers, Jets-Patriots, Eagles-Colts

Episode Date: November 19, 2022

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting insight and gives you his final bets heading into Week 11 of the NFL season starting with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys taking on Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and the Vikings, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs vs Justin Herbert and the Chargers, MVP candidate Jalen Hurts taking on Jonathan Taylor and the Colts, Bill Belichick and the Patriots vs Zach Wilson and the Jets, and much more! #Volume #Herd #ColinCowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Can you believe we're in the double digits, people? All I know, oh, baby, nine winning weeks on the Moneyline, Monaco weekend podcast on the Volume Sports Network brought to you by the herd feed. Again, if you've been cashing, if you've been enjoying, goes a long way, rating, subscribing, reviewing. Please let me know if you're joining in on the fun Moneyline, Monaco, all things social, Alex Monaco on Twitter. And we're pushing.

We're keeping it pushing. Look, last three weeks, four and one against the spread, three one and one against the spread, three and two against the spread. Don't want to say we're in the Cranston lap cooking. The sleeves are rolled up, all right? We got no family. I should say no wife, no mortgage, no kids. We're Danny dialed. If we're not going at least three and two, we got problems.

But again, in the betting world, it's all about what you do next. So let's dive in. I got some games I love. A lot of numbers that are landing on interesting. lines I'll get into because the thinking is completely different on a couple of these. I'm on some minus threes, but let's get into it. Let's start with our Markey

matchup of the weekend. And I love it. I'm licking my chops. Licking them, Jerry. The Cowboys Head off. Really? Let's call it a unfathomable loss against the Green Bay Packers, up 14 late. Green Bay was getting 12 and a half live on the spread. If you were with me last week listening,

I was all over the cheeseheads. Packers, I took them on the money line, all my picture on Action Network. It's a trap bet. It's a perfectly timed bet. And here we are again looking at the painting with the Cowboys in the painting, but a completely different view.

And I cannot wait to fade Kirk Cousins this weekend. I cannot wait. The 10,000 feet in the air chain, whatever you want to call the good vibe in the air that the Vikings are doing, loving life coming back from a game. They always lose in Buffalo, always lose. And I had Buffalo Money Lions and Parley's not happy about it.

This game is personal to me. All right. This team, how are they a one loss club? Wow. It's not who they are. But I'll tell you one thing. They're only 5, 4, 4, and 1 against the spread. And I'll tell you another.

The Cowboys come in. And this is Pro's Joe's. Public perception is evident here no more than any other game this week. Everyone will emotionally be betting the Vikings this weekend in Minnesota and be fading the Cowboys. Just from what they've saw. just from what they've saw with their own eyes and their own betting eyes over the last week. Now, let's talk about this because again, everyone seems to forget that the Cowboys defense is not still incredibly dominant.

All right, this front seven has the most sacks in the league. Their secondary is given up 166 over the last four games passing. That's insane. No quarterback over 200, at least on average, in the last four games passing against his team. They rank in the top five in a multitude of categories. We know scoring defense their top five. Passing yards allowed their top five. I just mentioned it, particularly in the last four weeks.

They're net yards per passing attempt. So you can't stretch the ball on them. And again, a very well-balanced offense. Believe it or not, it's not the Ravens, it's not the Falcons, it's not the Eagles. it's the Cowboys leading in the rushing touchdown category. Now, let's stop crowning this Minnesota team. You gave up 486 yards to the bills. It's the second time you've given up that many yards this season.

You've allowed over 111 rushing yards six times, over 2777 passing yards five times. I'm just telling you right now that Minnesota defense has been opportunistic in the last month of football. They're not a great defense. They're not.

And this offensive line for Minnesota that is banged up, by the way, banged up, and Anthony Barr, the ex-viking could be coming back for this lineback and core. Kirk's been sacked 12 times over the last four games,

12 times, three sacks a game. He's been hurried or knocked down dozens. plural. He's getting knocked on his keister, Jerry. Let's look at Dak Prescott since he's been back with the club. Two and one, the Cowboys are against the spread. Now he goes for 207 against the Lions, one tug, no pick. Again, Chicago, 250 yards, two tugs, one pick.

Now, of course, after the buy, 265, three tugs versus the Packers, but two picks. He did a little too much. We need to go into this game, betting, the Cowboys money line. Again, forget the one and a half. It's minus 120 on Fandle. Don't flirt with the one. They win by one. You're going to hate them. Take the money line. Pay the extra price. The key number, ironically, is less than three yards from what the Cowboys average rushing. So 137 is what Minnesota holds rushing offenses to or less when they find success. in the last five games in which teams have put up 137 or less,

the Vikings have outscored these opponents, 166 to 96. When they get opponents over 137, they're outscoring, Kirk Puzzins and the boys. Oh, you don't even want to know. So for me, I put last week in a drawer. JJ with maybe the greatest regular season catch of all time, 10 for 193. Dalvin Cook was remarkable.

119 in a tug, racked up a ton in overtime. Hawkinson, productive again. Seven to ten targets, but again, remind yourself. Remind yourself that the Cowboys are the Cowboys. And this team,

identity-wise, to McCarthy and Kellamore's credit, actually I think knows who they are. Offensively speaking. They're cooking. They're really cooking. Particularly Tony Paul. He's rocked up 275 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns over the last two weeks.

They put up a combined 77 points. The team is humming. Again, this Cowboys Vikings matchup, they mirror each other quite a bit stylistically. We have the better defense. We have a team off a loss pissed off. Again, McCarthy against Rogers. I spoke on the narrative.

There are such a thing. There is such a thing as a distraction, in my humble opinion. And I, for that reason, went with the Packers last week. This week, the distraction is Alan, the Vikings play-by-play guy. Everyone's just going ballistic. I'm telling you, the money is on the Cowboys. The bets are on. the Vikings. Go to Vegas Insider. Go to Veecen. Go to Action Network. Go look at the splits.

I am on the sharp side for this one. We kick off the program and I'll end it by saying. Dallas has won four of the last five against the Vikings. Four of the last five. Give me Jerry's world on the road in a big way. Second pick, I could be walking into a trap. I'm going to keep this one short, but it's the Kansas City Chiefs prime time against the LA Chargers. The number on Fandu is six and a half right now. If it goes up to seven, mausel tuff from half my relatives. Because if you can get Chargers plus seven, lock it in. Go back to week two, 27, 24. I'm not even going to sell you something you don't need. This is a divisional game. The dog is at home. We are getting a much larger number than a three and a half or a four, which is a lot of these conversations,

it is prime time. And the Chargers have been an excellent cover. They're six and three against the spread. Matter of fact, there's only, only one team on the road that is undefeated as an underdog this season. A dog getting points on the road, the L.A. Chargers have the best win-loss record because it's undefeated when they're on the road getting points. Here they are again.

And you know this team. You're laying points with them. You hate your life. You hate your life. I took them Chargers minus three against the Falcons a couple weeks back in Atlanta. It's not fun. But I took them last week in their humble loss against the Niners. They covered no sweat.

Chargers was the right side. One of our Ws. We're going right back to the well. But again, now we get them off a loss rather than a win in Atlanta, which is even more exciting. and know the history of Chiefs versus Chargers in the Patrick Mahomes era. Six out of nine games for Patty against this club since 2018, six out of the nine have been, check please, decided by seven points or fewer.

Seven points or fewer, six out of the nine matchups. Two-thirds of the outings we have on our side statistically with this number presented to us. Now, I'll tell you, Patty Mahomes couldn't be hotter. 1,200 yards, 8 tugs over the last three weeks, no picks, no mistakes. But know what the Chargers are against the Chiefs. The last four outings, they've scored collectively over 50 points. Why? Because the Chargers go tit for tat with them.

Herbert, week two, on the road, hostile environment, short week. Got to play Sunday, week one, and then Thursday week two, forget about it. He goes, 33 of 48, not great completion, but 3 34 yards, three togs. Three togs, Mikey Williams might be suiting up. Keenan Williams might be shooting up. Mike Williams went 8 for 113 and a tug on that week two. What Herbert's doing with a pack of stittles in a side of a crunch bar on offense with weapons, offensive line down, top two weapons down, scrambling to get Echler going,

the first part of the season. I own him in fantasy, multiple, multiple leagues. Guys on my roster, he's been cooking. Ackler's been cooking. Tick him to score a touchdown. He's going to score a touchdown. The touchdown scoring machine. Beginning the year, not so much.

Point being, Herbert, he is the guy. He is the guy. You're betting on Herbert to cover this number for you. Backdoor cover, J.H. He did it week two. He did it week two. They were about to win the game. He throws a pick six.

He comes back. He still covers for us. Chargers plus four. If the Chargers can cover four in Arrowhead, why is the number six and a half at all? Look, from San Diego, I know this. There's going to be a sea of red. It's going to be Kansas City faithful everywhere.

Just remind yourself when you go to punch this ticket in or you don't. Two thirds of the time, the number we need has been covered in this. rivalry and it's a divisional matchup, baby. You got to put those games in a separate betting drawer. We keep it pushing. Now, I could be walking right into a bear trap. I could be walking into the last scene of Anchorman where all of a sudden there's no ladder

and I'm in the freaking jungle with the bears. Or it could be a genius. I'm going down with the Indianapolis cults. Emotional purchase plus six and a half. I'm doing it. And I'm doing it with a lot of confidence. And look, it's an emotional purchase because I believe in Jeff Saturday and what I've seen when I saw.

And again, I took the Colts on Action Network, not one of my plays, plus a four and a half at the Raiders and the money line. Had to clean up of an afternoon between the Packers and the Colts, two dogs. This team, again, they're run by a center now. Jeff Saturday was under the Peyton Manning Colts. You want to talk about leaders of men, of all time leaders of men. Saturday was right next to Peyton Manning for over a decade, man. You come into this game.

What did they do exactly what they should have done against the Raiders? Running down their throat like the offensive line, we thought this Colts team was last year. and the number one running game from last year, at least from a pure running back standpoint, Jonathan Taylor, they showed it on full display against the Raiders. Now, of course,

the Eagles run D is a lot better than the Raiders run deep, but not the last few weeks with no Jordan Davis. All right, they actually have two defensive tackles banged up. Maddox and the secondary is out. Goddard's on IR. A.J. Browner at his ankle. He's banged up.

let's let's go there in a second let's stay on the colts here we're getting six and a half might I remind you the narrative in the sports broadcasting world is the cults are terrible well just so you know they've really only outside of the trap game which was the frank right castaway send him on his wilson volleyball route into the middle of the ocean to get sauced by ursay this doctor evil sick animal. Look, to be honest, I don't know what's going on with upper management. You tell one coach to sit your veteran. You tell the new coach, do whatever you want. I mean, forget about it. It's exhausting. The point is it's about the players and the personnel in that locker room, the 53 men. And I saw Ryan go 21 for 28 with 22, one tug, no mistakes.

And JT go for 22 and 147. That's 6.7 on the ground with a tutty. and along a 66, and I'm at Ryan, longest rush yard of 39 in his career. Again, they got blown out 24-0, 24-0 earlier in the season against the Jags. The Jags owned the Colts. I was on that game, I told it to you. It's something ridiculous, like 13 straight covers. It's insane. Divisional game, I just told it to you.

Put it in the drawer. Okay? Ellinger on the road against Belichick rookie quarterback, he feasts on him for breakfast. Put that aside. every other game, their defense keeps them in it again. This defense is statistically top 10 in almost every category. And I want you to remind yourself of this. The Eagles team comes out.

They average 20 points per game offensively in the first half. They don't play from behind. They don't play at all under duress. What happened the first time we saw them Monday night on full display on Natty TV in front of the whole wide world? Hertz goes what? Three and out? With the game on the line, a baby back three and out.

Again, we're crowning the Eagles. Do you remember who the last undefeated team was last year? Who fell off a cliff? Dude, where's my car? Hey, one in the Cardinals, bro. Hey, one in the Cardinals. Look, I'm just telling, Eagles Colts historically, all three last games have been by four points or less.

Colts have never lost four straight to an opponent by four points or fewer. So that trend tells you they will either get blown out or they will cover this game. No in between. No 10 point victory. They cover the six and a half and they don't. And I look at the Eagles, let's go five weeks back here. Let's go five weeks back. Okay, you blow out the Steelers, rookie.

That's fine. You blow out the Cowboys in the first half. Cooper Rush. Okay. you beat the Cardinals by three, you tied the Texans by half, you're down at half on Monday night. We got a short week. Let's not forget that. Do you know what away favorites are this year?

Away favorites. It's not looking good, man. It's not looking good. And the Eagles, yeah, not, not an away favorite lock by any means. Go look it up. For me, the cold. Colts defense schematically will keep them in this game. It's a whole different offense if A.J. Brown is out too.

Because they're going to have to run the ball and this Colts team, they stop the run. They do. Remind yourself. Both defenses give up 18 and 20 points here. All right. So if you're going off of defense versus defense and you get the home team with six and a half, You could argue you blindly take that. We're crowning the Eagles.

This is a young man at quarterback, a stud, but a young man. I actually misspoke real quick on that Chargers stat. Just want to jump back on my notes. I misread it. The Chargers are the only away favorite that is undefeated, not a road favorite. They are excellent on the road. They've covered five straight, but the Chargers are 3 and 0. The Titans are 2 in 0 when they are.

the favorite. So away favorites, only one, two, and no team, one three and O team. Neither are the Eagles. Philly's one and three is a road favorite. India's one and oh is a home dog. Let me the six and a half.

Jeff Saturday on a Sunday. All right, we keep it pushing. I'm going to do this. I don't love it. I have to. I got to take the Patriots minus three here. All right. They've won 13 consecutive games

against the Jets. They haven't lost to them since before the 2016 season. Here's a weird one. The Jets are 5 and O when they throw for more than 250 passing yards, one and three when they throw less. That is basically telling you, Zach Wilson, please don't try to take over the game. What did he do just a few short weeks ago

in the 2217 L against the Patriots? He threw the ball way too many times. He threw the ball for not one, not two, three interceptions. against the Patriots. Mack had a pick, but still serviceable 24 for 35. He wasn't great.

Not going to sit here and say that. Stevenson goes 16 for 71 in that game. Michael Carter did nothing. That was the week they had to deal with the haul injury for IR. 7 for 26. Jay Rob acquired 5 for 17. They didn't run the ball. So what I'm telling you is this is a scheme pick.

I am picking the Patriots at home off a buy. watching this team, the Jets, off a bottom, because of coaching, because of scheme. Again, go look at it. Points, four points against, points, giving up points against. They're almost statistically the same. 22 and 21, 18 and 19, yards per game separated by 17. Okay, the paths have more sacks with 31. Their top three.

Jets are 11th. And they're both tie with 11 picks. Both quarterbacks will likely turn the ball over. This game will be gross. It will be ugly. but the Robert Sala CVS receipts, they don't work in this game. They don't work. I'm telling you right now, do you want to take the Patriots at home, extra prep?

You want to take the Jets off, again, a flying high steal of a win. It was a long time ago because we saw Buffalo drama already. E-channel galore there with this snow coming in. The Bills gave the game away against the Jets. if this number goes to three and a half, I want you to refrain. Find Patriots money line with a cupcake out there. I'm taking this at Pats minus three.

Just, I'm not selling you much longer than this. Since week five, the Pats have three wins by 23 points or more. That equals the same amount of wins by that margin by all other NFL teams combined in that span. Let me remind you, week five on the Patriots, I've blown out opponents, not once, not twice, three times. I'm telling you, there's certain Belichick matchups, Fisong, Elngar on the road. Jared Goff, outdoor lad, SoCal soft on the road, 29-0, smoke the Colts. I mean, honestly, smokes them.

So again, we can go back and forth. Stats are almost the same scheme and defense. The Jets are not running the ball on Sunday. So is Zach Wilson going to be Belichick's defensive scheme? No, he's not. No, he's not. Now, I'll be real pissed if it lands on three. I'm hoping the Patriots come out and cook.

Again, Zach didn't put up seven points or more in any quarter against this Patriots team at home in a cozy environment. He's not in mid-November going to Joe. And cooking. There's no way. Remind yourself who you're backing in this position. Patriots minus 3. And we wrap with the New York football giants.

I am taking the hometown team in which I live. I am loving. Dable. Martin, wink, Adel versus Dan Campbell in the Lions. Off their first road win in 13 tries. I mean, honestly, you could not get the Lions off a win. They never should have had.

at a better spot. The Giants, this is such a gorgeous spot. I love this place so much. And I will say the tickets are on the Giants. The money's on the Lions. So I'm on the sharp side on a lot of these from what I've looked up. The public is on the Giants here. I'm okay with it.

You've heard me talk about being on the public side. Danny Dimes, the last time he went against Detroit, he threw for over 300 yards, four tugs, no mistakes. And they lost. He's done that twice in his career. Only Andrew Luck has done that three times once more. Danny Dimes threw for four tugs, no mistakes, over 300 yards against his Lions Deep as a young lad.

Now he's Woody from Toy Story 3 with Dayball. Coached up hasn't thrown a pick since September. Daniel Jones doesn't thrown a pick since September. He's thrown two picks this season. This is what they do. They run the ball. They don't turn the ball over. They play great defense.

This giant's D on third down. It's historic. Opposing teams have a third down completion percentage of 43.2% against them. Think about that. Completion percentage, not moving the chains. Teams aren't even completing passes against the Giants on third down, less than 50%. It's the lowest by a team since 98. That is what Wink has brought from Baltimore to this giant's organization.

You could not ask for a more coached up squad. This team's 7 and 1 in non-divisional games this year. And again, the discrepancy of defense versus defense in this is so evident. All right. The Lions give up damn near 30 points a game. The Giants don't even give up 20. Golf indoors, cozy versus golf outdoors. All right.

He had a decent game against Chicago. No one expected him to have any kind of a game. He still only went for 19 for 26 with one tug in a 31 point effort for the Lions. those are serviceable numbers. Chicago's defense shows up once in a blue moon. This Giants defense is the reason they're 7 and 1 in addition to Danny Dimes not throwing the ball and turn the ball over.

The Giants D, the most points they've even given up because, oh, we're going to talk about the Lions offense here? Okay. Well, you gave up 27 of the Seahawks in Seattle. That was a trap bet. We were on the Seahawks. They gave up 23 of the Cowboys on Monday night. Outside of that, 16 to the Texans, 17 in the Jags, 20 of the Ravens, 22 of the Packers, 12 to the Bears, 16 to the Panthers, 20 to the Titans.

No one's putting up over 20 points against them. Packers put up 22, they lost. The Lions have won two straight. This number is the number because of that sentence. They have given up. 30 to the Bears, 31 to the Fins, 45 to the Seahawks. They didn't score. against the Patriots. The Giants come in. They didn't give up more than seven points to the Texas in any quarter. They led the whole game.

Go look at Danny Diamond's passer rating. Immaculate game plan. Seque One, out of his mind. Career high, 35 rushing attempts, 152 yards against the Texans. Most carries by a giant since 99. I'm telling you, they know who they are.

They're coming into their own. The Giants' home field is real. The lions on the road. They're going to get, smacked. Well, they won't get smacked. But I got the Giants to cover. So we wrap up. Cowboys money line over the Vikings. We got the Chargers plus six and a half. I hope you can get plus seven. Colts plus six and a half at home over the Eagles. Patriots minus three at home over the Jets. Patriots minus three over the Jets. And we go to the G men. Minus three over the Lions. And we wrap it up.

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