The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Week 18 Bets: Lions-Packers, Seahawks-Rams, Browns-Steelers ,Titans-Jaguars

Episode Date: January 7, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting insight and gives you his final bets heading into Week 18 of the NFL season with multiple playoff clinching games including Aaron Rodgers and the Packers needing to win vs Jared Goff and the Lions, Geno Smith and the Seahawks can clinch a playoff spot if they beat Baker Mayfield and the Rams, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars vs Derrick Henry and the Titans, Russell Wilson and the Broncos taking on Justin Herbert and the Chargers, and much more! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. It's sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco, presented by Fandul. It might be cold, but the sports calendar is heating up and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandul. The app is safe, secure, easy to use. Fandual always has exclusive offers, boosts, and more. When you win, you'll get paid incredibly fast. Fandual has tons of ways to bet. You got the spread, the money line, over unders, team totals, player props, and so much more.

Jump into the action at any time during the game with live betting. You can also combine multiple bets from the same game in a same game parlay and even try out the same game parlay plus combining multiple bets within multiple games. And Fandual is now live in Maryland. So use promo code Monaco and download the Fandul app today to start making every moment more. And welcome in to another episode of Sports Gambling with Moneyline. I'm your host, Alex Monica, fired up to be with you, week 18 in the NFL season. We have made it.

Before we dive in, just want to take a second. Monday night, what happened on the field in Sincere, Damar Hamlin, the whole football world watching, the whole world watching, collapsed, of course, went into cardiac arrest. Thank God for the NFL first responders to be able to be there and do whatever they could to get this man. off of the field in the best way possible to Cincinnati medical centers to continue to care for them. It was a surreal moment. I was watching live with family. It was unfathomable.

You listen to players, coaches, all football walks of life. No one has experienced what we saw. It brought everyone to tears. There were no words. It was truly a horrific. moment. But thank God that as we've heard, it did happen there. And there was care, of course, on the spot to make sure he was attended to. And as we speak, he is, of course, still battling in the Cincinnati Medical Center. Apparently, he can at the moment, feel other hands of family

members as positive. And the oxygen is going down, which means it is so far. positive news again. We keep DeMar and his family in our prayers. It was just a surreal moment. It made you stop anything that we always, you know, think about when we watch football. And we got real human and just want to take a second to make sure, you know, I spoke on that and just, you know,

really an unthinkable moment. We can only hope that DeMar Hanwin makes a full recovery and he's okay. We took a couple days off of betting and just a couple days to, you know, reflect. And I'm actually in California not to go into it, but going through some stuff with my family, not back in New York. I'm on my other show as well. So, you know, just a very emotional week for the sports world for anyone and just, you know, want to take a moment.

Make sure you hug your loved ones. Let them know you love them, your friends, your family. Make sure you check on people. And, you know, life is a lot more important than a football game. So without further ado, let's get into it here. Switching, switching moods, you know, let's get, let's get into it. Week 18. And before we dive in, I want to let you know, five picks against the spread.

All weekend pods documented on the Action Sports Network. I told you week one, if you remember, we're going to do a Monaco Money meter. I didn't really keep you up to date week to week. But as we stand going into week 18, 45, 34, and 3. against the spread. Now, you know, some of those were one and a half, one lines. I told you to take money line, but for the most part, 45 W's, 34Ls, three pushes against the spread all on the volume sports weekend pod.

Very proud of that. We're up if you were to bet 50 to win, $65. So if you were to do an even 100 to win with me, you'd be up, you know, a fourth of man at and rent, which knowing that, yes, I am a professional sports betting host, but I do not make my money or living as a sports better specifically, unlike fellow cousin podcast, Simon Hunter, the professional Sharp Honor Network.

Their 50 wins and 30 losses, I believe if I'm not mistaken, to this point. So to just be a few Ws below the professionals, feel very good about it. You know, we take this seriously. Bob picks, week 18,

you know, this is a different week than most. It was hard. It was very hard to find. and dig for five quality games that I truly believe in against the spread. A lot of teams out of it or locked up or seatings are already put. So we found five. I feel we are going three and two. We went three and two ATS last weekend.

Let's get into it. Five picks. Don't forget to subscribe rate review if you're enjoying yourself on Moneyline, Monaco on all platforms. Here we go. First up Sunday night football in Lambe. Bo Packers. And I got to give myself some flowers here. Yes, I am tapping myself on my own back. If you heard me, you follow me on social. You listen to the best game we show ever would live.

I preached to everybody. Take the Packers at plus 880 on our shop d' duel to make the playoffs. I didn't believe who was ahead of them. And I didn't believe this team was over. They weren't moving on. And here we are. The Packers have won. An incredible month plus of football to be here. Playing incredible on both sides. The commanders have completely fallen flat. They have blown it. The Seahawks now have to win and get help to get in.

And we obviously know the rest of the wildcars like the lions. They need help. This is fascinating. So I'm sitting on almost 9 to 1 right now on a ticket for the Packers just to make the playoffs. I'll go into how much I believe in this team, but I am all over this. And normally, you would want to back the Lions here.

They're a top three cover. Still, just like they were last year, top five cover, top three cover this year. They've covered 11 games, four and a half, divisional dance. You would think you would lean Detroit here. I cannot do it. I cannot do it.

I've watched with my own eyes. I've backed his Packers team with my pocket. and I've watched every snap. It is what Colin says. When Aaron Rogers chooses to re-engage and really strap into being a Tom Brady type leader, you see what it does. You see the ripple effect. This man owns the Lions,

just like he owns the Vikings last week. He's 18 and 7 against him all time. How about this? From 2008 on, he's never dropped three games against Detroit. And he's actually on a two-game losing streak against this team. I will back that trend to continue. I love the Packers. Let's not forget it's January football. Let's remind ourselves one six under center JG 16. Jared Gough is a California

kid prior to going to New York and catching a win against the jets who have completely free fall by the way and the Lions caught him at a good time. Gough is not an outdoor quarterback. Matter of fact, prior to that game he was 0.2 against the spread. No tugs five picks. in freezing temperatures. This is a night game, prime time. And here's the other element. Detroit, if Seattle loses, is out. They can't even make the playoffs.

Because if, excuse me, Seattle wins. If Seattle beats the Rams, which they should up in the P&W, we're actually picking on that game as well, then this game for Detroit is nothing but trying to stump the Schwab, trying to end stake farm insurance,

and send Aaron Rogers and the Packers home, which, yes, I'm not saying they're not going to come in. Dan Campbell, two coffees motivated. They're going to be motivated. I'm just saying this is the Packers game to win. And you look at this winning streak here. It's a combination of LaFleur. Thank you, Dodgeball, Peter, Matt, whatever the heck your name is,

figuring out what the heck to do on offense. Finally, you know this. And Colin talked about as well. They are 10 in 0, Green Bay. And oh, when they run the ball. under the floor 50% of the time. That's all we're asking. That's all we said the whole season.

It took a while to get here. You got an Aaron Rogers ego. You got a young wide receiver core. You have an ownerless football team. We've already heard many people speak on how no one can hold Aaron Rogers accountable. But all of a sudden something happened and he started to hold himself accountable.

Thank you, adult in the room. And here we are. An offense that is humming in the last five weeks. Average in 29.75. They're giving up. All right. This win streak, they've held opponents to 20 or less on almost all these. They're giving up 17 per.

17 per in the last four weeks. They're double-digit outscoring opponents. point four versus points against. I'm looking at this Packers team, winning and covering, coming in, Aaron Rogers in December and January, 22 and 11 against the spread under Aaron Rogers. How about this head to head between the Lions and the Packers? The home team has covered the last six meetings, the last six.

I'm looking at this Lions D. I can't convince myself. They're going to stop Aaron Rogers. It's really a game where you have to say to yourself. And I'm not saying the spread doesn't factor in. It's four and a half. It could very well be. But you have to say to yourself,

the hungrier, more assertive team with a better understanding of what they are and the experience on top of it, you factor all of that in. you lean Green Bay in every one of those categories. Detroit doesn't necessarily have momentum here. They don't. Yeah, they came off a blowout win. Ironically, both teams put up 41 last week,

but Detroit has, I think really, look, they're here because they played second half of football incredibly well, but they're in this spot where they need help because they did not win out and play absolutely lights out football the rest of the season,

like we saw the Green Bay Packers do. I'm going to take the team with more momentum at home with the better quarterback, with the more experienced quarterback. Last thing I'll say is when is the last time the Detroit Lions franchise has played a meaningful playoff implication football game? I'm going to go out on a limb and say pre-pandemic and it's not hard to do. All right? This team hasn't been competitive in,

Years. iPhone 4, iPhone 3? I don't know. I don't have enough time. I'm taking Green Bay with conviction. Maybe they blow them out. Maybe they win 2620. I'm not fading Aaron Rogers. This is a perfect game to tease down, by the way. Take the Packers to win with another cupcake. Detroit. I love Detroit. Hello, Detroit. Great song. They're going home. GP, swallow four and a half. Let's go to Saturday. Football here. Six and a half point line for the Tennessee Titans dancing against the Jaguars for the division. Both teams had games last week that didn't essentially matter in large part because it all came down to this. We got seven and nine verse eight and eight. Jaguars are hosting. And riddle yourself this. the Titans are here because they have completely, completely free-falled,

and the Jaguars are here because they're scorching on fire. Two teams trending in the complete different directions. If I were to tell you, the last time the Titans won a football game was the same night we gave up on the Packers, Natty TV, Tana Hill throws three touchdowns in Lambo, best game of the year, cooks, sauces Green Bay, 2717. They haven't won

since that. That was November 17th. We're in 2023. Bengals, Philly, Jags, Chargers, Houston, Dallas, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, unbelievable 6.

6 game losing streak for the Tennessee Titans, the longest in over a decade for the franchise, the longest under Vrable. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars have lost one time, one time since their buy after KC and that L. They come back to AB. Baltimore, 2827.

We had that pick, by the way, on the show. They got sauce by Detroit. After that, a month of Ws against the Titans, Cowboys, Jets, and Houston. And here we are. Real quick, going to lay you the history of the land here between these two. The Titans have covered four of their last five in Jacksonville against the spread. The road team has covered four of the last five head to head. you can say the Titans, and it's prevalent here,

the last time they've been bounced, double digit loss at home, they come back, they've covered four against the spread. And the Titans, say what you will. At their free fall, they are still a quality cover,

five, one, and one in their last seven on the road. Now, there is no more of a Jekyll and Hyde team than Jacksonville here. There's no more. They posted, six out of eight losses to start the season. Then they come out of nowhere.

And those were losses, five of those six by six points or more. This is a team that has won by 25 and lost by 25, only team in the league. But the offense, as we've seen in the last two months, averaging just under 27, absolutely scorching. Six and two on that stretch. Sunshine, the Sunshine State is looking, he's looking like the office. opposite of Spicoli. He's looking sensational. The flow is no better than it is now. But here's the other element. It's the same thing with Detroit. This is the biggest game of Trevor Lawrence's career.

Many of these players on the Jags career, it isn't for Doug E.P. Super Bowl head coach champion. But for these players, it's rare air, it's new territory. Now, it's not Tana Hill and it's not Malik Willis. It's the former Tennessee volunteer Joshua Dobbs, Who was serviceable against the Cowboys last week? 20 for 39-1, Tug-1 pick. That game was 10-6-and-half against the Cowboys. 17-13 after three, it was all Cowboys in the fourth. The game, and that was a 13-5-point spread,

didn't feature Derek Henry and several notable Tennessee Titans, and they almost covered. It was 13-5. Vegas is sick. They lost 27-13. But here's what we're looking at. We're looking at the biggest game for the Jags in the biggest free fall of Brable's career. Brable had never dropped more than four games, head coach for the Titans.

You look at these teams, and yes, Jacksonville outgains the Titans by a ton, by a ton, and that's mainly because of Tennessee's lack of passing the football. But the Titans are a little bit better on getting the quarterback and turning the ball over. Now, you look at that 3622 outing a few weeks ago where Jacksonville went in to Tennessee, and I was on Tennessee and I was seething because Derek Henry ran for over 80 yards in the first quarter and got a touchdown. And they were up 14-7 on Jacksonville. All right, they scored eight points the rest of the game.

They stopped giving the ball to King Henry. And I don't know what. I was banging my throw against the fridge beside myself. If Rayball can just do what LaFleur needs to do, run the ball with 2-7 down the golet and the soul of this Jacksonville Jaguars defense. Hold on the time of possession. Do what you do on defense, which they've looked terrible. It's terrible on defense. But in a rabble scheme, you bend but don't break. You get to the quarterback. You have, you have opportunistic moments defensively for turnovers. This is six and a half point long. All right. If Tennessee can get T. Law to turn the

ball over once. Fumble, pick, what have you. If they can get somebody to turn the ball over and they don't themselves turn the ball over, they will be in this game the whole game. Look, this is playoff football, people. Six and a half points is just too many. I don't care that it's Joshua Dobbs. Ryan Tanohill is in 84 and Madden, maybe. Ryan Tannenhill is never, you know what Ryan Tant Hill is.

He's never going to win you the big game. He's never, you saw it did against him. the Bengals in the playoffs, an embarrassing grown man performance three picks. I feel in this spot, Dobbs has a billet. There's not a ton of tape on Dobbs. There's house money and a mindset here where the Titans know that the Jags have to or need to win this game, at least according to the books, the professionals, no one is backing the Titans.

You talk about company culture. You talk about a few teams that matter. this spot where backing a team or not backing a team in the public eye matters. You don't think Vrable multiple multiple Super Bowl champion is aware of all this, bulletin board material. I'm out of here on this. Vrable is an underdog. Is 21.9 and 1 when he's getting three or more points.

21.9.1, that's 70%. How about straight up on that same sentiment? He's 19 and 12th. The whole world is going to be on Jacksonville, except for professional betters. I don't even need to look. I already know. Taking the Titans with the six and a half.

We're building a storyline here. And I mentioned, of course, Seahawks and the Rams up in the PNW. That directly impacts the last wild card seat here with the Packers and the Lions. Plays earlier in the day. The Rams are getting six and a half points. And I'm taking that straight.

to the LAR bank, baby, because the Seattle Seahawks, if you think they're going to cover six and a half points in a game where the Rams, oh, and oh, by the way, they absolutely own the Seattle Seahawks. They've won eight of their last 11 against them, covered seven of their last eight against them. And here's the other element. Teams and the Rams were just blown out. I got two relevant trends here for you.

coming off of 17 points or more of a loss going against a team that just beat somebody going for 17 points or more. Covers at a 61% clip, 102, 65 and 4aTS. That's a huge number, but it just goes to show you and CC talks about this a lot. The team that gets blown out, the following, the previous week comes back in dialed in. The team that blows somebody out comes in all high and mighty. Well, that's what we have here. Seattle dominated the jets, the Rams, embarrassed by the Chargers, the tenant of their stadium.

Now, we know the Rams are an excellent cover against this team. That's history. That's not Gino versus Baker. But we do know this Rams team is four and no covering in their last four after a loss. This Rams team, let's take a second. Free ball, all right, six game losing streak before progressive insurance got in the bill. And Mr. Mayfield comes in. and they go two and two.

This man is actually, I would say, revitalizing this Rams locker room that had absolutely no, no positivity for the rest of this season. They were done. Mayfield comes in. Pedestrians start against the Charters,

11 for 19, 132, no tucks, no picks. But most important, taking good care of the football, one interception in his four starts. First, the Broncos, a top five. defense all year, top three. He goes for 85% completion percentage, 24 for 28, two tugs, no picks, 51 points on the Broncos.

He had 17, 17, 17, and 14, and three of those quarters. Acres is now running the football better because of Baker Mayfield. Acres, 19 for 123 and 23 for 118 with three tugs against the Broncos. He's over 100 in his last two. Looking at this game, it's a huge number. let's say that. No pressure on the Rams. They already swat.

Remember, they don't have any draft picks. They're the Lakers. They don't have any reason there's no incentive to tank here. Zero. Seattle is going against a Rams D in two of the last four weeks that has given up 16 and 14.

That's 15 per. Seattle, two of their last three weeks, has scored 10 and 13 on offense. You see what I'm getting at here? Seattle has completely regressed. And the Rams, which this is fascinating and it does echo life, there's nothing to lose.

And so you're playing with house money, you're a little looser. You're on the dance floor, taking a little more than a Kevin James and hitch rubbing the Q-tips type of an attempt. All right, maybe you go a little Saturday night thief. Maybe you spin around, a little disco. It's what it is in this game.

The Rams are playing completely free on the dance floor. And the Seahawks are looking at the board. They're worried about the Packers Lions. They're worried about making sure that they deliver. It's nervous energy. I envision nervous energy in the PNW. I'll take the six and a half. There is still playoff implications for Pittsburgh football people.

Minus two and a half hosting the Browns. I've heard some sharps on the other side. I'm not worried about it. There's certain games that I have allowed professional betters to sway me, and there is no way I am putting money on the Cleveland Browns in Pittsburgh, after they already beat Pittsburgh once and are solely here to play spoiler. Sully. Pittsburgh is 5 and 1 in their last 6.

Riddle yourself this to you, Noggin, with a win and a Jets W over the Dolphins and a Patriots W over the bills. the Steelers make the playoffs. They are playing playoff. Kenny Pickett. Implication football in January. It is truly incredible. It is one of the greatest spin-around seasons

and Tomlin still has the ability to now never have an under-500 season with a W. We've seen. It's as impressive of a turnaround as the Packers. And here's the thing. The Steelers have been down by seven points or more in the fourth quarter in their past two games and Pickett out of New Jersey

has been dip dodged, sucking and diving all of the competition and coming through for Pittsburgh. Looking at it head to head here, Pittsburgh's covered three of their last five against the Browns. The Browns haven't swept the Pittsburgh Steelers since 1988. I was negative two. I wasn't even in Tommy Pickles diapers. Negative two, I was. The last time the Brown swept the Steelers.

This isn't even more impressive. that. Pittsburgh has won 18 consecutive games at home against Cleef. Look at their wins. Beating the Falcons holding them to nine. Beating the Broncos, holding them to 10. Now, this team, excuse me, this team to me, embodies exactly what you want in playoff football. tough defense. Naji Harris runs the ball well. They find a way to win. You notice that the Browns haven't won.

They had not beat under Deshawn Watson a starting quarterback. They beat Kyle Allen. They had six offensive points against the Texans. They beat the Ravens with Huntley. And they beat the commanders last week with wins. The two times they played quality teams. they lost to Andy back up Dalton as well. They lost to the same 1710.

They lost to the Bengals 2310. Two quality defenses there. They couldn't move the football. All right. DeShaw Watson has one multiple touchdown game with a quarterback rating of 78. Sack five times against the commanders. Here's the other element.

Sprown's offense has 12.6 points per game under Deshawn Watson in the five starts he has. They're not moving the football. Everyone thinks this is a better team. Not only does nobody like DeShon Watson in 2023 and not a soul in the land rooting for him outside of Cleveland. I don't like the guy. You won't see me back Cleveland the rest of the time he's there.

Can't do it, won't do it. This Pittsburgh defense is going to swallow this man up. Nick Chubb has had one 100-yard outing since Deshaun Watson's been under center. you can make a case that the offense, the chemistry has been disrupted. Now, Washington can, with Wents Under Center, can tend to make anybody look good. But let's call a spade a spade.

Cleveland team is mediocre at best. You got a Pittsburgh team, all right, that held the Ravens to three points or less in three of four quarters last week. I'll do you one better. In the last 12 quarters of football for the Pittsburgh defense, six quarters, they haven't given up a,

a basket. They don't give up a point. And 50% of their output in the last three weeks. Cleveland's playing spoiler. They're not going into Pittsburgh and beating them. Pittsburgh shows you with a rookie they can come back and win. There's nothing to be scared of here. Swallow the two and a half. Take the under because the under is the better bet. Real quick on that under, you have to take the under. It's gone 41 or below and seven in the last eight. for the Steeler games and all five unders for Deshawn Watson games. You have to go scuba, Steve under here, 12.6 points per game. Really put that in your cup of coffee.

I'm going to back the Cleveland Browns averaging under two touchdowns when you have a defense that hasn't given up a basket and half of their football in the last three weeks. We wrap with a tough pick because this. This LA Chargers team, if the Ravens lose earlier in the day to the Bengals, can lock up the five seed in the wild card. But essentially, prior to the Ravens blown against the Steelers, the Chargers needed the Ravens to lose one of their two games,

while the Chargers won out to lock in that five seat. Well, the Ravens lost, Chargers already have the five seed. They either need a win or a Ravens loss and they lock it up. Here's the thing about Stale. situationally, he's a seat. I don't think he has the the football coaching head coach acumen to figure out who to start, who to sit,

who to throw on a pitch count, who to not. I think he's playing everybody. I'm hearing he's playing everybody. I imagine Herbert's playing all game and I got to be honest. This is just as much about the Chargers defense right now as it is about the Chargers offense. So if Herbie goes out and they go back up,

Denver, who, as we know, made one of the worst trades in the history of quarterback trades, has no top five draft pick. There's no reason to tank here. They're playing for sole pride. And I'm looking at this team, chargers-wise, since the buy second against the pass. Second. Last month of football, it's not Denver's D who gave up 51 to Baker. It's the chargers who gave up 10 to Baker, three to Nick Foles, who has a staff.

14 to the Titans and 17 to the surging Miami offense down in Mike McDaniel land. Russ comes off. He throws three picks the other day against the Rams. He's got five picks in his last restarts. The Chargers are plus five and turnover differential. Broncos are negative on the season. Is this the same Broncos defense? That's what you have to ask yourself to wrap up the season.

They've been carrying Sierra's husband the whole season. They've been carrying Sierra's husband, who, oh, by the way, hasn't made a post about her husband since he started saying, let's ride in a little bit of a lower octave. Just point that out. Just pointing that out. They've given up 51, 37, and 34 to the Chiefs twice and the Rams. That's 37 points per game in three out of the last four weeks defensively, people.

Three out of the last four. I just told you what the Chargers have done defensively. I'm taking the Chargers. We're getting under a field goal. I'm almost questioning the line. The line should be four and a half. The line is two and a half. I'm sorry.

Four game win streak versus one in seven in their last eight. I know. It's a divisional dance. I know the rule. Divisional Home Dog plus two and a half. If it goes to three, I'm telling you I'm locking in Chargers minus two and a half. I don't trust anything.

about Denver. I am loving this Chargers defense right now. I could see them sit in Derwin. I could see them resting a couple of front seven starters. If Herbert is a go, which he is at the moment, take the Chargers. We wrap up with a little fan duel.

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It's safe, secure, super easy to use. You can bet on everything from the money line and touchdown scores to over or under yards. And of course, same game parlay. Spread money line totally. You got player props, passing, receiving rushing touchdowns. You can go micro bets. Anything you want. Fandu even lets you combine bets for a chance at a bigger payout with same game parlays

and same game parlay plus. Fandu is now live in Ohio. So make sure to get it on the action with great offers just for you. Now throughout January, don't miss the chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in free bets. When you join Fandual with Fandul, a promo code, Monaco. Make every moment more with Fandul an official sports betting partner of the NFL. I want to wish my boss the best, as he says America's stockbroker, number one voice in all of sports. Colin Coward, happy birthday.

to the man that created the volume sports. Unbelievable network. We're out of here. Packers minus four and a half. Titans plus six and a half. Rams plus six and a half. Steelers. Swallowed two and a half.

45, 34 and 3.8TS, baby. Let's end at least on three and two. Shout to all you listening. Hey, big ups to my guy Matt, producing behind the scenes all season long. gentlemen. We'll see you next time for Wild Car Weekend, baby. The volume.