The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Week 3 Bets: Saints-Packers, Patriots-Jets, Broncos-Dolphins, Falcons-Lions

Episode Date: September 23, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season including Derek Carr's New Orleans Saints traveling to Lambeau Field for a matchup with Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers, Bill Belichick and New England Patriots looking to continue their dominance over Zach Wilson and the New York Jets, Russell Wilson's Denver Broncos taking on Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and the Miami Dolphins, Bijan Robinson's 2-0 Atlanta Falcons looking for a statement win over Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, and more! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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All right. Welcome into another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline Monaco. Alex Monaco joining you. We are live on Am volume sports wherever you get your pods. Chilling in the lab. Got my volume Moneyline Monaco shirt on feeling good. 500 last week, so we got to get better with it. But I absolutely love my picks as we dive into week three.

Just a real quick lay of the land. Just to set the scene, the mood. Week one was all about road covers and unders. Week two, pendulum swings. Road teams drop to 500 against the spread, which is still impressive. Only three unders, though. From week one to week two, we like to think our hypothesis was quarterbacks just didn't play in the preseason, a lot of rust week one.

And do have a fun stat here. First time. First time. Actually, it's been about 15 years, but. Only three times since the 70s. Underdogs outright after two weeks above 500 as we dive in. And food for thought, the NFC dominating undefeated record against the AFC conference as we go in to the lab. We go depth chart.

Then we go dirty dog. Then we go some props. I like all plus money. We wrap up with a Hail Mary Lay. So three, two, one. This is a spread. We're about to get gross with the first pick, ladies and gentlemen. This is buying, you've seen crypto at 60 racks, you've seen it down to 18.

We are buying Bitcoin at 18,000 here. Buying as low as you possibly can in 2023 on the Super Mario coin. And we're going against Goliath. We are going against the media darling, the favorite right now. At quarterback for MVP, we are taking Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos with the plus six and a half on draft kings. Going against Ace Ventura, laces out.

We don't care about heat versus shade. We don't care about road in the southeast region where we know this Denver team is up Everest to some degree here. But I want to talk about this storyline, all right? Broncos are up 18 points. Damn near historic comeback for the commanders. and you have a Dolphins team. Wins a shootout week one,

shocks a lot of people. I was on the wrong side in New England primetime game. But if you're going to sit here and say that the dolphins deserve to be laying damn near seven points after these two humble weeks, you're out of your Tenzeltown mind, Jerry. Now, first thing, first reason we got to like Denver is the number. We are getting an inflated number, people. Six and a half.

Six and a half. What would this number be? Now, and really hear this. This Denver team lost by one, week one, lost by a basket, week two. And really, pending that Hail Mary and Christmas with the crank's two-point conversion miracle almost stole it back. So here we go again. an inflated number based off public perception. Dolphins flying high.

Broncos are cooked, right? Wrong. All right? All that to say, if this Broncos team after two weeks, you're saying yourself, it's the defense, not the offense,

based off last year, really remember, they averaged 16.9 points per game last year. they broke 30 points one time, one time. They've already broken 30 in the first two weeks. It is not the Denver Broncos offense through two weeks. It is the defense. As we talk out, the second reason why I absolutely love this Denver team and this number,

are we really calling this Dolphins Vic Fangio D solid through two weeks? All right, they're sandwiched between the Colts and the car. Cardinals, giving up damn near 26 through two weeks. And here's the thing. I love listening to the Action Network. I love reading their stats. They're in the weeds numbers. They have this thing called Luck Ranking.

All right. You go back to last week, the Patriots, were top two in the worst luck of not delivering when they needed to. Listen to this. The Pats first, second, four, six, seventh, and eleventh drives all in Dolphins territory. They came away with three points. the expected number was 18 based off of the luck rankings. And over half of the Patriots plays positive EPA.

Only five teams did that week two. So I sit here and I go, all right, Stolphin's team playing with house money. Because to me, they beat every trend known to man week one and week two. Two in the Pacific time zone. Dolphins three and six last year on the road. Back to back road games. At Belichick's place, prime time favorite. they bucked all the trends.

But what they didn't do incredibly well, in my opinion, is really show us defensively what they are. And you have a Russell Wilson quarterback, ladies and gentlemen, that has five touchdowns and one interception. Call it what you will. Sierra's husband seems to be back and seems to not be washed. Now, if he threw that Hail Mary, got that two-point conversion, won the game, what would we be saying?

and the line would be four. The line would be four and a half. So I think we're getting two to three points of value. And last thought here, Sean Payton, next to Mikey Tomlin, is the most profitable underdog coach in the last two decades. This is almost winner go home for Denver.

There's a world where they could shock the entire NFL community. But I'm looking at the numbers. I'm watching the games. I am not all in on this. this Miami Dolphins team yet. I think they're getting jocked. They're getting absolutely kudos before they've really done anything.

I'm not saying beating Belichick in New England is nothing. But at the end of the day, I'm a Charger fan, San Diego Charger fan in recovery. Chargers are an abomination right now. They have no identity. They have no idea how to close games. Brandon Staley's lost 13-1 score games. Now as a head coach for the Chargers,

She's barely been there. So you beat two teams, one of which has no idea how to close, and another team that's just not that good. Now you're going against Denver, who I would like to think on a Sean Payton-led team will write some wrongs defensively, and they will hang in there on offense against a lackluster at this moment, Vic Fangio D.

Give me third favorite pick. Broncos plus six and a half. All right. This number is going to be. going to move. I hope when this hits your ears, you lock it in. Because three and a half's a lot different. I absolutely love the Detroit Lions minus three at home against a Falcons team going on the road. Pack your super bad sleepover bags, baby. They got to go play a real grown man game. This is not against a rookie quarterback at home versus a team that has never even played together in

Carolina. This is not against a Pro Bowl running back list. Jordan Love first time. I'm in a dome on the road. Sitch, now he did play the Bears on the road, but all that to say, two home games against two teams, we don't really know what they're going to be. One of them as an over under, actually, excuse me,

both of them had an over under a seven and a half team total wins. But again, let's set the storyline here. Lions, one in one off a overtime L against the fly, fly, Seahawks. And all we're thinking is, this was a team in Detroit that went

on a Thursday night, beat the champs, knocked him off, came home, couldn't get it done. Then you got the Falcons who were down, actually, two-thirds of that game against Green Bed. They were plus nine and a half live at one point, four to one live on the underdog. It was impressive. I don't think this Atlanta team is built to come back, but that's the lay of the land. So the first thought is public perception. This was a line movement game from week one to week two. You got one team off a win, one team awful loss.

I'm looking at the combination of the timing and the hierarchy in the NFC. Let's really step aside to step back in for a second. The NFL is a maturation leap. You slowly work your way up most times. Now, sometimes you'll get one team a year, worse to first, for the most part. It's baby steps, it's gradual. And what does this Lions team do down the same? stretch last year.

Incredible outing. J.G. on an unreal streak of not turn the ball over. But we are getting a one-dimensional falcons team as we get into the second reason here. Going against a Detroit team that ironically, if they embody a Falcon style of play, will win this game. Now, really hear this. Falcons are ran for 170 in the first two weeks.

mazel tough. It's great. It's incredible. Bejohn's a stud. Make a case he's already a top five back here by the end of the season. But the thrown for 176, 29th. Did you stump the Schwab know that the Detroit D has only allowed 172 through two weeks? Did you know that this Falcons team had the luxury of going against first time starting quarterbacks? You go against. You go against, love, you go against young. Now you got to go against a guy that's made it all the way to the dance. Now you got to go against a guy that doesn't turn the ball over. And call what you will is, this Detroit D is trash, this Detroit D isn't going to get done.

Ritter faced 45% of pass rushing of pressure rates in the pocket last week against the Packers. Desmond Ritter is two gentlemen. Small Costco sample, but on the road and at home. He's undefeated at all. home, he's winless on the road. He's two, he's double digit less points per game on the road than at home.

And you have to look at it like this. Thalcons are plus two and turnover differential. Lions are minus three. If the Lions can do what they do well, which is obviously move the football, Jared Goff plays fundamentally soundball, doesn't turn the rock over. Now, I'm not saying this Falcons D isn't new and improved. A couple of key pieces. Terrell's a dog at Corner, Bud Dupree, Kaleas, they got some new pieces.

But at the end of the day, Fort Tugs one mistake with Montgomery off a two-tutty-70 per start. This team is fundamentally sound. So you have a combination of team off and overtime loss. And this is just public perception versus a team that came back. Everyone thinks the stockings team is for real.

It's a lot easier to win at home against inexperienced quarterbacks then going on the road against an experience one. I think we're getting a great number and a great purchase of a great timing of locking that in. Lions are going to win in a couple of ways. They could beat you in a shootout. They could beat you 21, 20 as they showed week one. I don't think this Falcons team is built for a good old, let's both put up 30 and hope we outscore them.

It ain't going to happen. They're fortunate to come from behind against a Green Bay team that, again, is still developing their identity. So Lions team knows exactly who they are. Got to go against far and away the best offensive line they've gone against in the first three weeks. So how do they get a fair when JG's got time to cook? Give me the Lions minus three. If it moves a three and a half, I still co-signed, but lock it in on draft Kings right now. And my number one play.

And this could be death taxes and Bill Belly, Darth Vader owns the Jets or not. All I have to say is Zach Wilson cannot be Darth Vader. Zach Wilson is winless against Bill Belichick and the numbers are gross. Two tutty-seven picks. He's got a passer rating of 50.6 off a three interception game against Dallas where he goes 12 for 27. Now, call what you will is Patriots D is not as bad as the numbers show you. Okay, they've given up 199 passing defense against the Eagles and a top four past E from last year, Miami.

You have to say to yourself this. Hungry dogs run faster in this game. The Jets community, I live in New York, I'll say it every single time. I bring up a New York team. The vibes are Spacoli low, man. Nobody believes in Zach Wilson. If you are listening to sauce, to Garrett, it's acting. It's acting.

You're going to bail on your quarterback in September. You just can't. New England is. has absolutely owned the New York Jets. Five and O against them in their last five. O'clocking them by 96. Five straight covers, by the way. They've won 10,

excuse me, 14 games in a row, in a row. And you take out overtime, it's 19 games in a row. She has a desperate Patriots team that is 0 and 2 and absolutely has to

win. We know about Belichick never going under six wins since 2000 on. They're winning this game. It's a little scary that the books are hanging in at two and a half and keeping it there. I just do not know how you sit here. Now, looking at the numbers last year, bringing them into this year, money line favorites, minus 142 or less, which is prevalent here. New England was six and one straight up. And you can make a case that this Patriots team can be crafty. and can win in a number of ways. Let's not forget this was a three to three defensive chess match last year, and they won on a punt return.

So you're sitting here, you factor in all this, and desperation is prevalent. Head-to-head psychological warfare. Patriots absolutely own them. Zach Wilson's minus 2.10 to throw a pick. He's got seven picks in four games against Bill winless. Did you see the praise Christian Gonzalez got from Tyreek Hill? I mean, the Patriots, and remember the dumb luck rankings I said earlier,

team should have beaten the dolphins and didn't. What would the number be if they did beat Miami? Four, four and a half. I think we're getting a great number. And we're getting a team that absolutely has to win this game. If the Patriots start out 0 and 3, it's going to be scary hours. I'm fascinated. I might even tune in the ball.

Boston Radio just to see what the hell they say. They're not losing to the Jets. Lock this in is my favorite bet against the spread on the slate. Football is back. No more preseason games. No more combined team practices.

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104 and 100 on the ground. One of those was against Eric Henry, the king. And they've only given up 181 and 139 passing. So the defense has given up 160 passing, 102 rushing, and his top 10. on offense and overall, baby, you can drive my CA double R Saints O. So you have a top four defense picking up where they left off. This is my pick to win the South. This is one of my favorite over team total wins of nine and a half.

Look, this defense is real. Jordan Love had the luxury of going against one of the worst historic D's in the history of the Chicago Bears who just had to watch their defense. defensive coordinator resign for reasons unknown yet. So not given respect to Jordan Love, but you go against a lowly bears team that's getting dismantled, that's locker rooms already broken, fields can't even answer press conference questions correctly, and you have, and you have a Saints team that is jellin, vibing, feeling sensational, and his top four in total yards given up defensively

to start the campaign. There's not much to not like about New Orleans. Now, I'm sick because I had a minus three Monday night. They dominated Bryce Young. I'm starting to about get ready to write a Mark Twain letter to the NFL about these backdoor BS pre-vent defense last possessions because they're costing a shekel. But that was sunup to sundown saints domination on defense. So Aaron Jones still banged up.

Christian Watkins still banged up. And last and at least here, you can also say this. A first time, Favre passing the baton to Rogers, passing the baton to Love, start on the road is actually less stakes, less pressure than coming home where everyone's on pins and needles and everyone's freaking out. How is Jordan Love going to do at home against a real defense

that is very balanced? I mean, Dennis Allen is not known for offense, not known for play calling, not known for that side of the football. He is absolutely impressing through two weeks. And this is an NFC South that is very competitive. But, you know, Atlanta's D was bottom two in almost every category last year. And the Bears were the worst D in the league. So not not giving credit to Jordan Love. Great start.

I mean, come on. Six tugs, no interception. It's phenomenal. He's going to throw a pick in this game. There's going to be pressure, grown man pressure on him. Cam Jordan to Mario Davis. And this secondary, Honey Badger, Marshawn Lattimore, again, I said this before the season started, underrated top five cover corner in the league.

Give me the Saints, 30 dog on the road. Let me help out the NFC North. Few props here. I absolutely love. Josh Jacobs is how one of the worst starts I've ever seen. One of the worst starts. Take them over 71 and a half. at a minus 1.10 juice here, rushing yards.

Do you realize Pittsburgh's D's the worst run D in the league? This is a slam dunk. They're going to have to establish the run. They abandoned it in Buffalo. Jimmy G's at home going to bring a balanced, structured, level-headed approach. That goes hand in hand with running the rot. It's almost fascinating. He had 48 and negative two yards in his first two weeks.

It's a guy that led all scrimmage yards for running backs last year. perfect by low spot. Steelers, 193 rush yards per game. Christian McCaffrey still stiff arm in jugulars across the yellow bridge. Josh Jacobs and I got to be honest, kind of like him over 100 plus at great value, but I co-signed on 71.5. Chargers defense to worst past league, past D in the league, giving up 333. I wanted to fade him.

I really did. I don't have the heart. This is when the Chargers went. But Justin Jefferson is off 150 and 159. start the campaign. Just sick with it numbers. You're getting plus 170 for him to go over 125 receiving yards. He's doing that. He's probably scoring.

I wouldn't tell you to lay minus 160. But law of averages is he hasn't gotten in the end zone yet. He fumbled a rock at the one on national television. He's probably going to get in the end zone. This is going to be a shootout. It's going to be an unbelievably offense versus offense score and fantasy numbers galore type game. Capitalize on it.

I also like Herbie at plus 125 over 300. yards off a 300-yard game against a Titans team on the row that's not easy to throw against. Now, credit to Brian Flores, past team much improved, but you cannot scheme the way they have in the first two weeks against Herbert. If there is no Echler again, they're going to be so pass happy and that's part of the rationale here. He's had 23 games already over 300 plus in his career. He's off a 41 pass attempt game.

And the script without Echler, 13 rushes for Joshua Kelly. they don't trust him yet to be an all-encompassing Belcow back if Ecklers not out there. They're just going to have to keep up with the Vikings offense. Chargers, this game's going over. This game's going to be, again, just shockful of points. Capitalize on it. JJ and Herbert, great players make great scores. I'm going to go Desmond Ritter here.

Call what you will. I'm getting plus 280 for 25 rushing yards. Plus 280. Now, I did say that the Lions run D has been solid. But Ritter against the Packers had 10 carries for 39 yards. Now we know about Ritter stats on the road versus home. All that to say, this guy cannot pass. I mean, Kyle Pitts is wasting his talent.

Wasting his talent. I really like the value baby peanuts on Ritter going over this number. And the Hail Mary Lay, let me pull it up to make sure I get the numbers. correctly. I can't believe I'm doing this. I'm going to take the Broncos six and a half, the Lions minus three, the Patriots on the money line,

and I'm going to go Chargers. And it's plus 1067. Over 10 to 1. Look, everything in my gambling gut says go Vikings. Why is it a one point spread at home in Minnesota where

it's a real home field advantage? Look, they got rumors right now of this man going to New York, Kirk Nahn prime times. Not even Kirk's fault through the first two weeks. I just can't get over that the Chargers start 0 and 3. Vikings, if I had to swing one way in a pick-em game, eyes closed, I got to fade him. I'm probably looking at this emotionally incorrect because the Chargers are my team. I got to throw them in here.

It's a pick-em game. Didn't want to tell you that was one of my favorite plays because it isn't, but I want to throw them in what we call the Doug Flutty Hail Mary. That's it. That's the show. We are out of here. Broncos, cover the six and a half. Watch them shock the world.

Do not throw the dolphins in a teaser. Thank me later. I'm going to go Lions minus three. I love the number. Grab it at three if you can. And we're going Bill Belichick versus Zach Wilson. I'm sorry. Guys,

guys just cannot play against the Patriots. Can't do it. I'm going to take the Saints as the dirty dog. I got some fun props on the way out. Loving Josh Jacobs of a timing purchase. JJ continues the heater. Herbert goes for Hail Mary numbers. And Ritter gets crafty with it.

Plus 280, 25 plus Hail Mary Lay. Broncos six and a half. Lions Miastry. Patriots Money Line Chargers Money Line. Pace plus 1067. Hey, we got a win. Throwing up more picks. Six pack of picks on Money Line, Monaco.

Got a couple viral videos. I'm in right now on the gram. So follow me there. Moneyline, Monaco, appreciate you. We are out of here. Don't forget to hug your mothers. All right, I'm bringing in my guy, Paul, here, and I'm going to have to start out with talking out that I'm officially,

officially taking my chargers. And we got a good old bet off here. Paul, you're probably furious with me, my man. I got to do what I got to do. One team wants their coach gone. one team wants their quarterback on, I feel like vibes are low and mini, man. Are you feeling like I'm walking into an emotional trap? Well, first off, we don't want Kirk gone.

We do not want Kirk gone. It's just a matter of, you know, blowing up the team. No, I think you're probably right. Like, I'm picking the Vikings. It's the same way you're picking the Chargers. I'm emotionally invested in Minnesota. So I always lean. It's a little biased, but I always lean that way.

at home, like you said, the Vikings have the most wins at home, I believe, over the past like 10 years or something. There's some statistic that just came out about that. Like, their home field advantage is real and it's really good in Minnesota. But I like Minnesota just a little bit more because they got that

home field factor. Chargers are going to score a lot on them, though, because we can't stop a nosebleed. Yeah, I mean, maybe I should have gone over 54. It's a lot of points. You know, Herbert hasn't thrown, he hasn't thrown a pick yet. I mean, look, I could be walking right into it. It's such a gross game, but,

you know, I just, I don't know what to make a Minnesota, man. I really don't. I could be way wrong. Either way. Is Echler back? Is Echler officially back yet? He's, he's very much questionable at the moment. Very much questionable. That's a big, big swing for me, having Echler and your offense versus not. It's huge. Now, Of all of my picks, which one did you like? Which one did you be like, oh, man, Monica is a sucker? I actually liked most of your picks here. The Saints at Green Bay, I did think, was on the money line, was an interesting one.

Because that's just first game, Green Bay has looked good. I didn't think New Orleans looked good in either of their games to start the year. So that was one. I know that was your dog. so I was a little, a little hesitant there. Green Bay, they could, they could win that game without question, but I don't know, man, there's something, there's something to say about going against two, you know, again,

Atlanta's team is much improved, but I know you, I know your mistake. I know your mistake. Uh-oh. Broncos plus, the Broncos stink. They are bad, dude. They're bad. They are bad.

They are not as bad as we think, man. I mean, let's remind ourselves, Vegas had them at eight and a half wins. Dude, there are a lot of respectable people in the game on the Broncos. This is a number play. This is gross. I don't love it. But six and a half is a lot of points. A lot of points is.

Vic Fangio's deed is not good right now, my man. And again, really hear that. I trust them more than Denver. I trust them on Denver's offense. But Denver's offense is actually not, I mean, not a great showing week one. But commanders were a top 10 defense last year. So, I mean, to go a 30 piece against him, put up 21 the first half, let's not forget that they don't have Nathaniel Hackett. This is where the coaching comes in.

This is where psychological warfare is prevalent. Sean Payton's getting dogged. He's getting dragged. He's getting tweeted about good. going back to the the, the, the, the frat activities. And Mike McDaniel is getting shocked.

I mean, this is the perfect by low, sell high spot. I mean, this is where old Alex would have never done this. I would have never done this. I would have never done this in the past. I have to do it.

I have a weird feeling. It's a sharp play. Yeah. I don't, I don't know. I see Sean Payton going up to the podium, blaming everyone. he's mad about breaking the huddle.

There's so many issues in Denver that stem beyond just what's on the field. I don't even know that team likes each other. And you talked about the second half, I pulled it up after Wilson's fumble to close out the first half, three punts and interception and two field goals. Like this offense, they were great in the beginning. But they died really quickly.

And when they die, it's bad. Miami can score with anyone in the league. They can score faster than anyone. I can see Miami getting a few. stops to start the game, punch it in the end zone. Next thing you know, it's a double-digit lead in the first half. I just don't see it that way, man.

I mean, I, again, I think we're forgetting that they almost came back after that. Hail Mary, if they, they should have got a flag. Look, this is just, this is just seesawing through week to week, a Dolphins team that could not have started better. they should have went one and one on that road trip. I'm telling you, they haven't even had a chance to go. Well, this is what I'll say. Denver, and I'm looking at,

and I don't know if you're a fan of some of the Action Network work, the luck ranking thing to me is real. That shows you that that Pat's team on that Sunday night, I mean, six drives in Dolphins territory, you get three points. That game was not a blowout. That game was right there for the Patriots to steal. Right there. I do believe in the luck statistic.

Giants were number one in that last year. 25 and a half points per game they gave up. Look, this game could very well be 2724. I mean, I just don't think the Broncos are poorly coached. And I think we're forgetting, we're just going last year to this year and forgetting that they don't have Nathaniel. You're forgetting that they're a bad team, Monica. Listen, I'm not saying they're winning the game, the cover in the number. Can I ask you one question before we get out of here?

Of course. So this week, we have three games with double-digit spreads. And I mean, there's a lot of big spreads too. Jacksonville, nine-point favorites against Houston, Baltimore, minus eight against the Colts. There are some really high numbers. I know you're high on San Francisco, minus 10 and a half right now before Thursday night football. for the chiefs and the bears and the Cardinals and Cowboys, those are both 12 and a half point spreads.

When you approach being a great gambler as you are, when you approach numbers that high, do you automatically ignore them? Or are you looking at that saying like, okay, yeah, Cardinals stink, the bear stink. I'm going with the dynamic offenses here. It's a good question. I mean, there's a lot to consider when you're looking at 12.5 point lines.

I mean, Arizona is 2 and 0 against the spread. Let's start there. And the Cowboys could not have gotten off to a better starting. They've given up, what, five points and two, yeah, five points in two weeks. Or like something, excuse me, five points, yeah, zero points, ten points, five points per game to start the season. Could not start better. I don't know, man. I mean, on the road, I would just, I go, to answer the question, I go situation by situation.

So Dallas is at the Cardinals and the Bears are at the chiefs. Yeah, I mean, this Chief's offense looks, I mean, do I dare say anemic? I mean, what the hell is going on? They need to make a trade for a wide receiver. This team is not going anywhere, anywhere with this offensive weapons right now. I know it's a bit of a hot take only two weeks. But dude, I mean, the Jackson won that game. I was lucky, very lucky to cover.

But situationally, this Bears team, I mean, it's going one or two ways. baseball. This game, I mean, they lose their DC. They got fields not knowing how to answer Baker Mayfield Press Conference Cupcake questions. He's throwing his coaches under the bus wall. Peanut FBI Tillman is a lot. I mean, Ray, there's so much off the field for Chicago right now. It goes one to two ways. They band together like brothers and absolutely cover this number or they lose 35 to 10. I don't. I don't, I don't see it. I see it one of two ways. I don't know.

I think they're going to get mauled. They could get mauled. They could get mauled. I mean, here's the thing. Justin Fields is not reading his progressions. Justin Fields looks like he's got wide receivers. I mean, Cole Komet is undercutting a DJ more route. I mean, I'm watching the film.

I'm watching Orlovsky, among other breakdown. I don't even know if they know their offensive tempo yet. I don't even know if they've jelled. Does anyone watching film? I don't know. I don't know. All I know is that that Chiefs. defense won that game for them last week.

And if that chief, same chief's defense shows up at Arrowhead, yeah, it is going to be a routing. If I were to, this is a, it's a bit, it's a bit gross. But if I were to pick one to cover, I'd probably go Arizona. I mean, Arizona. Really? Okay. I look.

Dobbs, you know, I mean, there's something to say about like a certified experiment. It's a weird situation going on in Arizona. where they have a franchise quarterback that just paid, but he's hurt. I mean, the disrespect this locker room's getting, well, all the while,

all they're doing is almost beating the Giants outright. And week one, competitive as well. I mean, 12 and a half is a lot. I mean, these are the games where the Cowboys could bury you early. But,

you know, I got an inkling. And again, you know, you're getting 12 and a half at home. versus getting 12 and a half on the road. I mean, just conventional wisdom,

you would take the home team with the 12 and a half, not the road team. I actually disagree with you in terms of picking. And I'm happy you brought that up because I was going to put you on the spot and say which one would you pick. I look at Dallas as arguably the best team in football right now. And after watching the second half of the Cardinals and Giants, I can see Dallas going in there and just destroying that offensive line.

what, they've won 70 to 10 in both their games combined this year. 12 and a half. I look at that. I get suckered into these numbers when there's a really good team playing a really bad team. I can't help myself. So I like Dallas a little bit more, but you would avoid both of them. I avoid both of them. Got it.

I would. I mean, I would. Or are you being reeled in? I mean, no. that you know, I like those three team 10, those three team 10 point teasers throw both of these puppies under two and a half. I like that at an add a third cupcake. Do I dare say the Niners tonight sit on that ticket? Just need the Cowboys and the Chiefs. I do co-sign on that. I don't know, man, double digit spreads. Yeah, I'll probably, I'll probably pass. I'll probably put on both of those. But I mean, just vibes are, you know, Cardinals got to feel like they gave one away. I'll be it.

Oh, if I were a Cardinals fan, that was a huge loss. That's a Caleb Williams loss right there. I just, is Kyler Murray a pack of Skittles? What's going on? Why is this man not? I'm sitting back as a Viking fan. I'm like, ah, we lose the charges. That Cardinal one could become pretty important for us too.

Yeah, but I think, I think this Cardinals team is not as bad as we think. I think this Bears team may have a locker room problem. the difference here. Yeah, a big difference. Big difference. Yeah, man. All right, dude.

Well, appreciate you coming on, talking some shot. Appreciate everyone listening. We are out of here. Week three, got to get, ideally a three and one here

on these four ATSs. For Paul, myself, it's the Money Line Monaco show. We will see you next week. Enjoy week three. The volume.