The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Week 4 Bets: Dolphins-Bills, Patriots-Cowboys, Ravens-Browns, Bengals-Titans

Episode Date: October 1, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season including Tua Tagovailoa's Miami Dolphins taking on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Cleveland for an AFC North matchup with Deshaun Watson and the Browns, Joe Burrow leading the Cincinnati Bengals against Derrick Henry's Tennessee Titans, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys hosting Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, and much more! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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All right. Welcome into another episode of Sports. Gambling with Moneyline, Monaco, Alex Monaco, fired up to be with you, volume sports, live on AMP, wherever you get your pods. Don't forget, follow, subscribe, rate, review goes a long way. This is going to be a riveting week four slate. I got your depth chart picks. We went two and one on them against the spread last week.

Dog, don't get me started on the dirty dog. I had Saints Money Line. talk about a Scotty Van Badbeat, Hail Mary, Parlay, missed by a game again. I got some fun props as well, but look, we have some very fascinating matchups, going to have to talk bills and the fence,

going to have to talk divisional rivalry, little Browns, Ravens, got Cowboys Patriots as well, some best props for that game. But let's dive in, roll up the sleeves, pour the coffee, get ready.

We are wrapping up September football here. and I'm going in on my third favorite pick of the slate. And I am going against what some would say is conventional wisdom. Sharp's already on the other side. Look, let me remind you, I've been money on these primetime games. I've faded and rocked on the favorite side a few times, and it's worked out well. So just hear me out.

First play, we are going to Nashville, where they may not even deserve a new stadium. out piss or the Titans look out the gate. One of the worst offenses known to mankind. I will fade them. I don't care about Mike Frable as a dog. I don't care about what Derek Henry has not done. And he's turning a quarter.

Did you know Derek Henry? I found this out as it broken a tackle this season. No one. Is there a chance that the Game of Thrones King is cooked, Sub in the Aaron Rogers cameo on the last season, that baby. It's over. Tanna Hill looks like he should be coaching Trent Dillfer High School football. Let me go from red back to a normal color and get in.

The Titans against the Browns last week. Let me just read the stats to you. Six first downs. I could do that blindfolded in Madden. Two for 12 on third down. They did not break 100 yards on offense. 94 total yards. King Henry, your king, 26 total yards in the Titans rushing category.

Derek Henry through three weeks, ladies and gentlemen, has 63 yards, 80 yards and 20 yards. I said this before the season in the AFC South episode, I do not like. this team. They are PFF ranked 30. Second or last, dead last. An offensive line overall cumulative grades by one of the most vetted sources in the game, in the weeds of ranking players out their position.

You, my friends, are rocking with me against the worst offensive line in the National Football League. Ryan Tannahill is worse than babysitting Desmond Ritter on the playground of not being allowed to make adult throws. He's got one touchdown in three weeks. In three weeks. We've seen this movie before.

We've seen this game before. 20 to 16 last year, Bengals controlled the pace. Bengals controlled the game. And might I say, a much better, much more competitive in the trenches Titans team last year to this year. D. Henry didn't do anything against this Bengals team. Last year as well, 17 carries 38 yards. This is a bottom 10 and rushing

team. Bottom 10. This has to be one of the number one reasons why you're taking the two and a half, swalling it, and going with the Bengals who day with me. Bottom 10 and rushing. Bottom three in passing. It's the Bears. It's the Jets. And it's Ryan Tanil.

He'll get him off a starting roster. It's over. It's over. I hate. I hate watching the Titans offense. I'd rather read the Webster's dictionary. There's a reason I told you, DeAndre Hopkins at 40, four and a half receiving touchdown set by the books before the season was sketch.

It's because they're in the worst bottom three ranked passing offense from last year. And it's even worse this year. 15 points a game through three wits. Look, Bengals have an 11th ranked pass. defense, okay? The Rams were top five in overall yards coming into that game, believe it or not, top five in passing yards to start that game. Held the Rams to 16 points.

Held Maddie Stout to 54 completion percentage with two interceptions. You're going to tell me the number one thing that this baby back offense can even do is going to be debunked by a very serviceable pass rush. Might I say this? Titans have a bottom five pass defense. Herbert. Scourced them. Even Deshawn, who I'll get to and break down and be very negative on as well.

Who's had 255 completion percentage games looked good against his Titans defense. Derek Carr barely broke 220 and two of his other three weeks through for over 300 against him. I'm telling you. I'm telling you. I'm telling you. Back the numbers fade this offense at all costs. Forget about them off an embarrassing loss. They're going to have many.

embarrassing losses this season. Okay? I don't even want to spend any more time saying the words Tennessee Titans this year unless Will Levis gets a sample of a shot. Trust Joe Burrow. Number one reason here. Trust Joe Burrow. It's happened before it's happening again.

Owen to start last year, they won 12 of their last 14 games. Remember, they didn't have a whole 17 games. 12 of their last 14. They covered eight in a row down the stretch. we're getting two and a half, two and a half. By I say this, you don't like the two and a half. Take the money line minus 135.

This is a team 11 and three playing by a money line favorite of minus 135 or shorter. 11 and three. Nine and five covering on that two and a half number as well last year or more as favorites. Titans. Last thing I'll say, two and six. six in this exact same underdog spot last season. Two and six, which is an underdog of plus one,

14 or more. Two and six straight up. Only one of their dog, of their dog games nine times. Three times they won those games. So we say yes, they're a magical cover. Got to get to trust the number.

Dude, they can't move the football. They cannot stop the pass. Is this going to be a reminder? And I said this on. Tuesday, you can get the Bengals at a coin flip, even money or now it might be minus 105 on Draft Kings to make the playoffs. Stop sleeping on a guy that we otherwise believe is the second best quarterback in the league. Tana Hill, go play with your kids. It's over. Second favorite bat. Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't care what happened last week. Put it in the trash can.

a guy who looks like he's a fullback who looks like he should be a 58 speed in Madden and I'm wrong. I'm not trying to dog him. Ran a kick return back on a busted coverage in that Texans Jags game last week. Put it in the garbage. It was a fluke, fluke game and it will not happen again. Jags team has been flat out unlucky. They lose a game by 20 where they had over 400 yards of offense.

They lose a game by 20 where they had more pass yards, more rush yard weren't sacked at all. I capped. It was my favorite bet last week. Lions, Falcons like a mench. All right. Theme of the week, Yom Kippur, baby,

like a mench. I nailed it to a T. I said the lions are going to play Atlanta Falcons football. They're going to establish a run early. They're going to run it down your throats. And they're not going to turn the ball over. What happened to my exact

in vision of a game. To a T. This is a one-dimensional Falcons team. Here's my Calhurt analogy. This is a sixth grade camp game. Do you remember in sixth grade camp? Whether you wanted to or not,

you had to go away for a week. Leave your family. I missed. Game seven of D-Backs Yankees. I don't want to talk about it. Yes, I was betting back then. Don't worry about it. I missed.

A wake of life, a wake of sports. And it was in a camp called Oak. They call it Oak is a joke. All I'm saying is this is the sixth grade camp game for Desmond Redder on campus. Talk about a high school cafeteria mindset in this NFL all day long. This is that game. The Jacks go to London every single Harry Kane year. Okay?

They played in Tottenham. They played in Wembley. They played all over the place since 24. They're off a loss last year against the Broncos. They have not lost two games in a row in London since 2014. Really hear that because you might not think that's a trend till I couple it with baby back Ritter on the road stats. You're going to be surely mistaken if you want to fade me in this game.

Okay. Jacks have been very unlucky. Talked about last week outgaining in every sense of the word the Texas. Did not play three phases of football. Yes, that matters. let me remind you they held a team that put the beat down on the Chicago Bears last week. So bad the game was over by halftime. We're doing Taylor Swift memes and tweets because the game was so uncompetitive.

This Jags team held Patty Mahomes, Sir Patrick to 17 points, had a turnover. No one broke 70 on the ground. This Jags team held Kelsey Trav. Taylor Swift's boyfriend to four for 26. So this Jags team, whose top seven, by the way, in run defense, top seven, is going to debunk what the Falcons do best. And the Falcons are wasting Kyle Pitts talent like a dude in an ensemble cast who should have his own series.

It is so criminally infuriating. Ritter on the road. Pack your sleeping bags. Go to London. Look, you're going to have to bank on a young Falcons team, hoping that a veteran like Kaleas Campbell can tell these dudes to be. in bed, in London town at an appropriate hour. There's so many external factors we have no idea about when it comes to capping this game.

You are backing in this game, a team that is in London every year. This is their second home. This is the Jags second home. Did you see Ritter's line against the Lions? Seven sacks. Seven sacks. This is a Jags front seven that is pesky. You don't want to believe Josh Allen, the other.

Josh Allen is a top 10 rusher of the quarterback he is. Ritter on a 55 completion percentage game. No tugs. Barely broke 200 yards. Did you see it? Because I saw it. Without contacts, I missed nothing with the stigmatism. Nothing would be John Robinson could not run the football.

10 for 33. You see what the Falcons are when they cannot move the ball on the ground. They are slow as molasses. Desmond Ritter, before the. season started. Put up 25 points on at on at home 13 and a half on the road. It is his kryptonite. This is varsity versus jv and I know for a fact Trevor Lawrence off a loss is a guy you want to back. Remember last year, tale of two jags. Jacks did not lose back to back games November on. So this team was embarrassed by a lower totem pole AFC.F.C.

South team. They were humbled. They didn't do the little things. Yes, you can make the case. The Falcons are looking awful last week coming in. You want to buy low on that three. It's a low enough number for me to swallow. I love the Jaguars. Trust the veteran team in this spot. Trust the Action Network luck rankings as well.

And understand that Ritter on the road with a sleeping bag, his first sixth grade camp trip ever across the pond. He's going to be severely humble. This game probably goes under as well. Ain't a shootout for a second. I've been waiting all show. All show. I'm starting a rivalry that nobody cares about

with Miami Dolphins fans. These dudes are coming at me like their sharks, not dolphins. Everybody likes dolphins. Everyone wants to swim with them. Everyone wants to take pictures. with him. Nah, I already dislike the fan base who's now Snickers hungry because Dame Times in

Milwaukee, baby. How about that Matt Damon apples? But here's the reality. This is the ultimate trap spot. This is where the public gets slaughtered. This is where you, and I don't even have to

look, and I know, I've been in the game too long trying to get half my bar mites from my. money back. I've been in this game too long. The public will be all over the dolphins. These sharps will be all over the bills. I've been on a lot of public sides on this show already to start the season. This is the sharp side.

Let's roll up the sleeves. First of all, Dan Marino, who is not a touchy-feely guy who probably hasn't hugged another adult man since he wrapped a commercial. If you've seen the video, if you haven't, do yourself a solid type in Danny Marino commercial. This man's hugging to a, hugging to a. I mean, look, you beat a team that played worse D than the Colorado Buffalo's date against the Oregon Pack 12 docks over the weekend.

All right. Mazel tov, 70 points, 700 yards, a first of many, a first of this, a first of that. I'm not taking anything away from this Dolphins team. I'm not telling you. and if you go back, go pull up the receipts. I said this team's making the playoffs. I said this team's one of my three or four favorite teams over that key number of nine half total wins.

I have them in the playoffs. I already am looking good on a futures bet with the Dolphins. Did not have them winning the division. I had the team that is hosting tables and ladders and chairs. Bubba Ray Dudley and the boys in the parking lot were going to pile drive some SoCal soft South East Dolphins fans that simply do not know how to act. Race fans know how to act. Heat fans know how to act.

I'm looking. Panthers teams know how to act. Fans are how to act. This Dolphins community is going ballistic, going out of control. Might I remind you what Chua is against the bills? Everything he is against Bill, no S. Belichick is. the complete Costanza opposite from what he is against the bills.

He is one and four, one and four against Buffalo in his career. Four tugs, four picks, Josh Allen, Tim, the toolman Josh Allen. Who is he against the Miami Dolphins in his career? Been here longer. Stop sleeping on my guy. Eight and two against the fins of. Laces out, Dan, Miami cannot say a bad word about them or their fan-based jumps on you. All right.

She have a historic win. Stick a step back, take a step for it. Historic win. Everybody and their mothers on the Miami Dolphs. It's going to be Dolphins in the Super Bowl. Da-da-da-da-da-da. Tu-da-da-a-a-to-a-over-Dissantis. I mean, this place is ballistic.

Florida's one-of-one. I digress. You have to really take your... your emotions as much as I'm not to start this sermon. Out. Okay. Really look at this. Buffalo at home, two of the last three seasons has lost one time at home.

One game, one time. This is a Bill's team that lost three games last year by eight total games combined. Combined. Seven and one in two of their last three. years. A San Diego kid can dream of that kind of home field advantage. You have two elements. A dominant team at home. A dominant team at home historically, yes, last year's team is not this year's.

It's fair. It's fine. But if we're going off of trends or stats or how teams have fared in division in the past, if you're going to sit here and say two averse the bills and two of versus the bills and two of us the pads, they both don't matter. I think you're kidding yourself in this spot. And what could this game be stylistically? If this is 3431, like the wild car round last year,

where Josh Allen threw for three tuddies and over 350 plus yards, they ain't going to beat them in a boat race. This will be a rare boat race that this Miami offense loses. You go back two games ago. Josh Allen, four touchdowns, over 300 yards, didn't turn the ball of a 32 piece on the Dolphins. Here's the big discrepancy in this game. We're just talking about the offense.

I've yet to hear any criticism, not an ounce of lick. Vic Fangio has not shown up on the defensive side of the ball. Go look at the numbers. you're making a case for best offense versus best defense in their place. I'm taking defense eight out of ten. 550 yards of offense for Miami. Guess who's top two in yards allowed in this league through three weeks? Bill's Mafia, giving up 253.

Oh, doesn't matter. They're going to throw the ball over. No, they're not. The bills are giving up 142 passing yards. in three games. Are we neglecting? Because we're so go-go-gaga

over this Miami offense that Buffalo has subtly, not so subtly put up 37 and 38 points in the last two weeks. They beat the breaks off of teams. Beat the breaks. The bill's defense and their offense wins this game.

Say it with me. The bills can go tit for tat, score for score with Miami. Fick Fangio's defense cannot hold a candle to the bills. Sean McDermott D. I mean, go back and look how this Bill's D has done in the first three weeks versus Miami. Did the Miami D sack Sam Howell nine times last week make Sam Howell turn the ball over four times last week? No. No, they did not.

This is a team allowing the second, getting the second most sacks, Bill's D, allowing huge, huge, third fewest yards after the catch. Third fewest. So all this yak, all this YAC, forget about it, Jerry. And I got this from Action Network. Tua has only been pressured on eight drawbacks in the first three weeks of football. Dude's got a white jersey, not dirty. It ain't happening.

It ain't pissed off, angry, and now you're snubbing them. Give a bulletin board material. Give a top three defense, a number one team in the AFC and point differential last year, bulletin board material. I dare you. So you do what you want. Third rank passing D versus the top. 20th. Second and yards giving up versus bottom 10. All day, all day. Bills give up 11.7 through three weeks. Miami gives up over double.

33.7. No one wants to even discuss. This is a three-phase game. Very last thing, very last thing. Bills are plus four and third in turnover differential. So now you can't go against a lack of personnel in New England. They just don't have it. You cannot go against a poorly coached Chargers team. They just don't have it. And you cannot go against a team. They's literally clinging to anything they can.

Freethball in Denver. Thank God I took them on the under of eight and a half wins. I'm telling you, say, defensive game won by Buffalo. When two turns a ball over, come back to the kid in the pink shirt. All right. I'm plugging the Jewish Italian schnaz. mine and we're going dirty dog. I've been pretty damn close on these dirty dogs and we're getting

gross with it. This ain't fun. I implore you on draft kings. I beg of you. Take the points. Do not rock with me on the money line. I am going out to castaway seat by my Tom Hanks South. I ain't no Wilson to save me. I am taking Baltimore Ravens on the road off a disgusting. I'd rather fast in each of your mom's cooking game against who? Gardner meant you. Plus 1.30.30 dog of the week. Let's dive in. You want to back Baltimore off a loss.

You want to back Baltimore as an underdog. This is the ultimate back to coach, back the quarterback, back the scheme spot. Because you can all day long sit here and tell me Cleveland Brown's defense is going to win this game. They've been smothering. The safest bet in this game is under 40 and a half. This is not breaking 41 points. No chance. No how.

Remind yourself, who is the worst coach in this division? Say it out loud. Stefansky. Okay? Who is the better quarterback in this game? Say it with me. Lamar Jackson. Who is the better team when it's all said and done?

The Baltimore Ravens. So here we go. I got to do this. I got to do this. Who have the Browns beat? Who have the Browns beat? They beat a Joe Burrow banged up. They beat Joe Burrow on a peg on a Johnny Depp,

Pirates of the Caribbean wooden path. Mazel tough. You dominated the Bengals like you always do. I took the bait. I thought they were going to be a new version of the Browns. No. In the division, this division, got to remind you,

everyone went three and three last year, straight up. Everyone beats up on each other in this division. I'll say for the 19th time, like the Grancowski's beat up on each other for the last chicken tender at the dinner table. But the Steelers beat them and that was embarrassing. The Steelers' offense had 14 points. The Steelers,

the Steelers defense at 14 points. Steelers offense at 12. They scored more than the offense. That is your Browns. this is a Nick Chubb-liss Browns team now. Okay? Ravens are top 10 in yards against. To everything you're going to tell me,

Brown's D-wise, top 10 in yards against. Giving up only 200 in passing. That's 11th. That's 11th in the league and a top-eight run D. So yes, Browns are at the top of every statistical category to debunk that the Ravens are right there with them. They're not. They're not.

But this Brown's team has not gone against. a serviceable run game yet. And this is what it's going to be. It's a banged up Ravens team. Yes, I know this. But they have a top five run game. And the Browns just won a game, beat the brakes off the Titans, really hear this, with a 78-yard rush outing.

This dude Ford, this signing a hunt, you cannot replace greatness. Yes, they have a top five offensive line. but you have to stick to the fundamentals and rock with me in this game. The Browns, believe it or not, are minus five in turnover differential. I'm looking in the weeds for value. Here is our value. Browns minus five, seven giveaways, only two takeaways. So they're not going to make the Ravens turn the ball over.

Maybe Lamar throws one pick. Maybe. This is Ben, but don't break on both sides of the football. Turnover, lean goes to Baltimore. Just look out the numbers. On top of that, is Deshawn Watson good? I got an honest question for you because he's gone for 55 completion percentage in two of these first three games. Is he good?

Answer it out loud because Nick Chubb ain't there to save him. Kareem Hong was on his couching potato chips and Ford still doesn't have a picture in man. So you cannot replace a run game and look at it last week. If you were to say yourself, Ford goes 10 for 18, Hunt goes 5 for 13, they should not win that kind of a football game. So everything that the Browns are going to beat you against this season is not going to work this weekend. Because the Ravens debunk every little nook and cranny angle that this Browns team can try to find value in to beat them. Stick to the fundamentals in this game. back to quarterback, back to coach.

Understand that timely turnovers, penalties, and the Browns, browning outs is going to happen. It's how it goes. And last but not least, believe in the trends. Okay. The Ravens are 19 and 4 against the spread in their last 23 games as a dog. 19 and 4. Also, teams that lost by straight up their favorites of. seven or more and lost straight up the following week, well over the number we need to hit profit

historically. And the Ravens off the loss, just like the Jags, go back and look, only happened once last year and it did not involve Lamar Jackson. The Ravens with Lamar Jackson, you have to go back two years, two years to watch him personally, number eight, lose two games in a row. You're getting the points. But this is the dirty dog segment. So we got to do some gross things.

Right. It's body line. All right, real quick on some props here. Be remiss if I didn't talk Cowboys Patriots. Seven point opening down to six and a half. Very interesting game. I love a Ramandre Stevenson breakout game. 53 and a half rushing yards.

Slam the Aaron Judge Gavill. Dallas's past D as good as. they are as good as their pass rush is. Go look it up. They're giving up 131 on the ground. James Connor hurt grown man feelings last week, running through them like Swiss cheese. Very good run scheme team.

They have not broken out Ramandre yet. He hasn't had a great game. This is a low number. I think we're getting a discounted price. Again, Cowboys, only way the Patriots even get through to them. is establish the run, play fundamental defense, stick to their guns, and run the ball. Run Ramandre Stevenson down their goal at over 53 and a half has to be my favorite prop of any of them.

As much as Christian Gonzalez has been lights out, he shut Tyree Kill down by Tyree Kill standards. I like the timing of C.D. Lamb over five and a half receptions off a four reception game off a 53-yard humble game. And you have to remind yourself 107 receptions last year. Guys getting between 6 and 6.5 per game. Look at a little bit of example. Because I do think we saw it with AJ Brown is why I hit it on the same game, Parley Monday night.

Star receivers having a quiet game, back them after a quiet game. 11 receptions in the game after the quiet giant start. CD went hand. Four receptions in the other two games. We need six to cash. This is not matter if he gets him on a screen, if he gets him on a slant, if he gets him on a curl.

We're not asking for him to go for 75 yards against Christian Gonzalez. We're asking him to get six receptions off a humble game where they are off a loss, where they're going to want to lean on their stars. They will look to CD Lamb first. And I'll tell you who they look to second. Jake Ferguson. I love it.

I love it. I think 30 and a half for seeming yards is so low in this game. Jake Ferguson, highest target of his humble first three is the starter for this team. Highest targets last week was seven. Five catches for 48 yards. What do we know about this pass rush? What do we know about this Bill Belichick front seven and scheme? They're going to shut down what you do best.

Dallas runs the ball. They're going to get to deck. He's going to have to make quick decide. decisions. It's kind of similar thinking of why I like C.D. Get the ball out quick, early and often. But if he cannot find 88, if he cannot find former Bill Belichick teammate, Brandon Cooks, he's going to find Jake Ferguson. Seven targets in two of the first three games to start out.

Good volume. I know that this Patriots team defends the tight end well. I really like Jake Ferguson. I can see it now. Easy catches, easy routes, humble, humble route movement to that 31 to cash. And it's not on the prop board yet, but Bill Belichick is subtly a little petty. I think Zeke Elliott to get in the end zone hasn't done deadly this season.

Wait for it. Not on draft kings yet. I'm going to sprinkle on it because I like these moments. I love it in the NBA, a player against their ex team. You'll hear me when we get to basketball season. Talk about that a lot. Hardin versus the Sixers if he ends up in the Clippers, mark it early, PRA over the moon.

It happens like clockwork. Zeke, a little bit of a diva, wants to score against his old team at Jerry's World, hop in the Salvation Army, tub, do a little throwback Thursday on a Sunday. I love it. And my last prop, unrelated, I think this is a great spot, similar thinking to the C.D. Lamb, T. Higgins over 58 and a half for seething yards, lock it up, lock it in quiet game versus the Browns. No catches.

You had to go back to his rookie season last time he went catchless. I told you that week to take him on the property. He went for eight receptions, 89 yards, two touchdowns. Last week, nada, nothing, not a peep. Yet Jamar Chase cooked. Two receptions, 21 yards. Went back and looked so you don't have to. T. Higgins against the Titans last year.

Scootched them. Over 100 with a touchdown. 7 for 114. That's damn near almost double what he needs to cash his ticket. Bottom five pass defense. The Titans cannot stop the pass. Another week for Joe Burroughs calf to magically heal. T. Higgins over 58 and a half.

And I am out of here on my Hail Mary. And all you have to do is rock with me on all four of these picks. And I'm giving you Ravens, Bengals, Bills, Jags, minus three, because we got to get over 10 to 1, pays plus 11, 55. 11 X your money. We are breaking out the brooms. I love these picks. I know.

No one wants to take three baby favorites and a disgusting dog. Two and one last week. I'm seeing the board. I'm crushing these primetime games. Go look up the receipts. We are out of here. It's the Money Line Monaco show. Pink Flamingo shirt to round out September before my SoCal soft self.

And it's freezing in the Northeast. Don't forget to hug your mothers. We will see you next week. The volume.