The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Week 5 Bets: Cowboys-49ers, Ravens-Steelers, Chiefs-Vikings, Jaguars-Bills

Episode Date: October 7, 2023

Alex Monaco shares his best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season, breaking down the biggest games including Dak Prescott's Dallas Cowboys taking on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens battling the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North showdown, Kirk Cousins' Minnesota Vikings looking to save their season against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the Kansas City Chiefs, and much more! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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void in Ontario, bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. See sportsbook.draftings.com slash football terms for eligibility and deposit restriction terms and responsible gaming resources. All right. Welcome into another episode of Sports Gambling with Moneyline, Monaco. Alex Monaco fired up to be with you. We are in October. We are in week five.

Turn the page to chapter two of the NFL season. We took our couch all the way to prime time Sunday night football. I'm in right behind me. Golden Gate Bridge, San Francisco 49thier territory. Coming off the last week where we give you three depth jar picks, my 321 favorite best bets, my dirty dog of the week. We went three and one on those plays, four and two overall on six best bets, week four. So we really rounded out the month of September gorgeously.

But we know in betting it's all about what you do next. Moneyline, Monaco across all platforms. Don't forget to subscribe rate review. Let's get into it. I just want preface this by saying last weekend, I would assume the line closing at Bears plus three and a half against the Broncos made it a four and one. I'm seeing three one and one home dogs covering week four. Just want to preface that as we go in.

It's going to be a little, little disgusting. This is not an easy slate. Last week, seeing the board, seeing the lane, little Kevin Neeland and Happy Gilmore. Just tapping it in. This week, oh, baby, just tread lightly. Let's dive in. First pick. I'm betting the number here, and I'm betting against the swifties.

It's not going to be fun. I take no joy in this, but I am going to Minnesota where, oh, by the way, the twins lifted a damn near two decade playoffless winless, excuse me, not playoffless, winless outing. They so wept the Blue Jays. So vibes are high at Target Field across in Skolland. I'm taking Kirk Nond prime time and the Minnesota Vikings at plus four and a half over the Kansas City Chiefs. Let's dive in to the pick. Here's the thing.

I was at MetLife Sunday. I saw it with my own astigmatism and four eyes. 17 nothing in a blink. Jets fans, you could hear a pin drop. Sounded like a library. And all of a sudden, Patrick Mahomes in this offense, credit to Sala, credit to that defense, schemed and adjusted mid-half so well to the point

where we're talking about 17 points out the gate, six points, two and a half quarters onward. I mean, we know about the Patty Mahomes, Scotty Van Bat beat slide. I was on the Jets with the points. So I don't love that the Chiefs didn't cover last week as far as timing, but I'll tell you what I do love. And it starts with my number one reason here. Minnesota can hang with anybody offensively.

And everyone wants to jump on this team. Shout out my guy, Paul, producing, mini die hard. This picks for him. Do you know? Do you stump the Schwab, though, who leads the NFL in touchdowns? Do you actually know? Because I bet you didn't know

it was Kirk Custs. I also bet you didn't know there's one man, one person who's got double-digit tugs, top three in passing, and has a number one wide receiver and receiving yards. There's one answer,

the Minnesota Vikings. Now, this shouldn't shock you if you've been watching Minnesota football. We have 21 games here. Out of the last 21 games, this team, 16 of them have been eight points or less outing. So as you sit here and go, how is Alex taking the Vikings? This is a bet the number. Now, unfortunately, this number was as high as five and a half, even six.

It was bet down. That shows you money is coming in on the Vikings. Tickets maintain it around 58, 59 percent on the chief. So public's going to lay the four and a half. and just assume the chiefs are going to handle it. Two sides of this coin, baby. This Vikings team, and we know it. They've only been blown out three times,

going back a year and some change. Three times. That was at Lambo that was on a primetime short week, game two against Philly, and it was against the Cowboys. None of those are a Kansas City threat because as we get in further, we know KC of lines more than three and a half,

and we got years of it cannot cover the spread. Patrick Mahomes in this team is, by the way, and this is worth mentioning, I did go a little in the weeds looking it up. They're on back-to-back road games. And the Chiefs, two years in a row, people, two years in a row have lost one of two games when they've had a sandwich of back-to-back road games. Happened last year, two of their three Ls, by the way. Two of them came on a sandwich of back-to-back road games. you're at New York, all kinds of off-the-field distractions. Yeah, I said it.

Don't look great. I mean, Mahomes had a couple of Baker-Mayfield early Cleveland Browns throws. I mean, CJ Mosley could have added a third pick. So all that to say, you get the combination of a Brian Flores defense that has absolutely coached this squad up. I don't sit here and say Minnesota has players on defense. you got a Harrison Smith, you got a Daniel Hunter, but you, in all actuality, just have scheme to hang on here with Flores, but you look at it. And he's got a guy on his team that's got a top five NFL and Sack statistic.

He's got a dude in Harrison Smith who may end up being, he may end up being special, special, absolutely getting his jersey retired in many. But this is a dumb luck team. So we're backing a team, a couple of ways to look at it. That's just dumb luck. much improved defense. Let's not forget. They were bottom five in yards giving up, bottom five in overall points against on defense. They're not bottom 10 in any category defensively.

So you look at the one score game element. You look at Patty Mahomes back to back. You look at the number and you factor it all in. You got to say to yourself, all right, the swifties might be going down. I have to sit here and really sell you on the number because, no one in their right mind thinks Minnesota's winning this game, but I will say, studying the future boards on draft Kings, looking at Minnesota in the north, looking at them to win a playoff berth, they haven't changed odds-wise to the point where the

books are telling you they're out on Minnesota. They're not out on Minnesota. So we got an improved defense. We have a offense that can dance, score for score at home. You want to talk about home field advantage, one of the places you want to back a club, it's going to be loud, it's enclosed, it is a winner go home moment as well. I think they can cover. I think they could shock the world and steal this game. It's football. Even the Cowboys lose to the Cardinals.

Third favorite pick, Minnesota Vikings. Let's go second up here. I take no joy in this. And I may be alone on Revis Island here. I may be by myself. It's me. It's the Wilson volleyball. and it's a Tom Hanks castaway beard taking this bet.

It's gross. But I'll be damned if I bail on Joe Burrow at this moment. Now, three and one last week, my one out was the Sincy Bengals minus two and a half at Tennessee. Here we are again with a line on draft Kings that is actually moving. I'm seeing it at minus three. It was down this morning at minus two and a half. Either way, I co-signed on that play. If you are going to back the.

Arizona Cardinals against a backs against the wall. Cincinnati must win to save their season moment. You're going to get suckered in. I'm telling you, you have to 10 second comment from 51st states. You have to men in black. You have to forget sometimes what happened last week. Now, you will say the Bengals offense is inept. They're bottom two next to the Giants and points per game.

They're bottom five in pass yards. All right. That's fair. It's fine. But in all actuality, we still have a top five quarterback. We still have a top five, top three, let's be honest, one two punch at wide receiver between Chase and Burr and Higgins. And we're going against Arizona.

I mean, I'm sorry, Arizona. Everyone wants to, oh, they're the darling against the spread. They've given up the six most yards per game in the NFL this season. Okay. They're damn they're giving up for. hundred yards per game. All right, they have a bottom 10 passing defense, which is huge for us here. And I have to remind you, a team that started out, oh-and-two, a team that has battled back, had a Super Bowl hangover, had to go through a little bit of injuries with Burrow in the first month of

season. They've been here before. They've been here before. Now, I need to remind you, because everyone's thinking about the three points against the Browns and the three points against the Titans, two solid defense is much better than this Arizona defense. And at 24, points against the top five Ravens team. So as much as we want to sit here and say they can't move the ball, they're cooked. No, they're not. They're not. So Arizona, who does have the sixth best running game at the moment, is going to have

to look at Cincinnati stopping the run. If James Connor imposes his will like he did against that Dallas D that showed themselves to be soft that day, it is going to be a little bit of a sweat. But all this Bengals team has to do is play their. game, the personnel, the talent, the scheme, the coaching, the quarterback, you do that coward MBA theory, who's got the most stars on the team, you lean Sinti 10 out of 10 times. So if there was ever a time to buy low on a team that could still run the table, that a team that is proven, and I saw a Burrow Press conference, which I love your last thought, he sat

there and said, we pry ourselves on going on. the road. This line also just a little CLV here, closing line value thought this line was six and a half on draft Kings last week. You really mean to tell me an Arizona team that didn't even look competitive, competitive against San Francisco. And yeah, okay, they were covering the spread for a cup of coffee. But I mean, they lose a double digit spread, no problem in a cinch. So everything that this Arizona team has kind of found little ways to get momentum with. I do believe since he can debunk that. And if this gets in a shootout, I'll take Joey Burr all day.

The chase quote was telling the borough quote this week was telling. I think so big, big win for the Cincinnati Bengals. And we are absolutely looking at the painting differently. Next week, you got damn near three and a half four points of value swung towards the better team. people aren't even betting the Bengals. So I'm not sitting here on the Joe's side, pun intended. Give me Joey Burrow.

And what everyone likes to believe is the second best quarterback in the league right here, right now. All right. We fix the fro. We get ourselves ready for the number one game of Sunday. This is one of these games. Look, Sunday night, I normally bunker down. I'm finding a New York City bar. I have to go somewhere in New York.

city to fade to grab every kind of talking-ish to the cowboys I can find. I love the Cowboys this year, but I am all in on the San Francisco 49ers. Lay the Dustin Hoffman hook. We live by it. We die by it. Not Sunday night. Give me the San Francisco 49ers over the Dallas Cowboys all day long. Let's dive in.

in my opinion, in my opinion, as we look at this game, you have to say to yourself, to stout defenses, to well-coached clubs, to very balanced tip for tat personnel, stars on both sides, quarterbacks that are capable. So you have to really, when you look at this game, start to get in the trenches, which I absolutely did,

and say yourself, where are the edges? where are the edges when these teams are this close statistically, this dominant defensively, this dictating the pace in the trenches offensively, you have to really get down to it. Now, by the numbers the Niners have, at least on offense, because this Cowboys team ain't second in yards, ain't top 10 in passing, third in rushing, and third in points per game like this.

Brock Purdy interceptionless, by the way, led Niners offense. running the ball, grown man with it down people's gullet. I mean, CMAQ, not one, not two, not three. Guy was doing the LeBron to Miami press conference, but for touchdowns, not rings in front of our eyes. You can't stop them. You can only hope to contain them. And when you have CMAC like that, and you can still change a pace,

it bring in a little Debo Jet Suite, bring in a little bit of a more, impose more physicality like CMA does with Eliza. It's a long day for a Dallas team that before last week was given up 131 on the ground, still giving over a buck pen. So Dallas is not going to be able to run the ball on this San Francisco team. In my opinion, the way San Francisco is going to be able to run the ball on Dallas. I mean, we sat there and watched Dallas's defense look, S-O-F-T, certified soft. So for me, it starts and ends with physicality.

and imposing your will in the run game. And I will take Kyle Shanahan and that play calling all day over McCarthy. Now, the other thought is where does Dallas dominate? Dallas dominates on turnovers. Can't do that against the Niners. Can't do that. Brock Purdy has not thrown an interception. No blemage to his record.

Now, Dak, we know about the league leading double digit 15 picks last year. To his credit, looked flawless protecting the football. But what happens when he does what he did last year in the playoffs in that night? and that 19 points got you the double loss, and he turns the ball over. What happened? Everybody's fine. Everybody's all in on C.J. Stroud when he doesn't have a turnover. What happens when you Mike Tyson get punched in the face and you got to react?

Now, you saw it in the Arizona game. You haven't had an example of a San Francisco game where they've just dropped the ball. You saw a few things as we're on our way out here in this Dallas pit. You see what happens when they can't stop the run. You see what happens with not Kellen Moore, but Mike McCarthy, when they're down, say what you will. Yeah, Dallas can hang with anyone offensively. I don't think this team is built to come from behind.

Doc Prescott is not a guy to me. You want to back against the San Francisco D. God forbid they go down early. Have we ever seen Shanahan's play calling get ridiculed? I'm sitting there live betting Dallas in a pick-em against Arizona two weeks ago, and I'm throwing things in my studio apartment that ricketts. Shea in back at my face because a McCarthy's baby back, play not to lose play column. Stretch the field, you go down.

That's something. And that was a game where they ran 22 more plays, 22, 75 to 53 on place. Dallas over Arizona, they only out scored them out yard wise by 16. That's a team that gave up 400 yards to Arizona. Did you see the Arizona San Francisco game? We can play that game as well. So to me, on my way out, keys to the game, physicality and pose your will. stick to your game play and run the ball.

Just Brock Purdy game managed. Just game manage. You're rocking on the wingman circuit with a certified celebrity star. Just play off of them. Let him make all the intros. That's all purdy has to do. Let C-Mack do his thing.

Let the stars align. Just play a fundamentally sound game and put your stars in positions to succeed. I think we hit a clearance of minus three and a half. No problem. And last but not least. this is disgusting, this is gross. I'm telling you right now, take the four points. Thank me later, but I'm going sleeves rolled up.

Monaco money line, Monaco. We can't do it on the show and not take it. Give me the Pittsburgh Steelers at home against the Baltimore Ravens, who we took last week, by the way, off one of the most embarrassing Pittsburgh Steelers losses I've seen in that week one was almost just. just as embarrassing. I can possibly even remember. Now, this is, there's no such thing as safe in betting. Okay, there's no such thing as safe. But you want to talk about protection behind the

numbers. You could not feel better. If you just closed your eyes and heard this about backing Pittsburgh, at least with the four. Now, again, I'm going money line. This is the dirty dog. You do what you want. Underdogs in the Tomlin versus Harbaugh series hear this out. 22. five and three, the underdog has covered in the Steelers Raven series when it's Tomlin and it's harbop. The underdog has covered against the spread 11 straight out teams. 11, 15, 1 and 1 ATS since 2015. So whoever's getting points, translation in Raven Steelers covers 15 out of the last 17. When the spread is three or more, going back to a non, this roster's prevalent thought, but still just wanting to tell you this.

Spread three or more since 05, 21 and 3 against the spread. So you look at last year, Steelers won 1613, Steelers lost 16, 14. Absolutely take the scuba Steve under in here. And the very last trend, I really got to throw this out there because we remember when we all did it and we looked at Pittsburgh and I got that game wrong like, an idiot who got the break speed off on week one against San Francisco. What happens after a Mike Tomlin blowout loss of 20 points or more? Oh, he only owns the best record in the history of the NFL.

He's only 11 and 2 after getting blown out by 20 or more. Want to know this season? So, okay, Pickett's got the knee. Let's not sit here and not say that isn't a problem. That's an issue. with Canada running the offense, and we're not talking hockey, I'm scared. I'm not going to lie. But I do believe I'm looking at it.

I think picket's going to play. Even if it's Mitchie True biscuits, I'll take it. But they have to at least buy into the run. Nogia Harris on the win last year was 22 for 111 on the ground. Nage on the loss was 12 for 33. Big discrepancy there. So a plethora of Ravens injuries. I'm not saying last week wasn't different than this week, injury-wise.

excuse me, but Stanley, Marcus Williams, Bateman, Odell, Justice Hill, Marlon Humphrey. I mean, these are big name players. And last but not least here, the Ravens and Lamar against Pittsburgh, he doesn't have great numbers. I mean, he's got more picks and touchdowns and five career games against him. He's got a 67 career passer rating. I just cannot tell myself, I'm going to lay four in what I'm seeing as the biggest, most confident number to back. head to head in these divisional games. Do I dare say you're back in a home divisional dog?

And taking you from the top of the show, three, one and one or four and one. If you got that three and a half last week, home divisional dogs. Real quick, rapid fire. Props. I'm going to London. I'm going to London town.

Couple of props for you, all right? Tredavius White Achilles out. You hate to see it. As much as I want to tell you to take Ridley, I want you to take Christian Kirk over 55. and a half yards. All right. What did this man do in London?

He ate. Okay, he ate better food than London provides. I'm part, part English. Eight for eight four. First ATL. Four for 53 with a tutte versus Houston. 11 for 110 against KC. That's his three weeks.

His last three weeks, 100 yard game, 80 plus game, 50 plus yard game. Only two yards below the number we're getting on draft kings. You have to purchase it. 55 and a half receiving yards. Again, in a stadium where this is out of body, out of water. experience for Buffalo, more comfortable for this Jags team who's been chilling in London down watching, you know, Man City kick a 3-1 late Champions League dub over Leipzig. I digress.

Love that number. Also, how do we not take Stefan Diggs over 81 and a half? He's only gone for over 100 yards. I mean, look at these, look at these numbers in three of these four games. It's off a three-tuddy game, six for 120, 12 for 111, 13 for 102, and 12 for 102, against the Jets. He's been getting so much volume, so many looks. It's like Josh Allen's just zeroing in on him.

So, Jags have a much better run D than they do a past D. Look for that number. And on that thought, I do like him over a hundred plus again at plus 170. The value is there. And the Jags, they're right next to the Titans,

okay, in passing D where Herbert absolutely scorched Tennessee. All that to say, Josh Allen's one and a half touchdowns over under on DK. And it's only minus 160. I think we have to lay the juice. I don't love it, but he's off a four tutty game. He's got a three tutty game this year.

If they win and they roll, he's going to have a fallout statistical day. So I love those three props specifically in that game. If I was looking for a fourth, I'd be flirting with Trevor Lawrence rushing yards. He did have eight rushing attempts last week against a pretty serviceable Landerundi. But, you know, I don't see him. on DK yet, but that would be my fourth prop for that game. And we're out of here on a Hail Mary Lay. Give me the Steelers money line. Bengals, money line. Vikings plus four and a half. Niners money line over 11 to one. How about those Matt, Damon, Apple? Steelers, Bengals, Bengals, Vikings,

Niners, those are my picks. We put them all in a lay. How do you do? Three and one last week. Three and one. Don't forget to hug your mothers. Let's cash them October tickets. All right. A few more minutes here to just debrief wrap. I'm sweating. Probably should have started the show on air conditioning.

It's October I got air conditioning on. All that to say as I drip talking out the rest of this slate, I do like a few other games. I just didn't put them on the show because there's some star-studded game, a star-studded matchups, some of these games that look pretty appetize, not glamorous by any means. This Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans number looks very interesting. Now, everybody is all about this Houston Texans team.

All about, I'm two and up fading the Falcons in the last two weeks. I think this is a pretty good buy low spot. lot for an Atlanta Falcons team that I think was just getting overvalued in the last two weeks. And then next thing you know, I'm sitting here and looking at a damn near pickum and a line that is, I believe, flipped. And I got to sit here and say to myself, Atlanta at home off two L's, well coach team. Okay, top five rushing team. We know about this defense that is improved that has gotten to the quarterback pretty well.

I mean, let's not forget Bates is on this team. Colias is on this team. Bud DePree. There's a few guys. There's a few guys that can rough it up. You know, it's kind of a similar sentiment in the thinking of, okay, DAC hasn't turned the ball over at all. What happens when he turns a ball over?

Well, look at the Houston, Texas. Are the Houston, Texas going to never turn the ball over? Is it just going to be a perfect season? C.J. Stroud's going to go Brock Purdy on him. So I look at that game, and I say, to myself, you know, an ATL team that is like top seven in overall just stopping yards and a pretty serviceable Atlanta pasty. I mean, I'm looking at it's kind of hard to fathom as this record lays out at 500 that it's Browns, Cowboys, Ravens, Bills, and then Falcons as the fit best pasty in the league.

So C.J. Stroud's going to have to sit there and he's going to have to find a way to pick apart a pretty good defense that, again, this is a week to week league. These teams are too close for comfort in Houston and Atlanta in a coin flip game to sit here and feel like if Atlanta plays a little bit like Houston, ironically, just manages the game. And I've joked about Ritter at sleepaway camp. He's not ready for it. He's a homeschool cat. All right.

He's got to have his mom make plans for him instead of him make plans for him. all the stuff that I hysterically ripped him for. He's pretty good at home. And this team is a pretty good identity at home. And everything that I'm looking at in this matchup, it's a coin flip game, but you're buying so high on Houston and you're selling so low on Atlanta. It's just not how the betting world works. So these are one of those spots where I just kind of lean Atlanta.

I'm not sold fully on what Houston's doing. And that's just a physical game. We kind of got two teams similar in a sense where they're just young pups. They're figuring, you know, they got training wheels on a quarterback. They're trying to establish the run. They're trying to play a hard nose in the trenches. And Smith versus D'Amico, a coin flip game, I'll take the home team. So I am leaning that number.

I'm looking at a couple other ones. As much as I wanted to take the Jags with the points, because you can't really cap a go across the pond thing when one team like Buffalo hasn't been there since 2016 and another team's been there every year since 11 years ago, 12 years ago, however long Jacksonville's been going there. I just don't know what Jacksonville is yet. And again, I've spoke on this as well. You look at the tells of these future bets sometimes like Jacksonville being plus

145 to win the South. It's like that was a minus 180 closing line before the season. everybody's the same record. They won a gain last week, and then they went down in value. That's Vegas telling you that they think the bills could easily go over, roll them, catch a Tottenham Hotspurts game, come back to Buffalo.

I just, I don't know that I'm sold on the Jacks Plus 5. You also look at the statistics and the trends for favorites in Wembley or in London for that matter, and it tends to lean that the favorite covers we did have, by the way, on the show, which we love Jacks minus three last week. Shout out the Toy Story breakdown.

A couple other games. This is gross. I almost made it my dog of the week. I think the New York Jets are going to go into Denver and win that game. They're getting plus two and a half. I have seen this Jets team play real defense despite their fan base, despite maybe their head coach, despite maybe their upper management,

despite even maybe their injured star quarterback, not believing NZW. Zach Wilson. But this man is off career highs, 105 QBR, 71% completion rate, first game throwing two tutties with no mistakes. And oh, by the way, it's the first time my Holmes was ever statistically outplayed and caught a W still. So not saying last week is this week, but I'm not sitting here saying on a New York Jets locker

room that's looking for any conceivable reason to stay and remain optimistic that they can't go into a team that's already had a 70 hung on. That's already been down three scores against the Chicago winless Bears team. That's already, to me, not believe at all in a Sean Peyton-led locker room. I don't see any togetherness in Denver. So if this is about where the locker rooms are and who's got more belief inside it, at the moment, I do lean the New York Jets. Now, it's not fun to go to Denver in altitude. I see these retro throwbacks. I see these retro throwbacks. John Elway Unis, they're rocking. I don't love that.

I am, I'm not a science guy, but I'm not a science guy. I don't love that. But what I do love is a real defense that turned Josh Allen three times over without Aaron Rogers and stole a game against Buffalo, who's put up 35 plus points since then. So if this team can stop Josh Allen, then why can't they stop Russell Wilson? I don't care where the games play. I just cannot sit here and make case for Denver. and I know, oh, two and a half, short line,

just take the home team. Take the under, if you're going to take anything in this game. But I do believe this much significantly better defense can win this game for them outright, just as long as Zach Dobb can manage it. Just manage the game, baby. Play a little Minnesota Twins on offense. You just need one homer, one little get on, bun him over, sack fly. It's all Zach Wilson has.

to do. Just let a Garrett Wilson get on base, Bonham in, get them over. That's it. That's it. Russell Wilson and that defense will one of those two elements will implode. Denver may be the worst team in the NFL. I'm not kidding. I'm not kidding. So I'm going to take the take flight jets here. I'm not one of my favorite plays, but I am going to take it. All right, we're out of here. Action pack show. Vikings plus four and a half. We bet the number. Fade the Chiefs back-to-back road games. Don't think that's nothing. Give me the dumb luck, mini. I'll take the Bengals in the lowest spot. You can buy them all year. Watch them be three and three after six weeks. You come back to the show and be like, oh, Monica, I had a little

something on that. Yeah, I did. And I'm betting on it with my real money. Niners, let everyone know who is Dob Dog. Who is the senior with the nicest car in the parking lot? Hit Sam Fran, baby. and in the battle of the AFC North, gross underdog covering of all covering. 15, 1 in the last 17. Give me the Steelers. You take the points. I'll take the money line. We'll see you on the other side.

Don't forget to hug your mothers. That's a show. I'll stop.