The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Week 5 Bets: Cowboys-Rams, Burrow vs Lamar, 49ers-Panthers, Dolphins-Jets

Episode Date: October 8, 2022

Alex Monaco shares his best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season starting with Joe Burrow and the Bengals facing off against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in an AFC North showdown.  He then turns his attention to Nick Chubb and the Browns taking on Justin Herbert and the Chargers, Zack Wilson and the Jets up against Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins, Matthew Stafford and the Rams vs Cee Dee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel and the 49ers look to stay atop the NFC West as they take on Baker Mayfield and the Panthers. #Volume #Herd #ColincowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. What's good is Alex, Monica. Make sure to check out all things on the volume sports YouTube channel. And always join us on the best gambling show ever Tuesdays and Thursdays. Be sure to follow all of our betting endeavors on fanduil.com slash volume. And welcome in to another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline, Monica. Let's go. Lots.

Cash. Week 5, October's here. I'm in New York. We got playoff baseball. We got the first month of the season to get a little Costco sample size takeaways on all these teams. There is value all over the board this week. Welcome back in if you're just joining me. And you haven't heard the last few weeks.

We've yet here on week five, knocking on wood, to have a losing week on this program. If you have not subscribed, rated or reviewed goes a very long way. greatly appreciated Uncle Colin, volume sports, the Johnny Stockton of all Johnny Stockton's. We're just living the dream, baby, trying to get a little Uber eats, eating out, take your significant other to a pumpkin patch. I don't know. Do something with these winnings. We come off a two one and one ATS last weekend pod.

Really should have been three and one because say what you will about the bills game, but if you saw inside the huddle mic up, they were supposed to run that. in. What a cover, got a push. And we move onwards and upwards. Clean, sweet Monday night football pod. Everything but Cup getting in the end zone hit. Niners in the under. We're Danny Dial, baby. All picks on Action Network. All social on Money Line. Monaco. Let's get into it. I got four picks. I might give you a fifth. I've done the research. I'm talking it out. I'm terrified about it. but I'm 0 for four betting for or against that team. I'll tease that at the end, but let's dive in.

First pick, just so you know, two favorites, two dogs. Did it last week to 101 APS. Let's mingle. Sunday night. Prime time. Prime time, Lamar. Fly ravens. flock fly.

I'm taking the Baltimore Ravens minus three at a number I love. For a team, I had to triple check the stigmatism that is two and two and has only trailed a total. Listen to this. Less than 30 seconds

of a game. Total. We're talking about the Bills and the Dolphins, Scotty Van Bad Beats. They have only trailed for 30 seconds, less than. This is a 4-0 team that's 2-2.

Meanwhile, we get a Baltimore team at home. Going against a Ravens club here that, in my opinion, knowing that the Bengals swept them last year, and that's what we are working with here, first time since 2015, scored 41 points in both of those games. they only scored over 34 on Baltimore once prior in the last decade. Last year, the Ravens remember. Last year was about the Bengals come up when it should have been about what the Ravens,

it had injuries not plagued them at the end of the year, had been building for several. Here's what I'm sitting on. Since 2020, Joey Burr, the Bengals are 15 and 4. when scoring 24 points. All right. 1, 16 and 1 when scoring 23 or fewer.

1 16 and 1. Now I'm not saying that the Ravens can't come in and play little to no defense like they have. And this becomes a shootout and we need Lamar to win in a shootout. but I have been watching AFC North football my entire career, my entire life. And AFC North football was ugly.

It's defensive-minded. It's a chess match. It's a battle in the trenches. And I look at this Bengals team. And I just mentioned that magic number here of 24. Well, you go to the schedule here. And this team in losses. under the magic number.

Now they've hit on 27 here in two straight weeks. The Jets don't have a very good defense. The dolphins have showed you their bend but not break and trap spot, bad line, bad bet, taking the dolphins after that week they had on and off the field against the bills. I look at Baltimore. And this is a team. Say what you will.

about their defense is first in interceptions. They have seven first. They're still decent at getting to the quarterback. They're on the right side of total sacks. They have more sacks than the Bengals. They're still running the ball, not at a top three rate like they've been the last several years, but they're top eight.

So putting up 142 yards on the ground. I think what we saw at J.K. Dobbins last week, two tugs, healthy in almost a year and a half, huge, over a year and a half. me. They're right there, right there yard for yard with the Bengals. And they score more points. The Ravens have scored the third most points in the league through a month of football, by the way. They're averaging just under 30. They're at 29.8 points per game through the first month of the season at two and two. The Bengals are putting up 22.8 below their magic number. The Bengals, this is what I make of

the Bengals. They are Joey Burrow heavy. Joe Burrow, credit to him, volume sports colleague, hasn't thrown a pick since week one. They've looked a lot more fundamentally sound. But I think they have a little bit of some running the football issues. And if we look at this game on Sunday night, if the Bengals can't run the football, which I don't necessarily think they will run the football very well against this Baltimore defense. we saw what the Baltimore defense actually is for the first time all year last week against the bills. Opportunistic getting turnovers forcing Josh Allen in uncomfortable situations.

And Josh Allen's mobile borough has mobile capabilities, but he's not a mobile quarterback by nature. So if they can't run the ball and they can get to this Bengals offensive line, which we've seen got to two out of the four games this year, Let's not forget how many times Burrow was under the rest week one against the Steelers, who are also after a month of football. We've assessed not a very good team. I love the Ravens.

I don't care where the public is on this game. If it was three and a half, completely different assessment, I don't think the Bengals are there yet. I do think the top dog in this division is the Ravens. They rarely, rarely in division go back historically, look, lose three times in a row to a team. I know we've turned the page last year this year, different locker room, different timing, all of that.

It's a divisional game, all right? It's a divisional game. They're different. They are truly different. Ravens at home prime time field goal favorite don't overthink it. All right. The Bengals have one quality win. One.

And the Raven should be four now. We move on to my first. of the day. Here we go. I'm fading my former San Diego Chargers, now L.A. Chargers. I am taking the Cleveland Browns with conviction on a bounce back game against the Falcons where the public hammered, hammered Cleveland, who looked good the week prior on Thursday night against the Steelers. Again, we know who the Steelers are, so who hasn't looked good against them.

This is a great spot for the Browns. We know, as I'll look it up and tell you, it's really hard to actually even comprehend what's going on with the Chargers inside the numbers because they are so stacked with personnel. This team is unequivocally top five roster in the league. Unequivocally. Here we are again, though, with the LA Chargers. not figuring out how to stop the run and not figuring out how to run how to run the football. Very bottom of the NFL at 64.5 on the ground per game going against a fairly serviceable run D in Cleveland for what it's worth. And Cleveland, oh, I hope you know where they are.

And they were last year right there at the top outside of the New York football giants, which will have regression. Cleveland Brown's the best running football team in the league. They are the best running football team in the league. 187 on the ground people, 187 yards on the ground. Chargers come in, giving up over a hundred on the ground and they can't run the football. This game comes down to a couple of intangibles. As I briefly tell you where the money is, 54% of the bets on the LA charges. Okay, you ready for this discrepancy?

84% of the money is on the Cleveland Browns. Now, if you could get it at plus three, ideal. plus two and a half is the line. We'll take it. This is being recorded at this moment of two and a half. I'm giving out two and a half. I'm telling you if it goes back to three, take the three. Nick Chubb, 118 in a tug and a tutty against the Falcons.

It's his 25th game since 2018, which leads the NFL of most 100 rushing yard outings, more than King Henry, more than your favorite. running backs favorite running back. All right. This Cleveland team, say what you will about Jacoby Brissette. They've netted over 350 yards of offense in all four games. The last time that's happened,

1958. 58 browns netting over 350 yards. They're balanced. They don't turn the ball over. They have two. average running backs. They have a playmaking wide receiver now with Amari Cooper. Last week was a trap game.

I ran into it. Wasn't a play, but I did take the Browns on Action Network. I was wrong. Love them this week, though. Here's something for you to really, really ruminate on. And I've been living this as a San Diego Charger fan of recovery my whole life. Okay. The Chargers are a tale of two teams.

tale of two halves. They're a tale of a Spanos family running them. But that's neither here nor there. Okay. They scored 27 by half time against the Texas. By half time. Gave up seven. You know what the final score was? 34.20. Here we are again that the Chargers who are top five in plus minus differential on points in the first half of games, plus 28 are 31st in the NFL in second half point differential. They are being outscored by 44 points in the second half. 44. Staley needs to go. Not a leader of men. I don't like how they handled Herbert's health with the ribs. I don't think he's fully recovered. He is going you be, and it's going to be very hard to watch. And you go back to this podcast and remember,

he's going to take some hits between Miles Garrett, clowny if he goes, and this front seven from Cleveland, that's going to be hard to watch. The man's going to be wincing. I don't root for anyone to be in that kind of a position. But this offensive line has been banged up, multiple, multiple pro bowlers on this line. They've been without in multiple games. Of course, they lose their all pro for the year. Slater, it's sick. Changes everything, quite frankly.

This team, it's an indoor team, it's a Southern California team. They're going to Cleveland. It's not September 6th, 7th, 8th. It's going to be the 9th in October. It's going to be cold. It's going to be fall football. And this is an indoor SoCal soft team playing outside.

And they cannot close football games. They cannot close football games. It's an ugly, ugly fade of my favorite team that I also hate. I will take Cleveland Browns plus two and a half and sprinkle on the money line as well. We head back to the AFC East. Third pick, absolutely loving it. Dolphins, minding. minus three off a long, long L, long L. All right. Teddy covers gets the start. We know what Teddy

bridge over no troubled water has been in his career. He's been serviceable. He's been excellent with his completion percentage. He has been fundamentally sound and he has covered a lot more times than he hasn't. There was a double digit streak. Maybe it got to non where Teddy. covers was his legitimate nickname. And we have the dolphins who have won eight of their last nine against the New York Jets coming to MetLife where they wrapped up a seven point victory last year against Zach Wilson. And they come in as the highest yards per play first down team at 6.86 in the league. And we have the highest outside of Kirk Cousins completion percentage quarterback on our side in this game. That's right. Teddy covers since he's been in the league 66.4% completion percentage.

Only Kirk non-prime cousins has a higher one by a smidge. Who are you taking if you're taking the Jets and Zach Wilson? This man is the Costanza opposite of Teddy covers. Completed 55.1% of his passes in his first 14 games as a career. It's the lowest completion percentage. in the last two years, minimum 400 attempts of all 30 active NFL quarterbacks is the lowest completion percentage. Everyone, perfect, perfect trap bat as far as I'm concerned. Because the dolphins, they're without Tua, they have distractions, they are coming in off a loss and a pretty rough one at the end of that game where they could have won that game and

they only didn't win. They didn't even come close to covering. And the Jets just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. And not many people had the Jets, but how about this? Another nugget fee and Noggin. Because this is without question going to have regression.

The Jets have scored 70 points in four games this season. 40 of those points have come in the final two minutes of the first half in the second half. 40. 40 points in the last two minutes of first half and second half football. No other team has more than 30 points this season in that same category. The Jets, they are flying by the skin of their teeth, Jerry. I'm telling you, I'm telling you, I'm telling.

It's an 18th points per game offense, 19th points per game. defense. We have a top 10 Dolphins offense. We have a top five when healthy all across the board, outside of running the ball, dolphins offense, and let's not forget what this defense,

when it matters outside of Thursday night, have been. They've been locked down in important spots. I look at the Ravens game, a game I was on the Ravens. They shut down Lamar in the fourth when they needed to. They shut Josh Allen down,

despite the record of completions and plays 90 that the bills had a couple weeks ago. We have a better coach. We have better talent. We have a desperate team off a loss that let's not get it twisted. They're three and one. The jets are two and two.

The bills are going to route the Steelers this week. The dolphins need to go game for game, tip for tat with Buffalo. They know they have to win this. game. If it moved to three and a half, I'd be thinking differently. Home dog with three and a half, we know what that is in sports betting. You typically plug your snage and take the ugly Panthers points against the Saints and then they win. It's just what it is. It's disgusting. But Dolphins have had 10 days. And I think on some level, they come closer from all of this

and they put their best foot forward and they win this ball game comfortably. I'll take the dolphins minus three. Go back to Dog Day, baby. Go back to Dog Day. I'm taking the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi plus five and a half and I'm sick about it. Easily gone back and forth on this. I've seen Sharp say this is the Rams play. You buy low.

Get off the Cooper Rush bandwagon. No Cowboys quarterback has ever won his first four. starts, Cooper Rush stands alone on Jerry's World Mount Rush more of rookie starters. Well, he's not a rookie, but starting your first four, the man is MySpace top one. We know the Cowboys are unbelievable in division. We know they're mediocre outside. There ain't no in their last same division. They're seven and seven outside. Let's also remind ourselves, though, they were the number one road cover last year and they never outside of the conference didn't cover. They covered every single road outing last year in the NFC.

They dominated against the spread in the NFC. And I look no further than the trenches in this game. Listen to this. Shelton, center, not even the starting. set the backup center for Maddie staff sideline for four to six weeks with a high ankle spring their original center Brian Allen making progress from a knee injury that he hurt during the bills he is not returning this week they are going with a third string center to give the ball to Matt Stafford all right they're elevating alignment from the practice squad I'm hearing they could be

up to without four offensive starting linemen this week for knowing that Stafford's been Sacks 16 times second most in the league knowing that Parsons Lawrence Armstrong and these Cowboys Front seven are second in the NFL in sacks. I am sitting here and I'm watching and I hammered the Niners Monday night. I'm watching a Rams offense. no Van Jefferson. Alan Robinson might as well be me out there with a sublect shoulder. They cannot move the football if it's not in number 10's hands.

They can't run the football because A, the offensive line, B, Cam Acres and Henderson, they just ain't it. I mean, look at the discrepancy between a chub and. and a hunt and a pack of what? 80 ones and Madden? It's hard to watch in three of the four games for the Rams. Nine points, 10 points, 20 points. All right.

Outside of the shootout with the Falcons, 13 points a game, their average. No one has put up more than 17 points against the Cowboys. No one. Commanders 10, giant 16, Bengal, 17 bucks, baby. baby, excuse me, 19. No one's put up more than 19.

The Rams are walking in to a smothering defense in the Dallas Cowboys. Now, I'm not saying the Cowboys are going to win. I have no choice. Five and a half points. One quarterback hasn't turned the ball over. One has four tug, six picks, can't run without four. fists more than likely of his offensive line. We got to take the Cowboys. We have to. SoFi and Jerry's world from a comfortability standpoint, almost the exact same environment.

You want to talk about home field for the Rams? Pedal back, Jerry, it's Southern California. This is going to be 5545 Rams Cowboys fans. There's going to be blue in that stadium them everywhere. We take the five and a half to the bank real quick. Those are my four official. I got a bonus one. I've been staring and staring and staring. How do we not bury, bury the Niners and take the six and a half, swallow it,

and fade the living daylights out of the most unwatchable team I may have ever backed or gone against. I'm 0 and 4. Backing or fading the Carolina Panthers. They're 1 and 3. You could do the math. They are without question, the hardest team to watch in the NFL.

They can't move the football. They can't run the football. They have no chemistry. They don't have any dog on offense. All the grit, all of the rah-rah, all of the underdog story you saw with Baker in Cleveland as none of it.

I told you I'm on State Farm. I'm off progressive. They're garbage. San Francisco comes in leading the league in defense of three and outs. 40% of the time, almost 60% of the Brian Fantana time, it works every time. They're off the field in three and outs. They are the only team in the league that had multiple three and out streaks within the same game. That being the Denver Bronco game. They are far and away the number one defense in the NFL, giving up 11 and a half.

number one in sacks with 15. They're top nine in rushing, just getting the Stella grew back, 135 on the ground. Debo goes for 106 on six balls. Defense shut the lights out on the Rams. And the Niners come in throwing 664 passing yards in four games. I mean,

Colin must be feeling phenomenal about his Baker takeaways because this team is so bad. If Darna was healthy, I already convinced they would have made the change. Matt Rule might not make it to the trade deadline. Not a leader of men. Swing and a miss. Only two Panthers teams ever have had worse

offensive starts than this Baker-Mayfield squad. And last thing I'll say is, look, when the Niners have won twice this year, double-digit Ws, comfortable wins. And I backed the Panthers last week against the Cardinals trying to be sharp, trying to fade the public. I mean, honestly, the Cardinals have an unwatchable defense, and they made Baker Mayfield look uncomfortable.

As the great Sebastian said, I'm uncomfortable, that shit, comfortable. And I have no choice but to take the Niners here and swallow the six and a half. Normally you go the other way. San Francisco doesn't play Carolina and Carolina very well. this comes down to winning the turnover battle, getting off the field quickly, and asking the world of the Panthers D, who last two weeks have not looked what they were in the first two weeks.

I'm sorry. We'll take the Niners minus six and a half. We're out of here. Ravens minus three. Browns plus two and a half sprinkle on the money line. Dolphins minus three, Cowboys plus five and a half. And we swallow the six and a half against

the Panthers. You have yourself a wonderful week five. I do want to throw out there. I'm a San Diego kid in a New York world. Padres Mets grew up. Dad's from New York, Long Island, New York Mets household. I'm going to the games plural. I got to go Mets. I'm sorry. San Diego cannot have the weather. They cannot have Ron Burgundy. They cannot have California burritos like you've never tasted. Fries in a burrito, carneasada. You don't even want to know what you're missing. and they can't have the Padres too. I got the Mets. You get the Grom, you get Scherzer and two out of the three.

You get home field. You got to go Mets to win the series. I like them in game one. If this hits your rear lobes before the series starts, and as far as overall series, I feel very good about the Cardinals over the Phillies. I feel very good, very good about the Mets over the Padres. is AL, all lean guardians.

I will lean mariners, but easily could be three AL East teams going to the divisional round. Those are my quick baseball picks. All my picks are posted on Action Network. Oh, I fire on soccer. I fire on just about everything. Seven and two in Champions League, by the way, this week. We're out of here.

Don't forget to subscribe rate review. Follow all things money line, Monaco, Alex Monaco on Twitter. Don't forget to hug your mothers. Tata real smooth. We get you out of here with an ad. Fan duel 2022 NFL, $1,000. No sweat first bet.

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Favorite bets for the upcoming games, you know. I'm already on it. Finns up, laces out there. I love the Ravens on a bounce back. If you want to go same game parlay, a little Sunday night, take a little J.K. Dobbins getting in the end zone. If you don't feel JK, go with Mark Andrews.

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