The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - NFL Week 7 Bets: Chiefs-49ers, Giants-Jags, Falcons-Bengals, Packers-Commanders

Episode Date: October 21, 2022

Alex Monaco shares his picks for Week 7 of the NFL season starting with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs vs Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers, Saquon Barkley and the 5-1 Giants taking on Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers looking to end their slump against Ron Rivera's Commanders. #Volume #Herd #ColinCowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I don't like my picks. I'm McDonald's. I love my picks. If you've been rocking with me, via the herd, unbelievable I-heart radio and all things podcast network, via in partnership with the volume sports network, you've been aware.

I have hit five or six weeks, positive, which isn't the easiest thing to do. But we come off a brutal week last week. We bounce back the next sleep. I told you I know my recovering in and out. LA Charger team being a San Diego kid. I know the AFC West backwards and forwards. That's two straight Monday nights.

I have virtually swept the board in AFC West primetime football. Gave you the Raiders with the points over the Chiefs, gave you the Broncos plus four, middle it with the chargers, took the under Echler got in the end zone. We're faced it over here. And it's why we can't shave the beer. But as we know, in betting, it's all about what you do next. Let's get on our Belichick. We're on to Cincinnati.

That is one of the games I'm discussing. Don't forget to subscribe rate review goes a long way. All picks on Action Network, all social media on Money Line, Monaco, Alex Monaco on Twitter. All right. Five picks. We're going to dive in here. I want to start with the marquee matchup of the Chiefs and the Niners. We're going to pump the brakes for a second.

I got to make you wait one pick before we dive into the number one. we're going to dance with a little old school Dougie P going against the Giants like it's 2018. Hi, how are you? Jacksonville hosting. Not your neighborhood New York Giants people. You're five and one already surpassed last year's win totals. Hide your kids.

Hide your wife, New York Giants. No one can figure out this code. No one. Even in New York where I live. live what is happening with New York football. All three, all three teams from the state above 500. And cooking hasn't happened since the OOs. We digress.

Jacksonville comes in. And we took him last week against the Colts. Killed us. Still claim it was the right side if you watched it, went backwards and forwards all game. They come in three and oh all time versus the New York football giants at home. Giants, the only team in the NFL that has never one of, a road game against the once upon a time expansion team Jacksonville Jaguars D. Jones,

as I like to call Woody from Toy Story. He comes in of 70% 70% back-to-back games for the first time in his career. But you know what? Don't look at the stats, even though I will read you the discrepancy between these two teams. don't even look at box scores because you're going to lose your mind because there is no conceivable reason for the New York Giants to be five and one right now. At the most, I fancy them a three and three club. They are playing with house money on so many levels.

It is going to come back at some point. The books are hardly, hardly this incorrect. They had the over under for the giants at seven and a half before the season. They already have five wins. but here's what I want to get at and what I want to point out. Don't look at the two and four Jacksonville record versus the five and one giants because the average person will say, I'll go Gman all day. I'll take the three.

The Jaguars own a plus 24 points four versus points against point differential. It's sixth best in the league just to put it in the layman's terms for you. The Jacksonville Jaguars are sixth in the NFL. points four versus points against, despite a two and four record. matter of fact, it's the best point differential for two and four teams since the 2010 San Diego superchargers. Now another bright spot for Lawrence going against a very good Indianapolis Colts team, a defense that I fancy is better than yes, an unbelievably scheme defense with wink at the helm,

but not a talent wise better defense than the Colts. And Lawrence goes 20 at 22 against him. 90.9 completion percentage, junkest player to ever do that? And again, I told you don't get hung up on the stats, but if you want to go there, the Jags average more points, more yards, more passing yards.

They have a better third down percentage. They have seven interceptions to the Giants one. That's what's fascinating. You watch that Ravens game. Another collapse for Baltimore who's winning most of the game. A fumble, you're up, and Lamar fumbles the ball. The other thing worth mentioning in this game is Jacksonville's been on the road for forever. Fave, I mean, my goodness, they have not played, all but two games.

One of them was a home opener at home in a month and a half. They get nestled in for a three-game homestand, which I also like. Let's remind ourselves what Jacksonville's defense has done because Danny Dimes comes in. I haven't refreshed my Madden roster. I'm too busy, but I imagine he's in 80. at the absolute most. Bull cut Jim Carrey, dumb and dumber,

Lloyd Christmas, Woody from Toy Story, Danny Nichols, Danny Pennies and occasional Danny Dimes is coming in against a Jags D that made Herbert,

Herbie Hancock, Justin Herbert, J.H, go 55% completion percentage and throw a pick. They made Matt Ryan throw three interceptions

with 34 QBR almost thought about retiring to go hang out with his family. That's how bad he performed. At a 53% completion percentage against this Jags D. Jalen Hertz didn't throw a touchdown against this Jacksonville D.

That went up 14, nothing on him. They'll pick, by the way, first half against the undefeated Eagles. Mills, not worth talking about, but for what it's worth, that unwatchable Texans game didn't throw a touchdown either. Only whence and last week Matt Ryan in utter desperation, 10 games to prep, did they perform quarterback-wise well against this Jags? D.

As Jags D, I believe, is already ahead of the curve at two and four. And I believe is going to cause Daniel Jones some disarray. And they've been a pretty serviceable rush defense to this point. Can they stop a number one running team? I think they can hold them at bay. And to me, we have a more talented team. We get a home team. normally a team that's winless at another place doesn't hold that much merit,

much different rosters, completely different period of time. But in the state of Florida, Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville, you will watch teams go down there and go scuba Steve under. They go down. And there's no explanation half the time. Rogers has had awful outings in Florida. We've seen it in Jacksonville. We've seen it.

in Tampa. We saw what happened to Buffalo. They're gasping for air that cramping like me. They don't stretch their hamstrings. They can't play 60 minutes. Jacksonville is in Miami. I'm just saying Florida is a heck of a place to try to go win a football game. I got the Jacks minus three. Next stop. I'm making you wait again. Chiefs Niners is pick three. Pick two right now. And this is as unglamorous as me on a side. Monday morning off a 12-hour Saturday sports betting bender. Washington commanders plus five and a half at home FedEx Field. Taylor, Heineke, Ouch, Ouch, out your run, my Heineke,

who comes in for an injured wents and is the sole reason I'm taking this team, There was Wentz. I backed them over the bears. And it was, it was more painful than reading the dictionary for pleasure. That's how painful it was taking the commanders. But here's the thing. Riverboat Ronnie Rivera is excited about this.

Low-key, high-key. Wentz is a turnover machine. He's dysfunctional. And for some reason, the pockets just collapse on number 11. But Taylor Heineke, he comes in. he started 16 games for this team. This is a backup quarterback, but he's got real

game experience. 20, talks, 15 interceptions. But I did go to the board. I went, I went to go see where the money is. And the money is overwhelmingly on the commanders to cover. I'm not saying they're going to beat the Packers. I'm saying they're going to cover. This Washington defense, believe it or not, is peskier than you think. Number one, one team in the least amount of broken tackles. I used that stat last week against the commanders and look against the bears. And that came down to one yard. It wasn't a catch at the one, but it came down to one yard for him tackling. Yes, it still matters, just like defense in the NBA. You just don't see it a lot. Then you add the element in of what Washington gets to inherit on their

field from a Green Bay offense perspective. And I did a deep dive on this Green Bay offense offense, because I got futures on Green Bay and I am flabbergasted. In their last six quarters of offense, in their last six quarters, versus the Jets, 0, 3,7, and zero, versus the giants in the second half, zero points in a safety.

So their last six quarters of offense, the most points they had in a quarter was seven. They had three trolling at the beer pong goose eggs. They had a defense of safety in a bay. be back. Mason Crosby field goal. Here's where it gets even worse. What is LaFleur doing, Globo, Jim Pete?

Matt, whatever your name is, you're killing me average, Joe. Aaron Jones had nine carries on 19 yards. He's had 13 carries on 63 yards in the previous game against the Giants. That's 24 carries in two games for a pro bowler, getting 12 touches on average. They've only carried the ball 40 times

in two weeks. They cannot move the ball in the air. Aaron Rogers has had his worst number since he was at Cal and he had good numbers at Cal. And the Packers in first halves. First halves. I'm not seeing any urgency.

And then defensively, defensively, coming off a New York Jets embarrassment at Lambo, you give up 14 in the third and 10 in the fourth? Go look at the numbers. These teams are very down the middle statistically.

points four points against. This is a number play. Sometimes when you get backup quarterbacks, like the saints, they come in, they cover certain games they shouldn't have. Like they covered if you got them at three and a half. I didn't. I took many at minus two and a half and on the money line in the London game, but there's certain numbers you want to play. This is a number you want to play. It's backed up by pros versus Joe's Washington.

Aye, aye, captain, plus five and a half. All right. Now we get to the chiefs. The chiefs are minus two and a half at San Francisco. The whole world's on Kansas City. And you know what? I've said this on the pod multiple times before. And I will dance again the same sentiment.

I don't care that I'm on the public side for this one. I really don't. There's certain games I do. Kansas City. Public was on Kansas City down in Tampa. What happened? A 41 piece. A hurt your grown man feelings, 41.

piece. Yes, I know San Francisco's defense. They come in 14.8 points per game, but did you see the game that I simply didn't take free money from? The Atlanta Falcons plus five and a half last week, six and a half, excuse me, at home against the Niners. I mean, that was embarrassing. Embarrassing for the San Francisco 49ers. I mean, honestly, you come in. What kind of game playing? I'm fading the Packers because I don't believe in the game plan to this point. And I'm fading the Niners this weekend because you ran the ball. In a team that shouldn't be throwing the football more than 25 times a game, in my humble opinion, you run the ball seven times with your running back, Jeff Wilson, for 25 measly yards.

And you give Jimmy G. 41 attempts. What are you doing? What are you doing? That to me. I don't know what happened. Was it an overcompensation? Was it because of Jimmy G. Cursing out the play calling and the 11th

and embarrassing loss at Denver? I don't know, but all I know was the Niners scored in one quarter against the Falcons. What was the game plan? My guy? What was the game plan? Because you got to go against the number one offense in the NFL.

Clearing my throat, pun intended. 29.8 points per game they come in. Top four in passing, top five and overall yards. I know they've given up over 20 points defensively. Getting a shootout with Sir Patrick. Another nugget for your noggin. How many times has Patrick Mahomes lost two in a row?

I went back and look. I went to stump the Schwab.org. I went to ask Jeeves. I went to stat muse. No one could give me nothing. So I rolled up my sleeves like an adult and I went and got it myself. The answer is astonishing. Two times in three years and change.

Sir Patrick has lost two games in a row. And one of them was a Ravens 36, 35, shanap and lost and they lose a divisional game the next week. Didn't lose back to back at all last year one time in 2019. And then once I just alluded to in 2020. So you tell me, Patrick Mahomes off a loss or team that's allowing Jimmy Garapolo throw the ball 41 times. Last thing I'll say, the Niners defense is banged up, banged up.

I believe they were short six possibly seven starters on defense. No matter how good your defense is, no matter how good, Asala could be, a Ryans could be at scheme. In the last several years for San Fran, you cannot make up for seven defensive players out. They hope to get Bosa back. They hope. Because if they know, it's going to be a long day, in San Francisco.

Go grab yourself some Garidelli before you fly out after this. You're going to need some Globo Gym comfort food. We keep it pushing. Two picks left. We rapid fire. I'm going to take the Atlanta Falcons on the same narrative

with the five and a half on the road against Sinci. Again, a number I really like. 2814, embarrassing performance for San Francisco last week. This is the lone. team on Mount Rushmore. The number one team undefeated against the spread. The dirty birds. Three and O against the spread on the road. Third best rushing attack in the NFL 165 on the ground with who? Cornell Patterson, Marcus Marriota and a pack of Skittles with a side of another butters.

running back. You beat San Francisco out right. You come back, you cover backdoor against Tampa, you beat Cleveland. You handle Seattle in a ruckus environment. And this is about, again, a number, but not just the five and a half.

This is also about what the Bengals can or can't do offensively. I read this to you when I took the Ravens two weeks ago over the Bengals. I won the game money line. I lost it against the spread. They won 1917, three-point spread. Vegas is sick. Since 2020, the Bengals are 16 and 4, 16 and 4 when scoring 24 points or more. When they score 23 or fewer, 1 17 and 1. one, 17 and 1.

The trend continues this season in their three wins, 27 points or more. Dolphins, Jets. When they lose, cannot beat Cooper Rush, cannot beat Mitchie Truppiscuits. Mitchie Paloos a week one. 17 points, 20 points,

and 17 points in their three losses. Do they break? 24 points against this Falcons team. No, they do not. No, they do not because Atlanta stylistically. Watch the games. They slow it down. They run it down your throat. And Marcus Mariotta completed 90% of his passes last week. Him and T. Lawrence were taking two lads in all of the land that are 90% or more completion percentage a week prior. Efficiency and effectiveness and egoless football. It's kind of beautiful to watch. I will fade a Bengals team that again, and I heard this out there, Saints last week, fully healthy, Lattimore out, couple of key pieces out. Do they ball on the

Saints like that? I don't think so. They were down nine. They had to come back nine points down against the Saints with Andy Dalton. Shout out calling the Bay's water pistol. We'll take the points here on a number play and we wrap it up. I can't believe I'm picking two games in the AFC South. I can't, I can't not take it. I got to fade the Colts. I got to take the Titans at home off a by, rested, restored, refreshed, two weeks of prepare for a Colts team they just took down and have taken down

four straight times since 2020, Week 12. They have beaten the Indianapolis Colts with Philip Rivers, with Carson Wentz, with Matt Ryan. It doesn't matter, Jim. Indy comes in with a winning record at 103 points. It's the fewest points with a winning record in franchise history. They are the Kistanza opposite to the Jacksonville Jaguars. This team is not an above 500 club.

They have not run the football all season. Matt Ryan is, he's impressing us the last two weeks because honestly, I thought he was washed. But here's what this game comes down to. This game comes down to what Tennessee has done. this season so far and it's red zone efficiency. They lead the NFL. Anytime a team leads the NFL in something,

you need to seriously pay attention. The Tennessee Titans have a 92.3% red zone efficiency this season. 92.3. They have scored a touchdown. This is astonishing, Basil. They scored touchdown in 11 straight. trips, 11 straight trips, and the Bears can't score once. It's the longest streak this season.

The next streak even close to that is the Atlanta Falcons in the red zone. They've done five straight touchdowns. 11 straight 92. 92.3%. That's a field goal or a touchdown and then 11 straight putties. I also love that Derek Henry has rushed for no more yards versus any other team. in the league then against the Colts. 1159 yards against the Colts, the most person, any opponent,

franchise history, fourth most. But I love what the Titans do when they play winning football and it's really stick to their identity. And I go back, I look at the box score, I look at the stats, I watch the highlights, I really try to understand what happened in the Colts game,

and they just stuck to a script, a scripted first half, half game plan that got him up 2410 that gave Tanna Hill a 17 for 21, two tugs, no picks performance. And gave Derek Henry 22 for 114 and a tug on the ground and spread out three receptions, three receptions, four and four between your top four receivers. Matt Ryan in that Tennessee game at home, by the way, at Lucas Oil, an INT two fumbles, one lost, 20 for 42.

And JT went 20 rushes for 42 yards. We still don't know what his health is. The Titans have a top five rushing defense. There's only four teams ahead of them that hold teams under 100 yards per game on the ground through six weeks. The Titans are fifth. So what I'm telling you is I'm putting my money on a Titans team that is essentially going to have to have Matt Ryan beat him. And I do not trust Matt Ryan. I also love the spot.

And again, it's tough to beat a team twice. It's tough to be a team. Heck, five times in a row. But I love, I love the narrative that the Colts come in off to wins, feeling themselves. But the Titans who have their number come in. They come in in just a dominant streak here against the Colts. So that's how we wrap the pod, baby. Moneyline, Monaco. If this is not a winning week, I got to really, really go back to the lap because I feel superb about these picks.

Jags minus three over the giants. Falcons plus five and a half covering on the road against the Bengals. Commanders covering plus five and a half at home against the Packers. Niners catching an L. Chiefs covering minus two and a half on the road. And of course, last but not least, Titans, Jags, Falcons,

commanders. Chiefs. Jags minus 3, Chiefs minus 2 and a half, Washington plus 5 and a half, Thalcons plus 5 and a half, Titans minus 2 and a half. All picks on Action, Network,

sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco. It's always a pleasure. Go Padres by San Diego Padres this weekend. I will be in Philly. In attendance, because it's only the first time since 98 when I was in third grade, watching them in the NLCS.

No big deal. As always, don't forget to hug your mothers. Tata real smooth. Fandual out on the way out. Football season is heating up and now is a perfect time to download Fandu America's number one sportsbook because right now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win.

Just sign up with promo code Monaco. And upcoming NFL games, you already know what I like. Jacksonville dominates the G-Men, baby. humbles them. I have the chiefs going to San Fran and covering, should I say, the two and a half that is really, to me, a steal off a case he lost. And I just think these Packers team cannot figure it out. I got to take the commanders at five and a half on a pure number play at home. Vandal, there's so many reasons to love it. Tons of betting options for each game. You can combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with the same game. Parlay, live betting. You'll get

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