The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco -No Huddle Prop Bets for EVERY NFC Team

Episode Date: September 3, 2023

Alex Monaco lists bets for every team in the NFC ahead of the 2023 NFL season. Will Jalen Hurts repeat his rushing success? Are CeeDee Lamb and Saquon Barkley set to dominate the NFC East? And are the 49ers a lock to win the NFC West? #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. All right. Welcome to another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline Monaco. Alex Monaco joining you. My producer, Paul Ferrington, is on the ones and twos with me for this episode. We are going to do a little bit of a fire drill. We're calling it. Call it a Chris Berman, two-minute drill.

Call it a fire drill. Call it, I get to the line of scrimmage. Peyton Manning, Omaha. We're reading the coverage. We're reading and reacting. This is a prop show, but it is an unlawful. Unplanned prop show, meaning my producer, Paul, and feel free to chime in Paul here. You're going to throw me, and we're going NFC conference first.

We're going to do this twice on the Money Line Monaco Amp show. Please throw us a follow. A little comment if you are listening. Let us know you like them. You don't. I'm going to give liens. Not necessarily bets. I'm absolutely slamming.

But basically what we're going to do is we're going to go around the NFC globe. Paul's going to throw me a variation of options. Could be give me a NFC West wide receiver prop in which I got to go look through the Niners, the Seahawks, the Rams, the Cardinals, find a prop, talk it out, give a lien. Am I over? Am I under? Now, I'm kind of an oversk guy in the world of props if you've been listening to me the last couple weeks.

So I am very big on overs. I'll probably be giving liens on overs more than unders. But we're going to go around the NFC, not really. a rhyme or reason for how we're going to get to our destination. We're just going to talk out some props. And again, this is on the heels of my top 10 props. I love for this upcoming NFL season. I have broken it down on a nice little 10, 9, 8, 765, 4, 321 show.

Make sure to check that out on the Moneyline Monaco feed all things volume sports. This show much different, Paul, feel free to chime in here. I am, as you can co-sign on, underprepared, not underprepared, but I have no idea. I have no idea where you're going. I mean, I don't know. Is this like deal or no deal meets Wheel of Fortune? I mean, how would you even dress up what we're about to do here?

I think it is closer to deal or no deal because, frankly, I have no idea what I'm going to give you yet as well. We'll have to see how the board plays out. And when you say that you don't go under a lot, I think you mean you never go. You have what? Maybe one under the entire season? I don't think I ever go on. I think you have won.

Yeah, so I'm not anticipating too much. No, and I will say on a show like this where we have options, why would I go under? Why would I look for an under if you're giving me four teams in a division to try to find a running back or a wide receiver? I'm looking for over. So we can knock that out right there. But yes, this is going to be liens, not official plays. And it's going to be live research. We're going to test my words per minute on the keyboard.

we're going to test how fast I can read and react. You know, they call me Django with the rock. We'll see how it goes, how fast I can get to it. But let's say you're good. You say you're good. I doubt a little bit, but from what I hear, no one's faster on the keys on these apps than you are. So you ready? I'm ready, baby.

Let's dance. All right, let's start off. Give me a rookie prop bet in the NFC. Woo! Few good rookies. You gave me an easy one out the gate. appreciate that's this is in the communication majors department on campus you gave me a a calm 101 here class to walk into this is this is a nice juicy board of options for nfc rookies now

i'd be remiss if i didn't at least briefly glance over a little bit of what i just spoke on because again to think paul that on the the top 10 props i love that one of them's actually a rookie I got to at least mention it. I'll give you another one. But Bejan Robinson, and this move, this was at the beginning of the season, seven and a half rushing touchdowns, Paul. It's now moved to eight and a half,

and it's still juiced. This is a guy and we said it and I'll repeat myself, but that's fine. A third ranked all-time Texas Longhorn touchdown running back. Dude had 33 tugs in his career there and 18 in his last season. You look at this top three rushing team from last year.

I imagine they're going to use Cordero a lot more in a change of pace situation. Al Jiro will probably get swallowed up on the debt chart. But between Cordero, Al Jira, Marietta last year, you're looking at 8, 3, and 4. That's 15 rushing touchdowns between the three guys. And we're looking at a number of 8.5 with a PFF seventh ranked offensive line

led by Jake Matthews at the left tackle. I mean, you look at this heavy, this run heavy offense. and the investment in a running back, in a non-running back market in a past happy league, the Atlanta Falcons doubled down on what they did well. I just had to make mention of that. I love Bijan over eight and a half rushing touchdowns.

I think it's absolutely worth a sprinkle. But if we're talking overall upside here of a rookie to hit a prop, and it doesn't look great timing-wise, because he did bang up his wrist, But the Ohio State has been cranking out wide receivers. I mean, the fact that Garrett Wilson, Chris Oliva, and the Jigba were in the same wide receiver room, it almost makes me question C.J. Strap. Harrison, too, right? Morrison too, sure.

He's the face of the franchise now there in the Big Ten. But, you know, Jackson Smith sits at about $6.50 in a hook, petting where he's shot. And, you know, we talked this out, Paul, on the fantasy episode. And you got some sneaky value grabbing Gino Smith very late in your draft. And I don't think people know that for those listening. Gino Smith last year had the number one, number one of all full-time starters, not Mahomes, not Burrow, not Allen, not Herbert. Gino Smith had the most accurate deep ball of any quarterback.

Now, deep balls are 20 yards or more. Guy was hitting 47.6, 47.6 and 14 tugs on that thought. To me, with Metcalf and Lockett, Lockett Speed, Metcalf's unbelievable. It's almost Anquan Bolden-esque, but ad-for. four inches. Guys eating gummies for dinner and it's not costing his body. D.K. Meccaf. He does whatever

he wants. Physical specimen 101. Those two lads with a real Kenneth Walker backfield, I think it's going to open up opportunities for one guy specifically. And I do think it's Jackson Smith and the jigba and $6.50 and a hook for a guy that can

stretch the field for a guy that has very unique speed. And you've seen all pro historic wide receivers talk about this guy in different spots. I mean, let's not forget one season, 13 game output at the Ohio State, Paul, 95 receptions on 16.06 yards at a 16.9 yards per catch, that number being the most interesting one, almost 17 yards per catch. I believe only Quentin Johnston had a higher yards per catch. Then JSN coming into this wide receiver draft.

I love the upside here. This is a guy that is going off fantasy football draft boards. I'm going to give you Smith and the Jigba over 650 and a hook leaning over. How do you feel about that? I like that. I think that's pretty good. You convinced me 100% on B. Jean when you were going through the Falcons just a second ago. Chris Lindstrom, their right guard, the highest graded run blocker in all of football last season.

So you mentioned how good that offensive line. was in the run blocking game. It was really just dominant. But I like JSN, 650 in the hook. Yeah, you're right. Gino was fantastic. I'm a little concerned whether or not he can repeat his performance, especially early in the season.

He was much better than later. A lot of it was actually just luck-based. He threw more picks towards the end of the year. From the luck factor, there's these luck statistics out there. So I liked it. I like it. Are you ready for another one? Yeah, and I will say, tread lightly for those.

who may tell us, he did have a wrist surgery, but the way Pete Carroll spoke about him already back at practice, planning on playing against the Rams after surgery, he's healing like you were if you were 21 years old. Yeah, healing very quickly. Break your arm, I'm your right back. So he's dealing with a wrist injury. Decided to throw that out there real quick, but he's already back on the practice field. But I'm ready for another one, baby.

Let's dance. I do want to throw out one more piece of criteria for this, which we didn't exactly say in the beginning. and maybe we didn't even discuss beforehand. I can't remember. But I don't want any repeats, Monaco, no repeat teams. So Seahawks are now off the board. We're going to profit for everything.

Seahawks are off. Let me write it down. Seahawks are off off the board, baby. I love it. No more Seahawks. I'm so upset. I can't bet another Seahawk prop. Yes.

Oh, yes. That's tragic. All right, let's go to, let's go back to the NFC South now because you ripped off the Falcons with that Bejon prop there. four new starting quarterbacks with Derek Carr, Desmond Ritter, Bryce Young, and Baker Mayfield. Can you give me one prop bet for one of those quarterbacks? We could be passing yards if we want to get specific. Man, you just love you want to, you're being a great producer out the gate hall and you're plug in our previous episode.

Because to me, I have no idea about almost this entire group of four. The one guy I want to bet on is the adult in the room. room, the married guy with no background of question. No knock to our guy, Baker. Ritter, we have no idea. Bryce Young inherits a worst time of possession offense with three new dealing, Hearst, Miles Sanders pieces, plus a new coach, a lot of turnover there. Baker Mayfield could damn near be a band-aid out the first six weeks of the gate with Kyle

Trask waiting in the whim. I mean, have we even seen a O and an R for the word or on a depth chart for quarterbacks in the history of our lives? I haven't. So, you know, we know, you know I plug Bryce Young over out yarding C.J. Stroud on the prop episode. But I land on the lily pad of Derek Carr. And he sits at around 3,700 and a half passing yards. I believe Draft Kings has the best number as it's a little bit lower than fan duels. And, you know, this is a guy, Paul that threw for 4,000 yards, four years and a

a row prior to last. I mean, last year played 15 games hit 35, 22. Guy plays one more. He's absolutely suiting up. Fairly durable. Again, the only cause for concern I had on the prop episode of what I liked, what I was worried about was that he got in so many shootouts with the Raiders because they have such a lacklustre defense.

Now they got a top 10 defense and points against coming back with a couple of real, real pro bowlers. One maybe Hall of Famer in Cam Jordan. But I just love the change of scenery. I love that he's going dome the dome. He's gone over this number six of the nine years in his career. I just think he is Mr. 4,000 yard. And Olave Thomas, couple of tight ends.

You know, you heard me, I'm repeating myself here. A real running game with Jamal Williams and Kamara after three game suspension. I just think this dude is going to have himself a year. You know I love the Saints to win the South. I got a sprinkle to answer your question here. on Derek Carr in that NFC South for the quarterback. Cross the Saints off the board, baby. What do you think about it?

All right. Derek Carr, fourth lowest off target rate from 2017 through 2021. Last year, 12.7% ranked 25th out of 33 eligible quarterbacks. So you're right. He's been great throughout most of his career. Last year, Josh McDaniels has been a disaster before as a head coach. So we'll see if he can bounce back. I like it.

I like it. All right, let's move on. Two of the top five rushing quarterbacks last season were from the NFC East Monaco, Daniel Jones and Jalen Hertz. I would like a rushing quarterback prop for one of those two guys. Wow. All right. Well, look, we're doing live research as we speak. Jalen Hertz.

I cannot go with Woody from Toy Story. As you know, I call him Daniel Jones. when we got Jalen Hertz in the fold here. I'm looking at his number. I'm pulling it up right now. And again, this is pending where you shop. I'm looking at season numbers here for Jalen Hertz. And on a rushing side of things,

I mean, this is a guy for rushing yards is at 725 and a half. But I actually feel like the better bet if I, and again, these are liens. But the rushing. touchdown number. And it's minus 108 on the over, Paul. That of the half. Off a season career numbers across the board should have been the MVP if he stayed healthy. You know, he had 13 rushing touchdowns last year. 13 rushing touchdowns. But what's interesting is that his carries career high. I mean, they really made an emphasis to involve him in the run game. Now,

turnover at the running back position, very much so, completely different backfield. You can make a case. They now have DeAndre Swift and Rashad Penny back there. I believe only Kenneth Gainwell is someone in that rotation from last year's Super Bowl birth team. But I just, I know Daniel Jones is off career highs. But 13 rushing touchdowns. And again, the previous year, he had 10. So he would have lost on the hook there at 10 and a half. I think they're going to use Jalen Hertz in the run game just as much as last year.

You have the number one offensive line here. So am I going to go with the number one Offensive Line to Back over versus taking the New York Football Giants Offensive line? Absolutely no chance. Now you can make a case. Sequence the best decoy in the game.

That's a reason why DJ hit all of those overs on career highs last year running the ball. Daniel Jones is a sneaky athlete. But again, we go back to fantasy. I think about props a little bit in the fantasy world. It's Patrick Mahomes. And then Jaylen Urts is getting drafted.

second. That is because of his dual threat ability. I got a lien over 10 a half for Jalen Hertz, 11 cashes a ticket. Would you bet that? I would be hesitant to go in on that with you. It's a lot of rushing touchdowns. I thought you were actually going to go with Daniel Jones. I'm seeing his over under rushing yards at 575 and a half. Last year, he had 708. I know. That's true. That's very true. but you know Daniel Jones had a lot of breakaway runs last year breakaway runs remember the one he had unless that was two years ago I was two years I know exactly oh that was two years ago when he fell down right down the middle and he congratulations you played yourself that was hysterical I mean here's the thing

I mean I did I scrolled it real quick I looked at his four years of running the football and 708 compared to two 90s. last year, that year prior, and again, I was only 11 games played, so not a full sample size. But damn near slivered in half. I mean, 13 games, 14 games playing his other two, 279, 423. He's not a guy that you have to worry about necessarily killing you on the ground. He can do it. It's just, that's not his M-U.

I'm going to, I'm going to always lean a guy that literally is going to run read options. I'm not saying they're not going to. And Dable's an unbelievable coach. Great with the scheme. Top five you can make a case. I just, again, I'm taking the better athlete. Assume. No, I can't.

I can't. I'm going to let that one stand. I want some more star power, though. Now that we've mentioned Jalen Hertz, I'm addicted to this star power that you got going on here. Let's go with a receiver prop. The best receiver is left here. I would say in the NFC, we've got Justin Jefferson with the Vikings.

we have Cooper Cup with the Rams and CD Lamb with the Cowboys. Those three guys, who else would there be in the NFC? I guess he could say AJ Brown's up there, but D.K. Metcalf, they're off the board, so we can't bet them. Those three receivers, Jefferson, Cooper Cup, CD Lamb. I'd like one prop for just one of them. Your favorite prop for those three receivers. Well, you already know, and I'm not going to repeat myself. I'll cap myself.

I'll hit under of two and a half props from our top 10 favorites. from last episode. But you already know who is number two on my list. Second favorite prop in the game is Justin Jefferson over 1,400 and a half receiving yards. I mean, you have to absolutely take it. But answering your question specifically, you know, I like to do this. I don't always love it around an injury prone lad.

And you can make a case that Cooper Cup is injury prone in his career. But let's not forget what he did. in the Super Bowl year, the 2021 season, the Triple Crown himself, 1947 receiving yards on 145 receptions. Just six. And 16 touchdowns at 13.4 per average catch rate. And he sits right now at 1225 and a hook. I mean, 1226, again, I can't sit here and say win healthy with almost,

nobody to throw to. I mean, the Alan Robinson experiment fell on its face. The O'Dell Beckham injury ended it in L.A. for him. Stafford is an older guy. And again, you're seeing him on the Matt Stafford pod with his wife talking out how he can't connect with the young lads. It's like, dude, go watch Brady to get that right. But that aside, clearly, he's not connecting with anybody of younger. If you're hearing that on record, you have to sit here and think that Cooper Cup, when healthy, is going to be not only a security blanket, but a guy he leans on, banks on, and absolutely needs to be able to even move the football this season. I mean, the Rams are going to be a dumpster fire penned in a Christmas miracle. But 1225 and a hook, again, you and I are

fantasy nerds. We sit here and we see that Cooper Cup is still going ahead of C.D. Lamb in most of these drafts. And that is because we know that this dude, and even in a one off season, not saying moving forward, not saying for their career, but Cooper Cup, tip for tat, even against the beast that is Justin Jefferson, the best receiver in the league, you can make a case he could out yard anybody. any game, any given Pacino Sunday, 1947, I can't get it out of my noggin. And again, not saying that he is absolutely going to slam through this number. It's just a lean over CD on the thought of repeating from previous episodes,

JJ and cup. I got to give you Cooper over 1225 and a hook. Would you be comfortable betting that this season? The only concerns the injuries, as you mentioned. He's already a little banged up with the hamstring. I'm also concerned about Stafford getting injured again. So Cooper Cup bets, it's tough. Fantasy-wise, I'm hesitant to take him.

Really, no matter where I get him in the first round, I'd still take him anywhere from seven on for sure. But it's just a little bit of a risk. I thought you were actually going to go with receptions at 107. And a half, given 145 that he had back two seasons ago. That's where I thought you were going. Yeah, but I mean, it's tough because. he does, you look at his numbers in his career

from 2017 on and receptions granted again not a full healthy year last year, four years he's gone 75 or above, three of the last four, 90 or above. I got no doubt

he's got the volume. But, you know, every single one of his career, his years, Paul, he's gone double digits in yards per catch. I mean, you don't see that very often. So guys got some yak ability, catches from a guy who can make all the throws. Maybe he slams that number.

I just feel more comfortable with him playmaking once he gets the ball in his hand, i.e. going yards more than just actual volume. Okay. All right. I'm cool with that. I want to go over now. Let's go to the Bears. Let's go to the Chicago Bears.

Justin Fields is the most bet on play. in the NFL to win MVP next season. What's your favorite Justin Fields prop bet for this year? Again, you're just leaning one way or the other, so nothing locked in. But when you look at Justin Fields, there's a lot of hype. Will he take the leap forward in year three and become a superstar with a wide open NFC North, really a wide open NFC? How are you feeling about Justin Fields?

Yeah, it's an interesting thought because this is a guy that took such a leap, running the football. I am not touching any Justin Fields passing props this season. No chance. I'm going to need to be proven incorrect before I do that. Justin Fields passing numbers. 12 games, 15 games played first two of his career,

barely crack in 2200. I mean, no chance. For a guy after I just got done talking with Derek Carr, he's gone over 4,06 of the 9, damn near double the output. The reality is Justin Fields is a track star and Justin Fields, there's 40-yard dash speed

and then they're what they always compare Paul game speed and they use Jerry Rice as an example because I think Jerry Rice is like a 4-540 individual but then when you listen to DBs and people that tried to catch him, there was game speed. And Justin Fields to me has game speed.

Something you can't really always prepare for but some of his runs last year I mean, yeah, his longest run last year was a 67 yard to the house run. That's crazy that a quarterback ran for damn near seven tenths of a field. But 7.1 yards per carry. Now, I know that outlier of 67 ups that. Dude, and 160 carries as a quarterback. I mean, that's insanity.

Now, I don't know what they're going to be. I think David Montgomery is a sneak. I'm going to go a little bit off the rails here. David Montgomery is a sneaky potential fantasy running back there here. He's kind of taking that Jamal Williams role on, who led the league in 17 rushing touchdowns last year with a top two offensive line, top five returning this year with the Lions. How much did David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert last year add the open lanes and the truly

having to stay honest on the defensive side if you're stopping Jay Fields from running. That's my only concern here. But I'm looking right now. He's at 800 and a hook rushing yards for a guy that hit 1143. I mean, eight touchdowns is interesting. Let me take a quick look at his rushing touchdowns. It's at six and a half. It's juicy exact same over.

under on six and a half as well as total rushing yards. If I had to bank on one, man, I really like both. I guess I guess I'd go rushing yards just because, you know, you factor in two elements. A serious red zone threat in Montgomery and talking this out with you to steal tugs away from fields last year. but then you're adding a whole year, you know, Claypool is traded midseason.

Claypool and DJK Moore, how many touchdowns does that take away from fields rushing touchdowns? Maybe that's a wash when you compare it to Montgomery gone because Kaler Herbert is not a belcow back. But I got to go for a guy that flew over 300 and almost 50 yards more than this number that the book's hung. I got to go rushing yards here, over 800 and a hook. Which one would you feel more comfortable with? I think I like the rush.

yards. He's going to, regardless of how much more talent the Bears got with DJ more this offseason, I still think that a lot of this offense is going to bank on fields rushing abilities. The offensive line got better. It's not great. He'll still be scrambling. And a lot of times, he's at his best when he makes a play out of nothing. That's when you see a lot of those big yards that are big runs that he breaks out. So I like the 800 and a half a little bit more. It's a high number, but he shattered that last season. Absolutely shattered. Stattered it, man. I mean, dude, 160 carries.

We should go down off the mic and look at how many carries he had more than second string running backs. You got to think he'll break out a few big ones too and those chunk yards. When you're talking about 800 and a half, he has a 50 yard run there. You're really chomping into it a bit. So I'm cool with this one. I don't know if I bet it, but I like where you go. well real quick let me ask you as a as a viking beat reporter here of the volume network and knowing everything about this division backwards and forwards is not some of this

thinking that he's going against i'm sorry but i just don't trust the viking d i certainly don't trust the lion's deed like he gets to go against and the packers are mediocre at best is it not is it not thinking a little bit yeah i get what you're saying i think the viking Defense is probably by far the weakest one going into the season. The Lions revamp there's a lot. I know you're not sold on it, but they made a lot of really nice moves this offseason. The secondary is completely new. So maybe it'll take a little while to gel, but there's four new guys back there.

It's not the same unit. We can't look at them the same as last year. And even if we do, towards the end of the season, they were close to an average defense, the final 10 games when they started winning. Packers, probably the best in the division. The Bears, it's okay. of Fields won't have to go against them. So really, I'm not too down.

I'm not extremely down on the NFC North defenses the way I would have been last year because the Vikings and Lions were the two worse than the NFL. Now it's just the Vikings. So I'm not too inclined to give fields too much credit because of the division. If I were, though, it would be his passing yards props because the Vikings, yeah, like he could throw for 350 yards against. Everyone could. Mike White could.

that anyone who could throw a football could throw against them. All right. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, so Seahawks, Saints, Eagles, Rams, and Bears, lock them, cross them off. Yeah, so we've got five done so far. Let's, let me ask you a tight end question that will then lead in to the next bet I'm asking you for between T.J. Hawkinson, George Kittle, Darren Waller, and Kyle Pitts.

Which of those tight ends do you think we'll have the best season in 20, 23? Great question. This is where I'm going to be positive about your team. I think it is a perfect time to capitalize on a T.J. Hawkinson year. I do think ceiling-wise, Waller's got an interesting potential year ahead of him. Injuries are a little concern. And again, Kyle Pitts is the athlete of this group.

but Kyle Pitts, I mean, I don't even know what's going on. This dude was supposed to come out into the league out of a cannon. And all he's done is disappoint, at least in the fantasy world. So I'm not going to do that. And I also am not going to bet on Desmond Ritter to get him the football. No offense to Desmond Ritter. But, I mean, they're going to babysit him and they're going to run the ball down there in Atlanta. I want nothing to do with it.

I didn't draft Kyle Pitts in any of my four leagues. I think T.J. Hawkinson has to be the guy. I mean, T.J. Hawkinson just inked. And you tell me, did he not ink one of the biggest deals in the history of tight ends? I mean, I'm looking at it right now. Let's see. agrees to term on extension. Vikings to sign a historic deal for tight ends.

And look at what the general manager said. type of player we want in Minnesota. I'm really excited to get it done. He fits our culture. Wickley became one of cousins' top targets in that midseason trade. 60 receptions, 519, 3 tugs in 10 games due to two-time Pro Bowl. He was second among all tight ends last year with 86 receptions. And that was on two teams.

I mean, the fact that he was able to be inserted and worked immediately has to tell you a lot right there. Now, 26 years old, in his absolute physical prime, I play in a very expensive Vegas league where tight ends are ranked higher at one-a-half point. So tight ends go early. Guess who the third tight end is taken off the board this season after Kelsey and Mark Andrews? It's your boy, T.J. Ha. So I would absolutely sprinkle of any of those dudes on T.J. Hawkinson, Now, six touchdowns is over under five and a half. I don't love looking at how much he did not get in the end zone in the beginning of his career. It doesn't really look like one of those tight ends that finds the end zone a ton, at least looking back on it.

So I'd probably be a little more comfortable. Let's take a look here at his receiving yards. I just... I could see his receiving touchdowns going up a bit. Adam Thielen got a lot of targets in the red zone last year. He moves on. So Justin Jefferson will probably assume a lot of those. Jordan Asson's a little smaller.

I'm not sure. As good as a year I think he'll have. I'm not sure how much of a red zone threat he'll be. Now, maybe he is because Steeleon's also small, both great route runners. But Hawkinson, towards the end of the year, did start to get a lot more looks down inside the 20-yard line. I think back to the Giants game. Now, Colts two-point conversion. He had a lot of big catches down there. Yeah, good point. That's why we lean into your Vikings' expertise here.

But he, I would probably go receptions over any. I'm not seeing him on the reception board. So I do think that's an interesting point. Also, JJ doesn't get in the end zone a ton. We've talked that out. The E-Lan's gone, pretty good in-zone target. Dalvin's gone. So touchdowns need to obviously get sprinkled to new numbers this season in Minnesota and an excellent high-powered offense. I mean, I guess you can convince me to go over over five and a half on the Tuddies. I think that might be safer.

I mean, 700 plus receiving yards here, 750 and a hook to be exact for a guy that has not gone over that number ever. that's that's that's that's that's high praise at the sports book you could almost you could almost make the case maybe they they're putting that there for some sort of strategic reason to think that that's low when in all actuality it's high i mean i would lean receptions it's not there so i'll go touch stamps i'll all trust your eyeballs and take over five and a half tugs i don't love it. But again, you don't sign a historic deal with someone and he thinks not going to get looks. So his numbers are, I imagine, going to match what the money was. So I expect him to have

a career year. I'll go over five and a half tugs here for your boy T. Ha. Yeah, I think I like that a little more as well. What was the yardage number you said again? Seven 50. 750 and a hook. And, you know, his highest year was 2020 and Detroit was seven, 23. I'm looking at three, six, 7, 583, 395, 519. But again, I did misread that because that's split with seven games in Detroit and 10 games in Minnesota. So 395 plus 519 does get you over at 914. So that's interesting that he did take that leap.

But prior to that, had not gone over that number in his three other seasons in Detroit. Yeah, I think I lean the touchdowns with you there. So you got T.J. Hawkinson for the Vikings. Okay, let's continue this. Let's see. What do I want to give you now? All right, we'll get a great job, by the way. Great job as.

Thank you. Thank you. We'll get a little crazy here. The lions and the Panthers look like they're the only big cat teams here out of the NFC teams we have between. and Jared Goff and Bryce Young both have pressure on them in different ways. One's the number one pick. We'll see how he adjusts to the league.

Jared Goff, we know Detroit's the favorite to win the NFC North. They've never won the NFC North, Monaco. 1993 was the last division title of the Lions have. It was the NFC Central. It's been 30 years since the Lions have a division title. Actually, let's just go with the Lions. Let's just go. We'll stay in the NFC North.

Jared Goff, is there any prop for him that you're liking this? season. If you can't find a golf one, I'd like to hear Amon Ross St. Brown, his number one target. So between that connection, what you got for me? Wow. I am pretty high on Jared Gough this season, Paul. I mean, this is a guy that again, and I'm repeating myself a little bit from the NFC North episode, but this is a guy that could have crumbled after his ex went on to a better marriage. I mean, literally, you get snubbed. You're the number one guy, number one guy in the draft. you overwhelm, you underperform, you don't do enough of a job. Well done to be kept.

One, two, three, five seasons. They gave him on the ramps before they called it. That's a lot of time in today is 20, 23 attention span, especially in the NFL where, you know, Mark Sinchez has said it best. You know, they used to babysit guys getting drafted into the league. And him coming in that USC to New York, thrust it into the Lions, then pun intended here. That was an anomaly back then.

Now it's like you get drafted first round. You're in and you got to figure it out year one or you're on your Colt McCoy. I'm looking at Jerry Goff's career year last year. Career year, Paul, 29 tugs, seven interceptions. Now, two trains at the hot here. Career high in touchdowns. Excuse me, career second best career year in touchdowns. He had 32, 2018.

29 on the tug market. He's sitting at 24 and a half. I'm looking at this lion's offense. I can't possibly imagine they repeat on the ground the numbers they did last year. I mean, for golf to get 29 tugs and Jamal Williams to have 17, and there was still some for Swift to eat off of, that's a lot of running game touchdowns to lower Goff from easily. having a 30 touchdown year.

I got two trains of thought here. I'll throw it to you for your two cents. I love over 24 and a half, juiced at minus 136. I think 25 touchdowns is a more than fair number. Again, he's got real assets on that offense. But he's also taken fairly good care of the football in his last two seasons since he's gotten to Detroit, only 15 interceptions in two seasons. This is a guy that had a 16 interception, 2019, a 13.

13 interception 20. Could we make the case that under 10.5 interceptions for J.G. is a better bet than over 24 and a half Tuddies. What say you? I think you can. I think this lion's offense is going to be really good next season. But 24 and a half, man, he had a good year last year. And they do bring in Jemir Gibbs now, David Montgomery as well.

I like the under interceptions, but actually I'm going to go back on it. I'll go over 24 and a half touchdowns. A lot of people expect to jump from the Lions offense. They'll get James and Williams back around week seven, I believe. I think Amun Ross St. Brown is going to have a great season as well. If Jared Goff continues on the trajectory that he's been on, especially those final 10 games, he should get to close to 30 touchdown. So 24 and a half does feel a little low to me.

Yeah, I don't, I can't sit here and want to bet an interception prop. So I would, I would lean over touchdowns. Way more fun to root for offense than root against. That's where my brain started going. As I was like, yeah, I guess we go interceptions, but you could have slip up games here or there. Look, whenever he plays the Vikings defense, just go over on yards. That's, that's an easy way to win bets, period, in the NFL this year.

Absolutely. So yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm with you on, I'm with you on JG over 24 and a half, baby. Let's dance. Okay. This one, this one gets very specific. In fact, it's just an individual bet. And I don't think you'll ever see this one coming. So a little bit of research will have to be done here. James Connor. Oh, God. James Connor. No, I have a very specific bet. So this is really just which way you lean on it, period. I did not start my morning. I'm I did not storm my NFL morning and think we'd be talking about James Conner, one of the worst. For me, draft picks in the history of my fantasy football career, one of the worst. Yeah, I kept him. He came on at the end of last season. All right, dude, I don't want to hear.

I hate the Arizona Cardinals. I hate it. We have, we're hitting every team. We have, we have to hit the car. I know, I know. I know. Can I not try to give you upside on Hollywood Brown? you really got to have me talk to James Conner.

No, no, I want your boy James Connor here. Wow, this is a crazy one. All right. James Connor, 120 plus rush yards. And any regular season game is plus 100 currently on draft kings. What do you think about that? He did it. He hit 120 once against the Chargers last year.

The next closest game was 85 yards against the Patriots on Monday night football. which way do you lean i know you haven't given this much thought can you get what you know what i'm doing i'm typing in pf and i'm looking at how bad this offensive line is and i have already passed halfway through the league and i do not see Arizona cardinals i am now passing 20 in the 20s looking for the Arizona cardinals i am now passing 25th on the league Arizona Cardinals per PFF. Oh my gosh. They're the second worst, second worst ranked line per PFF down seven from last year.

Rookie Paris Johnson Jr., the only hope for humanity in the Arizona Cardinal world this year. I mean, honestly, I can't believe they snubble. McCoy like that. No, dude, I'm swiping left on this. I want nothing to do with James Connor going. You said over 125, 125. 125. 120, 120, I believe in one game. 120 in one game. 120 plus any regular season game. He had it once last year. And he hit 120 against my chargers last year, one of the worst run Ds from last year. And he had to have 25 carries.

That's the thing here, Paul. He only had over 20 carries one time last year. Let's look at the Cardinals' depth chart here to see who could potentially take away. Oh, man, I'm starting to look at some of these bets we can have going forward. I think we're going to have some fun over the next 20 minutes here. Keante Ingram and the Mercado. I'm saying no, man. I'm saying no.

I'm sorry. I got. I'm sorry my guy, J.C. But 31st offensive rank line didn't even get over 20 carries more than twice. I'm out. I'm under it. I'm under it. The Arizona Cardinals, if you could, remember the movie Click with Sandler?

Fast forward. It could just go ahead and do us all a favor and fast forward through 14 losses to save us all red zone bandwidth. Do us all a favor, Arizona. You're screwing. bud that backed you. And it's a great sports town. I went there for the Super Bowl. We were there.

I mean, come on. Great Sports Town. All time snub for this Cardinals team that used to have Kurt, two gloves Warner with Larry Fitz at the helm, tackling James Harrison in a Super Bowl at the one. I mean, what are we doing? What are we doing in Arizona?

I do not contest that they have a plan. I am off James Connor. Oh, I can tell you the plan. You know what's funny? Your boy hit the over on unders. The over was set at half. 0.5. Will Monaco go one under on the program?

And you just teed me up for an under. Scuba Steve under for James Connor. Thank God we don't have to talk to Cardinals anymore. Oh, we know the plan, though, in Arizona. It's Caleb Williams. He's playing on Saturdays right now. That's the plan for the Arizona Cardinals. Okay.

Let's see here. I want to go. I want to stick, you know, I think Sean's still listening, our boss. And Sean knows that nothing gets ratings up like talking Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the show. Sean's going to hate this. Okay. The Buccaneers, regular season division wins, is at two and a half right now. That's the line.

over is plus 100 under minus 130 they have the saints twice the falcons twice and the panthers twice are they winning three of those games monaco oh my god call 1-800 progressive insurance for this one man i mean goodness gracious there's six and a half total wins depending where you shop and two and a half in the division. I'm trying to pull off. I'm trying to look up. Here's Sean. I just changed the channel.

He's had enough. You know, he's really big on the Falcons this year. I know what their number is in Atlanta for division. We will have to ping Sean. I do want to get Sean on talking some hot takes with us. So I do, I do want to see his rationale on.

And Collins talked about it on the herd too. I'm almost perplexed at eight and a half wins. I'm not saying the offense can't hum. I don't understand what's going on defensively down there. I don't. Panthers, excuse me, bucks, eight and nine, five and four at home. I'm trying to see what they did in the division last year. You know what?

The Saints own them. So I expect them going 0-2 against the Saints. I mean, the Saints owned them when Brady was rocking. driving the pirate ship. I'm going to go under, man. I'm going to go under. I think this is the worst team in the division. I think Baker's in the booth,

as per Collins thought by the end of the season. I'm rooting for Baker. I actually hope I'm wrong. But worst run game in the league, worst run game in the league, playoff Lenny, somewhere in Del Boca Vista. I mean, I just,

who the hell knows how much a Hall of Fame or greatest of all time was holding that ship together. Pirates of the Caribbean five down there, I'm changing the channel with Sean. I'm going under two and a half. Okay. So you are out on the Buccaneers.

You have the Saints winning the division, correct? All day, baby. All day. Okay. So let's knock out one more team in the NFC South here. If you have the Saints winning the division, you can bet on the top two in the NFC South. Saints and Falcons plus 145 or.

Saints and Panthers plus 2.15. Oh, man. You know what? We've already inked it. I have to, I have to, unfortunately, be pro Falcons here for this. I just hate their defense on so many levels. I pray Callais Campbell's got a little juice left in that, in that unbelievable tank of his.

I'm going to go, I'm going to go Saints and Falcons. The value's nice on Saints and Panthers. There's so much turnover in Carolina. We don't even know what Sanders and Chuba are going to do. I just, I think this, you got a top three running game from last year with, again, a double down on what they do well. I like someone doing what no one else is doing, whether it's the NBA, whether it's the NFL, et cetera. The Falcons are doubling down on what they do well. Carolina doesn't have an identity yet.

At least Atlanta has an identity. I bet on that despite the defense of woes. I'll go Saints and Falcons for the less value, but probably the correct non-emotional purchase. Okay. I like that. I think that's the right call. Panthers also have a tough schedule.

And Bryce Young coming out of rookie season, like you said earlier, not a lot of weapons for him. I think Adam Thielan actually could be a nice fantasy steal for some people. He'll get a lot of red zone looks like I was saying last year he did. Okay, so you got the Saints and the Falcons there. Let's go over. I want to find something with the Dallas.

We're working our way, by the way. We got, let's see, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. Okay, we got, we only got six teams left, baby. Yeah, and I'd like to hit on the Dallas Cowboys now. Wow. I love, I love, real quick. I just love for Vikings, Paul, strategically, could be subconsciously, not giving any face time to the Green Bay Packers on the program.

We're 50 minutes in here and we have no mention of the Green Bay Pass. And we've hit the entire NFC North. And we've hit the entire NFC North. We did. I have not said the team. You haven't said a bad word? That's a bad word in Minnesota. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Oh, no, yeah, we don't know. By the way, as Minnesota, someone with some dental hygienist was telling me not to completely go off the rails here. There's something called Minnesota Nice. Have you heard this? There is Minnesota Nice. Yes. What does that mean?

That means if you're not born and raised there that they don't, they're not all inclusive with you. Like you're kind of on the outskirts of the cul-de-sac, so to speak. Is that what that means? Well, I don't know. We could have someone correct this if we're wrong. I'm sure someone will. But Minnesota nice, I thought, was just that people from Minnesota are genuinely nice people. Oh, see, I thought it was a little L.

I thought I heard. And again, you got to be so compliant when you're in the dentist chair. You're not dissing. I'm not Larry David on a curb episode. You can't really talk back. Yeah. No chance. But yeah, she was saying she was from this woman was from Wisconsin where everybody is nice.

And she lived in Minnesota and Minnesota. I actually even said she even said she babysat Berluson's kids a little bit there. And so she was sort of in the football world. She's like, yeah, I knew two neighbors on my cul-de-sac. We lived there for 11 years. Then she told me what Minnesota nice was. So who knows? We could Google us.

I'm just curious. John may know more than us. A cultural stereotype applied to the behavior of people from Minnesota and occasionally Wisconsin, implying residents are unusually courteous, reserved, and mild-mannered compared to people from other states. So there you go. So how would you- How would you interpret? So how would you interpret?

Unusually courteous research. Yeah, yeah. Not just nice. Unusually nice. So then she actually gave me the Kistans opposite. that it is that they're overly nice. Because again, I went to the Sky Mall of America. I was in Minnesota, freezing my, you know what off for a week in the Super Bowl week.

I remember that was the week I'll never forget. We're in a mall. And it was when Alex Smith got traded to Washington and it was time for Patrick Mahomes to insert himself. That's how long been going to radio rows. And I remember Mahomes walking around this tiny little radio row. I'm going, wow, this Patrick Mahomes guy is the talk of the Super Bowl week. And that was my experience in Minnesota. I got to be honest, people could not have been nicer.

So I would say that my experience there was not hers, but you know, good to do a little research on the show here, a little side pop cultures we hop back in. All right. You know what? Let's just rip the Band-Aid off. Well, let's just let's get to the Packers here. While we're on, while we're on the Minnesota, Wisconsin topic, Jordan loves the new quarterback there. Some people think he's going to be the next hallfamer. Some people think, like myself, he's going to bust.

Or maybe I just hope he's going to bust. I can't deal with another 15 years of dominance. It's absurd. Jordan Love, can you find me a prop on Jordan Love over under? Let's go yardage if you happen to like that one. Jordan Love passing yards. It's 3300. It's 3,300 and a hub.

And now look, I know I'm putting you in a tough spot because we have nothing to work off of. this is completely based on your expectations for him. So walk me through that. What are you expecting from a Jordan love this year and which way would you lean on the passing? First thing I do is even though it was Rogers last year, I do want to go back and see how their passing offense was with the two new weapons, Dobbs and Watkins, and see how that turnover was. The guy that Aaron Rogers did not take to Applebee's to hang out at all last year with, unlike

going Galivan all over Broadway. and 42nd Street with Garrett Wilson, Lazard and the boys. So they sat on the passing chart, fascinatingly, right in the middle of the pack, I can't even fathom that Aaron Rogers was throwing 213 pass yards at game. Now we go do the math equation of the 3,300 divided by 17.

That lands on a lily pad of 194 a game. Am I sitting here doing quick math saying that two 13 number was it 216 through 13 that 213 number minus 194 that's a that's a 19 yard

discrepancy from Jordan Love just doing 19 yards less per game to hit over that number that this one you know where my maniac mind goes real quick I'm saying there's a lot of numbers being thrown around right now

yeah probably makes no sense what I'm doing but I'm just seeing where Rogers was per game last year versus the number that the shops hung. They're asking him to get about 194, 195 comfortably a game. I, I,

they, I mean, if they had one running back and not two, I really thought you were going to team me up for Aaron or AJ. I have them both pulled up. 825 and a hook for Aaron Jones and 625 and a hook for AJ Dylan.

I'm not, I would go under again. I'm really, you're really hitting the prop bet of the Monaco unders here on the show because I'm an over sky. I got to go under. I think a lot of babysitting goes on. We've watched a little bit of preseason with Jordan Love tape. I'm not saying he doesn't have the ability to make special throws. I don't see them.

I see him under a very choreographed orchestrated offensive game plan and really, really hammering. those two guys in the backfield to try to move the chains more so than him stretching the ball. Now, Watson has a playmaking ability. I like this Reed guy. I'm going to go under, man. I don't think Jordan Love comes out the gate and blows anybody out of the water on the stats sheet. I think he can go out and manage games, win time of possession, win fuel possession, and run to run some more.

I got to go under, man. I see a lot of PA rollouts, a lot of curl around. routes. A lot of if you're playing a really good player in Madden, you don't want to roll out, stretch the field, try to hit a deep post with the risk of a turnover. I think they're going to be safe with him. A little house arrest, if you will. Don't go too far out of the neighborhood, Jordan, love. We don't want to get in trouble. I got to go on under. What say you? And you, that number was 3,300 and a half that you're getting? I believe it was 30. he's yes 3,300 and a hug let me double check because I got off the screen. Yeah. Okay, 3,300 and the hook. You know,

not a big number. It's not a big number. Yeah, I can see him actually. This, this is what really sucks. It's, and Sean says Minnesota nice means you're a little too nice,

like to the point you're okay with getting screwed or taking advantage of. Wow. So I look at, wow. My dentist trying to make. me swipe left on the Midwest. Everyone just wants to meet a nice person from the Midwest, whether it's a mate or a friend. I mean, that's how I've always believed. Midwest is right there with the South, nicest of nice people. So that's good to know. Appreciate the clear up. Yeah. And it's,

you know, someone who's out west for a little while, my sister in Wisconsin, she always says, people out West are nice, but not kind. And people on the east are kind, but not nice. Meaning like, on the east coast someone will hold the door open for you but they'll be like hurry along come on come on come on but out west and in the midwest they'll hold the door to be nice but they really you know they they aren't too kind at heart you know that makes sense because i got i got a new york dad in l a mom and our family saying it's it's not ours originated of course but it's like in new york they say screw you they really mean have a nice day in l.a they say have a nice day they really mean screw you now Exactly.

To me, I'm New York numb. I came in San Diego nice and pleasant in New York, saying hi to people, making eye contact. Now I'm Snickers-hungry when I get on the subway. I'm all business on the streets, pedestrian. I mean,

all I got left in my athleticism is Barry Sanders walking moves in these streets. So I think to your sister's points, you spot on with that. But we'll still co-sign that, the Midwest, the nicest part of the country as far as, manners, but back to Jay Love, I still go under. I still want to go under.

I'm going to go over. I'm going to go over. We got a little bet off on the program. Let's go. Look, I'm not going to bet on it because I don't want to root for Jordan Love, but if I had to pick from what I've seen from his limited time in regular season games, preseason, I know it's just preseason, but he has attributes that you like. He's six foot four. He can move well. throws, he put speed on the ball. Like I'm starting to kind of come around on Joy and Love,

not to be a Hall of Famer like his predecessors, but I do like him to have a good year. I can see him coming in at about 3,500. So that 33 and a hook, I would go over, unfortunately. If it's under, great, great. But I'm going to go with you. Speaking of unders, I should have gone under in Yankees Tigers

because the Yankees have no runs through seven here, back to football. Unbelievable. What else is new? What else is new? Okay. Oh, I like this one here. Okay.

NFC East. We've done the Eagles, but I don't think any Eagles should really come into play here. Rushing Yards leader for the NFC East in 2023. Saquan Barkley is plus 150. Tony Pollard is plus 160. And Brian Robinson, Jr. of the commanders, is plus 550. We could go on from there, but this hurts is plus 700.

So we go down. of those three guys, I'm assuming you're not going to take Brian Robinson, Jr. So Barclay or Pollard to lead the NFC East and rushing yards. Again, Barclay plus 150, Pollard plus 160. That is shocking the upside they see in Pollard. Pollard is is not a bell cow back. Am I back in the biggest thighs in the history of the running back position or am I back in a guy that broke his damn near thigh in a playoff game against the nine.

I mean, Tony Pollard, when it comes of durability, I'm not saying Sequin is an injury prone. We've seen him get banged up. And yes, only caveat would be that you're running behind a significantly better offensive line in Dallas. I think Deuce Fawn is interesting as a change of pace back. Again, they're going to pass the ball a lot more than they have in the past. And Zeke, believe it or not, a relatively productive touchdown year last year.

But, I mean, career highs across the board. for Sequin, at least as far as output. I mean, to think that he got 2195 carries last year, Paul, career high, finally stayed healthy, 16 games played, over 1,300 yards. And not since his 2018 rookie year, has he gone over 1,300. Really only had one other 1,000 yards season, 4.4 on the ground, 10 putty, 68-yard longest run, second longest of his career. I just, you got to go, Sequin, take the best running back,

take the Belcal back here. and they, this has to be mentioned. They signed him to a one year tender. There's no security blanket. He has to go out and put his best thigh forward again. But I'm going with Seekwon. I'm shocked that it's almost a pickum between him and Pollard. I mean, what am I missing there?

I don't think you're missing anything. I like Seacuan a lot to leave the NFC East and rushing yards. And Pollard, too, what I want to see as we continue on during the season, I know you love Deuce Fawn, probably more than most people. But will they work more people in. Zero of my leagues too. I'm in zero my league. I'm salt. Well, Pollard's a little smaller.

I'll probably do a lot of past catching work too. Will he be able to take on that load? I'd imagine he can as the number one running back. But we haven't seen it before. Here's a thing, Paul. I'm looking at right now. Paul had one game, one game and went to overtime over 20 carries. One game.

Single carry dude almost more often than double digit carries. You have his yardage in that game? 22 carries 115 yards, 5.2 per. I mean, when he gets the ball, he makes a lot happen with it. He does, he does. But again, let's not forget, this is a guy that got to a feast like a WR2 like Dillon in some in some example here because JJ, I.E. Seek, was the RB1 and he came in as the change of paceback. It's a lot different when you're not the

understudy on Broadway and it's all eyes on you. Shout out, uh, not Marissa Tomey. Who's the woman? Bet Midler, Seinfeld episode. Excellent episode, by the way. The understudy. Okay. Let's, uh, we got a couple more teams here. Left. We have the 49ers, I believe, still. The Cowboys, the Commanders, and the Panthers. So four left. I mean, this number jumps out at me. Sam Howell plus 10,000 to lead the league in passing yards. I'm just kidding.

I would like to stay on the commanders, though. Is there a particular player, Terry McLaren, I know he's dealing with an injury right now. If you were inclined to bet on someone on the commanders right now, would it be McLaren? Are you leaning more towards how probably? Oh, it's McCoran today, tomorrow, and the next day. I got a embarrassing stat for the commanders. So McClurent's off the books because of the injury, but he was at 900 receiving yards and a hook,

minus 112 on the over. I have it here from earlier this summer. And you look at his four years in the league, 919, 11, 18, 1053, 1191, with who even thrown on him the football. So the guy is like D. Hop, lower version, because he's not as much of a playmaker as D. Hop, but D. Hop in Houston, doesn't matter who's throwing to him. He's going to get the ball. Got to make mention that the enemy on the play

calling helm has got to add value there. And, you know, you watched a little bit of it. I think it was first stringers, first, third stringers in that Ravens streak that they ended, in that fun little Maryland rivalry over there between Washington, not in Maryland, but, you know, I mean, that area of the country. This commander's offense is inept. I got it right here. They were seventh and D in points allowed and third in yards against. 26th overall in turnover ratio.

The Washington franchise, three team names since 2012, they have not gone over. Really, really hear this. They have not had a top. 10 offense since 2012 in points or yards and never ranked higher than 23rd under Ronnie Rivera. I mean, talk about three blind mice on the offense aside. The only person I want to bet on and the only person I want to draft from the Washington commanders is scary, Terry. I'm going with Terry all day.

Feel very good about over 900. So let me ask you this real quick. Terry McLaurin to record eight plus, so eight or more regular season games with 75 or more receiving yards, sits at minus 110 right now. I'm looking last season, it looks like he did it, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven times. And he came extremely close with 73 yards once, 74 yards once, and 70. So he very easily could have had that number up to 10.

Do you like that a little bit? If you like him to skyrocket past 900 yards receiving on the year, let's assume he, let's pretend he's healthy. At minus 110, is that worth a sprinkle? Maybe. I think I think Johan Dotson steps up a little more. I don't know. I'd be a little more comfortable with taking almost over 300 yards of the number we're

getting this year from last year with 1191 than I am. I mean, I'm looking at some of these games. and you just have to remind yourself, it's the Washington offense. I mean, that lost to Dallas in October, 15 yards receiving, it's at a 25-yard receiving game, 55. I mean, sometimes they just fall off a cliff on offense. I actually kind of believe in how I've kind of changed my tune with the commanders a little bit. I think there's value in over six and a half wins.

Don't expect them to do anything crazy. But again, if they can stay healthy on D, they've been drafting serviceably on defense for quite a while. Chase Youngstown, I'm no favors with the health. But I'd probably still still steer clear of that number just because it looks like it could go either way. Again, I do like Howell's upside, but I would just go over 900. Okay.

So you got Terry McLaurin over 900 in the hook, right? And the hook receiving yards? Yes. Yes, sir. That may change with the injury, but yeah, that's what it was. We'll see what happens there. Okay. this one seems pretty straightforward to me.

The San Francisco 49ers to win four and a half division games over four and a half is plus 135 right now. I'm looking at the NSC West Monaco and I see the Rams with the worst defense in football, the Cardinals with the worst team in football and a Seahawks team that really didn't play with them at all last season. that feels like a five and one record is very doable in San Francisco in the NFC West. What do you say about that? Oh, man. I mean, let's just do this pick quick like Will Ferrell Kegstan and old school baby. 10 and O is a home favorite last year, including the playoffs.

Did not lose a game in the division. Six and oh, first time, Shanahan swept the division. Griffin Door Sweep, pick a Harry Potter house. I got to go. Over, over, over, five and one, Seattle steals one. That's it. Sweep the Rams, sweep cards, split with the Pete Carroll bubble gum chewing Seahawks, five and one in the division, slamming them to win the NFC West.

I don't buy for a second that this team is not winning the West. Seahawks can be a wildcard team again. Cute story. Forget about it. I love that. All right, let's go to the Panthers. We have the Panthers and the Cowboys left. Let's do Carolina first.

It's got to be on Bryce Young here. I'm taking a look at different bets we have on Bryce. Over 3,200 and a hook passing yards. That's on the board here. Let's look at the Carolina win total for this season as well. That's coming in at seven and a half. What do you think of those two? 3,200 and a hook passing yards to Bryce Young,

seven and a half win total for Carolina. Yeah, I think, I think eight and nine is, is realistic. I again, I'm, I'm pausing on that. I'd go with the Bryce Young passing yards. I said that stat in that, I forget which episode might have been the NFC South episode about how only Andrew Luck has gone over the seven win total for number one overall quarterbacks drafted. And that includes five quarterbacks, a couple of,

them being T. Law, Murray, Winston, et cetera. So I am worried about that. A lot of turnover, too. I do believe in Frank Reich as a quarterback whisper. You know, we talked it out a little bit on the top 10 prop episodes. And the thing that I love with Draft Kings is that they have those head-to-head bets. So I love that head-to-head bet of Bryce Young to out yard C.J. Stroud at minus 120. But I mean, 28th in the passing department at 190 per last year. Not great. 16th ranked O-line per PFF last year. I mean, 80 tugs in his passing career, 48 and 3,300. To me, you can't be more prep for the league than being a quarterback in the SEC. Now again, he did have the top tier talent across the board. But a special guy. I mean, to come in as a

a freshman and start. I mean, how many quarterbacks in the history of Alabama and Nick Sabin situations have had that. So I'm not going to go against the grain and against history with that first overall draft pick getting the eight win margin. I'm more comfortable with Bryce hitting over that number. And again, off a 190 pass yard per game, they get a little bit more stable.

I do like a couple of these pieces that he's thrown to. I think Thielen could be an excellent security blanket. I'm going to go over on the passing yards for Bryce Young. I actually feel relatively good about it. What say you? Yeah, I think I'm okay with that. Off the top of my head, 3200. Yeah, I can see him coming in around that.

I got closer to maybe 3,500, 3,400, 3,400. So I'm with you there. I think Thielen will be big for him, a nice security blanket. Like you said, DJ Chark will need to step up. Jonathan Mingo has a rookie coming in. He could be someone to take the top off the defense. fence. Yeah, I'm okay with 3200. It's not going to be a great year in Carolina. I'd actually go under on the seven and a half. I think they come in at about six wins this year. It's not a

great season, but they're one of those teams that'll improve for 2024. Okay, we have one more team left. That's the Dallas Cowboys. And real quick, before we get to them, I just saw this. Last but not least. I did see on their most improved team for this year, then you might be interest in this. The Chicago Bears are plus 2.10. From 3 and 14 last year to division winners, in your opinion, that could be something that you might want to take a look at Monaco and anyone else who's bullish on the bears for whatever crazy reason. You're bullish on the bears. And of course, I just have to mention 17 and 0 Perfection Vikings plus 20,000. Could be worth a little sprinkle. Okay. Yeah, I know. I'm sorry. I had to get that in there.

Division specials, let's go to the NFC East receiving leaders. To lead the NFC East and receiving yards, CD Lamb is plus 160. I'm looking at AJ Brown and Devante Smith is the biggest threats. I know you like McLaurin, but McLaurin is much more likely to come in about 1,000 to 1,100 than to have an explosive year and go 13-1400, like Lamb. could do and probably should this year. Do you like that bet, that value of plus 160 for Lamb to lead the NFC East? Absolutely.

Top four offense, number one, Cowboys Red Zone offense, 71 and some change on TD conversion from last year. I know Kellamore's gone. This is a process of elimination bet. You have one in one A in Philly. I mean, Devante Smith is not much of a drop off from A.J. Brown. at AJ Brown last year. He did have a monstrous year. But 145 targets again with all the weapons they have in Philly.

You know, you look at the Dallas receiving room. We'll see how Cook sticks. But, you know, they were so comfortable moving off of Amari Cooper the year before last, knowing that CD was going to come in and be the one. and 156 targets, over 100 receptions last year. He goes up, damn near 30 receptions from the year prior, a couple hundred more yards. His average has been 12.6 per catch minimum. I mean, you can go tit for tat, AJ Brown and CD, but the reality is one team has

too much better one two punch at wide receiver in Philly than we're sitting here staring at in Dallas, not to mention Dalton Schultz is gone and Dalton Schultz ate a lot last year. I think out the gate CD gets enough of a lead in this category with the combo of Terry hurting his ankle.

There's foot. Obviously, no one in the Madden 77 and below wide receiver room for the New York Giants is going to make this conversation. I would have to take the value here and the plus money at CD. Again, you know I took him in our fantasy draft episode. Number

one and 10 overall. He is going a little bit before AJ Brown and most mocks. I got to go process of elimination, ABCD Lamb to close up the pot. Okay. Okay. And not only is Dalton Schultz gone from Dallas, but Dallas Goddard is now healthy in Philadelphia. So that's another target for Jalen Hertz and another person to take away targets potentially from AJ Brown, who will still definitely get his fair share. Last year he had, it looks like, about 140 more receiving yards than CD, which is kind of crazy because

I mean, AJ Brown was fourth in the league in receiving yards last year. I don't think a lot of people would realize that off the top of their head. It's just a fantastic season in his debut with Philly. But I like for the exact reasons you said, I'm with you on CD. I have him in fantasy as well.

Yeah, and just out of curiosity, I did throw up Cooper's numbers out last year. He did play 15 games. games in 2021. You know, the fact that CD was able to put up the numbers he did the last year, Cooper was there and still get 79 receptions on 120 targets, comparatively to 68 receptions and 104 targets for Cooper. I mean, it's just a second year of CD Lamb being the guy.

And the way Michael Irvin talks about him, Shout out on Disputed, Richard Sherm on the Volume Pot Network, killing it. It's just only a handful of guys that been number 88 there. He is that guy. And I think he takes another leap. I got to take that plus money value all day with CD. And is this just the match race, in your opinion, between Brown and CD? Because Devante Smith quietly had 1,200 yards last year.

I know. I know. I think it's just splitting the numbers there with Philly and the two wide receivers. I'll take one guy again. This is a race to the most yards. It's like, how do you not say to your point, which is a great thought with Goddard healthier this year, that they're not going to be a little more balance with spreading the wealth.

And in Dallas, Zieg gone, Schultz gone, Gallup injury prone, Cook's working his way in. I got to go with the clear cut number one probably volume player here as far as targets. and overall receptions here with lamb. Got it. Okay. Yeah, four of the top 10 receiving yards leaders in the NFL last year

from the NFC East and Brown, Lamb, Smith and McLaren. Watch Jalen Hyatt come out of nowhere for the Giants. Daniel Jolns. He dropped 6,000 yards. I know. I did see him swoopo dell's number.

Big Motsabal, Jerry. Big Mok. Okay. So, Monaco, I can run through these real quick. It was, we were all over the place,

but that was a lot of fun. In the NFC North, you have, Hawkinson over five and a half touchdowns. Packers, Jordan Love under 33 and a half passing yards. Lyons, Jared Goff, 24 and a half touchdowns. You're on the over. Justin Fields over 800 and a half rushing yards.

Yep. Pretty good there in the NFC North. 49ers over four and a half wins in the NFC West. Is that potentially your best bet of this entire thing? Man, I mean, I'm looking at all of our bets. I don't know how that's not a slam dunk. I mean, unless Purdy hits a true sophomore slump or he's got a serious pitching injury and might not be the same guy, again, that's just a team that can win without a name at

quarterback. And you can't say that about more than three teams in this league, barely more than two. So yeah, it might be my favorite bet. Then we have Jackson Smith and Jigba way back in the beginning, over 650 and a half receiving yards, Cooper Cup, 12. 25 and a hook. You're on the over. We'll see if he and Matthew Stafford can stay healthy. Cardinals, you said emphatically no on James Connor having it one game with 120 or more rushing yards. In the NFC East, Sequin to lead the division in rushing, CD to lead the NFC East in receiving

yards. Jalen Hertz rush touchdowns over 10 and a half. McLaurin, we're still not sure what's happening. But last we saw was 900 in a hook receiving yards. You're also on the over. And then to everyone's favorite, the NFC South, Derek Carr, 37 and a half passing, or 3,700 and a half passing yards over Falcons, you said, Saints and Falcons to finish 1-2, Bryce Young, over 3,200 in the hook for passing yards, and the Bucks under 2.5 division wins. What a show. What a show. Great job. Co-piloting that. Enjoyable. I mean, we hit, what, no commercials on Netflix four Seinfeld episodes right there. I mean, if you're not having fun with this stuff, then you don't like sports gambling.

I mean, that was so much fun. I had a blast. And we get to do it again for the AFC. Yep. Yep. We get to run it back. Run it back. Hey, appreciate Paul.

Paul Ferranton show. Moneyline Monaco. Alex Monaco for our boss, Sean, on AMP. Don't forget to follow us rate review goes a long way. NFC prop shop, fire drill. all reading and reacting on props that was not planned. I had no idea what's happening. We did a pretty good job.

Gotta be honest. Fly, shoot from the hip right there. And we got AFSC on deck. So make sure you check us out for the next show, doing the same thing on the much more compelling conference. All myself, don't forget the huggy mothers.

See you. The volume.