The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Top 12 QBs Nos. 7-12: Dak & Tua crack the list, is Lamar Jackson underrated?

Episode Date: August 29, 2023

Alex Monaco ranks quarterbacks 12-7 in the NFL and shares his best bet for each signal caller. How high on the list are Dallas Cowboys' star Dak Prescott and the Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa? Is Monaco underrating the Ravens' Lamar Jackson with his ranking? #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. All right, we are back on another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline Monaco. Alex Monaco here. Fired up to be with you live on AMP, volume sports podcast, wherever you get them. It is almost that time. Ladies and gentlemen, how about Sam Hartman and the Notre Dame fighting Irish over the weekend? Just hammering, dismantling the 20 and a half Navy sports. spread, my goodness gracious, those enormous college football spreads.

Not the world we live in full time. Shout out the snaps for covering all things, ones and twos on college football. Those big numbers can get your attention. Just be careful because 20 and a half points seems like nothing. And they're covering it by halftime. Next thing you know, you tilt it on a Saturday morning. But today's episode,

we go all in on the NFL as we do here in the end of the month of August. I want to talk out a little twofold, if you will. We're ranking quarterbacks one through 12. We're working at 12 all the way down to one the next 48 hours. And we're talking how bets we can apply these two. We've talked about rookie quarterbacks. We're talking about rookie skill position players. We haven't fully dove in on where we're at with the top shelf leaders of these

respective franchises. So the 1 through 12 quarterback breakdown, the hierarchy. You could do it by tiers. you could do it just straight shot. I'm going straight shot. We're going to work our way back to six packs of butt-heavy. Six quarterbacks, two Fs, six bets a pop. We're starting out at 12.

And, you know, 7 through 12 is interesting. One through six is interesting. Everyone seems to have Patty at number one. But I'll lead up to who I got for tomorrow. We're going to start out all the way back at the, and there is no such thing as a MySpace top 12. But I came from the MySpace top eight era. So we're almost to it.

But let's get in to my 12th biggest quarterback, best quarterback in the league and where I'm at with him. Betwise, Mr. Ace Ventura laces out then. Tula in the building coming in on my list at number 12. He sits at 25 and a half passing touchdowns this season. And we know about Tua's last year. It was a not fully healthy season out of very dramatic head injury, not something to take lightly. And I believe the dolphins eventually got it right.

I don't think they handled it correctly out the gate. But there is that loom. So one thing with these quarterbacks specifically, if they're coming in off of any huge injury, and now we're talking shoulders up, you want to definitely put that in the back of your mind because if you go chips all in on one of these player props, which I never recommend, you just have to be careful.

So, this was a team that was one and three without him last. year. But at the end of the day, it was a very productive season for two. He comes off a 25 touchdown, eight interception, over 3,500 yard season. And I, I rank him 12 for a couple of reasons. Now, he is shocked up as a game manager. But let's not forget, this dude stretched the field last year a lot more than we otherwise would have envisioned. This was a guy who ended up in a top four passing offense only behind Patty, Tom Brady, and Justin Herbert, as far as output. And that number's a little deflated because they didn't have him playing all 17.

Now, he sits at 25 and a half touchdowns right now at minus 116 juice on Fandul. And I got a hard time feeling like we can't hit that number. He's coming off a year where you just see it so much. many times like clockwork in the NFL. It's situational and its timing such as life with these quarterbacks and these humble windows. He comes into a defensive-minded Brian Flores Club. I mean, you look at those 2020 numbers and he's damn near babysitting the offense.

11 tugs five picks his first year. Now, again, numbers starts all different. but slowly but surely we've watched this guy go from 11 to 16 to 25 touchdowns. This is exactly the growth you want at the quarterback position. Higher QBR, higher yards per game. And his decision making is relatively fundamentally sound. I mean, he had a 2021 year where he had 10 interceptions, but there is something to say about this Mike McDaniel Noggin.

He is the brainchild. and one of the protgues of Shanahan. And you look at the success of people that have been in the Shanahan coaching tree and you can't sit here and say that they have swung and missed. They've swung and succeeded and landed and stayed. Now, NFL head coaching league is all about waiting for the phone to ring to get fired. I get it.

But at the moment, you have the fastest one, two wide receivers, which has to be factored into this bet in the history of the league. No one's been faster. and Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle at the 1-2. You look at this running game. They may end up trading for Jonathan Taylor. They may not. But it's a serviceable backfield that emulates what San Francisco did.

All setting up running to pass. Two has been excellent in PA rollouts, excellent in his progressions. And this is really mostly to me for this bet to hit about health. Because McDaniel's going to put him in spots to spread the field. and throw the rock. And I'm looking at 25 and a half tugs and I love it. Now, I did on a previous episode, make mention that there isn't interesting futures bet out there

that could be somewhat appetizing if you want a value play. And I'm looking at Tua's last year and you're getting almost plus 250 if he goes eight games or more of 300 passing yards. Now, this is another thought that just gives a little bit of momentum to Tua. He only had seven games in his entire career with 300 plus passing yards. And four of them were last year. So four games out of 13 that he played were over 300 yards passing, that's appetized. For him to get about half the games, you know, there's 17 now.

So eight, eight and a half is the even number. Eight games over 300 passing. You're sitting at plus 225. But I love the moment. men, him coming in, Ryan Clark's a buddy. So I think if anything, he added fuel to the fire. Again, Tua is quarterback yield, to quote Colin, he does everything correct. And now you're looking at, not going to say the night and day difference,

but a big discrepancy from my vantage point, from a defensive-minded coach and defensive-minded team to an offensive. It's also worth mentioning that this Dolphins defense isn't something to snub at. and you look at the moves that they've made, and what they needed to do was get better on the turnover differential side of things. They're not getting enough takeaways. They're giving the ball away too much, even though Tua is taking care of the rock,

but it's more of the lack of takeaways. It were minus seven last year in that category. That's got to change. I think it starts with offensive awareness, but all things considered, top four passing offense with one of one, speed in a in a team that otherwise got better across the board. The Ramsey injury hurts.

But I think tool when it's all said and done ends up getting a bag, ends up making water out of a 10 and 7 club and making himself in the playoff, making his team get to the playoffs and hitting this number of 26 touchdowns. I just don't think it is that difficult of a decision over or under. guy had 25 touchdowns with four less games. And he's sitting at 25 and a half. This should be great.

Number 11 on my list comes in. And this, our objects in mirror are not as they appear. Because this man, you wouldn't want to sit here and otherwise think this is almost a top 10 quarterback in the league. But Jared Goff, ladies and gentlemen, comes on my list at number 11. And he sits at over 24 and a half passing touchdown. touchdowns this year. And I sit here and I think about this lion's offense. And again, this lion's offense did everything last year.

I reminded you already where they were on the pecking order of offense versus defensive stats when we broke down the NFC North. This division has almost no defense. And we look directly at Dan Campbell's Detroit Lions when we say that. But what did they have on their side? all season. They had a Benny Johnson run offense with a top two offensive ranked line last year per PFF, and they weathered through a storm,

a lion's 28th ranked opponents points per game on D and 32nd ranked, they almost give up 400 yards of offense per game. They were fifth in points per game at 26.6 and fourth in overall yards at 3.8. Ladies and gentlemen, they're sitting in over nine and a half wins for appropriate reasons. Now, completely different backfield. Jamal Williams gone, Swift, gone. Jamir Gibbs in, David Montgomery in. But all things considered, similar and same weapons on offense,

goth has loved his tight end, his entire career. I'm watching Hawkinson go top four, top four rounds. And I'm on St. Brown. I'm on Ross A. Brown going seventh, eighth, ninth overall in fantasy. That has to be a little blues clue as to where Jared Gough lies in the confidence, not just the fantasy world, but where he lies, you take that, you couple it with the nine and a half wins. You're sitting here at 24 and a half over under gear on Fanduel,

depending where you shop, it's minus 136. And you start going, Jared Gough, season by season. And this is another thing. Jared Goff had a terrible, terrible start as far as his career. Jared Goff came in, correct me if I'm wrong, into a hard-knock situation. He also dealt with a change from St. Louis to L.A. has to inherit all that. And he's got Jeff Fisher as a defensive-minded coach.

Jeff Fisher was outed out of the league, top shelf mustache. top shelf vibes and he couldn't get it right in this football league. So then you start to see him with McVeigh. I mean, that 2018 year he had 32 tugs, 12 interceptions. You look at the difference from a defensive coach again to an offensive coach. But Goff sits here with weapons with a top five play caller in this league, of my humble opinion, with continuity coming back. And you look at these lions weapons coupled with this projection.

and Jared Goff had his best season last year. And I said this in the NFC North episode. You cannot cap this in sports betting, but in football and in basketball. Team sports, yes, but player motivation, again, I forget who said it in the world of sports, but there's so many soft-minded players, just less dog than we've ever seen.

particularly in football, that if you can get a guy who's mentally tough to lock in, it's like three, four, five times the Pokemon HP. They become a Charzart overnight in a bunch of Charmeli, Charmielion land. This Jared Goff mindset after his ex won a Super Bowl, it's to give a colonism. It's like getting, you thought you were locked in for life with a girl.

She dumps you. You're already engaged. Then she goes on, gets engaged, gets married. The very next year is posting all over Instagram and a ring comes in and a ring doesn't get taken off. That is the football version of what happened to Jared Gough in Los Angeles with the Rams. He could have sat there, sold, been breaking wedding crashes rule number six, drawing attention to himself in a negative wave in every which way. Go to his social media.

You don't hear anything about it. He is locked in. He is, I've actually met him. He's a very quarterbackial, as Colin would say, individual. He does a lot right in that regard. And he comes back. And he has a career year, a career high in touchdowns, 29. And a career low, ties his career low in interceptions with seven.

Now, 4,438 yards for this man is not something to snub at. I considered flirting with his passing yards over. But 25 touchdowns for this, dude. I mean, he's got a lot on his side on the offensive, on the offensive side of the ball. He cannot understate the protection this man has for so long at the beginning of that ram sitch. He did not have time.

Jared Goff and McVeigh and him would work this way. It would almost be Madden-esque. he's calling the plays in his head, and there's something to be said about that kind of training, that kind of coaching, and then going to another team with that knowledge. Sean McVeigh was a special, special offensive mind behind Gough.

I think he upped his trajectory immensely. And then he goes to a Lions team that is one of the most dysfunctional franchises in the history of team sports, and at least in the last 20, 30 years. And he starts out one in six. and again doesn't panic. I mean, off the Super Bowl roster that he was removed from, L, and the 1 in 6 start, he goes out,

he ends with a playoff run, a playoff berth, and a winning season, and then 29 touchdown outing. We got to take over 25 and a half. It is worth the juice. Number 10 on the list. Have to do it here, people. Dak Prescott. Tray Lances now starting quarterback on the depth chart.

Big news over the weekend. Interesting moves. But Doc Prescott again comes in. And I think we're getting a very tasty number. Now, you look at this Cowboys team. And it's a 26 and a half passing touchdown number for Dak Prescott. And I'm going to seem very overs in this episode. but Dak Prescott has so much working for him going into this year.

The only thing he can mess up is trying to play above the rim, so to speak. But he's gone over. Now, now, seven-year career, he's only gone over 26 and a half twice. Probably would have went over it in 2020 and 2022 if he didn't get hurt. Banged up, dude. 2020 played five games through for nine tugs. 2022, only played 12 games through for 23. But you have to remind yourself,

the Cowboys offense was top four last year. In overall scoring, they put up just a tick less than the Chiefs and the bills. We're talking the big dogs in this league. And I've beaten this stat over your noggin. The Cowboys had the number one red zone touchdown percentage. last year. 71.43% to be specific. He also led the league in interceptions. I don't love that. But he is not afraid to stretch the field.

He is not afraid to take a shot. And last year's weapons, you know, they're coming off the Amari Cooper experiment. They got CD going from a two to a one. Gallup banged up again. Zeeke on his whole 17 of his career. Now he's on 18 in New England. A lot, even though there was stability, still a lot of moving parts. But I know you know that this defense is top tier. Top tier sensational. I've said it many at times. Number one in takeaways, almost two per game, six and points allowed.

The only thing that scares me on this number of going over 26 and a half passing touchdowns and Dak being the 10th best quarterback in the league, per my opinion, is he doesn't need to go out and light up the scoreboard with this defense. Michael Parsons, second and defensive player of the year, again. We know about Trayvon Diggs locked in now for the future with Stefan Gilmore. But the front seven and this offensive line, he just has to weather the storms. My honest takeaway from Dak was actually take a step back from trying to hit, hit the driver. 330 yards.

Just hit the ball 275 and straight. Just stay on the fairway to set up a birdie shot to put you on with a shot to get one under or par every hole. That's all that DAC has to do this season. Now, McCarthy in charge of play calling. We'll see how it all shakes out. Kellen Moore gone definitely matters. We're not sitting here and not saying that the number one red zone team last

year with Kellan Moore now in L.A. with Herbert doesn't matter. That matters. But the other train of thought with this bet is that Tony Pollard is now in the running back spot that Zeeke has carried. Zique doesn't get enough credit. Zique was a bell cow back. Zique could carry a lot of what was in early Dax years, a relatively balanced offense. Tony Pollard has his first season over a thousand rushing yards last year. He went over by seven yards. He got banged up. His leg breaks in a playoff game against San Francisco. You have that element. Deuce Fawn. I like them. But you don't have, to me, a super solidified running game at least out the September gate. I think you're going to need to rely on number four quite a bit. Number four is proven

in his career that he can light up a scoreboard. Number four is proven. Number four is proven. that he can do damage if he needs to take over the game. But this is a guy, you know, you look at his touchdowns over his career, and they're very close. They're hovering almost every year around 26 and a half. Now, 37 touchdowns the year he got paid, 2021. We already know what he's capable of. 37 touchdowns on a 4,449 yard year should be positive.

if you're pressing over. But to me, I think more is on Dax shoulders this year, although he should take a game manager approach. It's not to say that he's not going to be asked to go out and win games. I just high octane offense, top offensive line to protect him. He's going to stay healthy. I'm very confident in that. This Dallas Cowboys team has the ability to be special this season.

I like him over 26 and a half. Coming in at the ninth quarterback. on the list here. It's Kirk Cousins, baby. Kirk, non-prime time, but everyone's favorite dad on Netflix, Cousins. Shout on my guy, Paul, and his Vikings.

Kirk Cousins, however you want to slice it, however you want to voluntarily tuck in the shirt and dice it, is a top 10 quarterback in this league, my friends. Top 10. Matter of fact, he's ninth. Matter of fact, you can make a case. He's eight.

Kirk Cousins, again, off a 29 touchdown year, off an over 4,500 yard year, off such a dysfunctional defense in Minnesota. I don't even know where to begin, but Kurt Cousins won eight games by one score. Kurt Cousins was a breath of constant, Don't worry about it. Kurt Cousins got it.

He's like the reliable friend that'll pick you up from the airport before Uber. He's the reliable drunk driving friend that will not sip on any sauce if he gives you his word. He gives you his word. He's locked in.

And I think this Minnesota Vikings team at over plus two, I think it's plus 250 plus 260 a roundish, but over two to one on a payout to win the north is probably the correct non-emotional bet. I'm going for broke, taking the bears.

They should be the best team in the league in the division line this year. 29 a half touchdown for Mr. Non-Prime time. I think he's got the ability to do it. Now, his career in Minnesota specifically, all things prior to the commanders, guys gone over this number every year but once. Oh, excuse me, the hook would be last year, 29 a half. He would have gone under it by a hook. He had 26 one year, but he's had three seasons of over 30 touchdowns or more.

Now, don't love the 14 career I&Ts last year. Little non-Kirk cousins-esque, but we know about this Minnesota offense. And I am concerned, I'm not sitting here saying I'm not with Dalvin gone, feeling gone. I think Jordan Addison is probably the best upside of any of these rookie wide receivers situationally with the combination of a pass happy offense with turnover at the running back position. and Justin Jefferson on the other side of the ball demanding two men cover him at damn near all times. Kurt Cousin's going to cook this year, ladies and gentlemen. If they do not make the playoffs, I expect them to. If they do not win the division, they should.

This man's hitting over 29 a half. They don't have the defense. They don't have the luxury to get in what I just spoke on with Dak and the Cowboys. They have to cook on offense. They have to put up serious numbers. and you go back last year and outside of some of the biggest names and quarterbacks in this league, Minnesota was right there averaging just a tick under 25 points per game. And the passing on this team, top six in the league.

He's going to move the rock. He's going to get points. I'm not worried about it. To me, it's dealer's choice. I think over 42, 75 and a hook on Fandle of minus 112 over or under, I'm confident in Kirk going over. I think, if anything, 4275, I mean, you look at his last three years,

4265, 42221, 45, 47, he's right, right there. He's never out of a game. Thank you, Jeff Saturday on a Sunday. He can light up the scoreboard. I know I'm sounding like Mr. Overs over here. I love Kirk Cousins. Over 29 a half. Two left.

Trevor Lawrence is eight. As much as I want to put Trevor Lawrence ahead of Lamar Jackson, it's a little bit of high school cafeteria seniority here. I want to see Trevor Lawrence do it again. But what Trevor Lawrence did last year, going from a three-win Urban Meyer now Netflix Star Club and turning this puppy around, I mean,

impressive, underrated, everything you want to call, T-law, Nick Wright, the prince that was promised, you got to give them. credit. You have to give him the nod. He turned a dysfunctional, otherwise embarrassing franchise, except for lightning in a bottle one year and back to the Fred Taylor Byron left, which I think they had one playoff win type moment. This Jacksonville Jaguars team has been a W for other NFL teams in this league and nothing more. But Trevor Lawrence, who adds a weapon, adds a weapon with Calvin Ridley sits right now at 25 and a half touchdowns.

This man's going over 30 easily. Honestly, in my opinion, he is going to be, and he's not going to be an MVP this year, not going to be necessarily in the top three, top five MVP discussion. Ladies and gentlemen, 2021 under dysfunction, under Urban Checked Out Meyer. Guy had more interceptions than touchdowns. The second quarterback whisper to Frank Reich in that Philadelphia Eagles quarterback room was Dougie Peterson. Guy goes from 12 thugs to 25, from 17 picks down to 8, from 3641 to 4,113 yards. This guy's not in his fourth season, not in his fifth.

He's not Kirk Cousins, Dak, Jared Gough. This dude's a pup still. he is so impressive, so fundamentally sound when he is given time. And to me, he's got every gift you could be given at this position. And again, we know in this league, Colin makes an excellent point. Lottie's quarterbacks come from non-number one overall from high school to college throughout to the league. this dude is the Peyton Manning of this generation. As far as being that guy that's been number one throughout his entire run from high school on.

And now he's flipped around a three-win organization to nine. You add in Calvin Ridley, Kirk, Zay Jones, Ridley, and Evan Ingram with again, an improved offensive line from which in which he came in in 2021, you have to feel good about it. I think this Jacksonville Jaguar's defense doesn't have an incredible defense by any means, but they have a situation and a moment here where they can take another leap. And I mentioned to you that worst of first thing since they rearranged divisions in 02, it's been about a little over one per season, worst to first. They were that last year.

I mean, this Jacksonville Jaguars team that Sharps had winning the division that started out poorly, that came on and surged onto the scene the second half of the season. No one wanted to play them. No one. Not to mention this, this is again, has to be baked into your nonging. They're down 27 to seven to my former San Diego chargers at halftime in the wild car round. They win the game. Third largest comeback in NFL postseason history.

So again, you got a guy who's a playmaker with all the NFL quarterback intangibles. He's got the height, he's got the arm, he's got the legs. He's got the support, which is everything. He's got a chance to make again another leap. The guy's getting 30 touchdowns this year. Over 25 and a half, forget about. And number seven on the list. Lamar Jackson, I'm sorry, Miss Jackson.

I like not one. I like two props of this man, but you have to take him over rush. 725 and a half rushing yards and even money. I mean, five years in this league, he's gone over this number four times. That includes, really, really think about this. That includes each of the last two years where he's played only 12 games. He's gone over a number three-fourths through the season of game output,

four out of five times. averaging 887. 887. Now, to me, I have to think the bookmakers don't often hang a number they think is sorely mispriced. 725 and a half, I cannot sit here and say,

break out anything other than the Aaron Judge Gaville, and slam it. Absolutely slam it. It's a top three rushing offense again, a banged-up club last year, healthier offensive line, cannot understand it enough. Here's another thing that factors into the rushing side of this bet. You draft Zay Flowers, you go out, you get O'Dell Beckham.

They still have Rashad Bateman who's been banged up, hasn't really even been close to scratching his potential. We don't know where he is. Devin Duvonne, playing special teams. Mark Andrews, J.K. Dobbins. You can make a case with Greg Roman out. the late Uncle Phil Window and Todd Manken in that the juju, and I've said it, is top shelf in Baltimore. I think they're winning the division.

I think they're going to the playoffs. I think no one's going to want to dance with this club. But Lamar Jackson, with the luxury of actually real speed and real wide receivers of Odo Beck and can be a glimpse of what he was in L.A., they have options for the first time at wide receiver. in my humble opinion, in Lamar's entire career, in higher career. He is locked in with the deal. He's locked in with the contract. Remind yourselves what happened with Dak Prescott, almost a 40 touchdown year when he was finally locked in. They did it. He represented himself. He won. Banged up last year, I think he's taking everything more seriously. I've watched a decent amount of Ravens

training camp videos. I've read up on this club because I'm making investments in this club. I feel confident that Lamar Jackson, not only is the seventh best quarterback in this league, he's going to have a seriously impressive season. But it starts with dual threat and it reminds you whether it's in Madden with the sticks, or it's in real life he's going to make grown men look embarrassed. Over 725 and a half has to be punched in. It has to.

So two is my 12th best quarterback. Jared Goff is my 11th. Dak is my 10th. Kurt non-prime time is 9th. The Prince that was promised was 8th. And I'm sorry, Ms. Jackson was 7th. And the honorable mentions that were considered. The Sean Watson, absolutely.

Maddie's staff, absolutely. Matt Stafford, get Instagram, start posting, take a page off of Tom Brady's book. My God. And Daniel Woody from. Toy Story Jones. All those dudes are rounding out the top 15. That is your list, in my humble opinion.

But Deshaun hasn't played real football full season and going on a year and a half. Matt Stafford, again, he's on the back nine. How much does he have left? You know, this whole thing he said with his wife about not connecting with the new guys because they get off the field, they hop on their phones. Figure out what Brady did when he got Instagram and his freaking early 40s, Maddie, and connect. and Daniel Jones, who again has been humble this entire time,

but is now in a coached up fantastic spot. They still don't have the weapons, though, around him outside of Sequin. It remains to be seen in New York offensively what they do. I cannot put this guy on that list. But he is an honorable mention because he takes excellent care of the football. He's a very good game manager. And believe it or not, Daniel Jones is an athlete. You do not want to give credit to being an athlete.

can run the rock career high um but that's the list we will be back tomorrow with one through six for paul for myself don't forget to hug your mothers we'll see you next time the volume