The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Week 10 NFL Best Bets

Episode Date: November 12, 2022

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting insight and gives you his final bets heading into Week 10 of the NFL season. #Volume #Herd #ColinCowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Uncle Colin with the all time Johnny Stockton to be here. We're just out here trying to do a good job fresh off of volume sports work trip to Keenlin got to chop it up with Mr. Sharp himself, Simon Hunter. We went back and forth. Fader Follow. We come out profitable.

Huge W. I, with conviction, take the public side, fading the Saints, been very enjoyable to fade the Saints this year, came up short only once against them. Unwatchable, unwatchable program there under Dennis Allen. I digress. Five picks for you. NFL week 10. I get a little emotional here and there on some of these narratives, but I feel great about it. If we don't go three and two, I will be thoroughly, thoroughly shocked. Quick shout out to my guy, Matt Mitchell, who I spent a full work day in the Lexington, Kentucky airport with on the volume sports work trip. That entire Larry David Curb episode took place and was consolidated in a two minute video.

You can hear. If you just enjoy traveling work trip comedy, go listen to it, the Action Network cousin podcast. this one, the favorites, killing the game. Let's get into it. First pick. It might be my best pick. I am going. I am going so far against the public here. I'd be shocked to see who else is on this with me. We are starting in Cheeseheadland Green Bay. I am getting the Green Bay Packers as a home underdog. And if it doesn't look like I've been beat in the ring by the GP Packers enough. I'm going back for more because the Packers under Aaron Rogers as home dogs are five and one.

And I can't wait to take Green Bay at home when I'm probably, I'm not only on Cheesehead Revis Island by myself here. I'm Stephen Glansberg and Superbats. Sitting at a table by myself if you're 25 and under, you have no idea what I'm talking about, but go watch Super Bad. This Packers team could not spiral any low. And this is a storyline game. All right, let's just lay this out.

The Green Bay Packers get to go against their old coach Mike McCarthy. Aaron Rogers gets to go against his old coach, Mike McCarthy. This may be the Super Bowl for the Green Bay Packers this year if they don't completely turn it around and make a playoff run. Now, Green Bay, if you didn't know, plays the Cowboys, and Aaron Rogers particularly, plays the Cowboys very well. Four and one against the spread over the last five against Jerry's world. Green Bay's won five of their last seven against Jerry and the Dallas Cowboys. Only Tom Brady and Russell Wilson, six and one and seven and no, have a better record than Aaron Rogers against the Dallas Cowboys. A-Rash 5 and 2 in his crew.

career goes to, goes to Jerry Jones land, lives for it, loves it. Now, I know the Packers are on a five game losing streak. I know they haven't had a five game losing streak since I was in high school in the OOs. I'm not here to harp on the negative. All right. Let's get on our Spicoli here. Let's get optimistic in the van. This team in the last few weeks now, let's really, let's really talk this out. In the last few weeks, going against. the bills. No one ran for over 100 yards against him. Singletary humble outing.

And the Packers actually covered that game. You go back last week. Detroit's a top five offense in most statistical categories. Top five, if not top 10. All season. They've been moving the ball. Green Bay holds the Detroit Lions at home to 15 points. D. Swift did play.

He was on a pitch count. But Jay Will didn't get over 100 yards either. What I'm saying is Cooper Rush leads the cowboys in passing yards. Go triple check with your own stigmatism. This team is predicated on running the football, Dallas. They're going to come in. Zeke's been hobbled the last few weeks, hasn't even played, and they're going to need the lean on Tony Pollard as the weather begins to change.

What's not not mentioned? an indoor southern team on the road in November, in a hostile environment, in a must-win game. Now, let me also tell you, not just Rogers going against McCarthy. He's going against the world right now. He had to go on his friend show Pat McAfee with A.J. Hawk. And it starts out by McAfee going, we didn't think you'd show up.

We didn't think you'd show up. Why? He responded. everybody in the NFL has pride. Everybody in the NFL, when they know they are underdogs, typically uses that as bulletin board material. Now, the Packers, believe it or not, actually move the ball better despite what they've done in the last five weeks

than the Dallas Cowboys as far as overall yards. This team, last week particularly lost because of Aaron Rogers. They didn't lose because of the team. So their best player is the reason for the L. I love this bounce back spot. The whole entire world is going to be on the Cowboys. I'm not saying the Packers are going to win. I have a feeling they are going to win.

I may sprinkle on the money line. This is a man that's taking the Packers over the Giants, over the Jets. I backed him last week. It was my only loss. last week. And I'm starting my show saying I'm backing the Packers plus five. I have to do it. If not now, when? If not now, when? I don't think they could sink any lower. And again, historical numbers, maybe they matter to you, maybe they don't. But Aaron Rogers has never not shown up against the Dallas Cowboys. And his quote,

to me was actually very encouraging. I've been counted out many times in my life, as have many of my teammates. I hope we just dig deep and find a way. We will truly be underdogs for many games moving forward. Hopefully we can embrace that. And that is worth mentioning. You're not a favorite anymore. What do we know about the New York Giants? They can't cover when they're favorites. Go back and look at it. When they're dogs, when Danny's on the row with points, unbelievable cover. You held the bills to 27 points, one of the best offenses in the league, and outscored them in the second half, 10 to 3. Held Brian Robinson, the commander game a couple weeks back to 73 yards.

As I mentioned, Singletary is 67 yards. They have held these teams over the last three weeks to under 100 yards rushing. This is what Dallas does well and the best. So if we can get on our Belichick here and there can be a lot. little strategy from LaFleur. Who's killing me like he's average Joe Peter LaFleur driving me up a bad beat wall. Just let Aaron Rogers manage the game, take over, do his thing, and let the defense, who over the last few weeks has shown us improvement, lean on the crowd, and let's get an old

school cheesehead W. I'm on the Packers Plus 5 to pick off the money line. Monaco program. Let's go let's go German Bundesliga eight hour flight over to Bayern Munich land, shall we? Because Tommy Tampa's headed to where his ex-wife. Yeah, I said

ex-wife, Jack, please. It's harshly from. And that, as outrageous as it sounds, is what I'm sliding into because I'm on the bucks minus two and a half. half. We've seen it fluctuate. If you want to take it at minus three, go ahead. I've seen it at minus two and a half.

That's what I'm firing on. I start with this. International games, home favorites. 23, excuse me, just favorites because there's no home. 23 and 14 against the spread. The favorites have covered. There has to be a Seattle Seahawks regression spot. I have backed them three out of the last four weeks. We have put them on the pod.

They have been very kind to us. Took them at home over the Giants, took them last week over the Cardinals. They have been cooking. All right, Corvette diner, Pete Carroll bubble comes sprinkled all over the Seahawks table. They're winning. But this is pros versus Joe's as far as I'm looking at it. And I heard Millman talk about it. depending on where you get your splits, there's his action network. He said it out loud, straight up, 60% of the bets on the Seahawks,

88% of the money on the bucks. Look, Giselle was part term. Okay, Tom Brady chose football over family. It's a sad Twitter bio divorce. Giselle's going to be watching. Tommy knows. Giselle is going to be watching. This is an important game,

not just in the Brady house, but in the Bucke's locker room. And it hasn't been on Brady. Matter of fact, what's happening in Tampa Bay Bucks football over the last five games is an anomaly. There's been one turnover between both the Bucks and their opponents in five straight weeks. It's the fewest combined turnovers in the history of a five game span in the Super Bowl era. No one's turning the ball over.

And Brady is not turning the ball over. He's thrown at least 40 passes with no picks in seven consecutive starts. 40 passes, no interceptions, seven consecutive starts. No other quarterback, just to put that in your noggin, has done that in the history of the league, more than four starts. And here's Tommy Tampa doing it seven. He's taking immaculate care of the football. His receivers are dropping the football and they're not running the ball.

They haven't rushed for 75 or more in eight straight games. That is the second longest streak in the Super Bowl era. The Cardinals hold a nine game lack of 75 or more rush yards in 91. That's how long a team hasn't run the football that we are backing this Sunday morning. But here's the thing. The Seahawks team, I go back to a week two. They got spanked by the San Francisco. go 49ers. Gino goes 24 for 30, no tugs one pick. They bend in San Fran with their D, but they don't break.

I look at the Bucks. What has happened for the Bucks when they've won games? They've won them, giving up no points to their opposition. 16, 13 last week to the Rams, they beat the Falcons 21.15. They were up 21.0 in that game. 20 to 10 over the Saints, 19 to 3 over the Cowboys. So to win this game, they have to keep the Seahawks offense at bay. Well, you look at the Seahawks, and if they aren't going, Tiff for Tatting a blowout game outside of that Cardinals' Humble win a couple weeks ago at home, they aren't winning games. They have to win in a shootout.

Well, so this game comes down to, if you're capping it, which style is going to cave to which style? And if I had to put my money on it, I'm putting my money on the team that since Brady has been there, identity-wise, has been everything they haven't done this season, but why not on the pitch, on a little ped lasso type soccer environment,

German style, this week to turn it all around. Why not this week to run the football, to have receivers like Scotty Miller, not drop a game winning touchdown, to have Matt in 96 like Mike Evans, not drop cupcake balls? Let's help Tom Brady for once.

It's a combination of a Seattle regression spot, trends for favorites in these games. Bode, great. And okay, so it's a road trip. Who's more buttoned up? Who's better coached? You would say Seahawks. I would say Seahawks, I would agree with you.

But who's the best leader between anyone, coach or player between these two franchises? It's Tom Brady. So backs against the wall. And again, Coward talked about this. Difference between Rodgers, different Brady. hung in there all 60 minutes and his belief got him that fourth and goal win.

Last play of the game win. Against the ramps. I put my money on Tommy Tampa. Minus two and a half. If you can get it at minus three, go ahead. I'm on it early in the morning. We start our Sunday with an international W.

Seahawks are good. They're not five wins in a row. Good? We turn the page to another. immaculate. Dame, Sunday night, Shanahan off a bye,

rested, dealing with injuries. What do you think? The whole wide world on the San Francisco 49ers, but guess what? Kyle Shanahan is a home favorite, is unwatchable as a cover, and I got the numbers to prove. Kyle Shanahan as a home favorite,

is 8, 17, and 1 against the spread. 8, 17, and 1. I'll give you another one. Home favorites as non-verse, non-conference opponents. Home favorites versus non-conference opponents this season. 612 and 1 against the spread. Two trends. well below, well below 500.

And the Shanahan one is clearly the more important trend. He doesn't cover as a home favorite. And the Chargers come in, they've covered four straight road games, four and O in their last four. Matter of fact, I got to at least mention it. They've beaten the Niners five straight games. They don't dance often, but they have beaten the Niners in five straight games. No one's beaten the Niners six straight since the,

Hawks did with the Legion of Boone. Shout out Richard Sherman, volume sports. We have on our side one of the most prolific quarterbacks to start his career in the history of the game. All right? Through 40 starts, Herbert has 90 touchdowns. Only Marino, only Patty Mahomes, and Kurt, back in your groceries, Warner, has started with more touchdowns than Herbert through their first 40 games. we should not be worried that Herbert over the last several weeks has had the deal with no Allen, Mike Williams hurt, offensive linemen hurt. They're still in the playoff conversation with a head coach who isn't a leader of men who is putting them in awful spots.

You have a Chargers team that did not give up a sack last week in Atlanta. We were on them. We got the push. we'll take it. Didn't give up a sack. You know how big that is for Herbert and his ribs? How about this? Who gives up the least sacks in the league?

The L.A. Chargers. They haven't allowed more than 10 sacks in the entire slate of the season. The Niners. Their last five games have been decided by at least 14 points. They win big, they lose big. Three and two record in that span. Niners haven't had six games like.

that since 1999. I'm all over here with your stats and your trends, baby, but I'm, I'm leading you down the Candy Land road to take the charges with you. I know, I know. Teams both average just about the same offensively. Yards almost the same. Chargers have more past yards. Niners have more rush yards. Niners have the better defense. When Herbert doesn't throw a pick on the road, the charges are six and one in his career. He's had three straight games with an interception. Not great. Still finding ways to win and win on the road. I'm sitting here. I'm looking at this game. I'm trying to pick a side. There's not a huge discrepancy on pros versus Joe's in this game, but I have a hard time believing that the, that the Chargers are

going to lose by more than a touchdown. That's a huge number to give Justin Herbert. And I do believe certain teams have certain styles. The Chargers win their favorites. You don't want to back them. The Charters win their dogs? What do we do when we took them on the Money Line Monaco pot against the Chiefs? And that was a backdoor cover. That was almost a win till that pick six Herbert threw. Herbert will get you backdoor covers. He is that kind of a quarterback.

They are that kind of on offense. You got 10 now career games with Eckler going for a rushing and a receiving. He did it again last week. 10 straight games. I don't trust Jimmy G to cover anything. more than a touchdown. This is a number play. Okay, sometimes you got to take numbers.

I'm about to give you the next game that I like on a number. We have to take the number. You know I'm from San Diego if you listen to me. You know I'm emotionally wrapped up in this team. They're my toxic acts. But I don't love, I don't love the combination of the Shana Ann trend and laying that much and going against a team

that when they have no one, in their corner show up. I'm telling you, this is Chargers Chemistry to a T. Now they could get routed. I don't see it. This would come down to coaching. They would only get routed if the coaching mismatch is that

prevalent. I'll take my chances. I'll take my ex-bolts with the seven against the Niners. Speaking of numbers, I got to take the Jags plus nine and a half. I'm sorry. The Titans with the 12 and a half on the pod last week at Casey was kind to us. I know we got to go

back into the Lions Den at Arrowhead, but I'm sorry. A Jags team that gives up 19.8 points per game, that's top 10, going against a Chiefs team. That again, I said it last week. I'll keep it short. I'll keep it sweet. If the Chiefs don't put up 40 plus points this season, and they're not doing that against the Jags on Sunday, a top 10D,

they don't blow you out. Look at the games. They had to blow out the Bucks, the Cardinals' week, one and the Niners of all things, over 40 points to easily cover those numbers against those three respective teams. Okay. Go look at the games that they didn't put up for that they won. They beat the Chargers by three.

We were on it. They beat the Raiders by one. We were on the Raiders with the seven and a half. And the Titans, they beat by three. We were on the Titans. I am 3-0 against the spread, fading the Kansas City Chiefs with big numbers.

Or divisional numbers I like like Chargers Plus 4. The Chiefs are off a 91 total play outing against the Titans. They had to run 91 plays to win that game. The Titans ran 48, 48. First time Casey had 90 plays while holding their opponent to under. 50 and got a win since the 70s, man, since that Wilmer Volderama 70s show,

Ashton Coucher. Patty Mahomes, single highs, career highs on completions and attempts, 43 and 68. Their game plan was busted against Rabel. Okay, they're going from good coach to good coach. Dougie Peterson is a better coach than the talent he has on the Jacks, I'm telling you right now they've been coached up. They just don't know how to win. They don't know how to win.

But to cover nine and a half, they have no, no reason to not cover nine and a half. Did you see what they did against the Raiders? They went down so big you could have got them at almost four to one money line. They outscore LV 17 nothing to the point where Adam not Schaeft or non-verified on Twitter is tweeting that McDaniels, a non-leader of men, has been swiped left out the late Uncle Phil window. He's gone.

He's gone. No, he's not. He's just that bad. He's hanging in for the full 60-minute-L. The Raiders got embarrassed by the Jags when they were dominating them. It's the second largest comeback in team history. You don't think that's momentum

off a third straight Travis E.T.N. 100-yard outing? Come on. We know Andy Reid is going to run them to the ground in practice. He's going to be pissed off. Big Reds going to be hated. It's not the point here. The point is we're getting a huge number and the trends and the signs in the weeds. And again, fade me on this one if you want. I really think I'm being sharp here. I really do. They don't blow you out over 40. They don't cover. We're on week 10. This isn't week four. I got some Costco

samples all over for you to try to back me with this. Jacks plus nine and a half. We wrap it up short and sweet. This one do not make it difficult. Rams money line pick them at home against the Cardinals minus 125. We faded the Rams multiple times this year. I'm Danny Dialed on the NFC West. I'm Danny dialed. The Rams are 10 and 1 versus the Cardinals since 2017.

10 and 1. The only team better since that year is the Jets losing to, the Patriots, 11 straight outings. Pat's 11 and over is the Jets. Second best divisional dominance. Rams over the Cardinals, 10 and 1. Since 2019, the Cardinals in divisional games at home,

we're only 2 and 9. 2 and 9. We're getting now a team on the road, a team on the road against the Rams team that is so low, they can't even go any lower. But the Rams, They already have the blueprint. We did this when we took the Niners, not once, but twice against the Rams.

It's already there. They beat them 20 to 12. Stafford, 18 for 25 with 249, didn't turn the ball over. Acres 12 for 61. Three receivers with four receptions. Kyler Murray threw the ball 58 times. Connor didn't run it. Why?

Because the Rams stopped the run. Only four teams in the league under 100 rushing yards against their opponents. the Rams are top four. That was a good loss, as hard as it is to say, the 16, 13 against the box. It could be demoralizing. It could be, or you could remind yourself it was an anomaly. All right? Only the third time since McVeigh took over.

Have the Rams allowed, 16 or less and lost. Again, bets are on the Cardinals. Money is on the Rams. And what do the Rams do when they win? They hold Carolina to 10. They hold Arizona to 12. Two of their three wins. Teams score less than 12 points against them.

Arizona in division, they are a interesting, interesting case study. There is no way I'm taking Kyler. This, look, we have a coaching advantage in this matchup. We have a historical trend here, 10 out of the last 11. In the NFC West, those numbers stick and they stay. Just know that. They stick and they stay. Because the Niners, it's a food chain.

It's a food chain. And when I tell you, Shanahan owns McVeigh, but McVeigh owns Kingsbury, I ain't lying. Take the Rams to the bank. I'll take the Packers plus five, the bucks minus two and a half in a perfect world or minus three pending when you fire. I'm on two and a half. I'm taking the Rams money line. I am taking the Jags plus 9 and a half, and we are taking the Chargers plus seven.

It's a dog day week 10. Don't forget to subscribe rate review on all things. Where you get your podcast? iTunes, Spotify, et cetera. Let's get out of here with an ad. It is your $1,000 no sweat first bet. Now is the perfect time to download a Fandle, America's number one sports book because right now new customers

get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back if your first. bet does it win? You already know when I'm on, baby. I feel best. I feel best about the Rams money line. To be honest, and I'm loving the Packers Plus 5. I think it is a take your public soul money type play.

And of course, you have player props for the weekend. I mentioned Echler and what he's done. Take Echler to get in the end zone. It's going to happen. Any same game parlay as you like, I am on the charters with the points. I love Herbert overpassing yards. And I love Echler to get.

in the end zone. So many reasons to love Van Duel. Tons of betting options for each game. You combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with the same game parlay. You have live betting. You'll get updated odds on those games that have already started. The app is safe, secure, super easy to use. Get paid with your winnings fast. So sign up today with promo code Monaco. For your no sweat first bet, make every moment more this season with Vandual, official sportsbook partner of the NFL. Do not on our signature sign off. Ever forget to hug your mothers. We will see you next week.

What's up with our winning weekend. Tata real smooth. The volume.