The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Week 15 Bets: Bengals-Buccaneers, Jets-Lions, Raiders-Patriots, Ravens-Browns

Episode Date: December 17, 2022

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting insight and gives you his final bets heading into Week 15 of the NFL season including Tom Brady and the Buccaneers taking on Joe Burrow and the Bengals, Derek Carr and the Raiders taking on Bill Belichick's Patriots, Jared Goff and the Lions vs the Jets, Justin Herbert and the Chargers against Derrick Henry and the Titans, and much more! #Volume #ColinCowherd #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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You got the spread, the money line, over unders, team totals, player props, and so much more. Jump into the action at any time during the game with live betting. You can also combine multiple bets from the same game in a same game parlay and even try out the same game parlay plus combining multiple bets within multiple games. And Fandual is now live in Maryland. So use promo code Monaco and download the Fandul app today to start making every moment more. And welcome into another episode of Sports Gambling with Moneyline, Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco.

It's week 15. We are rocking. We are rolling. I hope you're enjoying Elf, home alone, a little Tim Allen as Santa Claus, whatever holiday spirit you like to get into. We hope you are just to weaken some change out from Christmas.

The slate this weekend is tasty. The rest of the month of football in the regular season is riveting. So many storylines, so much value still to fire on as we. buckle up here for the last run of the NFL 2022 campaign. Again, you can find me on all social media under Moneyline Monaco, Alex Monaco on Twitter. We are on Action Network. Only two losing weeks out of 14 got smoked last weekend.

I didn't love my picks. No excuses. Just an off week. Can't take a bye week in this game. so we keep pressing on, but I got five picks against the spread. I'm enjoying them. I feel very good about at least a three and two outing. Again, you had seven divisional, seven divisional dances last weekend.

It was difficult. You know, sometimes you take dogs at home. Sometimes you take favorites on the road and you just, you miss and you miss again. But managing your units, playing the long game, no week, no play should break you. Let's keep it pushing. Don't forget to subscribe. Rate review. If you're enjoying yourself,

check out all things, volume, sports. It's only the World Cup final France, Argentina dish. By the way, I'm up over 15 units on the World Cup. All picks track. So I just ate like a steak and potatoes, Rocco, Steakhouse, New York City dinner. That's how much we ate on the World Cup. A ton of research went into it.

A ton of work. a bunch of Amazon AMP live. So if you ate with me, appreciate the support. All right. Back to American football. We go. First pick on the pot.

And it's the marquee matchup of the weekend. Joey Burr versus T. B12. And my guy, Tommy Brady, is spiraling. He's spiraling. We faded him last week. Same exact number here.

Niners minus three and a half, except they were at home. Now we got the Bengals three and a half on the road against this Bucks team. Let's just lay the storyline out for you. This Bengals team is the number one cover in the NFL this year. It's not Atlanta out the gate. There's no smoking mirrors anymore. The top against the spread dog in this NFL is our colleague at Volume Sports,

Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals, 10 and 3 covering. Furthermore, they're on an 18 and 3 against the spread run in their last 21. That's the best run in the history of 21 games against the spread in the NFL people. Let me repeat myself. 21 games. 18 covers. Eighteen. They're on their longest winning streak here, five straight since 2015 when they started the campaign, eight straight Ws. All right, this team's not beating cupcakes. You're the first team to beat Patrick Mahomes, Sir Patrick, three times in his career. You beat the Titans on the road.

You beat the Steelers at their place, never easy. And you handled 2310 last week against Watson and this Browns team with no problem at all. No ease. All ease, no trials and trips. And you have, and you have, for me, an incredibly, incredibly. low, low morale, Tampa Bay Bucks team. And again, you've heard me crisscross on them a few times. I've been on them.

I've been off them. I've been off them. I'm off them this week. They're just outmatched. And going against the team was so much going for them. I mean, the bucks couldn't have less going for them. Coming up, their second outing of less than 10 points. I mean, you get, you get smoked.

35-7 against a rookie undrafted, Mr. Irrelevant. Tom Brady is 7-0 all-time against rookie quarterbacks in their first start. Seven and up. He's now 7-1 thanks to Brock Purdy. But looking at this box team, I mean, we have the worst rushing offense in the league going against the 11th best rush, D. So not terrible, but serviceable. They certainly held Chubb at Bay last week. statistically, you got a Bengals D that in past defense is the same as the bills.

And then the bills are top 10 in almost every defense's statistical category. You're putting up top seven points. If you're the Bengals in the league, 25.8, 6.1 yards per play over the last three weeks. That's top five in the NFL. And this Bengals team, I mentioned the 18 and 3, a large part of that is them going on the road and not being scared of anybody, of nobody. They're 10 and 2 ATS in their last 12 road games. This Bucks team is 28th in the league in offensive production.

28, 17 points per game. They're not closing in the red zone. 21st in red zone efficiency. They're only scoring touchdowns. touchdowns in the red zone on the bottom half, bottom three of the league, production-wise. Brady's throwing the ball 50 times a game. I'm losing my voice over here. The 11th time he's thrown for 55 attempts.

He's three and eight when he does it. This is the problem with the box. They can't run the football. Brady's entire career, he has been able to run the football. He's been able to get the ball. out of his hands fast. It's not happening on this, on this team. It's certainly not happening right now.

So again, don't love the number three and a half. Who does? But since he, they got that magic number. I mentioned it to you. The number is 24 points, but particularly this season, when they score more than 20, they're 8 and up. And average in 25 and some change, they're perfectly capable against,

this Bucks D that yes is top five, but showed you giving up 35 last week to the Niners, they're susceptible to some bad performances. And when you can't keep the offense on the field and you just keep sending your defense out and sending your defense out and the opposing offense doesn't get off the field, you're in no man's land. It's a long 60 minutes, Jerry. So again, a team that's seven to one in their last eight. eight weeks. They should be able to cover three and a half. Now again, Brady blown out,

Carson on the sideline, throwing any kind of tablet. They could come in buttoned up. But, you know, since the Germany W against Seattle, they have not looked good at all. And I thought that was a turn-the-corner moment for them. They can't run the football. If you can't run the football in December when it's cold and you have a 45-year-old quarterback, even if he's the greatest of all time, Collins talked about it. He's going to appear washed and he isn't because if you put him on the Niners, they're a 10-win team right now. So I'm not buying that he's washed.

I just think they're in a rough spot here. You've got to go Niners Bengals back to back. I mean, the Bengals just ball controlled and beat this Browns team, who I'm fading later in the show again. The Browns are terrible. Watson's unwatchable. And I feel great about it. Bengals, minus three and a half. First pick of the campaign,

Week 15. All right. Pick two. I'm staying local, baby. New York kid now. And this New York Jets team in a pickam game, actually plus one. We'll take the plus one.

Need at seven and six, going against these six and seven score. Red Hot, Restore the Roar Lions and JG 16, I have to take the Jets here. I have to. And the storyline is simple. You have a struggling in the last month Jets team. You can't otherwise state it. Defensively, no, they're not struggling.

They're never struggling on defense. They go through a quarterback renaissance to some degree. They don't even shoot up Wilson after the three-point outing in the poor press conference, first the Patriots. They drop two, two straight games. and just so you know they haven't had, they haven't had a two-game losing street this season, the Jets, your New York Jets are otherwise incredibly consistent after a loss, four and one on the season, four and one, previous two years,

this Jets team is five and 20 after a loss. Robert Sala, not only keeping the CVS receipts, is changing the company culture in the complete Castanza opposite office space. way here. I mean, the opposite of Bill Lundberg. You got to love it. And looking at this lion's team, all right, you're five and one in your last six. Mazel Tove. But let's remind ourselves who this lion's team is beat, all right, a spiraling Packers team. You stole a Bears win you shouldn't add. You beat the Giants who haven't won a game of football in over a month. You beat the Jags who show up three times a year.

And yes, you had an impressive win against the Vikings who are getting outgained in yardage and are the biggest 10 win hoax I've ever Tinsletown scene. So yes, your neighborhood lions are playing great. But they're not beating who the Bengals have been beating. They're not beating any of those teams as top 10 defenses. They got to go. and a storm is coming and I'm not just talking. Sala's defense this Sunday. A storm is coming.

And it's this Jets defense in addition to the New York City weather. And might I remind you one of my favorite narratives in all of sports? A Southern California kid or a California kid lump it all together. It's all the same. Going into the northeast, an indoor cat and an outdoor. door scenario. Freezing, not comfortable, getting smacked in the mouth by a team with the fifth most sacks in the league. This New York Jets front seven with the sixth ranked defense, 18.7 per with the fourth ranked passing defense given up under 190. You saw what the Jets did

to Josh Allen. They've danced with him twice. He's barely thrown over 200 yards against the Jets. Jared Goff has been indoors with a heater on knitting, relaxed, Larry David Lamping because this lion's offensive line is superb. Now you've got to go against Quentin Williams day to day, but should be shooting up. And this menacing New York Jets front seven. And I'm telling you, I'm telling you, I'm telling you. This is a pick-em game.

Mike White knocked with his ribs. They got Zach Wilson now suited up. as the backup. They need this game. This is not three, four weeks ago anymore from Sala's camp. They need to win this game to get in the playoffs. Now, the Lions need this win too. They do. Just go back and look at what the Patriots and Bill Belichick did to Jared Gough. And yes, that team was 1 and 6 to start the year. So they caught them when they were bad. Now, the

judges are catching them when they're hot. But you can't overstate enough. Gough, it was 54% completion percentage against the Patriots, didn't throw a touchdown, through a pick, and they didn't score a basket. Sit under the table at your local frat party, Detroit. You didn't hit a cup at the BP table.

Sit under the foldout. You didn't hit a cup. And that's how I see this game. If the Jets, who haven't been able to run the ball, got a little bit of a bright spot last week, on a complete plug and play, but otherwise have not been on the ball. If they can stay in it with their defense.

And again, they backdoor covered on a safety and a sick field goal to stay in that game and lose by eight against the bills. They stay in games. If they can find a way to just do what they do on D, which is make Jared Goff run the football. And this Jets team, you can run on them, but they're still 13th best. You can't run down their gullet. Williams and Swift are capable.

I think this Jets front seven is more than capable. To me, might I remind you? They have not faced a top 10 defense on this win stream. Not one, never not once. Lions team is bottom two in defense. Stop forgetting this defense didn't fire their DB coach a cup of coffee ago. I mean, honestly, yes, last six games holding opponents to 20. First seven, you gave up 32.

I don't want to hear it. Still a bad defense. With players, Okuda Hutchinson, yes, players. Not a true New York Jets collection. I'll back to better D at home here and pick them. Jets plus one. What is a holiday memory you have without Omaha Stakes? I can remember several bringing the family together,

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Omaha stakes.com. I'm going right back to another pickum game. Another going back into the Lions Den. understudy versus mentor, coordinator versus head coach, decade plus these men were married at the hip. Josh McDaniels hosting his former boss, the one and only Darth Vader, Bill Belichick,

who I faded Monday night. We caught a super, super Scotty Van bad beat there. Again, that game's completely different if Kyle Murray plays. You can't even call it a true loss in the sports betting world, but it was a loss. This Raiders team, though, we love it. You hear it enough in the betting world.

You hear it enough in sports media. A team gets embarrassed. And Colin talks about it a lot. Whether they get blown out or they get up 13 points with four to go on national TV on Thursday night and lose that way. It doesn't matter. These are human beings that have been insulted at the highest level by a guy that was picked off on waivers. All right. Progressive insurance wasn't even going to pick up his option.

Baker Mayfield was lower than low. He comes in. He comes back against this Raiders team. I mean, unbelievably embarrassing. Unbelievably embarrassing. But I'll tell you one thing. I'm loving the Raiders in the spot. I'm loving a bounce back game.

This has only happened one time in 40 years. You blow a 13 plus before to go. For the Raiders in franchise history. It was an anomaly. And again, they're known for, blowing a lot of leads. They're also known for coming back in a lot of games. But neither here nor there.

There's still three and one in their last four. And they put up 40, 27, and 22 in three of those wins. This is a team. Just to let you know, because I know everyone's going to talk about the Belichick defense in this matchup, but this Raiders offense. All right, they've put up 32 and 23 against the Denver D. Denver's only allowed over 20 points four times this season. Two of those were against this Raiders club.

who only has five wins, three of which in the last four games. Now, might I remind you, objects and mirror are not as they Patriots appear. This team is beating backup quarterbacks. Stop tripping. You beat Colt McCoy last week. Whoopty-Doo, Basil, who can't? You beat Sam Ellen at home when Reich was on the Budweiser Hotsie. Whoopty-Doo, Basil.

You beat Jacoby Berset. You only had him as your quarterback for seven seasons. You should have beat him. You beat Mitch Trubisky. Mr. Trisky. It's a movie old school didn't come out. No one would even know about Mitchapalooza at this point in his life in football. I'm sorry.

It was a little harsh. I like Mitch. You beat Mitch Trubisky. You beat Zach Wilson twice. Where are the star quarterbacks that the New England Patriots have beaten? Now, I'm not calling Derek Carr star quarterback, but he's a top 15 quarterback. You can make the case he's top 12. clutch meter.

He's top seven. Go look it up. And Mack Jones is continuing to be mediocre. Continuing. He's got seven touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. That's embarrassing for a first round draft pick in his second campaign. This is the Patriots, though. They look, Goa McDaniels.

They bring in Patricia with his number two pencil behind his ear and they expect a defensive guy to run the offense. I said it on Monday. Romandre Stevenson is leading this receiving court. It's embarrassing. And this is the only team that could get away with it because it's Belichick. He's got an immunity since Derek Carr's cried their three and one. And you can make the case that yes, Belichick is going to shut down everything that we say when we back to Patriots,

what the Raiders do best on offense and make someone else beat them. But you know what? The reality is that this Raiders team is starting to kick and cook. and the defense has improved a lot from the first eight weeks of the season. And the offense, I mean, we're talking about DeVante needing four yards from scrimmage, which is going to happen on one play. For him and Josh Jacobs to become the first, first duo of Raiders teammates to get 1250 plus on scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns ahead. They're not nervous on the offensive side.

here in this matchup. I promise you that. I promise you. Cole McCoy moved the ball in this Patriots defense. And this is a balanced Raiders attack. So you shut down Josh Jacobs. You still have DA. You shut down DA. You still got Josh Jacobs. Patriots, again, their season has been loss, win, loss, two wins, two wins, two losses win. It's win, loss, win loss. This is a short week on the road, back-to-back road outings. And I guarantee you that in a Raiders pick-em here, the value is on the Raiders. Trust me, they should be minus two and a half.

They should be. They should have won that game in L.A. And the Patriots, they got away with one against the Cardinals. Again, pick a win for the Patriots. Pick a backup quarterback. All right. Mac Jones was 24 for 35, no tugs in a pick. No tugs in a pick.

We should not be scared of this Patriots offense. Zero weapons. Take the Raiders in a prideful bounce back and the hungrier team that simply needs to win. We keep it pushing. Two picks left. I feel very good about both of them. We took one of these teams. we faded one of these teams.

So something's got a Jack Nicholson give on this fourth one. And the Titans have creeped up the plus three against the Chargers. I got to do it. I got to do it. It's disgusting. It's grotesque. It is so repulsive. I don't even want to bet on it, but I have to do it.

And you know it. The Chargers, getting points, laying points. Jekyll and Hyde. Titans, giving points, getting points. Hyde and Jekyll. The Titans. They're off their first three-game losing streak since 2018. This is a prideful bunch.

This is a team that hasn't lost four in a row since 2015. So might I tell you in this one, we're backing historical numbers from a Mike Frable standpoint. And we're getting a perfect recipe for a storyline, a team that's bottom five in Rushdie, which I have no idea why Miami. didn't take advantage of it last week. But this team is giving up 147 on the ground, this L.A. Chargers team.

They were missing six defensive starters in that game against the Finns. It was part of Wyoming, public simp nonsense. This is going to be a public play on the Chargers, I promise you. The Titans haven't won a football game in a month in three weeks. But again, they're an unbelievable cover. still they're eight and five against the spread. They're top three against the spread this season. And the Chargers, their last six games and eight of their last nine have been decided by seven points or less.

We're getting three. We're getting Derek Henry. Derek Henry, we took them, I told you, over on yards and getting in the end zone against the Jags, he owns the Jacks. He had over 100 yards in the first half. They didn't give them the ball in the second half. Why? For April. Why?

But when he goes for over 120, which he did against the jacks, 121, the Titans are 18 and 2. Just taking these two elements here, the Titans who I haven't had a four game losing streak since seven years ago, and the fact that they're 18 and two when D. Henry, King Henry runs for that number and the Chargers give up 147, if you're connecting the blues, glues dots, there it is. there is your game. The Titans are excellent on defense. On the sample size of the year, haven't played good defense the last three weeks,

but they're still a top three rush defense. So Echler's not going to eat on the ground. They're going to have to lean on Herbert again and how many times can Herbert save them? This is a gut check game for the Titans. They don't want anyone in the AFC South smell and blood. They want to wrap this division up. And again, the Chargers do not blow teams out.

They always step on booby traps. They always find a way to make it difficult. You have to take the Titans with the three. I'm so glad I'm giving it to you with plus three. Short and sweet like some sowipatch kids. Last but not least Saturday football. So make sure you lock it in. Saturday football.

I'm going AFC North. This is far and away the grossest pick on the board. And I was maybe going to go Giants four and a half. Primetime flexing spot. Playoff berth on the line should be close. I probably will punch in four and a half for the G men off that 2020 L two weeks ago against the commanders and a blowout versus Eagles. But I'm going to give the Ravens plus two and a half here on the road against a

unwatchable Cleveland Brown's team will take the two and a half happily the narrative is simple this is a man in number four Deshawn Watson who I don't want to spend much time talking about who hasn't played football in over 700 days

all right you go back two weeks ago against the Texans Donovan People's Jones special team touchdown two Brown's defensive touchdowns and six offensive of points. They had 27 in the game.

21 came from defense and special teams. You go against the Bengals last week for Watson. A little bit of improvement. He threw a touchdown. But no, not really. He had 10 points in the game. So in eight quarters of Dachal Watson, the Browns have 16 points of offense.

16 points of offense. It's not the team you want to go against with Roquant Smith, Patrick Queen. and these boys who all have DOG in their ribcage. This man, Rokane Smith, recorded a sack in an interception, week 14 against the Steelers, only player this season with at least four sacks and three picks. Only player. Another subtle Ravens culture swoop in a mid-season acquisition.

But I look at what Huntley is and he had a concussion. So he went out and Anthony Brown came in undrafted out of Oregon. So I'm aware that I'm backing a team that may or may not. not have Huntley go the whole game. Anything could happen. Anthony Brown could come in. But let me lay it out. An insanely rusty Deshawn Watson with a Brown's team that is playing for next season. Against a neck and neck race Ravens Bengals to win this division in a FC North Pennant. The Ravens are the second best run defense in this league giving up 81 in the game.

And eighth best in points against overall. coming in, winning six of their last seven. Coming in covering five of their last six against the Browns. Coming in is the third best road cover in the league at five and two against the spread. And going against the 27th worst defense in the league. All right. The Browns are the, it's the Browns, the Cardinals, and the Lions. Statistically speaking, out of three worst defense in the league.

They have one offensive touchdown in eight quarters. And yes, the Ravens, they're sneaking by. They are sliding by. But they've won five games by five or fewer points this season. Tide for the most of the NFL, they're right there with the Vikings. They have this luck metric. But in December, don't want to keep repeating myself, but I have to. You run the ball, you stop the run, you don't turn the ball over, and you play real defense.

You're going to win ball games. You're going to win ball games. and let's not understate what this Ravens D has been the last five weeks of football. They've given up three to the Panthers, 13 to the Saints, 14 of the Steelers and nine to the Broncos. And they won those games, obviously. So bottom six defense versus top eight defense, an offense that is lost at sea.

I got chub on my fantasy team. I lost by a point and a half against an inferior club. in my college, in my college fantasy league, Chub gives me 34 yards against the Bengals. It's embarrassing. This is what happens, though. Your star comes in, there's all this pressure from upper management.

You got to get them production. You got to get them going. You completely alienate Browns football, which is run first. They look lost at Castaway C. So I'll back a company culture purchase here on a Saturday, short work week, and a neck-and-neck race here.

I believe in Tyler Huntley. and I believe in this Ravens D. To wrap up the show, let's give you our picks. Bengals minus three and a half. Jets plus one over the Lions. Raiders money line minus 110 over the Patriots. Titans plus three at the Chargers.

And the Ravens plus two and a half. Nice mix and mingle of two money lines, two dogs and a favorite. If I don't go three and two, if I don't go three and two, it might be Dr. Evil, shave the head time. All right,

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