The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Week 16 Bets: Eagles-Cowboys, Packers-Dolphins, Giants-Vikings, Raiders-Steelers

Episode Date: December 24, 2022

Alex Monaco shares his sports betting insight and gives you his final bets heading into Week 16 of the NFL season including Dak Prescott and the Cowboys vs the Eagles, with Gardner Minshew starting for the injured Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, Saquon Barkley and the Giants taking on Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, and much more! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I'm your host, Alex, Monaco. Thank you for tuning in. We are approaching Christmas weekend. Let's go a full Saturday slate. Just three Christmas games. I do have a pick on Christmas Day for you, as well as Monday night. We're stretching out week 16 all the way across the board. Fired up to be here with you again.

Please subscribe. Rate review goes a long way. if you're enjoying yourself, if you've been profiting, if you've been fading, if you're enjoying the vibes. Look, it's the holiday spirit. We'll five star if you're feeling generous. If I'm doing mediocre, hit me with a four, you know, three stars, come on. All right, five picks, bounced back last weekend, sort of. Feeling good. Finally hit a prime time. Let's dive in. Playoff implications. I am going. Dog. heavy this weekend.

I'm just telling you right now I am on one favorite. Everything else. Give me the points. Last weekend was something out of a movie. All right. Eight outings. Eight were down to the final few minutes. Three 17 point comebacks.

The largest comeback in NFL history. And here we go. First pick for the Christmas slate. We're going right in to the lion's den, people. And I am going to Jerry's World. And I'm putting on that old school Chris Long underdog mask. And I'm taking the fly Philadelphia Eagles and Gardner, Mr. America Minchu. And the five and a half points I see on Fandau right now.

Now we've seen this line get up to six. we've seen it down to four and a half. As we speak right now, it is settled at five and a half. I am purchasing it at that price. Again, this was a pick-um game at the beginning of the week. Jalen Hertz is out. That is the story. The MVP talk.

The lines are moving there. But let's get into this. NFC. East bout. Cowboys off in embarrassment last week. And again, they were on a nice little wind streak there. Great month of football blowing out the Vikings and onward. but you give up four touchdowns to Sunshine, Mr. Trevor Lawrence. You give up 27 second half points to a shack, icy, hot, cold team that is two and two,

by the way, on blowing 17 point leads and coming back from 17 plus point leads. it has to make you take a step back and read the room here. And we are fading number four who is playing very mediocre football. Now again, they are running the ball so well that it is being disguised. Dak Prescott, as Collins alluded to, the other version of Kirk Cousins under center here for Dallas. this man has nine interceptions, nine in six weeks of work. No quarterback, just to give you a comparison, has more than six. This man has turned the ball over, cost himself and his team a loss in overtime against Jacksonville.

Should have cost his team with a late pick against the Texans the previous week. and you want me to swallow five and a half points against a team with one loss on the year? You know, Siriani is embracing this underdog role. This is what Philly's M.O. was in 2017 with big, you know what, St. Nick, who will get to later in the show. Oh, you better believe it, he's under center for the Colts. This team embodies being an underdog lives for. being doubted. I finally went to Philly and experienced a playoff atmosphere.

It is real. They want you to not believe in them. So of any teams to back in this instance, this is the best team. Now let's get into the weeds here. All right? Sirianni's already pump fake. He's telling

everyone he's creating two game plans because Jalen Hertz apparently heals like Ironman and may play this weekend. I don't see it. I think it's a stone cold bluff. I am taking five and a half, assuming it's Minshu magic baby. Min shoe mania. The professional version of Uncle Rico.

Shout out White Lotus. Didn't know he was on it. This is a guy in Gardner, Minshu, who played very well last year, by the way, for this team. Two starts, beat the Giants, win against the Cowboys. Was serviceable, believe it or not? Was actually serviceable. and Garner mentioned against the cowboys in his career. Two tugs, 186 yards,

pass a rating of 81, could be worse. Look, this is a man who's played four seasons between the Jaguars and the Eagles. He's thrown for over 6,000 yards. He's got 41 touchdowns, only 12 interceptions. We're not inheriting a Madden 73, all right? Closer to a 79. And you look at what Phillies M.O. is. and let's go back to the Cowboys match.

That was Cooper Rush, yes. Jalen Hertz didn't even have to do anything special in that game. Yes, he threw for two touchdowns, but barely over 150. Game managed that to the end. And they did what Philly does, which is win the turnover battle, which they've done all year, their first at plus 12. Now, Dallas is plus 9 respectively, but I will say. Philly is plused well in the turnover department.

Now, looking at what I would say the game plan is for Philly in this game, simple. Run the ball and don't turn the ball over. That's it. Dak, I just told you, nine picks in six games. Now, yes, this team is looking good as far as wins, losses in the last six games. two, this Dallas Cowboys team. They're only two and four against the spread, by the way. And we're getting an Eagles top two offense in points per game, 29 per.

We're getting an Eagles team defensively that gives up the second least yards in the league. Under 300. Only two teams in that category, 293 a game. This Eagles defense gives up. And yes, it's the number one pass. defense in the NFL. Shout out to fellow colleague Darius Slay of the volume number one in passing yards per game 172 per. So what I'm telling you is this. They're going to have to beat you with Zik and Pollard if they're going to beat you. And you go back and look, everyone talks about this

Eagles Rushdie being mediocre at best. Let's take the last Advent calendar month here and pull out a piece of chocolate because last time I checked, Montgomery ran for 53 yards last week. Yes, Fields went ballistic, still didn't break 100, and Fields runs on everyone. Take Justin aside. The running back, the running back, because Dak ain't running out, nobody. Montgomery held to 53. Sequon, the blowout the week before, nine carries for 28 yards. Derek King Henry, they went against three weeks ago, 11 carries for 30.

How about AJ Dylan? four weeks ago, eight for 64. Do we go back a fifth? Jonathan Taylor. 22 for 84. That's the best output. And that was 3.8 of carry in the last five weeks, people. That's Jonathan Taylor, Derek Henry,

and A.J. Dillon with a side of Sequin Barkley. And Montgomery's nothing to snub at. So what I'm telling you is this eagle's rush since they've brought in a suit, since Jordan Davis has been back, has been a lot more closer to what they actually are. And I think this game, it's an NFC East dance, and it's a big number. We're backing the number here.

Five and a half to me has to be an overreaction. How much better? How much better go through the other 15th, men on these rosters. Are the Cowboys players overall than the Eagles? They're not. They're not. Hit the mic here so excited.

They're not six points better. So I could go on and on and on. We got to keep the show rolling. I'm going to take the Philadelphia Eagles. Getting five and a half. I don't like it. I love it. All right.

Next up. From an NFC East bout. to Ace Ventura land. We go. Laces out, Danny. Aaron Rogers. After a Natty TV, and you heard Colin talk about it,

very engaged outing Monday night in front of the whole wide world. We hit that if you tailed. The Green Bay Packers, who, oh, by the way, are three and two in their last five. Three and two, still alive. Currently, plus 800 on Fandle that I made a video of on volume bets, check it out.

Of them making the playoffs. And I think they're running the table. And we're getting. Now, this line open just to give you an idea at five. Ah, immediately Sharps came in. No other reason why that number goes down from five and a half to three and a half. Professional money came in on the Packers at the beginning of the week as we start our reasoning to convince you.

why you need to roll with the cheeky shout out old school Vince Vaugh. Look, say what you will about this Green Bay team. Men in black it, 50 first dates, 10 second comment, whatever you got to do. Forget about the first 10 weeks of the season. As I just mentioned, three and two in their last five. Defense has been awful most of the season. But let's start with the offense. Packers' offense, average.

just under four touchdowns a game in the last five weeks, just under 28 points per game in the last five weeks, Aaron Rogers with nine touchdowns in those last five weeks. Now, looking at this Green Bay defense, say what you will, they're awful. They're giving up almost four touchdowns a game on the season. No, no, they're not, actually. They're not.

They're giving up 22 a game. And Miami is given up 24. a game. My guys, Packers shut out the Rams in the fourth quarter. Listen to this. Since week eight, the Packers have allowed only 20 points in the fourth quarter, including four shutouts. Let me remind you, since week eight, halfway through the season, the Packers have given up 20 fourth quarter points. Only Nick Bosa and the San Francisco 49ers have put up a lower number, 14. And remember, I've gone on and on the pod when we've backed the Niners about how they've had five of six shutouts in the second half on this incredible run. They're on seven wind streak.

Da, da, da, da, da. Who's the second best closing defense in this stretch? The Green Bay Packers. Now, it's Christmas weekend. I'm hoping. I'm hoping down in pet detective land. It's less than 50 degrees because Tua is 0 and 4 with a 71 passer rating. when it gets baby back cold.

All right. The weather is real. If there's any weather implications on Sunday, Christmas, Yeline Green Bay. Here's another element. Everybody will be watching this game. It is the same rationale for Monday night. Aaron Rogers is not Tom Brady.

Aaron Rogers, and I've talked about this with Colin off air over a beverage and we've heard him talk about. A single man, Aaron Rogers, not a married man, making decisions for himself, only worried about himself, me, myself, and I with no ream. Shout out Jim Carrey again. Two Jim Carrey movies in the same pick.

Look, Aaron Rogers, what I'm getting at, is a bizarre individual to psychologically break down. He's out, he's in, It's literally, am I interested? I'm not that interested. Should I play like I'm interested? But I'm not that interested. She might be interested.

So all of a sudden, I'm starting to get interested. It's unbelievable how this man works. But I'll tell you how he's working on Christmas Sunday. He's going to ball out. And he's going to beat the Miami Dolphins. I'm telling you that right now. The Miami Dolvins.

Don't want to run the football. It's one of the ones. of six teams that cannot put up over 100 a game. And I'm here to tell you that Green Bay behind Philly has the second best pass defense in the NFL, giving up 185 per. So if they don't want to run it, they're going to have to go against the second best past defense. This Green Bay Packers defense was top 10 last year in almost every statistical category.

They shouldn't be this bad. Taking the Packers, money line, I'm telling you right now. Now, to take the three and a half, because Green Bay is covered three of their last four as a thought. The offense are 0 and three in their last three. And I know it's a week to week league. And they've had a tough draw. They had to play Buffalo. They had to play San Francisco in San Francisco.

It's been brutal. You look awful against the Chargers, a similar team that can't stop the run. And they didn't even try. I don't know what McDaniel is doing. He's worried about his swag. He's not focusing on the game plans. To his credit. he had a good game plan against Buffalo, but that's the only good game plan in the last three weeks.

Next pick. Best pick. This one's emotional. This one's very emotional. I'm going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers minus two and a half at home hosting the Raiders. It is a 50 year reunion game for the Immaculate Reception. One Franco Harris, rest in peace. Just passed away this week.

Devastating news was supposed to be honored. The whole game on. Saturday was going to be about Franco Harris's catch celebrating 50 years almost to the day. It was an AFC, AFC divisional round playoff game against John Madden and the Raiders. And so heavy hearts coming into Heinz Field on Saturday and in an emotional Steelers country that is a Steelers family. We've seen Terry Bradshaw. We've seen Mike Tomlin.

We've seen the faces of the Steelers franchise. generationally on through speak on what an unbelievable person, Franco Harris was and an unbelievable man and player. He embodied his entire life and career. And so they're playing for Franco this weekend. And they're playing for Steelers country. And I'm looking at this game. And I'm looking at this Raiders team.

And emotions on the other side as well, right? That's the largest Raiders win. the backwards lateral against New England that we've seen in a game for the Raiders where they trailed by seven or more with a minute or less than the fourth. This is the Raiders. They blow a out of this world,

Baker Mayfield 13 plus four to go lead. They come back on another historic Raiders win by less than a minute, seven points or less, stiff arming Mac Jones to the face. And there goes, Chandler Jones, former Pat. So you have the, the Raiders coming in with, yes, confidence, sure. To me, it's a bit of uncertainty, in my opinion, with this Raiders club, because as I get into it,

you just can't trust them. You can't trust them. Look at this Raiders team throughout this season. Where is consistency? Here's the other element, too. They're, their wins. They're barely, barely winning games.

Now, you look at Pittsburgh in the last month of football, three and one in their last four. Points given up. Defensively speaking, 16 to Carolina, 16 to Baltimore, 16 to the Falcons, 17 to the Colts. Now, I just mentioned these Raiders' close games.

Well, five of the eight Raiders losses, believe it or not, were by them scoring 20 points or less. So eight times the Raiders have lost. They've only put up 20 or less. I just gave you a month of football where the Steelers defense did not give up 20. It seems to be a key number here for Raiders L's. Five of six Pittsburgh's wins are by 20 points or more. You look at what the Raiders give up on the season.

Well more than that number. I love that Pittsburgh went into Carolina with Mitchie True Biscuits, Mitchapalooza, and he was serviceable. 17 to 22 took care of the ball. Najee Harris has been playing tremendous football 80 plus and four of his last six and five touchdowns in his last six games. Absolutely put Najee Harris scoring. I am so confident Harris is scoring.

I put it in as a solo slip. But this Steelers defense is menacing. All right? This last month of football again, you're not scoring more than two tugs and a field goal on them. They're second in the league at interceptions, 14 picks on the year. And again,

this Raiders team, you can't not trust them. You just can't. And if this game comes down to, one big play, or a defensive turnover or somebody making a mistake, I'm telling you nine times out of 10, it's going to be to Pittsburgh's benefit.

My I also remind you, indoor team, I don't want to say baby back. It's not their fault they play indoors on the West Coast, outdoors in Pittsburgh in late December. Good luck, Derek Carr. Good luck. I've been very good. Backing the Raiders,

fading the Raiders. Certain teams you've been with me, I've been just off. I am on this Raiders team. I took them. Last week as one of my five, I'm fading them. Stone Cold Fox this week as one of my five.

Two picks to go. We're going right back in to another NFC East team. Give me Danny Dimes. and the G men with the plus three and a half. Now, you can get plus four. I've seen it up to four on Bandool. I put it in at three and a half. I love it.

We are taking a Giants team that just cruise control against this commander's team last week. Very bend but don't break. Couple of timely winked martindale turnovers on Ouch, out you're on my Heineke. He fumbles twice, two mistakes in the red zone. Bada boom, bada bing. Here come the G men against a team that.

just, oh, by the way, exhausted their backyard baseball juice meter all the way down to 1%. Because they had to come back from 33-0 against the Colts last week. Oh, by the way, teams that were 0-913 since 1925 went up by 33 points at any point in the game are dancing this weekend and laying three and a half. You know, the Vikings are under 500 on the year, right? Against the spread? Are you aware the Giants are 10 and 4? ATS, top two in the entire league.

They're five and one hovering on the road. They're eight and two. The New York football giants as an underdog hovering. The Giants, say what you will. about a banged-up club. This has been coached-up football since week one. Dave scored at least 13 points in 14 of their games. You want to talk about Giants offense?

That's the longest streak since 2005, Eli Manning. That's the longest streak since 2005. 13 points or more in 14 straight games. New York held, by the way. last year, no dable, under 13 points in seven different occasions. So they're going to give you offense. Tibidao breakout performance for the first round draft pick KBon. How about this?

The only player, not rookie, only play in the last 30 years, 12 plus total tackles, three tackles for a loss, a sack of force fumble, a defensive touchdown, and a partridge in a pear tree this holiday season. The Vikings have the worst point differential for any 11 and 3 team since the merger in the 70s. They're plus two. You want to know that the game that embodies the most that I feel this Minnesota Vikings can be on any given Pacino Sunday? How about the game against the Cowboys? in which I told you, they were going to rule the Vikings,

and it was 40 to 3. The Vikings are frauds, people. Kirk Donne Primetime Cousins is celebrating like he's done something. This Vikings team wins and feasts off of turnovers. Well, guess what? Danny Dimes has one turnover in the last four weeks, seven total on the year he is taking excellent. hair of the football and the Giants are tied for the least amount of turnovers in the league.

The Vikings have the seventh most takeaways. They're living off of the turnovers. They don't play the NFC historically very well. They've only covered one time in the last eight against NFC opponents. What else do we need to hear? Daniel Jones plays better on the road, better on the road than he does at home. covers over 60% in its career on the road. Trust me when I tell you,

there's psychology involved in this pick. The Vikings are gassed. They owe us a lot down spot. The Giants are fighting to solidify themselves a playoff position. The Vikings wrapped up the division, baby. They can't even catch the Eagles unless a lose out and a win out happens. They ain't getting the buy. They ain't getting home field.

They're due for regression. Kirk non-prime time against Danny Toy StoryThimes. And I'm going with Woody all day. Giants plus three and a half. Last but not least, fading my favorite, not so favorite team. We're covering San Diego Charger fan over here.

The Colts are all the way up to four and a half on Fan Duel against the Chargers. Four and a half. And we got the man with the statue in Philly under center for the Colts. And I love. I feel terrible for Maddie Ice. now has an L in the largest Super Bowl and regular season to his resume.

I feel for him. And now he's been benched by Jeff Saturday on a Saturday. This is tough, dude. But Nick Foles comes in and this man is a gunslinger. All right. He's got a Pro Bowl. He's got a Super Bowl MVP. He's got over 14,000 yards on his resume.

He's got over 80 touchdowns on his resume. And we got an indie team that is 2 and O as a home underdog that can run the ball versus a bottom five Chargers run D that has banged up defensively, that is on a win streak that they normally aren't, because they don't win three games in a row hardly ever, only once this season and their favorites, and they shouldn't be. Well, they should be, but they shouldn't be by more than three.

And we are getting a ton of value here on this Colts team at plus four and a half that nobody wants to touch. This is the spot. This is the play. Nobody wants to take this Colts team that has won, once since Jeff Saturday took over. They haven't lost five in a row all season. The cults are on a four-game losing street.

They're off the other side of the worst comeback in NFL history. Now, my psychology for this pick works the exact same thinking, but the other Kostan's opposite way. This team got embarrassed, national television, troll, memes, videos, this, that, million dollar parley is hit because of it. They have pride. in that locker room.

This is a top 10 company culture, minus their owner. The Colts defensively still a very stout team. Yes, they allowed a bad half to happen, but they're seventh in allowed yards per play. They're seventh in opponents right now. And their fourth in sack percentage. That's top 10 for all three categories. Again, this Chargers team,

they do not make it easy on themselves. Let me just put this into perspective because four and a half is the number and it's a key number going against the Chargers team that has only one win by more than six points. Everything else is six or less. The Chargers, one win by more than six. That includes a two point win,

a one point win, two point conversion over the Cardinals and three, three point wins. Notice I was on the Titans plus three. I told you they were going to cover. it pushed, should have won. It was 10 to 7. We should be concerned about this Chargers team that only put up 10 points against a very

lackluster, free fall on Titans club. Again, this is just stick to the script. Player D, run the rock, win the game. At least win the spread for us. So we'll back a team on company culture, gut check game, hasn't lost five all year off in

NFL historic Elvers, an inconsistent club that I feel is not well coached. Staley is a bad coach. I don't know that we'll ever see an above 500 coach get fired. I hope Staley gets canned. He's terrible. All right. So we wrap it up. Showing the holiday spirit towards Staley as we get out of here.

Eagles plus five and a half. We go, of course, with the Packers, plus three and a half. I'm swall in the two and a half. Steelers at home, beating the Raiders, Giants plus three and a half, Colts plus four and a half. Who am I? Four dogs and a favorite. We get out of here with Uncle Chuck Santa Barkley, hooking it up, he's back. And this year he's given new Fandual customers exactly what you asked for. Unwrap the gift of a no sweat first bet up to $2,500 back in free bets when you sign up with promo code Monaco. That's $2,500 back. if your first bet doesn't win.

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The live betting features. Best in the business. You get paid super fast. So see for yourself by Fan Duel's America's number one sports book. Get in on the holiday spirit with a no sweat first bet up to $2,500 back in free bets from Santa Barclay when you sign up with promo code Monaco. That's right. Santa Barclay, hey, you have a wonderful Christmas, a happy Hanukkah, anything else you celebrate.

I hope you have a great holiday season. We are off next week, except I said I can't take next week off because I'm Belichick, no days off. I got to come back for a pot. I got to give the people some picks. I got to fire next week. week 17 so i'll be quiet not on social at montyline monocle make a picks all week and i'll be hosting a weekend pod audio only if you want so tune in next week but for the most part quiet

week on the volume happy holidays much love thank you for tuning in hug your mothers and ta-ta real smooth