The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Week 2 NFL Bets: Bears-Packers, Dolphins-Ravens, Panthers-Giants, Colts-Jaguars
Episode Date: September 17, 2022Alex Monaco shares his best bets for week 2 of the NFL season including Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins heading to Baltimore for a matchup with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, Baker Mayfield leading his... Panthers into New York to take on Saquon Barkley and the Giants, and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers looking to rebound from a tough week 1 against the Vikings as they face off with the Chicago Bears in Lambeau Field. #volume #herd #colincowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Welcome back into another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco.
So, hey, we win 9 and O in the Super Bowl, even pick Cooper Cup MVP, go reading and weep on my picks on the action network.
And we come back and we pick up where we left off three and one on week once outing on the show.
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and we give you winning picks.
So without further ado,
let's dive in head first into the week two.
Pool,
I'm going back to a couple of teams this week that I went on last week.
This is an interesting slate.
A lot of different ways you could go.
I will throw out some liens at the end
because I do feel good on a couple of these games,
not enough to dive in head first,
but I do feel comfortable going in on this Ravens team
minus three and a half at home against the dolphins.
I am loving it.
I am not liking it.
I am McDonald's loving it.
This Ravens team defensively week one against the Jets.
I know it was Flacco.
I know it was the Jets.
But I mean, my gosh, through three quarters until garbage time, really,
they give up a field goal, a field goal.
The defense is so unbelievably fundamentally sound for this team.
And they were without a couple of their key guys last year,
including Marcus Peters, love to see him back in healthy.
this club, where do you look if you're Tua trying to capitalize on moving the football against
this team, knowing that the dolphins ran with their new acquisition of running back, Chase Edmonds,
for 25 yards on 10 carries.
You ran the ball against New England last week at the most with your number one running back
for 25 yards.
If you think that Tua, who's nice and cozy in his little Ace Ventura laces out there in South Florida bubble, is going to go into a ruckus environment in Baltimore for a home opener and blow your socks off.
You're out of your Tenseltown mind, Jerry.
All right.
Lamar Jackson.
And let's not forget, this man didn't get paid.
He's on a contract year.
He's also from the area.
In Florida.
This is his favorite team growing up, if I'm not mistaken.
This game, especially with what the win streak broke last year in Miami between these two, means a lot.
I feel to Lamar.
And I love the fact that he came out through three tugs, two of them, a duberna, one to Bateman.
When we know there's questions about the weapons on this team, particularly because they lost Hollywood Brown.
Outside of Mark Andrews, where do they go?
Dobbin's in place.
So for them to not establish a run game,
for them, though, still easily with, with ease,
cover that six and a half against the Jets.
I mean, you got to love it.
Coming home against Tua.
And I got to be honest, I watched that game against New England.
You put up three points in the second half after being up 17-0.
I mean, you're up 17-0 and halftime, my guy McDaniel.
And you put up three points in the second half.
yeah, you do that against the Ravens, that three and a half number is going to get,
get up to eight and a half, nine and a half live real quick.
We'll say that.
I don't know where we feel comfortable.
Where do we feel comfortable about backing the dolphins here?
Because if you go to the public money right now, this is even more conviction of what I love.
The tickets, the bet slips are on Miami.
The money's on the Ravens.
the money is on the Ravens.
Not an enormous amount of discrepancy between the two.
Not quite pros versus Joe's to playoff teams.
But if you look right now and see that the money,
you can go to Vegas insider, a couple other sites,
the money is coming in on Baltimore,
but the public is on the dolphins.
There's a little bit of element of fandom here.
I think everyone's crowning this Dolphins team.
like literally they're the team to beat the new team to beat if you will 25 yards running
three points in the second half what are we going to do when they can't run the ball for
Miami and they got to rely Tyree kill was playing three flies up with two a jump
balls on Sunday I saw that ball let's let's let's call a spate of space
I mean, literally, an abysmal, unthinkable toss-up ball.
Tyreek went and grabbed it.
And Tyreek, he's acting like a great actor like De Niro
during the holidays promoting a Christmas movie.
The Christmas movie's going to be trash, my guy.
We know you're a good actor.
We know you're a good player.
Stop selling us on this movie that's Tua Tug of Iola.
He's not Patrick Mahomes.
Stop crowning him.
He went against the Ravens Ladder.
year. Mediocre numbers. Eight for 13. Oh my gosh. Lamar will absolutely, absolutely rise to the
occasion in this outing. Just know, if you take the dolphins, you are on the public side. You're on the
fan side. Three and a half is a tricky number. I'm not worried about it. There is a world where you
listen to this and you get a better number. You get a number. You get a minus three.
If you get a minus three, you have to do it. Lay in minus 180. You don't want to. I would put
them in a parlay potentially, but there's other teams. You'd rather put in a parlay. I got a three team
teacher at the end of the show. If it doesn't hit, I'm going to walk cross country like Forrest
Gump, grow a beard, think about my life, start reading for the first time since Roll Dahl's Matilda.
that's how drastic I will go
if my three team teaser
at the end of the show doesn't hit.
So I'm feeling gorgeous
and very confident,
very confident about the Ravens.
Who were, by the way,
seven and two in their last night against Miami?
Seven and two.
Seven and two.
Second pick.
Let's get into it.
I was on this team last week.
I am eager to jump on the line.
I'm going to take the Panthers again.
Again.
plus two on the road against the New York football giants,
another situation where I think recency bias plays a factor.
We get a team that lost, shouldn't have lost on an unbelievable comeback,
which I was very impressed with,
very, very impressed with how the Browns came up.
And this was the narrative last week in a couple of different situations.
and I got to be honest, I got to own the L.
I thought that the player that left the team was going to best the team.
I thought it was going to be the case with Russell Wilson Monday night against the Seahawks.
It wasn't.
I thought it was going to be Baker Mayfield against the Browns.
It wasn't.
But Baker was serviceable.
He really was.
And you look at where this giants got their offense from last.
weekend against the Titans. I mean, this game was a two touchdown game. The Giants can score a basket.
They're trolling at the beer pong table at half time. Yet a long run with Sequin, yet a lucky
busted coverage play to Sterling Shepard out outside of that. We are talking about possessions
plural. Dables pulling out his hair he doesn't even have any hair. He's screaming at Daniel
Times. I can't watch this. What are we doing? Throwing red zone interceptions. Nothing.
new here. Okay. They got lucky in that game. They really did. Let's remind ourselves
the Giants last year and Dables changing the company culture. I give them credit. It's a different
aura, different team. But this team didn't win back to back wins last year once. Once.
Let me tell you something about Baker Mayfield. Can't go back last year. This man's only two games
under 500 as a starter in the NFL. Let's not forget it. This man wins games. He's,
he's breaking wet-acrosses rule number six a lot of the time and John touching himself
in a negative way. But he is a winner, especially when he loses the week before. Six times
last year out of seven, six out of seven times the Brown's lost. Baker came back and got him a W.
Baker came back and got him a W.
So you tell me what team you want to back.
A team that Seqa and Barclay accounted for almost 60% of the offense last week with Danny Dimes.
Or a team that put up 17 points in the fourth quarter of the Browns are a top 10 defense.
Are they not?
They're certainly on the top half quality-wise of defensive clubs in the league.
and a team that lost that's coming in.
And Baker in his one game versus the Giants,
granted it was a little bit ago,
but my guy at 126 baster rating on 27 and 32,
doing the ball.
McCaffrey, first game action a while,
didn't really get going.
I like that Robbie Anderson's got tickets to the game,
got going.
Nice long hug.
I expect DJ more to be more involved.
There was a little bit of, we need to see how this offense can go out the gate with a new quarterback, little trials and trips.
The Giants are a good defense.
I'm not going to sit here and tell you otherwise.
Tannenhill, you're going to see some regression from this Titans offense this year.
I'm just telling you right now.
It's, it's, they beat a good team.
They didn't beat a great team.
And let's not forget what the Panthers defense can bring to the table.
There was only four teams that threw the ball that held offensive quarterbacks to under 200 yards passing last year.
The Panthers were one of four teams to hold quarterbacks to under 200 yards passing.
And the Panthers were one of them.
So what I'm getting at is if you're breaking down the keys of this game,
if Baker Mayfield can just manage and manage and manage and manage and not.
try to play outside of his comfort zone.
The Giants are a team that is
prone to mistakes. They don't
play fundamentally sound football.
Now they may turn that aura
around in due time. I don't
see it for this week
in this game.
Public money is
leaning Panthers. God, be honest.
I am on that side.
This is a week to week leak.
All right. We're also getting
two. You might even get two and a half. I'm not
and take the Panthers money line.
Take the points.
Look at the game last week.
The Giants won by one.
Could very well happen again.
I'll go with the team that had 17 points in the fourth quarter last week,
but did it against a very good defense.
Tennessee is a good defense,
but remind yourselves how it happened.
How did it happen for the Giants?
Busted coverage, freak run.
if Sequin somehow doesn't get off again,
which we haven't seen in multiple years for multiple weeks in a row,
we got a top four past defense from last year going against Danny Nichols,
Danny Pennies, whatever you want to call him.
Give me the Panthers plus two.
I'm going right back to SimCity here.
I'm swallowing a large amount of points.
I am swallowing a large.
Let's fix the fro here.
Amount of points.
I'm taking the Green Bay Packers on Fandle.
Minus nine and a half.
It is moved to as high as 10.
I'm getting it at nine and a half.
I am fading the Chicago Bears.
Everyone's favorite team this week, why?
Ask yourself why.
They played in a monsoon.
All right. School was canceled and the kids played outside in week one.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
The Bears didn't score at all in the first half.
At all.
They had 12 points in the fourth.
They had 19 in the game.
All right.
Fields was 8 for 17 for 121 yards.
Is this flag football numbers at recess?
I know.
It was weather contingent.
I'm telling you.
this team offensively should be inept, inept this year.
Okay.
Herbert was serviceable, 9 for 45 on the ground,
but you take away that Dante Pettus touchdown for 50 yards.
Oh my gosh.
The next man for receptions, David Montgomery, 3 for 24.
Pringle, no plural, one for 22.
and then St. Brown had one for 18.
Ladies and gentlemen,
a running back, a running back
led this Bears team in receptions.
Okay?
And they went against a guy
who had so much pressure on him and Trey Lance
that I don't think the man had any idea,
any idea what kind of environment he was walking into
at Soldier Field with a defense that was
ready to feast.
But here's the exciting thing
is that the Packers looked
abysmal. They looked unwatchable
last year, week one.
35-3,
the Saints beat them.
They messed around, came back,
smacked the lions around.
35-17 week two,
easy cover. Here we are.
And I'm going to spell it out for you.
This is betting in the NFL.
Week to week.
no better time to men in black than right now.
Forget what happened with Aaron Rogers on the road.
Aaron Rogers against the Vikings on the road normally catches an out.
That's a normal spot to lose.
I was trying to be,
I was trying to be smart and cute and take the Packers live in that Vikings game.
No.
Boktiari out, Jenkins out, two tackles out in your number one receiver
with two rookies coming in and you got caught.
and Watkins, and that's it with Tonian,
they didn't call the game correctly.
The game for this offense,
and it's going to be hard for a back-to-back MVP,
to agree,
but they need to run the ball with their two-headed monster.
Because Dylan and Jones were both running the ball well
last week against the Vikings, they went away from it.
If Aaron Rogers can correct his energy,
which he did not till the end of the game,
because again,
couples in the middle of an argument can't collect their composure. Brady does. Rogers doesn't.
Don't even get me started in the psychology behind Aaron Rogers. Party of one, no wife, no kids.
Aaron Rogers know this. Six and no straight up.
Five and one versus the spread at Lambo versus Chicago in his last six has not lost to the
Bears since not only pre-pandemic, well, well before.
2018, I was doing a betting show in Vegas.
Moneyline Monica wasn't even birthed.
I didn't have a dad bought in the first trimester.
So many different things in life were happening the last time.
Aaron Rogers lost the Bears.
He's 22 and 5 against it.
Last year, this team, three and one after a loss.
This team last year, they were the best home favorite and cover in the NFL.
They only didn't cover two times at home.
One of them was in the playoffs.
You have to feel good also, and I can't believe it,
but the money, the public, the tickets,
are on the bears.
What?
I know it's a divisional opponent and an enormous number.
You can make the same case for the Seahawks and the Niners,
right around the same number, eight and a half, nine and a half pending when you fire on Thandau.
You probably want to take the Seahawks.
Remind yourself of the outlier game.
The sharps, the pros, they will tell you the biggest factor for a live dog in sports
betting is weather.
And that weather mucked up everything.
The Bears might have covered the seven.
I don't see them winning that game.
There's no way.
There's no way.
The Bears only won two in a row twice last year.
They only won two in a row.
And the Packers beat them in two different ways.
They beat them in that 45-30 shootout the second time.
They beat him by 10 in a humble defense led to offense first time.
They beat them by 10 both times.
Okay.
Aaron Rogers at home against Lambo.
Are the Bears at Lambo?
Hasn't lost to Chicago since 2015 in Lambo.
Just straight up.
He's not losing.
He's not losing this game.
Okay.
Since Rogers first year as a starter,
the Packers as a home favorite are the best in the NFL.
Okay, they're the only team to cover over 60%.
Aaron Rogers, 65, 39, and three pushes against the spread
as a home favorite since the first year
he started under center.
Okay.
The Bears since that same year,
second worst road underdog cover
in the entire NFL at 42%.
You come with me?
We're 62.5% historically.
You go against me.
You jamming with 42%
and you're on the public side.
The Bears,
don't know what they are yet.
I'm not saying the Packers have it all figured out.
If LeFleur, if he can get a little bit on his global gym here, okay,
the other LaFleur and not play like he's trying to keep up with the other team.
It was like they're trying to go tip for town off and stop running the ball through Aaron Rogers.
have a collective conversation.
Run to pass, run to pass, run to pass.
Aaron Rogers will pick you apart if that's the case.
I love a heavy favorite and a big number here.
If the bear's cover, the bear's cover.
I am picking this week, except for the Ravens,
teams off losses that are going to be hungry.
And historically, the numbers are on my side.
And we wrap up with a cupcake teaser.
We had a cupcake parlay last week.
We were on the charters over the Raiders,
which wasn't cupcake per se.
And we had the chiefs over the Cardinals.
Both ended up covering,
but we hit them on a plus 117, I believe.
This one brought you by a Fandul.
Three team teaser, eight points.
You can tease me, tease me, lemon, squeeze me all you want up to 10 if you want.
I want even money.
Plus 100.
I'm putting the Packers in there to,
to win the game.
This brings it down to minus one and a half.
I'm on the Rams minus two and a half at home against the Falcons.
And I'm on the Broncos minus one and a half at home against the Texans.
Even money.
If the Rams can't beat the Falcons on 10 days of prep,
if the Broncos at home can't beat the Texans who blew a 20 to 3 lead
against the Colts and the Packers,
who absolutely own the Bears, can't beat them,
straight up. I told you. I'm walking across the country. Let's start. You know why I'm on the
Packers? Not not going to dive in. Let's start with the Broncos here. Fresh off that Monday,
L. I was on the wrong side. And I took Broncos live money line, sick to my stomach, canceling dates
over here. They didn't give up a second half point, the Broncos defense. As abysmal as
Hackett's offensive play calling, clock management, lack of being in that moment. Lack of being in that
moment knowing what to do, leaning on your veteran quarterback, all of it.
Baby back 60 plus yard field goal, all of it.
The defense shut Gino Smith down in the second half.
They didn't give up a point, a basket.
There was a lot of things I saw with that Broncos team.
They're going to correct.
Why was Gordon getting the ball more than Giovante Williams?
I'm watching the man in cash.
Shannon's going ballistic.
I'm going ballistic.
Williams got seven for 40 for 43.
Gordon got 12 of 58.
Why?
I'm not saying,
don't like Melvin Gordon, why is he on the goal line when you have a stud potential
breakout running back for the Broncos? Infuriating. We take a look at the Texans.
They could be pesky. They did improve defensively. There's still the Texans. This is still a team
that is expected to win four games. They dropped five or seven on the road last year on the
spread. On the spread, they gave up 20 to 3 like faster, faster than me breaking my
intermittent fasting at noon. Can't wait to get to the carbs, baby. That team collapsed at the end.
Russ's home field advantage against a team inferior off a loss. There is zero
reason why the Broncos should lose this game. And they have, they have to have this game.
They're in the AFC West for goodness sakes. And then I'm going to take the Rams. All right.
The Rams and Sean McVeigh off a loss last year. They only lost back to back one time.
It was a three game loose tree. They only lost two times in a row, which was three, one time last year.
10 days off to sit on that bills out.
They did a lot wrong as well.
Didn't get Alan Robinson involved.
Cam Acres with a fantasy goose egg.
We can't hear that enough.
I do contest, though, until that fourth quarter,
the Rams played pretty darn good defense against your NFL MVP favorite, Josh
out, and one of the most prolific offenses in the league.
I do think that the Falcons Cup.
at 10 and a half is an enormous number.
Enormous.
But they also gave up 17 points down the stretch in the fourth quarter to the Saints.
The Falcons are going to Falcons like the Chargers are going to charge.
Like the Jets are going to jet.
I think it's a huge number.
Now will Cordell Patterson run for 5.5 yards at carry against this Rams defense?
Absolutely not.
This Rams defense was top five in Saxon interceptions.
I can't say it enough last year.
And I think there's a world where they got better.
outside of Arm Miller and the Bobby Wagner swap.
This team, it just comes down to execution.
The Falcons defense has a ton of holes in it.
You saw it in that comeback for the Saints.
If James can come back against him, Stafford certainly can,
but I don't think this team's going to trail.
I think this Rams team comes out, establishes dominance,
has a much better game plan.
Sean McPay is a photographic memory.
Let's not forget it.
This man is well aware, well aware of every single play
that he called. He's going to take this personally.
It's the first time since 1999 people that both Super Bowl representatives
from both conferences last week one shouldn't have happened.
And the Rams got a tough draw.
That was a Super Bowl preview matchup.
Bengals got trath, but that was a tough, tough draw.
I got the Rams in a bounce back spot.
My other liens for this week,
I actually feel really good,
really, really good about the Jaguars plus four and a half at home against the Colts.
Divisional game home dog.
The Jaguars gave that game back to the commanders.
This Colts team, it's wide and touch Buck Saints.
Certain teams have certain teams numbers.
The Colts can't beat the Jacks.
The Jags have covered the last five series meetings.
between these teams and they've won and covered their last six hosting the Colts.
Do you remember last week, last year's week 17?
Do you remember it?
I remember it.
I certainly remember week 18 because we got 17 weeks now.
Carson Wentz was fired.
Fired because he couldn't beat the Jaguars.
That was an 11.
11.5 point line if I'm not mistaken.
Jaguars won out right.
Indy, they don't know what they are.
Matt Ryan had to, he thought he was back in Falcons black and red trying to come back against the Texans, 20 to 3.
This Jags team made plays on defense and made plays on offense.
How about the rookie first overall draft pick, Trayvon Walker getting on the board forcing a turnover?
Gotta love that.
Jaguars at home, I really, really like this number and I'll leave you on that.
64% of the bets are on the Colts.
93% of the money is on the Jaguars right now.
64% of the bets on the Colts,
almost all of the money is on the Jaguars.
Give me the Jags with the points.
I got to leave you with a dog.
But the four official plays as we wrap up and get you out of here.
I got the Ravens, minus three and a half over the fence.
I got the Panthers plus two against the Giants on the road.
I get the Packers minus nine and a half at home against the Bears.
And I am dancing with three team eight point teaser,
Rams minus two and a half,
Broncos minus one and a half,
Packers minus one and a half.
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I love, I love the Ravens to smoke the Dolphins. Dolphins can't run the football right now,
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Mark, call it emotional.
Call it sharp because the public money's on the fins.
Jerry.
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All content will be jamming on Moneyline, Monaco. You have yourself a wonderful weekend.
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