The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Week 3 NFL Bets: Packers-Bucs, Bills-Dolphins, Ravens-Pats, Saints-Panthers

Episode Date: September 23, 2022

Alex Monaco shares his best bets for Week 3 of the NFL season including Aaron Rodgers and the Packers taking on Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, Josh Allen and the Bills vs. Tua Tagovailoa's Dolphins in a potential shootout, Jameis Winston and the Saints looking to stay ahead of the Baker Mayfield's Carolina Panthers in a divisional matchup, and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens facing off against Mac Jones, Bill Belichick and the Patriots. #Volume #herd #colincowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. It's the best gambling show ever presented by Fandu. Football season is here and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandul. The app is safe, secure, easy to use. Fandul always has exclusive offers. When you win, you'll get paid fast. Fandu has also a ton of ways to play. Got the spread, the money line, the over, unders, team totals, player props, and so much more.

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467369. Tennessee redline, 1,800-89, 9. 7889, 1-800-522-4-7-0-Yoming, or visit www.1-800 gambler.net, West Virginia. All right, welcome into another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco, week three in the NFL. I am fired up. The fro is up naturally. We are above 500 on the show. All picks.

on the Action Network where I give a lot more plays than I do on the pod. It may sound like I love favorites. Let's not forget last week, if you rock with me on the Action Network, you made money. I had some ugly, ugly dogs. I was on and convinced myself to take the Cowboys with the points over the Bengals, the Jets with the points over the,

unthinkable Cleveland Browns at the end. We took nice points. Jags plus four was an unofficial but bonus play on last week's episode. So again, the Monaco Money Meter. We are officially right now after a three and one week one, two and two week two, though, if you count the Jags, we're three and two. we're staring right now at five and three. And the reality is, if you look at two of those three losses,

we were on the Ravens in the unthinkable L against the dolphins. And we lost on a 59-yard game losing time-expiring field goal week one on the Panthers over the Browns. Outside of that, we have one loss. So just to give you perspective of who you're listening to here on the herd feed, of course, Uncle Colin, all-time Johnny Stock. in honor to be here. Just jacked up. Let's get into it.

Ton of research goes into today's episode. Laid the land. I don't have three picks for you or four. We're going five. I got four against the spread in a cupcake parlay that has to hit actually around plus 172 on Fanduel. Let's get into it. I am so excited to talk about these picks.

I don't even know what game to start with, but I'm going to start with all social media on Money Line Monaco. Make sure to check me out. Insta, TikTok, Alex Monaco on Twitter. And again, all my picks on Action Network. So we are dancing on. Let's get into it. First pick of the Moneyline Monica, week three pod. I'm taking the bucks over the Packers. Line movement has happened. I will read it to you right now. We are seeing. on Fandu, a minus 1.5 point spread for the Tampa Bay Bucks at home against Aaron Rogers and whatever that haircut is. It's minus 1.5 or a minus 116 on the money line. It's minus 108 for minus 1.5. Minus 116. Look, just take minus 116. All right. It's worth it. It's a money line play.

Now, this line is subject to change. We've seen it at 2.5. I saw it up to 3 earlier in the A lot of this number dropping towards a pickum is the Tampa Bay injuries. Mike Evans is out. Chris Godwin's questionable. You know, their offensive line going through some stuff. And they had to sign Cole Beasley this week. So we do have, but I'll all back it up a little bit of trepidation with this Tampa Bay offense. But my inkling of this game, it's about the Bucs defense against.

Aaron Rogers and the offense. And I have a ton of trends I can give you of what the Bucs are. They're 11 and 3 against the spread in their last 14 at home. I love that. The Packers, yeah, have yet to cover a spread on the road in their last four road games. As good of a cover as they are at home. They are an abysmal on the road cover. The Bucks come in, winning six of their last seven coming off of last year. They've covered five of their last six in the NFC against the spread. The Packers are only two and five ATS in their last seven head to head against Tampa and two and five ATS in their last seven in Tampa Bay down at Raymond James. So head to head in general, we remember what happened in Lambo two NFC championships ago. It was COVID, but Tom Brady came

in. That's Scottie Miller halftime touchdown. People don't forget. Rogers numbers in Tampa. Let me break them down to you. His last outing in Tampa Bay, 16 for 35, zero touchdowns, two interceptions for 160 yards throwing. His season stats this year, the man's averaging 214 passing yards, two tugs, one interception. His numbers are down.

This is not your back-to-back-to-back NFL MVP. Matter of fact, and I was on the Packer, over the Bears Sunday night primetime perfect bounce back spot this is the world we live in hammered it was one of my plays Packers minus nine and a half over the Bears it's a chalky play it's a cash play he covers against this Chicago Bears team what does he do though against other grown men leaders of men and men and menaces on the defensive side like Todd Bowles in this club is do we know what we are backing when we have Tampa in this game it's the number one defense in the league right now.

They've given up six and a half points in two games. Six and a half points. They gave up a field goal to the baby back cowboys. Don't even tell me that wasn't a DAC full game. He got hurt in the last quarter or a second of last possession. But get about embarrassing. Embarrassing L. The Dallas Cowboys.

Could not feel better about that out. And then they shut out Winston, who threw three. interceptions for the first time since December of 2019. The turnover machine is back, Jerry. And they were held to a field goal until garbage time trying to come back against Tampa who ultimately won 2010 last week. And I was on the bucks and the sharps were on the Saints. Vita Valle, Golsden White, Levanti, David, Shaquille Barrett, Dean with a pick last week,

Logan, Ryan, Antoine Winfield, Carlton Davis, this defense is stacked. Yes, we are a little bit decimated, a wide receiver here for a Tampa backing this week. But they're averaging 112 on the ground, baby. Fournet ran all over a very good Dallas run D week one. Now, they were held in check run D. Wise is a top four run D. They went against in New Orleans last week. But I'll tell you right now, six yards of carry for Fournet against the Cowboys is nothing to slouch at and how Tommy spread the ball around.

And it's such a strategic play. And Colin talked about this. The Cole Beasley signing's got to be irate for Aaron Roders and the Packers on a perfect week. Here they are not giving him enough support and weapons. And then as Colin alluded to, Tommy wants. Tommy asks, Tommy gets. He needs a wide receiver.

So boom, plug and play Cole Beasley, who had in the 80s in receptions last year. Perryman went for three for 45 last week. Scotty Miller, we remember him three for 34. Russell Cage had five receptions for 28 yards. So Evans, who only had three for 61 last week, is out. Godwin could still suit up. I think he will. Don't worry about that.

That right there, I just gave you 11 receptions from three receivers. Brady will figure out a way. He doesn't have what Aaron Rogers has because he's a married man. Yeah. Yeah, I believe in that narrative wholeheartedly. I'll take the married man over the single man. in this outing 10 out of 10 times. Tommy knows who he is.

Aaron Rogers is dating who? Green Ivy, blue ivy? I don't have time in the day to talk about a 37-year-old who is simply lost at sea, I think, in this offense right now. He has been covered by a bad Bears team. We have a better defense. we have a better quarterback. We have a team that has a better identity.

Do the Packers know what they are yet on offense? Are they going to have the discipline to run the ball with Dylan and Aaron Jones this week? Because this Bucks run D now for the third straight year is holding teams under 100 yards. Only two weeks of sample size, but 85 yards on the ground is not enough against this Bucks D. I go on and on and on. We'll keep it moving, but I am loving the Bucks. all than the bugs, put it in right now. All right.

I'm nervous about this one. I'm sick about it. I really am. I'm going to take the Dolphins plus six and a half against the Buffalo Bills. I got to throw a dog in here. I have to throw a dog. I've thought about the commanders. I like that number plus six and a half against the Eagles divisional game.

Short week, emotional win for the Eagles. I don't want to back Carson Wentz. I do think the Vikings could cover against the Lions. That's not a plus six I want in Detroit. We stay away from that. Jacks plus seven against the Chargers. I'll flirt with it. Don't want to jump on it either.

There's a lot of pick-em games and three-point spreads this week. Colts actually is another one I flirt with. I will stay off it, but I may plug it in on the action network. but I will go with what is historically a sharp play. Divisional home dog taking a number we like and an appetizing one at that. And we're getting six and a half on Fandle. This line has moved up to six. The dolphins plus six and a half.

And I don't want to talk about the bills because I have faded the bills now two weeks in a row. And the only thing worse I've done is back to Panthers two weeks in a row. I mean literally fading good teams, backing bad teams. Betting makes you a sick man. Do I look rested? Do I look rested? But I watched and I was on the wrong side of it. A 21 4th quarter, 21.4th quarter come back down 3514.

It's still only the sixth time since the 1920s. Then an NFL team has been trailing by 21 or more in the fourth than they come back. Two, four TDs and a fourth, Jerry. That hasn't been done for any of. NFL quarterback. Since my guy, Sage Rosenfeld's fellow tribesmen, actually a buddy. We potted once. Since 2001, it has not been done. Sage did that. Six touchdowns for Tua, 36 of 50, 469 yards. The dolphins are averaging 31 points per game. Just a few games below the bills who I We'll go out on a woman say, cannot possibly keep up what they're putting up right now.

Plus 55 in points for, verse points against. They got two teams in a row trolling at the beer pong table in the second half. No one hit a cup. No one hit a basket. Zero points for the Rams in the second half on Thursday night, week one. Zero points for the Tennessee Titans Monday night. But those were prime time games. We know what South Florida.

is, Jerry. My guy Ace Ventura is going to make sure that a couple of those bill starters have a great weekend down in South Florida, the adult Disneyland. I went there for a week, all right? Two buttons came undone on my top shirt. I'm showing more chest that anyone wants to see. I'm loose as a goose. I'm living. I didn't even want to book a return ticket home. That's how fun I had in my end. Is this Dolphins team going to cover six and a half? I really do think so. They are 4 and 0 in their last four home games versus teams with a winning road record covering at home. They're 6 and 1 in their last seven at home against the spread. And the bill's awful huge win, 14 points or more, only 2 and 5 against the spread in their last

seven. And call it important, call it not. The bill's on grass. They ain't the same team. They're 0.4 against the spread in their last. four on grass. Now, this dolphins team, defensively speaking, you're going to say this. They gave up 38 points to the Ravens. They are historically 11 and 2 against the spread in their last 13 games when they give up 30 points or more in the previous. We have every single trend right now, right now on our side with the dolphins.

Let's talk about where the money is in Vegas. why wouldn't we? Let's see how much the public is hammering the Buffalo bill. 74% of the bet, 77% of the money is on Buffalo. The public is hammering them. I even heard an analyst say today, there's little things in Florida. They got to be visitors on the sunny side,

the humidity, the heat, This is on the road. Yes, the bills went to the Rams on the road. Was that game on grass? No, it wasn't. The top three receivers in the NFL right now, receiving yards wise, two of them are in Miami colors. Waddle your way over to the Jack and Jill Tyreek Hill baby.

Because this team has two studs that have combined for 34 receptions, 524 yards and 5 receiving touchdown. I just see a battle, a back and forth battle. This is an inflated number. This number was four and a half before the bills ran the Titans out of the building. This is a number play. I'm not saying the Dolmins are going to win. I'm saying they're going to cover.

Now, could get ugly. Bills could roll them. I got to give you a dog. we're taking a playoff team. And I don't know if you saw that Andrew Hawkins news. He called out Mike McDaniel, greatest offensive mind in the game on Twitter. In 2019,

this team is for real. And I do feel their defense is underperformed in the last two weeks. But let's not remind ourselves, let's remind ourselves, as I segue to my next pick, that this team held the Patriots to nothing. I mean, the Patriots did nothing. Week one. Nothing. Seven points.

So I'm comfortable with the number. I'm comfortable with the play and I'm comfortable fade in the public. I'm not comfortable going against the best team in the NFL though. You got to do gross things in betting. We keep it pushing. I'm on another favorite. Shocking. But it's a low number. If you can get at two and a half, I tip my fro to you. It's at three right now on Fanduel. There might be some movement. I'm awesome. If there's a hook, I'm on it at minus three. The public is also taking the home dog here. Why?

I don't know because I'm about to dive in head first with it. 60% of the bets, 81% of the money is on the Carolina Panthers at home of two losses in a row to cover the spread against the New Orleans Saints. A Panthers team that I didn't have to cancel one day. I had to cancel multiple because I backed them over the weekend at plus two against the Giants. They altered my life and my life style for the week, Jerry. You don't think we're taking these bets? I'll send you slips. We lost.

How do I put this? A good amount of a Manhattan month of rent. But we digress. So I'm off Baker Mayfield. I am off progress. I am on team state farm. I am done. I'm done with the Carolina Panthers.

I mentioned this to you earlier, what the Tampa Bay defense did to Winston. I think he corrects not just his vision, but his decision making this week, three picks for the first time since December of 2019. Saints team just has Carolina's number. They're 10 and three against him since 2017. They've covered four of the last five against the Panthers after a loss.

and this Panthers team, there is no home field advantage. There's six and 22 in their last 28 home games. They've dropped seven straight. Seven straight. Here's an encouraging number if you're on the Saints. So we know they have an excellent defense, smothering defense. Their key number is can they score 18 points? 17 points or less in five of their last nine games.

They're one and four in those outings. When they get 18 or more, four and O, four and O. Carolina comes into this starting for the third time in four years, oh and two to start the season. Baker comes off a 14 of 29 game. It's a 10th career game. My guy's gone for 50% completion percentage of less. And those Baker may feel back teams when he puts up those numbers,

is two and eight, two and eight averaging 14 points per game. I don't see any explosiveness or identity in the Carolina offense. Matt Ruhl's an offensive guy. I think their defense is keeping them in everything. I think the under is probably the easier play in this game, but I don't want to come on a podcast and give you an under. But I should have taken the under in Carolina and the Giants. I'm telling you to take the under and the Saints and the Panthers.

It's going to go under. It is not going to be a shootout. It's going to be a disgusting ball game. But the Saints are averaging 125 on the ground. And I watched a good portion of the Bucks Saints game, rewatched it, just bad decision making for the Bucks. And I know the Panthers have an excellent past D, but I am more confident in the Saints defense

and the run game of New Orleans to just play this out because Baker's bound to make a mistake. This is a game who makes less mistakes. And I think we're getting a Saints team here at a very good number when we know that they're better than the Panthers. Like, buy a lot. Pie a lot. This Panthers team is trash. I believed in that.

They're garbage. They just lost to the Giants. I don't believe in the Giants for a second. I'm on them over seven and a half wins. That's a different conversation. It's an 8 and 19 they couldn't beat. The Saints, a lot of Sharps have them, win in the South.

By low on New Orleans this week at minus three. And I'm back. I'm one in one with them. I have to take this. I can't, I can't not take this. It's in my head. I have to do it.

I got to take the Ravens minus two and a half right now on Fandul on the road against New England. I have to do it. We're getting under a field goal. This New England offense is inept. It's inept. You can't even score with them in Madden. They're averaging 12 points per game, people, 12 points per game.

The Ravens are averaging 31, 31. The paths have put up in two games, 24, what the Ravens put up in one outing against the Jets, not a terrible D on the road, week one. Here's something I learned on the favorites pod. Great podcast. Simon's as sharp as it gets. Chad's phenomenal.

Highly recommend. Great sports betting pot. The Ravens ran for 6,400 yards on Sunday covering dolphins wide receivers. 6400 yards. Now they get to go against Nelson Aguilar, Jacoby Myers, and a pack of Skittles. the paths haven't scored more than seven points in a quarter. They've only forced one intersection, only six sacks through two games. The Ravens, the Ravens, okay?

More pass yards, more yards, more rush yards, than this New England team without a couple of pieces. J.K. Dobbins, offensive. line pieces. This isn't a fully healthy roster yet for Baltimore. I think we're getting again, New Orleans can be a playoff team and a lackluster NFC. The Ravens are still poised to win the AFC North. They're the team to be. Mac Jones comes in 60% completion with a pick last week. Nelson Aguilar, the game of his life six for 110 and tug. That will not happen against Baltimore's defense.

Baltimore's a gut check team, a great company culture. If you look at the trends of what we're doing here in this episode, we're taking great company cultures. Colin talks about culture all the time. This Ravens team has too much pride. Also got this from the guys on the favorites that Johnny Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson

are the best ROI return on investment in the first half since Lamar's been in the league. most profitable bet Ravens preseason, Ravens first half. So they may come out and look good. We're getting a Patriots team off a win, a Ravens team off a loss. Topsy Turvy, baby. I feel very comfortable. Taking Baltimore here.

The Seahawks, the Colts who are winless and the Cowboys who have a backup quarterback, really the Seahawks do, too, let's be honest, are the only teams that have less points per game than your New England Patriots. What are we scared of of New England? Belichick doesn't suit up. They don't have an offensive coordinator. They don't have an offensive identity. And the Ravens are only coming in Snickers, hangary, that they lost a game. They simply gave away. I mean, those are historic comebacks. We are backing a team off a historic comeback.

Favorites guys are on the Patriots, by the way. I'm on the Ravens. I was on the Bucks last week. Everyone was on the Saints. It happens. Great number. Great number. And I can test that Harbao will out coach Belichick this week.

And I got a cupcake parlay here for you to round out the show. Real quick, get you out of here. Bengals, Chargers, Vikings, all on the, the money line, pays plus 172, almost two to one on Fanduel. Let's get into it real quick. Action, rapid fire chargers. A little worried about Herbert's midsection got absolutely rocked, but he backdoor covered for us.

We were on the chargers with the four and a half. He did us a solid. This Jags defense has forced three turnovers, week one, against Carson Wentz and the commanders and three turnovers against Matt Ryan and the Colts. never in the history of Jags football have they forced three straight in three games. Herbert's got six tugs, one mistake through two weeks. All right. This Jaguars team is good.

I think they cover the seven. I love, love the Chargers at home on extra rest, awful loss against an inferior team coming in and doing what they do, baby. win the turnover battle, let Herbert make his plays, let the defense do what they do. I mean, this defense is relentless. Dogs everywhere. Bosa, Mac, Derwin, James, J.C. Jackson. It goes on.

Love the Chargers. Vikings. At home off a loss. Money line. Not asking you to take a minus six, even though I think they could cover. Eight and one versus the Lions in their last nine games. Here's another one. Lions have put up 35 in the last two.

They've never done three straight. In franchise history. Justin Jefferson off a terrible game, never gone back to back, 50 yards less receiving. Gotta love Justin Jefferson props. Highly recommend. It's the same thing with the Derek Henry play, and I threw it out on the pod. Derek Henry didn't score the week prior. He had scored seven straight.

You have to take it. They score once. It's with D. Henry. Justin Jefferson's hitting over on receptions, receiving yards, and getting in the end zone this week. Mark, my words. Kirk's not throwing three interceptions. and this is what he does. I hammered the Eagles on the Monday pod.

I was correct to the oomth degree, baby. It was a perfect spot to fade cousins, two in 10 on Monday night football. Kirk, non-primetime cousins. Shout out to volume sports for great work on that social video. I ripped them the shreds. But now I'm going to back him because that's what he does when no one's watching.

He balls. He balls. And he will ball against the lions. And I have to take the Bengals on the money line. I mean honestly. Burroughs sacked more than anyone. 13 times for goodness sake, more I&Ts than TDs. This is the Jets off an emotional window.

Okay. Flacco's only gone four touchdowns, no I&Ps, three times in his career and Sunday was one of them against the Browns. The Jets scored twice in the final two minutes. They've scored once in the final two minutes. It's 2012. Since 2012. I'm telling you.

You buy low on the Bengals. The Jets is still the Jets. Maybe they cover, not touching the spread, probably will. But the Bengals have to win. Joey Burrow, fellow colleague here on the Volume Sports Network. All right. That is a wonderful, wonderful episode. We are on the box to beat the Packers, the Saints to cover minus three against the Panthers.

We're on the Finns plus six and a half at home against the bill. we are on the Ravens minus two and a half against the Patriots. We are on a little three team money line cupcake parlay Chargers to beat the Jags, Vikings to beat the Lions, Bengals to beat the Jets. I mean, that feels great.

So we're out of here. You, as always, make sure to hug your mothers. But before I leave, I got a fan tool absolute got, got to get in

on the action. Have to. Have to. Here it is. You can get in on the Monday night football action with Fando, America's number one sportsbook by joining today to get started with $150 and free bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. Just sign up with promo code Monaco to get in on the action.

You could turn game day into payday all season long Monday night football. This one coming up, little giants, little cowboys. Everyone's on the G-Men, Cooper Rush, though, excellent game manager. I have to take the Cowboys. I think the under's the play. It's an ugly, ugly game. Maybe Zeke, little same game parlay anytime tug. He's got to get fantasy on or something.

And that's what I'm feeling out the gate here. But play your way and bet more than just the final score. Wager on everything. Touchdowns are totally ours. It catches. You can even combine your bets for a chance. at a bigger payout with the same game parlay, as I just mentioned, little Cowboys Money Line under, Zeke to get in, C.D. Lamb over receiving yards.

Don't fumble your chance to get $150 in free bets, winner-or-lose with promo code Monica. Make every moment more with Fandual, official sportsbook partner of the NFL. National disclaimer, 21 plus in select states versus online real money, wager only, $10 first deposit, required bonus issue as non-witrable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt restrictions applies. see terms at sportsbook. Fandul.com.

Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler. Visit fandul.com forward slash RG, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia. 1-800, next step or text next step to 533342, Arizona, 188, 78, 7-777 or visit ccpg.org forward slash chat, Connecticut. 1-8009 with it.

Indiana, visit KSgamblinghelp.com, Kansas, 1877-7-7-0. Stop, Louisiana, 18778, Hope, New York, or text Hope, New York, 4-667-9, New York, Tennessee Red Line, 1-800-9-9-7-8-9, Tennessee, 1-800-5-2-4-7-0-Wyoming, or visit 1-800gambler.net, West Virginia. We are out of here, sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco. Can we keep the winning ways going?

I say we do. We'll see you on the other side. Tautau Real Smith.