The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Week 4 Bets: Bills-Ravens, Broncos-Raiders, Cowboys & Eagles on upset alert?

Episode Date: October 1, 2022

 Alex Monaco shares his best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season starting with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills heading to Baltimore as favorites against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. He then turns his attention to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars taking on Jalen Hurts and the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, Carson Wentz and the Commanders battling Cooper Rush, Micah Parsons, and the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC East clash, and Russell Wilson's Broncos traveling to Las Vegas for a matchup with Derek Carr, Davante Adams, and the winless Raiders. #Volume #herd #colincowherdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Hope, New York, 4-67369. Tennessee Redline, 1-8-8-9-9-9. 7889, 1-800-522-4-7-0-0-Yoming, or visit www.1-800 gambler.net, West Virginia. Welcome me to another episode of sports gambling with Moneyline, Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco. Happy NFL week for Let's Cook. We are looking to stay above 500 on the pod through three weeks. We are cash in tickets. This week, another fascinating slate.

I got a dog. I got a couple humble favorites. I'm thinking about giving you a little Hail Mary dog parlay, a little dog day at the end. Because we've seen so many trap bets already through three weeks. I'll let you know what the numbers are. I'm firing on what to take. If you like what I'm laying down.

And of course, we'll always break down where the money is in. Vegas, Vegas Insider, great source among others. Don't forget to subscribe rate review. I'm on all social media at MoneyLine Monaco on Twitter, Alex Monaco. And we get into it here. All picks posted on Action Network. What's wrong, Paul? Here we go.

We're starting out with the Marquis AFC matchup. This is sensational. Here we go. Bills on the road, off a loss. against the Ravens awful win and the line on Fandul is minus three for the bills and I am jumping on it

like I haven't backed the Ravens for three weeks in a row. If you've been rocking with me since week one, took the Ravens over the Jets, took the Ravens week two, sick about it over the Finns. I joined the Finns on a betting bandwagon we cashed last week on the show over the bills,

took the Ravens again on the show, Over the Patriots loved it. Sharps loved New England. I did not. I often look where the money is. Sharp versus Square, Sharp versus your average public lad. I got to be honest.

This week, I simply cannot justify taking the Baltimore Ravens at home. And it starts out with one betting trend that I love. And it cashed, I believe, over 60% last year. You take a team. blindly. And we're getting the best NFL team in the league right now, as far as I'm concerned, when healthy. A team off a loss, not covering, versus a team the week prior covering, going against one another. You take the team that didn't cover, you're cash in more times than you

didn't. On top of that, the bills are six one and one against the spread in their last eight games following a straight up loss. Six, one and one. You may be wondering, what are the Baltimore Ravens after a cover? Two and nine against the spread in their last 11 games. Two and nine for six, one and one. And we get in to our talking points. And it starts out with this Buffalo defense, giving up the least amount of yards on defense in the league with 214 going

against a Ravens defense, who gives up the most at 458? Ironic that the bills hung almost 500 yards of offense on Miami down in South Florida. This is a top two pass defense in Buffalo at 156 a game. Imagine giving up only 156 yards of passing offense. Josh Allen can do that in two drives. Two drives. Ravens give up the most passing yards due three weeks, 353. Bills are a top two run deep giving up 57 on the ground. Where is Baltimore going to go if they cannot take deep shots?

Did you see Waddle and Tyreek Hill balling all over the field? No, you barely saw them on the field because they got a victory if you're with me on the Wednesday pod. Miami did. that hasn't happened in 40 years as far as under 20 minutes of possession. They barely ran 25 plays of offense. Now, you could argue, Josh Allen, this offense comes in a little fatigued, but let me remind you that what happens in South Florida,

which was part of my thinking last week when we got the points in the divisional dog at home, plus the added home field advantage of Miami covering six of their last seven. You had to factor that in. They looked gas. He had multiple bills players in and out for cramps. It is a real, not only adult Disneyland off the field, but on the field, he, humidity. I work with my guy Eric Coleman.

Shout out New York Jets, E.C. He tells me it's even more gnarly to play down there in December than September. He played them once a year. I mean, down there once a year. Unbelievable. So I look at this game in a couple of ways. The trends there lean us. The Buffalo offense, who by the way, Josh Allen came in career high with completions,

42 last week against a very stingy Miami defense. But Ben, but don't break, I should say defense. He completed his first 11 balls of the day. This Ravens D last weekend gave up 26 points to Mack Jones and the Patriots offense, who looked inept in week one and two. Inept, previously averaging 12 points per game. I do not feel confident in Lamar at home without proving to us with J.K. Dobbins still on the mend

that they have a real run game. Now, Lamar's been stretching the field and throwing deep balls. What does Buffalo do very well on offense that they don't do on defense? They give up very little big plays. and they stretch the field on offense. If you go position by position right now and what kind of form these two teams are in right now,

you have to lean. And Colin does this. It's a great theory. Take the best players on the field, the top five or the top 10 if it's football. You cannot argue that the bills have six or seven of the better players. players on the field. Can Lamar Jackson beat the bills by himself? I simply don't think so. The bills off a loss. You're talking to a guy listening to a man that has faded the bills for three

weeks. I'm one and two, ATS fading Buffalo. I couldn't be higher. We know the stat. Colin talked about it this week. The bills in one possession games, 0 and 7 against the spread. When they beat you, they run you out of the building. I'm not backing a Baltimore team that gave up a historic number in a fourth quarter against the dolphins, up 21, and let Matt

Jones throw all over them. Lamar had to continue to make plays there were a lot of sharps on the under in that game. We have Josh Allen off a loss, angry, snickers, angry. And you have Baltimore off a win. I think

Baltimore is lucky right now. to be honest that they got away with a New England win. Because a couple of fluky plays in that one, and it goes the other way. The tickets in the public, as we segue to pick number two, if you're curious right now, as far as against the spread with minus three, 52% of the bets,

that's the slips, are on the Ravens, 84% of the money. That is some big discrepancy. That tells me Sharp's already made a purchase at Ravens plus three and a half. It does. 84% of the money compared to just

5248 split as far as tickets. Public is split on this. Sharps are on the Ravens. Your boys on the bills, Mafia. I, how you doing? Pick number two. dancing in Philly. This number is way too big,

and I cannot wait to take it. And I backed Jacksonville as a dog. I thought it was a hustle on a trap play by Vegas, moving the line against the Chargers. Jacksonville goes in and routes. Herbie Hancock, routes the L.A. Chargers, former San Diego. And I'm staring at it right now.

Why are we getting six and a half points? we're getting six and a half points for the Jacksonville Jaguars. And I can't wait to get into my rationale here because if you listen to the best gambling show ever with Liv, I am simply saying we are crowning the Eagles way too early. We're crowning them way too early. They've beaten the commanders, the lions, and Kirk non-prime time. Pousins. Whoopty do, Basil.

Whoopty, do. Here's a scary thought. If you want to sit there and say that the Eagles are the greatest thing since sliced bread, I'm not sitting here saying the Eagles aren't good. I'm not saying they're not a double-digit win team, a playoff team at that. Go back and look against the Lions. The Eagles allowed 14 points in the fourth quarter, a backdoor. cover to happen. And outside of a very prominent 24 point quarter in that second quarter against

the Lions, 14 points in the third goose egg in two of those quarters. Didn't score. Didn't score. Now, we're talking Monday night against Kirk Cousins. Didn't score in the second half. Last week against the commanders, do we know this? Because I'm watching the games. didn't score in the second half either. We have two out of three games. And five out of six quarters in the second half where the Philadelphia Eagles haven't scored a point. And we are getting a Jacksonville defense

that is top four in points per game right now, giving up a humble 12.7. Oh, yeah. Held, yes, a hurt Justin Herbert and a banged up Keenan Allen not playing, but a Chargers offense, otherwise top 10 to 10 points. They're the number one run D in the NFL rate,

giving up 55 yards on the ground. Number one, they are number one in turnovers. Had three turnovers week one, three turnovers week, two, six interceptions. Their top 12 in sacks. Let's go to the offensive side. Trevor Lawrence, six times. Tugs, one pick leading a top six in yards and top seven in points per game offense.

That is incredibly well balanced. Kirk scored three times. Ingram looks better than he did in New York after three games. James Robinson has hit and paid her three times. Lawrence is spreading the rock. This is only the third time in team history. The Jaguars have put up 84 points or more through three games. the previous two times, they were a playoff club.

The market hasn't caught up to the Jacksonville Jaguars yet. We're getting six and a half. Both these teams are top five in total first downs. Now, the Eagles held their last two opponents to under 10 points. Excellent defense. Phenomenal defensive backfield. Incredible front seven. But the last time Philly held three teams to under 10 was 19.

So two elements, a trend that's going to be broken with a top defense, top four defense here, Jacksonville, and a top six offense. Is Jalen Hertz going to throw all over this Jacksonville defense? And let's look at it two ways. Let's call it an offensive battle. Six and a half is too big for me. let's call it a defensive chess match. Six and a half is too big for him.

We're taking a number here. I am sitting on a Cowboys plus 650 to win the NFCE's ticket. I'm off the Philly bandwagon as far as crowning them through three weeks. What is Bill Belichick famously said? We'll see after the real season, which is after Thanksgiving. fill your belly to a first trimester dad bod and then make your assessment on the Philadelphia equals

Jaylen Hertz is your NFL MVP who wants that action who wants to take money with me on Jalen Hurts to win MVP it ain't happen if I'm wrong I'm wrong Jacksonville Jaguars shock the world let's stay in the NFC East and segue to a bet that I love and I didn't believe in this team Monday night. Couldn't do it. Couldn't have been more wrong, but I am loving what I'm seeing because I'm actually on a plus 650.

Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East ticket and it is already appreciated on Fando. I could cash out for a profit right now. Dallas is minus three hosting the Washington commanders minus 164 on the money line. Washington just doesn't play. Dallas well, three and I in their last 12. Tallas is seven and no against the spread and their last seven games within the division. If there's one thing we know about this club, they play in division

very, very well. And I look at Washington and this to me, this game, it's about both defenses. Washington's given up 22 to Jacksonville, 36 to the Lions, for goodness sake, and a loss. And 24 to the Eagles. Their best half of defensive football was the second half against Eagles, but I got a weird, weird thing on Philly with what they're doing in the second half. You just heard it. Dallas, they come in. They've given up 17 points through three weeks. They held Tom Brady to 18 for 27 on 212 and a pick.

They held Burrow to 199 and only one touchdown. Riddle yourself this. No one's even scored twice on the Cowboys in a quarter. quarter in a quarter, except for the Giants Monday night. They hung a 10 piece on them in the third. So not Brady, not Burrow, but Danny Nichols gets you 10 points against this Cowboys D as the best Costco sample of what any team offensively has done against this Dallas D. We get home field advantage here.

The Cowboys are sixth in NFL DVOA against the past. They've consistently, consistently bothered the quarterback. Carson Wentz, that was just sacked nine times against the Eagles. Cooper Rush has no intercept. We got a game manager with an excellent defense and a serviceable run game. Pollard's better than Zique. Figure it out, McCarthy. And we have a Dallas D.

I mean, Michael Parsons was sick. The Marcus Lawrence had three sacks alone Monday night. Short week, yes. But we have everything on our side here. We have the better defense, home field advantage, the better run game, the better coaching staff, not by a ton, but by a little. The more stable organization, not by a lot, by a little. And a team that in the last two weeks in this style of play as far as I'm concerned has

proven that they can win football games in different ways. You can even make the case that Dallas's best version of themselves has come out after the DAC injury. They look very poised. They look in control of the game. They don't look panicked. And that's where I always, see value in this game. Washington, they're an unstable organization and unfit for stability. They don't have any stability in any of these three games. All these games were crazy that they were in. I remember they beat Jacksonville. You could have got Jacksonville or the commanders in double digits at one point in that game. They, I don't believe, fully know who they are yet. I identity-wise in Washington, they're just kind of banking on Carson Wentz to make place flashes

of early Carson Wentz. But when you put that in a ruckus environment against a top, Dallas, if they're not top five, they are unequivocally top 10. And that's why I like a minus three. And we wrap up with a pick that I hate. I hate it. I hate it. I hate it. And the public is with me on it. I got to take the Las Vegas Raiders. that minus two and a half against the Denver Broncos. I have to do it. I have to do it. I'm sorry.

The Raiders have won four straight in this matchup. We're watching just the second time ever a team come off an 1110 yacht outing on prime time. That looked like an AL Central baseball school. I'm concerned with the Broncos offense. 43 points this season. The last time the Broncos had fewer than 50 points and two wins was pretty much when MySpace was still cooking. Dating back to last season, week 10 on, Russell Wilson has four games with no touchdowns. Four games with no touchdowns.

Only had four in the previous 68. So one out of every three in the last dozen games, Russ blinks you at the beer pong table. This Raiders team hasn't figured it out, yes. As dysfunctional as they are, it's only their third 0 and 3 start since 0.7. For the Raiders in my millennial life, that ain't that bad. They're just also, if you want any confidence. just the second team this century to begin a season with three losses by six points or fewer. I mean, this team lost to the Chargers by five, never should have lost Arizona up 20, nothing and half and lost.

And then they lost to Tennessee by two. The only team that has four losses by six or less, 1952, you have to go back to. 1952, if there's a bright spot here. The Raiders at half time on, half time on, minus what happened in Arizona have looked very, very good in two of the three games. They outgained the Chargers in the second half and the Titans, only gave up seven points to the Chargers week one in the second half, blanked, blinks the Titans in the second half.

If there is such a thing as momentum off of a loss, it is that Tennessee second half where it was all Raiders, where they had a little bit of dog and they had a lot of fight. And as far as where they've been at in two of these three games at half, they've been in rough spots. They've been trailing. They've been having to come back and play shotgun NFL Blitz 2000 offense. Doe bomb.

The Broncos haven't had a lead at halftime. yet. Two L's at half, one tie. One tie. What do we feel good about the Raiders with? Well, Adams has got a touchdown, three straight. Car is still putting up, I mean, he's turning the ball over, but he's putting up serviceable numbers. I got 21 points a game. The Broncos are 31st in the league in offense. So it's a top two defense and a bottom two offense. And a bottom two offense versus a mediocre offense and a pretty bad defense. But the angle here, it's a divisional game at home and it's a must win. They're already, and I'm already right. I already said Josh McDaniels is, is not a leader of men. I've been saying it for three weeks. I was on the

Charters week one. I have been saying it since he was hired. He is not a leader of men. But But in this instance, the Broncos, they're not going to figure it out in a week. And if it becomes a shootout, which it could, how do you not take the Raiders? They have the absolutely better offense right now. And if it becomes about moving the ball, which, let's be honest, the Broncos haven't had to go against anyone offensively yet at all. That is a true offense. They've gone against the Seahawks, the Texans. The Seahawks, the Texans, and then it inept as you saw Jimmy G's lip sync Niners' offense and their playoff.

I really like the Raiders in the spot. Could be the Joe side. I know I'm on the public side here. I cannot. The Raiders are too talented to go down O and four. So we wrap up the show. I got the Bills minus three. I got the Jags with the point.

6 and a half. I have with confidence the Cowboys minus three and I have with confidence the Raiders minus two and a half. We take two home divisional winners a field goal or under. We have the best team in football on the road and we

have an underrated, hasn't caught up to the market yet. Jaguars team versus a hot take city, everyone crowning Jaylen Hertz. They're good. They're very good. come see me when it's cold out my guys thank you for tuning in to sports gambling with money line monica we're holding off on a parlay i'll tease it with go to my action network i'll go

with a dog day parlay i did flirt with going the titans in with the points if it gets a three and a half on the road against the colts if you're curious about another dog that i like i do like them I really wanted to take the box this week. Prayers to Florida and everyone in the Tampa area and around the surrounding area, there's a hurricane. So this game may be played in Minnesota. We're seeing live movement. I can't give you a pick on that.

We don't even know where the game is going to be played. So I'm off the box. But I do think the Titans three and a half is decent play. Colts are terrible right now. It's Matt Ryan, a top five worst quarterback in the league. we're out of here. Those are my picks.

Thank you for tuning in as always. Don't forget to hug your mothers. Tata real smooth. And we get out here with this. A 2022 NFL $1,000 no sweat first bet. Here we go. Football season's underway.

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I sent you. Favorite bets for the upcoming NFL games? Oh, if you listen to the pot, you heard of baby. Give me the Bill's Mafia and a bounce back. 6-1-1 ATS after a loss. The Raymond's defense isn't there. Best player props for the weekend? I mean, my goodness gracious,

I feel sensational about what Cooper Rush is doing with C.D. Lamb and Noah Brown. I think those two men as long as they're receiving yards and reception numbers are low and the market hasn't caught up. I love a little lamb and I love a little brown on some player props. Same game parlay. Josh Allen anytime tug, Bill's Mafia money line. I'll go Lamar over rushing yards. I love it. So sign up today because this promo code Monaco is perfect for your no sweat first bet. And this is the best

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