The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Moneyline Monaco - Why I'm Betting Big on the Bucs, Chargers, Ravens and Panthers

Episode Date: September 10, 2022

One sleep away from NFL week 1, I got some fire bets to make you big money! #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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467369. Tennessee redline, 1-800-989-9-978-8-9-1-8-8-5-22-4-7-0-Y-Oming, or visit www,000-800-Gambler.net, West Virginia. All right, welcome into another episode of Sports Gambling with Moneyline, Monaco. I'm your host, Alex Monaco, fired up to be on the mic with you. week one, just one sleep away from NFL Sunday. Got a nice little Costco sample of it Thursday night. If you saw my picks very even down the middle, though I was very vocal about the Rams money line.

Caught an enormous emotional L. We did hit the under, which was a sharp pick. Also hit on that Cooper Cup anytime touchdown. Some of these trends worked out gorgeously. I felt strongest about first half under 26 and a half. It ended up moving a point at the last hour. And it was a humble 1010 outing there in the first half. But bills ultimately ran away with it.

A rare public W. You will hear me talk about where the money is on this episode as we get into picks. Yeah, prime time dog who isn't favored in Vegas. you typically want to go with it. But again, you saw, as Colin alluded to, the enormous impact to know Andrew Whitworth and the huge acquisition of Von Miller, they weren't even blitzing on Thursday night,

and the Rams just had no answer. It was on the wrong side there. But you know what? We won and went 9-0 in the Super Bowl, even picked Cooper Cup MVP with the Rams. We'll go down with them week one, game one. Hollywood loves a comeback, baby. Just ask Johnny Drum.

I don't forget to subscribe rate review, not just this pot if you enjoy yourself, all things, volume sports, best gambling show ever Tuesdays and Thursdays with Live. We are jamming. We are bringing solid value to you in the MoneyLy, Monaco podcast a couple times a week on Mondays and bookends on Fridays. If you are a new customer to FanDuel before we get to our bets, make sure you take advantage of the new customer offer bet just $5. an NFL week one, get $150 in free bets.

That's as nice of an ROI as you are going to get. Fan dual new customer offer. Don't forget it. And again, all social media, I am under Money Line Monaco, TikTok and Insta, particularly on Twitter. I'm Alex Monaco. All picks posted on Action Network. You can track me, fade me, tail me, whatever you want to do.

it is us against the books. Let's get into it. I'm going to go with the marquee matchup of the weekend, in my humble opinion, and we'll work our way down at best bets. I got three against the spreads and a humble plus money parlay for you. We hope to end with a positive by the end of the weekend. We're going to start out with $500, $500. $500 real dollars.

You can call them fake check. real shekels. We're Daniel Day Lewis over here. We're never breaking character. We're absolutely tailing our own action. So yes, I am betting on the games. I am telling you I am picking.

I'm going to start with $500 this weekend. May not spend it all. I'm going to see if I'm above 500 or below it come Monday when we recap and get into Monday night football. But my unit is going to be around $50 in this humble game. you guys will listen to up down, up down. You'll want to use a very small. In real life, it's 1 to 5% of your bankroll.

But in this fun endeavor, we're going to start with $50 a bet. And that includes the juice weighed in. So 50 down and of course not always getting 50 back with the humble minus one pens, minus 115 to the world. But we'll see how we fare. When we get to the other side. Let's get into it. Enough talking.

Here we go. First pick box, Cowboys, Tampa minus two and a half on the road, minus 136 on the money line. I'm going to take Tampa to cover at minus two and a half and minus 110. And let's get into it. We remember, this is a rematch, ironically enough, of last years, week one, much different stipulations, much different line. a Dallas Cowboys, incredible outing, back and forth game, bucks out to eke it out, 31.29. That spread was as high as eight and a half points when it closed last year.

This line, two and a half, much different teams and much different circumstances, particularly for both offensive lines. Tyron Smith out. We are looking at Ryan Jensen out, Kappa, gone. Leo Collins, gone. And you know the game is won and loss in the trenches. But I look at this game in a couple of ways. Number one, it's a new offense for the Dallas Cowboys.

You can say it or you can act like it isn't fact. But no Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, not ready to go, James Washington, the Steelers pickup, injured. So we're talking about C.D. Lamb, Shultz, and let's bank on Zeke and Pollard because this wide receiver core, not healthy coming in. Now, Godwin up to a game time decision, which does affect things a little bit. But Brady brought in a Russell, Gage, a Julio Jones, guys, a Kyle Rudolph that will all be suiting up on Sunday. You look at the box score of last year. Zeke only ran the ball 11 times for 13.

And I say that because if you take away the number one asset of a quarterback, which is Amari Cooper, which, oh, by the way, went 13 for 139 on two tugs in that week one game against the bucks. How do you replace that? I don't think you do. You have to sit here and say, where are they getting offensive production from? Because this buck's team, when they were Super Bowl dancing, they were defense impressive. just as much as offensive efficient. This team defensively has some serious players, and they've held opponents two years in a row since Tommy Tampa's been there

to under 100 yards on the ground. Now, this defense wasn't as prolific as last year, but I do like them to come in and humble the run game and put the pressure on back to try to beat them in the air. Now, I will mention also that Tom Brady is a perfect 6-0 against the Dallas Cowboys in his career. Some people like those trends. Some people don't.

How do you not mention that Brady has never lost to the Cowboys in his career? This is his last ride. It is certainly his last time at Jerry's World. Why do we not take six and overs to Cowboys? Oh, by the way, 379 yards last year, four tugs, 14 tugs, four interceptions in his career against him into factoring this decision. on top of that he's 15 and 4 in week once in his career 15 and 4 you look at the production of his key weapons and Godwin is of course potentially not suiting up but but Chris and Mike Evans both coming off 1,000 yard receiving yards and 22 touchdowns between them and

four net at 812 yards eight tugs and 4.5 yards care now this team was six and three straight up on the road, a humble three and six against the spread on the road. So some big discrepancy there, but it's under a field goal. And I think right now, when we're looking at the money, it's probably going to stay where it is as far as where the handle is and where the amount of tickets are in this one. And I hate to say it because Thursday nights was the public on the two and a half point road favorite, it is very much that in this one. Although the tickets are a lot closer on the two and a half,

it's around 57 and 55 with the bets and the money, as opposed to 67 and 66 on the money line for the bucks, but essentially the public is on the Buccaneers. And this is a game I have to pick. If you know me, you know, I pick every single primetime game. I don't stay away. I don't shy away. I want action and I want it now, baby.

And I want it on bucks cowboys. I think my second favorite bet in this one is Tom Brady over passing yards. I think he's going to light up, light up this field, no weather, love in the dome. Outside of maybe, maybe making a couple of errand throws, which he sometimes does. and see any reason why he's not cracking 300 and getting over that 276 and a half. But I'm on the Bucks and part of that is a little more of a continuity play with this Bucs offense as well as, and this mattered with McVeigh and the Rams, right? None of the Cowboys starters played in the preseason.

That was one of the most lackluster, abysmal Super Bowl defending champion first out performances I've ever seen in my millennial lifetime. You want to talk about battling uphill? Yeah. I know not all the Bucks got reps during the preseason as well. Cowboys, no starters, no snaps. I'll take Tommy Tampa in Jerry's world to kick off the show. I'm going to keep it moving here.

We're dancing. Second pick. I love it. I'm going to go fast. on this one because it's not sexy, but I am hammering the Baltimore Ravens, Maya, six and a half. Hammering that against Joe Flacco and this New York Jets Club. The Baltimore Ravens last year, down the stretch, five game losing streak combined, eight points, eight points they lost five games total by.

You can't make that Scotty Van Bad beat up. So many injuries last. year. Defensively speaking, you lost your number one corner in Marcus Peters. Ronnie Stanley, of course, Lamar got hurt down the stretch. They dealt with J.K. Dobbins out the whole year. Gus Edwards. It was trials and tribs in that backfield, and they still were top three in rushing last year. They come in, going against the Jets Club, just one in five against the spread in their last six games in week one. The Jets have lost their last four home openers. They were an abysmal cover last year. They too have new pieces.

on that club. How are they going to factor in, Garrett Wilson, Brees Hall. These things matter. And you have limited reps with Joe Flacco. Zach Wilson goes down. He's out for a few weeks.

Thankfully, he's not out for the year. What do we have to feel good about this Jets team versus a Baltimore defense that is full of dogs? Anywhere you look, Calais Campbell, Patrick Queen, Justin Houston,

go to the backfield. Williams, Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, shout out volume sports, studs safety out of Notre Dame. And I just mentioned Marcus Peters. This team defensively is going to make it a very, very long day for Joe Flacka. And this offense for the Jets was borderline inept last year. All right. Zach Wilson had nine touchdowns, all right?

He only had one game, one game over one touchdown thrown. I believe it was seven games off the Noggin, no touchdowns thrown. You're telling me, with a team, under Lamar, that's average 41.3 points per game in season openers, who is snickers hangary coming in, everyone doubting him. Lamar didn't get his contract extension. You don't think they are coming in with a game. an extra ethos path, those locals, and a serious, serious sense of urgency. Baltimore owns this series, 9-2, 4 and 1 against the spread in the last five head-to-head.

The last time, Lamar Jackson went against the Jets, 212 pass yards, 86 rush shots, five passing touchdowns, people. They average 41.3 in the season open. I like the Ravens in the first quarter, the first half to cover. I like double result. I like everything about this game. And yes, we're on the public side on this one. But I have no confidence, zero in the New York Jets.

And I host a TV show in New York. So that ain't easy for me to say. Ravens minus six and a half. Let's keep it moving. The start of the NFL season is here in the best place to practice your touchdown dance is on Fandul, America's number one sports book. Fan Duel is kicking off week one with a no sweat bet for everybody. It doesn't matter if you're a new customer or already have an account.

You'll get free bets back if you don't win. Just log in and see for yourself. For me, free bet, anything on the line? Give me the L.A. Chargers in a rebuttal at, so-fi against the rival AFC West Raiders. I'm not a believer in McDaniels. I think this Chargers team has

a chance to go all the way. Love the defense to upgrades. They're going to take advantage of the new right side of that Raiders front. So, new to FanDual Sportsbook, just sign up with promo code Monaco to get started. That's

promo code Monaco. Either way, celebrate the return of football with a no sweat, bet during week one. Make every moment more with Fandul an official sports betting partner of the NFL. Disclaimer, 21 plus in select states. Refund issued as non-witrable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. Max refund, $5 and less otherwise specified.

Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.Fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1,800 gambler or visit Fanduel.com forward slash R. G, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois. 1-800 next step or text next step to 533442, Arizona, 1888-78-88-889-777 or visit ccpg.org or forward slash chat, Connecticut, 18777-70-70-stop,

Louisiana, 18778, Hope New York or text Hope, New York, 467-39 New York, Tennessee redline, 18809-9-7-89, Tennessee, 1,800 522470, Kansas or Wyoming, or visit 1-800 gambler.net, West Virginia. I'm on this one. I co-sign Uncle Collins on it.

It's an emotional pick, but I'm going to get into the macro as well as the micro of this. I'm on the Panthers to win this pickum right now on Fandool. The line is chilling at exactly. Exactly minus 104. So the Panthers a plus one and a half. We'll take a minus 104 on the money line. Give it to me all day.

X versus the X, baby. We got Baker, Mr. Progressive, going against the old team, and it is going to be as advertised, absolutely sensational Jacoby percent, who makes it the 32nd quarterback to start for the Browns this century, make it up. The Brown's coming in the only active franchise to never beat Carolina on the road. This is the last team that has not got it done and they will not get it done. This is a couple of elements here. You have the emotion with Baker going against the ex, Stefansky, everyone that

doubted him. I mean, he got treated. He got treated like a pack of Skittles. He turned this franchise that was utterly dysfunctional around as far as. as bringing them to the playoffs, adding in some sort of stability. Now, I'm with Colin, not exactly super quarterback heel, but I love the energy and the competitiveness

that Baker Mayfield brings. And let's take a look at what Brissette has to go against. This Panthers defense is not getting enough credit. And I'm nervous for Brissette because he is not a push the ball down the field. Quarterback never has been. Average 7.5 yards per pass in 2021. Listen to this.

So J.C. Treter is gone. Cleveland released him. They got a new starting center. They got a rookie guard. Jack Conklin, their best lineman left tackle out, out on Sunday. And they got to go against a Panthers Blitz team that loves. throwing extra pass rushers, 33.7% of the time. That's third most in the NFL coming off last year. You got Brian Byrne, Shaq Thompson up front, and they will have time because of this Panthers

secondary. Let's not forget, Xavier Woods, former stud for Minnesota, now in Panthers Blue. They got C.J. Anderson. I think underrated corner from Jacksonville, J.C. Horn, of course, can be a lockdown defensive secondary person. And this and this secondary, 41.2% success rate as far as last year, they only allowed 192 pass yards. Fourth lowest, fourth lowest as far as success rate with rival passing attacks.

Where is Jacoby Berset going to go? Here's the other element. 77% chance of thunder showers. All right, that's more than 60% from Brian Fantana. in Anchorman. So if there is a damp, wet, rainy Sunday game,

it's on Nick Chubb and Hunt because Jacoby Brissette Mr. Checkdown ain't spreading the field with Cooper or throwing deep to Donovan People's Jones. It's Checkdown City

and it's a lot of Karim Hunt and a lot of probably Nojoku. And I look at this offense and they're not terrible. This team's really not terrible. I think Moore and Anderson with McCaffrey, and they brought in Higgins, a familiar teammate for Baker,

which you got to love. We have to feel somewhat decent about this team. Baker didn't have a long chance to win this job. So I look at the pressure here for, oh, and greedy, by the way, best corner in my opinion, outside of, of course, their lockdown number one. Let's take a look at it.

Is out. So if Greedy's out and you got to deal with a decent amount of speed between Anderson and DJ Moore, Greedy Williams is out, that's a lot, a lot of pressure on Denzo Ward. I like the Panthers. It's pretty public heavy on the Panthers. I'm sorry. Pickham game backup quarterback on the road.

A ton of offseason issues and a decimated offensive line. Let's not make it difficult. Panthers money line. Let's wrap it up with a parlay here. Plus 116 on the Fandul sports book. I'm taking the Chargers. I'm taking the Chiefs. All right.

I love the. Chargers over the Raiders Sunday night. Sunday afternoon. I love it. Beer pong rebuttal game from the last game of the season that should have went the Chargers way. The Chargers special team gets in the way. Special teams gets in the way again of this team. Now, I'm from San Diego. I know this team backwards and forwards. It's my toxic X. If you've been following me, I'm in, I'm out. I'm out. I'm in with them. This team is disgustingly stacked. There's only three ways to build a championship Super Bowl roster. And one of them is stack a team with a quarterback on a rookie deal. And that is Justin Herbert. He has broke almost every record you could break

not just in Chargers land. Dan Fouts, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers. NFL land has thrown for the most yards and most completions in NFL history in the first two years. He's thrown for just under 10,000 yards and two seasons. It's an anomaly. Vegas needs the Chargers, too. We are on the sharp side. Raiders money line, 88% of the money, 58% of the bets, everyone is slamming.

This Raiders team, you do realize the right side of their offensive line is completely reshuffled around two new lands. You know who they have to deal with? Khalil Matt. They have to deal with Joey Bosa. We got a shutdown corner now.

We have to deal with in J.C. Jackson, Derwin James. This team is stacked everywhere. And they play week one very well historically, 7-1 and 2 against the spread since Justin Herbert's been there, five and two covering in the last seven games in September. Here's another caveat. on. In September games against the Raiders, the Chargers have won four straight, four straight.

I know the Raiders could very well be a force to reckon with. I've gone on record saying, I like Josh McDaniels. I don't find him to be a leader of men. I think he is a Mad in 98 as far as offensive coordinating and play calling goes. Matt in 98. I'm not disrespecting the guy. he had one of the best leaders in college football history and had no idea how to handle it. Josh McDaniels is going to be overwhelmed on Sunday. And you're going to watch what this Raiders team looks like without the same offensive line

and a highly improved L.A. Chargers defense. I say San Diego. It's very hard for me not to. this Chargers team's worst hole was running defensive run game. They got a lot better. I also feel confident that this Raiders defense, which was not impressive last year, is not going to be able to slow this team down. So I'm on the Chargers sharp side as far as fading the public.

The public is on the Raiders. Now, the three and a half, you don't want to take. Chargers minus three and a half. That is a trap. This game screams 2724. It does. You do not want to take in the betting world, divisional dogs at home as the favorite if the lion's three and a half.

We've seen it too many times, but I do love the Chargers on the money line and I love the chiefs who go against the Cardinals team who failed to cover and spiral down the last stretch of the month and a half of the season did not cover in five of the last six. This team started out seven and oh and found a way to mess around and not win the NFC West. They come in with a pun of injuries. Hopkins, of course, out for the first six weeks. Ertz has been limited practice all week.

Apparently Rondale Moore is now not going to be dancing. Their number two cornerback, Anthony, Antonio Hamilton is out. J.J.Y is questionable. Their starting center and left guard are game. game time decisions and what do we have on the chief's side? Nothing but health and nothing but new weapons for Patty Mahomes to come out and ball with this chief's team under the Andy Reid coaching leadership is four and one against the spread in their last five in week one.

They were a perfect five and oh last year against the NFC and a much better cover than we thought as favorites. I actually do like them to cover this game. This was a rare Cardinals team that was better on the road last year than at home, which is really hard to even consider. But I think the chiefs with time to prepare, when you have Biena and you have Reed and you have Mahomes having extra time to prepare for a defense that I think is going to be serviceable, but this particular week is going to have some challenges.

You got to go with the better club. And this to me is a Patty Mahomes. coming out party as far as spreading the rock around. New pieces, juju, scantling, Skymore, this rookie, going in deep fantasy leagues. And of course, the security blanket Kelsey. I think we have advantages on both sides of the ball. I think it's going to be a lot of pressure on Kyler and Murray. I think James Connor is going to have a serviceable day at best.

And I like the chiefs in this one on the money line with the chargers plus money. So we're going to throw a humble 50 on all four of these and hope to come out up. Again, just brick by brick, brick, brick. You don't want to get it all in one day. We're somewhat chasing because of the Rams, but because of the under and the Cooper Cup props. We're sitting right about even minus the juice. And we'll keep it going. Again, all my picks posted on Action Network, make sure to check me out there if you want

to tail picks, Moneyline, Monaco on all things social. and of course any subscriptions, reviews, ratings on these podcasts go a long way. Sports Gamma with Money Line Monaco. I'm your host Alex Monaco. Enjoy week one, baby. I certainly will. Ravens cover. Panthers win, box win, Chargers and Chiefs.

Get the Money Line parlay done. You as always, don't forget to hug your mothers. We will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend. Enjoy week one. Tata real smooth. Volume